My strategy of hoping Cameron’s players play poorly was executed to perfection. Not only did I bench my highest scoring player for his career-high, I did it so I could start a timeshare RB on the receiving end of a blowout, AND that RB scored 30 times as many points as Lamar. My bench god T-Mac scored 300 times as many points as Lamar this week. Josh Allen scored 550 times as many points as Lamar. But it could have been worse. At 0.12, Lamar outscored Ricky Pearsall (0), Khalil Shakir (-0.3), Lucas Havrisik (real person, I’m sure, -1), and that’s just starters from Oliver and Corey’s matchup.
Cam got demolished, but not by me. Drake London lost his QB and then sprained his knee. Quentin Lake is probably headed to IR. Ashton Jeanty’s team isn’t interested in running the ball. Pete Carroll said after the game, “I don’t really care about pleasing people with our run/pass mix. I’m trying to move the football.” So not even their own head coach believes they can move the ball by running, and the stats back it up: Raiders are the worst team in the league in yards before contact; against the Cowboys, they ran it eight times for 13 yards, including a safety where Jeanty was swallowed up by three defenders a full two yards behind the line of scrimmage. So far the Raiders, Kennedy, and Cameron have blown high picks on Jeanty. I think Cam’s stuck holding the bag; Jeanty’s remaining schedule is Browns, Chargers, Broncos, Eagles, and Texans, then he probably drops 30 on the Giants in Week 17 to help Cam avoid a last place loss to Oliver.
This week explains why I keep sending out trade offers and then withdrawing them. I’m one piece away, but like the Joker says, I wouldn’t know what to do with it if I got it. This should have been the third time this season I lost because of a truly dumb lineup decision. (All right, maybe starting Derwin doesn’t qualify, but this was at least Le Morte D’Alton Part Two, which is extra fucked because betting on the Panthers lost me the first one and betting against the Panthers lost me the second. I hate the Panthers. I am the Panthers.)
Justin Herbert delivered 30 times as many fantasy points as Lamar this week, and he was Shelby’s worst player. Evan’s worst player was Dallas, who outscored Herbert by half as many points as Lamar’s total. Evan’s best player outscored Shelby’s best player. His IDPs had 11 more tackles than Shelby’s, so like a full player having a good week more. Evan scored more TDs than Shelby did. Cue Padme asking, “So he won the game, right?” Not even close, Senator. I think there was a brief window where Evan had the green bar, but he never had a lead. Of course he had like half his team playing in the final two games, while Shelby had 10/12 players done by the time the witching hour was over.
There are 13 players with over 900 yards from scrimmage. One for each of us, right? One for Coleman, one for Shelby, one for Evan, mm, I see the problem: two for Spe, two for Corey, SIX FOR SEAN?! If you want a snapshot of the significance of scrimmage yards, here is where everyone’s top player ranks:
1 Spe
2 Sean
3 Corey
6 Evan
7 Shelby
10 Coleman
14 Max
15 Doak
16 Cam
17 Brian
27 Kennedy
40 Oliver
In terms of power rankings, the top three and bottom three look right.
Another thing that stood out about this matchup was IDP scoring. Sean’s IDPs dropped 49; Coleman’s dropped 59. There were only four teams above 150 this week. Three of them scored between 49-60 IDP points. The other was Spencer, who had a 19-point IDP and four offensive skill players above 20 FP. Max had a 55-point game from Allen and finished fifth in scoring because he can’t get IDP right more than one week in a row.
Personally, Sean winning benefits my playoff chase. It gives me a full-game lead and a significant points advantage over the three teams tied for sixth place right now. It’s starting to look like the 6-seed will come down to a points-tiebreaker among seven-win teams.
Really seemed like Brian was gonna deliver. Either a win or a trade, or even just a Jameis start. Just give us some action. Starting Aaron Rodgers in 2025 is such a lay down and die type move. At least give us Flacco 2.0 in Brissett. Had Brian just stacked Brissett and Wilson, he would have scored about 50 more FP and hit his season high. As good as Rodgers and Tez might be, they just never had that ceiling, and when you’re on the brink of elimination, when you’re near the bottom of the league in scoring, you have to chase ceiling. This isn’t really targeted at Brian. This is me learning out loud.
