[boilerplate intro about Week 1 overreactions, yada who cares, let’s get to it]
We learned something useful about each team, or we reinforced something we already knew.
Arizona – Kyler solidifies his status as a perfectly average QB. The Arizona offense is functional and predictable. The run game is strong, McBride is the top option in the passing game, and Marv is becoming more valuable in fantasy.
Atlanta – Michael Penix is legit. Bijan is the best RB in the league, but the offensive line is going to cap his ceiling in games where he doesn’t have a 50-yard receiving TD on the first fucking drive. Drake London has a shoulder injury, and there is nothing happening behind him on this depth chart. Casey Washington played 95% of snaps, drew six targets, and gained 30 yards. Pitts and Bijan are going to get 25 combined targets next week if London and Mooney can’t go. Mooney is a must-add off the wire.
Baltimore – the best offense in the league until their odds of winning rise above 90% in a game, at which point they become the Vince Young Eagles.
Buffalo – the second best offense in the league until the game is on the line, at which point they become the car in every episode of Man Vs. Car.
Carolina – work in progress, tough sledding without their star LT especially once they were forced to throw late in the game. My bet that they would consolidate the offense around T-Mac and Chuba is paying off so far.
Chicago – Caleb is legit. Ben Johnson is legit. The skill players are legit. The Vikings defense is just insane. And Johnson made a huge mistake on the final kickoff that shaved 40 seconds off the Bears’ final drive.
Cincy – this line isn’t going to hold up to good pressure, which is bad news in a division with Myles Garrett and TJ Watt. The twin-TE red zone offense is going to keep Tee Higgins out of the top 15 at WR. And we can’t capitalize in fantasy because we don’t know which TE (Gesicki or Fant or even Sample) is going to get the TD from week to week.
Cleveland – they look like a normal football team with average QB play. Nothing spicy, no dumpster fire. Just normal, boring, balanced offense spreading the ball around to see who their guys are. Tillman and Jeudy each caught 5/8 balls, each had a long of 25, and had about the same yardage (52 for Tillman, 66 for Jeudy). Rookie TE Harold Fannin led the team with 7 catches on 9 targets, 63 yards. Rookie RB Dylan Sampson was 8/8 for 64 yards. The Bengals defense is a mess, and the Browns nearly papercut them to death. The Browns were hurt by an interception off Jeudy’s hands and a missed field goal by Not Dustin Hopkins.
Dallas – Javonte Williams played 77% of snaps. Miles Sanders spelled him, broke off a 50-yard run, showed zero fucking long speed after the initial burst, and got run down my multiple defenders. He later fumbled, so Javonte will continue to dominate snaps, get goal line work, benefit from solid o-line play. In my mind, he is another James Conner. The whole offense looked great except for the drops, which are not a sticky stat and shouldn’t scare us off. George Pickens is still a head-case, still has all the talent he came into the league with, has gotten not a decimal point better at this game since entering the league. He is firmly part of the ensemble in this offense, and it’s only a matter of time until he’s throwing water coolers and getting traded for a 5th Round pick.
Denver – Bo Nix is bad, but the offense is good. The problem with Nix is footwork, and that hurts his whole game. He can scoot, he is not shy about throwing 50/50 balls to Courtland Sutton, and his screen/checkdown game is ideal. Can easily see him fluctuating between 10 and 30 points per week, but I don’t want to be on that rollercoaster. I’d be happy to have Sutton, Dobbins, or Harvey. Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims are decent stashes, but they are firmly the fourth and fifth options right now.
