This first segment is brought to you by random crap I glommed onto while doom-scrolling BlueSky.
Brian’s sandwich exploded this week, and though he only scored 114 FP, he faced the one team that scored fewer. He used Jayden Daniels as a human shield and Tucker Kraft’s lifeless body as a battering ram. It can’t feel good. There’s no way. I mean, it feels better than getting hit with the exploded sandwich and expecting anyone to care, which is the position Oliver is in. But whatever Brian’s feeling, he is still simply at his limit and not yet over it. I can’t say for sure what it will cost to get Ja’Marr if/when Brian exceeds that limit, but I can say this is my personal ranking of players who I expect to become available for trade:
1. JSN (1st)
2. Ja’Marr (1st)
3. Bijan (2nd)
4. Gibbs (2nd)
5. Bowers (3rd)
6. AJ Brown (3rd)
7. Mahomes (3rd)
8. Mike Evans
9. TreVeyon
Evan was wayyy closer to winning than the 20-point deficit suggests. Darnold took his foot off the gas in the second half; James Cook, Aaron Jones, and Ernie Jones got hurt. If those players just play the entire game, Evan probably wins a squeaker. Instead, Max pulls even with Evan for third place (separated by just 33 FP in Evan’s favor after Max closed the gap by 24 this week). Eight wins is pretty much a lock for a playoff spot unless the lower class starts eating the rich and keeps eating until we’re all .500, wearing matching jumpsuits, and eating pills for dinner.
I’m winning with a bad team, preventing myself from being able to sell, stuck in the chase despite not feeling competitive, crying about having a playoff team. It’s appropriate that I’m riding the Panthers. I feel like the Panthers. I am simultaneously enjoying my winning record and accepting my impending doom. I am regretting not going all-in on the Panthers by adding Dowdle (for free!) when I knew Chuba would miss that one game.
Spencer took down Sean, and even though it happened on Sean’s worst week, Spencer did outscore Sean’s (insanely high) weekly average in the process, while Sean was arguably closer to full strength (only Breece on bye) than Spe (Hurts and Smith on bye). We’re never colluding against anyone. Spencer made that evident last year by trading Josh Allen to Sean when we all silently agreed Sean was our Palpatine. But something about trading a QB to Sean last season poisoned that QB upon arrival. I think we all agree that when we set our lineups against Sean, we’re especially anxious to get it exactly right. I think this win by Spencer restores hope in the galaxy and brings balance to the force. It also puts a target on Spencer’s back, but this is not a great time to get hot. It’ll be nice to secure that 1-seed, but Sean is still in line for a first-round bye, and he’s just gotten one more dud week out of the way. Right now, Sean’s pattern is one off, seven on, one off. If he wins his next seven games, then that sets him up to lose the championship, which means every playoff team is 17% more likely to win it all. It does. It means that. It means Sean is cooked, and making the playoffs has meaning again. All right, I’m back in!
Kennedy made a calculated overpay to draft Jeanty in the 1st, and then Cameron made a calculated overpay to trade a 2nd for Jeanty after Kennedy’s season went splat. It seems like it’s working out for both of them. Jeanty should get Cameron just above the playoff fringe, meaning Kennedy should get a pick in the 13-18 range. Overpaying for an everyweek starter is smart. A key difference between fantasy football and real football is the ability to compete with a top-heavy roster, with a big-three and some role players. Jeanty isn’t necessarily part of Cam’s big three overall (I’d go SunGod, Saquon, London), but was Cam’s second highest scorer last week, delivering a crucial tight win with Saquon on bye.
I’ll admit it: I counted Corey out. He was too injured, his record was too bad, he was a lock to lose to Shelby, he wasn’t competitive in the points standings, Matt Stafford was ready to self-destruct. Well, now it feels like Corey has an answer at QB to go with elite-elite players at RB, WR, and TE. His IDPs are still mostly trash, but if you’re gonna be trash anywhere, that’s the spot. It’s the easiest fix, especially if you’re good at DB. When in doubt, just chase tackles or sacks at the three other spots (tackles for stability, sacks for volatility… with that offense, Corey can afford to go either way).
