The Mandela effect for me this week was believing that homecoming was something that happened toward the end of a football season. I could not wrap my head around the fourth game of the season being this like climactic moment. But I suppose it is the halfway point, mercifully.
Game started out pretty much how we expected. We held up pretty well on defense, only allowing two touchdowns through the first quarter and a half despite our offense getting just two first downs during that stretch. I can’t properly summarize what happened next. We drove into enemy territory. Momentum seemed to be carrying us to a 14-7 halftime deficit. The drive stalled. We punted. Pretty good punt. A few penalties. Our defense had them in 2nd and 30 on their own 25-yard line. They ran some goofy bootleg shit that caused a busted coverage and we let up a full-field TD. After that, there was a fumble. There was a pick. There was a punt that barely passed the line of scrimmage. There was another fumble. We went into halftime down 42-0. We spent the second half just trying to hold water and eventually lost 69-0. But some other school in our area lost 76-0 the night before, so we have that going for us.
Next week, we’ll have grade checks, so we’ll lose our starting QB, one of our starting WRs, our starting RB/SS, and a handful of other guys. Then we’ll cut our shitty attitude guys (finally). We’ll have like 20 players left, most of them underclassmen, and we’ll continue to get our asses kicked, but at least we’ll be growing something instead of just digging a hole.
Can’t say the same for the Bucs. Pretty sure we are just going to flail in open water until we are put out of our misery. Do you understand how bad the offense is if we can only score one touchdown on the Browns? Do you understand how bad the defense is if we let Big Perv complete 80% of his passes for ten yards per completion and no turnovers? We had three hours to draw up a gameplan to gain 20 yards, and we lost seven. We’re ass!
Right now, it looks like we’ll realistically be 2-7 heading into our bye. We might be able to push it to 4-5. We’re definitely going 0-3, though. Our only hope is that Kyler is truly as bad as he was in those first ten plays before getting concussed. I don’t think it matters. If Big Perv can move the ball at will, I think the Vikings can bench Kyler for Wentz at half and still beat us.
I also think the NFL is famous for having like half of its games go off the rails. All it takes is turnover luck or a timely broken tackle or an injury at a key spot. But straight up, the Bucs are shaping up to be one of the worst five teams in the league, and everyone is getting fired.
Mortydome was all luck until some jackass decided we needed to play against the median, so now even though I head into the weekend down 44 after facing just one opposing player, I can’t just bail and look to next week. I have to stay invested beyond this specific suck to find out whether or not I also suck in general.
Through two weeks, we’re getting more data on who will probably suck in general for the majority of the season. Justin Herbert comes to mind. Drake Maye. The Miami Dolphins. The Bears with their top two QBs injured. The Packers run game without STA. The wholly flawed plan of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jaxson Dart’s sense of self-preservation. Jayden Daniels’ joints. The Cleveland Browns against anybody but the Bucs and probably the Dolphins.
Oliver’s three-QB plan was looking pretty bad until Coleman desperately traded for a Lamar even though he already had the second-best QB in fantasy already on the roster. I made an offer for Bijan before the season. I understand the desire to add Bijan. I do not understand the willingness to trade him away. You can stumble into a starting QB. You can’t stumble into a 25 points per week RB who regularly flirts with 40. But I also understand the desire to add Lamar. And I was/am (losing faith by the second) also expecting a huge season from Ladd McConkey, but the rib injury… I’m not arguing anybody got fleeced. I just don’t think I would have traded Bijan without getting two bonafide stars back. Ladd’s not quite that. McLaurin is not quite that.
But who is that? Who is him for real? Almost everyone we drafted in the first round. If I counted Josh Allen as a first-rounder, then we nailed it. But Saquon, yeeesh. Shoulda gone Jeanty. Pretty solid second round, injuries aside. Pickens is the only healthy player underperforming. Achane is underperforming, but the difference between him and Hampton is touchdowns, which are obviously important but not as reliable as yards when predicting future performance. And that’s the concern with Jeremiyah Love, who has 95 total yards through two games. His schedule does not let up until playoffs, so Kennedy just needs eleven more IDP 30-bombs and he’s through the woods.
Our third round is usually a tragedy, but we’re doing well right now. Nobody did any cute shit. Literally just a perfect run of entering-their-prime players. The worst picks are the last two, T-Mac failing to become the dude over Jalen Coker and Jadarian Price failing to break the committee chain gang. Can’t complain, though, because the entire fourth round is ass except for the Pats RBs and Bhayshul Tuten.
The Him Report beyond Round 4: Christian Watson (Cam), Hutch (Shelby), Watt (Kennedy), Kincaid (Spe), Parker Washington (Sean), Kelce (Corey), Chuba (Brian), Schwesinger (Shelby), Van Ginkel (Coleman), a three-pick heater of Coker (Max), Warner (Evan), and Mahomes (Oliver) in the 10th round, Nakobe Dean (Coleman), Budda (Oliver), Dak (Doak), McLaughlin (Corey), Likely (Evan), Aaron Jones (Doak), Shough (Sean, dropped), Dallas Turner (Doak, dropped).
The keepers are a mixed bag.
Early Hims – Ken Walker (Cam), Kyren (Coleman), Davante (Max), McBride (Sean), Bucky (Corey), DeVonta (Spe)… 6/12 not awesome
Mid Hims – Irish Kyle (Coleman), Purdy (Kennedy), STA-WAS (Corey)… 3/12 mother of god
Late Hims – Caleb (Kennedy), Goff (Max), DJ Moore (Doak)… 3/12 yeah we suck.
