Dear Shuh-helby, you are just too good
How do you beat Sean? I don't think I could
His whole team is elite starters
I don’t mean to neg her roster
But Shuh-helb’s been treading waterrrr
Well, the gods love to surpriiiiise us.
And I thought winning a bid against Sean for a kicker was exciting. Imagine not only getting the win but kicking his ass. Unlike Sean’s last loss, where he scored like 120 points, he put up a real fight in this one, but Shelby took a commanding lead Thursday night on the back of an IDP, and then she buried Sean before most of his team even played. Her CeRBerus went crazy, with Jahmyr Gibbs going the craziest, falling just 0.3 FP shy of the all-time leaderboard. It was so delicious watching Sean get a taste of that JT-esque medicine. And then he scored 160! The only two scores higher were Shelby, his opponent, and Spencer, the 1-seed and only other direct winner against Sean. Fabulous!
Also fabulous: the return of the rat king! And Kennedy’s encouragement of it! And the 6-7-ification of our entire society! We’re fucking idiots, completely doomed. Like is it any wonder the machines will be in power in less than a year?
Okay, conspiracy theory time. The reason Trump has leaned so hard into the demented AI content is that he is actually making a play to convince our future AI overlords that he’s the most powerful and talented person on the planet. He might get away with it, too! He’s gotten away with everything else.
And when the machines take control, Max will be Secretary of Raccoon Relations.
Speaking of dubious honors, Kennedy is this year’s Rivalry Czar, AND he got to combine it with his cash game, AND he delivered. He made as good a bid as possible to reset the deck. In the process, Max and I got boned hard getting matched up against the juggernauts. I was feeling confident about my points tiebreaker until I barely broke 100 last week, losing 40-50 points of ground to the rest of the rat king and a full 100 to Shelby, who actually took the overall points lead among the seven teams on the playoff bubble. That list:
1718 Shelby
1716 Doak
1709 Max*
1689 Evan
1686 Cam
1616 Corey
1607 Coleman
1594 Brian
*Max doesn’t really belong on this list because the only way he misses the playoffs also eliminates Brian, Corey, and Shelby. The only scenario where Max misses the playoffs (literally a 0.01% chance) is that Max loses to Sean, loses in the melee, AND Cameron, Coleman, Evan, and I win out WHILE Max drops below all four of us in the points, meaning Coleman needs to make up 100 points in two weeks. Possible. All possible. It wasn’t that long ago that Cameron, Coleman, and Evan would have had easy wins over Corey, Kennedy, and Shelby, respectively. And I still have Lamar, dammit, that should mean something. Why doesn’t that mean something!
Because Lamar is hurt. He maybe recovered from his hamstring injury, then he picked up a knee injury, then he picked up a toe injury. Without the Houdini act, what is Lamar? He’s Mahomes, the version of Mahomes we’ve gotten for three years until the first half of this season. He can throw, but his receivers are whatever. He can kind of run, but if the defense is schemed up, he’s not getting more than a few yards at a time, and the team is afraid to use him on sneaks. Jameis Winston scored seven times as many points as Lamar over the past two weeks. I’m in hell.
Evan’s season has sprung a leak, as well. The Bucs’ injuries, the Vikings’ QB situation, Evan completely ignoring WR in free agency all season… Evan has lost six of his last seven, and in his last three, he’s scored 132, 109, and 117. Only Oliver has been worse. I have had the next worst stretch, scoring 155, 121, and 100 in that stretch. I would bet all the FAAB in Kennedy’s inbox that if Evan misses the playoffs, he would be the first 5-0 team to do so.
Bucs-Rams was so bad. Usually, you write a game off when it’s that lopsided, but my issue is that it doesn’t seem like our defense had a plan. I mean, I’m sure they had a goal, and they had an agenda, but I don’t think they had any idea what the Rams were going to do or how they were going to… y’know… not let them do it. The Rams pretty much stopped playing when Bridgewater took over, otherwise they would have scored 60 points. I think even if Baker is fully healthy and plays the whole game, the Bucs maybe get two more TDs, and that’s if we refuse to go pass-heavy to try and claw back. That’s if we just play our game and run the shit out of the ball and try to stay on schedule and build some momentum for next week.