Oliver already ate a significant heap of shit on Thursday night, starting four players and getting 26 points. Bonitto’s 14.5 is cool, but it doesn’t nearly make up for a combined 6.5 between a starting RB and WR. With this impending loss, Oliver is dead enough to sell off AJ Brown and Mahomes, assuming he can get a 2nd or 3rd for each. Any offer lower isn’t worth it. Trade deadline is still three weeks away. Plenty of time for desperation to rise.
The case for Oliver winning is this: Spe has a bunch of brutal matchups, and Hurts (@GB with the Eagles center out) over Dart (@CHI) is going to cost you. There’s nothing to be done about the other bad matchups. Spencer can’t avoid them, and Oliver can’t take advantage. Oliver’s starting JJ McCarthy, and McCarthy will probably be his highest scoring player as he fights tooth and nail to get above 100 FP. Spencer can follow in Brian’s footsteps and be the second consecutive team to finish a week 11th in scoring and win.
Spencer clinches a playoff berth by notching an 8th win and having a 200-point cushion over the bottom six teams. While it’s tempting to make a big trade and start to establish dominance from the #1 spot, I think you’re better off waiting until the deadline to increase the odds of acquiring a player who will be healthy for the playoffs.
(Update: Oliver traded AJB and Kittle to Spencer for Hunter Henry, Shakir, a 3rd, and a 10th; I view it as two moves: the 3rd for Brown and then 75 cents on the dollar for Kittle. It’s giving poison pill with the bad Eagles matchup and Kittle unlikely to be that dude until Brock Purdy comes back.)
Brian’s recent FAAB spree: $18 for Cam Ward, $39 for Bam Knight, $45 for Michael Penix, $33 for Colston Loveland. A week later he drops Ward to spend $3 on Tez Johnson. Aside from the Loveland bid, these were all unopposed (though technically Oliver put in a $0 bid for Knight). Aside from Knight, these are solid late-keep fliers. But Brian clearly could have saved a lot of FAAB here, with his eyes on trading a stack for a 5th rounder.
Brian’s team is really bad, and there’s no good reason he should win. I’m predicting shenanigans. Bad players in bad matchups are multiplying negatives and scoring just enough to drop Cameron in a week where London and Barkley should struggle and where Cam is already behind the eight-ball after getting just 10 from his QB. Brian will get season-highs from Henderson and Tez for sure, and Michael Penix is going to throw four TDs to Pitts and Bijan. The case for Bam and Marv against an elite defense is that defense having to play this week without their green dot. It’s just enough to turn them into an average defense, not lined up correctly against the run, not prepared to adjust on the fly as Marv moves all over the formation with Brissett understanding that this ten-game stretch could buy him a solid five more years of $5-10M per year. Maybe Brian should just start Brissett. It’ll feel better than rooting for the Falcons.
If Cameron loses this game, and Danny Dimes doesn’t rediscover the magic from the first eight games, and the Colts lose two straight before an 11-hour flight before a bye week, Cameron has to seriously consider buying in deeper and trading a good pick for a good QB. He won’t. That’s not his style. And he shouldn’t. He should look ahead to the next two weeks, realize he’s forced into starting Nix vs.KC and then Dimes @KC, look at waivers, find out Rodgers gets the Bengals and Bears those two week, then you can go Nix vs.WAS in Rivalry Week, Dimes @JAX in the final melee, and then cruise through the playoffs with Rodgers vs. MIA, Nix vs. JAX, and climax to perfection with Dimes vs. JAX.
If you’re devising a strategy to take advantage of a single defense, the Jags are a decent bet. They’ve been “good against the run” with the third-fewest yards allowed and the sixth fewest yards per carry and fourth fewest TDs. But they’re allowing the fifth most passing yards and third most passing TDs. (“Regression!” someone shouts from the back, followed by the sounds of a struggle followed by a gunshot.) They suck.
