Disclaimer: last night, we experienced a bomb cyclone (exactly as phat as it sounds), and it knocked out our power, so I’m doing this one rapid fire for the sake of keeping some charge for my entertainment devices.
Jayden Daniels faces Dallas, who have been blown out every game since Dak went down. The blowouts have favored the run game, but Daniels is part of the run game. Expect a solid 20 after a couple down weeks.
Lamar faces the Chargers, who looked legit until they allowed 40 FP to Joe Burrow. Granted, it’s Joe Burrow. But this was the first real test for the Chargers’ D, and while they won, they allowed 27 and realistically it was 33 (two missed FGs). Lamar will score 30+.
Brian has no Breece, no London, no BTJ, no Etienne (not that it matters), so his lineup sets itself. Taylor and Tracy at RB; DK, Reed, and Ladd at WR. Without Kamara and Cooper, Max’s lineup is easily set, as well: Jones and Jacobs at RB, Jameson and STA at WR, and twin TEs Otton and Jonnu. Hell yeah, brother. This will be the second time this year Brian has lost to a lineup starting multiple TEs.
Brian has the advantage at IDP, enough to make it a close game, but Max’s IDP group should be on the upswing following a down week.
If it comes down to Jason Sanders vs. John Parker Romo, then Brian has a shot, but since they both get to set full lineups, I think Max survives and Brian becomes the first team eliminated (tied with Spe and probably also me, maybe Evan, too, maybe the bottom four teams right now stay the bottom four teams for the rest of the year).
Note: I didn’t actually remember the name of the apartment Sean and Evan cohabitated in; I just remembered that it translated to “the stain.”
Sean has bounced Evan from the playoffs two years in a row. First, a guy died, so Sean won the championship*. The following year, Evan scored 212, including 40 from Breece Hall, but Sean scored 219, including 53 from Amari Cooper. This year, Sean’s ending Evan’s season a full three weeks before the playoffs begin. And let me just say, I’d take a hard slap from Evan if it meant from then on I would get to beat him in fantasy every year.
Sean is forced to turn back to Kyler just as the Seahawks are getting their shit together. They held Purdy to 150 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, and two TDs. I can’t imagine Kyler faring better than Purdy against any defense. Maybe 20 points.
Baker is back, and it’s going to be the windiest game of the week, a really weird game where the Giants are starting Tommy DeVito, pledging to lean on the run game, and the Bucs are getting Mike Evans back but maybe also leaning on the run game due to weather. This game just screams, like 17-7 Bucs win as we work our way back to the top of the division with Atlanta losing stem heading into their bye. Fantasy-wise, not a great week for the Bucs, but brighter times after that.
Sean’s down one RB to bye this week, but he still has Conner and Barkley against Swift and Ekeler for Evan. If not Swift, due to injury, then Javonte. Yikes. Good matchups for Ekeler and Javonte, who each had 15+ FP last week, but a combined 30 would be below-average for Conner and Barkley.
Ridley, Puka, and DeVonta probably have a slight edge over Hopkins, AJB, and Marv, but each of these guys has been a mess this year. Puka is the best when healthy, AJB a close second, and then Ridley has has been good with Hopkins gone. Hopkins had that spike week against the Bucs but has been quiet since, barely made a dent in the Chiefs-Bills game. And Marv and DeVonta could catch two TDs or disappear completely. Each has a game of zero or below this season, and each has a game below 2 FP in the past two weeks. Other than that, they’ve been pretty great. My guess is they will finish the week ranked (highest score to lowest): AJB, Puka, Ridley, DeVonta, Marv, Hopkins… if I were Sean, I would not give up on Deebo after a weird week. Remember that Seattle’s defensive coordinator rose through the ranks so quickly because his defense is designed to stop Shanahan’s offense. Green Bay’s defense is nothing close to that. It depends on Purdy’s health, but if Purdy is good to go, I would start the 49er stack over Kyler and DeVonta.
McBride vs. Njoku is a fun matchup of elite TE athleticism. I give the edge to Njoku because of pass volume, and I think the Seahawks will prioritize erasing McBride in the pass game (easier said than done since the top priority will be the run game, and what makes McBride so impossible to defend is that if you treat him like a receiver, he will run over you as a blocker, and if you treat him like a blocker, he will run by you as a receiver).
