In classic Bill Simmons fashion, we’re doing a lazy note by quoting some quality content. This week’s note is brought to you by The Chair Company.
“If your mom says it’s a nut, it’s a nut.”
This one goes to Shelby, who has maybe too much consistency between her draft and her current roster. The only person who’s made fewer moves is Evan, who was 5-0 and would probably be 6-0 if not for the Egbuka injury. Shelby is 1-5, having scored just three more points on the year than Kennedy at 0-6. But this: she gets to face Kennedy fresh off the fire sale. 2-5 has respectable odds of making the playoffs or at least getting a bye in the pick ladder. The persistence and the patience might pay off.
“I’m saying you wouldn’t know if you were in a mall.”
Evan seems to be unaware that there have been starting WRs and RBs available on the waiver wire this season. He’s flexing Cooper Kupp and a backup RB every week, biding time for Rashee Rice’s return? Bhayshul Tuten’s breakout? I mean, fine. You made it to 5-0, so the risk of those decisions hasn’t borne out. But you’re 5-1 now, your depth is getting tested, and you’re slipping because you built the whole bench out of what-ifs. You’re still starting Kupp and a backup RB this week because you’re hitting bye weeks. You have the league MVP, you have his best weapon, you have a top-5 RB, oh, and Justin Jefferson already through his bye. Swing a trade for one more guy. Even at full strength, with BakenEggs, Cook, JJ, Rice, and Monty, you’re still starting Kupp or a backup. Waiting for the deadline is fine. Whatever you’re moving for one starter now, you could move for two starters then. But the best starters are available now. Once another playoff team takes them, they are gone. Shelby’s going to stick it out just because of the math. She needs to lose that seventh game, which should take three more weeks. But I don’t know! Check in on Jahmyr Gibbs. Throw Gainwell and a 2nd out there.
“Actually, I’m still picking at that.”
“It’s half a deviled egg.”
This one goes to Brian, who refuses to engage my Ja’Marr Chase advances. This is a dead season. The longer you wait to eat that deviled egg, the likelier you are to be sick later on. There are more paths to failure for Chase than there are to success at this point. Injuries to Flacco or Higgins crater his season, and if the Bengals keep losing, he’s going to be one of these players who gets to go on IR with a “shin injury” for the final four games of the year. You don’t need the headache. Let me carry that weight for you.
“She’s 15? She’s like 100 years old.”
Corey almost got away with starting Stafford a third straight week. One fewer Stafford sack, even just Stafford not inexplicably losing that fumble, would have allowed Corey to scam his way to 3-3 starting Stafford, Diggs, and Chubb because in his mind, it’s 2020 until sleeper acknowledges his championship season.
“This isn’t a mall, is it?”
It’s not even kind of a mall, Kennedy. And even if it were, there’s no occasion for a mid-October sale, unless you’re selling pumpkin spice and Taylor Swift albums. Six losses isn’t even mathematical elimination! You couldn’t turn down a 2nd for a non-keeper, non-elite player. That’s a smash. But Omarion Hampton is probably coming back before our trade deadline. I can tell you from experience: a fourth is not a significant pick, especially not from a team that’s ninth in scoring and on a downslide. Do you want Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs? Because this is how you get Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs!
“I swear I have the worst pillow in town! This thing is made of goddamn metal!”
How Cameron is about to feel about trading a 2nd for Jeanty. The Raiders are just so bad. Their offensive line is bad. Geno Smith, for all anyone wants to be like, “What happened to Geno Smith?” He wasn’t playing well last year, either! He was one interception shy of being tied for the league lead, his TD% was bottom-5 overall and the worst of any QB who played more than ten games. The guys below him were AOC, Jags Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, and pre-cut Daniel Jones. No competent defense is worried about Geno Smith throwing the ball, and Geno Smith is past the point of being able to run the ball. So of course Jeanty is getting 25 touches, and of course he’s getting just 75 yards. It’s great to get the ball that many times. It’s not great to get tackled that many times.
“I want to discuss the problem with someone who can do something about it on a large scale.”
I just beat Coleman 176-126. I’m third in scoring this year. He is ninth. But if the season ended today, I would miss the playoffs, and he would make it. It’s not right. It’s too much pure math and not enough logic. Some weight needs to be given to recent wins. We need a committee that votes on who the best teams are when the numbers… wait, no, that’s how Florida State gets ranked and I get duped into watching them lose by less than a TD for the third straight week. Nevermind. Pure math is pure reason! Reject the parasitic spread of language and semantics. Everything should be data. We shouldn’t have eyes if those eyes aren’t glued to spreadsheets. Pass the g-doc, co-dub.
“Don’t you think that’s really quite weird?”
Max, Josh Allen is bad now, and if you want to understand why, you need to compare him to his successor at MVP, one Baker Mayfield. The test of a good QB is what they do when the game is on the line. When the game is on the line for the Bills, Josh Allen throws interceptions to fifth-string defensive linemen. It’s really quite weird, Carla.
“My phone just fuckin’ zapped me.”
How it feels waking up to any sleeper notification with Oliver involved. Whether it’s a $169 bid for Kelce or a six-to-midnight from Optimus Prime, Oliver wins Wednesday mornings.
“Granola?! Go get some cookies or something!”
