Disclaimer: these scenarios are flawed in that they don’t anticipate a significant scoring swing. Like, Corey is currently trailing Shelby by 90 points, so the only way he could lose to her this week and take her playoff spot next week would be to outscore her by 90 + [Week 13 differential] in the melee. Similarly, Sean trails Coleman by 85, Kennedy trails Sean by 130, Oliver and Cameron trail Kennedy by 80+. So in that sense, the scenarios are simplified and not, like, mathematical certainties.
Coleman clinches:
the 1-seed with a win, OR
a bye if Kennedy loses.
Sean clinches:
a top-2 finish with a win, OR
a top-3 finish if Oliver loses.
Kennedy clinches a top-3 finish if:
Kennedy wins, OR
Oliver and Shelby lose.
Oliver clinches a playoff berth with a win.
Shelby clinches a playoff berth if:
Shelby wins, AND
Max and Doak lose.
Cameron clinches a playoff berth if:
Cameron wins, AND
Corey, Max, and Doak lose.
Corey can’t be eliminated this week, but a loss this week would make next week a must-win and a must-score-a-shit-ton.
Max is eliminated if:
Max loses, AND
Cameron wins.
Doak is eliminated if:
Doak loses, AND
Cameron wins.
Brian is eliminated if:
Brian loses, OR
Cameron wins.
Evan is eliminated if:
Evan loses, OR
Max wins.
Spencer is eliminated UNLESS:
Spencer scores 200+ points, AND
Max, Corey, and Cam lose.
Basically if Cameron wins, people die.
My time in the fight comes to an end, but I go out in a blaze of TE bloat.
Jameis Winston is my boy, but he faces the Broncos’ elite defense in Denver on Monday night.
CJ Stroud continues his climb back to the middle with a cake matchup against the Jags.
Chubb faces the elite Broncos, and Chubb frankly has not recovered his burst post-ACL-tear, C.Hubb faces a beatable Bucs defense, but rookie Jonathon Brooks lurks in the shadows.
Montgomery and Gibbs face a once-solid Bears defense that’s fallen apart since their bye week. Montgomery is a little banged up, but Gibbs just picks up whatever Monty drops. Christian McCaffrey faces the Bills in Buffalo in snow, Brock Purdy’s throwing shoulder remains injured, so I have hope he’ll stay under 10 FP for a third straight week.
Tee Higgins faces a Steelers defense who have allowed four 100-yard WRs, seven WR TDs, and no overlap between those two things. Mike Evans faces the Panthers, who were able to force a shootout against the Chiefs, so the upside is high.
Amon-Ra has an above-average matchup against the Bears, so you expect 15-20 there. Nico stacks with Stroud against the Jags, so another 20. Through six players on each side, I’m down about 60 points.
I can start four TEs if I want to, while Kennedy can barely start one. That doesn’t mean anything, but I already achieved the only win in league history with a three-TE lineup, might as well push for the only win in league history with a four-TE lineup. Put together the best games from Taysom, Andrews, LaPorta, and Pitts, and I get 97 points from four players. Hell yeah.
Noah Gray scored 20 FP last week because the Panthers left him completely wide fucking open multiple times, and maybe the Raiders will, too. But the problem is that the Chiefs will be up 21-0 after one quarter and bleed clock for the rest of the game.
Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter combined for five sacks against the most-sacked QB in the league, and their matchup against Trevor Lawrence is not that, not even slightly, to the point that I might ditch the pair and get a couple of Colts’ pass-rushers against Drake Maye and that garbage line. Jon Greenard is coming off a 23-point game against Caleb Williams, so maybe I target Williams again and add a Lions’ pass-rusher in Greenard’s place.
Kennedy tries to put Bobby Time back together again, but what was once broken cannot be made whole again.
Myles Garrett had three sacks in the first half last week against elite sack-taker Russell Wilson. Now he faces Bo Nix, who is elite at avoiding sacks. Among QBs who have started all of their teams games, Nix gets sacked more often than only two other QBs: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
Budda Baker is tied for second in DB points this year, one of only two DBs with 100 tackles, one of only two players with 100 tackles and multiple sacks.
Xavier McKinney is a big-play merchant with half as many tackles as Budda and very poor INT odds against the Dolphins efficient pass attack.
I’m fucked, but it’s fun going through the details and giving myself a little hope. I think Kennedy’s Lions are a lock for 60+ points, but there is enough doubt elsewhere to keep him under 150 for the week. I only scored 150 last week because my IDPs scored 75. So… I’m fucked.