I don’t understand Sean’s plan at IDP, but Evan has some weak spots if he sticks with Keion White and Devon Witherspoon (great players, just inconcsistent with fantasy points). I’m not crazy about starting two IDPs from one team, as Sean is with Van Ginkel and Cashman, and the reason I don’t like it is that every now and then, you just don’t get enough play volume. I think Sean did this before, and I checked and made sure: he played two Vikings IDPs against the Colts in Week 9, and the Colts were so hopeless on offense that they only ran about 40 plays (league average is 60 per week). Chicago is pretty fucking hopeless and could easily only run 40 plays themselves this week. Sean should stick with Van Ginkel and pivot off of Cashman. Solid LBs this week (not that I’m helping Sean, but I like to squeeze this stuff in earler rather than later): Josey Jewell vs.KC, Eric Kendricks @WAS, Jordan Hicks vs.PIT. They are boring, yes, but offer that solid floor you want when you’re getting your ceiling elsewhere. But hey, if you want ceiling from your LB spot, here you go: Nik Bonitto @LV, Boye Mafe vs.ARI, Dante Fowler vs.DAL, Tuli Tuipulotu vs.BAL. If Sean moves Van Ginkel to LB, he can throw Dexter Lawrence, Christian Barmore, Jalen Carter, Cam Heyward, and Arden Key in the mix, as well. At least one of the Bucs should feast against Tommy DeVito, aka Tommy Doubloons, but I have no idea which one.
Shelby has won exactly one game where Joe Burrow has scored fewer than 38 points. WOULDN’T YOU KNOW it was the week she played me, where I scored 123 and she won with 141. It’s worth mentioning that 141 would have won the last two weeks against Coleman, and out of those 141 in Week 6, Burrow only had 20, Chase had 10, and Chase Brown had 12. Stafford and Waddle can combine for 30 and the rest of Shelby’s players can do their usual thing. Even below full strength at IDP, Shelby’s patched it together with capable backups.
I don’t have a lot of hope for Coleman’s players to hit ceiling this week. Maybe Ken Walker against Arizona, TJ Watt against Jameis, Justin Jefferson against the Bears as the life drains from their eyes… Shelby doesn’t have a lot of potential ceiling. Her Bengals are on bye, her Steelers are in a Cleveland shitstorm… the hope is the Stafford flirts with 30-40 again. That would be enough, especially if that means Kyren doesn’t do much for Coleman. And maybe, just maybe, Tua can match what Stafford did to the Pats last week, giving Jaylen Waddle his best game of the year. It’s 100% Coleman’s game to lose, but it’s not the dominance we grew accustomed to in the first half of the season. It’s high-floor, skate-by, survive, lock up that bye, and cook up some good rivalries for us.
Good news for Shelby is she doesn’t need to win this week. Bad news is that if she loses, she’ll need to win out and probably need other people to lose. More good news: even if she does lose, she has the absolute tastiest trade package in Burrow and Chase. Bad news: the Bengals’ playoff schedule is rough, and there is no dire need for QB among the playoff teams. Kennedy and Oliver could use a boost, but Stroud’s due for TD regression, especially with three shootouts (MIA, KC, BAL) in the playoffs, and Herbert’s averaging 25 per game over his last four, which makes him a borderline top-5 QB. Corey has the next worst QB production (Goff is QB9, Mahomes QB14), with bleak schedules akin to Burrow’s; he would get a better upgrade trading for Josh Allen. Also keep in mind Lamar Jackson is averaging four more points per game than Burrow, and Max is one loss away from selling. All other playoff hopefuls are comfortable at QB. Maybe Purdy’s shoulder injury and Kyler’s inconsistency motivate Sean to make the move. Maybe.
It’s bye week, and it’s goodbye week for Spencer. No Allen, no GW, the Chiefs are going to mix Pacheco in and lower STA’s ceiling, and all of Spencer’s matchups suck. Dell faces the Titans, who will hound Stroud’s shit and lower the ceiling of the whole passing game; Dobbins faces the best run defense, granted it’s a revenge game; Odunze faces the Vikings, who will hound Caleb’s shit; Nabers faces the Bucs, who will have their full starting defense for the first time all season (and high winds and Tommy Doubloons and terrible overall vibes); Legette faces the Chiefs, need I say more? And because these are solid players, too solid to drop, Spencer will barely be able to field a team.
