Monday night was amazing. And awful. I have two fantasy teams. I was leading one (ours) but unlikely to win. I was trailing the other but likely to win (the guy only had the Chargers’ kicker left). The Bucs were playing the Ravens, and I was all-in for the Bucs. The first drive of the game ended in a Mike Evans TD. It was glorious. And then… oh, and then… Mike Evans comes within inches of scoring a second TD, which would probably have delivered a win for me over the best team in Mortydome. Instead, Evans leaves, Baker throws an ugly pick, and everything suddenly gets very dark. The Ravens proceed to erase us from the face of the Earth, but in slow motion, one by one, that Thanos shit but instead of snapping his fingers and doing it all at once, he does it like 10% at a time by cracking each knuckle. I die a little bit with each one. But I lead for so long before that huge Henry run (and even lead by a little still after that), and in my other league I lead until the final minute! In about three hours, I live and die twenty times and end that night (at 9pm lol) just completely wrecked. And our boy Godwin’s foot detaches from his leg during a final minute drive that was almost definitely not going to win us the game. We still needed a TD and another onside kick and a FG just to tie. Just to fucking tie. But look, I’m not mad about fighting the good fight. It’s football. It’s not like surviving that game was going to keep Godwin healthy all year. He could have easily slipped on a banana peel in the locker room next week and missed the rest of the season anyway. He’s a football player. You could see it in his expression after finding out his ankle was dislocating. He was just like, “Aw, man, that’s some shit.” Granted, adrenaline. But still. You could tell he was ready for something like this. It’s happened to him before, albeit the details were different. He had the demeanor of a guy who knew this was just a bump in the road. I really admired that. I feel fine about our season. I don’t feel fine about the next three games, but I feel fine about everything that comes after the bye. I feel like we’re still right there with Atlanta for the division, and that’s what it’s going to take to make the playoffs, and this team understands that. This whole era of Bucs football is gravy anyway. I’m having a great time. But if you’d talked to me Monday night, you’d get a different take. I think, for me, this is all a byproduct of parenting. Perpetual reset. Everything is always changing anyway. In that vein, let’s look back on all that’s happened and has merely tangential influence on what comes next.
Best record: Coleman, 6-1
Best win streak: 4 (Coleman & Brian)
Longest L streak: 5 (Max, active)
Highest High: Evan, 216 in W6
(next best: Cameron, 198)
Lowest Low: Spe, 82 in W4
(next worst: Shelby, 93 twice)
Highest Low: Coleman, 141
(next best: Brian, 131)
Lowest High: Spe, 155
(next worst: Corey, 157)
Lowest score in a win: Corey, 109
Highest score in a loss: Max, 166
Most transactions: Doak, 87
(next most: Spencer, 36)
Fewest transactions: Corey, 7
(next: Evan & Max, 11)
Most messages: Doak, 427
(next most: Cameron, 212)
Fewest msgs: Corey, 17
(next fewest: Sean, 29)
Rosters resemble their owners, which explains why so many of Corey’s players have been inactive. (sick burn, Doak; thanks, Doak)
QB
1. Spencer → Max, 33.9
2. Max → Evan, 26.7
3. Corey → Spencer, 25.7
4. Coleman → Doak, 24.3
5. Shelby → Coleman, 22.97
6. Doak → Brian, 22.91
7. Sean → Oliver, 21.2
8. Kennedy → Corey, 21
9. Brian → Shelby, 19.6
10. Evan → Cameron, 18.6
11. Oliver → Kennedy, 18.5