Well, it’s next week, and you better believe we’re gonna run the shit out of the ball with Bridgewater set to start and Bucky coming back. I don’t want to see anymore WR screens. None. Zero. Not this week. RB screen, great. TE screen, not sure why we would, but I don’t hate it. The WR screens are going nowhere. The Bucs have gained like 40 yards on screens this year. Yeah, less than four yards per game, and we call about four screens per game. Just run the ball. Run the ball 50 times. We’ll win the game. It’s the fucking Cardinals. They don’t even want to win. They want Arch Manning.
Yes, I’m convinced NFL teams don’t care about college performance and are still all-in on Arch, and I think this is the right process. I want traits, I want effort, and if I can get pedigree and preparedness, yeah man, give it to me. I want Arch bad. I don’t want him for the Bucs. But if Baker wasn’t an option, I’d be willing to sell the farm for a Manning.
JK. I don’t think anything matters but arm strength and the ability to avoid sacks. Joe Flacco has radicalized me. The Browns would be a .500 team if they had just kept starting Flacco. Just give me a dude who can rip it and an OC who can scheme open windows. Carson Wentz was going to lead the Vikings to the playoffs because he can break sacks and throw hard. Caleb Williams has the Bears at the top of their division because he can escape pressure and sling that thing. If Arch has the Manning family arm, that’s no good. You know who has the strongest arm in this year’s rookie class? Jaxson Dart. No coincidence he’s leading all rookies in scoring. Also no coincidence the QB with the better arm strength won the rookie battle in Cleveland. It’s not all that matters, but without it, nothing else matters. You know who doesn’t have a strong arm? JJ McCarthy. You know who’s on his way completely out of the league? JJ McCarthy. You know why Zach Wilson keeps getting work? Arm strength. You know why Josh Rosen washed out of the league after getting drafted right behind Josh Allen? Arm strength. You know why Cameron has two QBs who turned into pumpkins the moment November hit? Arm strength. Here is the exhaustive list of starting QBs who don’t have the arm: Tua, Tyrod, Dimes, Stroud, Nix, Geno, Hurts, McCarthy, Bryce, Cousins, Shough. Burrow and Goff are the exceptions that prove the rule in each conference. And you’re talking about very unique situations for both. Their accuracy and timing are perfect, and Goff’s situation, starting his career with McVay then getting to be reborn with Campbell, playing with peak Gurley and Gibbs taking the pressure off.
All right. Enough preamble. It’s Rivalry time.
QB
Lamar vs. CIN in the Thursday night extra is a great matchup. Burrow is back, and the Bengals’ defense is bad. Should be a shootout. It won’t. We know it won’t. For one thing, the Ravens defense has gotten pretty good. Burrow is rusty. No Tee Higgins. Bengals’ o-line is bad bad, but it hasn’t been a topic because Flacco has been getting rid of the ball so quickly. Counterpoint: Joe Burrow’s career splits vs. Baltimore (per game): 300 yards, 2.3 TDs, 0.5 INT. I’m down for that. I’m down to see Lamar have to match that.
Hurts vs. CHI is a good matchup on paper, but the Eagles have been bad, and the Black Friday game is historically ass. Dart is supposed to return and play the Pats on Monday night. I would do that. I’m not complaining. I will gladly face Spencer’s three Eagles combining for 40 FP.
RB
Three-headed RB whose names all start with D has me feeling lucky. Derrick, Devin, and D’Andre are the wartiest CeRBerus imaginable, and I’m proud to be their head coach. I like the matchups, and I’m harboring the delusion that Swift isn’t losing more and more ground to Monangai each week.
Spencer starts the actual CeRBerus in CMC, Achane, and Etienne. CMC faces the Browns, whose DC is sick enough to sell out to stop him, whose LBs can somewhat cover him. Achane faces the Saints, who suck BUT… no, sorry, that’s supposed to say who suck butt. And Etienne faces the Titans, who are bad but frisky and have had two of their best three defensive games in the past two weeks following their bye.
