This is the earliest in a week that all of our matchups have been decided. Not only is there no Monday Night Intrigue, there was no Sunday Night Intrigue—beyond the question, “How will the Bucs screw this up?” The answer was, “Spectacularly.” The Bucs never led, and they were losing for 54 minutes of game clock. They essentially committed four turnovers but were fortunate enough to retain possession on two of them. The interception was great because McMillan caught the ball and then stepped into the endzone and then the defender ripped it away from him. The final fumble was awesome because Baker could have just taken a sack, then he could have just thrown the ball at White’s feet, then White could have gone down when he was losing control of the ball, then White could have gone down when he gained control of the ball, but instead White tried to run straight through a guy trying solely to take the ball away. At worst, the sack was going to cost the Bucs six yards and their timeout. At best, the reception and run after was going to gain them six yards. I get that they were just trying to win and not trying to do all that math. But man, it’s pretty rare for a play that dead to become anything more than a marginal gain. Winners—a cliched term but I just mean players who expect to win—don’t lose their heads over a five-yard loss with 1:30 and a timeout. They eat the timeout and get back to work. We only needed a field goal! And with McLaughlin’s leg, in the dome, we only needed 40 yards, and we had minimum six plays to get them. Fuck.
All right, you’ve held it in long enough. Feel free to congratulate me for avoiding last place. Not all at once. But if you want to give me credit for growing over the course of the season, you can cite my decision to start Josh Downs over Jerry Jeudy. Scared money don’t make none. I finally started the best player and the player I believed in the most. But wait—I also started Patrick Taylor because he was starting for the 49ers, with absolutely zero belief that Patrick Taylor is a good football player. I was just hoping for a TD, and you know what? Dude should have scored two. Forget it. It’s stupid. I should have started Jalen McMillan. Instead, congratulate for me for coming in and snaking away the last of the cash after I was eliminated from the playoffs. I even picked an absolutely un-riggable game. The fantasy gods just smiled upon me.
You can congratulate Oliver for starting seven players and still having a 13% of winning his matchup going into MNF. Jordan Love and Romeo Doubs need to combine for a minimum 52 FP. In Week 6, they combined for 58. Would be very Oliver to overload his roster for the playoffs, then lose by a million, then overload on “keepers,” then score more points with seven players than he did with twelve.
We can all celebrate parity. Even if Sean is making his third straight fantasy game, he’s playing a different opponent for the third time. This year’s final four had three different teams in with Sean. Half of this year’s playoff pool was made up of teams that missed the playoffs last year. Max and Coleman went from picking 2nd and 3rd overall to making the final four. One of them did it with five extra draft picks and a deadline picks-for-players deal, one of them did it with only their originals.
Jonathan Taylor was such an obvious trade deadline target, but nobody needed him. The final four teams were all at least three deep at RB, maybe not JT deep, but pretty fucking deep. Now Brian takes the hottest team into the game for the #1 pick. He snapped his eight-game losing streak last week, set this season’s high score this week, and even if the ride ends here, he still gets to pick 2nd in the draft.
Sean started the wrong QB, the wrong WRs, had weak plays at TE and two IDPs, and his alpha ceRB got him through at 166. Meanwhile, Coleman scored 180 without a QB. We like the trend, but we fear the dip.
So Sean survives, and I blame myself. I should never have encouraged Kennedy to bench Stroud. We should all be smoking cigars and putting them out on Sean’s balls right now, but instead we wait one more week, we watch the unfolding of the prophecy foretold, and we await the judgment of the fantasy gods. Have we been a league deserving of an underhanded coup, or have we shown virtue and growth and earned deliverance? Or might we get the Coleman win we all wished for and watch that last finger of the Monkey Paw go down, only to realize that our obsession with killing the king prevented us from critically thinking about what it means to have an assassin leading us into the next era?
Max, don’t blame yourself for not reaching the final round. This season was always going to come down to Coleman vs. Sean. You were always going to be one of ten casualties that led to this moment. You fought valiantly, clawed your way form last place all the way to the 5-seed, won your first playoff game, and you did it without resorting to stupid gimmicks.
Spencer, you got what people get when they do bad things. Some unsolicited advice: leave some room in your suitcase when you visit DC so that you don’t have to pay to ship the Jerry. And don’t let your cat break it. And get better at fantasy football. And stop trying to make Dalton Kincaid happen.
Congratulations to Corey and Brian for making it to the #1 pick game. Congratulations to Shelby and me for winning our final games. (I swear I’m not jinxing. 52 from Love and Doubs is just not happening.)