12. Cameron → Sean, 17.8
RB
1. Corey → Coleman, 61.3
2. Brian → Max, 53.3
3. Coleman → Sean, 53.2
4. Sean → Kennedy, 45
5. Oliver → Oliver, 43.4
6. Max → Cameron, 32.6
7. Kennedy → Brian, 31.3
8. Spencer → Shelby, 25.1
9. Shelby → Doak, 24.5
10. Cameron → Corey, 20.7
11. Evan → Spencer, 20
12. Doak → Evan, 19.2
WR
1. Shelby → Evan, 49.1
2. Evan → Doak, 36.7
3. Brian → Spencer, 35
4. Oliver → Kennedy, 32.9
5. Spencer → Shelby, 32.8
6. Cameron → Coleman, 32.3
7. Sean → Brian, 31.9
8. Max → Corey, 29.7
9. Doak → Cameron, 25.7
10. Coleman → Oliver, 22.2
11. Kennedy → Sean, 22.1
12. Corey → Max, 19.5
TE
1. Coleman → Oliver, 12.4
2. Kennedy → Corey, 11.7
3. Shelby → Evan, 9.5
4. Oliver → Brian, 9.5
5. Spencer → Sean, 8.4
6. Sean → Shelby, 7.1
7. Max → Spencer, 6.3
8. Corey → Max, 6
9. Cameron → Kennedy, 5.9
10. Evan → Doak, 5.8
11. Doak → Coleman, 5.4
12. Brian → Cameron, 4.6
K
1. Coleman → Cameron, 15
2. Cameron → Sean, 12.8
T-3. everyone else →
3. Spencer, 12
4. Kennedy, 12
5. Corey, 11.7
6. Coleman, 10.3
7. Doak, 9.27
8. Oliver, 9
9. Max, 8.21
10. Brian, 8.19
11. Shelby, 7.5
12. Evan, 7.4
DL
1. Coleman → Coleman, 17.2
2. Corey → Corey, 15.4
3. Kennedy → Cameron, 11.1
4. Cameron → Shelby, 10.8
5. Spencer → Sean, 9.8
6. Shelby → Evan, 9.2
7. Brian → Kennedy, 8.1
8. Evan → Brian, 7.5
9. Max → Doak, 7.4
10. Sean → Max, 6
11. Doak → Spencer, 4.1
12. Oliver → Oliver, 2.4
LB
1. Spencer → Cameron, 21.6
2. Kennedy → Oliver, 20.4
3. Shelby → Evan, 20
4. Cameron → Spencer, 18.6
5. Evan → Kennedy, 18.5
6. Max → Brian, 18.1
7. Coleman → Sean, 17.9
8. Doak → Doak, 15.5
9. Oliver → Max, 14.3
10. Corey → Corey, 12.6
11. Brian → Shelby, 10.7
12. Sean → Coleman, 7.4
DB
1. Coleman → Brian, 16.7
2. Shelby → Kennedy, 10.3
3. Spencer → Doak, 10.2
4. Sean → Shelby, 10
5. Brian → Oliver, 9.6
6. Cameron → Max, 8.9
7. Doak → Sean, 8.6
8. Kennedy →Cameron, 8.1
9. Evan → Coleman, 7.9
10. Oliver → Spencer, 7.4
11. Max → Corey, 5.22
12. Corey → Evan, 5.21
Evan 146 → 163
Coleman 164 → 157
Oliver 140 → 155
Sean 150 → 152
Shelby 127 → 152
Doak 133 → 149
Brian 146 → 145
Corey 127 → 140
Kennedy 151 → 136
Max 150 → 132
Spencer 129 → 132
Cameron 140 → 130
Draft Highlights
Added Kyler for a 7th pre-draft
Chubb in the 6th
BTJ in the 8th
Draft Lowlights
0-for-4 on rookie RB lotto tickets
Post-Draft Rank: 12
10th in the melee 122-164
Chuba trade goes splat (6 carries, two points), I drop him like summer-semester Econometrics. Likely has 23 on the bench, 2 TDs for Mike Evans, season-high 16 from Khalil Mack, season-high 15 from Logan Wilson
L to Cameron 113-198
40 from Kyler nets me a future 3rd, my only other double-digits from BTJ, Prater, and post-draft add Budda Baker (season-high 15). I thought I was done for the season with the Kyler trade.
W over Kennedy 118.26-118.2
Narrowest margin in MD history, headlined by season-high 16 from Gardner Minshew and a resounding 32 from Chuba, who I re-added the Friday before the game. Gibson and Likely outscore Andrews and Rhamondre, and I offer Gibson for Andrews on Tuesday.
W over Oliver 133-130
Andrews scores zero again, but Fields scores a season-high 33. 20 for Evans, 24 for Chuba, very little elsewhere. BTJ scores 20 on my bench in some epic foreshadowing of my eventual downfall.
W over Spe 177-110
Acquired Tee Higgins for Burns and a 9th pregame. 20s from Geno, Mike, Higgins, and BTJ. Season-high 15 from Kendricks, season-high 16 from Reichard, could’ve broken 190 if I went with my gut and started Flacco.
L to Shelby 123-141
Flacco and Downs combine for 40, LaPorta has one catch for 13 points, BTJ flatlines, and Mike Evans’ hamstring does what it does.
