Tis hard to see the mighty prancing war horse, trampling the dying and dead beneath their merciless feet. No dear wife, near to speak a word of comfort. No living sister or Mother to administer relief in that hour the most sad in the history of humanity. O the humanity. O the horrors of war. Truly it may be considered the most cruel and awful scourge which can befall a nation. Heaven grant there may be an end soon. (Samuel D. Lougheed letter to his wife Jane "Jennie" Lougheed, October 7, 1862)
My loss to Max is hitting me hard, Dearest Jennie. Cameron texted me to let me know I’m third in scoring and only .500. To my comfort, Sean and Spencer are 250 and 100 FP ahead of me, while I’m within 60 FP of the three people behind me. .500 is fine. It’s annoying that Max and Evan have better records, more annoying that I fucked myself by starting Derwin against my better judgment when like 50 other IDPs would have won me the week. But we press on.
Sean had a meh start to the week with just 28 combined from Maye and Hall, but Coleman’s not even starting Flacco. He’s whiffing on a couple of lineup decisions. Bring on the tink! I am not kidding about starting Flacco. He faces a Steelers defense that faces the most pass attempts and allows the most yards in addition to being below average in yards per attempt, meaning teams believe the Steelers are gettable through the air, and teams are right. The Broncos have allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt and the fewest passing TDs. On the other hand, regression!
Sean is also playing without Jonathan Taylor, so the perfect storm is brewing for Coleman. He should be able to get away with starting Mahomes, and though he might be able to get away with starting Romeo Doubs (who returns punts now eyeballs emoji), I’d rather pivot to one of the Chargers WRs against that trash Jags D. Doubs has been on a heater, so it makes sense to give him one more week.
So the overall trend here is that Sean has superior players, and Coleman has bad matchups. Waddle, Puka, McBride, Dowdle, and Javonte should combine for 80-100, Sean now has the top two tacklers, and Van Ginkel is back to clogging the stat sheet. Sean will be far below his season average but probably close to 150. Coleman can only get 150 with a lot of TDs. Lamb is his only player realistically touching 100 yards. I’m guessing if Coleman gets 10 TDs from his six skill players, then he’s got a shot. And that’s assuming Mahomes hits at least 20 and Kaden Ellis has a huge game.
After winning four of his first five, Coleman is probably about to lose his fifth in his last six. With the expansion of the middle class, Coleman is going to be in limbo for the trade deadline. Having already dumped a 2nd and 4th, he’s more or less made his choice unless get gets some offers that get him back to baseline for next season.
Kennedy is also about to take his fifth loss in six games, but in his case, it’s an infinite improvement over his first five weeks. Spencer doesn’t give a shit about Kennedy’s redemption arc. All Spencer cares about is the Eagles, 49ers, Jags, and von Achane. The Jakobi Meyers trade was great for Meyers and the Jags, but it kind of screws Spencer. Though Meyers has more value, man, you can’t be starting two Jags. We learned this last year (or maybe it was two years ago? Whenever Spe was Jags’ JAGS). At least they’re the best two Jags? Not quite the case for the Eagles. The issue with this Eagles’ offense is that it’s never been able to sustain Hurts, Barkley, AJB, and DeVonta. But there are plenty of games where Hurts and the two WRs eat. The trio combined for 61 against the Rams and 87 against the Vikings. However they combined for 25 against KC, 32 against TB, and 32 against GB. The Rams and Vikings games were insane. Rams led 19-7 at half and 26-7 in the 3rd, then allowed the Eagles to score 26 unanswered, including the Jordan Davis FG block returned for a TD. The Vikings game was a Wentz special. He threw two picks, fumbled, and got injured with, like, a lot of time left (the following week, he got season-ending injured). They host Detroit on Monday night, and it should resemble their matchups against the Chiefs, Bucs, and Packers. However, it’s also an AJ Brown squeaky wheel game, so you’ve gotta start him, you’ve gotta start Hurts with Dart concussed, and DeVonta is the only game in town with Pittman on bye. Because of these factors, and because Detroit is better against the run than the pass, I would assume 50 FP combined between Hurts and Brown, so the trio can get to 60.
