QB
Jameis vs. Baker
I understand the popular notion that Baker is better than Jameis, like that Baker is a legit starter who makes 30 mil, and Jameis is a has-been, journeyman, backup thrust into the role of starter, whatever. My hot take is that these are the same player, and that the only major difference is that Baker is from the suburbs and Jameis is from the sticks. So we tend to think Baker is a little bit smarter (read: more refined, i.e., whiter), but Jameis had the better Wonderlic score, and Jameis has played in by far the more complicated offenses since college (Jimbo, Koetter, Arians, Payton, now Stefanski/Dorsey). Jameis is also the superior athlete, a switch-hitting outfield/closer for a legitimate college baseball program, a team that was ranked fifth nationally in Jameis’s final season (in which he posted a 1.08 ERA and 31 Ks in 33 innings, notching seven saves). Get my man on one of these layups-and-threes McVay offenses, and he would have a 30 mil per year deal, too. For this week’s purposes, Jameis and Baker have bad matchups, but playing at Kansas City with Cade Otton as your best receiver sounds like the worst matchup possible. At least Jameis is at home with his full complement of weapons. I really believe this is a slam dunk positional matchup for me, a solid double-up. I am expecting the Bucs to get destroyed on Monday night. And while the Chargers are a bad matchup on paper, I’m not sure they’ve played on legit offense in seven games—in order: Raiders, Bryce Panthers, Fields Steelers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cardinals, Rattler Saints. Now, they’ve shut ‘em down pretty good; they’re not a bad defense. But I would argue the Browns’ offense is the best collection of talent and the best offensive scheme they’ve seen to this point this season. Edge: Doak
RB
Chubba (Chubb & Chuba) vs. Swekeler
The current state of my mental health is such that I fully believe Jameis and Chubb are going to turn the Browns’ season around. Chubb’s fantasy numbers are rough so far, but he looked better running the ball against Baltimore than he did against the Bengals. If you are unaware, the Ravens have the best run defense in the league, and the Bengals’ defense is trash. Chubb is shaking off the rust. This is going to be the week he goes full Chubb again. The Browns pretty much need to win out, and they have a bye next week. They’re ready to see that full Chubb knowing he’s about to get full rest.
Chuba is eventually going to lose the starting job in Carolina in the same way Rachaad White lost the starting job in Tampa, which is to say there is no starting job and their best RBs will get solid work. If only the Panthers had a QB. Praying for Andy Dalton’s finger.
D’Andre Swift is not good, but he is athletic, and he has faced some of the worst run defenses, and he will face another bad run defense this week. Eventually it’s all going to fall apart, but not this week. Austin Ekeler, I don’t know. I don’t know. He’s been pretty good at scoring fantasy points this season. He’s in the right role. But he’s barely getting the ball, he doesn’t look very good as the season wears on, but he’s the best thing Evan’s got besides starting two TEs. I would start two TEs. I am, in fact, starting two TEs. No edge.
WR
TBD vs. AJB, MHJ, and Nuk
Literally two weeks ago I was so loaded at WR that I couldn’t squeeze Brian Thomas, Jr. into my starting lineup. Evans got hurt, I dropped Downs (sans Flacco), and now Higgins and Thomas are hurt. If Higgins and Thomas can’t go, I’m currently planning to start Jerry Jeudy (go Browns) and Khalil Shakir. I would definitely have started Downs (avec Flacco) over those two. If I had one more roster spot, I might just start Jeudy and Elijah Moore (go Browns).
Evan was also loaded at WR a couple weeks ago. Godwin went down, Diggs went down, Evan traded DeVonta Smith for DeAndre Hopkins, and suddenly he’s… okay, he’s still pretty loaded, but it’s the worst he’s looked since the week both Eagles’ WRs were out. I feel okay about it if only because Harrison got his squeaky wheel game last week and has a brutal matchup against the Bears this week. AJB could feast on the Jags’ D, but they aren’t as hopeless as they were a couple weeks ago. They got their best DB and LB back the last two weeks. They’re at least a professional defense again. Hopkins faces Tampa, so I’m penciling in two TDs minimum. I might just drop Jeudy for Moore so that I have two high-floor WRs with Moore and Shakir playing essentially identical roles in games where their offenses shouldn’t need to be aggressive downfield. Edge: Evan
TE
Andrews and LaPorta vs. Njoku and Kmet
[Schwarzenegger-Weathers Predator handshake]
K
Dicker vs. McLaughlin
Whatever
DL
Hunter vs. Anderson
Except for that one crazy Pats game, they have similar stats. No edge.
