Lamar is back. He plays a Bears D which is pretty bad. They’ve faced one good offense and allowed 500 yards and 50 points in that game. They’ve allowed at least 250 and 2 TDs to every offense they’ve faced this year, and when you compare the Ravens to those offenses, you expect 400 yards and 4 TDs. I expect the Ravens to call designed runs for Lamar early to force the Bears to spy, holding a LB in the middle while the Ravens run TE seams to draw the safeties inside and attack outside in the run and pass game. Great game to flex a Ravens WR. Huge Derrick Henry game. Maybe 25 for Lamar.
(update: sigh. I guess I’m going with Fields. I needed a Green Knight, and there’s probably something to the sequence of Fields getting benched and then the Jets having no choice but to start him again. But he plays the Bengals, and I don’t respect their defense.)
Mahomes is playing without his starting LT and all-pro RG, which was no big deal against the Raiders but should be at least uncomfortable against the Commanders. Overall, the Commanders defense is ass, and with Mariota at QB, the offense will pretty much be ass against a top-tier Chiefs D. Mahomes’ worst game this year was 13 FP against the Giants. Before that, his low was 29. Since the Giants game, the Chiefs first win, Mahomes has been above 32 FP every week. So I’m expecting 30+. Edge Oliver.
Derrick Henry benefits from Lamar returning, and he benefits even more from Patrick Ricard playing in his first game this year. The Ravens don’t want to push Lamar too hard in his first game back, and they don’t want their defense on the field, specifically their near-league-worst defensive line. 20 carries minimum for Henry. D’Andre Swift actually benefits from Kyle Monangai’s emergence because Swift can take a break and the offense can keep wearing down the opposing d-line. Monangai can vulture a TD, and Swift can still drop 25 FP. After last week, I imagine the Bears are happy to get the ball out of Caleb’s hands. Chuba Hubbard is in a 50-50 split, but he’s the third-down back. The Bills had two weeks to prepare for Carolina, and the passing offense needs to get right with the Chiefs coming next week. This is a classic trap game scenario, like you figure the Bills get caught looking ahead to the Chiefs game, but the Bills coaches have personal beef with the Panthers organization, and the Bills know they need to get their offense clicking ahead of that Chiefs game, so I think they’ll crush, and the whole point is that Chuba will see nice running lanes against a weak Bills’ interior, the Panthers will emphasize the run for at least the first two quarters with Andy Dalton starting (probably only for this week, too), and then Chuba will see the bulk of garbage time with checkdown artist Dalton.
Kimani Vidal already scored 26 FP against the Vikings, Cam Skattebo is good for 15 against the Eagles, but it’s worth noting he had 36 when he faced them two weeks ago (also worth noting Jalen Carter missed that game). No edge since Oliver will average 20 FP per RB, while I’ll be closer to 15 but with an extra RB.
Tee Higgins is back from the dead with Flacco, but I still don’t have a legitimate second WR. I am waiting for some other teams to lose, and I have the offers for their top WRs loaded and ready to fire. I’m leaning toward starting Alex Pierce again because he’s kind of the Colts’ #1, but it was easier to make that move with Downs out and AD Mitchel still in timeout. As those players get more integrated, with the Colts only throwing 30 times per game, I’m more interested in going back to T-Mac and hoping Dalton tries to use this one game to secure a contract for next year. Teams used to want a backup QB who would keep the game on the rails and protect the ball. It seems like there has been a shift to signing backups who will push the ball downfield. Might be anecdotal. But if I’m right, then Dalton will push the ball to T-Mac, and even if he throws a couple picks, he’ll throw a couple TDs, too. And the volume will be insane when the Bills are up three scores heading into the second half.
AJ Brown is out, so Oliver can only start Sutton and Metcalf. Sutton plays Dallas, and Metcalf plays the Packers in a Rodgers revenge game. It’s unlikely that they each score 30, but it’s on the menu. I’m concerned about it, especially if I’m not expecting Lamar to carry me and I’ve already gotten a zero from a Thursday player. Edge Oliver.
Evan Engram is my little slice of kryptonite against Oliver. I wanted to go get Javonte. I wanted to beat Oliver in a way that felt personal. But I just don’t have the capital to pry a top-5 RB away from the #1 team in Mortydome. So Engram it is. He plays Dallas, and I low-key hate this play because it’s so juicy yet so fragile because I’m at the mercy of Sean Payton’s galaxy brain.
Oliver starts two TEs, Kelce and Kittle. The ice water approach is that Kelce takes it easy until December with the rest of the Chiefs receivers healthy, also might have to be more of a blocker with the Chiefs hurting on o-line. Kittle did jack shit last week with Mac Jones, and they play the Texans this week. No edge (which is technically a loss for Oliver)
TJ Watt goes against the Packers, who have only allowed 10 sacks in six games. Roquan is back. Derwin got hurt almost immediately Thursday and scored zero. Tykee is DB1.
