Round 1 of the playoffs honestly doesn’t do it for me. It’s nice that six teams get in, but we know there were never six teams vying for the championship. We didn’t know for sure which of the six weren’t for real, but (and maybe next year I’ll do a poll before Round 1) we likely could have narrowed it down to three legitimate contenders—Sean, Coleman, Max—and one dark horse (I would have picked Shelby, but congratulations to Kennedy, I guess).
Round 2 is where it gets good. Last year, Sean and Evan combined for almost 450 points in their Round 2 matchup. So many NFL teams are ravaged by injury and early elimination from the playoffs that the survivors start absolutely shredding. Granted, things have started a little early this year. There is a very realistic scenario where the entire AFC playoff race locks after this week’s game, meaning Weeks 17 and 18 would have zero impact on who makes the playoffs in the AFC. That would be less than ideal for fantasy football purposes. Sure, there would be jockeying for position, and most teams prefer to give their players a little bit of action anyway just to stay sharp. I’m sure it would be fine. Not fireworks. But fine. But anyway, the injuries and the giving up led to massive weeks for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, even Aaron Rodgers, and we should be able to expect more of the same, but not necessarily from the same players. Just a quick glance at where to find fantasy points based on playoff-hopefuls versus the tanking and the infirm:
Falcons start the Penix era against the Giants, who are alternating between DeVito and Lock each week, ensuring no rhythm on offense, and their defense is without their two best players in Dexy and Bobby. It’s a home game for the Falcons, the fans want Penix, and allegedly the players want Penix. There’s going to be so much juice, I might even consider starting Kyle Pitts just to get a taste.
Cards play a Panthers defense that made Cooper Rush and Rico Dowdle look like prime Aikman and Emmitt last week. The bonus is that the Panthers are not outright tanking. They are likely to put up a fight and make it a shootout or at least make the Cards nervous enough to run up the score.
Lions play a Bears team that can’t win; Bears play a Lions defense that can’t go one game without losing a starter to season-ending injury. The only thing preventing a shootout is that the game is in Chicago, and the Lions don’t have a bruiser back to earn the hard yards. Could end up being one of those weird low-scoring division games, but so far none of the NFC North games have gone that way.
Bengals are one loss away from elimination. Browns are waving the white flag. There’s a good chance Cleveland’s offense fails to launch and the Bengals never need to press the gas. I honestly think Jameis will be in by the beginning of the second half. If the Browns are stubborn and stick with DTR for the full game, I’d expect like a 24-10 Bengals win. If Jameis comes in, we could see 21-21 in the fourth quarter alone.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are playing for new contracts and Hall of Fame credentials. They are also competitive psychos who want to win regardless of playoff implications. They definitely don’t mind lowering the Jets’ draft stock since neither of them will be back next year. Against a bad Rams’ defense, I wouldn’t be shock if they combined for 80 FP again.
The 49ers have a razor-thin path to winning the division and no shot at the wild card. The Dolphins are one loss away from elimination. The vibes in San Francisco are intriguing. The whole De’Vondre Campbell quitting thing has power, but it’s unclear whether it can be harnassed for good. While 49ers players and coaches were adamant in their commitment to playing and winning, they were also down to rip this dude a new asshole in the town square. Like, maybe this reinvigorates them, but maybe it just gave them an opportunity to piss some vinegar. Maybe they’re all interested in quitting and they’re just mad someone actually did it. So this game could shootout, or the Dolphins could just murder them. Either way I want Dolphins.
Jags-Raiders is such an awesome game because both franchises badly want to lose, but both quarterbacks badly want to win, and not only win, but prove they should be able to compete for starting jobs next year. The defenses are… confusing. The Raiders have no talent but play with great intensity. The Jaguars have insane talent but no scheme. I wouldn’t shy away from starting the obvious names, is all I’m saying.
It appears the Saints will be without Carr and Kamara (and Olave and Shaheed and Taysom) against the Packers, so it’s fair to assume the Packers will control that one, but does that just mean it’s a Josh Jacobs game with a few explosives for the other guys? No way to know who will get the TDs, and that tends to be the only Packers receiver worth starting each week.
1. Sean – the garbage trade offers have subsided, but only depending on who is receiving the offer. He will never retire the lowball, but if he’s opening the trade talks, you can work him down to a fair trade. He grew tired of the normal villainy and crafted the talisman that grants unlimited wishes. He also tries to rig the cash game. He must be stopped.
Comp: Merlock
2. Corey – Besides Sean, he’s the most recent champ. Chuck Klosterman defines the worst kind of villain as the one who knows the most and cares the least. It’s debatable whether Corey knows the most, but he has lived the longest, played the most (tie with Evan) organized football, knows what he’s looking at when he watches football, plays in enough leagues to have a solid sense of the market, yet he routinely wastes roster spots (like literally leaves them empty), sits on the top waiver claim, and goes into matchups without full lineups. The worst part is he stays competitive! He was like 10 points in the melee from making the playoffs this year. And he’s absent from the chat too often.