Oliver has Bijan and Davante on bye, so he’s not at full-strength, but he’s at least in fighting shape. Herbert is hot and faces a mediocre Ravens pass defense, Mixon is hot and is likely to see positive game script when the Texans’ defense stifles the Titans’ offense, Alec Pierce is in a shootout, Sutton Is hot and faces a mediocre Raiders defense, Kittle faces the Packers’ garbage linebackers, Hockenson faces a Bears team that has lost all hope, Brian Robinson faces a Cowboys team that will continue losing every game by 20 until morale improves, and QJ stacks with Herbert against the Ravens on Monday night. (Oliver will bench Hock or QJ if Kittle is active, currently questionable but trending towards playing.) Oliver will replace his kicker and empty IDP slot as late as possible, or he’ll scoop up Dicker as soon as he clears waivers. Even then, he’ll drop Quincy for Dicker since he’s more interested in Koo remaining available going into next week’s waivers. I’ll take this opportunity to mention DBs if Oliver wants to double-up at the position: Julian Love, Keisean Nixon, Jeremy Chinn.
Anthony Richardson and Jared Goff play each other this week, so just for the sake of that potential shootout, I’m starting Richardson over Jameis. It’s an easier pill to swallow with Jameis facing the Steelers on Thursday night in a shitstorm (80% chance of rain, 20 MPH winds, 40 degrees, so maybe some hail). Colts-Lions is indoors, the Lions haven’t take their foot off the gas against anybody, and the Colts are letting Richardson air it out.
Nick Chubb and Chuba Hubbard vs. Rhamondre Stevenson and Bucky Irving is the ugliest RB matchup we will see this season. What’s especially ugly is that Chuba and Bucky are the better fantasy players! They all have bad matchups, but Stevenson’s is the least bad, while Chubb’s is horrific. My hope is that neither the Browns or Steelers are willing to risk throwing the ball, maybe setting Chubb up for a season-high in carries. I really can’t tell you whether or not Chubb has looked good. It seems like he’s bursting through holes, but then literally any other RB comes in and looks twice as fast, including D’Onta Foreman. I can say Chubb has looked better each week, and he got limited to 11 carries last week, so he should be fresh even on short rest. Chuba faces the Chiefs, and Jonathon Brooks is finally making his debut, so it’s a black box as far as volume goes, and the Chiefs’ defense is elite. Stevenson faces Miami’s average run defense, and Stevenson is averaging 21 touches per game over the last month, but his efficiency has been dismal, with less than four yards per carry in every game going back to… his last matchup against Miami (granted that was a Tyler Huntley game, so the Pats had favorable gamescript). Stevenson should be good for 10-20 FP. Bucky is off bye and faces the Giants in the wind and rain. It’s good for rushing volume, not so good for making cuts or slipping through tackles. Corey should probably pivot to Pittman in the shootout, maybe siphon some of my AR juice. But this is all ignoring the imminent return of Isiah Pacheco, who faces Carolina. The Chiefs should destroy them and be able to give Pacheco the fourth quarter, minimum. I’d prefer Pacheco’s odds of 50 yards and five first downs to anything Bucky or Pittman can do. The knock on Pittman besides his health is that he’ll likely matchup with Carlton Davis, who is basically the answer to what if Pittman played DB.
I’m stacking Downs with AR in the shootout, and I’m showcasing Mike Evans for the trade deadline. No matter the weather, Baker is going to throw that endzone fade to Evans. And even if the Bucs lean on the run, they’re going to throw 20 times, and a solid seven of those targets will go to Evans. The Giants don’t have anyone who can cover him.
Corey is starting JSN, McLaurin, and Meyers, though with Meyers facing the Broncos and Corey already starting Bowers in that game, this is another potential swap for Pittman, or if you’re really intent on Bucky starting, then it’s Stevenson, Bucky, and Pacheco, no third WR necessary. McLaurin face sthe Cowboys. As fucking laughable as the Cowboys’ season has been, they have a good defense, and Da’Ron Bland should return, leaving McLaurin no easy matchups unless the Commanders put him in the slot (which, like, duh), but even then it’s Jourdan Lewis, one of the league’s top slot-corners. So I don’t love McLaurin, but he’s so dynamic, and Daniels is such a talented thrower, you just can’t bench him for a bad matchup. I will mention here that Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses famously decline as the season goes on. He doesn’t adjust. He gives away the whole playbook in the first half of the season and then bangs his head aginst the wall in the second half. So if you’re feeling froggy… But we move on to JSN, who leads the Seahawks in targets, and for good reason. He gets open, he squeezes the thing, he occasionally breaks tackles. I believe he will go down as the best Ohio State WR drafted in the past ten years, putting him over the likes of McLaurin, GW, Olave, and even Marv. He lacks the speed of the first three and the size of Marv, but he runs the best routes, has the best hands, and plays in the best offense (scheme, not personnel).