Next week comes at us fast. Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans are on Wednesday. Feels like a disadvantage for Coleman, who has Henry, Tucker, Hamilton, and Watt playing on three days’ rest, the final of three games in eleven days. But then again, it might be worse for the dudes who have to tackle Henry and for the guy responsible for blokcing Watt. So who knows. It also means if you have players on those teams you don’t want to hold through the offseason (i.e., they don’t have keeper eligibility/value—be careful with this, though, since the rules can change), you need to drop them before their games kickoff. It also means if there are any players from those teams you’d like to have as keeper options, you need to add them Wednesday morning. What better way to honor the Keeper of all Keepers, the Bambino Gesu.
Waiver Ranks for Week 17
1. Gus Edwards
2. Will Reichard
3. Hollywood Brown
4. Josh Hines-Allen
5. Alex Highsmith
6. Rashod Bateman
7. Brandon Jones
8. Xavier McKinney
9. Mason Rudolph
10. Michael Carter
Waiver Ranks for Keeps
1. Hollywood
2. Diontae Johnson
3. Bateman
4. Hines-Allen
5. Keaton Mitchell
6. Quentin Johnston
7. Adonai Mitchell
8. Will Anderson
9. Jake Ferguson
10. Kayshon Boutte
11. Luke McCaffrey
12. Nick Bosa (barf)
Fairbairn vs. Tucker looks even to me. Fairbairn has cooled off a little in the past few weeks, while Tucker looks to have gotten past whatever has gotten him to miss two feet to the left on every other kick. (Maybe a little change in the pocket, Tin Cup style?)
Houston’s defense is reeling without Al-Shaair’s leadership, making Henry’s matchup vs. Houston super tasty. Texans were among the league-leaders in missed tackles even before Al-Shaair’s suspension.
Watt vs.KC is tricky because refs let KC’s right tackle cheat. You can’t bench Watt; you can’t expect a big game. This is just the nature of the game.
Patrick Queen has become a consistent 9-10 FP guy for Brian, so you probably just roll with that unless you have a strong feeling about a replacement.
Corey doesn’t have any Wednesday action unless that’s where he looks to replace Taylor Rapp. It’s not worth following the injury news during the holidays. Just wait for the weekend.
Lamar vs. Stroud (right?), Nico, Flowers (maybe), Andrews (who, btw, led all starting TEs in scoring this week, so good trade). I’m completely distraught over Stroud being the key to beating Sean. I don’t even care who has a better matchup or anything. I don’t care who ends up with more points. You just go back to Stroud this week, and you go back to him next season. Or you just say, you know what, I’m out on this whole thing with Nico going back to the pool anyway. You keep Penix in, and you embrace the future.
Lamar vs. HOU could go either way. The Ravens’ offense will be at an overall advantage, but the Texans are strongest at edge and corner. They should be able to contain Lamar and prevent explosives, but the Ravens have the best offense in the league for a reason. They will exploit the weakness in the middle (good for Andrews no matter what), but will it be more Lamar or Henry? Keep in mind with Justice Hill getting hardcore concussed, Keaton Mitchell should be back up. On a short week, with the Ravens having clinched their playoff berth—granted they still want the division crown—it wouldn’t be crazy to see less work for Henry in this game.
Zay Flowers is a maybe because of a shoulder injury. Given this is for third place, you bench Flowers so that you don’t need to follow the news on Christmas, and you figure something else out. Or you grab Bateman off waivers and start him while you’re making coffee.
Evan and Cameron complete their forgettable seasons with the least important bowl of the year. It does determine who gets to pick 3rd as opposed to 4th, so it’s not nothing. This year, that was Justin Jefferson at 3 and Ja’Marr Chase at 4, and Ja’Marr ended up being the better. So it’s just barely more than nothing.
Cam starts Xavier Worthy, who benefits from the Chiefs being at full-strength on offense because it’s easier to execute the plays designed for him when the defense’s attention is mutiple elsewheres. Cam also starts Nick Bolton for an easy 10.
Hopkins faces the Steelers, who have not been defending the pass well, mostly because they refuse to adopt the two-high shell. It doesn’t appear that they are unaware of it; they just don’t believe in it. In Week 16 against the Ravens, they played the most single-high any defense has played in a single game this season, an astounding 81%, especially considering they played most of the game without their best two corners and their second best safety. If Hopkins is getting single-coverage, he should get touchdown opportunities. I’d bet on Hopkins outscoring Worthy if not for the chance for Worthy to run past the defense on any given play for 14 FP.
The rest of us are done for the year outside of cash games, which I should probably cook up before Wednesday’s kickoff. Kinda wanna curse Sean, kinda wanna open it up for the final game of the year. I’ll try to announce today. And I’ll give you the other three-quarters of the preview closer to the weekend. Peace.