Comp: Bo Callahan
3. Cameron – no brownie points awarded for laying low while your team runs cold. When you were on top, you wouldn’t shut up. And as Kennedy intimated, you negotiate with terrorists. You were the first to sell Sean a good player for cheap this year. You committed the original sin.
Comp: The Serpent
4. Max – demands punishment for the losers, has no shame in building a team around creeps and abusers, forgets the rules all the time, can’t even score 200 points.
Comp: Shenzi, Banzai, and Ed
5. Spencer – the Josh Allen deal will live in infamy. Spencer has the power to win the league, the insight, the know-how, the time, the somewhat recent championship. But Spencer quits from time to time. Spencer loses sight of what makes a champion and what makes a leaguemate. Also not above rigging a cash game or making it so convoluted that no one knows how to win.
Comp: Penguin
6. Oliver – spends half his time trying to exploit league rules and make moves that are meant to weaken other teams, sometimes living too far in the future to succeed in the present (his assumption that his 2nd rounder would somehow be less valuable because of changes in the market still doesn’t make any sense to me). Dropping Casa Bonitto this week was sad and potentially harmful. Don’t put that kind of fire on the wire when people are still in the fight.
Comp: Riddler
7. Doak – I wouldn’t say I have bad intentions, but I definitely try to tip the scales. I want mayhem. I want league rules that increase parity and reward activity. I wield the jinx with reckless abandon. At some point during the season, I started believing Coleman would win it all, he’s like 3-3 since then. Since I started counting Max completely out and even made an offer for Lamar, Max is scoring like 175 a week. My villainy spawns from a lack of understanding my own powers.
Comp: Chronicle
8. Kennedy – he doesn’t want to be evil, but he doesn’t want to be good. His intentions aren’t pure. It’s embodied in the McCaffrey trade, where sure, he offered a 2nd or Rhamondre plus a 4th. He paid a fair price for a shaky asset, but you just know he thought he was getting the old 30-points McCaffrey. You just know he thought he got in the week before the big pop (which… nvm). His original stance on the post-deadline trade says it all. He didn’t mind voting to allow because he thought he might benefit down the road.
Comp: Count Dooku
9. Evan – this is a big win for Evan. In past years, he could have found himself in the top three four sure. But ever since a man’s death doomed what would have been a clear victory in the 2022 championship, Evan, like, found god or something and has been a beacon of good vibes in the chat. He’s also given out a lot of free wins this year. His warts are his gripes about cash games and his unwillingness to trade into the future. But for now, he’s mostly redeemed.
Comp: Dominic Toretto
10. Shelby – all I’ll say is, she’ll let you know. There’s no evil there, but there’s a cutting edge. There are teeth, and there are claws. And if her roster were just a little differently constructed, if she had one more win before the trade deadline, I think she would have made moves to put that dagger to the king’s throat.
Comp: Vince Vaughn
11. Brian – mostly ranked this low because of a lack of consequence, but he twisted the trolling dial all the way to 11 this year. And in past years, Brian would gladly lie, cheat, and steal to get ahead. He would have made that post-deadline deal regardless of the result of the vote. He’s also been known to make a lopsided trade just to see people freak out about it.
Comp: Bluey
12. Coleman – our champion, he made fair trades that led to a draft haul, he kept his eyes ahead of him while he loped to the front and never let up. He was the voice of reason throughout the season, and I swear there has to be at least one time that a good thing has happened to a good person, regardless of how many monsters are rooting for him.
Comp: Mike Wazowski
I have the more complete team. Spencer has been last in scoring for most of the year and deserves overall last place more than I do. I am a little worried about seeing Aaron Rodgers in that lineup Sunday morning and might just have to eat the roster spot to prevent that from happening. I am a little worried that I’m not worried enough about losing, but with one week left in my season, I’m just trying to let go and enjoy watching the Bucs, which is one of two reasons I might let Jalen McMillan in my lineup. The other is that he’s low-key balling now that he’s healthy. Ultimately the matchup will come down to whether or not my RB slumlord strategy pays off for the first time in like five tries this year.
Coleman has two advantages in this matchup: Max has to start Lamar against the Steelers, who held Lamar under 20 FP earlier this year; and Max probably won’t know Alvin Kamara’s status until Monday afternoon, meaning Max either has to bench one of his best players or wait until Monday to possibly start, like, Romeo Doubs instead of him. (Add Doubs, is what I’m saying.) I also think Coleman has a sneaky third advantage in that Max has been blisteringly hot despite a lack of convincing talent. I say that, but you know what? They have good matchups, so let me just keep it moving. Coleman’s keys to victory are going to Be TJ Watt playing through his injury, Mike Evans going over 100 again, Justin Jefferson roaring back after dropping an easy TD last week, and Derrick Henry putting the Ravens on his back for no fucking reason other than his only lost fumble of the year might have cost them their previous game against the Steelers. And obviously Hurts needs to score 30, which he should have no trouble doing unless Saquon houses a couple of 60-yarders.
