Though all of our miracle runs have ended, we did have one important upset. Kennedy finished the regular season with two wins, worst since Brian in 2022, and like Brian, Kennedy won when it mattered. He avoids the Jerry and sticks Oliver with the bill, which sticks the next non-Oliver loser with a massive bill, as well. I think the best compromise for everybody is for Oliver to get a Pathetic Jerry tattoo. Hey, note for the future, maybe don’t name your team after a character associated with the loser’s trophy?
Meanwhile, Kennedy proves that vibes are more important than trying to get the most points from every position. He cut Bobby Wagner, Wagner had a monster game, Kennedy started all Browns at IDP, and Kennedy won. The one imperfect thing was not giving Rhamondre his redemption but arc, but oh well. Kennedy ends the year with the most losses, but he has a clean slate and a Jerry-less mantle.
I don’t want to talk about my loss to Sean. I don’t want to talk about having a lead for literally three and a half minutes out of the entire week despite Sean saving four players for Monday while I was done on Sunday. I don’t want to talk about Lamar. I’m done with this season. I’m done with the Ravens and Bucs sucking, I’m done with hamstring injuries, I’m done with giving a shit about football for a few months. I’m not even mad. I felt pretty gross about my team all year, I won a playoff game, and I entered my game against Sean playing with house money. I expected to lose, I got excited about a small chance of winning despite mounting evidence I would lose by the 50 I predicted, and I was mostly interested in watching the Bucs and Ravens keep their playoff hopes alive. The Bucs game was bad, not terrible. The Ravens game was terrible. Losing Lamar Jackson is bad for the sport. But you know what? It’s good for me because I bet (even though I’m tipping my hand) he will be cheaper in next year’s draft.
My loss was not fun, but whatever. 130 FP despite my QB being my worst scorer, it’s fine. I left multiple 20s on the bench for at least the third week straight and probably the fifth or sixth time this season. I would have lost anyway. But Max and Brian, what happened? We’ve never had two teams go kersplat in the same week like this. The worst we’ve had is like an 80 and a 90. Two 70s is insane. Now, granted, Brian started a player who didn’t play, otherwise he would have had at least 84 FP. Max started the wrong backup RB or else he’d have flirted with 90. Josh Allen scoring zero touchdowns is kinda crazy, but it’s the third time this year he’s done it. The lesson: zig when I zag. I went into this year certain that the smart money was betting on Lamar and Josh, and our league championship features the best two RBs.
Coleman slops his way into the pick ladder finals. He forgot to start a QB, and even though he was able to correct it in time, he would have won by 20 without any QB at all. There’s no precedent for it, but Shelby and Cameron should get to go again after having the best game of the week and each beating Coleman by 60. Shelby has a lot to regret here. She was always gonna start Winfield, so it’s not that. It’s Edge Cooper. He had that big 17.5 FP last week, but he shouldn’t have been on Shelby’s radar much less her roster for that game. He hadn’t had a double-digit game since Week 2. Pivoting off of that earlier was an easy path to the five extra points she needed to win this week. But honestly this was probably destiny for Cam, who left 30 FP on the bench by starting London over Jeanty.
How fucking nuts is it that Sean and Spencer outscored everyone else again and finished within 0.2 FP of each other this week? This is by far the most consistency we’ve seen from our final two teams, the strongest finals matchups we could have hoped for, and I think I speak for all of us when I say BOOOOO and blow a raspberry and stick my thumbs down. Oh look, I’m Sean and Spencer. I drafted a perfect team and barely had to make any moves while moonwalking into the finals. Fuck you. (It’s a reference to a tweet about Klay Thompson and Megan Thee Stallion; again, I think Sean and Spe delivered all year and deserve this.)