Evan’s probably got the worst keeper results, which is fair when your process is just pick Bucs. Egbuka is being outscored by all three of Aaron Jones, Rashee, and Montgomery. Baker is just a mess, so Evan could have had Baun there and had an extra 7th. Gainwell is a bust (RB67), and Evan picked him over Chuba (RB7).
Max picked Rashid Shaheed (WR91) over Christian Watson (WR1, technically). I essentially picked Drake Maye over D’Andre Swift, so I am filling up the bathtub and plugging in the toaster. Spencer knew better than to keep Dart, so that’s karma. The only other “miss” was Kennedy keeping Myles Garrett rather than make a trade, but the going rate for an early keeper was a 5th rounder, and Myles Garrett would have been a 5th rounder. But in my opinion, Chris Olave and D’Andre Swift were obvious values who you could have had for a 5th whereas they actually got drafted in the 3rd. Whatever. I think Kennedy is Him’d to the gills right now, so it does not matter.
I am seriously behind on work, so I need to cut to the chase now.
Oliver over Doak
44 points from a single player on Thursday night will tilt the scales. I’m not counting myself out, but I may have to start Jameis after roster-locking myself by trading Henderson for Pollard and Downs. Bad trade? Absolutely. I tried rooting for the Pats for two weeks. It’s not for me. I’ve rooted for Jameis Winston for almost 15 years. Year after year, it’s the gift that keeps on giving. So I will enjoy some Jameis while Oliver caves my face in. Try to regroup next week.
Shelby over Brian
This is the week Herbert and Pickens get back on track. Maybe Chase Brown joins them, but it’s not necessary. Brian is starting Blake Corum, and it’s probably his best play when you look at the rest of his bench. Bo Nix against the Rams in primetime will be a disaster. Brian, I will trade you a QB. Come get a real QB. Go pick up some real IDPs. Shelby’s best player (JT) has a bad matchup, so that gives Brian some daylight. The Herbert breakout should squash that, and the IDP discrepancy should nail it shut.
Kennedy over Corey
Just shaping up to be a Kennedy kind of year. When you get the QB-RB combo on an elite offense, you tend to get 3-4 TDs a week out of it, so as long as the rest of your team is normal, you’ve got an easy path to playoffs. I didn’t love Kennedy’s draft, but early returns say he crushed. Injuries are piling up, but the depth is there thanks to two extra picks near the top of the draft. Corey’s coming off a big week, but the matchups make it seems really unlikely he gets anywhere near that this week, especially when you consider he finished in last place Week 1. I would pivot from Stafford @DEN to Shough for a week, I would bench STA-WAS to put Tyler Warren in the flex, and I would replace Arvel Reese. But also, I am bracing for my worst season ever, so my advice this year should be all-time bad.
Cameron over Max
Thursday action shouldn’t influence the overall picture, but 45 from the two WR spots is a decent advantage, especially with Max’s TE only scoring 0.5 and Max having to start Rashid Shaheed and banged-up Jalen Coker. Also, Max added the most random IDP to fill his DB spot this week. I have never heard of Lions rookie DB Keith Abney. He did not play last week after playing just 28% of snaps in Week 1. I think Max needs to, like, start a dude he’s vaguely heard of. If you want to start a Lions’ DB, start Chuck Clark. It doesn’t matter who you start because Gibbs, Walker, and Henderson are going to combine for 60, which will take half of Max’s team to match. The X-factor is QB, where Trevor Lawrence could struggle against the Pats D while Jared Goff thrives against the Jets.
Sean over Evan
It’s as simple as Josh Allen, even though I think Evan has a lot of advantages elsewhere. The problem is Bacon n Eggs against the Vikings. Hampton, Jefferson, and Olave can cover, but you really need everyone to pull their own weight against the Josh Allen team. Technically the game will come down to Monday night with Sean’s Saquon-Wicks vs. Evan’s Thieneman-Baun. I don’t like Saquon’s season-long outlook, but I like him on long rest against a bad Bears defense. I think Evan should spot-start Darnold this week (or trade for Drake Maye).
Coleman over Spencer
This is the week Oliver and Coleman both reap the rewards of the Bijan-Lamar trade. Spencer has the best two players in the matchup in Jeanty and JSN, and it seems like Dalton Kincaid is drinking Brock Bowers’ secret stuff, but that and DeVonta Smith is it. I’m starting Kyler against the Bucs in my other league, but it’s out of spite. I don’t think it’s a good matchup for him. I think we’re gonna hound his shit and make it a game. But I also see the potential for us to be so bad that we fire Bowles midseason, so let’s ride. Coleman does have a nice, well-rounded team as a result of the Bijan trade. I think I would start Tate over Wilson at WR, but it’s probably a wash. The X-factor is Monday night action. Spencer has three players (Burden, DeVonta, Campbell) to Coleman’s zero. The saving grace for Coleman is that Tyler Bagent is the one throwing to Burden. Spe should probably stick with Etienne one more week.
The first two weeks each saw six 2-0 teams and six 0-2 teams. Week 3 will be a trend-breaker, and this area is no exception. I think Cameron, Evan, Shelby, and I will go 1-1 this week, leaving Brian, Max, Spencer, and Corey as the 0-2 teams, meaning Brian will be alone at 0-6 and have his finger all on that trade trigger.
Bless.