LB
Ernie & Josie vs. Lavonte & Baun
Ernie till’ I drop (take it how you will). I think we’re both just hoping for solid tackle numbers and a little bit of sack upside. No edge (Lavonte’s banged up).
DB
Budda vs. TBD
Can’t keep starting Whitehead, dude. Edge: Doak
I guess I have more edges, but I think Swift and two WRs can combined can drop 70 and I don’t have any combo that can match that (as evidenced the last two weeks). This Coleman-Sean-Evan gauntlet is no joke. These are literally the three highest scoring teams in Mortydome. Super looking forward to that Brian-Max-Corey cool-down coming up.
QB
Mahomes vs. Stafford
If ever there was a time to go back to Mahomes, it’s now. Goff is on the road in Green Bay. It’s his first outdoor game all year, and it’s in Green Bay, where it will be 55 degrees, wet, and windy. Mahomes plays at home against Tampa Bay on Monday night. Mahomes has thrown an interception in every game this year, and my gut tells me this is the secondary that breaks that streak. It’s a textbook get-right game. An extra day of practice, an extra bad opponent, the best homefield advantage in the league. Should be Mahomes’ first 30-point game of the year.
Sean’s afraid of Kyler against the Bears—for good reason—and Purdy’s on bye, so Sean has to hit the waiver wire. He thinks his best option is Matt Stafford coming off a 4-TD night against the Vikings, with ten days to prepare for the Seahawks, who have been a complete joke on defense. Textbook trap game. The Seahawks have no good reason to be bad, and the acquisition of Ernie Jones should set things right. Yes, Jones played last week against the Bills. Yes, the Hawks got demolished. But the defense’s biggest weakness is against the run, and the lopsided result against the Bills had plenty to do with the offense’s inability to move the ball. The Rams’ defense doesn’t pose nearly the same threat against the Hawks’ offense. And if Metcalf is out, a shootout is out of the question. So there’s not a lot of ceiling here. You’re just stacking with Puka, which is the reverse of how you should plan your stacks. It should always start with the QB, preferably a great QB, then you try to stack a TD-scoring receiver. Like you have a Lamar and need a bye-week fill-in at WR so you throw a dart at Bateman. And if you’re chasing Stafford’s production from last week, chase the QB playing that defense this week. That’s Joe Flacco. Either way, edge: Corey
RB
Bucky vs. Saquon, Conner, and Cook
The only way Corey had any chance against Sean’s ceRBerus (took me way too many weeks to find that) was to get Pacheco and CMC back by now. And they have great matchups while Bucky plays the league’s best defense in the league’s loudest stadium. Bloodbath. 60-point edge: Sean
WR
Pittman, Terry, JSN, Mooney vs. Puka, DeVonta
Pittman is playing hurt, and JSN can’t even score one point per target. McLaurin and Mooney can probably match Puka and DeVonta. Corey maybe makes up ten points of the RB deficit. Probably gotta find room for Jakobi Meyers in here. The Raiders’ offense isn’t great, but it’s condensed to three main pieces, and Meyers is one of them.
TE
Bowers vs. McBride
Really fun matchup between top-3 TEs (significantly behind #1 Kittle), with Bowers just slightly ahead of McBride and significantly more integral to his team’s chance of winning. Edge: Corey
K
Bates vs. Ka’imi
Bates is a great pick for this week’s cash. Edge: Sean
DL
Hubbard vs. Van Ginkel
Hubbard is alternating 18-5-18-5, so it’s only logical that he scores 18.
Van Ginkel has double-digits in all but one game, so he’s due. Edge: Corey
LB
Luvu vs. Pace
I’m hoping Corey adds somebody to start over Luvu, but he’s averaging like one add/drop per week, so I won’t hold my breath. Hopefully Parsons is back.
Ivan Pace is on a tear of racking up tackles against running teams, and he faces Indy this week. Edge: Sean
DB
Bynum vs. Cross
Bynum is inconsistent but opportunistic.