Detroit – couple of issues here, the main on being brain drain. Ben Johnson is impossible to replace, and John Morton does not come close at all. He’s been in the league for 22 years. The first time he became an OC with Todd Bowles’ Jets, when Morton was already in his late forties. The Jets’ offense finished bottom-five, granted the roster was doo-doo, baby. 38-yo Josh McCown, pre-retirement Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, Robbie Chosen, Jermaine Kearse, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins were the heavy hitters. That was in 2017. Morton was fired after one year and this is his first OC job since. He most recently worked under John Gruden and Sean Payton, which means he hasn’t called plays since 2017, and the last time he called plays before that was 2009 at USC, when Matt Barkley had 15 TDs and 14 INTs. He was retained as OC but Lane Kiffin took over playcalling in 2010. Under Kiffin, Barkley had 26, 36, and 39 TDs. Morton has never gotten a fair shake, but it can’t be a coincidence teams hire him in bad spots and move on from him quickly. The term is “stop-gap.” The other term is Peter Principle. I expect Dan Campbell to take over playcalling by Week 6. I don’t expect Detroit to be a top-ten offense because the other issue is the offensive line. HOF center Frank Ragnow retired, and the Lions did not bring in a center to replace him. They moved 33-yo Graham Glasgow from guard, where Glasgow is perennial a 77 in Madden, a fine starter. They drafted guard Tate Ratledge and are developing him at center, starting him at right guard. Their starting left guard is a second-year sixth-round pick who is developing into a quality starter but has obvious holes in his game. The tackles are excellent to elite, and that will help, against normal defenses, but the Packers exposed them. They even slid Parsons inside on obvious passing downs to maximize the advantage. Now, the wrinkle: Goff is below average when under pressure but absolute dynamite against the blitz. For the first time in a long time, teams will have an easier time getting pressure without having to blitz. The perfect storm of shit for Goff.
Green Bay – in hindsight, they were always going to crush the Lions. The game was in Lambeau, the Packers have nearly perfect continuity from last year to this year, and we just talked about what’s wrong with the Lions, AND THEN the Packers added Parsons with enough time to prepare him but no time for other teams to figure out how they would use him. The Lions’ best CB left the game for good after the first quarter. This was a cakewalk unlike anything the Packers will see again, but they will bulldoze their next three opponents (‘Ders, Browns, Cowboys) and go into their bye 4-0, then go 6-0 after beating the shit out of the Bengals and Cardinals before maybe getting challenged by the Steelers, definitely destroying the Panthers, and then finally they play the Eagles Week 10 and their schedule becomes pretty challenging after that. But what’s important to us: Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs are the most important players on this offense, and everything else plays off of them. Kraft probably won’t get huge usage, but we could finally see him flirt with 100 targets (not a great start with just four, though he had a TD). I would hate to rely on anybody but Jacobs. The versatility and depth of the offense make it impractical to consistently get a lot of targets for any individual.
Houston – they were not setup for success, and they did not succeed. Coming in with a new OC (again), and reconstructed o-line, and injuries to Mixon and Kirk, the last thing they needed was to play a defense like the Rams: young, fast, multiple, familiar, everything a defense needs to get the best of an offense that doesn’t even understand itself. The Texans still have a sick defense, still have an anemic offense, only now they don’t even know how to get Nico Collins open. They face the Bucs in Week 2, as the Bucs get an early revenge tour of their worst losses from last year. I thought Nick Chubb looked good, but we didn’t get to see whether he has any breakaway juice. Without that, his two down role, 4-5 yards per carry don’t get you very far. The answer to who will step up as the Texans second option in the passing game was not answered in this game, but it’s gotta be someone.
Indy – He is no longer Danny Dimes. From now on, he is Indianapolis Jones. He’s also the boulder. He’s also a trap. But it doesn’t matter. His scheme, his line, and his weapons are so fucking good, it does not matter whether he is good or not. It matters whether he is good enough. He is good enough to lead his team to score every drive of the game, which is a rare if not entirely unique feat, although he did it against a Miami defense that has an insane front four but apparently behind them are just a bunch cardboard cutouts. For context, the Colts rested all the starters except Jones (and the line, obvi) in the 4th quarter, and we all know they did this to avoid the Anthony Richardson conversation.
Jacksonville – (resist the urge to refer to Travis Hunter as Twofer, resist the urge) Travis Hunter, two-way player extraordinaire and second-round pick by Evan, recorded a tackle and caught passes. Aaand that’s it. He caught six passes for 30 yards and zero first downs. Disgusting. The passing offense was terrible, and the rushing offense was only okay. Brian Thomas avoided a disaster day by scoring on an end-around inside the ten, which shouldn’t have worked and probably wouldn’t have worked if the Panthers had a legitimate MLB to call the defense. The offense wasn’t totally gross. Brenton Strange appears to be in the process of breaking out. Travis Etienne is reclaiming the starting role. I’m not taking any part of it, but now it’s just because I’m petty and not because they’re hopeless.
