Apologies to Cameron, who has been waiting 36 hours to take his Thursday morning dump.
When it’s melee week, I like to step back and look at the big picture. Without Mortydome matchups to zoom in on, it’s an opportunity to look at the league matchups in more detail, beyond a fantasy context, in order to get our bearings heading into our playoffs.
Chiefs
Lions
Bills
Eagles
Ravens
Steelers
Chargers
Texans
Packers
Vikings
Commanders
Broncos
Cardinals
Seahawks
Falcons
Bucs
Dolphins
Rams
49ers
Colts
Bengals
Cowboys
Browns
Saints
Jets
Bears
Panthers
Raiders
Patriots
Titans
Jags
Giants
Important absences:
QB – Nix, Daniels, Lamar, Stroud (debatable)
RB – Taylor, Rhamondre, Brian Robinson, Henry, Mixon
WR – Sutton, Pittman, McLaurin, Flowers, Nico, Dell
TE – Henry, Ertz, Andrews
K – Lutz, Tucker (jk), Ka’imi
DL – Bonitto, Hunter, Anderson
LB – Zaire, Speed, Bobby W, Luvu, Roquan, Al-Shaair (sigh)
DB – Cross, Hamilton, Marcus Jones
Most impacted teams:
Max plays without Lamar or Zaire, who average a combined 43 per week (last week they had 55). Tua and Brooks have averaged a combined 43 over the past three weeks, but the week before that they combined for just 20. Lamar and Zaire’s lowest combined total was 22 in Week 11, but their next lowest was 30 in Week 2. On the season, Tua and Brooks average 31, so the simple story is Max losing 11 points.
Kennedy plays without Stroud, Nico, Andrews, and the older half of Bobby Time (and Zay Flowers, but Kennedy might have benched him anyway to heat-check MVS and Thielen in kind of a freebie week). In their stead, he stacks Carr with MVS (nasty work [complimentary]), Noah Gray, and DJ Wonnum (motivation for this fixation unclear). Kennedy has gotten 35 from the Texans stack in the last two weeks (Nico’s return to full-time play), Andrews averages 11 (excluding that anomalous first month), and B-Dubs averages 9 but notably has scored double-digits in just one of his last eight games after averaging 15 FP per game the first five weeks. But let’s call it 55 from the four of them, while over the past three weeks (coincidentally accompanying significant changes to their situations) Carr and MVS combine for 42 per game in the three weeks (in which MVS has 55 fantasy points on seven catches), Gray averages 14, and Wonnum 9. So Kennedy loses four starters and adds ten points because he is a mess. (I will caveat by pointing out that the four replacements scored just 41, so we could call it a 14-point loss or we could split and call it basically even—a mess nonetheless).
Brian plays without JD, JT, EJ Speed, and Al-Shaair (64 combined per game) replaces with the Geno-Metcalf stack, Verse, and Queen (46 per game).
Coleman plays without Derrick Henry, Kyle Hamilton, and Justin Tucker (41 comb. avg.), subbing in Guerendo, Byard, and nobody (theoretically 25-30 avg.). Coleman doesn’t intend to set a full lineup, which is acceptable because the difference between finishing first and second is mostly pride, which Coleman waved bye-bye to along with his first-round pick. At least Tucker can’t miss any kicks for you this week. I’m not sure which position I would roll without in Coleman’s position. If it were his TE on bye, that would be in consideration along with K and IDP. I would probably start a K because I’m (falsely) confident I can find a 10-point kicker compared to a 10-point IDP or TE. More tangents: I think the power of the IDP was slept on during this year’s trade deadline. Zack Baun is 3rd in FP among all IDPs. Did anyone ask Evan about him? Nakobe Dean is 9th, but he’s still on the worst team in our league. I would gladly have moved Budda Baker, who’s 11th, and you can usually get these guys for cheap. Then again, we only had four buyers this year, two of them are fairly loaded at IDP, and one did buy an elite DL. I guess we did good. Still, Coleman probably gave up enough to be able to throw Maxx Crosby in the Achane/Evans deal. I refuse to give my blessing to “TJ time.”
Corey plays without McLaurin and Rhamondre, who open two flex spots, and he plays without Pittman and Hunter Henry, who average the most points among Corey’s bench players the last three weeks. Mooney was rock-solid for ten weeks, but lately he’s been hurt and Kirk Cousins has been trash. Pacheco is probably back to lead-back duties after STA crapped out last week. Let’s continue to emphasize the compounding interest of securing that first overall pick. Corey’s all “look at all my injured players” and he’s practically retained his whole roster on his way to the playoffs. I’ll take a moment here to recognize the brilliance of the McCaffrey trade. The thing that always made sense was being afraid he would get hurt again. He’s low-key old, he’s been diagnosed with bilateral tendonitis, he’s been overworked his whole career, and he plays in the most injury-prone style of offense. I still would have taken the 2nd and run, but I can’t argue with any move that leads to the playoffs. I can argue with sitting on your #1 waiver with Guerendo available, but I can also see why you’d bail on the whole 49ers thing for the year to protect your mental health.
Sean plays without Ka’imi, who we all know is the straw that stirs the drink.
Cameron plays without Bo and Marcus, but Bryce Young has actually outscored Bo Nix since in the two weeks since the Panthers’ bye, and in those two weeks he’s played the Chiefs and Bucs, who allowed Young and Nix almost the exact same scores this year (19 and 27 respectively). It’s a wash, but it’s an interesting detail.
Oliver’s lineup is real messy without Mixon, Robinson, Sutton, Lutz, and Bonitto because he acquired too many players at the deadline to make the necessary cuts. He can cut Corum, but with a playoff spot locked up, there might be more value in adding a potential league-winner (lottery ticket) than starting a kicker.
