We lost the coin toss and had to receive. The first kick return of the year was not a disaster, but a late hit penalty set us up at the 20. The first play was a run for no gain. The second play was an interception. The other team eventually scored a TD. The second drive lasted one play longer and ended in another interception, another TD from the opposing offense, but at least they missed the PAT. The third drive had no interceptions but instead two sacks, the second resulting in a safety. You might think being down 15-0 after eight minutes and 45 seconds is bad, but have you tried being down 22-0 after nine minutes? All you have to do is give up a TD on the ensuing safety kickoff, which is surprisingly easy when your starting kicker has to miss the game because he did not log enough practices the three weeks leading up to this game.
Second quarter was pretty good. No turnovers. Went into halftime down 29-0. Probably not a great sign for our second half that our starting QB was in tears and absolutely shellshocked. For context, we were playing a team that started last season 11-0 until losing in the state semifinals. They had twice as many players as we did, and the opening warmups was right out of the first act of The Big Green. But dudes were resilient. Our captains insisted we were “still in this thing.” Coach drew up a blocking change where we wouldn’t pull our guards anymore since the opposing linemen were just flying through the holes straight to the mesh point.
Third quarter was our first true kickoff of the year, and the coverage resulted in two players squared up with the returner on the 25-yard line, but nevertheless, the returner simply changed direction and that was somehow that. He found the sideline and eventually scored. At that point, the give up began. We responded with an 85-yard drive to the opposing 4-yard line. We did a few things, including calling a timeout to avoid a delay of game only to immediately commit a delay of game afterward, which should be impossible. Then our QB through an impossible ball through the hands of a dropping LB, only to find the dropping hands of an open TE.
We lost 51-0. There was a world where is was more like 34-14, and there was a world where it was more like 70-0, so we’ll take what we can get. Were there bright spots? Sure. I gave some young guys some playing time, and they made the most of it and were grateful for the opportunity. It was very rewarding.
Now, onto the part where I project my internal issues onto this fantasy football league.
Cameron – Jonathon Brooks over Brandon Aubrey
Coleman – Nakobe Dean over so many QBs
Shelby – (honestly, no notes; mistake-free draft)
Brian – AJ Brown over Jeremiyah Love
Kennedy - LaPorta over Pickens
Oliver – Lamar over Jeremiyah Love
Evan – BTJ over Evans
Max – Montgomery over Hampton/Love
Doak – TreVeyon Henderson as a concept
Corey – Sutton over Pierce/Parker
Spe – Burden over Odunze/Jameson/McLaurin
Sean – Josh Allen in his age-30 season
Sean – Saquon, Bill
Spe – JSN
Corey – Tyler Warren
Doak – Evans
Max – Hurts
Evan – Judkins
Oliver – Swift, Kittle
Kennedy – Jeremiyah Love, Tre Tucker
Brian – JD
Shelby – Pickens, Hutch, Kraft
Coleman – robust-RB-to-future-picks pipeline
Cameron – Teeny P, D. Hunter
S-Tier QBs
1. Josh - Sean
2. Lamar – Oliver
A-Tier QBs
3. Burrow – Oliver
4. Herbert - Shelby
5. Daniels – Brian
6. Maye – Doak
7. Caleb – Kennedy
8. Lawrence – Cameron
9. Hurts – Max
B-Tier
10. Goff – Max
11. Stafford – Corey
12. Mahomes – Oliver
13. Dak – Doak
14. Purdy – Kennedy
15. Nix – Brian
16. Love – Shelby
17. Kyler – Corey
C-Tier
18. Baker – Evan
19. Darnold – Coleman
20. Dimes – FA
D-Tier
21. Dart – Spencer
22. Willis – FA
23. Rodgers – FA
24. Shough – Sean
25. Mendoza – Coleman
Notes:
I wanted to put Herbert in the elite group real bad, and Daniels could work his way up. I was also tempted to leave Josh in the elite group alone because I have concerns about Lamar based on his health, O-line uncertainty, and Derrick Henry’s usage.
Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye can easily play their way into the elite group (he finished QB2 last season). Healthy Joe Burrow should be the favorite to lead the league in passing TD, but Stafford did that last year and still finished third. To finish QB1 as a pocket passer, you need 50 TDs. (Burrow diiiid throw 60 his Heisman season.)