Kansas City – they lost a close one to the Chargers, and you have to imagine they’d have fared better if Worthy hadn’t left after like five plays. As we’ve been told a thousand times this offseason, they are bringing back the deep ball, and they are deep enough to do it without Worthy. It’s great for Coleman that Hollywood Brown got 16 targets, not so great he only got 99 yards out of it, especially because 49 of them came on one play. I mean, we love a guy capable of taking the top of the defense, but if that 49-yarder missed, like Mahomes missed multiple deep shots to other players, then Brown is sitting at 9 catches for 50 yards. Travis Kelce won’t score many 40-yd YAC TDs, but all that means is that’s gravy on top of his typical short-field scores, putting him in line to get double-digit TDs again. I think people are worried Kelce will go out like Jason Witten, but it’s looking more like Tony Gonzalez right now. Run game looked like garbage, and they only ran the ball ten times (excluding scrambles), so you kind of respect them going away from it and leaning into stuff that worked. You definitely respect 50 yards, 5 first downs, and a TD on the ground for Mahomes. Chiefs will have a tough time running left behind a rookie tackle and a second-year guard converting from tackle.
Las Vegas – Great start to the new era. Geno completed 70% of his passes and gained 15 yards per completion, 360 yards total. Bowers had 100 yards despite only playing half the game, and Jakobi had 97 yards on a team-high 10 targets. The offensive line is not good. I know this because the Patriots’ d-line is not good, and they made the Raiders look completely clueless against stunts. I also know this because Ashton Jeanty gained 38 yards on 19 carries, which should be impossible. Look, this also means the Patriots came in with a plan to take Jeanty away and make Geno beat them, and they still managed to sack Geno four times and force an INT, despite the other success Geno had.
Chargers – Justin Herbert has arrived. In year six, age 27, his athletic prime, he has put it all together. He’s lasering the ball all over the field, and he’s running the ball instead of checking down. The result is 73% completion, 300 passing yards, 3 TDs, 30 rushing yards, and a first down. Keep in mind an offensive penalty erased another 15-yard first down, and you’re talking about seven points just from rushing, against an elite defense. I am very excited to see what that translates to against the Raiders’ defense next week. Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Omarion Hampton are going to be huge. Quentin Johnston isn’t quite fool’s gold, isn’t quite gold, is worth a roster spot, but I wouldn’t blow FAAB on him. $5 if I needed help. $10 if I’m Coleman and have extra FAAB anyway. $11 if I’m trying to beat Coleman’s bid and be really disappointed in myself a week later.
Rams – played an elite Texans’ defense and managed to look pretty good anyway. Stafford was dealing despite taking three sacks. Puka had 130 yards, Kyren grinded his way to 15 FP. If that’s what you get against this defense, then the rest of the season should go very, very well. But you always worry about a dome team going on the road, which is exactly what the Rams are doing travelling to the Titans and Eagles the next two weeks. Wouldn’t add Stafford, is all I’m saying. Would keep starting Adams, Puka, and Kyren. Wouldn’t expect anyone else to be a significant fantasy player. Tyler Higbee led TEs in snaps and got zero stats. Rookie Terrance Ferguson only played on special teams.
Miami – Mmm. Debating not even doing it. Kevin Clark often refers to a philosophy among coaches that you should just completely erase this game from your mind and move on. Don’t even study the film. Give the players a clean slate. Give yourself a clean slate. But also… this o-line is still bad, and everyone on this offense is just. So. Small. Even Waller (whenever he plays) is a slender TE despite being tall. I knew I should have dropped Ollie Gordon; I just convinced myself that maybe they were sandbagging how bad Achane’s injury was, that maybe Gordon would feature and score a ton of points, that he’s actually the appropriate size to survive the punishment associated with this scheme. Alas… But on the bright side, I get to participate in our first weekly waiver run of the FAAB Era.
Minnesota – JJ McCarthy made some good throws, but overall he looked out of his depth. The two touchdowns looked incredible in real time, and upon review the were indeed incredible. The Jefferson touchdown was jammed into traffic in the red zone, and the Jones touchdown was underthrown by a couple yards, fortunate that Jones was being covered by a LB only playing because TJ Edwards was out. It’s worrisome that Jefferson and Jones went into halftime with under 2 FP combined, even if they finished the game with 25 combined (which, again, required two extremely unlikely TDs).