Meanwhile, Achane, Kittle, CMC, and Etienne are going to combined for 100. Whatever Spe gets from the IDPs (not much, if Marcus Jones is any indication) will be gravy.
Kennedy might have a math advantage if he starts the Purdy-Jauan stack against CMC and Kittle. The 49ers passing offense against the Cards is a better bet than the Bears passing offense against the Vikings. Tyrone Tracy is a timeshare back facing an elite Packers run D, and Parker Washington gets covered by Derwin. Zay and Andrews play in 25 MPH winds, so Kennedy needs to overhaul this lineup. I’d make these changes:
QB Caleb Purdy
RB Tracy Monangai
WR Addison
WR Flowers Jauan
TE Andrews Gadsden
FX Tre Tucker (vs. DAL)
FX ???
That second flex spot could go to Tracy, Zay, Andrews, or Washington. Reasonably, you say fuck weather and go with your best player in Zay. Windy weather should force Baltimore to throw short, and they can feast on screens and whip routes with Zay. Tracy is interesting because of his speed and pass-catching, but Jameis doesn’t tend to utilize his backs in the passing game. More often, he goes deep or takes sacks rather than check it down. And ever since his overlap with FitzMagic, he tends to tuck and run rather than use his safety valve.
Bobby Okereke has a shoulder injury, so even if he plays, you’re not counting on a lot of tackles. I imagine he gets knocked out of the game after one good truck from Josh Jacobs. Let Bobby Time go.
Oliver isn’t even trying to field a team anymore. He continues to get away with the backup RB scam, with RJ Harvey the most recent beneficiary. Oliver has also added Corum and Allgeier, so Coleman and Corey beware.
Oliver actually has a fine chance of winning this one. Corey’s still down Bucky, and GW is probably out for the year, so Corey is starting the decaying corpse of Nick Chubb again, and he’s got a flex decision between Marvin Mims and Kyle Pitts. Both are flex-worthy, but Mims has been in double digits six of eight weeks while Pitts has only gotten there three of nine. I might pivot to Michael Wilson, who will lead the Cards WRs in snaps, targets, and catches (though probably slot in behind McBride on all three counts). Cards-49ers should be high-scoring, and Brissett has some huge completions to Wilson already.
This matchup hinges on Corey’s studs Stafford, Bijan, JSN, and Bowers. Stafford faces an elite Seahawks defense whose scheme is built to dismantle McVay’s offense. JSN faces a Rams defense that has like six slot corners, and the Rams DC will be willing to bracket JSN and put the game in the hands of his safeties defending deep balls to Shaheed. It’s going to be a Cooper Kupp game. Actually, forget Michael Wilson. Drop Mims and get Cooper Kupp. Maybe drop Chubb for Michael Wilson. Definitely just drop Chubb with Bucky coming back next week. Don’t roster RBs for the sake of rostering RBs. If you can work your way into the playoff mix, you can trade for a solid RB.
Oliver’s case for winning is volume. He has de facto bell-cows in Vidal and Harvey (though you know Sean Payton will fuck you on that front), top targets in Metcalf, Pearsall, and Sutton, and Travis Kelce has been elite this year. The one area I might tinker is benching Pearsall for fear he might not play much. He could be on a snap count. He could get reinjured. But then again, Shakir is also banged up. But I wouldn’t mind trolling Corey by starting Allgeier, who outscored Bijan 21-13 last week.
I’m picking Corey because his team has the higher ceiling. Oliver’s prospects are far more theoretical. These players’ real performances have been severely lacking.
Shelby both is and is not on a heater. In Weeks 1-6, her highest score was 144, and she was averaging more like 120. In her last four games, she has scores of 194, 157, 125, and 170. However, she’s just 2-2 in those four and 3-7 overall. She faces elimination every week from here on out. But she has the CeRBerus in Gibbs, Warren, and Brown. She has the 40-point-potential QB facing a trash defense, she has the high-ceiling WRs, and though AJ Barner hasn’t fully broken out, he should be the X-factor against the Rams, whose LBs are pretty bad in pass coverage. The Seahawks WR room is so good that Barner might not get matched up on a DB again all year.