Oliver has (annoyingly) told me that he wants to bench his whole team in protest of a cash game where he doesn’t get to pick anything (I’ll leave it to his therapist to sort out how this behavior grants him control that he feels he’s losing with the baby on the way), and I told him that I need him to win in order to improve my chances of making the playoffs. And he told me that he thinks his taking the L would help because it improves my chance of winning. Then we agreed I would try to lay it out here, in the note.
Starting from absolute scratch, six teams are going to win, and six teams are going to lose. If Oliver tanks it, then essentially six teams are going to win, and five teams are going to lose. Oliver says this improves my chance of winning, which is true. If it were a win-and-in scenario for me, I’d buy that this helps me. But I need teams to lose. My ideal scenario is that I win, and the other five wins go to teams that have either clinched or been eliminated. Since Oliver has clinched, a win for him is closer to my ideal scenario. I believe Spencer and Brian will lose due to lack of talent. So Oliver’s loss would lock up three losses, leaving just three losses for the four teams that, in my ideal scenario, would lose. I believe there is only one case where Oliver tanks and I benefit: where he would have outscored me, but instead I finish exactly sixth, with three of Shelby, Corey, Max, and Cameron behind me. That’s a razor thin margin with only three losses unaccounted for. I believe there are more cases where Oliver wins and I benefit. Any case where Oliver wins and I outscore him benefits me. I believe Sean, Shelby, and Coleman will lead the league in scoring this week, meaning if Oliver and I both win, there is only one win left for the three teams I’d then need to lose, and I don’t even need Cameron to lose; I just need to score more points than him. Either Evan, Kennedy, or Cam could take that sixth spot.
Now, I can’t get any deeper in the weeds of how Oliver could help me. I’m not asking for help. I’m anti-collusion. I’m just trying to build the argument against Oliver’s claim that his tanking would benefit me. I’ll also say I don’t care about most rules, but I care about not giving away free wins. And this is me, the guy starting Jameis as a bit who is just as surprised as you that it’s actually working. If Oliver were doing this to secure a specific playoff spot, force a specific Round 1 matchup, I’d probably be good with it, if the logic were sound. That’s playing the game. All I care about is playing the game. But Oliver specifically said this was in protest of the cash game, which, please. Cash games don’t require that you choose something. That’s never been an expectation. Get your head out of your ass and set your lineup. I am a little sad that it won’t be a full lineup, but I’ll take what I can get. But also, you’re annoying for trading for a bloated roster a second season in a row.
Let’s double-down on this digression to discuss how to build a playoff roster. While it might seem optimal to have as many good players as possible, you want to be sure your best players are in your lineup. This becomes more complicated when you have competition. You’re better off having starters and backups. This is the time of year when you finally want backups at QB (mind you, the best time to get that backup was two weeks ago), TE, even IDP if you really like someone and don’t want to deal with the analysis paralysis in the postseason. It’s also time to get insurance as opposed to prospecting. This is assuming you’re making the playoffs. If you’re missing the playoffs, prospect away. Fill up on potential keepers. Oliver gets a little credit for trading away Ladd McConkey. His roster isn’t as bloated as it was last year, but it’s bad enough to complicate start/sit decisions.
Packers aren’t as good as their 9-3 record, but the match up well with the Lions. All this does is further incentivize the Lions to play ball-control. Fewer plays for the Packers’ offense should mean fewer explosives against an injury-riddled Lions defense. Most of the Lions’ injuries are to the front seven, where they essentially have two and a half starters healthy. This leads one to imagine Josh Jacobs getting to the second level over and over again and the Packers easily punching runs in at the goal line if/when they get there. But it also means the Lions probably can’t get pressure without blitzing, which is why they would concern themselves with limiting explosive via limiting total opportunities. Still, I picked up Christian Watson because I believe he will see enough one-on-one opportunities to get open for multiple deep bombs and connect on at least one. Only time will tell whether I have the nerve to move on this assumption. It all depends what the Lions do with their safeties, either of whom can play any assignment from any alignment. The Lions are fourth in the league in blitz rate, which emboldens me a little more to bet on just one deep safety, but Jordan Love is one of the worst QBs in the league under pressure this year, but a blitz doesn’t necessarily result in a pressure. And Jordan Love is among the league-leaders in throwing TDs against the blitz. I don’t care about Love’s efficiency. I care about Christian Watson’s ceiling.
The Lions are maybe better than their 11-1 record since the one was a 4-point loss to the Bucs where the Lions’ three fourth-quarter drives (all into scoring range) were two turnovers on downs and an interception. The Lions’ only issue is that they are so good that opponents are at, like, max gas to play them, and the Lions are just banged up enough to let these inferior teams hang around. The Bears should have taken them to OT. The Bears. This week, if they’re playing ball-control and running their typical number of plays, their pass:run ratio would be somewhere between 25:35 and 30:40. Last week it was 33:36, but Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled right before halftime and only got two carries in the second half. One aspect of meat-headery that Dan Campbell can’t quit is he doesn’t actually play ball-control. He insists on staying aggressive, staying juiced for all four quarters. So while the Lions lead the league in points, they are league-average in plays per drive and outside the top five in time of possession. So if they don’t break tendency there, that raises the ceiling for Goff and Jameson. But I think the late scare against a division foe with the Vikings just one game back will give the Lions a little jolt, bring them to their senses and convince them to take control of this game, the division, and their season.
Fantasy angle: expect the run. I wouldn’t count on more than one passing TD for each team, and I would count on 30 carries for each team. I would count on the Lions to exploit Jaire Alexanders’ absence and take advantage of the two rookies in the secondary. Big Amon-Ra game, big Tim Patrick game. LaPorta is the low-hanging threat for the Packers to neutralize. Packers will run, run playaction crossers, and take deep shots down the seam whenever the Lions blitz a safety. High ceilings for Tucker Kraft and Christian Watson. Jayden Reed will have to break tackles to break off a big run. More likely he gets seven catches for 70 yards. Mixed bag from Love. Depends whether the deep shots get all the way in the end zone, as the Packers should be able to run it in from close range. Josh Jacobs leads all scorers in this one.