If I want to be obstinate in my delusion, I make the argument that Spencer is at a disadvantage because their RBs are more likely to be the focal point of the opposing defenses’ gameplan. Cognitive dissonance says that I’m not allowed to recognize that this is related to how good these players are.
WR
Jameson Williams had zero points last week, but the Lions nearly lost. Chimere Dike had 28 points last week, half of them on a massive punt return TD. I don’t feel good about starting them this week, and I don’t feel good about taking this WR room into the playoffs. T-Mac, DJ Moore, and Alec Pierce are the more obvious plays. Maybe I’ll come to my senses. I don’t know. I thought I was making the safe, smart play last week by starting my best players, and I left 70 points on the bench.
DeVonta Smith is probably out. He’s tiny, he’s not able to practice at all, and his team plays on Friday. AJ Brown should get 15 targets. I should be toast before we even get to the back-half of our lineups. I think if DeVonta sits, it’s time for Spencer to give Jag-kobi some run. McLaurin is back but against Denver. Pittman has been pretty good, but he plays Houston.
TE
I’m either starting Juwan Johnson or Taysom Hill. I’m starting two Saints. It’s fair to assume I don’t even want to win.
Spencer is starting Kittle. Maybe it doesn’t matter whether I want to win.
K
Ka’imi is literally first in points per game. McLaughlin is 14th, but the Bridgewater thing plus the matchup against Arizona helps. Shouldn’t get blown out, so field goals should be on the table all game. Bucs will be able to move the ball but Cards’ D is good enough to keep them out of the end zone. I could see 15 points apiece.
IDP
TJ Watt faces the Bills, probably without their starting RT. Roquan faces Cincy, and Roquan is gonna be hungry because he had a free run at Tyrod Taylor last week and whiffed on the tackle. He’s gonna get Burrow once. Tykee is DB1 despite Marcus Jones scoring multiple TDs. Quincy Williams faces a Falcons offense that will run the ball 35 times.
Brian Burns faces a decimated Pats line, and the Giants DC was just fired. I think the interim is gonna let Burns do whatever he wants. I’m expecting three sacks. Tyrel Dodson is doing Super Bowl Devin White stuff this year, leading off-ball LBs in sacks, going against a Saints team without their starting center, with a rookie QB. One sack minimum. Kamari Lassiter should be the defender on the Alec Pierce deep shots, which gives him really good odds of getting a pick. Marcus Jones would have been a much better play if Jameis was getting another start. But I can also see the Pats forcing a good amount of punts.
No predictions this week if you couldn’t tell already. But I will say that I think as much as I want to want it more, I honestly believe Spencer wants it more. I am just hoping for fireworks from Lamar.
QB
Oliver shoved Burrow back onto his IR like an insane person. Just drop McCarthy already. So it’s Burrow against the Ravens, solid. Super solid. His last two games against Baltimore, Burrow has scored 47 and 46.
Brian has Winston in, but sadly Dart is coming back. It’s Trevor time (I guess… I think Brian should go back to the Cam Ward well after what Ward did against a really good Seahawks defense).
RB
Harvey is a lead back, but Sean Payton insists on the committee, insists on competition. Smart football, not fun for fantasy. Harvey has pretty bad overall numbers. I think he needs to score TDs to be a thing. Kimani Vidal faces the Raiders, who suck, but Hampton might be back this week. Another committee. Another guy who needs TDs. Oliver’s RBs are gonna combine for like 10 FP without those TDs. I would prefer Allgeier to either. The Falcons want to run, and the Jets’ interior line is weak.
Brian starts the CeRB for now. Henderson remained the lead back even with Rhamondre playing. Tucker is probably the “lead” in Tampa, but this situation screams hot hand approach, which is gross. I’d rather start Marv. Woody Marks is a dude, and I think he is due for a big receiving day, especially against a Colts LB duo that just can’t cover.
WR
Shakir had a really weird week. He became a dad on Monday then played the Texans on Thursday. He had a garbage first three quarters, to the tune of 0.05 FP, then he finished with 110 yards. He faces the Steelers, who are worse than the Texans in every way, so Shakir is gonna have like seven fantasy points. DK Metcalf might not play. Oliver’s pivot is Sutton, which means flexing either Allgeier or Pearsall.