Evan has the better names, but he’s lost four of his last five, and he’s maxed out at 151 in those five. This week shouldn’t be great. BakenEggs @ BUF in the snow is unpredictable. Bucs D will shut down James Cook. Justin Jefferson will score 25-30 to lead Evan’s team, but that’s about it. Aaron Jones has been efficient but low ceiling, Goedert will be iced out because of matchup and the AJB squeaky wheel. Rashee Rice will be the focal point for the Broncos’ defense, who held Brock Bowers to one catch on three targets last week. Evan won’t be able to bring himself to bench Rice for Montgomery, and neither would I, but I am predicting Monty to outscore Rice this week. That Travis Hunter injury just sucks. In hindsight, it was bound to happen. The Jags should have focused on his physical development this year, build up his body for NFL punishment rather than focus on his skill development by trying to make him a starter on both sides. We all knew they would screw it up! Now Evan is out here taking lottery tickets at DB, losing a solid 10 ppg even if he hits.
The back half of Shelby’s lineup kicks ass. Evan’s is solid, but Young has been bottled up lately, and Jeremy Chinn is, again, a lottery ticket (a $2-3 scratcher at that). I would probably prefer Wan’Dale over Deebo, but I think it’s about 10 FP either way. Deebo has the TD upside, and I think you have to aim for that ceiling with your season on the line.
Whatever emoji Brian chose for his team name, sleeper doesn’t show it or I just can’t see it. He is the team with no name, and he is very dangerous despite a 4-6 record. He’s 4-1 in his last five, a mere nine points in Week 8 away from being 5-0 (but also he beat Oliver with only 114, so it balanced out). TreVeyon Henderson has arrived. His 30 points on Thursday brings Brian’s win probability to about even odds. He wants to start Jameis, but it’s so hard to bench Rodgers against the Bengals.
The Marvin Harrison appendectomy is such a shitty random event. Harrison is still not living up to the draft hype, but he is a legitimate #1 WR who is benefitting from playing with a QB who, like, learns the playbook and communicates with his teammates. So Brian is forced to pivot at that second flex spot. Right now it looks like Sean Tucker, who appears to be taking the lead role from Chaad. Worth noting that Tucker played his college ball at Syracuse, so he’s probably still accustomed to the weather even after a few years gone.
So QB is the most important thing, but Brian also needs Chase and Marks to keep doing what they’re doing. Brian has “even odds” of winning right now, but that’s with Max’s DL spot empty.
Max is planning to fill that spot with Zach Allen against Creed Humphrey/Trey Smith, so that feels dumb. The move is Quinnen Williams’ Dallas debut. Save that, I’d opt for one of the Chargers’ pass rushers against the Jags.
Max has some advantages. Though the Bucs have a tough defense, Josh Allen can play a pretty shitty game and still hit 25 FP. This season, he has just two games under 25. He had 15 against the Jets; the Bills led 20-3 at half and had 40 runs to 25 passes. Then he had 17 in that fucking weird Atlanta game, where he again only had 26 pass attempts. Following a loss @ Miami, Allen is going to put on a show for the home crowd. OC Joe Brady is going to bring heat in a week where his effectiveness as OC has been directly questioned. Josh Jacobs is the only thing on the Packers offense working, so he’s good for 20 against a rough Giants run D. Davante and Nico should be good. Buuut Ertz, Shaheed, and Chaad don’t give me any confidence. Even Boswell is coming off a miss and faces heavy wind. Max’s IDPs are bad but that didn’t seem to matter last week, so what do I know!
Brian should double Max up in IDP points, outscore him at TE and FX, and probably break even at RB and WR. So while you assume Rodgers outscores Jameis, maybe you just ignore the numbers and lean into the magic that pulled you back from 0-5.
The best time to play against me is when I’m at or above .500. I tend to stay within two games of .500 for most of the season. Two years ago, I earned the 2-seed at 8-6. The last time I finished the year more than two games above .500, I went 10-3 and won it all. The last time I finished more than two games below .500 was maybe never. Hasn’t happened going back to 2015, which is the MD modern era anyway.