Trevor is out for the year, and the Jags turn to Mac Jones. The tank is on, and it’s Tank Bigsby time. There is no point making Etienne play hurt anymore. Maybe you do it for the optics, maybe he’s the one pushing to play and the team has to respect it, but it’s getting to be that time for eliminated teams to shut their best players down. The Jags might have a lame-duck head coach and GM running things right now. We can’t be sure. There were enough injuries this season that ownership could give them a pass. But with a remaining schedule of Titans, Jets, Raiders, Titans, Colts, the optics are going to be so bad when they lose most of those games.
I can’t even imagine the Jags winning this week. I can’t make the argument. Will Levis would have to throw multiple picks, which he does from time to time, but that wouldn’t be enough. The Titans would have to let Mac Jones and Tank Bigsby tag team for 350 yards. That’s not happening. The Titans’ coaching is too good. I don’t know what happened in the Commanders’ game, but I know Tennessee rebounded after allowing four touchdowns in the first 20 minutes. It was the only bad defensive game for the Titans this year (though the Bills and Lions games weren’t great, the Titans just don’t have a roster capable of competing with those teams). The Jags have the literal worst defense in the league. Will Levis doesn’t have to throw TDs, but he will. Tony Pollard doesn’t have to break a huge run, but he will. Nick Folk doesn’t have to continue being nails at age 40, but he will. The Jags don’t have to fire their coach and GM after this game… and they probably won’t unless there’s some kind of incident. Maybe they fire the defensive coordinator. If Levis throws three TDs, they have to fire the defensive coordinator. It would be Levis’s first three-TD game since his debut, when he threw four TDs in a wild game against the Falcons, whose defense was coached by… the current Jags’ DC. Can’t make this stuff up.
Fantasy angle: Mac Jones gets sacked three or four times and throws a pick, completes 30 passes for 200 yards unless he hits a deep shot to Thomas. I like the Titans’ pass rush and secondary too much to bet on that. Washington, Thomas, and Engram combine for 20 catches for 150 yards. The RBs and backup TEs get the other 10 for 50. Will Levis throws three TDs, one to Westbrook-Ikhine, two to Ridley to satisfy the revenge game narrative. Levis gets sacked four time per game, making Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker good streams. The only issue is that if the Titans jump put to an early lead, and the Jags don’t answer, the Titans won’t have to put Levis in his usual come-from-behind mode. The Jags’ QBs get sacked twice per game, but neither Danielle Hunter nor Will Anderson touched them last week. To be clear: you can come up empty betting on sacks. It’s a smash spot for the Jags’ pass-rushers, but it depends on the Jags’ offense putting points on the board. The best chance the Jags have is to relentlessly pepper Roger McCreary, the Titans’ slot corner who should be benched he’s been so terrible, but they have no backup for the position. The Titans are low-key shockingly devoid of talent on both sides of the ball. It is what you should expect when you trade AJ Brown for Treylon Burks straight-up, let Derrick Henry walk in free agency, don’t develop Malik Willis, etc. Plus they spent big money on L’Jarius Sneed, who has been hurt most of the year. Bad GM moves for sure, but they have good coaches. They are playing better than the sum of their parts. Ah, fantasy points: Harold Landry is a good bet to get at least one of the four Mac Jones sacks. Coleman drops another stud pass rusher. I really want to start Parker Washington against the dreadful Titans’ nickel, but I’m chicken shit when it comes to chasing WR points. I’m just gonna piss and moan and start my two established starters and get my RB floor and piss and moan when I find out the WR risks would have paid off. As for who gets the Mac Jones interception, I think Darrell Baker. It’s his third year in the league, and he hasn’t picked off a pass yet. He’s played well enough the last two years to deserve one, so here ya go!
Finding out now that it’s going to rain during this game, so it might just be an ugly 13-3 affair with little to no fantasy angle.
Jets fans thought Aaron Rodgers’ injury ten seconds into last season was a bad as things could get, yet here we are. The Jets are 3-9, having just lost coming out of their bye week. There is no worse sign of organizational failure than losing the game coming out of your bye. You have twice as much time (compared to both your usual routine and to your opponent) to plan. You can script the entire first half if you want to! Which, the Jets might have. They looked really good to start. They were an endzone misfire—Garrett Wilson had a full quarter of the endzone to himself—from being up 28-7 in the second quarter. On the next play, Rodgers throws the thicc-six to Leo, and the Jets never score again. They lost by 5. That’s fucking wild. They had six drives to score five points. They ran 28 plays for 127 yards, and their “best” drive, the deepest they drove, was 13 plays for 38 yards to get it all the way to the Seahawks’ 34… Woof.
The Dolphins are good again. They had a terrible time playing in freezing weather, but they’re back in Miami this week, where the temp will be 77. Warm enough that Rodgers’ bones might not creak loud enough for the parabola mic to pickup. Tua is on a tear since deciding to risk his life for a shot to go .500 this year. If you extrapolate his last six games to a full season, he’d have 4,600 yards, 37 TDs, and 3 INTs. Tua is playing like a top-six fantasy QB. Waddle, Jonnu, and STA are each averaging double-digits, with Jonnu leading. I don’t know how much pride the Jets have. Maybe they lay down and let the Dolphins steamroll them. But maybe the return of CJ Mosley as their signal caller, best tackler, and best cover LB, maybe that not only solves the Jonnu problem but sparks the Jets to be at least a facsimile of what they were the last few years. If it were me, if I were eliminated from the playoffs and I had a chance to eliminate a division rival (pretty close anyway, knocking the Fins down to 5-8, three games out of the final wild card spot with just four games left), I would play this like the Super Bowl, the last dance, whatever. Add this to the fire: the last time these teams played, Miami won 30-0. AND the Jets are not mathematically eliminated. If they win and the Chargers lose, they stay alive for one more week.