New England – in terms of results, this wasn’t great, but in terms of process, the Patriots are doing just fine. It is nearly impossible to rebuild an offensive line in one offseason, especially when multiple years of free agent duds screw up your cap. It’s so funny that the Pats played the Raiders because I get to say the same things about this line that I said about the Raiders’: I know it’s bad because it looked bad against a bad d-line. It wasn’t nearly as bad a Jeanty’s day, but the Pats RBs combined for 45 yards on 13 attempts. They featured Henderson in the passing game, where he was 6/6 for just 24 yards due to multiple screens failing to launch. But more importantly, allow me to victory lap my Kayshon Boutte take, and please don’t bid any FAAB on him so I can fully enjoy being right about him.
New Orleans – similar to the Browns, despite all the offseason concerns, this is just a normal football team. They have a young QB with exciting tools, a bunch of good weapons for him, a good offensive scheme, and a decent o-line. Second-year, first-round guard Taliese Fuaga was injured, which sucks, but the scheme can mask the deficiency with four other solid (not spectacular) linemen. The Saints started this game in hurry-up offense, which signals a lack of confidence in being able to play this thing straight-up, but it was the right move to get the offense in rhythm and rolling. It didn’t amount to much against a good Cardinals’ defense, especially when you consider the only touchdown was aided by egregious holding right at the moment when Kamara made the cut to get free for the score, BUT only losing by seven to a good team is a good result for Week 1. Rattler didn’t blow up the box score running, but he did enjoy a handful of designed runs, he moved well in and out of the pocket, and he has a cannon arm. I’m sold on the Saints being viable for fantasy. The question is whether they continue to feature Juwan Johnson. He played all but one snap and caught 8 of 11 targets for 76 yards. He just barely dropped a TD while getting smashed in the endzone. Do they continue to throw 45 times a game or will they balance it more? Because they were able to get 13 targets to Olave, 11 to Johnson, and 9 to Shaheed. What’s gross is that those 33 targets gained 160 yards. That’s piss poor. One concern and potential change coming: Kamara was not featured, getting the ball just 13 times, including only two targets. He did play 79% of snaps, which is elite for RBs, so I’d feel pretty good keeping him in the lineup.
Giants – okay, I really want to ignore this one, and I actually have a reason: I believe that Daboll is intentionally tanking the early part of the season by starting Russ and handing playcalling duties to Kafka. Once the Giants drop their first four games, the fans, team, and ownership will clamor for Dart and Daboll to come in and save this thing. The Giants will finish below .500, get a good pick, and Daboll and Dart will get a solid first-round pick to solidify the o-line and get one more chance. Russ looked bad, Nabers almost quit mid-game, the line was bad, the RBs were bad, but it’s all by design. And Nabers still put up double-digit FP despite a 5/13 receiving line. With Dart that’ll go up to 9/13 and double the yardage every. Single. Game. Tell me why Darius Slayton played 97% of snaps and got zero moon balls from Russ. This is not a coincidence. They are setting him up to fail!
Jets – Tanner Engstrand wasted no time putting together his resume for a head-coaching job. He got this offense cooking immediately against a good Steelers defense. These packages with Fields, Breece, and Braelon in the backfield together are going to destroy defenders’ will to live, especially when you fold in RPOs to Garrett Wilson and Mason Taylor (88% of snaps as a rookie TE who missed half the preseason). The Jets probably would have won this game if Fields had run the ball instead of laying a medicine ball on Garrett Wilson at the last second, and the coaches will let him know. Fields probably won’t score three TDs per game, but who’s to say? The Jets’ tackles are super young, but they are already among the best tandems in the league, especially because the rest of the line is solid. They lost Alijah Vera-Tucker to a season-ending injury like a week ago, and they still have three starting-caliber interior linemen. These young dudes gave a veteran Steelers team (that was also rolling on offense) a hell of a game.
Philly – Definitely disappointing if you have either Eagles’ receiver because Dallas doesn’t even have a good secondary, as evidenced by a deep catch for Jahan Dotson where he kind of just outran his man and bent his route toward the middle. There was nothing to that play. That 50-yard play to the fourth or fifth option in the passing game. The Eagles are perfect. If not for the Jalen Carter ejection, they probably win this game 30-10. It’s not time to panic about the WRs, and it will probably never be time. But you wonder about AJ Brown’s injury. And you wonder if the Super Bowl kind of takes the diva energy out of the equation as long as they’re winning games.