I’m not worried about going worse than 6-8 this season, but I am preparing my body to go 5-6 this week. Lamar in the Cleveland wind can’t hit ceiling, and even if he has a monster rushing game, then he’s eating Henry’s lunch and not helping me. I’d be very happy with 40 FP combined from them. My other matchups/situations are fine, but Lamar and Henry are the meal ticket combo. Swift, Tee, and Jameson are getting us to ensemble territory, but my second flex is up for grabs, and I just found out Sam LaPorta is going on IR. I’m really strong at K thru IDP, and I’ll have Alec Pierce back for the playoff push.
This week is more about hoping Cameron’s players play poorly. Bo Nix should be trash, but I can also see it being such a mess that he has his season-high in rushing and hits 20 FP anyway. Saquon and London have tough matchups but rock bottom for them is still flirting with 10 points. Ladd has 50-100 yards each of the last five games, and he has a gorgeous matchup against the Jags. Amon-Ra is matchup-proof, but I wonder if he’ll be in his head about the whole Trump Dance thing. I think he’s really surprised that people didn’t like it, and he cares what people think about him. Ashton Jeanty has the golden Dallas matchup, BUT the Cowboys are coming out of a bye with Quinnen Williams joining Kenny Clark on their interior line. I think Jeanty gets his 20 carries, but at 3-3.5 yards per carry and not a lot of first downs, you probably need a TD to score over 10 FP.
Aubrey shankaroonied that 68-yarder the same day that Cam Little set the record. And he’s had two weeks to think about it. And he doesn’t really care, but he also can’t fully remove it from his consciousness. But if the Cowboys are settling for field goals against the Raiders, they can just pack up the season. Micah Parsons sucks now? And Aidan Hutchinson is cold-ish with just one sack in his last three games. Can’t imagine the Eagles’ line is going to be the one to let him get right, but they are also the most likely line to not offer their tackles chip help regardless of who’s rushing. Obviously I love Quentin Lake, and Foye Oluokun is good for 10 FP.
TJ Watt only had 2.5 FP last time he faced Flacco, and it should be the same this time around, but you don’t bench TJ Watt. Danielle Hunter is a flier I needed after getting too many weak games from Derwin. Hunter had 30 FP last week against the Jags, so I should probably bench Watt and drop Hunter to start both Chargers edges since they’re facing the Jags, but I’ll take Hunter against this season’s most-sacked QB, and I’ll pair him with Watt, who is half a sack short of tying JJ’s career total, so you just know he’s getting one.
Cam’s in a weird spot, though. He’s two players over the roster limit, with London and Ridley questionable. If neither are ruled out, he has to drop two players just to be able to start Otton at TE. Get your offers in for his bench players right now or early tomorrow morning. Or watch that chat feed closely because Xavier Worthy and Calvin Ridley are about to be available fo’ free (but also, they suck).
I’m starting a TE, but why? Well, because I didn’t have the balls to add/start Jameis, and Theo Johnson might just be Jameis’ de facto WR1 this week. I also added Juwan Johnson for some long-term security, and I offered Kennedy a 6th for Andrews, so everyone go tell Kennedy that’s more than fair, and maybe I’ll throw in $10 FAAB. You’ve got your Gadsden don’t be greedy.
Week 13 is Rivalry Week. Kennedy can either pick rivalry matchups or make rivalry rules—or both? Does anyone care? Doesn’t he deserve to have a little fun in exchange for all that pain?
The END of Week 13 is the trade deadline. You have until the final snap of the Monday night game to get deals done.
Week 14 is a melee and the final week of the regular season.
Weeks 15-17 are the playoffs and pick ladder. Top two teams in each bracket get byes. Playoff re-seed each round, meaning the top seed plays the bottom seed remaining in Round 2. First round: 3 plays 6, 4 plays 5. Second round: 1-seed plays the lowest seed remaining, so if 6 wins, they play 6, but if 3 wins, then 1 plays the winner of 4-5.
Cash game goes through Week 16.
I don’t think any of us are properly prepared for the utter ass-kicking the Bucs will take this Sunday. It’s not that the Bills are better, it’s that the Bills fans are going to be going fucking nuts. First snow of the season, homecoming, they probably think Baker is a tool… I’m holding out hope for a scenario where we get our asses kicked but somehow escape with a win. Tis hard to see a scenario under these circumstances where we end up kicking their collective ass.