And you know who else is coming back this week to save the Jets’ season? Allen Lazard, baby. I’m only half-joking, maybe even only a quarter. Lazard is a legit starter, averaging his career-high in yards per game, just under 60, and he continues to be the team’s leader in receiving TDs despite missing the last five games. He’s also the team leader in yards per catch. And if he can save the Jets’ season, just think what he can do for you!
What about the RBs in this matchup? In the past two weeks, the Jets held Jonathan Taylor to 57 yards on 24 carries and Ken Walker to 49 yards on 16 carries. Neither did anything as a pass catcher. It was Taylor’s second-worst game of the year and Walker’s worst. De’Von Achane has been pretty fucking terrible running the ball the past month, but he’s made up for it as a receiver. I feel like the Jets have what it takes to mitigate that, but it depends where they focus their attention. I would consider it a win if Tua had to check it down to his RB. Breece Hall is hurt, and for some reason the Jets, even when they’re winning, their pass:run ratio is 3:2. That’s disgusting.
So maybe they break tendency since their plans are failing, but assuming they stick to what Aaron Rodgers wants, I don’t want the Dolphins LBs. I want a DL or DB. Zach Sieler is a force on all downs, and I imagine Jalen Ramsey will see a lot of action shadowing Davante Adams. I think the Dolphins will get the ball out fast this week. They suffered five sacks last week, and the Jets’ strength is their pass-rush. So I don’t want Jets’ pass-rushers. I want Jets LBs who are breaking on those quick passes.
(UPDATE: I’m not going to edit, but Breece Hall will not play, and CJ Mosley is out for the year. The Jets will probably lose again and start shutting everybody down for the year. It’s going to be Tyrod time.)
Kirk Cousins revenge game! Bijan Robinson against an impenetrable run front, the same impenetrable run front that just allowed 150 rushing to the Cardinals. It’ll be interesting to see how Cousins handles the heavy blitzing. He was taking multiple sacks per game for weeks until last week, then he started throwing picks instead. It appears this offense cannot stand up to a good defense, but it’s unclear whether the Vikings have a good defense. They have an aggressive defense. They force turnovers. But they also allow points to good offenses. 27 to the new Bears, 30 to the Rams, 31 to the Lions, 29 to the Packers. But it’s unclear whether the Falcons are a good offense. These two teams are slated to make the playoffs, and the state of the NFC is that neither of them could beat an AFC playoff team.
The Falcons have been bad on defense 11 of 12 games, but the one outlier was last week against the Chargers, so maybe they just really knew the Chargers cold with two weeks’ prep, maybe the Chargers aren’t able to keep drives alive without JK Dobbins breaking off explosive runs every four carries, maybe the Falcons are good now? No, definitely not the last one. They suck. That game against the Chargers was wack. Sam Darnold and the Vikings’ offense are heating up again. He’s thrown two touchdowns and zero interceptions in each of their last three games, all three against better defenses than Atlanta’s. Chalk Darnold up for another 20 FP, and expect the TDs to go to Addison.
I expect Kirk to succumb to the pressure but go back to taking the sack. I expect Bijan to carry the ball 15 times for 45 yards, hopefully break away on a screen pass or something, though the Vikings swallow those up with Van Ginkel and Greenard. I won’t start Kyle Pitts, but I will live in fear that this becomes one of his random spike weeks. I would start Drake London. Almost did, in fact, before we agreed the post-deadline trade was out of bounds. I’m mostly chasing the 16 targets he got last week. I don’t believe he’ll have more than 10 targets this week, but it feels, um… dense to bench a guy getting that kind of attention (I say having recently added Elijah Moore and his 14 targets from last week then dropping him for a RB no one had ever heard of until a week ago).
Falcons IDPs: just say no.
Drew Lock starts again for the Giants, so I am starting the Saints defense in my other league. I expect the Saints to hound Lock’s shit and get sacks and force turnovers and hopefully even score a TD like the Cowboys did on Thanksgiving. That was great. It was a truly unforgivable mistake by Lock to try throw a touch pass with an unblocked defender two feet away from him, between him and the intended receiver. Just dumb and bad and obviously a pick-six because the defender was already running toward the endzone with everybody behind him when Lock let the ball go. One nice thing about Lock: he peppers Malik Nabers and ignores Wan’Dale Robinson. He also runs well (57 yards and a TD in that game), but since you’d never start him, it just further diminishes the appeal of the surrounding cast. I still like Tyrone Tracy. The Saints built their whole line out of pass-rushers, I guess expecting to always be in the lead? I don’t know. Either it was a dumb idea or they can’t scout. I’m curious to see how much the Saints’ offense relies on Taysom Hill. Obviously other people move the ball. Obviously Kamara is their best player. But they’ve only won games where Taysom has started and finished the game.
The Saints are weird because they have good yardage and a low turnover rate, yet they don’t score points. Probably has something to do with losing all of their good players except Kamara. Still, they are a legit franchise, and the Giants are not. The Giants are literally last in scoring. They are bottom-five in yards. But they’re top-12 in plays run and time of possession. So they are doing the least efficient thing possible. If you’re not gonna score, you want to waste as little time as possible. That’s all they’re doing is wasting time, and it’s a waste of my time to break it down since the Giants probably don’t intend to play offense or defense this week anyway.
Program alert: Bobby Okereke will not play this week. For the first time in two years, Kennedy might be completely without Bobby Time.
