Great draft, everyone. We all got to be there. We all felt prepared. We only had one auto-pick disaster. Nobody needed to reclaim a pick (other than the auto-pick disaster). Travis Hunter got drafted (appropriately) early, so we get to key in on that this season. Rookies in general went early, not always appropriately. Kaleb Johnson and the world record holder for least time taken to become an STA (before even signing his rookie deal!) both got drafted as “early keepers” (good luck with that), and as of Tuesday afternoon, we have 14 rookie RBs on rosters, including Kennedy taking the top two and Oliver taking arguably the bottom three. We’ve got eight rookie WRs (two apiece for Kennedy and Coleman), three rookie TEs, two rookie DLs, two rookie DBs (including Hunter in that count because that’s where Evan will play him), and one rookie QB. 30 rookies out of 216 roster spots feels extreme, but it is the exact same number as last season. I won’t get into the overall hit rate because the number looks bad, but I want to highlight the upside: Nabers in the 3rd (kept), Worthy in the 4th (kept), Bowers and Daniels in the 5th (kept), BTJ and Ladd in the 8th (kept), Bucky in the 13th (kept), Nix in the 15th (dropped but eventually added, traded, kept). Resist the urge to count to eight and divide by 30, and instead get excited about getting a huge hit on a completely unproven player who you got at value. If I had to pick those magic eight rookies to become fantasy gold, I’m going Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, T-Mac, Egbuka, Golden, Warren, and Ward. That’s probably chalk, but there were three rookies not mentioned who were drafted near the 3-4 turn.
The other charming development was the aggressiveness of the pre-draft process. Good looking trades by all parties involved. Some people lost value, but I think everyone made moves that increased their comfort and confidence in their teams.
Brian
EK Jayden Daniels
MK Brian Thomas
LK Tyrone Tracy
1 (1). Ja’Marr Chase
2 (24). TreVeyon Henderson
3 (25). Marvin Harrison
4 (42). Isiah Pacheco
5 (49). Matthew Golden
6 (72). Tucker Kraft
7 (73). Chris Godwin
8 (96). Jared Verse
9 (97). Brian Branch
10 (120). Foye Oluokun
11 (121). Braelon Allen
12 (144). Jamien Sherwood
13 (145). Wil Lutz
14 (168). Justin Fields (dropped)
FA: Ja(y)lens Wright & McMillan, Woody Marks
Obvious Strengths: QB, WR, IDP
Obvious Weakness: RB
Brian’s got some choices to make with this lineup. I would start Henderson out of the gate because he’s the best talent, but you’ve got Pacheco in the best offense and Tracy the most likely to lead the lot in touches. I think Pacheco @LAC and Tracy @WSH are tougher matchups. The Raiders literally don’t have an interior defensive line. But if you did want to start an RB over the rookie Golden, first, don’t, but second, the Chargers will be worse against the run than the ‘Ders to start the year.
Evaluation: Brian cleaned up. The RB room isn’t great, but there is upside with three starters and Braelon becoming more of a 50-50 in that Jets backfield. And those three starters have serious speed, which makes volume less important. Obviously Daniels and the WR trio of Chase-BTJ-Marv is the jeweled crown, but IDP can’t be overlooked. Jared Verse arrived late last year, Branch was DB1, Sherwood led the league in tackles last year and Oluokun led the league in 2021 and ’22, finished 4ht in ’23, then fell way off in a horrible situation last year; I like him to bounce back into the top ten for sure. So that’s sick. And kickers are pure entropy, but you like Lutz kicking in the altitude attached to at least a top-half offense that isn’t as aggressive going for it thanks to an old school head coach.
Corey
EK1 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba
EK2 - Brock Bowers
MK – Buck Irving
1 (2). Bijan Robinson
2 (23). Mike Evans
3 (26). Garrett Wilson
4 (47). CJ Stroud
5 (50). STA-MIA
6 (64). Micah Parsons
7 (74). Kyle Pitts
7 (81). Chase McLuaghlin
8 (95). Cam Ward
9 (98). Nick Bolton
10 (119). Malaki Starks
11 (122). Brandon Aiyuk
12 (143). Patrick Queen
13 (146). Nick Chubb
14 (167). Aaron Rodgers
Obvious Strengths: RB, WR, TE
Obvious Weaknesses: QB, IDP
Corey gave up a year of Bucky’s keeper eligibility for an extra keeper slot this year, and it makes a huge difference when you look at the Week 1 lineup. Without that trade, he wouldn’t have had the flexibility to trade a 4th for a 6th and 7th. I would rather have the 4th, especially when you consider the players taken at those picks. Kennedy got Mark Andrews, which wouldn’t have helped Corey, but Odunze, Pacheco, DeVonta, Swift, and others went after Andrews. Corey got Micah Parsons and Chase McLaughlin. Imagine trying to trade Parsons and McLaughlin for DeVonta Smith right now.
Evaluation: While I stand by QB being a weakness right now, I’m open to changing my mind after Week 1. I usually advise picking a starter and sticking with him for a while, but in this case, I might try to play the matchups.
