1. Coleman (9-1) 1709
2. Sean (6-4) 1547
3. Kennedy (6-4) 1442
4. Oliver (6-4) 1384.47
5. Cameron (5-5) 1384.87
6. Corey (5-5) 1292
7. Evan (4-6) 1439
8. Brian (4-6) 1430
9. Shelby (4-6) 1381
10. Doak (4-6) 1337
11. Spencer (4-6) 1330
12. Max (3-7) 1495
Max’s bed-shitting cost us a seven-team tie at the bottom of the standings, cost himself sixth place in the process. Mason Tipton, bro? Who even is that? I could have been in ninth place ahead of Corey. Instead, he’s sitting at 5-5 despite trailing the field in scoring. His bad injury luck is now meaningless. CMC is back, Micah Parsons is back, Pacheco is on his way back. If Corey had a QB, he might actually be a contender. Well, we all know where you can get a QB. Max is now all the way out. He’s content to go down swinging, but Coleman gave him the best advice: trade while the demand is there.
Regression is coming for these teams, in opposite directions. Wins don’t regress, not statistically. But scoring does. Corey’s scoring is on the way up, Max’s is on the way down. Max is watching the dirt rise around his body. Corey is rising from the ashes.
Corey, I’m sorry I said your season was on the line. I wasn’t familiar with your game.
Kennedy and Spencer’s whole matchup is better off forgotten. Spencer had a handful of strong plays that didn’t work out: Garrett Wilson against the Cards, Nabers against the Panthers, Tank Dell WR1 in a game where Stroud was going to need to throw, Khalil Mack against the maybe the league’s most sackable QB… The Chargers had seven sacks, and Mack didn’t touch Levis once. He didn’t record a single stat. And those three WRs combined for 24. Just one TD, specifically that gimme TD to Tank that Stroud put too much air under and turned into a pick. That easy opportunity becomes the TD it was supposed to be, and Spencer wins this matchup.
Because man, Kennedy played scared, and his team played like shit. Cousins @NO was always a trap. You never bet against a team that just fired their head coach. And you don’t chase sacks. Trey Hendrickson had four sacks last week. You know who probably knows that? His next opponent. But it’s fine. Not because you won, but because the reason you started bullshit at DL and DB was that your mainstays were on bye. It’s nice to be able to escape with a win and cut some underachievers without remorse.
The lesson from this game is about process, about spending your draft capital and your waiver priority making sure you have a complete team by this point in the season. Kennedy was dead in the water all day, through three quarters of Sunday Night Football, then the Lions got their shit together, and in about fifteen minutes of game clock, Kennedy had 40 more points and a victory sealed. Because Kennedy spent his draft picks on the best three players on an undeniable offense. If Nico had been good to go, Kennedy would have played two more players on an undeniable offense and probably gotten 40 from them like he did from his Lions. Spencer simply spent too much draft capital on QB, TE, IDP, and unproven upside. You’re allowed to do some of that, not all of it. Bet on either the Jets, the Giants, or the Bears. Going in on all three is just disgusting. The only reason Spencer isn’t in dead last is that they’re getting legitimate RB production out of a 10th, an 11th, and a free agent.
As bad as this week was, you’re still 4-6, one game out of the playoffs, so you just have to ingore those old mistakes and keep on pushing. The nice thing about having all of your players suck at once is that a few of them should bounce back together next week.
Kennedy slides back into a tie for 2nd. At the same time, he loses more ground to Sean in the points. Sean was already up 40, now it’s 100. If Kennedy wants that bye week, he’s going to need to score like crazy or get a couple more of these free squares.