Coleman is 4-2 despite not scoring for shit (I’m bitter), and he just traded for an RB who won’t come back until a couple weeks before our playoffs. My criticism of this move is that I didn’t get to beat him to it. This is exactly how you set up a late-season run. You stack win percentage early. That’s what every smart team in every sport does now. (It’s simple: just win now, all the time! The age of strategic masterminds!) You buy low, you take your lumps, and you save up for one big buy at the right moment. Coleman is going to be like 5-5 and buy Mahomes right after Oliver takes loss number seven. And Coleman is going to rocket back into the playoffs, maybe not win it all again because of the bounces, but he’ll be a serious contender because he’s built a winning culture. It’s not exciting watching it play out, but if you take a step back, you appreciate the healthy approach.
“You can’t be blowing all these bubbles at work.”
Sean I’m gonna need you to stop having so much goddamn fun and start playing the same game as the rest of us. I’m gonna need Puka Nacua to be out and for you to somehow not post a top-10 all-time score while he fails to reach five points. I’m keeping Puka out, I’m bringing CeeDee and Chuba and Kyler back, and I’m massively scaling back the Pickens, Dowdle, and McBride points. We’re done with the Javonte thing. It was fun for a month, but it’s time to be big boys again and actually have to start good players to score points. I’ll allow Nick Herbig and Andrew Van Ginkel, but if you play them at the same time, so help me god…
“That guy? The one who left for a year to start an Adventure and Jeep Tours company, in suburban Ohio, out of his garage, the one that mortgaged his family’s house, and built one rope bridge out in the woods?”
Spencer is going to wake up one day and realize that this roster was always a cobbled-together mess in the wake of the Malik Nabers injury. Spencer knows this is the buy-low window for Josh Allen, so why hasn’t the move been made? Why aren’t you aggressively getting away from the Eagles’ offense after what we’ve seen so far? Michael Pittman shouldn’t be starting for a playoff team. I know Terry McLaurin is coming back, and you have the CeRBerus, but that doesn’t entitle you to playing two fringe flexes at WR. At 5-1, with Sean and Evan set at QB and the pre-cogged Coleman-Mahomes trade coming, the clock is ticking on Allen. If you’re committed to Hurts, then at least make the AJ Brown trade. You might not feel the pressure now, but you will when the byes come and you’re forced into starting Jakobi Meyers.
The 2019 QB draft class is insane. At one point, Baker and Darnold were competing to start for the Matt Rhule Panthers. They were basically out of the league. Now, they have re-surpassed Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson as the best QBs from their class. They are responsible for the most exciting game since Allen and Jackson faced off for a 41-40 finish in Week 1. And Evan and I are starting them against each other. Baker faces another impossibly injured defense and will kick ass despite his impossibly injured WR room. Darnold faces the best defense in the league, but the cope-aine I’m snorting is that the Seahawks are getting healthy enough on defense to challenge Houston for that top spot. The Texans’ offense should struggle more than the Seahawks’. The Seahawks should get great field position all day, and Sam Darnold should continue to throw TDs at a high rate. MORE LIKELY, the Seahawks will run well and punch it in without having to throw in the red zone, but I deserve better, and Sam Darnold is going to throw it just for me.
Henry and Cook are on bye, so Evan and I are equally short-handed at RB. I have Swift, Bill, and maybe Chuba to Evan’s Montgomery, Gainwell, and maybe Tucker. Flexing Cooper Kupp gives you a shot to neutralize Darnold, but I’d avoid the Texans matchup. I specifically, the Darnold starter, would avoid the Texans matchup if I felt like there was a better option. I was prioritizing Flacco, Rodgers, Bryce Young, and Penix in my waiver order on Tuesday and was disappointed when a good Samaritan saved me from walking in front of a passing train. Near-death clarity unlocked, I cancelled those claims and decided that Sam Darnold has good stats because he is a good QB. Ah, RBs. Right. Swift and Bill are monsters, each with recent 30-point games. Montgomery is good but probably not against the Bucs this week. Gainwell, no. Tucker, maybe, but the Lions’ run D is the area actually surviving the injury nightmare. Either way, it’s my advantage this week, even if Chuba is out or is just Dowdle’s backup. I want to be clear about something: Kenny Gainwell is an okay RB. He had a nice day in London or wherever. But Jaylen Warren is so much better. Gainwell is a return-man scam plus five offensive touches (all in favor of bringing back phrasing?).
Evan can’t have Eggs without hammy, so he has Rice coming off his six-game suspension. Rice probably qualifies for some circle of STA, but I’ve mostly reserved that moniker for crimes against women, so he gets to keep his name for now. Rice pairs with Justin Jefferson and maybe Kupp flexes because Kupp is better than anything on Evan’s bench. Chiefs play the Raiders, which means two things: they dominate on defense, and they bench the starters halfway through the fourth quarter. The Raiders defense is okay, but it’s… stagnant? They don’t do interesting shit, is the simple phrasing. They line up and play hard, but the diagnosis is so easy for someone like Mahomes with all these weapons, there’s no reason to unleash Rice when it would be easier to spread it around. Justin Jefferson gets his requisite 12 targets and eats, even if the Eagles double him with Mitchell and DeJean. I start T-Mac and Tee because that is my lot. I feel better about it now than I have all season. T-Mac broke the TD seal, and Tee was inches away from doing the same. I’m really nervous starting T-Mac against Sauce Gardner. The Jets are 0-6, and until last week, they were allowing over 30 points per game, but Sauce has held his man mostly in check. Of course that insane one-handed grab by Egbuka was over Sauce, but that goes to show what it takes to gain yards against this man. T-Mac has that kind of talent, so I’m riding with him, but I considered benching him. No edge.