I have Hurts in the A-tier assuming Tush Push. The Eagles let their S-tier OL coach walk this offseason and hired the Vikings OL coach to go along with the Packers OC. Neither of those teams have had much o-line acumen that last few years. It could be a complete disaster for the Tush Push and the offense. But if the Tush continues to be Pushed, then Hurts is a potential top-5 like he is every year.
Kyler’s rushing prowess is probably less than you think. In his second season, he rushed for 800 yards and 11 TDs. His next best was two years ago, at 572 and 5. It was uncoincidentally his first full season since that PR year. He just turned 29, his injury last year wasn’t actually a season-ender; he could be good for an average of those two prime years. 600 and 8? If he did that and had normal passing stats, he would be QB10. If he had his best passing stats (again that second season), he would be QB3. I wanted to rank him C-tier, but it would mostly be based on injury risk.
I don’t like Jaxson Dart as a person or a player. I think he’s talented but dumb, his offensive coordinator is bad, and his head coach wants to run the ball. The single-game ceiling is strong. This is the same OC (Nagy) who helped Trubisky torch the Bucs for 6 TDs back in 2018. The floor is high, and we’re not doing injury risk. I just don’t like his face or his personality.
I really want to rank Willis higher, but I’m too chickenshit. He’s in the elite speed club with Lamar, JD, and Caleb. He needs a less common NFL name than Malik, and Willis sounds kinda soft. He needs to be named Bruce. He needs to be named Butch Coolidge. If he’s good this year, I’m calling him Butch Coolidge. I can’t call him Big Willie or even Big Will. Maybe Fresh Prince, but we’re getting way out of our lane.
S-Tier RBs
1. Bijan – Coleman
2. Gibbs – Cameron
3. CMC – Kennedy
4. JT – Shelby
5. Henry – Doak
6. Saquon – Sean
A-Tier RBs
7. Cook – Max
8. Achane – Corey
9. Jeanty – Spencer
10. Kyren – Coleman
11. Brown – Shelby
12. Walker – Cameron
13. Love – Kennedy
B-Tier RBs
14. Hampton – Evan
15. Etienne – Spencer
16. Swift – Oliver
17. Judkins – Evan
18. Breece – Coleman
19. Javonte - Sean
19. Price – Doak
20. Monty – Max (s-tier Tiny Toons reference)
21. Goatwell- Evan
22. Bucky – Corey
23. Henderson - Doak
24. Teeny – Cameron
C-Tier RBs
25. Tuten – Kennedy
26. Skatman – Oliver
27. Rhamondre - Cameron
28. Dowdle – Sean
29. Warren – Oliver
30. MF BILL – Sean
31. Aaron Jones – Doak
32. Mason – Max (F-tier Bob the Builder)
33. Woody Marks – Oliver
34. JK Dobbins – Spencer
35. Chuba – Brian
36. Jonathon Brooks – Cameron
D-Tier RBs
37. Corum - Brian
38. Monangai – Shelby
39. RJ Harvey – Brian
40. Mike Washington – Doak
41. Allgeier – Sean
42. Brian Robinson - FA
F-Tier (unranked)
Jonah Coleman – Shelby
Chris Rodriguez – Max
Rachaad – Coleman (née Sean)
Bigsby – Sean
Notes:
I had Henderson more or less tied with Javonte and Price headed into the draft. The injury and the overwhelming public opinion that Rhamondre is the starter has me shook. Judkins was the better pick, but the Browns are just so concerning. If I could do it again I would either stick with Henderson or pivot to a WR (McLaurin or Odunze, based on how the board fell).
STA-GB gets no ranking.
We have received word on who is starting for the Vikings. Jones and Mason have been named co-starters. Aaron Jones might be washed, or he might be Fred Jackson 2.0. Jordan Mason is just Tyler Allgeier with better branding.
I cowardly ranked a lot of timeshares together. I was planning on drafting none of them. I only drafted Jones because I was short on RBs and it was the 13th round.
James Cook looks low to you, probably. I think he maxed out last year and still failed to hit 2000 yards. If his ceiling is 1900 yards and 18 TDs (separate seasons for those PRs), he can only hit RB1 in a down year for the position. Henry can still get 2K and 20 on rushing alone. Okay, he’s never scored 20 TD either, but I think the Ravens know this, and I think the plan for Derrick Henry is the plan for David Justice: squeeze every last ounce of good football. The difference is Derrick Henry isn’t on a normal RB timeline. Most RBs are dust by now. Derrick Henry’s still in his prime, perhaps the tail-end of his prime, but his prime nonetheless.