Brian might finally be back at full strength at WR, and he’s good enough at RB that he only needs three. I think Chase, BTJ, and Marv are the obvious starts, and I think when you need to win you should do the obvious shit. That puts Tucker on the bench for sure.
TE
Kelce’s been elite. I hate it.
Loveland is exactly what Coleman and Cameron hoped he would be, but for Brian.
K
No
IDP
OIiver is going back to chasing sacks, and you know what, why stop at two DLs. Devin White isn’t doing shit, really. My pick would be Tuli Tuipulotu against the Raiders. Oliver should start Hunter and Bonitto every week for the rest of the year. Kam Curl is fine, but I might pivot to Hufanga at this point.
Brian was so close to cracking IDP, and then Tatum Bethune got hurt and Brian lost the thread. Jared Verse is perfection. Jamien Sherwood’s time has past. Time to get some new blood. Or old blood in the form of Lavonte. No, I’ll tell you what you really need: Derwin. Do your little Lions thing with Branch and Anzalone. But dump the Jet (everyone dump all your Jets) and bring Derwin home.
Oliver angered the gods. He’s not winning another game all year. But if he were going to win, it would be… because… mm, no, I don’t believe there’s a case for Oliver. I suppose there’s a good enough case against Brian: Trevor’s floor, Henderson ceding the high-leverage touches to Rhamondre, Ja’Marr getting doubled or tripled, BTJ getting hurt again, Marv losing his job to Michael Wilson… I’m not buying in. I tried to make a case. I don’t believe there’s a case to make.
QB
Stafford is the MVP favorite right now. He leads the league in TDs… by SEVEN. He’s thrown 30. The other three players over 20 TDs have thrown 3, 4, and 5 more picks than Stafford. The Rams play @ Carolina, and I think the exhibition game vibe from the Bucs game will have sort of a Home Run Derby effect on the Rams offense. They will be out of rhythm when the Panthers actually have answers for their easy buttons. I’m so mad at Todd Bowles right now.
Bo Nix is @WAS. The ‘Ders have been pretty much the worst defense in the league, but they’re coming off bye, and Dan Quinn has taken over defensive playcalling. Should be insanely easy for Nix to carve this defense up with the Broncos also having had a bye week to prepare. I can see the Broncos jumping out to a multiple TD lead after one quarter, so I like Nix for 20+. Danny Dimes vs.HOU is not an option. Bryce Young is droppable with a bye coming next week. All the Panthers except Dowdle and T-Mac are droppable.
RB
Bijan has been effortlessly good. The Falcons season is on the brink. It is time for Bijan to be effortful. It is time to hit home runs. The Jets are ready to give up. They want to be run over. They want the excuse to lie down. The Falcons need to win some games. They need to at least appear to be competing for the weakest division. Bucky’s baaack. Corey is one step closer to his optimal lineup. Honestly this might be it. I’m not convinced Garrett Wilson is coming back this season, and I’m not convinced he’s outscoring Michael Wilson this season. Mike Evans, I’d love to have him. I’d love for him to 860 yards in the final four games of the season. But I’d love more to save him until we need him.
Saquon Barkley is questionable. He can probably play through it, but why? The Eagles have a 2.5-game lead for the division, they have a short week this week, and then they play on Monday next week. They can afford to give Barkley a mini-bye, and they should. I feel like they won’t because if they gave a shit about player health, they probably wouldn’t run the tush push. Barkley will continue to play hurt, continue to play poorly, continue to cost Cam games. Sadly, you gotta start him. And your whole RB situation is sadly you gotta start him. Sadly you gotta start Jeanty. At least the Chargers run D is mediocre. Sadly you gotta start Ken Walker because the Vikings run D is mediocre. It’s probably a wash between Walker and Olave, but reading that Olave has a back injury, I’m feeling like it’s 50-50 he leaves the game early. I would not consider starting Tuten, which probably means he’ll be your highest scorer.
WR
JSN, Diggs, and Wilson are each good for 10-20, closer to 20.