Oliver has leaned on Justin Herbert lately, but the Bears’ new offense might have him reconsidering. Herbert faces the Falcons, an average defense owing to a mix of heroes and zeroes. The Chargers will find the holes in this defense, and without JK Dobbins, they will use Herbert more as a runner. Caleb faces the Lions, whose offense forces shootouts and whose defense is without their starting the best edge rusher, linebacker, and corner. It’s really not clear which way Oliver should go. There is no clear comparison here. Do you prefer the better line and the more experience coaches on the more conservative offense, or do you opt for the more electric players on the more aggressive offense? Which is the more likely shootout?
It matters who you choose because you’re facing Josh Allen off the bye, at home, in the snow, against an undisciplined pass defense. It won’t be a face-melter, that kind of performance will come the next two weeks. But the floor is a solid 25.
Bijan faces the Chargers (maybe having him and Herbert on opposite sides of a potential shootout eases your QB decision: get that guarantee one of their offenses will be on the field for an entire game as opposed to the chance the Lions control TOP against the Bears). Mixon gets the Jags, where you don’t expect a shootout; you expect a heavy rushing attack as the Texans hold a lead throughout. Brian Robinson appeared to suffer a signficant ankle injury, but he’s already back at practice, while Austin Ekeler is definitely out after appearing to lose consciousness after a huge hit last week.
Spencer is down to STA-KC in a timeshare as Pacheco returns, but the hope again is that KC blows out the Raiders, and they don’t put a lot on Pacheco’s plate in his first game back.
You have to start Adams and Sutton, but you don’t have to like it. You might start Keenan Allen, who had 15 targets last week playing through a sprained ankle, but can you bench Kittle or Hockenson for him?
Spencer’s WRs can make or break this game, and we like the matchups for the most part. Tank Dell @JAX, yes. GW vs.SEA, yes. Then you have two flex spots to play with and four intriguing WRs to choose from:
Malik Nabers @DAL could be tough if Diggs is back and Drew Lock is at QB, BUT the Giants should have learned last week that this offense actually moves when it flows through Nabers, and Nabers is always open.
Khalil Shakir vs.SF is another toughie because SF is sound in the middle of the field, and you don’t expect Shakir’s shiftiness to show up in the snow. BUT he leads the team in targets and “stacks” with Allen (in quotes because he doesn’t score TDs).
Rome Odunze @DET is a great matchup because he’ll matchup against Emmanuel Moseley, who is coming back from his second or third devastating knee injury. Odunze is primed for a late-season breakout. He’s getting the snaps and the targets, and the big plays will come. I’d hate to bench Odunze’s potential 20 for Shakir’s probable 10. Your 1% probability of making the playoffs requires a 200-point game. Chase upside.
Xavier Legette vs.TB is a prayer, and it’s lower upside than Dell, GW, Nabers, or Odunze. Don’t do it.
I don’t know what to do with Spencer’s TEs. Kincaid has been bad for fantasy and might not even play this week. Schoonmaker has been good in Jake Ferguson’s stead. No matter what, it’s a huge disadvantage against Kittle and Hockenson.
Oliver might have Nick Bosa, might not. Spencer might start Calais Campbell, might replace him. Wash.
Robert Spillane has fallen off, which was predictable since he’s just not a complete player. Oliver should get more creative with his IDPs like he did with the Nik Bonitto add last week. Josey Jewell vs.TB, Boye Mafe @NYJ, Sexy Dexy or Thibs @DAL, the Colts @NE. And hey, CJ Mosley and Matt Milano return to action this week. Germaine Pratt fell off for a while, but he should get back on track as a run-stuffer and occasional pass-rusher against the Steelers.
Spencer gets Roquan back, Derwin and Dean are solid, no worries there. Spencer has had a tough year, but there’s really nothing keeping them from handing Oliver a season-threatening loss this week.
Doesn’t matter to this matchup at all, but Oliver might have successfully churned Olave into a late keeper. Olave has to return from IR in order for it to come to fruition, which means the Saints (probably) have to win some games.
Corey is going back to the carpet store by starting Jared Goff after what happened last week, and he will fall off that ladder and crack his skull, and the words “GAME OVER” will fill his vision. Goff has everything going for him on paper, but I’m promising it won’t work out. It won’t work out better than what you’ll get from Mahomes against the Raiders and Aidan O’Connell.
Shelby gets her Bengals back, but she probably wishes it was against any team but the Steelers. The bright side is they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game. The downside is that more than half of Shelby’s total output this week comes from this game. In three games since their bye, the Steelers are allowing under 300 yards and under 23 points per game. Their offense is gaining just over 300 yards and scoring just under 23 points per game. If this game totals 600 yards and 46 points, Shelby better hope it’s consolidated among her six offensive players and that Trey Hendrickson can exploit the same weakness Myles Garrett did last week.