The Panthers have been feisty but still losing. The Eagles have been dominant, winning every game since their Week 5 bye, most recently beating the Ravens by multiple scores (the Ravens close the gap to 5 points as time ran out). Before the Ravens game, they held seven teams under 300 yards of offense, including the Bengals, Commanders, and Rams. This is, of course, the Bucs’ fault. They spaaanked the Eagles right before their bye and forced the Eagles to reinvent themselves on both sides of the ball. The Eagles would be nothing if not for the Bucs. The Bucs almost lost to the Panthers, but I don’t want to talk about that, now or ever. The Eagles are going to dominate the Panthers because the Panthers don’t do anything special on either side of the ball, and I think the Panthers are now fully deflated after nearly rallying to beat the Bucs in OT and then watching Chuba fumble it away. I like to imagine their was this shared vision the Panthers concocted during their bye week, where at 3-7, having won two straight, they’d take the league by storm and scam the NFC South title away from three other teams playing hot potato with it. They narrowly lost to the Chiefs, who they didn’t expect to beat, not really, but the Bucs, hey, that’s a team we can go toe-to-toe with. Our head coach knows their whole system. Aaand we’re dead. Season over. If we can’t beat the weirdly bad 11-1 Chiefs and the Bucs seemingly simming their defensive snaps, what hope do we have against maybe the best team in the league, for sure top three?
None. No chance. Don’t get involved. I’m seriously debating benching Chuba this week, not because the Eagles are so good, but because the season is that over. But I imagine Canales will give Chuba a nice workload to show him solidarity following the game-losing fumble. It’s not your fault dude. You’ve been good the entire time we’ve been sucking. We can’t possibly be mad that you sucked for exactly one play all year.
Saquon might break the single-game rushing record this week. If he’s going to break it this year, this would be the game. As improved as the Panthers are, they have no shot of holding the Eagles under 24 points, especially with DeVonta Smith back; the Eagles might actually try to get more than 200 passing yards. They’ve maxed out at 206 since he went down.
Jameis, set me free. Work your magic on my heart. Lead my team where they are supposed to go. We will follow. Take us into battle against the defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. We trust in you.
Should be a slightly better setting for fantasy points than the Snowglobe Bowl of two weeks ago. It’s worth mentioning that both of these teams were involved in shootouts last week, granted Browns-Broncos was kind of a self-inflicted shootout. The Browns lost by 9, but reverse the pick-sixes and you not only take away 14 of the Broncos’ points, you add at least 6 for the Browns, a 20-point swing that sees the Browns win by double-digits. That’s not at all how reality works, but you know what, Jameis Winston isn’t all that concerned with reality. He’s concerned with loving every minute of life and playing the heroest hero ball the world has ever seen. He has prayed out loud for deliverance from pick-sixes, but we’ll see. Seeing how pass-heavy the Browns have been and how often Jameis has thrown into those tight windows, I would be willing to take a chance on Minkah Fitzpatrick or Joey Porter Jr. The Steelers’ defense has the fewest missed tackles and the most takeaways. It is a bad week to need Jameis Winston to deliver. Still, we stan.
The Steelers get Alex Highsmith back. This puts them at full strength on defense, and Highsmith lines up across from the Browns’ backup—nope, sorry—fourth string left tackle. The Browns threw two blockers at TJ Watt almost every play of their previous game. If they try again, Highsmith is going to have a huge fantasy day. Myles Garrett had three sacks in the first half of the snow game, zero in the second, so you’d expect the Steelers to have it more figured out for the full contest this time.
I don’t know what happened with Nick Chubb last week. He sat for basically the whole third quarter. He is definitely missing that top-end breakaway speed, that home run threat, so the Browns are probably going to use more Jerome Ford to increase their odds of getting an explosive run. Ford is also getting all of the obvious passing downs. It’s tough to trust Chubb for more than like 10 points.
George Pickens got hurt in practice on Friday. If he doesn’t play, it’s going to be a monster Mike Williams week.
The Raiders’ defense has the fewest takeaways this season. In twelve games, they have intercepted five passes, forced one fumble, and recovered zero fumbles. They haven’t forced a turnover in three weeks. The Raiders’ offense has the most giveaways this season. They have turned the ball over at least once in every game. They have the worst rushing offense in the league, the only team in the league with fewer than 1,000 rushing yards. They need 63 rushing yards to finally get there this week. Their head coach wants them to run the football, and they may have finally figured out how to do that. Last week, their RBs rushed for 103 yards, the first time this year the Chiefs have allowed a group of RBs to do that. It’s the most rushing yards the Chiefs have given up since they faced the Ravens in Week 1.
The Bucs are kind of good at limiting turnovers, and they’re kind of good against the run. Because these mediocre teams keep getting Chiefs primers right before they face the Bucs, we get these hungry, confident underdogs and end up needing to play it like a playoff game. It’s building good habits for the Bucs should they work their way into the playoffs, but it’s making our schedule tougher than it appears on paper. I hope the Bucs have reflected on the fact that they kind of tried to coast through the Panthers game and they should come into this game ready to get punched in the mouth. Baker took too many sacks last week. Luckily we only saw Kyle Trask for a couple plays. The Raiders are below league average at getting sacks and pressure, but they’re better than the Panthers.
I really don’t know if the Bucs are good or not. I know they’re not bad. I’m pretty sure the Raiders are bad. I’m pretty sure if we can shut down Brock Bowers, their run game and Jakobi Meyers can’t kill us.
NFC West division games rarely make sense, but Seahawks game are by far the most detached from reality. They are the only team that has both scored and allowed a kick return TD this season. They are the only team to gain over 500 yards against the Lions this year, practically the only team over 400, and they still lost that game by 13. Last week’s Jets game, not just the 95-yard TD by their 300-pound lineman but the whole game. They’re bad at running the ball, they’re bad at stopping the run, but if they can win against the Cardinals this week, they are probably going to win their division. In true Seahawks fashion, it’s going to come down to Week 18 against the Rams in LA, and it’s going to be a special teams blunder that seals it, but it’s happening.