If Corey can figure out K, DL, and DX, he’s taking over the league. He got just 2.5 total from those three spots, not to mention just 8 from his flex duo. He can expect an easy 15 more FP from just playing a little more strategically: dome kickers, DLs facing QBs with high sack numbers, LB with high tackle numbers for the DX spot. I think you’re looking at a 10-point boost to your floor and a 30-point boost to your ceiling. Corey is getting Bucky back, Michael Wilson is good to go for at least one more week, and there are still a few free agents left giving you double what you get from Mims or Chubb on average. Corey is three good guesses away from being in the melee-win zone every week.
Oliver has rolled over. He’s just dying to see how much shipping costs are to deliver the Jerry all the way to France. Sorry Elle, you’ll have to wait an extra year to go to college because your dad dipped into your [French equivalent of a 529] to add 35-year-old Travis Kelce when nobody else bid, and when he could have spent half that amount to put together a whole team at that point.
Spencer led the league in points and extended their winning streak to 8. Kennedy hit a season-high for the third time in four week, but he’s lost two of those, and now he’s on a three-game losing streak. Spencer is now one win away from clinching a playoff bye. Kennedy is no longer eligible to get a bye in the pick ladder, so his focus should be figuring out the Week 15 slate, making sure he wins that week to avoid even having to play in the Jerry Bowl in Week 16. So far, this is the optimal lineup:
QB Brock vs.TEN
RB Tracy vs.WAS
WR Addison @DAL
WR Zay @CIN
TE Andrews @CIN
FX Jauan vs.TEN
FX [needs attention]
Right now, it’s Tre Tucker @PHI, Monangai vs.CLE, P.Wash vs.NYJ, Gadsden @KC. I don’t believe in any of those guys in those matchups. Looking at available, you see Rhamondre vs.BUF (lol, Kennedy just dropped him), Brian Robinson @TEN (getting in early on a CMC injury/rest scenario), Darius Slayton vs.WAS, Jets #1 (Metchie or Mitchell) @JAX
DL Garrett vs.CHI
LB Bobbys vs. each other
DB Moehrig @NO
Solid IDP crew. No notes. Would love to see you take some more exciting fliers on offense. Tucker’s remaining schedule (CLE, LAC, DEN, PHI, HOU) plus bad vibes makes him droppable right now. His three double-digit scores this season come against only the deepest green matchups. Parker Washington is droppable because he’s unkeepable and borderline unplayable if all three of Jakobi, BTJ, and Strange are healthy, especially since the Jags prefer to run the ball. I would start Brian Robinson among all the players mentioned.
Lamar and Henry vs. a wack-ass Jets team. Tee Higgins WR1 in Joe Flacco’s last ride. Jameson low-key becoming WR1 in Detroit in a shootout with Jameis in the latter’s final audition for next year. T-Mac fresh off a 30-piece, guaranteed to cause me pain. Swift against a top-5 rush defense but as part of a top-5 rush offense, plus he’s the third-down/two-minute back? Smash. Dreamy Ka’imi, who I won this week by outbidding Sean by exactly $1, inject it into my veins, outscoring one of Brian’s RBs on Thursday night. My IDPs are gold, and I’m only a little sad I dropped Hunter, but he didn’t do shit until the Bills’ starting RT got hurt, so even though 16 FP would be nice, I think Quincy, who I won in another bid against Sean, will still flirt with 10 FP.
Brian starts Jameis in the right week to start Jameis. The Lions O will shred the Giants D, and Jameis will have to throw the ball 45 times, and Jameis will throw at least 3 TDs, scoring a minimum 20 FP. Brian had a scary CeRBerus performance last week, with 75 from Marks, Henderson, and Tucker. Marks was supposed to pick up where Tucker left off against the Bills, but he was tackled just short of TDs multiple times. Tucker should get more work this week, but he goes from facing a bottom-5 run defense to a top-10, so he’s under 20 FP. Henderson faces the worst run D, but he’s back to a timeshare with Rhamondre. I still expect 20 FP there, too, but we’re talking about a net loss of about 20 FP from the three RBs, nearly cancelled out by a 15-point boost at the QB spot. Brian’s erstwhile elite WR room is down to Tez Johnson and Chris Godwin, but lucky for Brian, the Rams lost their slot god CB to injury last week. I think the Rams are going to focus on Egbuka, but I don’t think this version of the Bucs offense is just automatically putting up points against a Rams defense that essentially shutout the Jags offense a couple weeks ago. Jared Verse is a problem, and the Bucs’ pass protection has been shaky. Colston Loveland and Brian Branch are Brian’s other best bets for x-factors.
