Apparently, it’s the point in the season where I trade my best player to the team I’m currently facing. I wouldn’t call it a tank, but that’s mostly optimism. I’m not trying not to tank. I’m hoping to eventually win the #1 pick and use it next season to pick Justin Jefferson. That’s where I revert to my standard skepticism. I’m not actually thinking about next year’s draft, but I am thinking about how I’ve never had Justin Jefferson and how I don’t think Saquon or Henry can keep this up. I don’t even want to talk about CMC, who comes back to this to resurrect Corey’s team with one hand while he buries the Bucs with the other.
It’s not that I’m not impressed by the Bucs’ showing on Monday night. I’m very impressed, especially by the offensive design. I love the running game especially. It’s unpredictable, borderline chaotic. The backs are electric dual threats, and the blocking, the variety, the mix between inside and outside runs, it’s incredible, and a huge reason it gets to be so incredible is because defenses have to respect Baker’s ability to spray it all over the field. He doesn’t care who is on the receiving end. He seemingly tells these guys, you’re gonna have to prove you can’t win it because otherwise I’m fitting in there the same way I would for Mike or Chris. I fucking love it. Nevertheless, we’re not a great team. We simply cannot hang with the Ravens, Chiefs, and 49ers with our current roster. I think if we played the Chiefs again, they would bury us. I think they were doing to us what they’ve been doing to every other mediocre team they’ve played close. They mostly tried stuff out, and when they needed a bucket, they got one. If not for Mahomes rolling his ankle, we wouldn’t have even gotten the ball back for the game-tying drive. And we all know there should have been no game-tying drive either way; it should have been a game-winning drive, and instead it was a game-losing drive. It’s Bowles’ fault, but that doesn’t make him a terrible coach. I do believe the game has passed him by, and I think I’d like to see Liam Coen promoted in the offseason, and what would be amazing would be if Robert Saleh came in as our new DC. It would probably only last a year or two, but it would be fucking sick.
Alas, we dream. Let’s preview the week ahead.
I’m cooked. I’m just going to add my favorite players and hope the good vibes lead to lucky wins. If I can scrape together a semi-competitive lineup by the end of the regular season, I might move some cheap picks to round out the roster. Some people prefer to tank outright and take those middle picks. I hate the middle picks. I want to pick as close to the turn as possible. It makes it easier to strategize, and it adds value. Again, not actually thinking about next year’s draft; just coping with losing.
QB
Stafford vs. Daniels
I had some free agent options—Stafford, Dimes, Rodgers the main three. In terms of matchup, I sorted them Dimes, Rodgers, Stafford, but in terms of shootout potential, I think the order is reversed. I don’t like Rodgers, and though I like Dimes’ fantasy potential, I tend to set lineups that I like to look at, and I don’t like his face. Plus, Stafford’s my boy. The only nerves I have are the Jalen Ramsey revenge game angle, but Stafford has options. He can avoid Ramey altogether and still score 20 FP.
Jayden Daniels faces the Steelers, who are coming off a bye, so I feel pretty good about this being his worst game of the season. Edge: Doak
RB
Chuba vs. Breece, JT, Tracy
Chuba Hubbard will be replaced by Jonathon Brooks, but I doubt it happens this week. The Panthers could have traded Chuba at the deadline and decided to keep him around, which is honestly kind of dumb with Chuba in a contract year and playing well enough to start somewhere else next season. So the only thing that makes sense, especially since they did trade Diontae and Mingo, is that the Panthers plan to start two RBs, which is not the same as having a committee approach. A committee approach would have two RBs splitting the number of reps one starter would usually get. Rather, the Panthers are going to attempt to give two RBs a full workload. It’s impossible to achieve, but the attempt is what matters. The Lions attempt it, as do the Dolphins, and each team is supporting two RBs for fantasy. The Falcons did it last year, the Steelers are going to try to do it with Warren at full-strength, and the Bucs would do it if they could hold a lead. Ugh, here I go coping again. As far as this week goes, Chuba will at least split reps with Brooks while Sanders hits the bench. The matchup is decent against the Giants in London.
