The “This Guy Doesn’t Have a Social Security Number for Roy” Award – Max went off the grid for six weeks right in the middle of the season. He was in last place at 3-7. No one would have questioned it if he auctioned off Lamar at that point. Now he’s tied with Sean for longest active win streak, and the wins have been legit, with Max averaging close to 175 per week during that four-game stretch.
The “Summer Does a Die Hard” Award – Shelby, merc’ing fools down the stretch to lock up that last playoff spot. It’s been absolutely wild and irresponsible, as if she’s never seen Die Hard or even heard of the Centauri Tower Man.
The “Back to the Carpet Store” Award – Oliver, going all in again with a worse roster than last year. You could have played this year straight, made the playoffs, and gone into next season with a clean slate, but you just can’t help yourself from reaching for that Persian off-white shag.
The “Roy the Rocket” Award – Cameron looked good for most of the season. Then one day, maybe as early on as the Dak injury, it became clear he was going to have to be more realistic about where this year was headed.
The “Cool Kids Doing Young Stuff” Award – Spencer. Pretty much anyone who spent a high pick on a rookie ended up regretting it, and Spencer doubled down.
The “8% of the Snyder Cut was Batman Dreaming” Award – Evan, for having the most expendable season among us. Among non-playoff teams, he’s the only one not to acquire a pick.
The “Holiest War Ever” Award – Sean and Coleman split this award, only instead of the traditional holy way between two groups, this holy war is between a man in the process of becoming a god and a powerless group nonetheless intent on stopping him.
The “Gotta Finish My Zinger” Award – Brian, for team names.
The “The Game’s Still Going, But Roy’s Dead” Award – Kennedy, for limping into the playoffs with a broken roster and almost definitely getting axed in Round 1, only to head into next year’s draft down multiple picks.
The “Some Old Lady Living a Full Life” Award – Doak, getting the most out of a dead season, loving every minute of this hopeless charade.
The “You Kinda Wasted Your Thirties with That Whole Birdwatching Phase” Award – Corey not using his waiver priority, especially since Guerendo would have gotten him in the playoffs.
The “You Sold a Gun to a Guy That Kills People” Award – Spencer, for trading Josh Allen to the one guy you don’t trade Josh Allen to.
Best record: Coleman & Sean, 10-4
Longest W streak: 5 - Coleman
Longest L streak: 8 - Brian
(Fun fact: Brian has only won or lost on streaks: four straight wins followed by eight straight losses)
Highest High: Evan, 219 in W6
(next best: Coleman, 217)
Lowest Low: Spe, 82 in W4
(next worst: Shelby, 93 twice)
Highest Low: Coleman, 128
(next best: Brian, 122)
Lowest High: Spe, 155
(next worst: Corey, 157)
Lowest score in a win: Corey, 109
Highest score in a loss: Sean, 178
Most transactions: Doak, 164
(perfectly doubled my first half numbers)
(next most: Oliver, 69)
Fewest transactions: Corey, 16
(next: Coleman, 22)
Most messages: Doak, 815
(next most: Cameron, 380)
Fewest msgs: Corey, 37
(next fewest: Sean, 81)
QB
1. Max, 33.9 → 32.6
2. Evan, 26.7 → Spencer, 26.1
3. Spencer, 26.1 → Coleman, 26
4. Doak, 24.3 → Shelby, 25.7
5. Coleman, 23 → Doak, 23.9
6. Brian, 22.9 → 23.5
7. Oliver, 21.2 → Evan 23.4
8. Corey, 21 → 23.2
9. Shelby, 19.6 → Sean, 21.7
10. Cameron, 18.6 → Oliver, 18.6
11. Kennedy, 18.5 → Cam, 18
12. Sean, 17.8 → Kennedy, 15.7
Shelby averaged 34 ppg from her QB spot over the second half of the year. Kennedy averaged 13 yet traded picks to bolster RB and TE.
RB
1. Coleman, 61.3 → Sean, 56
2. Max, 53.3 → Coleman, 54.7
3. Sean, 53.2 → Max, 49.4
4. Kennedy, 45 → 47.6
5. Oliver, 43.4 → 42.9
6. Cameron, 32.6 → 33
7. Brian, 31.3 → 32
8. Shelby, 25.1 → 31
9. Doak, 24.5 → 24.2
10. Corey, 20.7 → Evan, 21.7
11. Spencer, 20 → Corey, 21.6
12. Evan, 19.2 → Spe, 19.5
Pretty easy to tell who has three good RBs, who has two, and who has one. Another category where Shelby has heated up in the second half. Coleman’s seven-point drop in this category helps explain why he hasn’t been as dominant. Also goes to show how few RB injuries we’ve had this season.