But listen: TJ Watt did not break JJ’s career sack number last week, and the media focus this week has been Myles Garrett breaking TJ’s single-season record. Watt faces the Bears, who suck. His numbers are weak this year. He only has six sacks. This will be the game that gets him back on track to finish close to 15.
The Fleeb is weak. He’s had two of his worst three scores in two of the last three weeks (ignore what happened the other week, and ignore what his third-worst score is). Shelby’s playing with nothing to lose. She’s got Flacco 2.0 in Brissett, she’s got the solid matchup against the Jags, she gets to take some of the sting out of another 20-piece for McBride, and I think the Jags’ best position group is Oluokun and Lloyd, both of whom can hang with McBride. There’s still time for Shelby to pick up Dortch for the stack. Wilson would have been better, but you take what you can get. I might even be interested in adding a Boutte or Hollins to go against Maye, but the Pats spread the ball enough that you’re at significant risk of getting nothing. Right now Shelby’s starting Wan’Dale, who just isn’t Jameis’ type of WR. If you’re not trying to make Dortch happen, I would honestly take the cheese in the Browns news dump this week, lean into the Shedeur-centric gameplan, and bet on 15 targets and 2 TDs for Jerry Jeudy.
Shelby had a minor IDP advantage before the games started, and Will Anderson pushed it to a full advantage, a necessary advantage with Sean’s overwhelming advantage at WR and TE. The keys to this matchup for Shelby are: win big at IDP (and win cash), and keep pace with Sean’s RBs. Jonathan Taylor is going to be the focal point for KC’s pretty solid run defense. Javonte Williams is facing an Eagles D that significantly upgraded its front seven in the past two weeks. In those two games, they held the Packers and Lions under 10 points apiece, which no other defense has done to either of those offenses. The Cowboys might be better than either, but the Eagles (especially the D) come into this with so much reckoning on their minds. They barely lost to the Cowboys after Jalen Carter was ejected during the first drive for spitting, and it was still a bottom-three game for the Cowboys’ offense. I think the Eagles fucking wreck their shit. Rico Dowdle is gonna be just fine. 20 FP. But you’re talking 40-50 FP total for Sean’s RBs, and Shelby can exceed that with Warren vs. a Bears D with no LBs, Gibbs vs. a tragic Giants run D, and Chase Brown who has over 100 yards in four straight games. It’s at least even, and against anyone but JT, Shelby would have a clear advantage.
I think it’s enough. It comes down to Brissett staying hot. Shelby getting lucky at WR wouldn’t hurt, but she can get by. There’s also just the slightest chance that the Bucs hyperfocus on shutting down Puka. The slightest chance. I would bracket him with Tykee and Winfield just for the physical punishment. I don’t think Davante at this point is going to dominate our corners. A couple TDs, sure. But 100 yards or whatever on top, nah. And of course, we’ve got the run bottled up. The real problem, as we all probably know, is pass rush, BUT the Rams are down their starting RT. If we can play games that make Stafford think we’re exploiting that side but then we actually send heat right up the middle, we can get him off his spot and throwing nasty picks.
Shelby has a gift for finding white MLBs. Jack Sanborn was pitching in 10 a game for here a couple years ago, and now she found Nate Landman, who the Rams just signed to a nice extension. Edge Cooper has been okay, but you know who’s looking really good? Carson Schwesinger. Ah, shit, Kennedy snagged him. Damn, Jack Campbell is gone, too. Shelby sleeping on her gifts over there. Hmm… Cody Barton revenge game against Seattle? Back to the Anzalone well? I’m pretty sure he had a nice run for you once or twice in the last five years.
Cameron didn’t deserve to go down the way he did last week. Once I benched T-Mac and Lamar scored 0.12, that should have been it. Oh, the last play of the Packers game, where Parsons scored 10 FP (reduced to 7 after they deemed Parsons didn’t recover the fumble but merely had the strip-sack), that was a clear sign it just wasn’t my week. It took a 40-yd Jameson TD, the only Lions TD of that game, for me to barely get above 120 FP. But while a third of my team crapped out, a full half of Cam’s did the same or worse. Bo Nix had as many points as Amon-Ra, Ladd, and Jeanty combined, which sounds great until you find out Nix only scored 13.