On the other side of that London game, we have Tyrone Tracy, who has three 100-yard games in five career starts. Obviously, the Panthers are a plus-matchup.
Breece plays the Cardinals, another plus-matchup, and he’s pretty much guaranteed 20 touches. My hope (my cope) is that the Jets jump out to an early lead via Adams and Wilson, clamp down on defense, and put Breece on ice while Braelon Allen runs out the clock.
JT plays the Bills, who are okay against the run, nothing special. The Colts are going to be nervous about putting the game in Flacco’s hands, but the Colts’ defense is pitiful. The Bills are going to take an early lead and squeeze Taylor out of the game. However, Taylor has a whole first half to do damage before the Colts have to abandon the run, so I’m pretty nervous about all three heads of this ceRBerus. Edge: Brian
WR
Shakir, Demarcus vs. BTJ, McConkey?
We are not having fun at WR right now. Due to injuries and byes, we won’t be seeing Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Jayden Reed, Drake London, or DK Metcalf in this matchup. Brian and I each had to add a WR this week just to set a full lineup. Brian has been trying to get BTJ from me all year, and at 3-6, I finally relented. In return, I got my 9th back (which I had given him in the Higgins trade), and I got his 4th. It’s possible that BTJ’s mid-keeper status leads to two bonus seasons on Brian’s roster, with the added bonus that he might just be the next great LSU WR. He might be worth a 2nd in next year’s draft. The only thing holding him back, the only reason I didn’t just hang up the phone, is that the Jags might be beyond repair. He’s still good for 20 points every other week, but the Justin Jefferson ceiling appears out of reach unless the Jags bring in a McVay clone to open him up.
SO… I’m starting Shakir, who is sort of the Bills’ top receiver, sort of the Bills’ third receiver, sort of fucked this week as he’ll be covered by the Colts’ only decent pass-defender. I’m also starting Rams’ third receiver Demarcus Robinson, who leads the Rams in end-zone targets. Sigh.
Brian starts two rookies in Thomas Jr and McConkey. They’ve been good, they’ve been bad, but they haven’t disappeared in any game. They are important, and their QBs are supposedly great. Neither has seen double-digit targets in a game yet, so I have that going for me. Edge: Brian
TE
Andrews, Taysom, LaPorta vs. Kraft
You’ve seen the rest of my offense. It should come as no surprise I’m tripling down on TEs this week. I might never care less about winning than I do this week. This is a golden opportunity to be the first team in Mortydome history to start three TEs. If we had more room for TEs in our lineups, I would have picked up Gesicki and started him, too. I still remember adding Taysom on a whim two years ago and watching him score 45 in a single game. It might be the single greatest thing I’ve done outside of winning a championship.
I’m just realizing Kraft is on bye and Brian has to find a TE. I assume he’ll cut Bo Nix or Braelon Allen, furthermore I assume he’ll stack Ertz with Daniels once Ertz clears waivers. If not Ertz, then Goedert. Edge: Doak
K
Bass vs. Butker
Whatever.
DL
Verse vs. Burns
I know the chop is problematic, but we do the chop. Sue us.
LB
Hunter, Greenard vs. Logan, Speed
I am chasing sacks against Brian’s consistent tackle-monsters.
DB
Budda vs. Branch
Top-10 guy vs. the absolute best. Edge: Brian
Basically my path to victory is Stafford throws TDs to Robinson again, my TEs match Brian’s RBs (Taysom Hill is a de facto RB, so I have that going for me), and I get the sacks I’m chasing. Which is why I’m picking Brian to win.
QB
Corey is choosing between Goff (@HOU) and Mahomes (vs.DEN). Houston’s offense will be so dead in the water against Detroit’s defense that Goff won’t have to throw more than 15 times, capping his ceiling. The Chiefs will want to prove they can solve an elite secondary, but it makes sense to worry that they cannot. Ultimately, I’m fine with Corey starting Goff on the chance that Nico Collins returns to Houston’s lineup and makes this a game.