Bijan was indeed my pre-draft RB1. I had the top pick in my other league and picked Gibbs. I’m not brave! If I were brave, I would draft CMC first. He’s got the highest ceiling. He’s one of very few players I will fade due to injury risk. In fact the whole 49ers offense is on that short list. I just can’t quit Mike Evans.
Zeus-Tier WRs
1. Chase – Oliver
2. Jefferson - Evan
S-Tier WRs
3. Sun God – Brian
4. Puke (intentional) – Sean
5. JSN – Spencer
6. Nabers – Brian
7. Pickens - Shelby
A-Tier
8. Lamb - Corey
9. Davante Adams – Max
10. AJ Brown – Doak
11. Waddle – Doak
12. Nico – Oliver
13. Ladd – Oliver
14. DeVonta – Spencer
15. Olave – Evan
16. DJ Moore – Doak
17. Flowers – Max
18. Garrett Wilson – Kennedy
19. London – Cameron
20. T-Mac – Kennedy
21. McLaurin – Oliver
22. Rashee – Sean
B-Tier
23. Egbuka – Evan
24. Odunze – Shelby
25. Tee – Shelby
26. Jameson – Corey
27. Evans – Doak
28. Pierce – Sean
29. Parker Washington – Sean
30. Marv – Evan
31. Godwin – Brian
32. Pittman – Doak
33. Metcalf – Kennedy
34. Watson - Cameron
C-Tier
35. Shaheed – Max
36. BTJ – Evan
37. Michael Wilson – Coleman
38. Burden – Spencer
39. Tate – Coleman
40. Sutton – Corey
41. Addison – Spencer
42. QJ – Cameron
43. Deebo – Brian
44. Worthy – Corey
45. KCC – Shelby
46. Reed – Coleman
47. Wan’Dale – Shelby
48. Downs – Cameron
Notes:
STA-WAS not ranked but should finish top-30. STA-FA not ranked but if someone signs him, he’s probably scoring solid points, as well.
Had to create a new tier to separate the potential 2K yard, 20 TD guys from the 1800-yd, 15 TD guys. I actually wouldn’t mind tossing Nabers in that Z-tier; I just doubt his target volume so it would take JSN efficiency to get Nabers to WR1.
A few potential surprises:
Zay Flowers is no Sun God, but he can get that target share. He can see 160 targets and catch 115 of them. At that point, though it will look different, he can certainly beat Amon-Ra’s yardage (but probs not the TDs; size does matter in the end zone). This makes Zay a strong candidate for the top 10.
George Pickens shouldn’t surprise anyone by outscoring CeeDee Lamb. He did it last year in totals and averages. I don’t do a lot of drafts, but it feels like Lamb over Pickens is not only the consensus but unanimous pick. Unless Pickens has a mental breakdown, it’s a given he matches Lamb in targets and bests him in yards per catch while having better endzone prowess. Lamb is basically JSN: great player, needs legendary luck/target-share/efficiency to finish at the top.
Luther Burden is the fourth option in the Bears’ offense. He’s in good company getting drafted next to Jameson Williams, who projects as the fourth option in Detroit. However, Odunze was still on the board. He is above Burden in the pecking order. The only reason it didn’t look like that last year was that Odunze played most of the year on a partially broken foot. Burden was an electric college player and easily the best player on Missouri for his collegiate career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his pro career go the way of Sammy Watkins, CJ Spiller, even Percy Harvin or Cordarrelle Patterson. Without return duties to pad his stats, he’s a boom-bust, dependent on breaking huge plays for lack of consistent target share.
Egbuka will be ranked higher next year. The OC change, the last year of Good Godwin, the generally meh vibe around the Bucs this year, all combined to keep him maxed out at like WR15 IF his toe is good. Turf toe lasts forever. Every time you test it too early and fail, you set it back at least a week. Ideally, he’s out for the first 2-3 weeks.
The other potential shock that isn’t really a shock: Deebo reclaiming his old job and fucking crushing it. Three years ago, he had 1100 yards and 12 TDs. The last two years, he’s averaged 800 and 5. A handful of broken tackles can bump that up to 1K and 7.