Cameron is burning alive. Since dropping 198 in Week 2, he are his scores: 116, 134, 126, 127, 136, 160 (lost to 217), 140, 98. How he managed to stay above .500 that whole time, I don’t know. But that’s in the past. He’s at .500 now, and the slide will continue. Dak’s injury is whatever on its own since Cam acquired Love, but the Cowboys are now completely hopeless on offense, so CeeDee Lamb won’t score points, and he won’t fetch a draft pick. Tony Pollard just scored 9 FP against his first of three red matchups, so we’d expect the single-digit outings to persist for two more weeks. Pollard’s the namesake of Cam’s team, and he’s got mid-round keeper value. We’ve seen the Titans’ plan for him. We like it. He’s a great keeper candidate. So he’s also not scoring points or fetching a pick. Let’s not pretend Cameron is a contender, and let’s talk frankly about keepers.
Next year, we’ll have three keepers: one early (Rounds 3-7), one mid (Rounds 8-12), one late (Rounds 13+ and FA). Ideally, you retain two of each, knowing you can bump the lower-status guys up (i.e., keep a mid with an early slot). You can also trade your slots, as Cam did with his late slot, granting Sean three extra years of Trey McBride in the process. Was it worth taking Raheem Mostert in the sixth? To get Austin Ekeler, then flip Ekeler for Jordan Love, who has mid-keeper status? Probably, yes. I think the flipping worked out.
Ideally retain your best players with keeper eligibility. Like we should learn from the McBride situation, it’s worth it to be able to release players back into the draft pool rather than let other people keep them for cheap. What you get back should be good enough to make you as competitive as the team you’re trading with. Does that makes sense? Don’t settle for a deal where you get marginally better while the other team gets significantly better. Trading next year’s picks complicates that practice, but even in that case, you’re hoping then you’re strenghening their position this year in exchange for weakening their position next year. You’re not just thinking about your position because your position is relative to theirs. ANYWAY you should hold onto your best early keepers or trade them to teams who already have better early keepers than the dude you’re giving them.
We’re talking about 36 kept players, up from 24. It should be really difficult to get a 2nd in trade. Ignore Oliver already giving up his 2nd. He was operating under the assumption that picks are losing value, which is true, but not those picks. 1sts and 2nds are the only picks retaining their value in the age of semi-dynasty Sean’s ushering in. Four of the top five QBs aren’t keepable. Five of the top 10 RBs. Seven of the top 10 WRs. That means the top 16 picks should be untouchable. It might not be those exact players, but we should respect the math. If you think you’re going to reach the second-round of the playoffs, and you’re willing to burn a 2nd for the chance to reach the championship, you better be getting a bonafide top-16 player for the playoffs because you’re knocking your second-best player next year from top-16 down to a borderline top-50 guy. I think that makes sense. I don’t really care. I expect Coleman to spend his bonus 2nd he got from Oliver just to keep an elite player away from Sean.
To be clear, it is too soon to spend a high pick. Brian just spent a 4th, but there was some sentimentality at play there. If all you’re doing is getting the best player for the playoff stretch, you need to wait until the deadline, but you need to contact that seller before they’re ready to sell, not with an offer, but with interest, the promise of an offer when they’re ready to sell. Otherwise, they might bite at the first offer they get out of, like, loyalty or honor or something. Here are the players you need to keep tabs on.
Lamar Jackson: 34.6 ppg, up 5.7 on #2 Baker, up 8.1 on Jalen Hurts, 11.5 on Brock Purdy. Sean will be the most willing to buy, but Coleman can outbid him.
Josh Allen: 26.9 ppg, not Allen’s best season, but he’s got dome shootouts against the Rams and Lions in Week 14 and 15, and he has division games at home against the Pats and Jets in Weeks 16 and 17. If the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 11, suddenly they are the only team competing with the Chiefs for the playoff bye. Even if they lose to the Chiefs, they’re playing for homefield advantage over everyone else. They’re going to keep their foot on the gas.
Joe Burrow: 28.3, see Ja’Marr
Christian McCaffrey: I mean, come on.
Jonathan Taylor: 19.7 ppg, a bye in Week 14, but will be playing the eliminated Titans and Giants in Weeks 16 and 17, but Brian is probably too much in the playoff mix to bail.
Bijan Robinson: 18.5 ppg, but Oliver would have to lose every game between now and the deadline to consider selling.