I’m not sure it’s worth benching any of them either. You look at Shelby’s bench and you see Rachaad White, who had his ideal gamescript last week and mustered 13 points. Then there’s Waddle: electric, but he’s playing in the snow at Lambeau. Finally, Jaylen Warren, who doubled up Najee Harris’s fantasy production last week while splitting touches right down the middle. But Warren played more snaps, and he returns kicks. Najee’s been terribly inefficient, probably because he’s playing through an ankle injury. I also kind of despise George Pickens. He might be the best ball-winner in the league, but he’s begging to get benched or thrown out of a game because he does a bunch of dumb shit and acts like an asshole. I might say fuck him and start Najee, Warren, and White, but I lose a lot of matchups making my decisions this way.
Corey starts Bucky and Rhamondre, and while Rhamondre hurt him bad last week, I think he has to stick with him when you consider how likely the Colts offense is to turn the ball over against the Pats defense, how likely the Pats are to force-feed Rhamondre as Drake Maye is averaging two turnovers per game since becoming the starter. Bucky is gold. Easy bet for 100 yards and a TD against the Panthers.
Corey also starts JSN, McLaurin, and Meyers, leading their teams in targets. Even with Minshew done for the year, we stick with Meyers because he was money with O’Connell last year. He runs great routes, he has great hands. He put up these numbers with Mac Jones in that god-awful Pats offense. He’s a must-start. Pittman and Mooney are worth considering, but you’re better off avoiding volatility given your opponent this week.
Zach Ertz vs. Brock Bowers shouldn’t even be a discussion, but Ertz has been a focal point of the Commanders offense, while Bowers will be a focal point for opposing defenses going forward. The Chiefs will be especially effective at erasing Bowers from this week’s contest.
Bates vs. Boswell should favor Shelby in a 1:1 sense, but it actually favors Corey because if Boswell is hitting field goals, that means Najee and Warren and Pickens aren’t scoring TDs, AND it means the Bengals aren’t scoring enough TDs to force the Steelers into going for it on fourth down in enemy territory.
This is the IDP matchup of the week. Corey got 17.5 apiece from Parsons and Luvu last week, and they have even better matchups this week. Moehrig had 13 FP last time he faced KC, and Ernie Jones is single-handedly fixing the Seahawks defense. Shelby starts the league’s sack leader Hendrickson, the reigning IDP king Oluokun, the reigning DB king Winfield, and this year’s DB king Alontae.
Corey has good enough players to win a narrow victory, but the matchups and momentum favor Shelby enough that she should continue her miracle run to the postseason.
My guess is Brock Purdy plays, so Sean doesn’t have to suffer another Kyler Murray implosion. Purdy should have a mediocre fantasy game, but the Cardinals should be blown out by the Vikings in Minnesota. The Cards won’t be able to run, and their playaction game will be a disaster when the Vikings send extra men every snap of the second half.
Coleman should start his Vikings. He would have won his matchup starting them last week, and the matchup is just too pure. Arizona won’t move the ball on offense, and they don’t have the personnel on defense to match the Vikings varied looks. Someone will be open on every play, and Darnold should have plenty of time to figure it out. Hurts plays @BAL, who are becoming the elite defense that was promised.
Sean’s ceRBerus faces a Herculean combination of matchups. Conner faces the Vikings, Barkley the Ravens, Cook the 49ers. All three are top-10 run defense. Cook might score his projection because the 49ers have been bad at tackling, but the snow will slow Cook down, and Dre Greenlaw’s return will be a force-multiplier for the 49ers defense.
Coleman’s ceRBerus doesn’t have nice matchups, but there’s nothing threatening. The Eagles haven’t faced a real running game since Week 4. They are in no way ready for Derrick Henry in the snow. Kyren gets a dome game, and Walker gets a Jets defense that just doesn’t have it anymore.
Sean’s most likely leaders in scoring are Puka and Ridley, each averaging over 15 points per game the last five weeks, both with good matchups this week.
Coleman’s starting those Vikings receivers already, which is why he should just start Darnold. The other option is Jauan Jennings, which I don’t hate with Purdy back and the 49ers probably needing to throw to keep up with the Bills. But deciding between Addison and Jefferson right now is a nightmare. I would just protect my sanity and start both.
It took Ka’imi Fairbairn 12 weeks to break the single-season record for 50-yd FGs. It took Justin Tucker 12 weeks to tie his personal record for missed kicks in a single season.