Pittsburgh – I want to start with snap counts: DK 95%, Calvin Austin 80%, Jonnu 66%, Gainwell 54%, Freiermuth 50%, Darnell Washington 46%, Jaylen Warren 45%, Ben Skowronek 18%, Roman Wilson 18%, Scooter Miller 16%, Connor Heyward 7%, Kaleb Johnson 4%. FWIW, the Steelers threw the ball on 11 of 12 plays in the fourth quarter, which probably boosted Austin and Gainwell’s numbers compared to their eventual season average. DK Metcalf was also essentially lined up at fullback at least once, which sucks for opposing defense because if you’re not checking jersey numbers closely, he very much resembles a fullback, especially wearing number 4. But anyway, for our purposes, the pass volume and overall play volume for the Steelers is going to be low, but the efficiency is going to be high, so maybe we take our shots at Austin and Jonnu if they are the second and third receivers.
San Fran – McCaffrey is back, and everyone else is hurt. Literally it’s just McCaffrey and Pearsall and the FB Juszczyk left standing. Purdy, Jauan, and crucially Kittle got hurt. Mac Jones might start Week 2 with Luke Farrell at TE and I guess Kendrick Bourne as WR2? And you know what? Kyle Shanahan is going to will them to 300 yards and multiple TDs. The 49ers cut their kicker without even trying out another one yet, so maybe they’ll just go for it every 4th down in opposing territory? Man, fuck this team. I’m so glad I got no part of this.
Seattle – offense looked good overall but couldn’t convert on third down, like at all. They were 3 of 10 and did not go for it on any of those seven fourth downs. JSN only played 77% of snaps, but he caught 9/13 targets for 124 yards. He also fumbled twice, losing one. Darnold was fine. The line is bad, and it showed in the run game. The 49ers had six tackles for loss (that’s a lot), and the Seahawks’ longest run was under 10 yards (that’s hideous). Charbonnet out-snapped and out-carried Walker and scored the lone TD, but Walker had three catches for four yards, so who’s laughing now? Just kidding. Walker is cooked. He’s Rachaad White 2.0, providing exceptional value for a backup but capping out at RB25 season-long. Tory Horton should remain on your radar despite zero targets. He played 54% of snaps and my guess is the line didn’t give Darnold time to throw deep. Aside from JSN’s 40-yarder, the longest catch of the day was nine yards (hideous). I don’t think Kupp is washed, but Horton is the only speed element this offense has, and they’re going to figure out how to unlock him.
Tampa – hell yeah
Tennessee – Cam Ward is awesome. It took him like three plays to do something totally wild to turn a dead play into a huge gain. He was in hell against an elite Denver defense and the box score corroborates it. He took six sacks, lost a fumble, and the Titans didn’t score a TD. But they scored four FGs. They moved the ball. They kept the game in reach despite Denver absolutely clamping them. They took what the defense gave them, and it wasn’t enough. But the future is bright. Worth noting that Elic Ayomanor is the WR2 with 79% of snaps, and Chig Okonkwo played 88% of snaps. The first week we see Ward throw for 250 yards, scoop ‘em up.
Washington – If Terry McLaurin had participated in the offseason, Washington would have won by 30 instead of 15. The lack of timing between McLaurin and Daniels was apparent, and it will get cleaned up. I’m pretty sure Bill took the starting job already. Ekeler started the game and played all the snaps on the first two drives, but Bill ended the game with more carries and broke off a 40-yard run. Ekeler is still the third-down back because of his blocking, and he’ll be used enough to keep Bill under 50% of snaps for the time being. Deebo is Deebo again. 100 yards total, a long rushing TD, and legitimate WR routes and targets. Cheat code. Daniels is obviously amazing. Ertz is probably worth an add once the electric TEs are gone.
Cameron went from #1 in the Week 1 rankings to #12 in Week 1 scoring. Something I didn’t give enough attention to post-draft: Amon-Ra over CeeDee Lamb is unconscionable. But anyway, Cameron would have been in the mix for the melee win if he had a better QB and if the Lions and Colts games hadn’t gotten so out of hand. Aidan Hutchinson is a pass-rusher, and the Lions were losing by a lot for basically the whole game. Zaire Franklin is a run stopper, and the Colts led by so much for so long that the Dolphins barely ran. In “normal” games, you could see an extra 10 minimum there, Caleb over Nix gets you 17, Lamb over Amon-Ra gets you 7, suddenly you’re up over 140 points. Instead, brutal developments: Lions are bad, Ken Walker is losing half his workload from last year, Bo Nix is bad, Drake London is hurt, Worthy is Hurt, Olave is hurt. Yeeeesh. But no, honestly, Cam’s team is fine. Flip-flopping your QB situation based on one week is right where you want to be. And with five injured players, you don’t have to worry about lineup decisions. You’re doing great!