All this to say I’m not guessing this game. I think the Cardinals are sound—not good, but sound—defensively. I think they are sporadic offensively, mostly because they need the run to work for anything else to open up. The WRs cannot win on their own, which is why the Cardinals cannot win close games and why Kyler Murray appears to fall apart toward the end of games. Trey McBride can get open for the first seven drives, but on that eighth and final drive, the defense is going to take that away and force one of the other guys to win, and they can’t. Even MHJ’s TD last week wasn’t a win on the route. The DB got his hand in the way, he just somehow completely whiffed. As much as I’ll probably regret saying this, I think the Seahawks are figuring everything out on defense, and they will avoid getting steamrolled by the Cards on the ground, and JSN will work the soft spots of the Cards’ zone defense, and there won’t be much here for fantasy unless you’re into Chad Ryland or Jason Myers.
Could be a shootout, could be a Bills’ blowout, cannot in any universe be a Rams’ blowout. There is really no logical way it can even be a Rams’ win. They can’t play defense. They have held just two teams under 20 points this year, the Raiders and Saints, probably only because Minshew and Taysom got hurt in those games. They let the Patriots score 22. They let the Shane Waldron Bears score 24. They were the defense that let Kyler score 40 and convinced Sean to give up a 3rd for him! They absolutely suck on defense.
BUT the Bills next game after this is at Detroit, so this is a classic trap game. The Bills know the Rams suck, they know it’ll be easy, they’d rather focus on a team they might meet in the Super Bowl aaaand they’re dead. They don’t wake up until the second half, they press too hard, and they lose, and the Rams stay alive in their division and people think McVay is a god and so on, the Bills are frauds, whatever. No, nothing that serious. Just a classic trap game. If only this were a playoff game for us because we need a Josh Allen trap game to take Sean down (lucky for us his two MD playoff games are division games against supposedly trash opponents so fingers crossed).
Um so for fantasy I would be willing to start all the Rams’ receivers, but I wouldn’t be willing to start Stafford, and the reason is that I think he’ll take sacks and throw picks, so I would be betting on him throwing three TDs to balance that out for a good fantasy day. But the yards and first downs will be there for the receivers and maybe Kyren. Not totally sold on lil’ ‘ren as a timeshare lead against a solid run front.
Totally sold on James Cook taking one 50 yards every game this year. Also sold on having no fucking idea which Bills will score a receiving TD now that Allen is scoring them himself. So I would flex any of them but expect nothing. It’s called desperation.
Start a Bills’ defender. Rousseau and Milano are the tops, but there are others.
The 49ers are giving up, right? They’re packing it in. No Aiyuk, no McCaffrey (not even Mason), and now no Trent Williams (temporary, but if they lose again and want him back next year…? But also maybe he retires?), they’re cooked, right? Cooked enough to lose to the Bears, something no team has done since Week 6. (Wow, I did not remember the Bears being 4-2 before their bye week. What a weird way to suck.) Kyle Shanahan is on record believing that only a handful of teams are actually competing for the Super Bowl each year; he’s also a card-carrying nihilist; there’s no fucking way he believes this team can compete for the Super Bowl, so I very much doubt he will be going hard trying to eke out a comeback in the division. The 49ers are 5-7, and they’re going to lose to the Lions down the road, so that’s eight losses. This is essentially a playoff game, so we’ll see how they handle it. I think the Bears are incapable of winning. I don’t necessarily think they are a bad team. But they are so poorly run and have cut so much staff and are basically at the mercy of their players’ emotions, so I think they’re incapable of winning, especially against a well-run organization that could probably win this game in their sleep. Like Shanahan could just go in order straight down the playsheet without any thought given to situation or tendency or anything and still score 24 on this team. And the pressure that the 49ers’ defense can put on Williams, who is responsible for his own sacks more often than any other QB… it’s going to be bad for the Bears. Probably good for fantasy. Probably like the Lions game: a lot of passing (Swift and Roschon are hurt), a lot of fighting from behind. It all depends whether the 49ers want to Cardi B that clock or not.
George Kittle remains an elite fantasy TE. The rest of this situation is highly questionable. Fred Warner is playing on a broken ankle? Nick Bosa is playing through I think it’s torn love handles? Like, they’re calling it a hip/oblique, what else could it be?
The thing we all want to know is whether Isaac Guerendo is going to win people leagues. He fits the bill of a league-winning fantasy player, a fresh-legged RB for a good offense who someone got fo’ free late in the year? Check, check, check. Good thing Corey fell asleep at the wheel and let him slip to Coleman.
Two or three years ago this would have about the Herbert-Mahomes duel. But now it’s about these defenses. Which defense will force more punts and turnovers. Who will win the field position battle? Or the refs will get involved early, get the defenders to take two steps back at all times, and we’ll see fireworks from all parties involved. I would start anyone but the Chargers RBs, and listen, I might start Vidal because he has wheels. He could break a huge run. But that’s not enough in a Week 14 melee with my personal season on the line. But Hopkins, Kelce, Worthy, Gray, Pacheco, McConkey, QJ, Palmer, Dissly, sign me the fuck up. Sign me, the fuck-up.
The Chiefs will win like they always do. It will be close, and it will be because the moment gets too big and the Chargers screw up.
