Upgraded backup QB (Teddy B), depth at WR (Egbuka & Tez in, TreyPalm out), all else pretty consistent on offense.
Upgraded EDGE (Reddick in, Tryon out), SS (Tykee full-time), and CB (Parrish wins nickel over Izien; Morrison is a legitimate backup outside corner, absolutely unheard of in the Bowles era).
The Grizzard Wizard takes over for Liam Coen, keeps the offensive scheme consistent. The cap wizard John Spytek was hired to GM the Raiders. Otherwise, lots of consistency. Coen took pass game assistant John Van Dam (never heard of him) to Jacksonville. Kinda sorta co-DC Kacy Rodgers left to do the same role in Detroit, but kinda sorta co-DC Larry Foote stays. USF legend Charlie Strong (jokes) replaces Rodgers as DL coach.
While the move from Coen to Grizz is an obvious concern, the Bucs retain so many players and coaches, like literally 90% of them, that they aren’t learning a new offense and don’t have to worry about it getting stale since they have a new playcaller. They get to pick up where they left off and add to it.
And there’s not anything I wish the Bucs had done differently. Some people question the Egbuka pick, but we’ve gotten a glimpse, and we’re about to see the full repertoire. He is going to be amazing. I will always wonder a little bit about Jahdae Barron, who I believe would have been the pick if, like, the Bengals had taken Egbuka (which they totally should have). I don’t love the Reddick signing, but I don’t see it as a red flag that he didn’t want to play for the Jets. The Jets fucking sucked. He spared himself almost a full year of punishment at age 30, and it wasn’t like a Lev Bell thing where he just completely peaced out. I think he’s going to be very fresh for a 31-yo, and I also think of him more as the dude that balled out for the Eagles in ’22 and ’23 than I do the guy who sat out for the Jets in ’24. He was coming off four consecutive double-digit sack seasons for three different teams. He’s a stud, and he’s kind of under the radar, right?
Three things jumped out to me regarding the initial 53: Bucs kept seven WRs (granted it’s technically six with Godwin out but avoiding IR so he can practice), eight OL (but can use practice squad elevations to make it nine on gamedays), and nine linebackers (eight is normal, but so is seven), which signals to me that those LBs are still competing for their spot on the roster. I think specifically Chris Braswell is being given extra time to prove he belongs on the roster.
Three undrafted rookies made the team! OL Ben Chukwuma, RB Josh Williams, and LB John Bullock. Chukwuma is from Nigeria, didn’t play football until 17, made the Georgia State team as a walk-on. Probably a fucking sick athlete because he grew up playing soccer and basketball, and now he’s 6’6” 310. Williams’s dad Jermaine Williams also made the Bucs as an undrafted free agent in 1997, then played five years in the league. Josh Williams walked on at LSU then earned a scholarship after his first year. His body type and play style give me Kyren Williams vibes. Bucs might really like him or might just be keeping him because Chaad and Tucker are hurt(ish). John Bullock is kind of your typical Nebraska linebacker. Decent speed, processing, tackling. All the UDFAs are 24, which means we should view them as legitimate players and not as projects.
The WR room is the best it’s been since… I don’t know because I’m not sure I’ve ever thought we had more than two good WRs at a time (Antonio Brown never played for us; that’s a shared hallucination). I’m not going to spend time on Evans, Egbuka, Godwin, McMillan, or Shepard here.
The obvious one is Tez Johnson. He’s tiny, which is why he was available in the seventh round (also because it was a double draft, but I digress). Tez Johnson has a beautiful game. He can catch, and he can run after the catch, which gives him a leg up on Ryan Miller (can catch but not run) and Kam Johnson (can run but not catch). If you want to get as excited as I am about Tez Johnson, start by imagining he is like if Khalil Shakir were the size of Tank Dell. But he’s arguably more athletic than either. The two limits to Tez Johnson’s game are his size (5’9”, 160) and his deep speed (4.51 40, which, like, is slow, and you imagine small people run faster than big people, but there’s also something to be said about not having weight to add momentum, so someone with more physics in their toolbox can probably enlighten us on that). The point is Tez Johnson is the third most exciting of our healthy WRs.
Wirfs and Godwin are out. Charlie Heck is starting in Wirfs’ place. Heck is 6’8” 310, and he’s a really good athlete at that size. He was drafted in the fourth round by the Texans and played his whole rookie deal for them before bouncing around Arizona and San Fran practice squads last year. He started a few games each year in Houston, including starting almost his entire second season. And that era of Texans football was a disaster. I’m not sure this guy got a fair shot. All I’m saying is he might not suck.