WR
1. Evan, 49.1 → 43.7
2. Doak, 36.7 → Shelby, 39.5
3. Spencer, 35 → Corey, 38
4. Kennedy, 32.9 → Spe, 33.6
5. Shelby, 32.8 → Cam, 32.9
6. Coleman, 32.3 → Doak, 32.8
7. Brian, 31.9 → Coleman, 30.5
8. Corey, 29.7 → Kennedy, 30
9. Cameron, 25.7 → Brian, 28.7
10. Oliver, 22.2 → Sean, 24.9
11. Sean, 22.1 → Oliver, 24.5
12. Max, 19.5 → 21.8
Massive drop in Evan’s production with Diggs and Godwin gone. Another huge spike for Shelby, who’s up six points per game at each position so far. “She’s killing us off one by one!” Biggest spike here goes to Corey, who pretty much switched to a 4-WR lineup for most of the second half. Cameron’s taken a huge jump here, as well, going from a 3-RB lineup to a 3-WR since giving up on Tank Bigsby.
TE
1. Oliver, 12.4 → 14.2
2. Corey, 11.7 → 12.2
3. Evan, 9.5 → Max, 12.1
4. Brian, 9.5 → Sean, 10.7
5. Sean, 8.4 → Doak, 10.6
6. Shelby, 7.1 → Brian, 9.3
7. Spencer, 6.3 → Evan, 8.9
8. Max, 6 → Shelby, 8.3
9. Kennedy, 5.9 → Coleman, 8.3
10. Doak, 5.8 → Spe, 6.4
11. Coleman, 5.4 → Kennedy, 5.9
12. Cameron, 4.6 → 5.7
Oliver went from starting just one TE to spot-starting a second every other week, otherwise Corey and Max would probably be ahead here. My massive improvement was also due to starting multiple TEs multiple weeks. Would be even higher if I’d started Taysom on his 40-point week. In fact, I would be in the playoffs, and Max wouldn’t. Excuse me while I find the tallest nearby building.
K
1. Cameron, 15 → 11.8
2. Sean, 12.8 → 11.31
3. Spencer, 12 → Corey, 11.29
4. Kennedy, 12 → Spe, 10.2
5. Corey, 11.7 → Kennedy, 9.5
6. Coleman, 10.3 → Shelby, 9.4
7. Doak, 9.27 → Oliver, 9.1
8. Oliver, 9 → Doak, 9
9. Max, 8.21 → 8.8
10. Brian, 8.19 → 8.7
11. Shelby, 7.5 → Coleman, 8.3
12. Evan, 7.4 → 7.7
Shelby is the only person who gained more than a point per game from her kicker. So far, she’s up in every category.
DL
1. Coleman, 17.2 → 15.9
2. Corey, 15.4 → Doak, 15.7
3. Cameron, 11.1 → 10.43
4. Shelby, 10.8 → Corey, 10.39
5. Sean, 9.8 → 9.8
6. Evan, 9.2 → Kennedy 9
7. Kennedy, 8.1 → Brian, 8.5
8. Brian, 7.5 → Evan 8.5
9. Doak, 7.4 → Shelby, 8.4
10. Max, 6 → 7.3
11. Spencer, 4.1 → Oliver, 6
12. Oliver, 2.4 → Spe, 4.1
Corey’s huge drop is due to Hutch’s injury. My huge increase is due to starting two or three DLs every week and getting 63 from them in Week 12 alone.
LB
1. Cameron, 21.6 → Evan, 21
2. Oliver, 20.4 → Spe, 18.7
3. Evan, 20 → Brian, 17.8
4. Spencer, 18.6 → Sean, 17.7
5. Kennedy, 18.5 → 17.3
6. Brian, 18.1 → Oliver, 16.8
7. Sean, 17.9 → Cam, 16
8. Doak, 15.5 → Corey, 15.9
9. Max, 14.3 → 15.7
10. Corey, 12.6 → Coleman, 12.46
11. Shelby, 10.7 → Doak, 10.7
12. Coleman, 7.4 → Shelby, 10.4
Coleman was only starting one LB, now he’s usually starting two. Shelby, Cam, and I are only starting one. Otherwise, numbers are pretty static, confirming my assumption that LB is the most replaceable position because I assure you we have been starting a bunch of different LBs.