Evan had a good if anticlimactic final victory. 5th Place is worth pears, but a strong 160 in the final week and outscoring all the playoff teams except the top two is sweet, and are we experiencing a legit Kenny Gainwell breakout? He’s got the CryptoHenry role and he’s just entering his physical prime, whereas Patterson was very much leaving his when he joined forces with Arthur Smith. He’s gone from intriguing late keeper option to potential top-10 RB entering next season. The snag is Aaron Rodgers. Either he comes back at age 43, or the Steelers move on to someone surely less ideal for Gainwell’s success.
I will give you a good season recap next week. Don’t worry. For now, let’s stay in the moment.
How much I've thought about this can be summarized this way: I intially skipped it, and I nearly published the note without noticing.
Shelby probably won't get the fireworks from Herbert, Warren, and Brown again, but they'll still be good, and her WRs and IDPs will bounce back. The thing is: Brian barely has a team anymore. He has three injured QBs, two injured rookie RBs, Marv has directly stated he will "play hurt the rest of the year," and Brian Thomas Jr. is apparently the fourth or fifth option in the Jags passing game. Ja'Marr Chase and the IDPs can only do so much. Brian can get to about 120, which should be Shelby's floor.
We’re happy to be here, but we’re ready to be done after last week. Corey asked me for QB advice, and we agreed that Stroud was the play at QB. Stafford is bad in bad weather, and he was facing an elite defense. Stroud has been hot, outscored Stafford last week, and was facing the Raiders. In hindsight, Stroud always had a lower ceiling in such a plus matchup, and we should be chasing ceiling in the playoffs. Luckily for our psyches, the extra 30 FP wouldn’t have been enough against Spe anyway. But Corey started weak options at kicker and DL, so Stafford’s extra 30 plus an extra six-ish from better peripheral plays would have made the difference.
I am ready to be steamrolled. I lost my QB, I’m pretty sure, and Corey’s just so stacked. I have no FAAB and expect there to be a ridiculous run on futures. My season is effectively over. Third place is a weak consolation for Corey. I’d be reeling if I were him. He is more likely to outscore everyone than I am to outscore him.
For what they’ve both been through this season, this is a solid consolation prize. It sucks for Shelby that she won’t be in this one despite outscoring both of these dudes consistently since midseason. Alas.
That Trevor is so hot right now. Most of Cameron’s team is hot. Saquon is back, Olave’s come on, Jeanty and Walker were out of control this week, and the IDPs—got damn! In the postseason, Cameron has scores of 181 and 175, his two best weeks of the year (still would have lost to Sean or Spe this week so no what-ifs to weigh you down). The two weeks prior, he had 107 and 111. It’s really impossible to say whether he’ll sway to the extremes or find a middle, but the difference is hot-ass Trevor: two starts for Cam, 99 FP thanks to 10 totals TDs, including two rushing. Imagine me, the guy who drafted Trevor, or Coleman, the guy who traded Watt for Trevor, watching this go down when we’re losing Lamar and Mahomes to injuries the past two weeks. If I had just held onto Trevor, I would probably have a better record and I would have been in a position where I had the winning points on the bench this week against Sean. No, I’m not doing it. It’s over. It’s done. Coleman, don’t even trip. We didn’t know. Nobody knew. Cameron wouldn’t even have added him if Daniel Jones hadn’t torn his Achilles.
But Coleman, you will lose to hot-ass Trevor. Because even if he’s whatever against the Colts (more likely he will stay hot), Cameron has good players at every position, while Coleman is down to about six solid starters thanks to injuries and quiet quitting. Coleman’s bench lit up last week, so maybe. Maybe he has a shot. But it would very much be an upset. It would also be par for the course for Cameron this season to lose this one.
QB
Hurts @BUF in the Sunday afternoon feature spot. Bills have “defended the pass well” because they haven’t stopped anybody from running the ball. Their three good defensive performances were against the Jets (Fields missed half the game), Panthers (Le Morte D’Alton), and Steelers (Rodgers played hurt and missed time). Hurts should be good for 20 with Barkley capping his upside.