Cross has fallen off since the Colts have gotten healthier in front of him. Edge: Corey
DX
Anzalone vs. Pratt
Anzalone is solid, nothing special.
Pratt had double-digits in every game until last week. Edge: Sean
I would like to see Corey give it his all this week, though I’m not quite sure what that would look like. Maybe this is his all. Okay, Luvu is definitely not his all. But everywhere else, I can’t complain. I know this won’t align with Corey’s value system, but I would trade CMC and Pacheco just to stack the deck for this week. It hasn’t been a good year, and if you lose this week, you have to win out to have a chance at the playoffs. Sell out for a shot to take down the champ.
QB
Dak? vs. Hurts
Cameron has put Dak on the block, and Jordan Love is uncertain to play this week. The only reason Love is even trying to go is that it’s a home matchup vs. Detroit. Otherwise he’d almost certainly ice it until through the bye and come back strong in Week 11. Dak faces the Falcons, who are bottom-five in all metrics related to QB pressure. Dak looks pretty good. Detroit’s defensive line is pretty hopeless with both starting edges out for the year. If Love were healthy there would be no question who to start here. Further wrinkled up in this equation is that the Cowboys play in the early window, the Packers play in the late window. If Cameron wants to wait for Love, which I think is his best move, he might need to add a QB with a later start time. The best options there are Geno and Flacco. Well, Geno if Metcalf plays. The least complicated thing is to start the Dak-Lamb stack in a probable shootout, so probably just do that. Don’t get mixed up in the QB multiverse. It’s brutal out here.
Hurts has his favorite weapons, and he has a matchup against a bad Jags team. The only issue is that the Jags might be too bad on offense to keep this game competitive. The Bengals didn’t keep up last week, but they at least presented the threat. The Jags are a joke. Eagles will take a break from the tush push and Hurts will finish around 20 FP. Edge: Cameron
RB
Pollard, Achane vs. Henry, Walker, Kyren
Yeah… I mean, at least Pollard and Achane have green matchups against New England and Buffalo, respectively, but the Bills are mislabeled based on a terrible first month, mostly the 271 rushing allowed to the Ravens. They’ve cleaned it up in the last month. The Pats are pretty awful, but Pollard is dealing with a foot injury. It averages out to maybe 30 points from the pair.
Coleman and Sean’s ceRBeri are what make them the best two teams. (If Rhamondre were more consistent, he and the Lions would put Kennedy in that conversation. Oliver and Max are on the cusp, just haven’t seen enough dominant weeks strung together, plus Max keeps benching the wrong RB.) Henry has the worst matchup vs. Denver, but the strength of that defense is their secondary, and the Ravens underutilized Henry last week (just 12 touches in a loss). I think all three heads of this monster are good for 20 touches. 40-point edge: Coleman
WR
Lamb and Kupp vs. Jefferson and…?
Lamb had a massive 35 FP last week, but it was real weird. The defense forgot about him in the end zone on one play, and then later two defenders knocked each other over. Otherwise Lamb ends up with like 15-20 FP, still fantastic. Kupp is seemingly good for a similar amount every week.
Coleman needs to upgrade that second WR spot. I mean, a 7-1 team leading the league in scoring doesn’t need to do anything, but if his goal is to max out, this is the logical priority. Doesn’t need to be this week, and you might as well wait as long as possible to avoid injuries. Let’s compare the available options:
Zay Flowers vs. DEN: Nope, no way. Pat Surtain is going to lock that shit down.
Keon Coleman vs. MIA: the namesake! Coming off back-to-back games with 15+ FP, seeing major benefits from the Amari Cooper decoy. Not a great matchup, but the Bills can force mismatches anywhere they want, and Keon can win those 50/50 balls.
Ray-Ray McCloud vs. DAL: churn ‘m. McCloud hasn’t scored double-digits since Week 1, when he scored 10.9. Coleman has to drop someone for an IDP fill-in, so this is the logical drop.
Jordan Addison vs. IND: decent matchup, Sunday night action, but Addison is, um, addled. He made the news this week for posting “Free 3,” implying he wants to be traded somewhere he can get more targets. Um, okay, dude. Still, of your options, he’s had the highest high this season (21 in Week 4; single-digits all other weeks).