DB
1. Brian, 16.7 → Shelby, 13.5
2. Kennedy, 10.3 → Cam, 12.1
3. Doak, 10.2 → Brian, 11.8
4. Shelby, 10 → Doak, 11.1
5. Oliver, 9.6 → Sean, 9.9
6. Max, 8.9 → Kennedy, 9.5
7. Sean, 8.6 → Coleman, 9.1
8. Cameron, 8.1 → Max, 8.5
9. Coleman, 7.9 → Spe, 8.4
10. Spencer, 7.4 → Oliver, 8.3
11. Corey, 5.22 → 6.08
12. Evan, 5.21 → 6.07
Kudos to Corey and Evan for their commitment to the bit. Shelby and Cam are on top because they’re starting two DBs. Brian’s fallen off because Brian Branch has fallen off. While I sit in 4th place, my boy Budda Baker dominates the position.
1st Half vs. 2nd Half PPG
Sean 150 → 173
Coleman 164 → 166
Shelby 127 → 165
Max 150 → 163
Corey 127 → 150
Doak 133 → 143
Oliver 140 → 140
Cameron 140 → 139
Kennedy 151 → 138
Evan 146 → 136
Brian 146 → 135
Spencer 129 → 125
It’s so over if Sean didn’t in fact peak in Week 14.
Byes: Coleman, Sean, Cameron, Corey
Spencer has either given up or not checked their lineup yet because there’s no way you can start Russell Wilson against the Eagles when you could opt for either Rodgers @JAX, Cousins @LV, or Levis vs.CIN. There’s just no good reason to do it. I mean, maybe you’re thinking Philly is whatever because of how Bryce Young performed against them, but I think that’s a byproduct of teams not knowing how to prepare for the Panthers’ offense since their bye. Russ has been making the most of matchups against the Browns and Bengals, but the last time he played a good defense (the Ravens), he failed to get to 5 FP. I’d be nervous about it. No Pickens, good defense. I’m anticipating a turnover or two and max one TD. Whereas Rodgers is gonna carve the Jags, Cousins—fine don’t play Cousins—and Levis is going to throw 40 times against that garbage Bengals defense… You know what, start Russ. Either the Jags are decent or Levis can’t throw on anyone, and a bad day from Russ would be less embarrassing than a bad day from the other three.
Baker leads a Bucs offense that has had a league-leading seven 400-yard games versus a Chargers defense that only allowed 400 yards to the Bengals and (practically) the Ravens. It’s the toughest game left on the Bucs’ schedule, and the key to victory against the Chargers this year has been holding them under 20 points. When the Chargers score 20+, they are 7-1, with the one loss coming to the Ravens the night JK Dobbins got hurt after just one quarter. The Bucs’ defense can hold the Chargers and win. The Bucs’ offense probably can’t do enough through the air to get Baker above 20 FP.
Spencer doesn’t have any RBs anymore and didn’t try to get any on waivers. There are still free agent RBs worth stabbing at: Tyjae Spears would lead the Titans backfield if Pollard is out, all the Chargers’ RBs are available, Tyler Allgeier has been getting close to ten touches per game, and Antonio Gibson is returning kicks and getting a decent amount of RB work. There’s better stuff out there than Ray Davis and Travis Homer.
If Ken Walker is out again, Spencer is cooked. In three games without Walker, Zach Charbonnet has scored 15, 28, and 37 FP. Evan doesn’t have a significant advantage at the other positions, but overall it’s an advantage. The thing to watch out for is that Spencer’s four WRs combined for 66 FP last week. With more competitive plays at RB, TE, and DL, Spencer can upset Evan and avoid last place.
I don’t like Marvin Harrison’s game, but as long as the Cardinals are committed to getting him those 8-10 targets, he’s fine for fantasy.
IDP scoring should be even, but pretty random scoring from their DLs could be the deciding factor.