I am on a mission to collect all the TEs and force Kennedy to trade for one of them. That’s my sole focus for the next two weeks. I will continue to start multiple TEs and make note that they are producing flex-worthy numbers regardless of position. Don’t be stingy, Kennedy, and don’t expect me to drop one. I can start three, and I’ve demonstrated that I will start three. Pay the piper already.
Specifically I’m starting Goedert and LaPorta this week, with Andrews on the back-burner if LaPorta can’t go. Oh, I definitely want to start Andrews for the showcase. Kennedy likely has too much pride to ask for Andrews back, anyway, so I’m okay benching him for Chubb and Chuba. (I’ve also been dying to make a Chub-A and Chub-B pun for weeks but I know it won’t land, so here I am, killing my darling between parentheses.)
But man, was there a better pick in our draft than Brock Bowers at 5.01, after so many other rookies and TEs were picked? He might lead the league in targets from now until the end of the season, and Corey gets to keep him (at the cost of letting JSN walk, tough break, but maybe Corey surprises us with a pre-draft trade for a second early-keeper slot and keeps both).
Chase McLaughlin was not my ideal start this week in the wind and rain in New York, but Oliver’s cash game gave me the incentive to hedge against him anyway. I was willing to burn a bench spot on him for a week and look forward to his remaining schedule, opting to start Dicker in the dome this week, but whatever. More opportunity to make even dumber use of that bench spot.
Jake Bates is making a bid for best kicker in fantasy this year. He’s made all of his kicks through ten games, and he’s knocked in four 50-yarders in the last four weeks, including two crucial and clutch 50s to beat the Texans two weeks ago.
I am once again aiming for sack-based upside by starting three edge rushers this week. I’m taking it one step too far by starting two edge rushers for the same team, but that team is facing the most-sacked QB in the league, so… nope, still dumb.
Corey’s starting a well-rounded mix of IDPs: elite edge rusher, versatile freelance LB, ballhawk DB, and a QB-of-the-defense-type LB. He’s sure to hit 30 points, which is why I’m willing to play my more volatile mix.
Overall, I’m at a disadvantage, likely to lose by 20-50, but I could catch enough breaks to win by 10. I am also willing to roll over if the right trade offers come in.
In my estimation, this is this week’s most competitive matchup. It’s the only matchup between teams with winning records, and it’s the only matchup without obvious blowout potential. Aesthetically, you’d rather have Kennedy’s team 10 out of 10 times, but the consistent underachievement from some of his key players, the heavy skew toward three Lions and McCaffrey, opens the door for a more diversified team with the same number of gamebreakers to steal a win from you. Nix, Achane, Lamb, and Kupp should score as many points as Kennedy’s top four, and then it’s a matter of whether or not the Texans’ offense can figure out how to win through the air. Worthy and Pollard are home run threats, Kennedy has no TE, the IDP matchup is even, and Cameron has the advantage at kicker.
But on the real, I am expecting Kennedy to win this game, which would clinch him a playoff spot and, combined with wins from Oliver and Corey, put Cameron on the verge of missing the playoffs, where his saving grace will be that Shelby couldn’t scam her way to .500 this week without her Bengals. Cameron still has to worry about Shelby and whoever wins between Max and Brian because all three of those teams should maintain their points lead over Cameron after this week. But again, Cam has the home run threats, the potential to not only upset Kennedy but recover those point-deficits. A win this week would put Cameron in the ultimate buy-sell pickle. He’d be nearly guaranteed a playoff spot, but when you look at his lineup side-by-side with Kennedy’s, you just can’t help but notice which one looks like a contender and which one doesn’t. But in the case where you beat the apparent contender, how can you argue your team isn’t good enough to contend? Can you stand the pressure coming from both sides and stand pat at the deadline? Isn’t it only human to urge oneself to buy or to sell? I guess I would urge you to dispel the dichotomy and buy into to yourself. You put together a good team. See it through, stand up to the voice that cries, I want, and enlighten it, I am.