LaPorta/Otton vs. Goedert, who really cares? Goedert has been good, and the Eagles have been bad, so factoring which is more important to the Eagles, I’d guess the offense starts being less about Goedert and more about the three guys making a combined, like, $70 million. LaPorta has been hot, and the Bucs have been bad against TEs, but Cade Otton might be Baker’s go-to even if Mike Evans plays. We saw it last year when the injuries piled up. Cade Otton had a magical middle of the year. That’s my $2 gamble this week. No edge.
Kickers are whatever, but I’m really excited about starting Will Reichard. Because I’m sick. I’m a sick man. Evan starts a Michael Badgley, who has had a weird career but not a bad one. He played well for the Chargers for a few years then lost the job to Cameron Dicker, understandably. Then he bounced around for a few years, landed in Detroit, played well but got hurt, lost the job to Jake Bates, understandably. Then he was out of the league for all of last year, possibly due to the injury. Now he’s starting for one of the league’s top offenses, which tends to be all you need to be a good fantasy kicker. But Reichard can hit from 70. I believe in the right circumstance, he will hit from 70 in a game. Maybe this week, who know.
My IDPs are Watt, David, Derwin, and Tykee. Evan’s are Byron Young, Baun, Hunter, and Ernie. It has the makings of a defensive shootout, with a slight edge to Evan for Hunter’s upside.
All told, it’s the Darnold-Baker, it’s IDPs, and it’s me winning narrowly because I have the better RBs.
I think Kennedy learned a valuable lesson about messing with time, specifically if that time is Bobby. By corrupting the Bobby fabric with Roberts and other false Bobbies, Kennedy went too far, and the Bobbyverse restored order. With the true Bobbies returned to their time of origin, Kennedy’s team can begin to heal. BEGIN to heal; don’t get crazy. Shelby is winning this matchup by the most she’s won any matchup all year (literally just the one, but the point stands).
Herbert vs. Caleb is pretty even until you learn that Joe Alt is coming back. After a two-week dip, we are diamond hands for Herbert again, especially against a weird Colts defense. Weird because they have yet to allow 30 points, have held two (bad) teams under 10, and have forced at least one turnover each game. So technically they’re good? But it’s weird because they allowed kind of huge games from the Titans and Broncos and Jacoby Cardinals. Weird because the Rams hung 450 yards on them. The Jacoby Cards hung 400. The Chargers are probably going to hang 400, which means Herbert should throw for at least 250, and if he throws for 250, he should throw at least two TDs. Throw in some scrambles and baby you got a stew goin’. Caleb plays in the wind and rain, and the Saints’ defense is okay. The Bears haven’t been using Caleb as a runner as much as they could, but maybe bad weather could force them to tap into that again and lift his fantasy floor. He’ll need three TDs to keep up with Herbert this week. Edge Shelby.
Jaylen Warren retakes the Steelers’ starting job this week against a trash Bengals D. Tony Pollard is a bad play against a strong Pats run D. But then again, Brown and Harvey and Wan’Dale are bad plays, too. I’d play Brown just for the volume. Tyjae ate too much into Pollard’s work last week. Harvey who knows. Wan’Dale faces the Broncos. So it’s Warren, Pollard, and Gibbs (should be Skattebo, but whatever) vs. … um… Tyler Allgeier or STA-KC, two backups who scratch Kennedy’s d20 itch because truly either could score anywhere from 1 to 20 points regardless of matchup. Edge Shelby.
Deebo Samuel is very injured, and playing without practicing last week led to 2.4 FP. Rome Odunze should neutralize Caleb this week because Rome is coming off his worst game of the year, and the Bears will go out of their way to get him more involved, mostly because it makes life easier for Caleb. They face off against Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, Tre Tucker, and (apparently) Kam Johnson. The one good thing I can say about this is that playing a Cam/Kam against Shelby helped Oliver win last week. Oliver started two Cams and a Kam, so maybe get your weight up, Kennedy; I’ve got a couple Sams you can throw at her. Edge Shelby.
AJ Barner is an increasingly rare thing in fantasy football, a real sleeper. He’s quietly eighth in TE scoring, and the Texans are relatively weak at LB. Darren Waller has scored a TD or two each of the past three weeks, the only weeks he’s played, and he’s playing through a hip injury. He is as likely to keep scoring TDs as he is to go on IR at any moment. No edge.
See, because Shelby has a Cam for her kicker, you have to start at least two Cam/Kams or Sams to gain the advantage. No amount of Bobbies can cancel out a Cam/Kam/Sam. Cam Little is there for the taking.
