QB Jameis Winston
RB Nick Chubb
WR Jerry Jeudy
WR Tee Higgins
TE Mark Andrews
FX Taysom Hill
FX Jaylen Warren
That was my starting offense before making any transactions this week. Those players combined for 138.22. Throw in my kicker and IDPs, and I would have scored 174.22 this week, beating Max by a solid 13 points. But I tinkered. It’s what I do. I chip away the marble, I trim the bonsai, and in the end, I’ve got a box of rocks and a pot of dirt. I should be in 8th place right now, burning draft picks for a playoff run. Instead, I’m hoping stat corrections in Spencer’s favor don’t land me in dead last. BUT I have four wins despite starting the season without my top five picks. I’m still feeling good. I’m feeling like a total idiot, but I’m at peace with it. I enjoy playing the game. I enjoy the torment. I get what I deserve, and I enjoy the fairness.
I don’t know why I started Raheem Mostert and Rico Dowdle over Taysom Hill and Jerry Jeudy. Like, given the keeper element in our league and me hoping to be in 8th place at this point in the season, it really doesn’t make sense to drop Jerry Jeudy for Mostert or Dowdle. It definitely doesn’t make sense for me to start two dudes I don’t think about at all for my favorite alt-TE, just one week after winning on the backs of the league’s first TE triple-stack. Chalk it up to galaxy-brain and move on.
I don’t think my season is over yet. I could still go 7-7, and only three teams even have seven wins to this point. I can keep Corey from winning his seventh next week, and three teams with seven wins already banked can hold off three teams with six wins or fewer. The standings can be shaken again. Depending on what Coleman decides for rivalries, there is a world where the top five teams and I win out, and the rest of you don’t. So we play on.
Most importantly, Max plays on. Eleven weeks in, and we’re all still in the hunt. 160 is a respectable score, a contending score, especially when you consider Lamar had his worst game of the year, Aaron Jones completely sucked, and none of your IDPs hit double-digits. There’s meat on that bone, baby. That 28 from Jonnu is probably fool’s gold, but it got you a real win, and you get Cade Otton back next week if you’re not convinced it’s legit. Next up for Max is Brian, who is on a five-game slide and has a byepocalypse, so the storm might be over.
The Bengals and Steelers keep coming through. DJ Moore exists again. Kyle Pitts was bad again. Shelby’s mainstay IDPs were strong again. Shelby is the entire playoff fringe after this week. It’s six teams above .500, Shelby at 5-6, and five teams at 4-7. Does she bother making a move? With Kyle Pitts on bye and Nick Bosa nursing a hip/oblique injury, Shelby could think about using cheap picks to shore up those spots. She also has to figure out a QB for Week 12. Chase and Brown are good players who you can’t replace either, but you at least have your Chaad, Warren, and Waddle in the wings. You don’t have to scramble. If you want to stay hot and take down a cold Coleman, you might not be able to fix it with a free agent. Right now, it’s Geno and Stafford and that’s it, and that’s IF none of the five teams ahead of you in waivers decide to scoop them up (Coleman is #2 and could add one of them just to hurt you).
But don’t let me drag you into the fourth dimension. Enjoy the win.
Evan, take it from me: it’s not over. This was one of those weird weeks that’s better off forgotten. Fred Warner with just three tackles despite playing 100% of snaps is never happening again. You might not be surprised to find out that the last time Fred Warner played 100% snaps and only had three tackles, he was facing the Seahawks. Well, he doesn’t face them again this year, so you’re in the clear! You’re getting Baker and Marv and Lavonte back, the Bucs are about to light the league on fire once more, and you’re about to climb back up those standings. Playoffs? Idk. But you’ll face Sean, and the fire in your belly will ignite, and the sound of that slap will ring in Sean’s ears, and his team will crumble. Don’t even worry about it.
Corey’s above .500, tied with Shelby for the best active win streak (three), fresh off maybe a masterful McCaffrey trade that netted Corey a future 4th and only cost him 5 FP from the position this week. Let’s highlight Jared Goff’s 50-point game, though. Let’s talk about how the Lions are content playing college football and running up the score on teams that quit mid-game. Goff is going to face Chicago twice, and the first time will be in Detroit on Thanksgiving. We have never seen a team quit like the Bears are going to quit that day, and the Lions will keep the gas pedal to the floor. So we should get at least one more huge Goff game, which is good because Mahomes, as a fantasy asset, is broken. But you know what fixes even the most broken fantasy asset? A matchup with the Carolina Panthers, which Mahomes gets next week, perfect because if there’s ever been a trap game, it’s the Lions facing a non-conference, sub-.500 opponent, the week before they host the Bears for Thanksgiving. Anyway, back to this week, Corey had Goff for 50, Bowers for 27, JSN for 20, Frankie Luvu for 20, and not a lot else. Not nothing, some decent games in there: 12 from a kicker, 9 apiece from a pair of IDPs, Michael Pittman looking at least alive for the first time in a month (on Corey’s bench but still). Corey’s about to get Bucky back from bye, Pacheco back from IR, and maybe he swings a trade for a superstar. I mean, why trade away CMC if that’s your plan, okay, but the game done changed now that Corey won again and is maybe just one win away from punching his ticket to the playoffs.