I think the big misses are the rookie picks. Tate is the only one I see avoiding waivers. The others are a matter of time. The WRs still available that need to be on teams will be apparent after Week 1.
If you need WR help now, look at Dontayvion Wicks. He’s technically taking AJ Brown’s spot in Philly. Makai Lemon missed too much time, won’t be involved enough the first month or two. Seriously consider taking a flier on a Dolphins WR. Caleb Douglas is the preseason darling, but Chris Bell is more coveted draft pick. Malik Washington is the incumbent and the most likely to get designed targets and punt returns (but it will be a 2024 Wan’Dale situation where he gets 100 targets but at like seven yards per).
S-Tier TEs
1. Bowers – Doak
2. Loveland – Brian
3. McBride – Sean
4. Warren – Corey
5. Kittle – Oliver
A-Tier TEs
6. Kraft – Shelby
7. LaPorta – Kennedy
8. Pitts – Max
B-Tier TEs
9. Kelce – Corey
10. Fannin – Coleman
11. Andrews – Kennedy
12. Likely – Evan
13. Kincaid – Spencer
14. Goedert – Cameron
15. Henry - Max
C-Tier TEs
16. Strange – Oliver
17. Juwan – Evan
18. Sadiq – FA
19. Gesicki – FA
20. Barner – FA
21. Jake Ferguson – Cameron
Gonna be a crazy TE season. The Kittle disrespect has gone too far. In hindsight, I’d rather have Kittle in the 6th than Bowers in the 2nd. Like, I could have gone with Jeremiyah Love and not had to make the Henderson pick. Hell, I would go back and take Love in the 2nd and Kittle in the 4th at this point. Kittle will be limited for a few weeks, but I’m not concerned about re-injury. That’s one crazy white boy.
Still, I don’t see Kittle leading his team in targets. I just think he can hit 1,000 yards and 10 TDs without doing that, which would have smoked everyone but McBride last year while remaining within 2 ppg of McBride.
But yeah, Bowers, Loveland, and McBride should each see 10 targets per game. Bowers is the most likely, McBride is actually the least likely because the team needs to make a critical assessment of Marv in advance of his extension eligibility in the upcoming offseason. McBride should be scorching hot to start the year and cool to zero by the playoffs. If he’s healthy all year, he’ll play. But if he gets hurt after Thanksgiving, and the Cardinals have like three wins, he’s getting shut down for the year. The Raiders can’t afford to do that while evaluating and developing Mendoza. The Bears will be too competitive. The 49ers and probably the Colts will be too competitive.
The dark horse TE1 is Kraft. The Packers have never established the target totem pole with this group. They paid Watson “a lot,” but it was Alec Pierce money, and Tyler Warren is about to out-target Alec Pierce. Kraft is probably going to run slow this year, so the way he gets to max output is probably off the table. But not definitely.
LaPorta is just an insane pick in the 2nd. He was TE1 his rookie year before Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs established themselves, but that was only 900 yards and 10 TDs. Then he was TE6 but with only 700 and 7. To draft a TE in the 2nd, that’s Gronk shit. Gronk was a perennial 1-2 turn pick because in his second year, he had 1300 yards and 17 TDs. When you draft a TE ahead of A-tier RBs and WRs, it’s because you think he will compete, not outscore, but compete with those RBs and WRs.
Fannin is risky this year because the people who drafted him are gone. Kelce is beyond old but not quite washed. I have concern about Andrews’ longevity. If he looks slow to start the year, I’m out.