I want to believe any NFL team can win any game, especially at home. All it takes is one or two costly errors. The Cowboys can get pressure on Burrow and strip the ball or force an errant pass. Burrow is incredible at buying time in the pocket, but it cost him against the Steelers. Those second efforts by Watt were the difference in the game, and Micah Parsons has that. But do the Cowboys have enough else? The Steelers’ line is stacked. The Cowboys line is deep. Deep enough that the right rotation could lead to dominant wins for guys like Carl Lawson and Osa Odighizuwa. The Bengals will be without their starting LT, and the backup options are awful.
The Bengals also have to start Cade York at kicker, and while kicker doesn’t matter, it’s a thin line where it doesn’t matter as long as they don’t totally suck, and Cade York has totally sucked since becoming a pro. Bad kicking leads to fewer points and worse field position. It’s a killer. And even avoiding kicking can be a killer if you’re also not converting your fourth downs and two-point attempts. It just forces Burrow to be even sharper, which we love for fantasy. We love that Burrow will have in mind that there are no guaranteed points if he doesn’t lead touchdown drives. That’s amazing motivation for someone who feeds off that pressure.
The Cowboys’ offense is weird and ugly, but it’s truly not bad. The first Cooper Rush game against the Eagles was bad, but now we know the Eagles are the best team in the league, so it doesn’t look all that bad. The past three Cowboys’ games, the offensive numbers are normal. The games themselves are not normal, especially not the win over Washington, but a casual observer would never know that this was supposed to be a joke of an offense. The Bengals’ defense is bad. Russell Wilson just threw for 400 yards against them. Cooper Rush can manage a game where his offense compiles 300 yards and 20-something points, which is why if the defense can muster a turnover or two, the Cowboys can win this game and end the Bengals’ playoff hopes.
Because the Bengals at 4-8 need to win out and they need one of the Broncos or Chargers to lose three more games.
Okay, thanks for indulging me. Let’s get to what you came for.
Clinched Bye
1. Coleman: 9-4, 2122.95
2. Sean: 9-4, 2065.16
Clinched Playoffs
3. Kennedy: 8-5, 1907.64
4. Oliver: 8-5, 1821.1
The Bubble
5. Corey: 7-6, 1800.3
6. Max, 6-7, 2016.05
7. Shelby: 6-7, 1870.23
8. Doak: 6-7, 1814.56
9. Cam: 6-7, 1808.68
Chance at a Pick Ladder Bye
10. Evan: 5-8, 1825.56
Dead, But Not Last?
11. Brian: 4-9, 1844.67
12. Spencer: 4-9, 1680.99
Coleman:
+57.79 over Sean
Sean:
+157.52 over Kennedy
Kennedy:
+86.54 over Oliver,
+107.34 over Corey
Oliver:
+20.8 over Corey
Corey:
-215.75 to Max
-69.97 to Shelby
-14.26 to Doak
-8.38 to Cameron
Max:
+145.82 over Shelby
+190 over Evan
+200 over Doak, Cam
Shelby:
+44.67 over Evan
+55.67 over Doak
+61.55 over Cam
Doak:
-11 to Evan
+5.88 over Cam
Cameron:
-16.88 to Evan
Evan:
-19.11 to Brian
+144.57 over Spe
Brian:
+163.68 over Spe
Big Picture:
Coleman and Sean have clinched the top two seeds (and first-round byes) unless Kennedy can outscore Sean by 157.53.
Highest seeds play lowest seeds each round of playoffs, and we reseed, meaning there is no “bracket;” highest seed continues to play lowest seed.
Corey and Max control their own destiny: win and in. Either can lose and still sneak in. Either can lose and finish as low as 9th, missing out on even a pick ladder bye. Corey can get as high as 3rd, but it’s very unlikely.
Shelby, Cam, and Doak each need to win and to see a loss from either Corey or Max.
7th and 8th seeds mean a pick ladder bye, guaranteed top-4 pick in next year’s draft.
Sadly, sleeper doesn’t support head-to-head tiebreakers. It’s straight points.
Coleman clinches if:
Coleman wins and Sean loses, OR
Coleman maintains points lead
Sean clinches if:
Sean wins and Coleman loses, OR
Sean overcomes points deficit
Kennedy clinches if:
Kennedy wins and maintains points lead, OR
Oliver loses
Oliver clinches if:
Oliver wins, Kennedy loses, OR
Oliver wins and overcomes points deficit
Corey clinches if:
O & K lose, Corey wins and overcomes
Kennedy if:
Kennedy loses, Oliver wins; OR
Kennedy and Oliver win, Oliver overcomes; OR
O & K lose, Corey wins and overcomes
Oliver if:
Oliver wins, Kennedy wins and maintains; OR
Kennedy wins, Corey loses; OR
Corey wins, Oliver loses but maintains
Corey if:
Oliver loses, Corey wins and overcomes
O wins, K loses, Corey wins and overcomes K
Kennedy if:
K loses, O wins, and Corey overcomes
Oliver if:
O loses, Corey wins and overcomes
Corey if:
Corey wins, O & K win and maintain; OR
Corey, Max, and Shelby lose, AND
Corey maintains over Doak and Cam
Max if:
Max wins, Corey loses
Shelby if Shelby wins AND:
Corey, Max, Doak, and Cam lose; OR
Shelby wins, Corey and Max lose, AND
Shelby maintains over Doak and Cam
Doak if:
D wins, Cam, Cor, Max, and Shelb lose; OR
D wins, Cor, Max, and Shelb lose, AND
D maintains over Cam
Cam if:
The same shit, but with Cam instead of D
Corey if Corey loses AND:
three of Max, Shelby, Doak, Cam lose
Max if:
Max wins, Corey wins
Max loses, Shelby, Cam, and Doak lose
Shelby if Shelby wins AND:
Corey or Max lose, AND
Shelby maintains over Doak and Cam; OR
Corey and Max lose, AND
Doak or Cam overcomes
Doak if Doak wins, AND
two of Max, Corey, Shelby lose; AND
Doak maintains over Cam; OR
Max or Cor lose, Doak overcomes Shelby
Cam if Cam wins, Max loses AND:
Cam overcomes Shelby and Doak; OR
Shelby and Doak lose
Corey if Corey loses AND:
two of Max, Shelby, Doak, Cam win
Max if Max loses AND:
Shelby, Doak, or Cam win
Shelby if Shelby wins AND:
Max and Corey win; OR
Max or Corey win, AND
Doak or Cam win and overcome; OR
Max and Corey lose, AND
Doak and Cam win and overcome
Shelby if Shelby loses and maintains.