L to Coleman 146-166
Season-high 28 for Javonte on Thursday night gives me hella hope. I was thiiiis close to adding a bunch of Broncos before Thursday’s game and thought better of it. I’d have at least gotten Nix, Javonte, and Barton for 76, enough to shatter the cash game by themselves, probably enough to deliver the matchup win, too. Instead, Mike Evans’ hamstring goes all the way, somehow I’m still up 13 with four minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Derrick Henry breaks off an 81-yard run, I’m still up four through the third quarter. The rest is history. Had I decided to go with what I know about Evans’ hamstring, I would have started BTJ for an extra 12. Had I not accepted the cursed LaPorta, I’d have started Andrews for an extra 14. In that alternate timeline, I win by 6. Instead, I’m on the ropes heading into the second half of the season.
At 3-4, I’m not last in the standings, and I’m not last in scoring, but I did recently lose to the team that’s last in both of those categories. I don’t have the high-end firepower Shelby does, and I just lost my best player for at least four weeks. Okay, my best players are Brian Thomas and Chuba Hubbard, which further proves my point. I was doing all right while avoiding injuries, but now that the injuries and soon the byes come for me, I don’t technically see myself finishing last in the regular season, but I also don’t see myself getting 177 again or getting lucky again in the kind of narrow margins that brought me my other two wins, and I do see myself selling as many pieces for as much as possible come trade deadline time.
Draft Highlights
Traded an 8th to keep Winfield late.
Chase-Burrow stack in Rounds 1 and 2.
Oluokun in the early IDP run.
Nick Bosa in the 9th.
Waddle-Moore-Pickens-Najee picks early didn’t lead to early wins, but they could lead to late wins or to future picks.
Draft Lowlights
Pitts-AR at the 3-4 turn. Never go full-Gator.
Post-Draft Rank: 4
11th in the melee 111-172
7 from Burrow in the lineup, season-high 36 from AR on the bench. Season-high 17 from Oluokun. Season-high 15 from Waddle. Winfield gets hurt. Shelby loses faith in the Bengal stack early.
L to Oliver 93-144
12 from AR in the lineup, 22 from Burrow on the bench. 15 from Bosa, 10 from Olu, single-digits from everyone else. Shelby’s faith in AR unshaken.
L to Spe 93-155
6 from AR in the lineup, 35 from Burrow on the bench. 27 from Chase in the lineup, 10 from DJ, 11 from Najee, single-digits from everyone else. Shelby comes to her senses re: the QB sitch.
L to Brian 141-145
72 from three Bengals, including Chase Brown added pregame. Season-high 16 from Bosa. Shelby gets a whopping one point combined from her K and TE (granted, the loss was still coming; Brian benched 21 FP on Monday night chasing the cash game).
W over Max 197-149
Burrow and Chase combine for 90, Brown adds another 16. Pitts season-high 13, Shelby’s IDPs combine for 61, evenly distributed after she adds Dorian Williams, Jamel Dean, and Alontae Taylor in one fell swoop. Shelby’s slide stops at 0-4.
W over Doak 141-123
The Bengals score 42, Chris Boswell scores 19, Winfield returns with 17, Najee season-high 22. Shelby somehow ignores the Steelers’ ascent.
L to Corey 117-137
The Bengals score 38, Shelby leaves 70 on the bench in favor of starting Jaleel McLaughlin, Jaylen Waddle, and Trey Sermon over established starters (okay, even if Rachaad isn’t an established starter, she left 40 on the bench from her Steelers for a Dolphin sans Tua and the Broncos’ backup RB).
At 2-5 and last in scoring, Shelby is realistically one loss away from missing the playoffs. She’s biding her time, which is reasonable and respectable. Don’t sell until you have to, don’t buy when you’re this far out. With Tua back, with Russ making the Steelers offense more functional, with the Bucs almost certainly leaning on Chaad and Bucky for the next three weeks, Shelby’s kind of got a squad again. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a little run keep her alive a little longer. But she lost to Corey, so I can’t rank her above him.
Draft Highlights
#1 pick Christian McCaffrey—kidding, but what else could you do? Answer: Justin Jefferson, always Justin Jefferson from here on out.
Brock Bowers and Aidan Hutchinson were actually awesome picks. And by the grace of god, Bowers remains on his feet after seven weeks.
Darnell Mooney has been up and down, but for a ninth, you got an everydown player whose QB loves him.
Buck Irving first pick of the late-round keepers, especially clutch since I was going to take him three picks later.