Put another way, Cam’s Week 11 was the equivalent of him having to fire a blank off to the side of the screen in order to reload. He’s coming into Week 12 with a full clip, including a third mid QB in the mix. Max has already fallen victim to the Josh Allen honey pot. Allen dropped 55 to give Max a win last week, and even though he would follow it with a short week against the top defense, there was no way to bench him. In fact, most people in team DST leagues benched the Texans. And rightly so. If not for an injury to the Bills starting RT, I think Allen would have been fine, like 20 FP, on par with Jared Goff. But now that we know Allen bombed and Max benched Goff and Jameis faces the Giants, yes, obviously Goff will lead Mortydome in FP this week. And just behind him will be Bryce Young, just as Young finished second to Josh Allen last week. Because ultimately the NFL is focused on making money, but once that’s in the bag, then they are primarily about twisting specifically Max’s testicles with games like these. Like you should never start Jared Goff. Your real problem is having Goff on the roster. You don’t ever want to know what would have happened if you’d benched Josh Allen because you never want to bench Josh Allen. Keep all those other QBs in free agency, and keep those what-ifs too complicated to care about.
So while it’s nice for Cameron that Josh Jacobs might not play or that Nico had a weak game, or that Max is flexing Tweedleshid and Tweedlechaad, these are just details. Cameron’s win is destiny, plain and simple. Bryce Young torching the 49ers on Monday night is just a shooting star that you think is granting a wish that the universe really had in store the whole time.
Tre Tucker aside, this might be the best lineup Kennedy has set since Omarion Hampton got hurt. Gotta get Monangai in there, even in a tough matchup. Tre Tucker? Do you understand that Aidan O’Connell might enter this game for the Raiders? Against an elite Browns defense. At least start Mooney. Actually pivot to Jeudy, but if you must start someone who is on the roster right now, make it Monangai or Mooney. Drop Tucker. Drop him outright. Don’t look back. This whole Raider gambit was doomed from the start. Release yourself from these silver and black shackles!
But against Oliver, it doesn’t matter. Oliver’s starting lineup wouldn’t even compete in a 16-team league. He is pivoting to Allegeier because Vidal is on bye. That’s how dire this situation is. Oliver really asked the monkey paw for Travis Kelce to lead his team in points each week, and the monkey paw was like, bro, you don’t have to do this, and Oliver said I’ll break it myself if I have to. Oliver is the only person capable of evoking a shrug from a disembodied hand.
Kennedy has put together a really good IDP group despite the Bobby of it all. Oliver is drunk-dialing IDPs every Saturday night, and whoever he wakes up with Sunday gets to start in his DX spot.
Kennedy has the circle of red shells, and Oliver is the only car he has a chance of catching. He’ll win this week, rig the rivalry to face Oliver again, win, and knock Oliver into last place heading into the melee, where 999 times out of 1000 Oliver loses, which might seem like nothing, but it means Kennedy faces Brian in the first round of the pick ladder instead of one of the decent teams. Kennedy avoids last place in the regular season and the postseason. Masterful gambit, sir.
Corey probably needed to drop Stroud. He definitely needs to drop Aiyuk. This week’s news makes it pretty likely the 49ers don’t activate him this year, but it could just be stirring up drama to create an advantage BUT Corey needs to win and to score serious points while doing it. Spencer is a tough matchup, but Corey doesn’t have the luxury of biding time for a week. I don’t think a 7-7 record is good enough to get in without a points tiebreaker, among the teams seeded 6-10 right now, Corey is 3rd in scoring, but he’s closer to being last than he is to being 2nd. And in the case of a five-way tiebreaker for the 6-seed, it has never been truer that if you’re not first, you’re last.
Corey can fill his lineup simply by flexing Pitts and dropping Mims and Luvu for IDPs. But that’s not gonna cut it. It would be a forfeit in spirit and would ultimately cost him the playoffs. I would flex Jeudy, but if that’s a non-starter, you could
At DB, my favorite are McKinney against McCarthy, Kevin Byard against Mason Rudolph, and Nick Emmanwori against the Titans. But Shelby kind of struck gold with Nahshon Wright, so maybe keep him in the family? The other really good option is Colts nickel Kenny Moore (who Corey’s gotten at least one huge game from in the past) against the Chiefs (Kelce and Rice combining for like 20 targets in the slot).