The three other contenders are the ‘Ders, Bears, and Bengals. Dallas has been bad, but the acquisition of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, combined with the Hurricane Katrina level motivator for this Cowboys team, Marshawn Kneeland’s suicide. They’re gonna wear his number, they’re gonna tell his stories, they’re gonna beat the fucking shit out of people. I’m not benching anyone against the Cowboys, but I’m not targeting them anymore. If they come out flat out of the bye against Vegas next week, then I’m interested again. But so here are those schedules:
You can’t target the Ders because all of their opponents from Week 13 on are on rosters and will probably stay on rosters. Spe lucks out with two playoff games against them. Sadly one of them is Week 15, when Spe will likely have a bye.
Coleman has Jordan Love against the Bears in Weeks 14 and 16. Week 15 it would be Dillon Gabriel (Love plays Denver, which would be a no-go for me).
But you can still get after those Bengals in Weeks 16 and 17, as the QBs for Miami and Arizona are still available. Is the Tua and Brissett? I have no idea. But I’m glad we got back to Brissett, who someone should see the Flacco in between now and kickoff.
I’m rooting for chaos, as I do and as one should. Shelby needs to figure out that second flex. Right now it’s between Keon Coleman (Gabe Davis xerox in the Bills’ eyes) and Wan’Dale (Khalil Shakir xerox in the Giants’ eyes). I think I’d rather take a shot on Josh Downs. He plays the Jags twice, and the Colts reduced their WR depth at the deadline. But it doesn’t really matter what that spot does. Shelby’s team has to flow through Herbert, Gibbs, and Odunze. Shelby’s disrespecting Gibbs in the flex spot right now. Gotta bump him up the marquee if your serious about saving your season. This week should be another 20-piece for Warren. And Shelby’s crushing IDP. It got dark for about three quarters on Sunday, then it turned out pretty good with a sack and a pick in the final five minutes.
Coleman’s freefall continues. If you have to set the perfect lineup to get over 135, you’re in a bad spot. Coleman has five players on bye, which guarantees he’ll set the perfect lineup this week, but that includes flexing a free agent, starting two Browns, and stacking Packers against an Eagles D that’s coming off bye and adding three solid pieces to the front seven. Packers o-line is shaky, and Kraft’s injury takes the queen off the board. Coleman’s hopeful to neutralize Shelby’s Herbert by starting QJ and Keenan, but that’s a floor play. Coleman badly needs Kyren and STA-CLE to carry the team, and I just don’t think it’s enough with them getting equalized by Warren and Gibbs. Coleman has an IDP advantage on paper, but Maxx Crosby’s 3.5 FP on Thursday night defangs it down to an even match with Shelby.
Kennedy understands how to play with nothing to lose. The Tyrone Tracy bid might not work out, but it was the right bid. It was universally assumed that Tracy would become the feature back in that offense, and it might still happen. The Giants are hot-handing it, Singletary happened to break off a 14-yard run to earn a couple extra carries, but Tracy is the “starter.” Going against a weak Bears defense, Tracy just needs one good run in the first quarter to win that split and get on the path to 20 FP. That’s more my expectation, but I’ve always though highly of Singletary, see him as kind of a less explosive MoJoDrew.
This is more about Kennedy sustaining a little hot streak while Corey bounces back and forth between 170 and 110. Corey should get solid outings from Stafford, Bijan, and JSN. Everything else is sketch. Kennedy won’t get another 70 combined from Caleb and Monangai, but he should get a solid floor across the board and win like 130-120. I think we’ll see another insane Myles Garrett game this week against the Jets, and I’m expecting a shootout between the Vikings and Ravens.