Andrew Van Ginkel is the new TJ Watt. Logan Wilson is the apex version of TJ Edwards. Nick Cross leads all DBs in tackles. Sean needs to replace Jamien Sherwood, as CJ Mosley’s return is going to cut his snaps in half. I’d probably double up on Bengals LBs for the floor, but if you want ceiling, I threw some ideas out there at the end of the Oliver-Spe section.
Coleman should probably replace Edwards with Elliss and look to free agency or trade to upgrade Landry, who, like Edwards, is good not great. There is no such thing as TJ time. Kill that darling.
Lamar faces a strong Philly defense, but the only defense to contain Lamar this season has been the Steelers, and I don’t think Philadelphia can figure it out. Maybe if it were the Super Bowl, if it were the only thing Fangio had to focus on, but in one odd week with a bunch of other games ahead, no chance. Maybe they can keep in the pocket, keep him from scoring more than 30 FP, but when you consider that Lamar’s floor this year was 18 in that Steelers’ game, then you understand why he’s good for 25 this week.
Jayden Daniels faces a Titans defense coached by a guy who spent the last few years in Baltimore. He’ll have a plan to limit those scramble yards, lowering JD’s range to 15-25 FP this week. Enough to give Max at least a slight advantage.
This is an all-time ceRBerus duel: JT, Breece, and Tracy against Jones, Kamara, and Jacobs, all with money matchups. Sadly, Breece might not play, but I don’t think Braelon Allen is a downgrade. He’s big, he’s fast, he can catch. But Brian has so many gamebreaking WRs on the bench, and the Jets are such a dumpster fire, that I could see Brian snubbing Allen if Breece can’t go. Max is locked in to his trio, as you can’t argue in good faith to start Amari Cooper or Jameson Williams over any of them.
Brian’s “starting” McConkey and London, but I think it’s a ruse. I think he’s starting DK and BTJ.
Max is starting Jameson and STA, which I think is necessary since we haven’t seen Amari Cooper prove he’s a major piece of the Bills’ offense yet. His time is coming, but they have no reason to rush it.
Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith face each other in the snow in Lambeau, which favors Kraft. The whole game favors the Packers. Florida teams don’t handle Lambeau well, not without Tom Brady at QB.
Brian is also slated to started Jason Sanders at Lambeau, which he should not do. He should go get Koo or Dicker. Max is sticking with Romo, which he should do. Get you a kicker on a team winning all three phases.
Max should ditch Chris Jones and roll with Hines-Allen in the DL spot for the rest of the year. He should also start Brooks over Bernard this week, as Matt Milano’s return alters Bernard’s role.
Brian should have a massive edge in the IDP scoring if Max keeps his lineup as is. The Brians, EJ Speed, and Al-Shaair are as good as it gets, and they are due for a bounceback after disappointing last week. Brian’s IDPs hitting their collective ceiling would be enough to give him the upset win.
I am toying with the notion that the game of the week has similar power to the commissioner’s jinx, at least that putting Cameron in the GOTW increases his chances of losing.
Baker Mayfield faces the Panthers, so we like that.
Bo Nix faces the Browns, and his worst games have come against aggressive blitzing defenses, so I’m betting on him to hit close to his floor this week. In similar contests this season, Nix has scores of 10, 9, 19, 17, and 19. The trend lets you know he’s gotten good, but still 19 FP shouldn’t cut it against Baker in a plus matchup.
De’Von Achane in the snow sounds terrible, but the rest of Cam’s matchups looks good. Lamb against the tanking Giants, Kupp in a dome, Engram back from bye, probably getting Lawrence back from “injury,” Jeudy revenge game, Aubrey at home in the dome, mmm but then we see the IDPs, and that picture is bleak. Crosby has been neutralized in his last two tries against the Chiefs, Bolton might only get to play 40 snaps in a blowout, Bates needs a turnover to be relevant, and Marcus Jones probably sinks back toward his season average.
D’Andre Swift sucks as a runner, but he rules as a receiver, and the Lions’ LBs can’t cover him. Hopkins gets his five catches for 50 yards and a TD. AJ Brown gets his 10-20 somehow some way. Njoku gets the targets vacated by Cedric Tillman. Marv gets some squeaky wheel treatment. Evan figures something out in lieu of the concussed Ekeler. Hopefully not Javonte Williams. Hopefully Kmet? Gross. But you gotta do something, and it’s hard to see how to can get a trade off between now and an early Thursday game. I’m not crazy about Rousseau, but he has been hot lately, and Evan has the clear IDP advantage otherwise.
Happy Thanksgiving!