Okay, so Kennedy’s one shot to win, outside of the Cam/Kam/Sam scam, is the magic of Bobby Time. We’re hunting for 40 from the pair to keep Kennedy in striking range. I think you gotta read the tea leaves with Dru Phillips. Nobody knows who this guy is, and DB free agency is still pretty stocked. Quentin Lake would be my pick. Shelby’s really strong at IDP, too, though. What’s up with Shelby’s team not scoring points? This is a good team.
Shelby wins by at least 37. When she does, she will have two wins, against the only two teams that started out 0-5.
Brian said “shuts laptop until the government starts back up again.” For the first time in about 100 of his little bench-everyone shenanigans, Brian forgot to start his Thursday players, specifically Ja’Marr Chase, who went on to break his own franchise record for receptions and targets and finishing the night with another 30-point performance. Brian, do the right thing: trade Ja’Marr to someone who will love and cherish him. We’re ret-conning Brian’s lineup. For the greater good. We don’t give away wins in Mortydome. If I had checked on everyone’s rosters before the game like I did back when life was easy, none of this would have happened. We’re hopping in the DeLorean.
Brian’s record is dogshit, but his team is all right. Jayden Daniels has the elite matchup (Dallas), and Coleman is probably starting the wrong QB. Jordan Love is better than Justin Fields, for sure, but the Packers’ line has been shaky, the Cardinals have a good pass rush, and Justin Fields plays a Carolina team that’s an enigma. They are terrible on defense, truly god-awful, and their 30-0 win over the Falcons is insane especially when you consider the Falcons have (statistically) the best defense in the league and an average offense. The Panthers are 3-3 and just will not come into New York hungry enough to beat the Jets. The Jets aren’t dog shit. They lost four of their games by one score, to the Steelers, Bucs, Dolphins, and Broncos. Aaron Glenn is a good coach with a lot of experience, but he's a rookie head coach. Losing to veteran head coaches like Tomlin, Bowles, and Payton by one score with this roster, that’s solid. Dave Canales is the least veteran coach on the Jets’ schedule until the Jets play the Jags in December. I’m calling the Jets win right now, and without Garrett Wilson, it’s going to be Justin Fields as a runner taking this team down the field for three TDs. But Coleman starts Love, so edge Brian.
Brian’s RB problem has not improved. Henderson is coming on, but it’s coming slow. I think this week I might opt to double-up on the Pats backfield against a tragic Titans team, but I dropped Rhamondre because I live in fear of things like the dead coach bounce. Teams that fire their coach tend to win the following week. But this is also a revenge game for Pats HC Mike Vrabel, and the way Vrabel wants to win is by overpowering the opposing defense, and the Titans have been top-10 against the pass and bottom-5 against the run. Pacheco is in a committee in KC anyway. So that gives you Henderson and Rhamondre vs. Coleman’s Kyren and STA-CLE, who average a combined floor of like 30 FP. Significant edge Coleman.
WR is Brian’s strength, where he can afford to start one RB because he’s got Chase, BTJ, Marv, and Golden. If this were dynasty, Brian would be set for ten years at the position. Since it’s redraft, and we’re dealing with growing pains for 3/4 of those guys, Brian’s strength has been dormant, but it’s waking up. Last week, BTJ and Golden had their season-highs, and Marv was heating up before getting concussed. The Pats stack idea is borne of Marv’s potential to miss this game. If he’s active, Brian should start Henderson and the four WRs. Coleman gets Lamb and QJ back this week, which should send Kendrick Bourne or Keenan Allen to the bench. Bourne has been amazing as the 49ers only receiver, but with Purdy and Kittle coming back, there’s too much uncertainty. Remember that Mac Jones played a lot of games with Bourne in New England before they reconnected in San Fran. This will be Purdy’s second game ever with Bourne. He’s seen what Bourne can do, but he has more meld with Jauan, Kittle, and CMC. Keenan Allen has been under 10 FP each of the last three weeks after a hot start, and it’s coincided with Joe Alt’s absence. With Alt back and Colts’ nickel Kenny Moore a little gimpy, this is a good spot for Allen. Bourne plays Atlanta, statistically the league’s best pass defense, and Kyle Shanahan has demons with Atlanta, and he knows how bad the 49ers defense is right now. I’m all-in on the 49ers winning this game because they score five TDs, BUT I’m also confident those TDs are exclusive to Purdy, CMC, and Kittle. It’s a dilemma. I think with the Colts’ top CB likely to sit due to a concussion, I would start QJ over Keenan and diversify by also starting Bourne over Keenan. But if we’re just talking about point-scoring potential, I’m more convinced in the Chargers’ desire to get Keenan Allen going again than I am in the 49ers’ desire to make Bourne a focal point or even to throw very much with Purdy starting but not back to 100%. Slight edge Brian because he’s already got the 30 from Chase.
Tucker Kraft would be George Kittle if the Packers would just feature him instead of always spreading the ball around. Jake Ferguson has double digits in five straight games, and he faces one of the worst TE-coverage units in the Commanders’ Wagner, Luvu, Reaves, and Martin. No edge.
Matt Gay and Jake Bates both have huge legs and average accuracy. Both are connected to good offenses. The Commanders face a worse defense and are less aggressive going on fourth down than the Lions, which gives Brian a slight edge.