Max is starting Lamar (duh) vs. CIN, a great matchup, a team Lamar has a million highlight runs against. Issue: Lamar has a knee injury and ran three times for four yards last week. But he torched Denver’s elite secondary, and the Bengals suck, so we don’t really care if he runs or not anymore. Should be another epic shootout. Edge: Max
RB
Bucky, CMC vs. Jones, Kamara
Corey is keeping CMC on IR until the last minute, and I respect the ruse. But I try to give you the most accurate predictions. It’s a fool’s errand, but here I am. Bucky had a down game nursing an injury against the league’s best defense. I’m assuming he’ll bounce back, moderately, against the 49ers just-plain-good defense. CMC faces the Bucs, probably on a pitch-count, but even if the 49ers committee this thing, I assume they use CMC at the goal line, and he ends up with two TDs.
Can one head of a ceRBerus sleep while the other two fight? I don’t know, but we’re going to find out as Max is forced to bench Jacobs and Mason this week. Jacobs is on bye, and Mason is a total unknown going forward. He could start, he could be the backup, he could be third. He probably won’t be inactive, but otherwise all bets are off. I imagine he’ll get a handful of carries and maybe be the one to run clock if the 49ers have a big lead late in the game. Jones and Kamara have to be in the lineup every week. It’s a good week for Jones against a bad Jags’ defense. It’s a bad week for Kamara against a solid Falcons run front, but it’s a good week for Kamara against a Falcons’ LB corps that cannot defend him as a receiver, and the Saints’ only other receivers are TEs. So overall, good but not good enough to grant an edge over CMC.
WR
Pittman, McLaurin, Mooney
vs. Parker Washington & STA
Again, Corey’s backed into starting Pittman here. Welllll, kind of. He could opt to cut Sam Hubbard with Micah Parsons likely due back. He could start McLaurin and Mooney at WR and find a free agent to flex. I guess I’d pick Pittman over a free agent, but he’s been pretty terrible as he plays through injury, and the Bills have the number-one shutdown corner (statistically) in Christian Benford. I think I’d prefer Singletary (albeit as backup to Tracy) against Carolina. McLaurin faces Pittsburgh, so that’s bad. Mooney assumes the number-one role with London out, and he faces New Orleans sans Lattimore, so that’s very, very good.
Parker Washington is playing Christian Kirk’s snaps, and he’s doing a decent impression, but Max wasn’t even starting Christian Kirk, He’s only starting Washington because we don’t know Amari Cooper’s deal (is he hurt? is he good? no one knows). With Keon Coleman likely out multiple weeks, Cooper is the de facto #1 in Buffalo, and he’s facing a trash Colts’ secondary. STA has his QB back, and he faces a trash Rams’ secondary. No edge.
TE
Henry vs. Otton
Bowers is on bye, Corey’s starting the best TE available. The matchup is bad, but the usage is good, so 5-10 points feels realistic.
In his last three games, Cade Otton has 25 catches for 250 yards at 3 TDs. Elite TE production. Edge: Max
K
Bates vs. McPherson
Whatever.
DL
Parsons vs. Chris Jones
Again, Corey can cut Hubbard with Parsons due back. Parsons should be a top-3 DL.
Chris Jones is a force, but it doesn’t often translate to fantasy points. Edge: Corey
LB
Luvu, Anzalone vs. Zaire, Hines-Allen
Luvu is boom-bust, Anzalone is solid if unspectacular.
Zaire leads the league in tackles, Hines-Allen is heating up. Edge: Max
DB
Diggs vs. Joseph
Edge to whoever gets an INT.
QB
Herbert vs. Dimes
The Chargers’ offense is a mystery, and I mean that as a compliment. They are forcing defenses into huge mistakes, which makes their success dubious, but I believe in them. The worst thing I can say is that they’re allowing a lot of sacks. Tennessee’s defense has good overall stats, but in three games against good offenses, they’ve gotten creamed. I’m considering the Chargers a good offense, and I’m predicting a creaming. The issue for Herbert is ceiling. Tennessee’s offense is bad bad, and the Chargers’ defense is borderline elite.