If Hendrickson plays, he faces a Jets offense that has allowed 31 sacks in seven games. But Hendrickson feels unlikely to play. Nik Bonitto plays Dallas. Dak is the second-least sacked QB in the league. Oliver spent $1 on Devin White, who has a bye. He doesn’t want to drop Kam Curl, who is DB6, so even though his DB and DX slots are empty, he has three players on bye, and as yet I don’t have anyone playing Monday night. Oliver could lock this game up Sunday night and not have to make any moves. He could lose by 50 and not make any moves. But more likely, he wakes up Monday losing by 10 or so and gets to add a couple IDPs. It’s an edge, but it’s not specific to the position.
I just feel like a winner. The details suggest Oliver has the advantage, but I don’t care. I expect to win. I think Vidal ends up leading Oliver’s team in scoring, while I have one or two players who outscore him, then I outscore his IDPs, and we break even elsewhere.
Justin Herbert already played and scored 35.
Hurts plays (vs.NYG) without AJ Brown; it’s a little bit of Ewing Theory because now the Eagles won’t have to force the ball to Brown, and the Eagles have a big chip on their shoulder after losing to the Giants two weeks ago. Hurts has multiple TDs in each of his last five games. He should do it again and finish above 20 FP, but if Saquon is bottled up again, I think Hurts will have closer to 20 than 30. Edge Shelby
No Gibbs is gutting for Shelby, but she still has three starting RBs in Warren (vs.GB), Brown (vs. NYJ), and Pollard (@IND). You’ve gotta start Warren coming off his best game ever, gotta start Brown off his best game of the year. Shelby’s not starting Pollard, which is correct. I don’t love the matchups for Warren and Brown, personnel-wise, but I like the gamescripts. Steelers should play the Packers close, and the Bengals might just blow out an imploding Jets team.
No CeRB for Spe with Etienne on bye, but CMC is the only RB who outscored Jahmyr Gibbs’ 42 last week, BUT CMC faces a Texans D that will actually be able to contain him without sacrificing elsewhere. Achane is the Dolphins’ best player, but the Falcons defense has been lights out. The issue for Atlanta, and the advantage for Achane, is that the Falcons will be without their best cover LB and their prized first-round edge defender. It should be enough to get Achane a few explosives. No edge.
Odunze plays the Ravens, who have bad stats but have benched the veteran corners that were allowing the biggest plays. The story on Odunze is that his catchable target rate is near the bottom of the league, which could be due to a few reasons, but none of them are, like, hopeful right now. Rome won’t be a target-monster, but he can beat all but one of the Ravens DBs deep. There would be more urgency to up Odunze’s targets if the Bears weren’t on a four-game win streak. Deebo is back, but against the Chiefs, with Mariota as his QB, well… it’s not ideal. He should get a good amount of work and varied work at that, potentially even return kicks, but I would expect a 15-FP ceiling this week. Wan’Dale Robinson, man, idk. All I know is you have to start him because he’s cooking and your bench options have bad matchups. The Bills should go out of their way to get Keon Coleman going, but he’ll be covered by Jaycee Horn in bad weather. In my other league, I’m starting Darius Slayton over him. Okay, I feel like I wrote that to make a point against Coleman, and now I’m picking up strong energy that Coleman is indeed going to be a focal point of the Bills’ offense, specifically as a deep threat.
McLaurin is back, but Mariota doesn’t have the arm to make it wow. Pittman is fine. DeVonta stacks with Hurts in a week without AJB, which in theory is a smash, but DeVonta is so small that if the Eagles try to force the ball to him against double teams more than a couple times, he’ll get knocked out of the game. You have to start him, but history suggests he’s only good for 15 FP. Michael Pittman has five TDs in seven games and is the only Colts WR to play in every game. This is actually bad news because TDs aren’t a sticky stat; yards are, and his yards are trash, plus his volume is low because the overall passing volume is low. No edge.
Shelby cut Ertz too soon, but Dalton Schultz can get it done against a 49ers D without Fred Warner. He’s hot lately, and the Texans are playing without their top two receivers.
Hunter Henry blew up for a hot minute, but after getting 22 targets in the first three weeks, he has just 14 targets over the last four. It coincides with the emergence of Stef Diggs, which makes me think this is what we’re getting going forward. However, against a tough, smart defense that should focus on Diggs, maybe Hunter is the safety valve.
Dicker already has 15. McLaughlin is in the dome behind an offense that can move the ball but should also have difficulty getting in the endzone. Slightest edge Shelby just because 15 is hard to do.
Will Anderson is a god, and every snap he doesn’t play across from Trent Williams has unlimited potential.