Brian has waved the white flag. He’s open for business, and there are quality pieces for the taking, but the name value likely exceeds their utility. Breece Hall is on fire, but the Jets are about to be on bye, and they’re one loss away from elimination. Jonathan Taylor is that dude, but his schedule is rough, and it includes a bye in Week 14, so you need to already have your playoff spot locked up to make that move. Drake London is Brian’s third unkeepable. He’s been good, his schedule is fine, he should be cheap relative to other WR trade targets, and Brian is motivated to move him. I would be more interested in DK Metcalf and Jayden Reed, who are keepable for Brian, but he has other options, including three dudes named Brian. The thing about DK and Reed is they were drafted in the same keeper range as Jayden Daniels, who would be the obvious choice. Hell, shoot your shot for Daniels if you’re in the market for a QB. Everything is available at the right price! (Except the Brians, probably.)
Okay, to be fair, Brian’s season isn’t over. He’s just reeling from a blowout. He can right the ship against Max this week, not only claw back onto the playoff bubble, but deliver the knockout punch to Max’s season. Nothing against Max in particular. Ending anyone’s season is enough reason to come full force one last time, with the added bonus that you might just stay in the hunt if Shelby, Evan, Spencer, Cameron, and Corey lose (possible!).
There was a moment where these matchups were each decided by less than a point, but Oliver lost 2.5 points somewhere in there, and we don’t know whether it’ll come back. It’s a miracle he even made it this close. Going into Monday night, sleeper was giving Oliver like a 9% chance of winning. The bright side is that this should dispel any illusions Oliver has about being a team of destiny. Save those future picks, let fate prove me wrong. Unless you’re scared.
Kennedy gets a win, a good win, would’ve been a melee win, but it’s not a convincing win. It’s mostly Lions and McCaffrey. I don’t know what possessed Kennedy to move off of late-keeper Jauan Jennings for Zay Flowers straight-up. I mean, I like a little diversification. Kennedy didn’t want to start all Texans, Lions, and 49ers; Coleman didn’t want to start Henry and Flowers together against the Steelers. I get that you’re trading on names a bit and Flowers is the higher profile player. But Jennings… the box score tells the story, and if you saw any of the plays he made, you know this dude is an animal. And remember, they use him to throw the ball on trick plays. Zay Flowers is a big name for good reason, but I think the details are going to make this an obvious win for Coleman.
But again, Kennedy gets the win. He effectively clinches a playoff spot, and he’s gotta be pretty worried about his QB spot heading into the home stretch. Stroud’s last five games: 4.3, 14.9, 7.6, 8.7, 13.2. Teams continue to bring heat, and it continues to work. The only game left where Stroud is likely to top 20 points is Week 13 against the Jags. His playoff schedule (given the blitz issues) is going to be harder than his last five games. The Lions and McCaffrey can carry you to the playoffs, but you need a legit QB to carry you through.
Cameron would have lost this game if he hadn’t traded for Bo Nix. I just need that on record. It’s such a Cameron move to have nothing going at QB and then patch it together just in time for a (doomed) playoff run. Cameron had four players in double-digits this week; the other eight players combined for 36.6 points, fewer than five points per player. Staying in the playoff mix just robs a more competitive team of the spot. Sell your few good players; let somebody else have your spot.
Oliver gets a bad beat, but luckily he was asleep for it and will only see that his team fought hard. Oliver isn’t guaranteed a playoff spot, but if he’s determined to use future picks to get better, it’s time to buy IDPs, specifically DL, more specifically, Danielle Hunter coming off his best game yet and facing the Titans and Jags in his next two.
Spencer isn’t out. Nobody’s out. Don’t put it in the newspaper that anyone’s out. But Spencer is at the bottom of the standings (barring stat corrections), and next week is the Bills’ bye. Spencer is ahead of Shelby in waiver priority, so there’s some hope they can add Geno in a decent matchup. It’s as close as you can get to being out without actually being out. In addition to being at the bottom of the standings, Spencer’s just three points ahead of last in scoring.
Who’s surprised? Do you not understand how villains work? The good guys only win in movies. This is real life. This is a game based on a game that takes place in real life, and that game is only 50% rigged, probably, more in prime time but I digress… Sean is the champ, the king, and this week he got to be the underdog, too. Now he’s top dog again, even if he’s firmly in second place, one loss away from being in third place, with basically zero chance of fighting for first place, but top dog nonetheless! In fact, he at least gave himself a chance to fight for first. He needed to close the scoring gap a little more. 22 is a dent, but he still has 139 to go and just three weeks to do—yeah, it’s over. Good win, keeps you in line for the second playoff bye, but in terms of your direct competition with Coleman, it’s basically just wind in your sail.
Coleman is kind of faltering though. Through nine weeks, he never dipped below 140, and now he’s done it twice in a row. He was solid across the board (minus Kelce), but only Jauan Jennings had a boom week (also Darnold on the bench). How about Coleman benching Justin Tucker this week, only for Tucker to miss two kicks and then still outscore (by .1) Coleman’s weird flier Tyler Bass? What is happening? Anyway, if this is Coleman’s floor, it’s still the highest floor in the league, and with the Jennings trade, Coleman doesn’t need anything. It is a little dangerous to have more than you need. We’ve seen teams falter when they add too many starting caliber players and start the wrong ones come playoff time. It might be best to know who your starters are but have capable backups like Mattison and Addison—who, I’m now reading, are both injured; maybe spend a cheap pick for a WR or go after Jeudy on waivers.
Speaking of waivers, it’s been a min, but since I’m practically dead, here’s some free winners:
1. Jerry Jeudy
2. Alec Pierce
3. Jordan Mason
4. Trevor Lawrence (fake injury)
5. Dallas Goedert
6. Geno Smith
7. Zach Ertz
8. Daiyan Henley
9. Christian Watson
10. Derek Carr (bye)