Danny Dimes faces the Panthers in London. Carolina has allowed 400 yards of offense to each of their last five opponents, and the four games before that were only slightly better. Dimes is coming off his best game of the season despite playing without his best o-lineman. All season, he’s been good against bad defenses and bad against good defenses. He should be good for 25. Edge: Cameron
RB
Mixon, Robinsons vs. teeny boys
Mixon has a brutal matchup against the Lions, Brian Robinson has a brutal matchup against the Steelers, and Bijan Robinson has a mystery matchup against a Saints team that just fired their HC/DC. I don’t see Mixon or Brian overcoming their matchups. Probably a good week to sell Brian to Brian before a string of bad matchups tanks his value. Bijan should survive his matchup. He’s scored 20+ FP in four straight, and there’s no good reason for this ride to end.
Tony Pollard is coming off a 30-touch game, the Chargers’ defense is great against the run, and Tyjae Spears is back. Expect Tony to be in the 10-point range unless he breaks off a long TD. De’Von Achane is going nuts as a runner and receiver this year. The Rams have been pretty solid against fast RBs because thanks to fast edge rushers, but they don’t have a single LB who can cover Achane as a receiver. No edge.
WR
QJ, Adams vs. Lamb, Kupp, Downs
Finally Oliver doesn’t have to second-guess his WR decision. Adams is an auto-start, and QJ has way more juice than Keenan or Sutton. Other weeks, I might like Sutton. He’s coming off two great games against bad pass defenses. But Kansas City is elite. I wouldn’t fuck with that. The Bears’ offense is terrible.
Lamb has to catch passes from Cooper Rush, which is not the worst thing ever. He averages 75 yards per game with Rush as his QB. Cooper Kupp looks very slow, but he continues to get open and move the chains. Josh Downs is the Colts’ best receiver, and the Colts should be down big against the Bills. Edge: Cameron
TE
Kittle vs. Engram
Kittle is the #1 TE not named Cade Otton.
Engram leads the Jags in targets since coming back from injury. Edge: Oliver
K
Aubrey over everybody. Edge: Cameron
DL
Zach Allen vs. Sexy Dexy
Allen is coming off a goose-egg, facing a Chiefs D that allowed four sacks to the Bucs’ interior rushers despite having the league’s best interior o-line.
Dexter Lawrence led the league in sacks before Trey Hendrickson got four against the Raiders last week. Edge: Cameron
LB
TBD vs. Bolton
Oliver has Spillane on bye, and Quincy hasn’t provided any juice since September. Coming off a sub-100-point week, it’s time for Oliver to bring in some fresh blood. Just go all-Broncos against Mahomes. Allen and Surtain, then two of Barton, Bonitto, and Cooper. Why not?
DB
TBD vs. Bates, J.Jones
Cam’s dudes have been good, not great. Oliver can pull off the upset with the right IDP picks.
QB
Allen vs. Stroud
No elaborations necessary, I hope. Edge: Spe
RB
JK, Mostert, STA vs. Lions, Rhamondre
Spencer is currently starting four WRs again, which is also fine. Tank Dell lets you siphon that Stroud juice, and Rome Odunze looks like Caleb Williams’ best receiver. I just prefer the RB volume, and I’d bet on TDs for Mostert and STA over all other options, including Dobbins.
Kennedy’s only hope for a win comes from the ceRBerus that’s consistently topping 50 points per week with a ceiling around 75. The matchups are money. Edge: Kennedy
WR
GW, Nabers vs. SunGod, Nico
Again, Spencer has the 4-WR lineup set right now, so that would be an automatic edge, but GW and Nabers are the only two players he should start without question. Wilson had two incredible TD catches last week, and Nabers is a must-start on volume alone.
Amon-Ra always a good bet for 15-20. Nico was supposed to be back this week. If he’s in the game, he’s in your lineup. If he’s not, I really don’t see how you can keep starting Stroud with an option like Rodgers available. Oh gross, Kennedy picked up Kirk Cousins. Fine, I don’t hate that against a fractured New Orleans secondary. Fine. Edge: Spe
TE
Kincaid vs. Gesicki
Kincaid has been disappointing but not hopeless. The volume is consistently good.