Stroud - @LAR, v.TB, @JAX, v.TEN, @BAL, bye
Ward - @DEN, v.LAR, v.IND, @HOU, @ARI, @LV
Rodgers - @NYJ, v.SEA, @NE, v.MIN, bye
Unless you plan to play Rodgers in that revenge game against the Jets, I think he’s a preseason cut candidate. You just can’t make a compelling case to start him any other week, and by the time the bye comes, you’re gonna want that roster spot for something else.
Corey has an empty roster spot after sliding Aiyuk onto IR, but that’s probably going to be a Parsons replacement for at least a couple weeks.
Corey’s team is good at the right positions, but I think he needs to get deeper the first couple weeks, make one big FAAB push on a surprise player, and then he’s set. Nick Chubb could start for the Texans for the whole year. We have no information on Joe Mixon’s foot. Or Dameon Pierce could show more juice and steal the job if Chubb has lost a step for good. I’m not worried about Aiyuk’s injury, but that’s still just four-deep at WR when he comes back. I’m not into this IDP group outside of Bolton, but I feel like Parsons will play soon, and Corey can easily upgrade Queen and Starks after Week 1 without spending any FAAB.
Cam
EK – Xavier Worthy
MK – Ladd McConkey
LK – Bo Nix
1 (3). Saquon Barkley
1 (12). Amon-Ra St. Brown
2 (22). Drake London
3 (27). Ken Walker
5 (51). Tyler Warren
5 (55). Joe Mixon
5 (60). Zaire Franklin
6 (70). Fred Warner
7 (75). Chris Olave
7 (77). Aidan Hutchinson
9 (99). Brandon Aubrey
10 (114). Cam Bynum
10 (118). Caleb Williams
11 (123). Luther Burden
12 (142). Evan Engram
13 (147). Tyjae Spears
Obvious Strength: WR, K, TE, IDP
Obvious Weakness: QB, RB
Evaluation: For Week 1, QB and RB are not weak at all, but you worry about uncertainty and ups and downs with Nix and Caleb in their second season. And RB is thin. Saquon is elite, but Walker has injury concerns and is now in a full-blown timeshare. Cam is stacked at WR, so he really only needs one RB, but that’s a lot to put on Saquon coming off a high-usage season. There is too much Colt action for me, but I can see the offense crapping out and the defense playing 80 snaps, which would mean huge numbers for Zaire and Bynum as the primary tacklers. Hutch and Warner are elite at their positions.
If this were my team, I would be worried about body types, injury history, overuse, and regression. But the talent and opportunity are all the way there. Cameron sat back and raked in value throughout the draft, but it’s a lot of players who maxed out last season. Hard to imagine upward trajectory for most of them, but a plateau would still rule.
Evan
EK1 – James Cook
EK2 – David Njoku
LK – Baker Mayfield
1 (4). Justin Jefferson
2 (21). Travis Hunter
3 (28). Emeka Egbuka
4 (45). Aaron Jones
5 (52). David Montgomery
6 (64). Rashee Rice
7 (76). Abdul Carter
8 (93). Zack Baun
9 (100). Cooper Kupp
10 (117). Ray Davis
11 (124). Tank Bigsby
12 (141). Bayshul Tuten
13 (148). Ernie Jones
14 (165). Evan McPherson
Obvious Strengths: QB, WR, IDP
Obvious Weakness: RB
Evan traded his mid keeper slot to Sean for Cook and the early slot to keep him, so it was an obvious move for Evan.
Evaluation: The Cook trade probably provided a false sense of security, with Evan waiting until Round 4/5 to take Jones and Montgomery, timeshare backs getting up there in age. He knows it’s weak because he also spent three consecutive picks toward the end on handcuff Ray Davis and Jags lottery picks Bigsby and Tuten. It’s not a screaming weakness, but when you consider Jones paired with Jefferson, you lose upside since Minnesota isn’t likely to be a high-volume offense. But what Evan lacks on paper, he makes up in intangibles. These are gamers. They convert their high-leverage opportunities. But I fear you are at the mercy of matchups, specifically with the RBs. However, there is a great chance that Rashee and Kupp can play to the level of Jones and Montgomery and give you flexibility. And the IDPs are what you would expect from Evan: massive talent at DL and DB, and each LB is the QB of his defense. And I do see the Baker-Egbuka stack bearing major fruit until Godwin comes back, and even then, Egbuka probably stays a high-level flex.
Doak
EK – Tee Higgins
MK – Sam LaPorta
LK1 – Chuba Hubbard
LK2 - Jerry Jeudy
LK3 – Josh Downs
1 (5). Derrick Henry
1 (7). Lamar Jackson
3 (29). Tetairoa McMillan (auto-pick)
4 (44). D’Andre Swift
4 (46). Calvin Ridley
4 (48). Stefon Diggs
5 (53). Wild Bill Croskey
5 (57). Roquan Smith
9 (101). Derwin James
11 (125). Lavonte David
12 (140). Jonathan Greenard
13 (149). Ollie Gordon
14 (164). Trevor Lawrence
Obvious Strengths: QB, RB, WR, TE, IDP
Obvious Weakness: K
I had too many picks coming in, so I moved a 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 8th to get the extra 1st to stack Henry and Lamar and snag an extra late keeper slot for Jeudy, then I moved my 10th for another late slot for Downs.