IDP Ranks by MD Team
1. Kennedy – Garrett, Watt, Oluokun, Winfield
2. Brian – Burns, Verse, Sherwood*, Derwin
3. Doak – Anderson, Jordyn, Tremaine, Tykee
4. Oliver – Bonitto, Roquan, B.Young, Budda
5. Cameron – D.Hunter, J.Campbell, Bush, Cross
6. Shelby – Hutch, Schwes, Edge, Downs
7. Coleman – AVG, Tuli, Nakobe, Irish Kyle
8. Evan – A.Carter, Baun, Warner, Thieneman
9. Max – Maxx, Bolton, Landman, DeJean
10. Sean – C.Young, Ernie, Cashman, Lassiter
11. Corey – Bain, Styles, Reese, Curl
12. Spe – Simmons, Bernard, White, T.Hunter
*smh shoulda been Ramsey
Kicker Ranks
1. Kennedy – Aubrey
2. Doak – Ka’imi
3. Sean – Dicker
Everyone else – trash
12. Magnum Dongs (Brian)
The RB situation is so bleak. The Broncos are going full-blown hot-hand committee, so Harvey is going to be inconsistent at best. Think Saints backfield circa 2010. For every game he gets 20 FP, he’ll have two under 10. Brian’s best hope is that Jonathon Brooks suffers a third ACL tear, leaving Chuba to rule the backfield by default once more. Brian is stacked at WR, even with the AJ Brown injury, so he can afford to make it rain FAAB on the waiver-wire RBs until something sticks. Loveland is probably TE1 and Brian’s best player. I want to believe JD is the top cheat-code QB, but I really fail to see him responding well to being clowned on social media for the entire month of August. Brian’s Nole-clad IDP crew is great but unless they’re dropping 20s, it’s just not enough to get the 140-160 you need to compete in a melee (or a median score, barf).
11. Gene Vagina (Coleman)
Coleman is bad at many positions, but he’s so good at RB that he can cover for… wait, no, I’m hearing now that Sam Darnold scored 0.38 FP on Wednesday before getting hurt, so Coleman has no shot this week. But longer term, having a lot of garbage players means a lot of flexibility to play the wire for WR and QB. If Claude—I mean Coleman—can make a few good calls early, he can at least stay in the mix for ten weeks before the RB fire sale. I like the IDP group, but Nakobe Dean is a non-factor, and he’s the pick that precluded you from getting a good QB. It’s an all-time miss.
10. Unprepared 2026 (Corey)
Solid team on paper but too much can go wrong. Stafford is one slip in the shower from retirement. Bucky will be part of a 2,000-yard backfield, but how large a part? Achane will be a top-5 RB until an inevitable long-term injury. The WR crew of Lamb, Jameson, Sutton, STA-WAS, and Worthy is bottom-3 in Mortydome in terms of ceiling. Tyler Warren is a real threat to outscore everyone on this roster without even finishing as TE1. I do not like the rookie-heavy IDP room for Week 1, but I do like investing in multiple good rookies off the bat for the upside and being ready to move off of them if they don’t produce right away.
9. Not Aubrey’s Boot Barn (Cam)
The WR-TE situation has disaster potential. Drake London is the best thing, and his Week 1 QB is Cooper Rush plus back spasms. Everything else is rock solid. Trevor is still rehabilitating his image, but I don’t mind the idea that he can copy/paste most of his production from last year and be a top-10 QB. IDP group led by Danielle Hunter and Jack Campbell, plus Pineiro kicking for maybe this year’s best offense. The core group is the RBs Walker, Gibbs, and Pollard. Cam will learn the hard way that Rhamondre is never gonna happen.
8. Goose Suits (Doak)
Gotta goose ‘em if they want to look like a legitimate team next to the people ahead of me on the list. I did some things I don’t usually do, such as draft an injured played (Henderson), and I guess I could have been more concerned when Brock Bowers was missing training camp. I’m almost certainly going to see my bench QB outscore my starter, which is why I usually don’t draft a backup. One year I will prioritize drafting good players over players that I like. Maybe when Mike Evans retires.
7. Salute Your Morts (Max)
The benefit of two mid-week games and a slammed work schedule is that I already know Max has just 20 points from three players, but even before the action, his lineup wouldn’t scare anyone. Goff is solid, but you’re riding with hot-seat Hurts. While Zay Flowers and David Montgomery have solid outlooks, James Cook is your only consistent threat. You probably shouldn’t be this high on the list, but I need you here to help me stay under the radar. Either way it’s more of a binary situation of who’s going 2-0 or 0-2 thanks to the double melee.
6. Interdimensional Sports (Spe)
It’s the Jaxson Dart disaster potential for me. I also don’t see this as a ceiling-week for most of your players. The IDP group could be a page-one rewrite. Everyone has potential, but Bernard is the only one with a stable floor. Outside of Jeanty, Etienne, and JSN, I lack faith in your whole setup. Like Max, you are mostly a wooly sheep shield to protect me from the grasp of fantasy Polyphemus this week.