Brian Burns has been nasty. He’s hurt, but he’ll play, BUT he’s got no relief whether he’s across from Mailata or Lane Johnson. Somehow he still had two sacks the last time they played. No edge.
Shelby does the thing that’s working this year: stacking LBs. I personally hate it, but I can’t judge because I’ve been stacking LB-DB combos, and Sean is scoring 20+ a week using this tactic. Shelby starts Edge and Quay against a team that likes to run and use the TEs.
Spencer starts Demario Davis and still needs a DX. I would dump the old man and pick up the league’s leading tackler Cedric Gray and also add former LB1 TJ Edwards.
Winfield has been pretty quiet in fantasy because he’s had big plays called back. He’s all over the ball. It’s only a matter of time. With Reddick and possibly Vea out, you can imagine this being a Winfield blitz week.
Spencer dropped a top-10 DB for Minkah, which is unforgiveable. Obviously Quentin Lake is the move long-term, but he’s on bye. The top DBs available for this week are Kenny Moore, Jordan Battle, Jalen Pitre, Kevin Byard, and Trevon Moehrig. Two safeties operating as LBs are Jalen Pitre and Trevon Moehrig. If you want more splash, then it’s Kevin Byard or Jordan Battle. You know what’s not a terrible play? Starting both Bengals safeties. They are ball-hawking safeties, but the LBs have been so tragic that their tackle numbers are solid, too. Tyrod Taylor starting for the Jets means lots of running and lots of overaggressive deep balls.
Generally speaking, Shelby is in buzz-saw mode for whatever reason, and Spencer has bad matchups.
This is the best possible week to play Sean. Puka is out, McBride is on bye, Drake Maye faces the Browns, the Cowboys face the Broncos, Breece Hall is potentially going to be held out or held back so that he can stay healthy for the trade deadline, and Jaylen Waddle has a bad matchup on top of being trash in fantasy anyway.
The only problem is that Corey doesn’t have enough healthy/active players to fill a lineup right now. He’ll fix it an hour before kickoff Sunday, but will he make the right guesses? My recommendations are Darnell Mooney and Jaylin Noel. Is that anything? Should you just double-up on Broncos? Should you double-up on return-man scams in Turpin and Malik Washington? Shelby left RJ Harvey out there for you, but otherwise RB is bone dry. It’s bleak. But I bet two flex options in free agency right now will combine for 40 FP and be able to deliver you the massive upset.
Stroud is bad, but he has a good matchup. The 49ers’s front seven is a mess. Most of the starters are out. But so are the Texans best receivers. And even a broken clock can get a sack against this Texans line.
Drake and Dak have bad matchups, but they’re so good it doesn’t matter. Sean should probably start Dak, so the fact that he’s starting Maye is another boon for Corey.
Bijan and Diggs should be huge this week. Pitts should eat, too. I’m leaning Mooney just so you get all that Falcons action against an all-time bad vibes team in Miami. The Diggs thing makes the Maye start even more advantageous. Sean will recognize this and switch Dak in, but it won’t be enough. If I were Corey, I would change out the entire IDP unit except for Hufanga. And I’d probably read the writing on the wall with Nick Chubb. This is a great opportunity to completely change the chemistry of a failing team while there are high upside players still available.
Again, if Corey makes all the right moves, I think this is an even matchup. But that’s all projection. Sean’s got the momentum and the better players.
Great week to play Brian. He’s got four starters on bye, two starters out, and he’s bottom-2 in scoring this year.
But Kennedy’s bottom-1, and it looks like he’s forced to start Caleb coming off a 3-FP game, and Caleb will face a rabid Ravens D coming off four-game losing streak and a bye. Kennedy doesn’t have to do this, but with no shot of making the playoffs, he is better off holding Purdy and Caleb as keepers than he is chasing a win.
Brian starts Penix, which will hurt Kennedy so bad after Penix was his heir apparent coming into the year. Penix isn’t good or anything, but he should have a good week, a better week than Caleb, though Penix has two 3-FP games to Caleb’s one this year.
It’s a rock fight. Analyzing this matchup is like writing a Yelp review for Taco Bell.
I assume this is the week Brian finally drops McMillan. I think he needs to in order to start a full lineup. But it’s not a given. Brian can win with 11. Brian will win with 11. Brian will be 3-5, and Jayden Daniels will come back next week, and Brian will have to continue to believe in this WR corps because honestly it’s a pretty good team if one of these RBs becomes a consistent thing, which it appears both Marks and Pacheco are. Look, if I’m right about this week’s matchups (which I never am), then Brian will win, and then he’ll face Oliver next week. Oliver will have lost to me and sold Mahomes to Coleman, so Brian can be 4-5, squarely in the playoff mix, with a playoff-worthy team. It doesn’t make any sense right now because he’s so bad, but it’s all happening. He’s climbing back in, he’s getting hot at the right time, and a bunch of other teams are sliding the opposite way.