IDP street is slammed in this matchup, especially once Coleman drops Doubs to find a replacement for Hamilton on bye. Again, I suggest Quentin Lake. If Kennedy beats you to him, then you get his Budda Baker sloppy seconds. Brian is without Branch (not STA, not even a little), but he adds DB1 Marcus Jones, who is Deion Sanders, as Deion as one can be in the modern NFL. He gets sacks, INTs, and punt return TDs. He’s an animal. Brian’s other IDPs are fellow animal Jared Verse who has already forced three fumbles this year and is averaging close to 15 FP per game the last four weeks. Oluokun we know, we love. Jamien Sherwood is a high-floor tackle monster. Coleman starts Crosby, Elliss, and Spillane, who are all high-ceiling stat-sheet cloggers with variable floors. Brian is more likely to get 10 FP per IDP, but Coleman is more likely to hit a couple 20s. No edge.
I’m back on my regression bullshit this week. Brian should have more wins, Coleman should have more losses, and the universe provides balance this week.
This one doesn’t require too much analysis because Corey’s team is bad and matchups for his good players are bad. Max has to start Goff with Josh on bye, and he would have won last week had he stacked Goff-Jamo instead of sticking with Josh and spot-starting Shaheed. He got cute, and he took an L.
The fantasy gods have forbidden cuteness this week. Max gets Nico and Mason back from bye, Ertz faces Dallas, and Davante is going to see 15 targets with Puka out. Rachaad White isn’t the most efficient RB, but he’s getting so many high-leverage touches. He’s got 30 FP in the last two weeks on TDs and first downs, 45 when you throw in the yardage. I want to stack Goff and Jamo, but Max’s lineup is too good to take the risk, and that’s how you know he’s got the significant advantage this week.
Corey starts Stroud against an elite defense (with Max neutralizing thanks to Nico), Bijan against a bad defense but one that will sell out to stop him, JSN against an elite defense (honestly feel like he’s matchup proof, but this is more of a 15-pointer than a 30), Diggs is old, Chubb is old, and I haven’t even gotten to injuries. Corey’s best play this week is sore hammy Mike Evans, who the Bucs should save from himself by forcing him to run more chain-mover stuff than go-balls. Even with Evans in the fold, that doesn’t move any of those aforementioned to the bench; he just fills the flex spot vacated by Kyle Pitts, who is actually a great play against the Warner-less Falcons. I like Mason Taylor against the Panthers enough to start him and Pitts together, benching Diggs or Chubb, probably Chubb because I really respect Seattle’s run defense.
No, you know what, fuck it. I’m cutting Justice Hill and starting Elic Ayomanor, who is the only game in town with Ridley hurt. Again, respect the dead coach bounce, recognize the Pats are vulnerable against the pass, and the Titans best move to regain fan support is to let Cam Ward fucking sling that thing. Ward has thrown just three TDs this year, two to Ayomanor. Ayomanor is not a great WR, but he leads them in snaps, has a big frame, and Ward trusts him.
Corey should upgrade kicker and DL and must replace Devin Lloyd (injured) at LB. He screwed himself a little by starting Queen in the DX, but it really only precludes him from starting two DBs. At a disadvantage, Corey should chase ceiling with sacks. Take advantage of the Titans’ offensive strengths and weaknesses by starting Ayomanor and a Pats pass-rusher. Harold Landry is the obvious move, especially in a revenge game. And if you insist on starting Stroud, then get back some points you lose on Stroud sacks by starting a Seahawks pass rusher. Leo Williams and Demarcus Lawrence are the obvious names, but Byron Murphy and Uchenna Nwosu lead the team in sacks. Lawrence leads in TFLs, Leo leads the line in tackles and PDs. You really can’t go wrong.
Max maintains his overall advantage with solid IDPs. Bolton should feast on Jeanty’s 25 carries, and Campbell is so aggressive punching on his tackles that the NFL sent a tape of him to all teams, warning them to punch the ball and not the man. That will light a fire for sure. Dan Campbell loves it, Jack Campbell loves it. He’s good for 15 FP. Kam Kinchens has been bad in fantasy. If you want a Rams DB who’s actually doing the thing, get Quentin Lake.
Max wins by a lot despite continuing to score in the 150-range because Corey is barely breaking 100 this week.
These are weird teams in that they are constructed very differently but are essentially getting the same results. Spencer has a few more points for, Cam has a few more points against, which puts Spencer one game up and gives Cam the opportunity to erase those differences and tie Spencer in all areas following this week.
The problem is he keeps starting the wrong QB, which is bound to happen when you have two QBs and neither is elite. Dimes is QB7, Nixels is QB14, but Dimes plays the Chargers and Nixels plays the Giants. When you have two QBs, you are bound to their matchups. You want to pick one QB and ride him until the wheels fall off, but you have evidence that you’ll get more utility from playing the matchups. Just last week, Cam won by one point over Corey, when starting the better matchup QB would have won it by 13. It matters because two other teams outscored Cameron by less than that difference, and one point in stat corrections could have helped him beat another team, or it could have given Corey the win over him. I say all this to setup a classic commish contradiction: I think we know now who the better QB is. It’s clearly Daniel Jones. He was a higher touted draft prospect, he has a better arm, he has more experience, and he has the rushing advantage thanks to the tush push. The Chargers are a nightmare for opposing QBs in the passing game, but they have a shitty run defense because they are so small. It’s Dimes time, now and forever.