5. Mortgully Egosystem (Evan)
Faith in the Bucs this week against a trash Bengals defense gives Evan a leg up. More on the Bucs in a minute. Evan’s whole plan this year is faith: faith that Omarion Hampton breaks out thanks to Mike McDaniel’s revolutionary run scheme, faith that Kyler Murray restores Justin Jefferson to first-ballot HOF production, faith that being the best player on the Browns has fantasy value… good bets all, and a great IDP group to go with. Shame that Evan left the draft early, received the Thiccer Kicker as a bit, and started him anyway for 1 effing point this week. But the rest of the team should do enough to get over the (likely) 140 mark.
4. Rick Fu Hustle (Oliver)
Lost significant value going from 3.11 to 4.11 in order to trade up for Ja’Marr Chase, only to not actually stack him with Burrow because he insists on arriving late to the Lamar party. The Lamar party is over my friend. He’s 30, and he just won’t party like he used to. Believe me: if Lamar was going to be QB1 again this year, I wouldn’t have made the Drake Maye deal. I would have just drafted Lamar. But I’ll tell you what: Colts DC Lou Anarumo was the Bengals’ DC for a while, and Lamar repeatedly cooked him even when the defense was kinda good. And Oliver’s team is stacked. Would it be more stacked if he’d drafted a third good RB instead of Lamar? Yeah, man. It’d be more stacked. Jaylen Warren and Woody Marks don’t make up for passing on Jeremiyah Love. That shit is wild.
3. The Fleeb (Sean)
I’m big scared that we let Sean build another super team by letting Saquon and Josh slip to the turn. I take responsibility for opening up his QB spot while giving him probably the top TE and drafting Derrick Henry way above his ranking. I’m also confident Sean beefed most of his other picks, especially the part where he didn’t draft any IDPs, a strategy that failed him two years ago. While all of his players have juice and solid recent production, they all feel a little shaky, a little propped up despite their situations actually getting worse coming into this season. I’m comfortable betting on talent Week 1, so I think Sean sails to 2-0 and things get tricky later.
2. Gerd Jergins (Kennedy)
I did not like Kennedy’s draft, but I like his team. The extra 2nd and 4th helped a lot. Jeremiyah Love getting over an ankle sprain in record time is nice. There is a healthy mix of young and old, but there is a lot of washed potential. CMC, Watt, Garrett, Andrews, and even Metcalf are on the watch list. But none of that matters for Week 1. Caleb has all the tools to be QB1, T-Mac and Garrett Wilson will 100% lead their teams in targets and probably yards and TDs, too. Depending on Bowers’ injury, Tre Tucker might do it, too. So around midseason, this will all crumble, but Kennedy could be 14-0 by then.
1. The Incomplete Jungle (Shelby)
Sean earned this spot last year, so don’t fear the commissioner’s curse. Justin Herbert would be my bet for QB1, Jonathan Taylor is on the shortlist for RB1, George Pickens has a better shot at WR1 than all but like five other guys, Tucker Kraft feels like a strong bet to lead the Packers in targets, Aidan Hutchinson is the likely DL1 this season, and Carson Schwesinger is on the short list for LB1. Depth is a concern, but that’s a Week 5 problem.
We retained Todd Bowles as head coach, but why? Probably money. We were going to pay him whether he was coaching for us or not, and he only has one year left on his deal. It makes sense to honor the contract. He’s made no fire-able offense. We want to believe 3rd and 26 is a fire-able offense; Mike Evans sure did, and losing Mike Evans is borderline fire-able.
Losing Mike Evans is the saddest moment in Bucs football since we refused to re-sign Derrick Brooks, leading Brooks to retire since he didn’t want to move his family out of Tampa. What’s possibly not sadder but harder to swallow is that we tried to keep Evans and he decided to leave his home of, what, eleven years, to join the third best team in the NFC West? What does this say about us as an organization? What does this say about Bowles as a coach?
Bowles calls a great defense. Bowles manages the game well. I don’t always like how he calls defense or how he manages a game, but I can’t argue with the results, as far as what he has influence over. Last year, the offense wasn’t very good. This year, the offense should be okay. But we have a tendency to give up fourth-quarter comebacks. We struggle to get pressure without blitzing, and for a few reasons, it’s been tough to nail down whether it’s a design flaw or a personnel issue.
The other problem is how Bowles responded to injuries last year. He basically stopped having guys tackle at practice. Yaya Diaby publicly criticized the practices following the bye for being “mostly walkthroughs” without much hitting. We we’re 6-2 before the bye and 2-7 after. It’s not all Bowles’ fault. Firing the OC was legitimately a higher priority than firing Bowles. The offense went cold after like six weeks and never came back. Will hiring Zac Robinson solve that problem?