But let’s assume he sucks. The Bucs will have to hide him or help him. With injuries to the third and fourth WR, they were probably going to use more 12 (2-TE) and 21 (2-RB) personnel anyway. And you can use scheme to hide a player. Pre-snap motion can get a (non-lineman) blocker moving ahead of time, or they can use power and split-zone concepts where either a pulling guard runs outside Heck before the handoff or Heck himself gets moving laterally to add more force to his initial block. And obviously they can just run to the right side and let Graham, Mauch, and Goedeke do their thing. Goedeke just got a $20m/year deal, so… earn that shit.
WR3 is going to be pretty boring this week, reliable if unremarkable Sterling Shepard, and it remains to be seen whether the Bucs will continue to live in 11-personnel. They were 8th in the league last year at 71% of the time, and only three teams were above 72%. The Bucs other most used formations were (you guessed it) 12-personnel (16% of the time) and 21 (7% of the time), and 13 (3-TE; 3% of the time). There’s no reason for the Bucs to get cute and put Tez Johnson on film if they don’t have to. Let the league forget about him, and unleash that 10-personnel (4-WR) when Godwin comes back—Bucs ran only five plays in that formation last season. They want Otton on the field every snap. He’s under the radar nationally, but Bucs fans know he’s a complete TE. What holds him back in fantasy is his average speed and lack of opportunity… except for when the Bucs were thin at WR and suddenly Otton was catching ten passes per game. I don’t want us to do that against the Falcons because Otton lines up (generally) across from their best two defenders, Kaden Elliss and Jessie Bates.
The Falcons have four proven players on defense: Elliss (QB of the D, tackle monster, occasionally super-effective pass-rusher, essentially who we thought Devin White would be), Bates (centerfield slugger getting a handful of interceptions and 100+ tackles every year), AJ Terrell (erstwhile all-pro who’s kind of plateaued as the 20th best CB in the league), and Leonard Floyd (pass-rush mercenary, collecting $10m checks from a different team each year and earning it).
The Falcons’ other players have potential. The weakest part of the defense should be the interior of the line, followed by the rookie DBs (safety Xavier Watts—probably a stud in the Winfield mold—and nickel Billy Bowman—no idea). Week 1 is a great time to force teams to tackle. First, they can’t practice it much, and second, you should always make your opponent prove they can actually hit the fastball before wasting your other pitches. The Falcons’ best attribute is speed, and the Bucs’ best attribute is power. To me, that means pound the rock and neutralize speed with misdirection.
This game will come down to whether the Buc’s defense can keep us in the lead. Last year the Bucs allowed the Falcons to gain 950 yards in two games. That’s 70 more yards per game than the worst defense allowed last year and 140 yards more than the league average. Kirk Cousins owns the Bucs. It’s literally a meme. This will be Michael Penix’s first game against Bowles’ defense or even anything like it. Penix started three games last year, against the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers, who blitzed more than league average but never brought the pure chaos you’ll get from Bowles. Penix was born and raised in Tampa, so he could be looking at Bowles’ defense like “you merely adopted the chaos; I was born in it.” However, my guess is that Penix will be in hell.
The Falcons best chance to win is to force the Bucs into drop-back passing situations, which means they have to be able to get a lead and stop the run. How can they get a lead against our defense? By starting Kirk Cousins. Short of that, they have to be able to take advantage of the triangle between SirVocea Dennis, Jacob Parrish, and Tykee Smith, all good players but none with more than one year of NFL experience. Hmm, who lines up and runs routes in the vicinity of the inside linebacker, nickel, and strong safety…? Yes, the prince that was promised, Kyle Pitts. The Falcons’ key to victory is Kyle. Pitts. (Okay, it’s using Drake London in the slot and getting Bijan out in the route, but one can dream.)
The Falcons have two glaring weaknesses on offense: line and WR. They’re replacing their starting center (with a decent long-term plan) and are forced into starting a backup RT all year. Darnell Mooney missed all of training camp and preseason. He just started practicing this week. He’s probably good to go, but he’s their deep threat, and it takes a lot of practice to time that out. Just remember the Jameis-DeSean days. I wonder if any QB-WR tandem misconnected on more open deep balls. What the Mooney injury revealed is that the Falcons have no plan if one of their best three receivers gets hurt. One sleeper cell storyline is that Kyle Pitts continues to cross-train at TE and WR, while backup TE Charlie Woerner enters year two in the system, a system which doesn’t feature the TE as a pass-catcher. Falcons coaches are adamant that this is the year Kyle Pitts becomes a thing again. There are also rumors that if he’s not unlocked or if the team’s record is not good, Pitts will be moved at the trade deadline.
Fantasy prediction:
Bucs score four TDs, one each for Evans, Egbuka, Bucky, and Chaad. Lavonte and Reddick each get a sack, Zyon McCollum gets a pick. Penix fumbles once (Reddick) but a Falcons’ lineman jumps on it. Falcons score two TDs, with Penix and Allgeier each running one in and Bijan owners completely melting down. Leonard Floyd gets a sack, Kaden Elliss forces Baker to fumble on a scramble, but otherwise clean sheet for the Bucs offense. Elliss and Tykee lead their teams in tackles.