Spencer starts Hurts because Dart plays the Broncos, which is the correct call. Denver will absolutely keep Dart in check and force turnovers. But Hurts against Minnesota is also a bad matchup, especially because Minnesota had two weeks to prepare for this game. The saving grace for Hurts is that the Vikings have been bad enough against the run to make that area an emphasis against Saquon, which should open the field up for AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert specifically. Hurts should be good for 20. No edge.
Cam has 2025 Saquon, who isn’t playing like 2024 Saquon, and he has Jeanty, who is heading for a Saquon-esque career arc, complete with the injuries due to reckless usage. Spencer has CMC, Achane, and Etienne, who are all playing like 2024 Saquon, which should make this an easy win for Spencer despite the better fantasy narrative for Cameron. That said, Achane and Etienne’s matchups are bad. Achane faces the #1 run defense in gross Cleveland weather, and Etienne faces the #7 run defense in gross London weather. And I don’t think the Dolphins or Jags are likely to win their games, meaning they’re likely to have below-average RB usage, and the check-downs and screens these guys rely on won’t amount to much when they’re stuck in mud after the catch. Meanwhile, I said the Vikings would emphasize run defense against Saquon, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be any good. And as bottled up as Jeanty will be on 24 of his carries, if that 25th carry goes for 50 yards, that’s a win for fantasy. No edge.
And here’s where the tide turns and we get to Cameron’s strength: pass-catchers. Tyler Warren is TE1 right now, and it’s legit. He gets a ton of targets, he catches everything, he gets yards after catch, and on four carries this year he has two first downs and a touchdown. Amon-Ra is WR5. Drake London is WR17, but he has back-to-back 20-point games coming into this week against the banged-up 49ers. Ladd McConkey is back, having scored his season-high in consecutive weeks coming into this one. Spencer is starting Michael Pittman, stacking DeVonta with Hurts, and staying on the Hunter Henry roller coaster. No contest. Massive edge Cam.
Cameron has the league’s best kicker, but Spencer has the season-leader for longest FG. Both are in domes, both offenses are good but might struggle to get in the end zone for [reasons]. Both coaches are pretty conservative on fourth down. This should be a real battle. No edge.
Both of you are just throwing IDP spaghetti at the wall, which nearly lost you your matchups last week. Somethings gotta give. If I were you, I would be overhauling those margins in what should be a tight matchup. Since it’s tight, I’m fine chasing floor. I’m adding and starting both Bears LBs in a rainy game in Chicago. If I want to diversify more, then I’ll take one Bear and pair him with either Cedric Gray or Quay Walker. Don’t touch Daiyan Henley. Technically he is on waivers, but he’s mine. I’m peeing on him; that means I own him. Honestly this advice is more for Cam, who should cut Zaire and Parsons, plus he needs to add one of the DBs I shouted out earlier. I think Spencer is good everywhere, but I would still change out Demario Davis for one of these other LBs.
I’m giving Cam the win, but it’s contingent on him starting Dimes and improving the IDP group. If Cam starts Nix and Spencer adds the better LB, that could be enough to swing it.
Sean is dominating despite not knowing what the hell is going on at IDP, like at all. He is fortunate to have randomly relied upon the league-leader in tackles Jordyn Brooks, but he’s chasing ghosts everywhere else. He’s gotten some good games, some bad ones, hasn’t mattered, but the ceiling is crashing down for reasons I mentioned earlier.
Oliver has Mahomes vs. Vegas, and though it’s a likely blowout where Mahomes gets to rest for a quarter, the Chiefs are still retooling the offense. They want to be better running the ball, and the best way to do that is to get the back seven farther away from the line of scrimmage. They want to put on tape how deadly this passing attack is, and they will continue over-emphasizing their passing dominance until they get back into the division lead.
Sean is starting Dak over Maye. He’s cooking with the rarest spice, which is the choice between two elite QBs. He’s chosen right between them one time, last week, and he set a scoring record. This week, he’s chasing the obvious shootout between Dallas and Washington in a dome instead of going with Maye in what should be a slow march of death between the Pats and Titans. Looks like a second straight right pick. No edge.
Benching the Magic SkatteBus just because he’s playing the Broncos is fucking bullshit, I hope you know. Yes, the ceiling is low because you don’t expect the Broncos to allow points. But you’re outside your fucking mind if you start two TEs over a bell-cow RB. Or you’re trolling. You’re starting Skattebo. You’re just letting Sean enjoy that little green win% bar and rest on his laurels.
That said, who do you start at TE between Kelce and Kittle? Lol jk, I hope you’re not even considering Kelce. Sure, he’s having a little renaissance and is coming off his best two games, but the Raiders’ coaches are the Des Moines of the NFL. They believe it is 2019. They are going to bracket Kelce and force Mahomes to make tougher throws (which of course will be monster gains but the Raiders won’t update mid-game).