At DX, you can chase tackles or sacks. You know what I want to do? The Bears are down their best three off-ball LBs, so I’m tempted to start both of their safeties. That means taking Byard from the list above and pairing him with Jaquan Brisker. That’s two really good safeties against a Mason Rudolph offense. The less galaxy-brain approach is just to starting one of those aforementioned DBs and Lavonte.
Spencer made a foolish move of dropping Cross, but it worked out, and it’s instructive. For the most part, IDPs are interchangeable. Every now and then you find a stud and you know it, but if there’s even a question in your mind of whether you can drop a guy, he’s probably no big deal. Cross is confirmed good but also no big deal. Kamari Lassiter, on the other hand, might be that dude at DB. Because he plays opposite Stingley, he sees a lot of targets, and because he’s a great corner, he records a lot of PDs and INTs. At worst, he gets tackles. This is the Da’Ron Bland formula that Spencer cashed in on a couple years ago and that only true sickos can hope to cash in on in the future. It’s very rare because it’s very rare that a corner is good two years in a row. Corners are like baseball closers. Even the elites can just suddenly implode overnight.
James Cook’s 40-yard TD against the Texans kinda fucks up my pick here, but we ride anyway.
Look, I’m down for being on the bandwagon for Joe Flacco’s last ride, but with no Chase, it’s not sexy. I also don’t love Mahomes against a Lou Anarumo defense, and what we know now is that Coleman missed the window to pivot to Flacco 2.0 in Brissett. I don’t actually like Coleman’s team on paper. I’m mostly just rooting for chaos as Coleman has a chance to bring Evan to 6-6 after a 5-0 start. I wish I were better at math so I could just look at the standings and know whether Shelby and Brian’s playoff odds increase more from Evan winning or from Coleman winning. I assume more teams having the potential to go 6-8 is better, which improves Shelby AND Brian’s odds, but Coleman dropping to seven losses right now probably improves Shelby OR Brian’s odds.
My favorite result would be Cam, Coleman, and Corey losing while Brian and Shelby win, giving us five 5-7 teams vying for one playoff spot with two weeks to go.
Bad matchups dominate this game between Coleman and Evan.
BakenEggs face a top-5 team, Jefferson and Jones faces the Packers in Lambeau, Rice faces a great nickel on a great defense whose DC looks at Chiefs game like a Gooble Boxer looks at a slow ramp. Byron Young faces Tristan Wirfs, Jack Campbell faces Jameis for a lot of throwing and throwing outside the hashes, Jeremy Chinn is a random number between 4 and 12. Goedert and Baun are probably fine.
Mahomes faces obsessed, sweaty, lick-lipping Colts DC. Kyren faces Vita Vea. Lamb and Ferg face a legendary team-level ass-kicking. Romeo Doubs I don’t take seriously as a fantasy player. That STA flex-stack is kinda making me feel like I’m looking at a slow ramp, though. And this is where the tide turns in Coleman’s favor. Those RBs have plus matchups, Maxx Crosby faces the fucking king of stupid sacks in Shedeur, Kaden Elliss faces a bottom-five team, Kyle Hamilton against the wack-ass Jets, and Robert S. Time, Esq. faces a Ja’Marr-less Bengals team that was already giving Chase Brown 25 touches per game.
Sleeper has this being the tightest matchup of the week, and I agree. I think whoever wins does so by single digits, and I lean Coleman because of the STAs and IDPs.
Spencer clinches a playoff bye with a win.
Sean clinches a bye with a win and a Max loss.
Max clinches a playoff berth with a win or Corey and Coleman losses. He’s probably a lock anyway, but this way sleeper will give him the green check.
I think with the points, I clinch a playoff berth with a win, but I don’t think sleeper will give me the check because of the non-zero chance I lose 50 points per game worth of ground to multiple teams.
Oliver is eliminated with a loss or with a Cam, Corey, or Coleman win.
Brian is eliminated in spirit with a loss and Cam, Corey and Coleman wins.
I think everyone else is in limbo for an extra week, but Rivalry Week matchups can change the math real quick. If I were a team on the bubble, and I thought I had a chance to make the playoffs, I would wait until next Sunday/Monday to sell for picks.