Right now, the plan is to bench Jameis and start Purdy. I’m not committed to it. I’m not committed to Nick Chubb, either. I don’t want to start players against the Chiefs’ defense. The most points they’ve allowed this year was 30, to the Bills. Behind that, it was 27 to the Panthers (who were coming off bye and did not resemble the team everyone had on tape), 24 to the Bucs, and 25 to the Bengals. Every other team has scored 20 or less, and I kinda feel like the Browns are every other team when compared to the Bills, Bucs, and Bengals’ offense. Still, it’s Jameis. He threw for 400 yards on a supposedly elite Broncos defense in Mile High. I’m considering it a tie, and I’m breaking it by avoiding that Cleveland winter and opting for the slight chance of rain in San Francisco on Thursday night. I might be playing myself by ignoring Anthony Richardson as an option. He’s playing Denver in Mile High, the Colts are coming off a bye… I’m probably rolling with Purdy, giving him this week against a dreadful Rams defense as an audition to earn that late keeper slot over AR.
Brian is starting Jayden Daniels coming off a bye, so I’m bracing for a loss and a spot in the last-place game next week. Daniels plays @NO who will be starting Jake Haener at QB.
I don’t have any other logical spot to vent my frustration about rage-dropping Rico Dowdle after he was one of the guys I started over Taysom Hill. I added him thinking he would be another Chuba. I’ve since added Sincere McCormick with the same hope. I could be in the playoffs starting Jameis, Chuba, Dowdle, and McCormick, and maybe even winning! Now I’m flexing Josh Downs instead of trying to choose between Cleveland’s timeshare RBs.
Brian is probably without Breece Hall again, but Jonathan Taylor is back. Braelon Allen was at least as good as Sincere McCormick last week, and Taylor and Chuba are an even match (Taylor averages 0.5 FP more per game).
Remember those couple hours where Jonathan Taylor and Drake London were on my roster? I’m trying to forget. I would feel a lot better about this game if I didn’t have to face them. Brian hasn’t set his lineup yet, but I imagine he’ll start BTJ over Reed after Reeds’ goose egg last week. Either way, I feel like our WRs matchup well. When I think about the flex spot in terms of matching up against Brian’s I get a little more tempted to start Christian Watson for the ceiling.
My only advantage, I think, is at IDP, where I am expecting a solid 40 points to Brian’s 25-30 this week.
Overall, it’s gonna be close. It’s gonna be 135-128, and it’s gonna come down to Jonathan Greenard vs. Drake London on Monday night.
Loser has to axe the nickname.
I think Oliver is doing the gamesmanship thing by “starting” Caleb Williams. I would rather add and start Rodgers against the Jags than start the most sacked QB in the league against the defense that’s fourth in sacks. I know Caleb had 30 FP last time they played, but that was in Chicago, the week after the Bears promoted Thomas Brown to OC. The Vikings have tape now. It is intriguing that Caleb hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6. It is intriguing that he has multiple TDs in each of his last three games. It’s concerning that he’s facing a great defense for the second time and that he had somewhat surprising success against them the first time. It’s more concerning that the game is on the road in a dome and the opposing fans will be fucking loud. I foresee a quicksand game.
Lamar comes off bye to face a fully tanking Giants team, which lowers Lamar’s ceiling but raises his floor pretty close to his projected 30 FP. Oliver can’t compete with that floor. Caleb, Herbert, and Love are all facing defenses that can prey on their weaknesses. (Herbert’s isn’t so much his weakness as his surrounding cast and offensive scheme’s weakness as it relates to scoring a lot of fantasy points.) Ugh, I guess you’re right to start Caleb. I’m just so concerned that chasing ceiling is going to screw you, while Herbert is the superior talent facing the inferior defense. Honestly, hone in on the fact that the Bucs are playing without their starting safeties. I think that plus McConkey suiting up would be enough to get Herbert in my lineup.
The jewel of this contest is the RB 3-on-3. The talent is equal, the volume is equal, and the best defense any of them are playing is barely top-12 against the run. Inconsequential. This matchup is going to come down to two things: one of these RB groups is outscoring the other by a couple TDs, and Max lives or dies based on how his two Dolphins receivers play. His hot streak has depended on STA and Jonnu combined for 30 per game, facing a Texans defense combing off bye after being embarrassed in four of their last five games. I think I THINK the Texans figure out some cheat codes against the Dolphins and limit that duo to 15-20 FP. Margins, baby.