This is me praying. Sure, I’d rather see Sean make it as far as possible before losing, but I also don’t want to leave anything to chance. I’d rather Penix throws five TDs and become a Mortydome legend. I’m not kidding when I say Kennedy has to start him. He’s amazing. His release, his veolcity, his accuracy, his timing, his confidence… he’s a stud. Plus he used to have wheels before his knee injuries, which he’s basically two years removed from, so he might have wheels again, or at least enough wheels to scam 50 yards and some first downs while he’s not shooting lasers. Look, could the Falcons decide to stick with the run, protect Penix, win an easy one against the Giants? Yes, I live in fear of that. But CJ Stroud faces the Chiefs, who aren’t letting anybody do anything. The QBs who have thrown for more than 250 against KC this year are Lamar, Allen, and AOC (aka the exception that proves the rule). I’m fine starting Nico because he’s a great receiver with a supposedly great QB, but I don’t want to stack against an elite defense if I have other options.
God, Kennedy’s bench is weak. I was going to try to make a case for how you might consider benching Nico for the right look, but if looks could kill, boy, if looks could kill…
Sean should have an easy time with this one. Kennedy’s drawing dead with only one RB, a QB making his debut, and no Bobby Time. Meanwhile, Sean’s at full strength plus he has options. His only real question mark is at WR, whether he should start DeVonta, Deebo, or Ridley. I know it’s stupid, but it’s gotta be Deebo. I understand what happened last week. I understand the disappointment, but I also understand the elements. Sure, Deebo should be able to catch in the rain. But guess what? It’s not gonna rain during this week’s game. But even if you’re a scared little baby who’s afwaid of a wittuh wain, just start Calvin Ridley. In three games with Rudolph guiding his sleigh, he had 18, 11, and 24 FP against decent defenses.
Oliver is quitting? I’m not sure what’s going on. He’s sleep deprived and thinking about a lot of things that actually matter, so maybe he’s quitting. He’s dropped all of his IDPs for keepers, so I assume it’s quitting.
Just for old time’s sake, for one last hurrah, Shelby should throw Chaad in the lineup. Hell, get a Buc for the defense, too.
You know, I’ve had it in the back of my mind, and I’m not going to adjust it, but Brian’s villain ranking is all wrong, especially since he’s about to storm the pick ladder and pick first next year. It’s not even that Brian has anything specific going for him. I look at Cam’s lineup and see a bunch of heartbreak. Bo Nix on the road on Thursday Night Football, against the Chargers coming off two straight losses to much stffer competition. Nix has been covering it up with fantasy points, but he has thrown five interceptions in his last two games, and his rushing production has been non-existent. Pollard is hurt. Lamb is hurt enough that the Bucs could successfully ice him out of the game and force Dowdle, Tolbert, and Ferguson to beat them. Ladd getting shut down by either the league’s best corner or the league’s best white corner. Cam’s IDPs are intriguing, and a huge IDP day can mean everything. It might be as simple as Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury not being able to solve the Eagles’ defense, but I’d still assume that puts Daniels even with a disappointing day from Bo Nix.
Baker over Goff especially with Goff on the road in the cold and Baker in a dome. Swift revenge game against a broken Lions defense. WRs are kind of a wash with AJ Brown being a god but Hopkins maxing out at 12 FP, versus a hot JSN and a boom-bust Mooney. Brock Bowers is an X-factor, especially against Cole Kmet. Bucky and Jakobi should crush Charbs and Marv, but if the latter can get a TD apiece, that would be enough. Evan can cover for them with big IDP games, while Corey has some stuff to figure out at IDP. Wow, Corey’s low-key stacked if he can’t find room for McLaurin, which, don’t try too hard, because there’s plenty of reason to believe McLaurin gets erased from this game since Washington’s next best receivers are Dyami Brown and Jamison Crowder. I will say, with Corey not being able to squeeze Rhamondre in, that he should have taken the 2nd.
Crazy to think the next note will be posted the morning of Christmas Eve, that there will only be three more notes this season, that it’s all wrapping up. I’m definitely tired enough to welcome the end. This has easily been the most taxing autmun of my adult life. Work all day, parent all evening, write all night. I’m grateful that I have a week between the end of fantasy football season and the beginning of grad school. I will just warn you now (for the second time, I think): next year’s notes are going to be different. If everything goes according to plan, I will be long-term subbing in kindergarten (meaning teaching full-time, meaning at least an extra hour or two per day), full-time grad-schooling (mostly online, but still, copious readings of PDFs and answerings of prompts), and still the toddler- and puppy-parenting in all the spaces between. It makes me want to convert my bed into a coffin and install a lock on the inside. All this to say, my current idea is to power-hour the weekly note and like, you get what you get, whatever comes to me in that hour, football or nah, that’s the note.
Anyway, Kennedy rules and Sean drools.