Evaluation: Kind of ugly returns for a loaded war chest. I should have been more prepared for that 3rd Round pick. While I love me some T-Mac and stand by a Mike Evans comparison (though it’s probably more Drake London), I am not happy that I have two Panthers in my starting lineup. I could definitely slide Ridley, Diggs, or Jeudy in there to mitigate it, but I low-key believe Carolina can condense the offense to focus on getting Chuba and T-Mac the bulk of the fantasy points. Still, it’s the Panthers. At the end of the day, it’s small potatoes who starts for me at WR and my second flex. I expect to leave the best scorer on the bench often, but I also expect to get double digits from whoever is in the lineup. My worst-case scenario is bad luck, getting hit with explosives and losing to teams dropping 180 when they play me. But in that case, I trade players for picks again and keep this stacked draft strategy rolling. My Week 1 lineup definitely isn’t set. Need a kicker, probably need to drop Gordon and Lawrence to do it, and I want to get Diggs into the lineup. Obviously I can break up my Panthers, but I’m concerned about Swift getting stuffed over and over by that Vikings front. But the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle so they can share the backfield work, meaning Chuba isn’t the top-10 guy he was last year.
I will admit I could have done better at IDP. The Roquan pick was a little knee-jerk. I tend to value DLs and DBs over LBs, and Hutchinson was the clear #1 IDP available when I made the Roquan pick. I am also going to be comparing Derwin and Budda throughout the year because Budda’s role last year led to just insane production, and he might get to do it again.
Spencer
EK – Malik Nabers
MK – Khalil Shakir
1 (6). Christian McCaffrey
2 (14). De’Von Achane
2 (19). Jalen Hurts
3 (30). Terry McLaurin
4 (43). DeVonta Smith
5 (54). Travis Kelce
6 (67). Zach Charbonnet
7 (78). Jakobi Meyers
8 (91). Travis Etienne
8 (94). Michael Pittman
9 (102). Brian Robinson
10 (115). Najee Harris
10 (116). Rhamondre Stevenson
11 (126). Danielle Hunter
12 (139). Brian Burns
13 (150). Terell Bernard
14 (158). Nick Cross
14 (143). Chris Boswell
Obvious Strengths: QB, WR, DL
Obvious Weakness: DB
Spencer traded their late keeper slot for an extra 10th. Got the extra 2nd moving Josh Allen at the deadline last year. Got the extra 8th for Austin Ekeler midseason.
Evaluation: CMC was a bold pick at 6, and the pairing with Achane gives you a pretty fragile RB room. Leaning into has-beens for depth doesn’t help. You’re really hoping your top guys stay healthy, and then you need either Etienne or Charbonnet to command their backfields. Both are good players who have a shot, but they are more talented than the guys they are competing with.
I’m a huge fan of the Hurts-DeVonta stack, especially with DeVonta as your third WR. The Week 1 lineup is rock solid, but the depth is low-ceiling across the board barring significant surprises.
Oliver
EK – George Kittle
MK – Courtland Sutton
2 (20). AJ Brown
3 (31). Alvin Kamara
3 (35). DK Metcalf
6 (66). Ricky Pearsall
6 (68). Nik Bonitto
7 (79). Patrick Mahomes
8 (90). Cam Skattebo
8 (92). Jaydon Blue
9 (103). Trey Benson
11 (126). Jerome Ford
12 (138). Trey Hendrickson
13 (151). JJ McCarthy
14 (157). Dylan Sampson
14 (162). Christian Kirk
14 (166). Josh Metellus
Obvious Strengths: QB, WR, TE
Obvious Weaknesses: RB, IDP
Oliver went all in at the deadline last year and finished last among playoff teams. He traded away this year’s 2nd before last season even started. He also traded away his 4th, 5th, and 10th at the deadline, getting back some players he couldn’t keep and some 14th-round picks. Then he shuffled the deck by moving his 1st and late keeper for my 2nd, Sean’s 3rd, and my 6th and 8th. All told, he essentially came into the draft down a 1st in exchange for a playoff run. Not terrible.
Evaluation: The Mahomes pick saved Oliver from a guaranteed garbage season. There were plenty of solid QBs drafted after Mahomes, but I think he was the last one with true QB1 upside. But this is the kind of roster you get without a first-round pick. Oliver essentially gave up Gibbs or Jeanty for AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Nik Bonitto, and (being nice) Cam Skattebo. I think I’d prefer Jeanty, but then Christian Kirk is your best flex, or you’re starting one of the Browns RBs.
The RB room is bad, but there’s hope. Kamara should be a bell-cow, granted on the league’s worst offense. It’s kind of like Lev Bell with the Jets. It’s going to be amazing volume but low, low TD upside. But I think you’ve got TE1 in Kittle, and you have massive TD upside with Mahomes, AJB, Sutton, and Metcalf. The Browns RB job should go to either Ford or Sampson, and that should be a solid enough flex option, but sadly there is a third competitor that could make them both backups. Regardless of how all that shakes out, Oliver has a thin team and is best off blowing FAAB early in the year to get this plane off the ground.