Doak if, god, so many things.
Cam, too.
Evan if Evan wins and overcomes Shelby, AND
Shelby, Doak, and Cameron lose
Corey if Corey loses AND:
Three of Max, Shelby, Doak, Cam win
Max if Max loses AND:
Two of Shelby, Doak, Cam win
Shelby if she wins and maintains over Doak or Cameron
Evan if he wins and Doak and Cam lose
Corey if he loses and all four 6-7 teams win
Max if he loses and the three other 6-7 teams win
Shelby if she loses by A LOT and Evan loses
Shelby if she loses by A LOT and Evan wins
Doak, Cam with losses plus an Evan win
Evan if he loses and Brian loses
Brian if he loses and Spencer wins.
Spencer if Spencer loses.
I’m not willing to get more granular than that. Here are my predictions for where people will finish in the melee, followed by the resultant standings.
1. Season 3
Josh Allen in a dome against the Rams… sigh. My hope for Josh Allen, well against Josh Allen, is the Bills are content with winning the division and keep Allen from doing any wild shit until the playoffs. Saquon and Cook both scoring 60-yard TDs every game, sometimes twice a game. Calvin Ridley revenge game. Puka Nacua, Rams’ top target in an uphill climb against the Bills. James Conner or Rico Dowdle? And does it matter? Trey McBride is only the second best TE in fantasy because he doesn’t score TDs. If he had scored just two receiving TDs (not two more, two total), he would be tied with Bowers for first. Bowers, meanwhile, has scored four TDs. Ka’imi Fairbairn and Nick Cross are on bye, which would be huge in a one-on-one matchup against Sean, but this week it just turns the heat down from face-melting to eye-burning. Still got Van Ginkel, Jewell, and Pratt holding it down. (Oh, you better believe I’m salty about giving away my Josey Jewell tip for free. Dude fucking rules.)
2. Ghostface killers
Shelby is right to ride the hot lineup, but with a little uncertainty around Bucky Irving’s health, might we see Rachaad White sneak back into the lineup one more time? If so, who would you start him over? You can’t bench your Bengals. You owe them this game. So it’s down to Najee, DJ, and Pickens. Luckily Pickens and Moore are hurt, too, with Pickens’ injury more likely to keep him out of the game. I would start Chaad. Shelby needs to make a move at TE. Jake Ferguson increases your Monday action and we like the idea of a Bengals-Cowboys shootut. Juwan Johnson is probably going to be the most targeted. Pat Freiermuth keeps your Steelers shares up to the brim. Mike Gesicki makes you a Bengals Platinum member, pretty sure you get the stylish robe and lounge access at that level.
3. Blitz and Chitz
If I’m right about these rankings, then I will miss the playoffs. It’s fine. I’ve been starting Jameis as a bit anyway. I thought I was going to be eliminated weeks ago. But it does hurt a little more getting all the way to the final week. It makes me proud, but that puffed up chest just means there’s more wind to knock out. Max deserves the playoffs. He’s scored more points than anyone but Coleman or Sean. If we all want to see Sean fall, should all want Max in the playoffs.
4. IR Factory
Corey’s roster management drives me absolutely fucking crazy, to the point that I’m pretty sure he does it 10% on purpose. Like he thinks about worrying about it, and then he’s like, nah even if I beef it, it’ll be fun to know Doak’s squirming in his chair about it. Enjoy losing in the first round of the playoffs.
5. Haven’t Learned a Thiiing
This will be the most painful part of missing the playoffs, for sure, that I will get to .500 and it won’t be enough. Letting Jameis down, that’s what’ll finally trigger the waterworks.
6. Fart
Even without a full lineup, Coleman can get to 140 points, especially coming off a couple of down weeks and dealing with the Ravens bye. He’s got some guys who are due. There’s even a chance Ken Walker will be ruled out and allow Coleman the extra spot for a kicker.
7. McManUSuck, Sean
Story of his season: Evan’s lineup is good but not good enough. If Swift is out, Evan better hope Ken Walker is also out, or else he has to resort to starting Travis Homer or a straight-up backup RB.
8. teeny tiny tony
Listen, you start Will Levis in the rain, you only get to finish as high as eighth place. I don’t make the rules.
9. Stickler Meeseeks
I’m cheating a little since at this point the Lions already played and Kennedy’s trio was as bad as they’ve ever been, thanks to Tim Patrick (which, believe me or not, but I made that call on Wednesday). But still good enough to beat the likes of:
10. (ง ͠ಥ_ಥ)ง
Russell Wilson and Alexander Mattison bring the ceiling down, and this team never had a floor. You’re only outscoring Brian and Oliver because Brian’s team is falling apart or on bye and already had two players drop duds, and Oliver isn’t setting a lineup.
11. Wait Till Next Year
I have decided that punishment for finishing in last should be that the loser has to sport a goatee for a week. (Shelby has to either draw or glue one) For some reason I think this experience would flip the switch for Brian. I can’t explain why.
12. Hugh Jackman
Douche.
1. Coleman
2. Sean
3. Kennedy
4. Corey
5. Oliver
6. Max
7. Shelby
8. Doak
9. Cameron
10. Evan
11. Brian
12. Spencer