Probably opt for the namesake this week. Slight edge: Cameron
TE
Engram vs. Kelce
Engram is the only healthy starter left in Jacksonville, which could work against him against an improving Eagles’ defense. Defensive coordinators should recognize that Lawrence locks in on Engram, especially on money downs. Engram really needs Brian Thomas to play, otherwise the Eagles can bracket him without giving up anything meaningful elsewhere.
Kelce is facing his kryptonite in Lavonte David, but David’s banged up, and Kelce would absolutely torch any of our other defenders there. I mean, maybe Tykee Smith can hold up, but he’s hurt, too. I like Winfield, but Kelce has at least eight inches and 40 pounds on him. God, Monday’s going to be so bad. Edge: Coleman
K
Aubrey vs. Tucker
Finally the GOAT kicker matchup! Coleman will forever regret autopiloting the Tucker pick over the Golden Domer, especially this week when Aubrey is in a dome and Tucker is outside. However, given the defensive matchups, there’s more potential for Aubrey to be all-XPs than Tucker.
DL
Crosby vs. Landry
Maxx Crosby is that dude.
Landry is a good edge rusher going against the Patriots’ garbage line. No edge.
Edge: Cameron
LB
Bolton vs. TJ Edwards
Bolton has been solid, Edwards hit or miss. Edge: Cameron
DB
Bates vs. Hamilton
If all that mattered were the odds to catch a ball thrown right to them, it would be Bates by a mile, but Hamilton is better in all the other categories, evidenced by his 24 FP last week. Bates’ variance is nuts. Edge: Coleman
DX
Jaylon Jones vs. TBD
Jaylon Jones is that yearly IDP goldmine who’s pretty bad in coverage but consistently covers the other team’s top WR, so teams throw at him all the time, and he sometimes gets his hands on the ball, sometimes gets the tackle.
Watt’s on bye, splitting up TJ time, so Coleman has to find a dude named Kyle or Harold to fill his DX spot this week. There is only one Harold, so I guess you’re going with Kyle Dugger. Easy. No edge.
It’s technically anybody’s game, but I have to lean on the RB mismatch. If Cameron cares about the league at all, he’ll let Corey rent his best players this week.
QB
Burrow vs. Stroud
Burrow is at home against Vegas, so it feels like a good week for Shelby’s focal players, but the Raiders actually have an above-average pass defense. Would feel a lot better about Burrow if Tee Higgins got back on the field. Having Mike Gesicki as your second option just doesn’t hit the same.
Stroud is kind of bad for the time being. Teams are just blitzing the shit out of him, and the Texans don’t have an answer without Nico. Honestly, if you weren’t playing Shelby this week, it would make sense to put in that Godfather offer for Burrow and Chase a week early. As it stands, Stroud faces a banged-up Jets secondary on a short week, so the Jets have no choice but to try and rush Stroud’s timing and use Sauce to lockdown Tank. Edge: Shelby
RB
Chaad and Chase vs. Lions and Rhamondre
Chaad faces the league’s best defense, but it’s likely to be a game where the Bucs need his receiving, so I’d expect 100 yards and maybe a TD. Chase faces a below-average Raiders run defense.
Lions face the Packers solid run defense in a game for the division lead, so the Lions will lean on their identity and see if they have a weakness there. The more important game between these two takes place the first week of December, when the Lions should have Jameson Williams back and thus have a more diverse attack. Expect another 40 combined from Monty and Gibbs. Seeing Kennedy start Rhamondre again just makes me more interested in seeing the Burrow-Chase trade. Still, edge: Kennedy
WR
Chase, Waddle, Moore vs. SunGod, TBD
Shelby is forced to start Waddle and Moore with Najee and Pickens on bye. Waddle was decent in Tua’s return, but Moore has been an easy bench. Chicago’s offense sucks. Moore is frustrated. You’d hope a matchup against a bad Cards’ defense is a get-right spot, but you would have also hoped DJ Moore would contribute to the blowout win over the Jags. So I don’t know. But you gotta start him.
SunGod faces a Packers defense that’s mediocre against the pass except that they are second in the league in interceptions. But Jared Goff doesn’t throw interceptions, so you figure SunGod is back to being a 15-20 FP guy this week. Again, Lions are leaning into their identity this week. Kennedy has struggled to replace Nico Collins. Here are his options:
Sterling Shepard @KC: Nope. Drop him. Go get Christian Watson (assuming Love plays), get as much of that potential shootout as you can.