Shelby
MK – Antoine Winfield
LK1 – Chase Brown
LK2 – Jaylen Warren
1 (8). Jah’Myr Gibbs
2 (17). Joe Burrow
3 (32). RJ Harvey
4 (41). Rome Odunze
5 (56). Tony Pollard
6 (65). TJ Hockenson
6 (71). Deebo Samuel
7 (80). TJ Edwards
8 (88). Will Anderson
9 (104). Keon Coleman
10 (113). Jayden Reed
11 (128). Cameron Dicker
12 (137). Justin Herbert
13 (132). Jalon Walker
Shelby traded her early keeper slot for Corey’s late slot and his 6th. That’s effectively DJ Moore for Jaylen Warren and TJ Hockenson, but it opened Shelby up to take Odunze, who has a fair shot to score more FP than Moore this year. It’s possible she upgraded WR, secured a high-end TE, and added a consistent flex option.
Obvious Strengths: QB, RB, K, IDP
Obvious Weakness: WR
Evaluation: I would have taken Jeanty over Gibbs, but ultimately they are equal value. I’m not sure, but I’d probably have taken Lamb over either, planned to spend a 2nd on RB, and gone after Dak in the 4th/5th. That said, I think Shelby played this right. RB dried up before her 2nd pick, Burrow is a better option than Dak. But I have bones to pick later on. RJ Harvey and Rome Odunze are great. I’m convinced they’ll be worth starting every week. I also would have taken James Conner over Harvey and Calvin Ridley over Odunze, but I also see the value in going for youth with those early keeper picks. You definitely wouldn’t have gotten Harvey or Odunze without spending those exact picks on them, so it’s a win.
Shelby admitted she saw the board wrong and played it as if she had one more WR than she did, but Odunze and Deebo are a quality 1-2, Keon and Reed are upside plays, and a free agent WR should emerge after a week or two. I don’t like rookie edge rushers for fantasy, but I do like the plan to start insane athlete Jalon Walker in Week 1 against Charlie Heck. While I like the RB room of Gibbs, Brown, Pollard, and Harvey, there is limited TD upside. However, I can see TJ Hockenson leading TEs in TDs this season. I wouldn’t bet on it, but he’s on a short list, maybe seven TEs long.
Anderson is a good bet to lead the league in sacks, as I still think offensive lines will shift to prioritize Hunter. Winfield is a perennial DB1 candidate, and TJ Edwards was a top-10 LB two of the last three years, for two different teams.
Kennedy
EK – Zay Flowers
MK – Myles Garrett
LK – Michael Penix
1 (9). Ashton Jeanty
2 (15). Omarion Hampton
3 (33). James Conner
4 (40). Mark Andrews
8 (88). Jayden Higgins
9 (105). Budda Baker
10 (112). Bobby Spillane
11 (129). Bobby Wagner
12 (136). Kyler Murray
13 (153). Brock Purdy
14 (160). Rachaad White
14 (161). Tank Dell
FA: Tyler Loop, Mason Taylor, Dont’e Thornton
Obvious Strengths: RB, TE, IDP
Kennedy traded his 4th and 5th picks for a playoff run, then he traded his 6th and 7th to get the 4th back, citing a preference to get one good player rather than two fine players. He ended up spending it on Mark Andrews, who he could have kept over Zay Flowers, especially when the top three TEs and two other great TEs were kept. Would have opened up his 4th pick for Flowers or one of the more traditional #1 WRs still available.
Evaluation: I approve moving back up to the 4th in exchange for the 6th and 7th. You effectively acquire Andrews for Parsons and McLaughlin, though you more likely would have taken Hockenson or Pitts in the 6th and Addison in the 7th, but that’s pretty much the only combo that looks better on paper than Andrews, and there were obviously no guarantees.
As for the lineup, I think the multi-QB approach was necessary, especially because they were dirt cheap. I have bones to pick with the specific QBs. Given you had Hampton, I might have gone Herbert because I think that’s a top-ten offense and Herbert has the size/speed to run/sneak more, especially if the Chargers have o-line concerns with Slater out for the year. I’d also have gone Goff over any of them since the Lions have the best weapons.
But none of it matters if you get what you expect from Jeanty, Hampton, and Conner, any of whom could lead the league in TDs, first downs, etc., and all of whom are safe bets to score double-digit TDs and dominate RB touches for their teams. With Jeanty, there’s no question. You have to be mindful that Najee Harris and Trey Benson are talented players, but I see no chance of them splitting work, much less winning their team’s starting role. Rachaad White is hurt, but he hopefully won’t be out for more than a couple weeks, and when he’s in, he’s the Bucs’ preferred short-distance back and is a three-down back. The Bucs like to share the load at all positions and play the long game, so Chaad is as good a second RB as your David Montgomery, and Kennedy got him for free.