De’Von Achane: 18.5 ppg (when you throw out the game he left after five plays). The top teams are stacked at RB, and that’s why they’re the top teams. But they are also one injury away from subbing a boom-bust WR for their bell-cow RB. Issue: Dolphins will be eliminated from the playoff hunt soon and might opt to use Achane less.
D’Andre Swift: 15.5 ppg, even after being eliminated, Bears will keep the pedal down in order to give Caleb the best possible reps.
Rachaad White: 11.8 ppg, stuck in a timeshare, but the floor has been high, and he’s relatively cheap.
Ja’Marr Chase: 21 ppg, massive spike weeks, the potential to stack with Burrow if you lose the Lamar auction. I’d rather have Lamar because I think he’s matchup-proof, but depending on chronology here, you could get these two Bengals for the price of one Lamar.
AJ Brown: 18.2 ppg (when you credit the game he left early as 0.5). An obvious target for Coleman if he cares about stacking. Just a reminder: stacking increases your variance. You live and die by it. Which is why you only do it if it’s an elite QB and his elite WR.
Terry McLaurin: 13.3 ppg, has scored 14+ FP in eight straight weeks
Drake London: 12.8 ppg, but again, Brian’s probably too deep in the playoff mix.
Mike Evans: 12.2 ppg, scoring 20+ in three of five full games.
Marvin Harrison: 10.1 ppg, on the list because he’s unkeepable and good enough. Evan has no incentive to hold on, and you can get a solid bench asset for a fair price, maybe throw him in the deal with AJB.
Garrett Wilson: 14.3 ppg, the Jets are collapsing, but he’s been here before. Even if they shut down Rodgers and Adams, GW’s fantasy production will basically remain the same.
Waddle/STA: ignoring ppg because of the Tua injury, these two have the same issue as Achane and haven’t had anything near his ceiling.
CeeDee Lamb: 15.5 ppg, Dak is done for the year, the Cowboys are very bad and might shut Lamb down early if he picks up even a minor injury. I don’t want any players from these two- and three-win teams for that same risk. Younger players are at less risk since their teams want to see them develop, but it all depends on the individual team’s philosophy. Proceed with caution in a way you wouldn’t with teams that are competing. These teams are the Jets, Dolphins, Pats, Titans, Jags, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys, Giants, Panthers, and Saints. The Panthers are exceptions because they’re young and starting to look kind of good. They’ll want to build on this momentum heading into the offseason. The Browns are interesting because I have so many Browns I’ve convinced myself that they’re going to audition this iteration of the offense to see if they want to run it back next year. I could honestly see the Browns firing the offensive coaches and auditioning DTR at QB if the next few weeks go to shit (which they will; four of the Browns’ next five include the Steelers twice, the Broncos, and the Chiefs).
Oliver won this matchup (did anyone remember this was a recap?), and he found his QB. Herbert is doing the Brock Purdy thing Oliver hoped he would. It’s a ball-control offense that’s evolving into an offense that keeps the defense off balance and looks for chunk plays. It doesn’t look like San Francisco, but it looks like a good enough imitation for fantasy purposes. Herbert has really good matchups between now and the trade deadline, and he plays the Bucs in Week 15. If Oliver’s serious about a championship run, he needs another QB for Weeks 16 and 17.
At 6-4, Oliver is one of four teams above .500, meaning until further notice, he’s a playoff team. What’s weird about this is that Oliver’s best WR going forward is Courtland Sutton, and his best lineup going forward might just include two TEs (Kittle and Hockenson). Well, I guess Brian Robinson will be back soon to reunite the ceRBerus, which is what isn’t weird about Oliver being a playoff team. It’s also why Brian is probably a playoff team and why Max should be a playoff team if not for some bad schedule luck.