Sean was pretty screwed from the jump after Dak and Pickens combined for 15 while Javonte had 21 on the bench. And he was pre-screwed by assembling the least inspiring IDP group you’ve ever seen. Van Ginkel is cool, but Singleton, Brisker, and Cashman? I honestly don’t understand what you thought would happen, or where you thought the floor or ceiling would be. Luckily it’s just one week and now you have your pick of free agents while most of us are standing pat. Getting Javonte and Keenan in your lineup will be huge, and Dak looked amazing. The low fantasy production is an anomaly. I’m sorry, I’m not convinced Javonte and Keenan are, like, the kind of players we honestly expect to save someone’s season. Sean’s core is Dak, Taylor, Puka, McBride, and the hope is that three of Javonte, Keenan, Pickens, and Waddle make this a complete team? That’s uncomfortable.
Shelby’s bench went OFF while her starting lineup checked out. Deebo, Chase Brown, Dicker, and Anderson earned their keep, Cooper was a nice (if weird) add Sunday morning, and everyone except Hockenson and Jalon Walker gave you a respectable floor. Oh, Joe Burrow stunk it up to the tune of 25 fewer points than Justin Herbert. I think we’ve got QB controversy! Burrow is better, just as he was when he was drafted four picks ahead of Herbert, but Herbert has better coaches, better scheme, better legs, better hair, better ass, probably smells better, doesn’t eat his own boogers, wouldn’t neglect Tee Higgins, the list goes on and on. Herbert has always had a better arm, better mobility. The one thing Burrow has is… moxie? JK. It’s processing. But processing isn’t worth as many fantasy points as rushing yards and first downs. Also this is how bad the Bengals o-line is: even without Rashawn Slater, the Chargers’ line is better than the Bengals’. Shelby’s got other positions to figure out, too. Jaylen Warren and Keon Coleman need to get in this lineup, but Shebly realistically only has one open spot.
Corey is the only team who had the winning points on the bench coming from players you could reasonably have argued for before the games. JSN over STA is one. Garrett Wilson over Nick Chubb another. I like to think I’d have played Rodgers over Stroud in the alternate timeline where I was hit on the head repeatedly with a hammer before and during our draft. But lucky for you, the Rodgers this is working out, because the Stroud thing sure isn’t—don’t worry; he’ll torch the Bucs and get on track. Those three moves would have given Corey an extra 39 FP, giving him 155 and a melee win. I’m not even trying to do the Monday morning QB thing. I honestly think I would have set my lineup that way, and the larger point is that among the teams that lost Week 1, Corey is probably in the best shape.
Brian, meanwhile, is in the worst shape. Okay fine, second worst to Cam. But at least Cam has a starting RB. Brian is hoping either TreVeyon Henderson, Tyrone Tracy, or Isiah Pacheco can be a top-24 RB, minimum. I’m fairly convinced any of them could do it, but I’m more or less certain only one of them will do it (Henderson, obv). Brian is in bad shape, though, because, outside of Daniels, Marv, and Oluokun, his players didn’t play well. At all. And for some, you don’t see a bounceback coming. You kinda worry this is what they are. Like, BTJ and Chase should be okay, but it’s not impossible for BTJ to go the way of DJ Chark. It’s pretty impossible for Chase to falter, but he also just did it, scoring under 4 FP this week.
Max had a pretty rough day if not for 47 from Allen and 21 from Bosa. Because even with all that, he only edged Kennedy by 4 FP for the final melee win. Nico Collins should bounce back, but Jameson Williams? He’s great, but if his offense is broken, and he’s the fourth option after Amon-Ra, Gibbs, and LaPorta, what then? But look, this is why you take Josh Allen in the first round. If he scores more points than any other player, and you’re pretty much never facing the second-highest scorer, he’s probably making up for an entire other player. This week, he was the top QB plus ten points. Teams Max would have lost to: Evan (Baker has 32), Oliver (Mahomes 32), Doak (Lamar 36), Spencer (Hurts 30). Only Coleman (Love 22) was beating Max this week without phenomenal QB play. This formula, Josh Allen covering your ass on bad weeks, gets you to the playoffs.