The Second Spitter – I don’t really care about the details of the Jalen Carter ejection, but as someone who had Carter on my draft board, I was glad I picked someone else. The league’s crackdown on unsportsmanlike conduct means that if you have a hothead or an asshole on your fantasy team, he’s at increased risk of getting ejected. Luckily Mike Evans won’t play against Marshon Lattimore this regular season. Who are some guys I’m worried about getting ejected? One our teams right now, George Pickens, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and anyone defending Travis Kelce 1:1 for significant time.
Testing the Who Cares Hypothesis – feels like I’m going into the melee without a kicker. I am one player over the limit, so I have to drop two players to add a kicker. I could have avoided this by drafting a kicker, but I forgot! The two players I would drop are obvious, but I think their Week 1 production will boost their value. A kicker would likely add points to my lineup, but there’s no trade value, and there’s not a lot of opportunity cost in waiting. There are always 20 starting kickers in free agency. Trevor Lawrence could easily score 40 against the Panthers. Ollie Gordon could operate as the lead back for the Dolphins, leap-frog Jaylen Wright for good, and be what Jordan Mason was in San Fr—okay, he’s droppable. I see it now. But Trevor? Playing in the scheme that Baker a top-5 QB? The arm talent, the rushing ability, the gorgeous golden flow, throwing to BTJ and Hunter… who are pretty green, getting a whole new offense, with a bad offensive line and perhaps the worst coaching staff in the league… fine, FINE. I care now, I actually care. But I’m waiting until Sunday morning, you savages.
FAAB-onomics – there’s no interest rate with FAAB, no real benefit to indiscriminate savings, and it definitely doesn’t roll over. This is spending money, and the money move is to think of it in chunks. NFL teams plan out their own salary cap this way. Typically a handful of superstars earn one third, the rest of the starters earn a third, and the other 30-ish players earn a third. Let’s look at the Bucs:
Evans, Baker, and Vea each make about 8% of the cap. (24%)
Dean, Reddick, Godwin, Wirfs, Winfield, and Lavonte each make about 4% of the cap. (24%)
~50% of the cap goes to those nine players, easily the most important players on the team. Next year Goedeke and McCollum join that group, while Dean and Reddick likely leave (maybe not with Evans getting cheaper and Lavonte getting cheaper or retiring, but Baker is probably getting more expensive, sooo…)
Kancey, Otton, Chaad, Goedeke, Gaines, McLaughlin, McCollum, Egbuka, Barton, Dixon, and Logan Hall each make about 1% of the cap (11%). Notice this group is awesome players on rookie deals, kicker, punter, and a veteran role player.
The other 39% of the cap goes to 33 players each making between 0.3% and 0.8% of the cap.
SO how this relates to FAAB budget: two big bags of money for star-potential players, each bag consisting of about a quarter of your budget. Ten little bags for good players you expect a little competition for—bench size is factored in here. If we had bigger benches, I’d probably consolidate this bucket for five or six guys I’d be willing to hold for a month or more, but with only five bench spots, I’m using smaller chunks so I don’t feel like I wasted as much when I’m forced to drop them. And finally you save 10% (maximum) for the playoffs so that if you need something specific, your opponent probably can’t outbid you for it.
Could you save more and create a playoff advantage? Hell yeah, brother. If you’re a freight train and you’re just flattening everyone in your path, don’t spend shit unless it’s for a blue chip.
Can you justify spending half of your FAAB on one player after Week 1? YES. People did this with Puka and were rewarded. So if someone gets 15 targets in Week 1, I’m not suggesting you blow your whole budget, but I am suggesting someone will. Like specifically at WR, we have multiple teams who need it bad. The demand is clear. The supply is very unclear. The only thing clear is that the likelihood of seeing a long-term, high-upside starter in free agency is higher in the first month of the season, and that probability decreases over time. It doesn’t go away, though. There’s always some chance a league-winner emerges from nowhere any given week.
No matter what you think of what I’m saying, remember this: you don’t pay Michael Johnson like a star pass-rusher just because he’s the best one available. You don’t pay Nick Foles $20m so that the locker room respects him. No. Have some integrity. If you’re flush at the end of the year, fine, whatever. Probably means you Scrooged it early on, but go nuts. Pay players what they are worth. BUT there’s no such thing as overpaying for a superstar. Anyone arguing the Packers shouldn’t give up two 1sts for a HOF pass-rusher are either arguing in bad faith or lacking in executive function.
All right, now that I’ve compromised what might have been my only advantage, I’m out. Have a good melee week.