Amon-Ra and Ladd will lead their teams in targets, though I (by way of bias) suspect that the Lions overemphasized Amon-Ra last week believing they could easily win that Giants game and setup counterpunches for this week’s division game against the Packers. Amon-Ra will get plenty of action, but Jameson is going to be more involved again, pushing Amon-Ra back down to around 15 FP. I don’t have deep analysis for you, but Ladd McConkey is going to have a great week. The Raiders’ season is falling apart, their defense is predictable/exploitable, and Ladd is the Chargers’ best WR.
TE
The Raiders’ coaches want to feature Bowers. Chip Kelly was fired for featuring Jeanty. That’s not even a rumor at this point, but two weeks ago, Jeanty had 12 touches, and Pete Carroll implied that running the offense through Bowers was their best bet at moving the ball. Then last week, Jeanty had 25 touches, just one fewer target than Bowers, while Tre Tucker had one more target than Bowers. The conspiracy theory gains traction when the Raiders name Greg Olson the interim OC. I need you to know that in his last three full seasons as an OC, a TE led his team in targets. He was the Bucs’ OC for three years, and two of those years Kellen Winslow led the team in targets. Brock Bowers is gonna get 15 targets per game.
Tyler Warren is great, but he’s a far cry from the McBride/Bowers/Kittle tier.
K
Aubrey low-key falling apart, right?
Jake Elliot has a knack for only scoring fantasy points when he’s not on a roster.
IDP
Corey’s IDPs are a mess, but that’s what makes him so dangerous.
Micah Parsons getting hot at the wrong time if Corey doesn’t want to regret dropping him after the first month of the season. He and Hutch face each other this week, and I believe they think about it. Oluokun’s a stud. Nixon is whatever, but I like that he guards Amon-Ra. I like the bet that he gets a lot of chances to knock passes down or make tackles.
Ultimately, we want Corey to win. We meaning the poor six other souls on the playoff bubble. If Cameron gets to seven wins this week, he can get to eight next week, which would eliminate three teams minimum. We want everyone capped at six wins so it can come down to the melee and the points. If you want to make the playoffs, score more points the week before the playoffs.
With a win this week, Max can make a push for the 2-seed. He’d have to win out and Sean would have to lose in the melee because Sean has a 440-point lead on him. Max clinches his playoff spot if any of the four 6-6 teams lose.
QB
Dak vs. KC because Sean loves picking the wrong QB. Nah I get it. Maye faces the Giants with the left side of his line out. Abdul Carter game. But like… Dak isn’t gonna have a good game. The Chiefs defense hasn’t been elite, but it’s good. Cowboys will probably score two TDs and three FGs. Maybe 20 FP for Dak. I’d bet the under.
Josh Allen @PIT is going to be gross. The Steelers’ defense has been bad at everything, including tackling. They have the second most missed tackles this season. Josh Allen is pretty famous for running people over, and the Bills’ best receiver is an expert at making people miss, so yeah, looking like another bounceback week for the Bills offense, led by Josh Allen.
RB
Javonte Williams facing the defense that just held Jonathan Taylor to 9 FP. Jonathan Taylor facing the defense that just got torched by James Cook (Houston, despite being the league’s #1 defense, has mediocre missed tackle numbers). Breece Hall facing a Falcons defense that has held its last two opponents under 80 rushing yards. But I get benching Dowdle because the Rams are scarier than either of your other rough matchups.
Josh Jacobs is back, and he’s matchup proof. Max is really fucking around if he’s starting Chaad with Bucky back. There’s no way. He also can’t start Mason against the Seahawks. He’s gotta cut the extra IDP for a more exciting flex option. BUT you know, I’m okay trying to mine Chaad for first downs and touchdowns. He’s the closest thing the Bucs have to a power back, and they use him like one when they need to.
WR
Puka is good for 15 against whoever, but Sean would really like a taste of something closer to 30 to get back to dominance and make one last go at the 1-seed (sorry, dude, I’m losing to Spe and costing you that shot). Pickens has been dominant, but it’s about to hit a snag. For one, he’s insane. For two, he’s had his ego inflated beyond the point of no return. You can’t just deflate this ego. This ego simply grows until it pops, gets mended, and then grows again.