Shelby can’t keep this up, but we can marvel as she keeps getting away with it for now. Shelby hit a personal record 209 this week despite having just half of her lineup hit double-digits. And she left 13 points on the bench, or else she’d have cracked the all-time top five scoring weeks. She sits in ninth place, but if a few things go her way next week, she could be as high as fourth going into the Bengals’ bye. It’s enough daylight for her to hold on to her best players. We’ve been talking about Shelby being on the verge of selling since Week 5. Five weeks later, she’s practically a playoff team. Patience, and picking the right players. That’s what makes this game work.
Sean had 11 starters hit double-digits, and he lost by 30. Fabulous. This is what we really need in order to fell the king. If we can be better than his better, and we can also take advantage of his down-weeks (see: Cards’ Week 11 bye plus a matchup against full-strength Coleman). While Shelby is one win (and a little help) away from fourth place, Sean is one loss away from falling into the middle class of the league and being torn to pieces by the bloodthirsty masses.
After just ten weeks, Coleman clinches a playoff spot. He had just 128 points this week, yet he still would have won had this been a melee week. He’s 9-1, he has a three-game lead in the standings, next week he faces the second-place Sean (sans Cardinals), then he faces Shelby (sans Bengals), AND he gets to decide who he faces in Week 13 for Rivalry Week. Oh, he also has a 160-point scoring lead, more than a full week’s worth against the league average. He could go 9-5, but there are already six teams with six losses. Coleman can turn his attention from lineup decisions to scouting the rest of the league. Keep an eye on which players are getting hot, which NFL defenses are getting worse, and have some idea of how you’re going to get one more piece before our trade deadline (the answer today would be AJ Brown, but there are three weeks before the deadline).
Evan had a terrible week and it’s over. Don’t think about it. Well, okay, think about how you started timeshare Javonte Williams against the league’s best defense when you could have started starter/kick-returner Austin Ekeler versus not the league’s best defense. You could have kept Coleman from clinching the playoffs with a month left in the season. You could have been a .500 team with a good grip on a playoff spot. Instead, you’re down here with the rest of us, the best of the worst. Seventh in the standings, fifth in the points, starting Drake Maye opposite Joe Burrow with your season on the line.
For the second week in a row, I would have been better off starting Taysom Hill at QB. For the second week in a row, I watched my QB live in negative space for three quarters before he pulled it together for one final drive. Needing just 21 points from three Rams, I got 17 from Jared Verse in the first quarter. I was losing by five until the fourth quarter. I ended up winning by seven and avoiding stat correction hell. My team is trash. I’m probably the first team in MD history to start three TEs, and I’m definitely the first team to do that and win. And I credit it all not to the three TEs (who combined for a respectable 38) but to my last-minute decision to switch out Danielle Hunter for HHS alum Azeez Al-Shaair rocking all-red on Sunday Night Football. The difference between Al-Shaair and Hunter was eight points. Had I stuck with Hunter, I would have lost by less than a point. Panic: it’s good for you!
Brian is riding a four-game losing streak that’s taken him from 4-2 to 4-6. The winners of three other matchups would have lost to Brian, who finished fifth in scoring this week. Which is to say that Brian isn’t as bad as his record. He started Jayden Daniels against a Steelers defense that has spent six years trying to figure out how to defend Lamar. But I understand not benching your starter under any circumstances. Daniels had scored 25+ in seven of eight full games before Week 10. Brian did what he had to do. Fortunately, six losses doesn’t mean anything this year. Corey and Cameron (aka fifth and sixth place) are sure to hit six losses before we’re done here. I would hesitate to assume a team with a losing record can make the playoffs, though. Usually that requires at least one team completely bottom-out. Brian should really try to win more games than he loses from here on out, though. As should we all.
The moral of the story is: parity reigns. Coleman may have clinched, Sean may be guaranteed to three-peat, but none of us are eliminated yet, none of us really benefits from selling yet because no one (besides Brian on his quest to collect all the Brians) is willing to pay up just yet, and the best thing for all of us to do is grind it out one week at a time (this coming from the guy who actively tried giving up twice and somehow delivered two poison pills instead).