Everything else is pretty clear: Kamara and Kimani vs. Taylor, Rico, and Javonte. Kamara is hurt, might get traded, plays in muck this week. Kimani is a DOG who ran for 200 yards in FIVE different games in college. That’s Tevin Coleman territory, and regardless of what you think of Tevin Coleman’s whole career, his early career was siiiick. Taylor faces a Chargers defense that is a run funnel, but Dowdle goes back to splitting carries with Chuba (albeit less so this week than long-term), and Javonte is back to being a pumpkin. The Commanders run D is average to below average, but the Cowboys’ o-line is bad, and the Panthers provided the blueprint on how to dismantle it. Slight edge Sean if no Skattebo, massive edge Oliver once he stops toying with Sean.
Metcalf had eight points. Bengals CB DJ Turner has serious wheels, and he kept pace with Metcalf all night. I think DK is still an auto-start. Most teams just don’t have that guy. Sutton has a strong matchup in terms of whoever the Giants put directly in front of him, but Bo Nix has to be able to get it to him with that Giants’ pass rush in his lap all day. I don’t love that, and I would pivot to AJ Brown. Which AGAIN is Oliver’s whole ploy this week. Let Sean think he’s benching his best two players, even putting his worst starting RB at the top of the lineup. It’s these psychological games that most people fail to appreciate. Football has chess-like elements. Oliver gets the gestalt, which is why he has what it takes to trip up the juggernaut this week. Sean starts Waddle in the muck and Pickens who was feasting as the only WR available, but Lamb and Turpin are back. Pickens is good, and while he should theoretically benefit from a lack of attention from the defense, defenses weren’t really respecting him. Carolina intentionally took away everyone except Pickens, so Pickens had a monster day while Dallas—this is the important thing—lost the game! Slight edge Oliver.
Trey McBride needs Jacoby Brissett, but it looks like Kyler Murray is healthy enough to play. McBride continues to be great, but we’re back in the 10-range as opposed to the 20- with Brissett. Meanwhile, the 49ers are bringing Kittle back, and he’s bringing the spirit of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa with him. He’s making up for lost time with 100 yards and 2 TDs against the Falcons. The 49ers will continue their improbable run and maintain the division lead with a home win over Atlanta. The 49er fans are going to be fucking crazy. It will be like they are playing with an extra defender. (Side note: Michael Penix might not make it through this game.) Edge Oliver.
Ka’imi Fairbairn is good, and the Texans should be good enough to get into field goal range before getting stuffed. Eddy Piñeiro has been money for the 49ers, but he’s been aided by their relative struggle getting the ball into the endzone. Kittle steals those points directly from Piñeiro this week, but Piñeiro hits five XPs. Edge Oliver.
Oliver stays chasing sacks with Casa Bonitto and revenge-game Dorance Armstrong, but Armstrong is hurt and might miss. At that point, against the juggernaut, you probably want to keep chasing ceiling, and I know you love Monday night action, so I’m recommending you jump on the Seahawks pass rush before Corey does. DO NOT go for any of the other Monday teams. Danielle Hunter is tempting, but Seattle is getting elite tackle play on both sides, which is why Darnold is thriving. The Bucs really only have to worry about Hutch, and the Lions are great at limiting sacks. You want those Hawks.
Sean got dick from Herbig, but he has the aforementioned tackle-leader in a run-heavy, muddy game. That’s 15 FP. He adds another 10 or so if he gets to double up on Dolphins LBs like he was before Dodson’s concussion. Tyson Campbell has been a solid play at DB because he’s plays tight man coverage and faces opposing WR1s, plus offenses haven’t updated their software to reflect how good he is, so he still sees a bunch of targets. Miami will try to throw even in the slop because they can’t help themselves. My gut says no, but my gut also told me not to start Flacco or Rodgers over Darnold, so…
Oliver wins, the force shifts closer to balance. Sean remains the top team in the league as the other 5-1 teams fall, too. It’s just that time of year, that kind of week, whatever you want to call it. Weird things are brewing, as evidenced by the Metamucil Shootout already in the books for Week 7.
The key that I think the Lions will trigger is the attention paid to Baker as a runner and as a mover in the pocket. The smart move for the Lions is mush rushing the way the Patriots did to end Kyler Murray’s early ascension. Not only does it close QB rushing lanes, it raises the height of the wall he has to throw over, and Baker has developed a habit of dancing in the pocket after having to avoid so much pressure behind the makeshift line. If the Lions can force him into wasted motion and get their hands up for batted balls, while keeping the WRs in front of the secondary, they can hold the Bucs to field goals and keep their offense in its ideal rhythm of being able to call any play on any down.
I’m not loving the universal talking point of Baker Mayfield being the league MVP because it reminds me of the episode of Community where Jeff starts taking antidepressants and it causes his already dangerously large ego to explode. Baker’s resurgence was borne of his great humbling. I also don’t love being the less hungry team in a matchup, and I don’t love having to play at Detroit on Monday night. The Lions have all the bulletin board material, all the shoulder chips, and they’re injuries are exclusive to their secondary. The offense is still elite. The run front is dominant.