Hate, hate, hate the WR room. Don’t understand the Jayden Higgins pick, not in the 8th Round, but since you were cornered into taking your second WR in the 8th Round, you didn’t have any premium options, so you might as well take a rookie who’s slated to start in an improving offense. You will be competing with Oliver and Shelby for the emergent free agent WR after Week 1. I’m also intrigued by the Dont’e Thornton add. He’s going to get plenty of opportunities on deep balls and red zone targets. He could be the DK Metcalf in that offense, likely under 1K yards but flirting with 10 TDs. A better flier than Higgins for that second WR spot in Week 1. I think you will look back and wonder why you took Higgins over Pittman, Kupp, Keenan, Reed, and Aiyuk, though. Nico and Kirk will be the top scorers for the Texans, and the next best fantasy options will probably be Chubb and Pierce.
Love the IDPs, love me some Bobby Time, and I think you were right to go Spillane over Okereke. Budda Baker in the same round as Branch, Derwin, and Hamilton is appropriate and possibly even the winner.
I am sad I didn’t draft Tyler Loop in the last round.
Max
EK – Josh Jacobs
MK – Jameson Williams
LK – Nick Bosa
1 (10). Josh Allen
2 (14). Nico Collins
3 (34). Kaleb Johnson
4 (39). Davante Adams
5 (58). JK Dobbins
6 (63). Dalton Kincaid
7 (82). Jordan Mason
8 (87). Josh Hines-Allen
9 (106). Rashid Shaheed
10 (111). Jessie Bates
11 (130). Tyler Bass
12 (135). Rashod Bateman
13 (154). Alex Highsmith
14 (159). Jared Goff
Obvious Strengths: WR, IDP
Obvious Weakness: RB, TE
Evaluation: I agree with every pick except for Kaleb Johnson, who is an exceptional player in a relatively bad situation. He is the best RB in the backfield, but he’s probably a year away from playing on passing downs. And he’s more of a tackle-breaker than a breakaway runner. I would have liked this pick in the mid-keeper rounds. Max made the mistake of grabbing his RB at the end of a run. I’d also argue that Swift would have been the best RB at the end of the run. And I think drafting Kaleb one pick ahead of Metcalf is insanity because I believe in picking a team’s best player first. Max might have “needed” RB, but the math I’m doing is: I can start four WRs and Jacobs, I don’t want to be without a starting RB if Jacobs goes down, but I don’t think Kaleb Johnson is filling that void anyway. As it stands, you’ve got one sure thing RB and three hypotheticals.
I like Dalton Kincaid for the week Khalil Shakir is out, and that’s it. Hockenson or Pitts would have my pick there, but I do believe Shakir will be out Week 1 as the Bills play the long game and get an opportunity to play a little left-handed without their safety valve.
Max is going all-out chasing sacks, and while I didn’t take that tack in the draft, I do think it’s the ceiling play on a weekly basis.
Sean
MK1 – Puka Nacua
MK2 – Trey McBride
LK – Andrew Van Ginkel
1 (11). Jonathan Taylor
4 (38). George Pickens
5 (59). Dak Prescott
6 (62). Jaylen Waddle
7 (83). Austin Ekeler
8 (86). Jauan Jennings
9 (107). Keenan Allen
10 (110). Javonte Williams
11 (131). Marvin Mims
12 (134). Drake Maye
13 (155). Darnell Mooney (cut)
FA: Ka’imi Fairbairn, Alex Singleton, Jaquan Brisker, Blake Cashman
Obvious Strength: TE
Obvious Weakness: IDP
Sean traded early keeper James Cook for a second mid keeper slot, using the pair on Puka and McBride. He entered the draft without a 2nd or 3rd after last year’s playoff chase.
Evaluation: Pretty middle-of-the-road draft for Sean, which is to be expected without 2nd or 3rd. Taylor was the necessary pick at 11, and I think Dak was the necessary pick in the 5th, which justifies the Pickens pick in the 4th. Waddle should exceed ADP, Ekeler is the de facto starter for the ‘Ders, Javonte is (imo) the unquestioned starter in Dallas, Jauan might be WR1 in SF, Keenan will bounce back thanks to 100+ targets from Herbert, and Marvin Mims should flirt with 100 targets of his own in what should be a breakout season. The issue is that these aren’t high-end outcomes relative to the players Sean couldn’t have early on. Pickens and Waddle each max out at like 10th in WR scoring, but that’s dream scenario for both, concurrently, and that’s not happening.
Sean didn’t draft any IDPs or kicker and the guys he picked up are not interesting. He’s starting the year in the back of the pack, and he’s probably going to be forced to make a tough cut when he spends big FAAB on a Week 1 breakout.
Coleman
EK – TJ Watt
MK – Kyren Williams
LK – Sam Darnold
2 (13). CeeDee Lamb
2 (18). Breece Hall
3 (36). DJ Moore
4 (37). STA-CLE
(not to be confused with Big Perv)
6 (61). Maxx Crosby
7 (84). Jordan Addison
8 (85). Colston Loveland
9 (108). Kyle Hamilton
10 (109). Kaden Ellis
11 (132). Bobby Okereke
12 (133). Jake Bates
13 (156). Tre Harris
FA: Kyle Williams, Jordan Love
Coleman got Oliver’s 2nd a full year ago by swapping Olave and Mixon for mid-keeper Kyren. He later moved Addison, his 1st, and his 5th for Mike Evans and De’Von Achane. He won it all, so I’d say it worked.