Davante Adams has been outscoring Puka, as has Nico Collins. If Pickens’ ego pops, Max is doubling Sean up at those two WR spots. Rashid Shaheed is the kind of guy you either start or don’t roster unless you’re loaded. He’s going to drop 20 FP at least two more times this year.
TE
McBride is doing for Sean at TE what Max wishes Josh Allen was doing at QB. He’s outscoring the average player at his positions by seven points per game. (Btw the reason RB is so valuable is that Jonathan Taylor is outscoring the average RB by 15 per game. JSN is outscoring the average WR by 10. Ka’imi is outscoring the average K by about 3. Myles Garrett the god only scores 15 per game, but that’s about 7 above the average starter in Mortydome. The top LB is under 12 FP per game, not even a full 2 FP above average, DB is only slightly better with Tykee 3 FP above average. Josh Allen leads the average QB by 4 FP; last year QB1 Lamar was outscoring QB2 Josh by 4.5, leading the average QB by, you guessed it, 7 FP.)
Hunter Henry is having a career renaissance. Meanwhile he was under 10 FP in seven straight games until last week. (McBride has been above 13 FP each of the last six weeks, three of those above 20 FP).
K
Sean’s not starting Ka’imi; I know that!
Max is starting Boswell, who has cooled off considerably this month. A game against the Bills would be bad for most kickers, but Tomlin is so conservative, he’s down to kick field goals to stay in games until he literally needs TDs.
IDP
Sean is good for 30-40 every week, but over 40 is gonna be rare, and it’s going to come down to Van Ginkel doing insane shit.
I’m not sure Max’s IDP group has hit 40 FP once this season. Ah, he did it once, in Week 5, when he scored 44.5 and his lineup totaled 176 and he lost to Sean by 7. In that matchup, Sean’s IDPs only scored 19.5 FP, and Sean has since moved on from three of the four. Max had Jack Campbell back then. Damn what a regrettable drop. I actually like Max’s IDP group this week. Carter is meh to me because I don’t tend to fuck with interior linemen, but other than that, I see the 40-point potential. It took your eight weeks but you did it.
Didn’t we just do this? Woof. Two weeks ago, Shelby beat Evan 134-109 in a week where Herbert scored 3.3.
QB
Does Shelby go back to Herbert after what we’ve seen from Brissett? In six games, his lowest score was 19.98 and he’s averaging 25, just under Hurts and Dak, better than all but five QBs (Herbert is 10th). The Chargers line is so bad right now, I don’t think I would trust Herbert because of the sacks and pressures that lead to picks. But if we’re worried about sacks, pressures, and picks, do you want a statue QB against Bowles’ defense? In the Haason Reddick revenge game?! Shoulda picked up Ward instead of making a losing bid for Shedeur.
Baker is out, or at least he should be. Fire up the Darnold revenge game against the Vikings, and this is a true revenge game, not that he necessarily has bad blood or hard feelings, but he does have something to prove. The Vikings would probably be leading their division if they had just paid Darnold instead of signing a couple of 30-yo defensive tackles. So not only does he want to show them what they’re missing, he wants to get the better of that defense they dumped him for.
RB
Shelby’s CeRB isn’t quiiiite as good as Spencer’s, but damn. She scored 200 last week because the RBs combined for just under 100. The matchups for Warren and Brown are very good, and I’m not worried about Gibbs’ matchup unless it’s the Rams or Seahawks. It’s the Packers, who haven’t faced a good offense since Week 4.
James Cook @PIT is ugly, but as he showed in Houston, all it takes is one. Gainwell vs. BUF is ugly, too, but I get it: Gainwell has 47 FP in the last two weeks, and he’ll be returning kicks in a game against an elite offense.
WR
Rome @PHI I don’t love because he’ll be matched up on Quinyon Mitchell, one of the top five corners in the league. Wan’Dale @NE I don’t love because the Pats top two corners are so electric and the third one will just cheat and injure you if he can’t guard you. I’d go back to Deebo. I wouldn’t worry about his matchup. Or fire up the Dortch.