The Lions are favorited by 5.5 points for good reason. The only shot the Bucs have of winning is by taking advantage of the Lions’ depleted secondary, which seems easy after what we did to the 49ers, but the 49ers were out of their depth losing Warner mid-game, and they didn’t have a good pass rush regardless. The Lions have held every offense they’ve faced to under 250 passing yards and four of six offenses under 100 rushing yards. The Chiefs’ four TDs against the Lions this past week were three passes inside the ten and a one-yard misdirection power option where the Lions lined up offsides anyway. The Bucs don’t really run the plays the Chiefs scored on. The Bucs’ two passing touchdowns against the 49ers were due to Kam Johnson getting to do return man stuff on a run after catch against bad tackling and a deep shot that Baker arguably overthrew, that Tez Johnson had to go all Elastic Man. Like, the reason Tez thought the MVP chants were for him is only explicable by him being fully aware of how legendary that catch was in the moment. The Lions don’t have great players in the secondary, but those Bucs TDs were tackling and communication issues, which the Lions won’t allow.
I want the Bucs to win, but I’m ready for this balloon to come back to Earth. I’m rooting for the Bucs to win, but I’m expecting a sensible loss to an elite offense getting the benefit of playing at home in the dome. I also keep seeing Tez Johnson available on waivers and feeling like I want to start him against Baker. The gut is screaming, and it’s only partially due to the bean curd shrimp and pho I had last night. I live in fear of Evan benching Kupp and making a move to add Tez as his second flex this week.
And as elite as the Lions’ offense is, it’s strength on strength against this Bucs’ defense in all but one area. Vita Vea can maul with the Lions’ big nasties. Dean can run with Jamo, Parrish and Winfield can bracket Amon-Ra, Tykee can take LaPorta, and David can play downhill all game long. The issue is Jahmyr Gibbs as a receiver. We just don’t have that guy. With McCollum and Morrison and Izien healthy again, we are deep enough at DB to play dime, but that’s tough to do against the Lions who only play 3 WRs 50% of the time. Parrish and Izien can tackle, but they can’t shed blocks against TEs, and one hit from one of these big Detroit linemen would knock them out of the game.
All this to say that 5.5 is an appropriate line because the Bucs have a decent chance to beat it, but it would take some advantageous bounces and my worst Tez Johnson fears realized for us to win outright.
$181 – Corey is holding the bag with all its negative connotations, but part of that is due to getting good free agents for, well, free. Diggs was $5, Hill was $5, but Stafford, Queen, Lloyd, Hufanga, and Mason Taylor were $0 waiver adds or free agents, and Corey is in the purgatory of having too many players who are too good to drop despite not scoring enough to win. The move might be to use one of those tweener players and a pocketful of FAAB in a trade with Oliver to upgrade a starting spot.
$165 – Evan has been winning, hasn’t needed anything, but he’s had such a bad bench that it would have been better to have spent a little more by now because by time November hits and the real football starts, there won’t be anyone left worth the bids. You know this because you threw $20 at a third-string RB. Now, you’re in position to outbid anyone for anything in the playoffs, but that’s a marginal advantage. It’s not worth heading in with no depth. Evan’s gonna end up spending a high pick at the deadline.
$165 – Brian has no wins and a bunch of money, which I can’t condone. He’s got the bench space. He’s reacquired Cam Ward, if you want some insight into his delusion. He’s got timeshare backs across the board. He should have been more aggressive for the Dowdle and White types.
$160 – Max’s $10 bid on Chaad has been so good that it washes the bad taste of spending the other $30 on kickers and IDPs.
$148 – no wins and tons of money is really useless unless you can scam someone into giving you a future pick for FAAB.
$133 – Spe spent way too much on Darius Slayton, which was the right position but the wrong guy. We’ve gotten all the examples we need of why you should only spend FAAB on legitimate top receivers. Even QJ was a bad bid at the time because he wasn’t the clear #1.
$131 – Cam made the right bid for Ridley. Very funny that nobody else bid. Ridley is either the #1 or he’s getting traded to a good offense. His other big tickets were Dimes for 21 and Loveland for 15. Cam’s crushing the FAAB game.
$129 – Sean went hard in Week 1 for a couple WRs he’s since dropped. Since then, he’s kept the bids under $5 and added $20 in the most questionable trade we’ve seen since outlawing the veto. His best buys have been Dowdle for $5, and two good kickers for a combined $4.
$108 – Coleman broke even on FAAB trades by sending my $20 to Sean. He made the instructive (albeit desperate) move of spending large on three players following Week 1. The waiver wire didn’t exactly dry up, but Coleman got three starters in one go while the rest of us are lucky to get one of these big bids to work out.
$95 – I spent $72 on Burrow and Henley in my big spree, and neither of them are on my roster. Since then the highest bid I’ve made has been $3 for Darnold, and I’m scoring on some little bids, and cost is so low on the ones that don’t work that I can cut them without regret, like I did with Gay after dropping a random $2 on him.
$85 – Shelby went on a spree the same week as I did, dropping $100 on Troy Franklin, Zach Ertz, and Wan’Dale Robinson, and the one of those I thought was a truly bad bid turns out to be the de facto #1 WR for his team scoring 15-20 points per game on Shelby’s bench while the other two pretty much suck and have been dropped.
$8 – Oliver is going to swing a trade for FAAB soon enough. The Kelce move was wild but not debilitating. Waiting for free agency is viable, and for people like Oliver and me are probably better off having those guardrails to allow us to wait for the week to unfold before making rash moves.
Well, take from all that what you will. Take Kennedy’s team apart bit by bit. Take Sean down. Take stock in statistics because they matter now. Take big swings on waivers if you’re one of the high-FAAB teams. Take care.