Obvious Strength: IDP
Obvious Weakness: QB
Evaluation: Really not sure how Coleman left this draft with an extra IDP when he doesn’t have a second flex. Like, he can’t start the Browns RB or either of those rookie WRs in Week 1. They’ll barely play, so it’s like a TD or bust play. It’s Adam Thielen time. (Alternatively, DeAndre Hopkins or Tyler Lockett.) Blame it on family dinner. The STA pick is unconscionable. There was too much quality still on the board: Pacheco, Swift, and Pollard at RB; Matthew Golden at WR if you were just fiending for a high-ceiling rookie—god, especially since you picked up Love and probably have to start him over Darnold (vs.SF Week 1).
But look, Coleman smashed IDP, getting top-10 guys for all four slots, and he has a bench full of easy cuts after we get better intel on the free agents following Week 1. So it’s probably a melee loss to start the year, and I don’t have faith in Breece for the value where you picked him (would have gone Hurts, no question, or WR if you were coming in committed to late-round QB).
But Lamb falling to 13 overall is huge. It was better than best-case scenario, and if Coleman’s team stinks it up, Lamb is getting you a future 2nd, easy.
QB
1. Doak – Lamar
2. Max – Allen, Goff
3. Brian – Daniels, Fields
4. Shelby – Burrow, Herbert
5. Spe – Hurts
6. Oliver- Mahomes
7. Evan – Baker
8. Sean – Dak, Maye
9. Cam – Nix, Caleb
10. Kennedy – Kyler, Penix, Purdy
11. Corey – Stroud, Ward, Rodgers
12. Coleman – Love, Darnold
RB
1. Kennedy – Jeanty, Hampton, Conner
2. Shelby – Gibbs, Brown, Pollard, Harvey, Warren
3. Corey – Bijan, Bucky, Chubb
4. Doak – Henry, Swift, Chuba, Bill, Ollie
5. Spe – CMC, Achane, Etienne, Charb, B.Robinson, Najee, Rhamondre
6. Cam – Saquon, Walker, Mixon
7. Max – Jacobs, Dobbins, Kaleb, Mason
8. Brian – Tracy, Henderson, Pacheco, Braelon, Wright
9. Evan – Cook, Jones, Montgomery, Davis, Bigsby, Tuten
10. Coleman – Kyren, Breece, STA
11. Sean – Taylor, Ekeler, Javonte
12. Oliver – Kamara, Sampson, Ford, Skattebo, Benson, Blue
WR
1. Brian – Chase, BTJ, Marv, Golden, Godwin, J.McMillan
2. Max – Nico, Adams, Jameson, Shaheed, Bateman
3. Cam – SunGod, London, Ladd, Worthy, Olave, Burden
4. Corey – Evans, JSN, G.Wilson, STA, Aiyuk
5. Sean – Puka, Pickens, Waddle, Keenan, Jauan, Mims
6. Oliver – AJB, Sutton, Metcalf, Pearsall, Kirk
7. Spe – Nabers, McLaurin, DeVonta, Shakir, Meyers, Pittman
8. Evan – Jefferson, Egbuka, Rashee, Kupp
9. Doak – Tee, T-Mac, Ridley, Diggs, Jeudy, Downs
10. Coleman – Lamb, DJ, Addison, Tre Harris, Kyle Willaims
11. Shelby – Odunze, Deebo, Keon, J.Reed, Dell
12. Kennedy – Flowers, J.Higgins, Thornton
TE
1. Oliver- Kittle
2. Corey – Bowers, Pitts
3. Sean – McBride
4. Cam – Warren, Engram
5. Shelby – Hockenson
6. Doak – LaPorta
7. Kennedy – Andrews
8. Spe – Kelce
9. Evan – Njoku
10. Coleman – Loveland
11. Brian – Kraft
12. Max - Kincaid
K
1. Cam – Aubrey
2. Shelby – Dicker
3. Coleman – Bates
4. Corey – McLaughlin
5. Sean – Ka’imi
6. Spe – Boswell
7. Kennedy – Loop
8. Brian – Lutz
9. Max - Bass
10. Evan - McPherson
11. Oliver – TBD
12. Doak – TBD (who cares)
DL
1. Coleman – Watt, Maxx
2. Cam – Hutch
3. Spe – Hunter, Burns
4. Max – N.Bosa
5. Kennedy – Garrett
6. Shelby – W.Anderson, J.Walker
7. Brian – Verse
8. Corey – Parsons
9. Oliver – Bonitto
10. Doak – Greenard
11. Sean – Van Ginkel
12. Cam – Abdul Carter
LB
1. Cam – Warner, Zaire
2. Doak – Roquan, Lavonte
3. Evan – Baun, Ernie
4. Coleman – Elliss, Okereke
5. Kennedy – Bobby Time
6. Max – Hines-Allen, Highsmith
7. Shelby – Edwards
8. Brian – Oluokun, Sherwood
9. Corey – Bolton, Queen
10. Spe - Bernard
11. Sean – Singleton, Cashman
12. Oliver – TBD
DB
1. Evan - Hunter
2. Brian – Branch
3. Doak – Derwin
4. Kennedy – Budda
5. Coleman – Hamilton
6. Shelby – Winfield
7. Max – Bates
8. Oliver - Metellus
9. Cam - Bynum
10. Spe - Cross
11. Corey - Starks
12. Sean - Brisker
QB Love vs.DET
RB Kyren vs.HOU
WR Lamb @PHI
WR DJ vs.MIN
TE Loveland vs.MIN
FX Breece vs.PIT
FX um…
K Bates @GB
DL Watt @NYJ
LB Maxx @NE
DB Hamilton @BUF
DX Elliss vs.TB
BN – Addison (SUS), STA, T.Harris, K.Williams, Okereke, Darnold
Worst QB, no answer at that second flex spot, and bad matchups for Lamb, Breece, Kyren, and your Bears. It does seem like a good spot for your IDPs to combined for 60, but you’d still need another 90 from everyone else to be competitive.