Jefferson, Egbuka, and Rice is so much name candy. Jefferson hasn’t topped 10 FP in three weeks. Egbuka hasn’t done it the last two weeks. Rice is on fire and gets a sweet matchup.
TE
AJ Barner is frustrating because he’s that dude and he’s young and he’s surrounded by a bunch of other great players. He eats inevitably but not consistently. And there’s no improving here without simply guessing right. At least we know Barner is the shit. You wanna drop the shit for Brenton Strange? Taysom Hill? No.
Oh, Goedert. Just along for the ride. He’s similar to Barner except that he’s an established veteran on an offense that’s just incompetent about getting their five superstars clicking at the same time.
K
Battle of the Cams. Oof just realized Evan’s starting a Sam and a Cam against Shelby, which no one has done all season. I’d try to avoid that. All the more reason for Shelby to get Deebo Samuel in the lineup.
IDP
By this point, we’re all jealous you have Will Anderson. Even Kennedy’s a little jealous. He drafted Texans rookie Jayden Higgins the pick before Shelby took Anderson. Had he taken Anderson, he’d have circumvented Bobby Time instead of attempting to distort it. You can’t mess with time, but you can certainly ignore it. Edge Cooper’s gotta go, right? Hasn’t scored double digits since Week 2? You don’t need that. There are so many other options. You’re one IDP short of an elite group. Winfield and Landman are excellent. We expect more points from Winfield, but we know what happened to them. It’s only a matter of time until they materialize.
Byron Young is fine, but it makes sense that his production was going to dip. He’s firmly third or fourth best on that line. I’d move on at this point. Campbell and Baun are rock solid. Chinn, idk. I’d prefer Hufanga.
Kennedy and Coleman have been within nine points of each other the last three weeks. The two weeks before that, Kennedy outscored Coleman by an average of 25. Last week, Kennedy outscored Coleman by .09.
QB
This week, Mahomes faces the Cowboys, who spent ten weeks being the worst defense in the league. Then they improved at more than half the starting spots via trade and recovery. I think they’re okay. Mahomes isn’t an automatic 30 this week.
Brock Purdy @ CLE in bad weather is scary, but he might score 20 FP just dumping off screens to CMC and Kittle. Caleb feels safer, but I don’t think he is. I think Ben Johnson and the concept of the Bears should compete well against Vic Fangio’s defense, but I don’t believe Caleb has reached that level where he can dissect it and out-maneuver it.
RB
Kyren and the flex STAck will finish what Mahomes starts. STA-KC is at risk of losing work to Pacheco, but I don’t think this is the week to worry about it. At worst you’re getting a split where your guy is getting the high-leverage snaps.
Tracy and Monangai is a wild pair of RBs for a guy who started the season with Jeanty, Hampton, and Conner. What’s even wilder is that they’ve combined for 32 FP each of the last two weeks. It’s not star power, but it keeps you in games.
WR
Lamb duh whatever. Doubs? Hasn’t gone over 10 FP in the last three weeks. I would pivot to Keenan.
Zay, Mooney, and Jennings, all #1 WRs for their teams. Lots of potential there.
TE
Jake Ferguson had six straight weeks of double digits, but he’s been under 10 FP for the last four weeks. Only slightly better than Fannin, but the Cowboys’ offense is so much better than the Browns’ that you know you’re getting more scoring opportunities.
K
No
IDP
I would not have guessed Coleman would have the whitest IDP group, but here we are. Three whites and an Blasian named Kyle. Not going anywhere with this. Just dot-connecting.
Kennedy has the #1 IDP, he’s got his tender Bobbys, and he’ll figure out what to do at DB.
Feels like this is Coleman’s last gasp. A loss this week, a 100-point deficit for the playoff tiebreaker, he would be pretty tempted to buy back into next year’s draft. Too bad Cameron already spent his 2nd trading for Jeanty. Coleman almost has to hope that if he misses the playoffs it’s because Shelby made it. She’s the only one giving you a 2nd for Mahomes (who you can keep but not over STA-CLE). Cameron needs QB, but I wouldn’t consider him a QB away from a complete roster.
You know what: don’t worry about. Eat, snack, and nap. This will all work itself out.