Kennedy can definitely win this game, and he can definitely play spoiler. Getting Gadsden for $9 was wild. I’m sorry I didn’t bid. I held back because I wasn’t going to bid less than $15, and I don’t need a TE. But right now, I’d rather have Gadsden and $15 less FAAB than be starting Evan Engram and then going back to LaPorta. But the point is: Kennedy handed out six wins the last six weeks. But I’m guessing at least two of us lose to him before the regular season ends, and I think he has just enough magic to avoid last place. One of us is going to end this year feeling worse than Kennedy. Amazing. A miracle.
Josh Allen is back and gets an easy-ish matchup. Carolina has a creative defensive coordinator who designs brilliant game-specific schemes, but the roster is rough. They have mostly shut down the run this year, but the last time they played a Josh Allen type (Maye), they allowed their season-high in points.
Joe Flacco is a time god. This dude’s career was over before COVID, when he was Frankensteining in the Denver backfield for four sacks per game. Last week, the Bengals called a designed run that Flacco took for ten yards and a first down. He can sling it, and he has an elite group of weapons. NO EDGE.
Jordan Mason already ate shit, Max is starting Sterling Stonks, Rashid Shaheed gets another go, SirVocea Dennis is in the lineup for some reason (he has two 15-point games, Week 1 and last week, so he’s not due for another until December)… Max is relying heavily on Jacobs, Chaad, and… yeah that’s pretty much it in terms of consistent output. Ertz, Boswell, Highsmith, and Bolton have been hot and cold, and Cam Bynum has yet to be worth starting this year.
Quentin Johnson and Keenan Allen combined for 8.4 on Thursday because Keenan Allen scored 8.4 on Thursday. QJ didn’t even get a target. He has quickly become a volatile MVS/Shaheed type that can give you a boom but can also just completely disappear. Coleman’s without Kyren, and his best players have rough matchups (STACLE vs. NE, Lamb and Ferg vs. DEN). Coleman has a significant IDP advantage, and it should be enough rocks to beat Max 125-120.
Gotta love being 21. Egbuka hurt his hamstring and didn’t even miss a game. He was slowed by it, but he was getting open. Not entirely sure what happened to Baker on Monday night, not entirely sure it’s not the beginning of a big cool down. If the rest of the league was paying attention, they key to stopping Baker Mayfield is the key to stopping Lamar. Send the house. Let him win a couple times downfield, let up a touchdown and a couple field goals, but make Baker one-dimensional and speed him up, and he starts spraying the ball.
Bo Nix sucks, but it doesn’t seem to matter. Now he gets the best matchup possible in Dallas, and he could easily double-up Baker’s FP this week. As should Daniel Jones, who probably outscores Nix this week because that’s what Cam’s bench QB does. Edge Cam
Saquon has been mid, but it all changes this week. The Eagles get the Giants again after getting embarrassed by them two weeks ago. Key differences: this one is in Philly, Jalen Carter is back to shore up the Eagles d-line, the league actually has tape on Dart, and AJ Brown is out, so the Eagles should be stubborn running the ball.
James Cook gets that Panthers D that actually holds up against the run, and Evan is starting Gainwell when Tez is right there. Edge Cam
Ladd had 18 FP in the first half and could have had 30 if the Vikings offense had shown up to the game. With the game in hand at half, the Chargers ran the ball, and Ladd didn’t score another point. London had a late injury designation, so he might not play. Worthy is crowded out by the return of Rice and the Chiefs’ preference for Hollywood in the red zone. Olave’s been great, but it will probably be a terrible day for the Saints offense. Cam’s loaded with byes this week, so it is what it is.
Evan’s crown jewel is the trio of Eggs, Rice, and Jefferson. It is enough of an advantage to make up for low ceilings elsewhere this week.
The IDP matchup is honestly kinda gross. Parsons is coming off a 24-point game, but the he faces the Steelers this week, and they don’t allow sacks like that. Tremaine Edmunds finally finds a home, but Cam misses an opportunity by taking a flier on Devin Bush instead of pairing Edmunds and TJ Edwards. Tyson Campbell has been scoring, so I can’t complain, but I tend not to trust boundary corners for extended stretches. Evan overhauled his IDPs, adding Diaby, Lavonte, and DJ Turner (another boundary corner doing consistent damage, fine). I think doubling up on Bucs against an ugly Saints offense that runs a lot of plays is fun and good.
Though I’m tempering expectations on both sides of this matchup, I concede the potential for any of these players to go nuclear, and this could easily be the highest matchup total in Mortydome this week. Ultimately Evan wins because I committed to that ahead of time for some reason.
The theme of the week is middle class expansion with Brian, Shelby, and Oliver likely to win. The other theme is Sean and Evan eating cake on their balconies while the peasants fight for stale bread crumbs.