Gesicki has been Burrow’s second option with Higgins out. Edge: Kennedy
K
Seibert vs. Lutz
Looks like Seibert is hurt. Lutz has a terrible matchup. Don’t start kickers whose teams aren’t favorited. They are likely to bust. Overall entropy is consistent, but you can still avoid the likely bust. Edge: Moody, Dicker, Elliott
DL
Mack vs. Hendrickson
Mack is hurt and Mason Rudolph hasn’t been taking a lot of sacks. I’d pivot.
Chase those sacks, Kennedy. Chase those sacks. Edge: Kennedy
LB
Roquan, Nakobe vs. Bobby Time
Sorry, Spencer. It’s always gonna be Bobby Time
DB
Derwin vs. Tyrique
Can’t pick against Derwin. Edge: Spe
QB
Purdy vs. Burrow
Purdy comes off bye and faces a terrible Bucs secondary. He has CMC back, which gives him an elite safety valve and opens up other receivers. Sean’s QB controversy gets a couple weeks’ rest while Purdy faces the Bucs and Hawks and Kyler gets the Jets and a bye. Sean could still recoup some value for Kyler before the trade deadline; Kyler has an amazing playoff schedule. Focusing on this week, Purdy should be good for 30.
Burrow faces the Ravens, in Baltimore, on Thursday night. It’s not an ideal spot for a must-win for Shelby. Burrow torched the Ravens once already this year, but that was with Tee Higgins scoring two TDs. No Higgins in this one means the Ravens can (and will) bracket Chase. Thursday night games are almost never shootouts, so while Burrow can win, play well, whatever, he probably can’t hit 40 this week, and even 30 feels optimistic. Edge: Sean
RB
Cook, Barkley, Conner vs. Chaad, Brown, Najee
Easy street for Sean: Cook @IND, Barkley @DAL, Conner vs.NYJ
Shelby’s matchups are more complex. Chaad vs.SF is a tough matchup in name, but the 49ers’ defense hasn’t been elite for a couple years. They’re good but beatable. They’re not fast. Chaad is. Brown vs.BAL, similar deal. Ravens have been stout against the run, but they’re dealing with injuries to their d-line. Issue for Brown is the Ravens have speed, which neutralizes his best attribute. However, you still start him because he’s the clear starter, and speed kills. One false step by a Ravens’ defender, and Brown is gone. Najee @WAS is just a good matchup, and Najee is coming off a bye following three-straight 100-yard rushing games. Edge: Sean
WR
Deebo, Puka vs. Chase, Pickens
Sean finally gets his keepers to start a game together for the first time since Week 1. The key to victory is seeing each of them finish the game. If that happens, we’re looking at an easy 30 FP.
Shelby has Waddle and Moore slated to start, but she hasn’t set her lineup yet. I don’t see how she starts Waddle or Moore with how their seasons have gone, and I don’t see how she benches Pickens after what we saw through two games with Russ. Waddle and Moore can bounce back, but in a must-win scenario, I’m leaning on proven players. As rough as Chase’s night could go against double-coverage, he is the type of player who can just get out of it and get his points regardless. No edge.
TE
McBride vs. Pitts
McBride rushed for a TD last week. He now has two TDs on the year, zero receiving.
It’s a shame and a mystery Shelby didn’t add Gesicki this week. But Pitts had actually been pretty hot prior to winning Shelby the closest-to-zero cash last week, so without London we could easily see the Falcons lean on him again. He was probably in the doghouse for fumbling that TD that wasn’t called a fumble even though it was obviously a fumble. Edge: Sean
K
Ka’imi vs. Boswell
Legitimately interesting matchup between top-5 kickers. Ka’imi missed two kicks last week, might have the yips. Edge: Shelby
DL
Van Ginkel vs. Bosa
Vikes had weird-ass gamescript last week, defense hardly played any snaps. Van Ginkel is still an elite fantasy play this year.
Bosa is a piece of shit. Edge: Sean
LB
Pratt vs. Oluokun
Pratt had been going nuts for two months, has cooled off the last two weeks.
Oluokun was the IDP #1 for two straight seasons, so we have to believe he’ll get back on top soon. Edge: Shelby
DB
Cross vs. Winfield
Cross almost got benched two weeks ago, had an INT last week. He’s an above-average DB for fantasy because of his speed and the Colts’ deficiencies in the secondary.