I don’t know how Oliver is going to decide what to do at WR, but I don’t think benching Davante Adams is it. I think Rodgers is down to pad his and Davante’s stats as long as they’re out there. I would never in a million years start Keenan Allen over Cooper Kupp, but this season specifically, it seems impossible to justify benching Courtland Sutton. You overloaded, and it makes a mess, and I’m hoping you see through the charm of stacking Caleb and Allen. I like Keenan Allen, but I’d rather start two bonafide #1 WRs in Sutton and Adams. If you want to stack, stack Rodgers and Adams. (Don’t do that. What you should have done all along was added Bo Nix.)
Kittle is the right choice at TE. There is no contest there.
IDP tilts in Max’s favor because of the boom-bust nature of Oliver’s. He’s starting two edge rushers and a chess piece in Crosby, Bonitto, and Luvu, then he’s counting on an INT if he wants points from Murphy (weird bet if you’re also starting the QB playing against him; hedging within your own lineup is not your friend; you want to maximize your upside with your season on the line). Max is starting boom-bust Chris Jones (three booms and nine busts so far this year), but Zaire and Bernard are rock-solid bets for 10+ FP apiece. I’d probably swap out Kerby Joseph after five straight weeks in single-digits unless you have a gut feeling he’s getting another INT this week. Kevin Byard and Xavier Woods would be my top picks.
Shelby is the 6-seed, but she’s playing like the 3-seed. Kennedy is averaging 27 fewer points per game than Shelby over the second half of the season. However, the matchups on Kennedy’s side are all shootouts, and the matchups on Shelby’s side are sludge-dumpsters. Kennedy’s points are concentrated in Bills-Lions and Texans-Dolphins, and then he has a choice between Thielen vs.DAL or Isaiah Davis @JAX, either of which probably gets him 10. What I would do, as risky as it appears, is flex Zay Flowers despite starting Mark Andrews. Put it all on black. Bet on your good offenses in your must-win game. Thielen is fine. I wouldn’t be mad about it. The Cowboys’ defense should be good, but they keep getting hurt. So I get it if you just start Thielen.
Shelby’s Bengals face the Titans, who suck, and the Bengals have to win to stay alive in the AFC playoff chase. But the Bengals don’t have to shred, and they don’t have to keep up. The Jags beat the Titans 10-6 last week. However, because Shelby has the whole offense, she doesn’t really need them to shred. They could control the ball and move the chains with the Chases and net Shelby 60 points. The issue is then Shelby would need her Steelers to pick up the slack, and they face the Eagles, arguably the best defense in the league.
And there are tough decisions to be made to optimize this lineup. Shelby’s starting her Bengals, and I would argue she has to start Najee, but if I’m so afraid of the Eagles’ defense, then what am I talking about there? I’m also afraid of the Vikings and Chargers, so DJ Moore and Rachaad White aren’t gimmes. If Bucky Irving is out, then Chaad is a must-start. Jaylen Waddle has been hot, but he has a hamstring issue. Jaylen Warren is splitting work with Najee, maybe starting either of them caps your upside… Assuming Bucky sits and you lock in White, then you’re down to two spots for Moore, the Steelers RBs, and Waddle. Who are your best two players, independent of situation? Gut reaction: Moore and Waddle. It saves you from having to pick between the Steelers. However, if Bucky plays, I think starting both Steelers is a strong floor-play (even if it burned you last week).
I don’t have any notes for Kennedy’s IDPs. I hope he goes back to Bobby Time if Okereke is healthy, but he has two decently high-floor DBs with serious ball skills. Shelby is probably in good shape with her current setup, as well.
So I expect Kennedy to bounce back huge, score in the 170s. While Shelby’s got 170+ in her upper-range, the matchups make something around 140 a more realistic outcome. While I consider realistic outcomes, I tend to believe we’ll see surprises. In this case, the surprise I think we see is the Bengals shredding despite not needing to, just playing as sharp as fucking possible, keeping their foot on the gas all game long if for no other reason than to maintain the habit of staying sharp for four quarters, every game, as long as they’re mathematically in the playoff hunt.
Whatever happens, we have to wait a week to see someone draw blood from Sean. My hope is that Josh Allen has another face-melter and is just completely spent for the meaningful weeks. Peace.