QB Maye vs.LV
RB Taylor vs.MIA
WR Puka vs.HOU
WR Pickens @PHI
TE McBride @NO
FX Waddle @IND
FX Ekeler vs.NYG
K Ka’imi @LAR
DL Van Ginkel @CHI
LB Singleton vs.TEN
DB Brisker vs.MIN
DX Cashman @CHI
BN – Jauan, Keenan, Javonte, Mims, Dak
So Dak plays @PHI on opening night (Thursday game). He hasn’t seen live action since Week 8 of last season. The Eagles are a top-5 defense, celebrating their Super Bowl, and they have an advantage at pretty much every position. The argument for Dak is the NFL will rig this game to stay close, and the Eagles’ weakest spot on defense is their secondary. I feel like they will focus on Lamb, and Pickens is good enough to make them pay for that. The argument for Maye is the Raiders’ defense totally sucks, and Maye is a much better runner than Dak.
The second flex spot is wide open. I have Ekeler in because he’s the most likely “starter” in that backfield, but I would probably prefer Keenan Allen in his return to LA, opening the season against the Chiefs. Sean’s gotta do better at IDP. Those 15 points on the margins can make or break your melee week.
QB Mahomes @LAC
RB Kamara vs.ARI
WR AJB vs.DAL
WR Sutton vs.TEN
TE Kittle @SEA
FX Metcalf @NYJ
FX Kirk @LAR
K TBD
DL Hendrickson? @CLE
LB Bonitto vs.TEN
DB Metellus @CHI
DX TBD
BN – Ford, Sampson, Skattebo, Benson
I am as surprised as anybody that Oliver isn’t dead last, but I feel like the Chiefs will have a big first week, and I like the matchups for almost all of Oliver’s players. The only question is whether to play it safe with Kirk or try to guess which Browns RB will get closer to ten points.
QB Burrow @CLE
RB Gibbs @GB
WR Odunze vs.MIN
WR Deebo vs.NYG
TE Hockenson @CHI
FX C.Brown @CLE
FX Harvey vs.TEN
K Dicker vs.KC
DL J.Walker vs.TB
LB W.Anderson @LAR
DB Winfield @ATL
DX Edwards vs.MIN
BN –Pollard, Warren, Keon, Reed, Herbert
WRs and second flex have to prove they can hold down those spots, but the upside is there.
QB Stroud @LAR
RB Bijan vs. TB
WR JSN vs. SF
WR Evans @ATL
TE Bowers @NE
FX Bucky @ATL
FX G.Wilson vs. PIT
K McLaughlin @ATL (dome)
DL Parsons? @PHI
LB Bolton @LAC
DB Starks @BUF
DX Queen @NYJ
BN – Ward, Rodgers, Chubb, Pitts, (empty)
IR – Aiyuk
Corey could be higher, but I’m dinging him for his IDPs. I don’t think Parsons plays, and I don’t think Queen or Starks are going to do big things in fantasy. I’m also worried the Steelers shut out the Jets and the Pats bracket Bowers. The Bucs are a pretty bad matchup for Bijan. It would make sense for them to focus on him and force Penix to beat them.
QB Bake @ATL
RB Cook vs.BAL
WR Jefferson @CHI
WR Egbuka @ATL
TE Njoku vs.CIN
FX Jones @CHI
FX Monty @GB
K McPherson @CLE
DL A.Carter @WSH
LB Baun vs.DAL
DB Hunter @CAR
DX Ernie vs.SF
BN – Rashee (SUS), Kupp, Bigsby, Tuten, Davis
Nothing to hate here, but not enough to love. Baker should see pretty overwhelming pressure from the Falcons’ new edge rushers, and you’ve got two timeshare RBs in the flex. I’m high on this group of IDPs, and the scoring in these games should favor Evan’s offensive players. I don’t love the Jefferson-Jones combo. They are probably the Vikings’ top two scorers, but I don’t see this offense firing right away.