Evan pulled out just enough at the very end of the week to slip into the top five in scoring. The James Cook trade carried no risk, and Cook dropped 19 Week 1 without even feeling like a huge factor in that game. Egbuka haunts me. I should have traded with Cam to get ahead of Evan’s 3rd Round pick. I had it in mind. I just lost the thread at some point. Great pick. Egbuka’s already like the 25th best WR in the league, and I feel like he’s suddenly a real threat to lead Bucs’ WR in scoring. Even when Godwin comes back, he and Evans will take off about 25% of plays while Egbuka probably plays 90% of snaps. So now the soonest I can get Egbuka on my team is 2027. But listen, Evan’s team is not solid. Travis Hunter, reportedly a “full-time player on offense” as indicated in the pre-game news dump, played 60% of snaps. That’s obviously going up, but he’s not really a factor on defense. You’re not getting double. And that wasn’t Evan’s design anyway. He was hoping to get a star WR in his DB slot. For this gambit to pay off, Hunter can’t just be a 12 FP per game player. That’s just an elite DB. For Hunter to return on 2nd Round value, he needs to be like a 17 ppg player, which, that’s like a top-12 WR most weeks. That’s not happening, not the way they deployed him Sunday. I grant the possibility the Jags were sandbagging Hunter’s usage. 6 catches and zero first downs looks intentionally inefficient. They never needed to dip into the good plays to beat the Panthers, a defense Coen is very familiar with (and with dismantling, to boot). So I’m not optimistic; I refuse to be optimistic about the Jags, but I’m not bringing the hammer down on Evan for that pick just yet. Evan’s real problem is that his bench is basically a page one rewrite. None of those picks hit, and the soonest any of them might hit is Week 7.
Spencer pretty much dominated because they won with a shit-ton of bench points to spare, and all of their pre-draft bets proved correct. You don’t love see McLaurin and DeVonta combined for 6 FP, but you also kind of feel like they both got their worst games out of the way without costing you a win. Spencer’s four-deep at RB, five-deep at WR, has an elite QB, Kelce’s probably a top-10 TE, maybe the best kicker? Mike Tomlin referred to Chris Boswell as a “serial killer” following Boswell’s 60-yd game winner, which has got to be the coolest compliment a kicker has ever received? And solid IDPs. Loaded. Spencer is loaded.
Coleman is also loaded, I guess. Despite concerns about WR and QB leading him to trade TJ Watt for Jeudy, Lawrence, and $20 FAAB (which I consider a justifiable overpay), Hollywood Brown is now the Chiefs’ #1, so Coleman goes from two-deep at WR to four-deep practically overnight. And he didn’t need Watt. He left the draft with five IDPs, and three of the four he had left matched or exceeded Watt’s production Week 1. Lawrence sucks, but that was gravy anyway. I was going to drop him, and Coleman was like “might as well.” Again, if the Jags were sandbagging against the league’s worst defense, then Lawrence could become an everyweek starter once shit gets real.
Oliver shouldn’t have had a prayer to win this week, but he did a masterful job managing his roster from the moment we settled on a draft time. I wouldn’t have taken his side of our pre-draft trade, and if not for Mahomes falling to the seventh round, Oliver probably shouldn’t have. But Mahomes did fall, the Chiefs are committing to the deep ball, and Oliver nailed almost all of his picks. The Kittle injury is a tough blow, but this is the best time of the season to find a TE on the wire. AJ Brown got his worst game out of the way without costing Oliver a win, and the Kittle injury only raises the ceiling for Ricky Pearsall. The Hendrickson/Bonitto combo is lethal, and preseason legend Cam Little led all kickers in scoring this week. The main concern is RB, where it’s Alvin Kamara and then not a lot else. Dylan Sampson led the Browns in FP, but the Browns’ other rookie RB is significantly better. And there is nothing on the wire right now. Oliver’s ace in the hole is FAAB. As soon as a starting RB becomes available, he better go all-in because he’s rock solid everywhere else.
I am well aware that my team is basically just Lamar, Henry, and a bunch of high floors. I look at my WR room of Tee, T-Mac, Diggs, and Ridley, and I’m pretty grossed out and scared. I regret cornering myself into starting two Panthers, even if they are THE two Panthers. I really regret not having a spot for Bill in my lineup. But I can’t be greedy. I’ve got two studs, and that’s really all I can ask for. But I’d rather have three, and if I know me, I’m already hunting for that third guy.