Sean picks between Maye @NYJ and Dak vs.WAS. Super strong matchups. Maye gives you more ways to score, but Dak plays on Christmas. The Cowboys are out of the playoffs and playing on another holiday. The only sensible thing to do in this situation is beat the shit out of the people in front of you, so I would go with Dak. Pats can clinch the division with a win and Bills loss, so they’ll keep their foot on the gas even without real competition on the other side.
RB
The CeRBerus is strong with Spencer, and the matchups are favorable. Achane vs. TB who can’t defend outside runs, Etienne @IND who are good against the run but their LBs suck in pass coverage, and CMC vs.CHI on Sunday night with the 49ers in the mix to win the division if they keep rolling.
This is Sean’s weakest spot right now. Defenses are laser-locked on Taylor, who hasn’t topped 20 FP since his 60-point explosion in Week 10. Week 10! Javonte is hurt, but Sean has his backup Malik Davis, but if Javonte plays hurt then that’s a no-win situation. Dowdle has been held under 3.5 yards per carry in five of the last six weeks, topping out at 16 FP, and that was also Week 10. Breece faces a solid Pats run D, and he’s splitting work with Isaiah Davis now. Spencer should probably spend big FAAB to keep Michael Carter off Sean’s roster, with Carter facing the worst tackling team of the decade. But Sean can also add and start Chris Rodriguez, but Spencer has $93 FAAB to Sean’s $44. Spencer can outbid Sean for both and force Sean into a much harder decision.
WR
Spencer has good-not-great WRs, and with the Bills “defending the pass well,” it’s hard to start AJB and DeVonta with the chip on the line. AD Mitchell is a keeper stash, Jakobi Meyers is important to the Jags and his poor showing last week can be attributed to Pat Surtain. Pittman is a no and Spe knows it, briefly dropping him Sunday before adding him again. I’d pick two of AJB, DeVonta, and Jakobi. Nothing good on waivers.
Sean starts Puka and Pickens, who combined for a third of his points in the semis. You imagine that 60 turns into a 40, but Spencer is maxing out at 40. Puka has entered the his WR Diva era, where however crazy and stupid he appears off the field, the more dominant he is on the field. With the Rams coming off a loss and losing their grip on the division, with Davante play hurt at best, Puka is probably good for 30.
TE
For a moment, we had the best TE matchup possible, but Kittle hurt is ankle and McBride had his worst game of the year. Brissett’s magic might have run out. It usually only take four or five games for the old dudes to lose the juice. If Kittle can’t go, I don’t know what Spencer does. I’m the guy who started Colby Parkinson when it was so, so clear that he couldn’t keep getting away with it.
K
Chase McLaughlin is fifth in total points. Eddy Pineiro has averaged 1.5 per game more than him. McLaughlin gets a sunny 75 with light wind in Miami. Pineiro faces 20 MPH winds in San Fran. Sean’s best pivot options are The Thiccer Kicker (Harrison Mevis) or Aubrey Lite (Blake Grupe).
IDP
Spencer starts Burns, Dodson, Hufanga, and Marcus Jones, who combined for 34 last week, half from Burns. I say shake it up. You don’t owe these dudes shit, and there are a bunch of good options. The only advice I have is don’t overthink it. It’s pretty random, random enough that you might just hope these players’ scores swing back around.
Sean starts Van Ginkel for sure, probably goes back to Brooks and Gray at LB and DX, and then we’ll see about Nick Cross. He hasn’t done a whole lot and doesn’t deserve any benefit of the doubt in a do-or-die situation.
Right now, Sean has the clear advantage at IDP and potentially TE, but Spencer can equalize with the CeRB. It’s gonna come down to QBs and kickers. The QBs are a crap shoot because they all face bad run defenses. There are only three or four kickers who give you a true advantage, and they aren’t in this matchup (as Cam, Coleman, Shelby, and I wave from the sidelines).
This is the final week to stash some keepers. It is technically the final chance to spend FAAB, but the champ could use their rule to roll FAAB over. Looking at our specific champs and their budgets and their likely attempts to outbid each other for certain key players, I don’t think FAAB is rolling over. Spend that shit.