It’s not a great sign when you bring in a coach who was fired by one of your division opponents. The Falcons probably liked Robinson’s offense enough; their priority was improving the head coach position, and the new head coach and his offense don’t line up with Robinson’s McVay off-shoot. In Tampa, we’ve grown to love our McVay off-shoot ever since Canales, ever since Baker, really. So we like Zac Robinson. He’s kicked our ass plenty. I think he underachieved based on the skill players in Atlanta, but time will out whether the QBs were any fucking good at all.
Our QB is good. That’s why we’re paying him $55M per year to play for us. Losing Mike Evans sucks, but we had a plan. Technically we had a plan to replace Godwin, but it’s a minor tweak to the existing plan, and we were able to pivot to Ted Hurst as a big play and red zone threat. We have two extremely versatile RBs. We paid Otton. We have the best T-C-T tandem in the league, with a promising young guard and a decent veteran at the other spot. It’s not fireworks. We are down a true X-factor offensive skill player. But it’s also not obvious where we want to go with the ball, which works to our advantage since we don’t have any egos, except maybe Bucky.
Part of the reason I think Kenny Gainwell is going to takeover the backfield is that he’s simply better than Bucky. I get that his NFL career doesn’t reflect that. You have to spin it back to college. He went to Memphis and played under Mike Norvell (yep) when he was obsessed with hybrid RB-WRs, starting with Tony Pollard, then Gainwell, culminating in Antonio Gibson. Gainwell redshirted his freshman year in 2018, then in 2019 gained over 2,000 yards, making him one of only 100 players ever to do so, then opted out of the COVID season because he had multiple family members die from it, tanking his draft stock to the fifth round, where the Eagles took him and immediately used him but couldn’t make him work in Hurts’ offense. In his first season post-Philly, he played with Aaron Rodgers, quickly became Rodgers’ favorite player on the team, finishing behind only CMC, Bijan, and Gibbs in receptions while being the only RB in the league to earn over 1,000 yards on fewer than 200 touches. His yards per touch ranked behind only Bijan, Achane, Gibbs, Rhamondre (weird), and James Cook. Gainwell’s yards per touch finished just ahead of Henry, Swift, and Taylor. Gainwell has averaged just 120 touches per season in his career, and he’s never been injured. Meanwhile Bucky Irving had a nervous collapse over suffering his first career injury last season. Did I mention that Gainwell weighs 200 and squats 500? I’m not sure what else to say. Honestly, the Rodgers nod alone was enough. I just put the stats up to fortify the argument. One more stat: Gainwell led the Steelers in receptions and returned kicks. Rodgers is a crazy person, but he knows ball. The guys he thinks are good are legit good. Occasionally, there is a problem, like Rodgers being the only one to know how to use them (see: Allen Lazard), but I think Gainwell’s college acumen and early NFL success do well to dispel that concern.
Zooming out, this is the first year since Brady that we’ve had cap space, and it is uncoincidentally the first time since then we’ve had defensive depth. We were able to sign two starters (A’Shawn and Anzalone), three rotational players (Rozeboom, Muhammad, and Nacho), and a special teams captain (Killebrew). We have meaningful depth on defense. We even let Christian Izien walk. Izien was a great story, undersized UDFA turned starting nickel, proving Bowles acumen for developing DBs, but he was quickly replaced once we had resources. Tykee and Parrish in back-to-back drafts closed the door on any nickel/safety competition for the foreseeable future. Rookie Keionte Scott was drafted purely to backup whichever middle-of-the-field DB gets hurt first. Other additions to the secondary are rookie UDFA Ayden Garnes (baller; played in an Arizona secondary where the other four starters got drafted) and second-year UDFA Kevin Knowles (first Seminole to make the team siiiince Jameis?). Allegedly Scott played so well this summer that he pushed Jacob Parrish outside and Ben Morrison to the bench. We also brought Sean Murphy-Bunting back, though he might be washed. I’m not saying before Week 1 that we have legitimate depth, but we didn’t even appear deep heading into the last two or three years. We are deep enough to have live practices in the second half of the season, and I will take that.