Sean’s team glitched in Week 9, partly because the Steelers had a great gameplan and a lot of luck against the Colts, dropping 20 FP off Taylor’s usual score. They didn’t shut down Jonathan Taylor. They shut down Daniel Jones and cut the Colts’ scoring opportunities in half. Atlanta doesn’t have it like that. Taylor will bounce right back. McBride will feast against an Ernie-less Hawks D. Dowdle will keep Dowdling. Puka’s a stud. Sean’s IDPs were trash last week, so he’s absolutely right to fire that exact group up again and get that sweet regression bump this week.
Drake Maye against the Bucs is interesting. Maye has been able to get massive points from extending plays, similar to what we saw from Baker before the Bucs’ last two games. You can’t extend the play against the blitz unless the blitz is ineffective, which is rarely the case from Bowles. Josh McDaniels can scheme up the death-by-papercuts, but Maye is still developing in that area. Forcing Maye to be on time and accurate gives the Bucs the advantage. It shouldn’t be a dog shit game for Maye, but I would expect 20 FP max.
Evan’s best chance and most delicious path to victory would be another massive James Cook game, extremely likely against a trash vibes Dolphins team. I’m not expecting much else in terms of ceiling, which is why I have Sean winning pretty easily, but the rivalry aura can cause the winds to shift and lead to some shenanigans. The Pats look tough on paper, but they have enough holes on offense and defense that align to areas of strength for the Bucs. I’m expecting the defense to force turnovers and for the offense to have cooked up a handful of successful explosives during the bye. Against my better judgment, I envision the Bucs winning like 31-17.
Here is what needs to happen. James Cook needs to take over the game and prevent Allen from scoring any TDs. Because beyond Allen, I am not super worried about any of Max’s players. Davante has 5 TDs in his last two games, but those were trash defenses, and he’s got division opponents the next two weeks. His last division game was only good for 12 FP. Nico Collins faces a trash defense, but he’s catching passes from Davis Mills behind the league’s worst offensive line (already bad plus their starting two backups this week). Jacobs has been pretty matchup-dependent for ceiling. Against defenses on par with the Eagles, he’s averaging like 12 FP. Those two 30-pointers were against literally the worst two defenses in the league. Chaad faces a Pats D that defends the run well and doesn’t miss many tackles in general, so it’ll have to be a big catch or a goal line TD to get him over 10 FP. Chaad scores like 80% of his points on touchdowns and first downs, and his general ineffectiveness has caused the Bucs to go away from the run every chance they get. I lied when I said I wasn’t super worried about anyone but Allen. I am super worried about Boz scoring 20 and that 10-FP advantage over my kicker being enough to decide the matchup.
I am counting on Lamar and Henry to combine for 50+, ideally 70, while getting a 20-point game from at least one other player. This week is a bad week for that strategy. The Vikings lead the league in pressure, and though I’m trying to manifest the shootout for Kennedy’s sake, I see the Ravens D rounding into top-10 form and holding the Vikings under 20. Bye weeks and injuries are forcing me into a weird spot. No Tee, seemingly no T-Mac, and Swift is questionable for personal reasons. That’s half my offense, and their replacements are looking like three of DJ Moore, Jameson, Pierce, DEMERCADO(?!), and Bill. I am aware the Cardinals are hot-handing and are not guaranteeing extra work for Demercado. What’s fucked up is I actually think Demercado is their best RB, potentially better than Benson. Demercado’s career yards per carry is 6.5. The NFL record for RB is 5.4. It’s only 100 attempts for Demercado so far, but it’s over three seasons in a bunch of different offensive configurations. This is hardcore coping, but Demercado has better size, speed, and hands than Bam Knight. He is the hotter hand, and Arizona insists on running the ball. As Max just starts actual starters. Why do I think I’ll win? I just do. I also believe I have an overwhelming IDP advantage.
I also believe I can go 2-3 over the next five weeks and sneak into the playoffs, so this week is kind of whatever because I feel really good about Lamar and Henry’s Week 12-14 slate.
Programming note: I think next week you’ll get an early week note and that’s it. Stephanie is out of town from Tuesday to Friday, so Miles will have taken Aleppo before Thursday’s game kicks off. I will try to hold my ground and get stuff done. We will see.