Adam Thielen vs.NO: he’s Bryce Young’s favorite target, whatever that’s worth.
Alec Pierce @MIN: Vikings’ blitz-heavy approach leaves the secondary vulnerable, but Pierce tends to run clearout routes that don’t mesh well with short time to throw. So probs not.
Take it or leave it: Jalen Tolbert in the DAL-ATL shootout. Edge: Shelby
TE
Pitts vs. Ertz
Kyle Pitts definitely fumbled that ball.
Zach Ertz definitely caught that ball. Edge: Kennedy
K
TBD vs. Lutz
Shelby needs to replace Boswell.
Kennedy needs a kicker who isn’t kicking in Baltimore in the rain.
Edge: Will Reichard
DL
TBD vs. Myles Garrett
Shelby needs to replace Bosa. Sexy Dexy?
Garrett needs to redeem himself after dressing as the terminator then doing fucking nothing. Edge: Kennedy
LB
Oluokun vs. Bobby Time
Dorian Williams dudded last week, he gone.
Okereke and Wagner face each other this week. Edge: Kennedy
DB
Winfield, Alontae vs. McKinney
Winfield definitely forced that Pitts fumble, which would have led to at least four more FP. Alontae posted a season-low 7.5 FP last week. Elite DB pair.
McKinney leads the league in INTS, but Goff doesn’t throw INTs. Edge: Shelby
This one gets game of the week status because it’s probably the tightest final score. I’m predicting an upset win for Shelby. Sorry, Shelby. That almost guarantees you the L.
QB
Caleb vs. Lamar
Literally couldn’t rig a better week for this matchup. Caleb faces the garbage Cardinals, and Lamar faces the dominant Broncos. Edge: Oliver
RB
Mixon, Robinsons vs. Jones, Kamara, Jacobs
ceRBerus showdown! In terms of matchups, they’d rank Kamara (@CAR), Bijan (vs.DAL), Jones (vs.IND), BRJ (@NYG), Mixon (@NYJ), Jacobs (vs.DET). Dead even. No edge.
WR
TBD vs. Cooper, STA
Right now, Oliver is starting Olave and Doubs, but with five green WR matchups, it’s worth opening up his options.
Olave @CAR is an autopilot pick: he was the highest drafted of these guys, and Carolina has been trash. It’s probably a trap. Carolina has already been destroyed by the Saints once this season. Olave is so obvious that he’s probably the most likely option the Panthers will take away. They neutralized him in game one, and there’s no Shaheed to worry about this time.
Doubs vs.DET has legs. He’s been a big part of the offense since squeaking that wheel, and Detroit’s corners are whatever. But among your money-green matchups, he’s your weakest talent.
Keenan @ARI gives you the stack with Caleb, and Allen has led the team in targets since Week 5 (when he got healthy enough to be a full-time starter). He’s maxed out at 41 yards, while Moore, Odunze and Kmet have maxed out at more than double that. Cards should have Sean Murphy-Bunting back in the slot, so I wouldn’t expect a big Keenan week.
Davante vs.HOU on a short week is by far your best play. Lazard is out and the Jets need to win. The Jets will move Davante all around and just rely on the mind meld.
Sutton @BAL is a heat-check and probably too cute if you’ve got Olave and Adams as options. Plus, Baltimore will have Humphrey and Wiggins back and will be hungry to make up for all the dropped picks last week.
So it’s Olave and Adams if only to avoid leaving points on your bench next to names that obvious.
Max has no choice but to start Cooper and STA and pray for a Bills-Fins shootout. I imagine that goes poorly. Edge: Oliver
TE
Hockenson vs. Otton
With Kittle on bye, Oliver finally gets to cash in on the Nico Collins trade. Hockenson will be active, and it will provide a wrinkle to the Vikings’ offense that the Colts aren’t ready for.
Otton put a target on his back last week. There’s no possible way the Chiefs give Baker that easy button when he hasn’t proven he can win while having to lean on these backup WRs. Edge: Oliver
K
Koo vs. McPherson
Dome shootout kicker, yes please. Edge: Oliver
DL
Zach Allen vs. Chris Jones
Allen has been solid for an interior DL.