I like Baker a lot, but I can’t see him ever getting anywhere near the numbers he got in that devil-blessed Coen season. 4500 yards and 40 TDs is fucking nuts. 4000 and 30 is a maybe, but realistically without Evans both drawing doubles all day and then hauling in 3-5 easy goal line scores every year, we’re probably lucky if Baker hits 3500 yards and 25 TDs this season. In Zac Robinson’s first year in Atlanta, the Falcons threw for 4000 and 21. In year two, they threw for 3500 and 19. So I’m actually expressing optimism here. That’s the upsetting thing.
At those numbers, 2026 Baker is as good as 2025 Jordan Love. Would you keep Jordan Love over a starting RB right now? Nobody in Mortydome even had Love on the roster to end the year, so I’m guessing probably not! But because I’ve said all this, because I’ve taken the extra-long walk to indict Baker Mayfield, he’s going to clear the 3500 and 25 bar while adding 300 and 5 on the ground. Punching Evan’s playoff ticket as I type. Guaranteed.
Godwin’s upside is leading the Bucs, the probably 15th best offense, in catches while Egbuka leads in yards. Maybe Godwin gets the TD lead, but he maxed out at nine in Jameis’s 30-30 season, and then seven in the Super Bowl season. In the past four years, he has 12 total TDs. He’s 30. He had one good game last year, super late in the year, against Miami, and it was a loss. Honestly, it might be over. Dude has played one full season since 2019. He also fumbles more than the average receiver. It would probably only happen twice, but still, most years, most WRs fumble zero times. Mike Evans hasn’t fumbled since 2018.
Godwin’s floor is like six games, 30 catches, 300 yards, no TDs, while his ceiling is like 90 catches, 1100 yards, seven TDs. The real question is: does Jalen McMillan have the juice to overtake Godwin? No, right? Like, not at all? This is probably Godwin’s last season with the Bucs. He’s 30, he’s been injured like twelve times, and the Bucs have a log-jam at the position. Two reasons he’s on the team: 1) he has a $33M cap hit and $49M dead cap, meaning it costs $16M to move him; and 2) Tez and Hurst aren’t ready to play full-time. Tez will never be ready; he’s too small, and Hurst is coming from the most dogshit D-1 conference imaginable, in which his school was the second worst and the worst was QB’d by (Brian and Spencer will love this): one Tate Rodemaker, who threw for 985 yards, 7 TD, and 7 INT. Ted Hurst (to be clear, playing for a different program than Tater but same conference) had 960 yards and 9 TDs.
Ted Hurst is either a serial killer or an actuary with no in between, and that sociopathic foundation makes him an ideal fit at WR. Is he Ted Bundy? Is he Tyler Durden? I don’t fucking know or care. I’m already convinced he’s going to challenge McMillan for the third spot on the depth chart by the end of the (7-10) season. It is coming to my attention that there is some low-hanging Fred Durst material here, hmmm, that’s not where we want to be, though, we want to be back in the Patrick Bateman zone, even Sean Bateman would do. Agggh, I need to delete it all so he can achieve his sociopathic stud receiver potential, but how do I resist comparing Zac Robinson’s cooking to hot-dog flavored water goddammit…
Just know if I use the term Chocolate Starfish, I’m talking about Ted Hurst. It speaks to his his smoothness, his catch radius, his calm. Chocolate Starfish, now THAT belongs on a plate with Bacon and Eggs. Technically it’s starfish and coffee, maple syrup and jam. We don’t have time to figure this out.
Season prediction: Bucs win the NFC South trash fight, barely beating out the Saints, who do not make it as a wild card.
Week 1 prediction: Bucs sack Burrow five times but still give up three TDs BUT one of them is in absolute garbage time. Bucs offense scores three TDs and the difference in the game is a field goal to end the first half. Gainwell and Bucky combined for 150 yards and two TDs. Baker hits Hurst on a goal line slant for the other TD. Baker throws a pick, takes a sack, and rushes for 30 yards and three first downs.
Week 1 counter-prediction: Bucs settle for a field goal on the opening drive, Bengals score a TD quickly and easily, Bucs respond with a punt, Bengals score again, 14-3 at the end of the first quarter. Game stalls in the second, resulting in a 17-6 score at half. Bucs make it 17-13, Bengals push it to 24-13, Bucs cut it to 24-20 with a late TD but on the final drive fail to prevent that crucial game-clinching first down.