Winfield has been all over the ball and is due for a huge game. Edge: Shelby
DX
Sherwood vs. Alontae
Sean is grasping at straws.
Alontae is third in DB scoring. Edge: Shelby
This matchup earns GOTW status by virtue that these are the only two teams to eclipse 200 points this season. Coleman is on an all-time heater, while Evan had one good week and a bunch of whatevers. But he’s got good players, he’s clawed back from 0-4, and this week, he has a shot at the league’s best team.
QB
Hurts vs. Baker
Coleman doesn’t love his QB. He’s on the record as being interested in trading for Lamar. Part of Coleman’s all-time heater is Hurts’ all-time heater. In the four weeks since the Eagles’ bye, Hurts has 140 FP (35 per game), including 12 TDs (half of them rushing). If Coleman can stay on top, he can avoid Hurts’ only bad matchup for the rest of the season (Week 15 vs. PIT). This week, it’s Dallas. They suck. The heat continues.
Baker’s heat was even hotter than Hurts’ until running into the league’s best defense last week. When you adjust for strength of schedule and weakness of his surrounding cast, Baker is unassailably great. From Week 4 to Week 8, he scored at least 32 points every week. Week 9, he dipped to 23, and pretty much all of it was in the second half. I don’t know how long he can keep getting away with it. But he’s really good, and the offensive design is elite, so maybe he can get away with it forever? Edge: Coleman
RB
Henry, Kyren vs. Swift, Javonte
Henry has yet to score fewer than 14 FP in a single week, and Kyren has yet to score fewer than 13. Their combined floor is 37 (Week 8), and their combined ceiling is 70 (Week 3).
D’Andre Swift faces New England, who just let teeny pollard do bell-cow things, so he should be good for 20. Javonte Williams is mired in a committee and plays Kansas City this week. He might not score five points. Edge: Coleman
WR
JJ, Flowers, Addison vs. AJB, Nuk, MHJ
Jefferson and Addison play the Jags, should each have 50 yards and a TD floor. Zay Flowers plays the Bengals (remember, they suck).
AJ Brown goes against Trevon Diggs and Da’Ron Bland, who kept him in decent check last year (games of 14 and 13 FP). Nuk is going to be shadowed by Surtain, so the renaissance is on pause. Harrison draws Sauce Gardner, so add it all up and Evan gets 20-25 points from the trio. Edge: Coleman
TE
Kelce vs. Kmet
I mean, come on. Edge: Coleman
K
Tucker vs. McLaughlin
Yep.
DL
Watt vs. TBD
Doesn’t matter. Edge: Coleman
LB
Warner, Lavonte vs. Ellis, Edwards
Evan is currently benching Lavonte, which I get. He’s banged up, Baun is hot. But dude, don’t kid yourself. You’re starting Lavonte.
LB is Coleman’s weak spot, but that’s the ideal weak spot in this league. Edge: Evan
DB
Brandon Jones vs. Hamilton
Mhm. Edge: Coleman
With three teams at 5-4 and four teams at 4-5, the right results could significantly shake up the standings. Cameron could slip all the way from 4th to 8th. Spencer can move from 8th to 4th. Evan can climb from 6th to 3rd. For now, Coleman is locked in first, and Sean is locked in the top three. A loss for Kennedy could knock him down from 3rd to 6th, but a win could bump him up to 2nd.
Shelby and I are each one loss away from elimination. My known remaining games before rivalry week and the last melee are Brian, Max, and Corey. Shelby faces the Sean-Evan-Coleman gauntlet that effectively turned my tank key. Anything can happen sure, but it’s worth mentioning that Shelby faces Coleman in Week 12, when the Bengals are on bye and Coleman’s at full-strength.
Max has too many points to be eliminated this week but too few wins to get back in the mix just yet. Corey is safe from mathematical elimination this week, but at dead-last in points, he needs his stars to play lights out down the stretch.
Look, it’s too soon to treat the standings as a playoff picture, but if you’re stuck in the middle after this week, consider picking the bones of the bottom-feeders now with the potential to flip those assets at the trade deadline (December 2). I am already open for business.