Chris Jones’ variance is too much for my blood. Three games with just one point, but two double-digit games. He’s been wrecking plays and letting his teammates clean up. But DL is a crapshoot anyway. Might as well bet on him to get home against Baker. No edge.
LB
Spillane vs. Zaire
Total fucking monsters. Spillane leads the league in solo tackles, Zaire leads in total tackles. No edge.
DB
Nixon vs. Joseph
Interesting week for the KR scam with Detroit scoring a bunch of points, but Bates has a monster leg. Might not see a return for Nixon.
Max and Oliver both betting on splash plays, Max way more likely to get one. Edge: Max
DX
Quincy vs. Hines-Allen
Quincy has been pretty mediocre for fantasy. I’d ditch him.
Hines-Allen hasn’t done shit, but the Eagles are playing their backup LT. Edge: Max
It’s pretty clearly Oliver’s game to lose, pretty clearly the end of the road for Max. Get those Lamar offers ready.
QB
Jayden vs. Josh
JD’s only TD came on the last play of the game last week, and it doubled his final score. But he’s magic. The last time he played the Giants it was his worst full game of the year, the Giants are weaker on defense now, and the Commanders are stronger on offense.
Josh Allen’s last game against Miami was the game that should have ended Tua’s career. This one should be more balanced and force Allen to play a full game, which means he’s scoring around 25. But there’s shootout potential, which is not the case in WAS-NYG. Edge: Spe
RB
Breece, JT vs. JK, STA, Mostert
Brian traded Diontae to Spencer in exchange for Etienne, so there’s a chance Brian slots in the new RB right away just for the dick-swing of it all. He would prefer to start Tyrone Tracy, but Tracy is in the concussion protocol, and the Giants seem to actually be adhering to it. As it stands, they’re questionable, so we can’t count on either. Breece should feast if he plays like he did against the Pats. The Jets likely limited his workload thinking they’d win and save him a little for a short turnaround. Taylor has a terrible matchup, but I you don’t bench that guy.
JK Dobbins is Spencer’s only starting RB right now, but why? Mostert and STA-KC are scoring TDs. This is the year of the RB. Pound that fucking rock! Edge: Spe
WR
Reed, London vs. GW, Nabers
I’m just going chalk with Brian’s options. McConkey just had a huge game, so maybe you flex him if the RBs can’t play. DK could play, so you’d start him over London (even though there’s shootout potential, you figure Diggs has London locked down). But you’ve got Reed needing a bounceback game, so you just keep starting him so you don’t miss it. And then McMillan, ugh, McMillan is probably the Bucs’ top target this week with Otton getting special attention, so maybe. I’d prefer Large McCockey in your dick-centric matchup this week. How many dick puns can we get before the week is over? Breece Hall = Beast Hog, DK Metcalf = DK Meatshaft, Drake London = Dick Long-One—that’s all I’ve got off the dome; I’m on deadline. I believe in you.
Spencer, keep it simple. Start the legit good WRs and leave that rookie mayhem alone until you’re either a little higher or a little lower in the standings. Edge: Spe
TE
Kraft vs. Kincaid
Kraft has been on fire.
Kincaid has been TD-dependent. Edge: Brian
K
Dicker (do it) vs. Seibert
Seibert is the #1 kicker by a full point per game. Edge: Spe
DL
Burns vs. Mack
Burns is on a four-game sack streak.
Khalil Mack is solid if unspectacular. Edge: Brian
LB
EJ and Logan vs. Roquan and Nakobe
The E stands for Elbert, so edge: Spe for name quality alone
DB
Branch vs. Derwin
Branch is what we dreamed Derwin would be. Edge: Brian
I figured I would have Brian winning this one, but it looks like Spencer has it if they start the RBs. Not quite a ceRBerus because the name-value is such trash, but the points are up there with our other ceRBeri.
Speaking of edges, I’m tempted to avoid watching the Sunday games just to have that need for Monday’s game. Can’t imagine how else I’d actually look forward to it. Just gotta fiend for some football. Bucs just gotta withstand two more beatdowns before we hit the bye and then get back on the upswing to close the year. Good luck this week, everyone.