QB Lamar @BUF
RB Henry @BUF
WR Tee @CLE
WR T-Mac @JAX
TE LaPorta @GB
FX Chuba @JAX
FX Swift vs.MIN
K TBD
DL Greenard @CHI
LB Roquan @BUF
DB Derwin vs.KC
DX Lavonte @ATL
BN – Jeudy, Ridley, Diggs, Bill, Ollie, Lawrence
IR – Downs (maybe)
If Downs can’t go on IR, then I messed up my last two picks. Needed a kicker knowing I would be above the roster limit. Now I’ll have to cut one or two players to fill that spot. I’m not willing to roll no-kicker in Week 1. I want every little morsel. I am not at all locked in to this lineup. Lamar, Henry, Tee, and the onesies are the only spots I’m sure about. Never too early to tinker.
QB Kyler @NO
RB Jeanty @NE
WR Flowers @BUF
WR Thornton? @NE
TE Andrews @BUF
FX Hampton vs.KC
FX Conner @NO
K Loop @BUF
DL Garrett vs.CIN
LB Spillane vs.LV
DB Budda @NO
DX Wagner vs.BYG
BN – Penix, Purdy, J.Higgins, M.Taylor, Chaad
IR – Dell, maybe Chaad
Starting Kyler because the Saints are bad. Feeling good about the Kyler-Conner stack. The Saints have talent on defense, but Brandon Staley’s scheme has not worked out since that season he had Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Kennedy has a big question mark at that second WR spot. I was feeling Thornton 15 minutes ago, then the Raiders signed Amari Cooper. The back-half of the lineup is unassailable, and the RBs are matchup-proof due to volume and offensive creativity in the run game.
QB Daniels vs.NYG
RB Henderson vs. LV
WR Chase @CLE
WR BTJ vs. CAR
TE Kraft vs. DET
FX Marv @NO
FX Golden vs. DET
K Lutz vs.TEN
DL Verse vs.HOU
LB Oluokun vs.CAR
DB Branch @GB
DX Sherwood vs.PIT
BN Pacheco, Tracy, Braelon, Wright, Marks
IR Godwin, McMillan
I’m averse to start two pass-catchers in the same offense unless that offense is pass-heavy, but with the Packers, I could see the passing offense being condensed around Golden and Kraft, so I’d take a shot against a Lions’ defense that has to reinvent itself a little bit. The obvious dilemma is choosing two out of Henderson, Golden, Pacheco, and Tracy; I’m starting the most dynamic players and not really thinking too deeply about it. I also think Pacheco and Tracy have tougher matchups. Daniels vs. NYG is a bad matchup because their front is so scary, but the secondary is weak enough that Daniels could use his legs to change the geometry and make explosive passing plays. And the IDPs are fire. Verse going against that unsettled Texans line is delicious.
QB Allen vs.BAL
RB Jacobs vs.DET
WR Nico @LAR
WR Adams vs.HOU
TE Kincaid vs.BAL
FX Jameson @GB
FX Dobbins vs.TEN
K Bass vs.BAL
DL N.Bosa @SEA
LB Hines-Allen vs.CAR
DB Bates vs.TB
DX Highsmith @NYJ
BN – Kaleb, Mason, Shaheed, Bateman, Goff
Max leads the league in matchup-proof players at the top: Allen, Jacobs, Nico, Adams, and Jameson can go off against anybody. Kincaid is meh season-long, but Week 1 should be good, assuming the Bills play games that get Kincaid matched up on the Ravens second off-ball LB. Chasing sacks is boom-bust, but the matchups lean boom.
QB Hurts vs.DAL
RB CMC @SEA
WR Nabers @WSH
WR McLaurin vs.NYG
TE Kelce @LAC
FX Achane @IND
FX DeVonta vs.DAL
K Boswell @NYJ
DL Burns @WSH
LB Bernard vs.BAL
DB Cross vs.MIA
DX Hunter @LAR
BN – Jakobi, Pittman, ETN, Charb, B.Rob, Najee, Rhamondre
IR – Shakir (maybe)
McLaurin just signed his contract, so that pick looks incredible now. Spencer has great players, good matchups, maybe a hole at DB but maybe Cross leads the team in tackles again. I would blow up this bench for better upside on Sunday morning when the tasty nuggets drop. Basically we’ll get big hints from beat writers an hour before kickoff, and I would tend to act on them even though occasionally they go awry.
QB Nix vs.TEN
RB Saquon vs.DAL
WR SunGod @GB
WR London vs.TB
TE Warren vs. MIA
FX Ladd vs.KC
FX Walker vs.SF
K Aubrey @PHI
DL Hutch @GB
LB Zaire vs.MIA
DB Bynum vs. MIA
DX Warner @SEA
BN – Worthy, Olave, Caleb, Engram, Spears
IR – Mixon
Mixon is officially out the first four weeks, but that was to be expected and has no impact on Cam’s lineup. I like it all, though I can see Ken Walker starting the season in an unfavorable timeshare because he spent so much of the offseason injured. I don’t know that it’s enough to start Worthy or Olave, but I would bet on Worthy’s upside if I did bench Walker. Cameron’s loaded elsewhere. Bo Nix is a fringe top-10 QB, but the matchup with Tennessee is a smash spot.
Have fun trying to shake the curse ;)
I’ll be back one more time before the season starts to break down any big news and go in-depth on the Bucs. Peace