Jared Goff in the 14th might be your best player now.
Draft Lowlights
Mahomes, Pittman, and Parsons were reaches then, and they look worse now.
Zeke was a massive reach even in the 10th, but then you actually started him a bunch of times?!
Post-Draft Rank: 6
12th in melee 107-187
Started McCaffrey when the news came late that he wouldn’t play. Pacheco season-high 16. Great IDP game. Zeke scored a season-high 12 on the bench, which is what gave Corey the gall to start him the next few weeks.
L to Kennedy 136-170
Pacheco scores 16 and goes down. Season-high 95 yards for Singletary, season-high 31 from Hutch, Mooney starts to shine (on bench)
W over Cam 120-116
Mahomes season-high 24 (yuck), Singletary season-high 18, Bucky breakout (on bench), McLaurin reemerges (on bench)
W over Spe 109-82
Pittman season-high 16 (gross), Jordyn Brooks’ unprecedented 21 is the difference. Parsons and Singletary get hurt.
L to Oliver 127-154
Corey finally starts an optimal lineup (minus Mooney’s season-high 26 but understandable), season-high 21 for Bowers, Jakobi Meyers gets hurt.
L to Coleman 157-164
Goff season-high 32, Bucky season-high 24, McLaurin season-high 20, Jake Bates 20-point bye-week fill for Butker, bench full of red letters and bye weeks. Hutch snaps his leg in half or else Corey probably wins this one.
W over Shelby 137-117
30 points from DL and LB playing IDP roulette in free agency, pretty much the difference between winning and losing
Corey’s 3-4, but he’s scored just 0.29 more points than Shelby through seven weeks, and 20 of that just happened. As we can see, Corey had scored above 150 just once, has by far the lowest score in a win (and also the third-lowest score in a win). The way Corey has been winning is unsustainable, and his team isn’t getting healthy again soon enough to get him into the playoffs. I would have ranked him last if not for the H2H.
Draft Highlights
Lamar (despite whiffing on the keeper value, though I would have traded for the pick ahead of you anyway)
Zaire Franklin
Julian Love had one bad week, otherwise pretty great (I know because he’s on my team now)
Jameson breakout happened (because of drugs)
So many bell-cow RBs
Draft Lowlights
Your whole WR deal
Lawrence over Goff
Post-Draft Rank: 5
1st in the melee 187-07
37 from Crazy Legs, season-high 24 from STA, 57 from the RB Cerberus, season-high 22 from Julian Love, season-high 16 from Singleton, season-high 29 from Mason (on the bench), season-high 24 from Jameson (also bench)
W over Evan 179-35
Face-melting 49 from Kamara, season-high 16 from McPherson, and the wheels just fly off in every direction
L to Sean 119-124
34 from Lamar, 18 from Kamara, 13 from Mason, and dick from everyone else, unless you count the double-digits from literally the entire bench. The difference in this game was Max starting STA despite no QB in Miami.
L to Coleman 166-183
75 from the RB Cerberus and an awesome back-and-forth between Jameson and Ken Walker on Monday night, which Walker ended up dominating 34-17 (the exact difference in the final score)
L to Shelby 149-197
Max ditches LaPorta for Likely in a controversial trade that later curses my Week 7 matchup, gets 43 from Lamar in a shootout with Burrow, but Shelby wanted it more.
L to Kennedy 122-154
Beginning of the end for Jordan Mason, who suffers a shoulder injury and misses the second half. Also might end up being the last good game for Jameson.
L to Cameron 125-136
Max just can’t score anymore. #FreeLamar
Max is 4th in scoring, 9th in the standings. He’s second-to-last in scoring in his last three games, winless in his last five. The bright side is that STA and Amari Cooper go from Huntley and Perv at QB to Tua and Allen. With Lamar and three bell-cow RBs, two legit #1 WRs would be enough to make this a real team again. Of the teams likely to be on the playoff fringe in the end, Max would have the points tiebreaker and squeak in. He might even be able to afford two more losses. Not consecutively. Well, in this league, maybe.
Draft Highlights
Cameron more or less runs it back with last year’s playoff squad, and it basically works out.
Great value for IDPs Crosby, Warner, and Bolton.
Brandon Aubrey is never going later than the 8th round again.
Draft Lowlights
Dak was always a reach
Worthy not gonna happen
Kirk Cousins lol
Post-Draft Rank: 11
5th in the melee 145-124
21 targets for Kupp right out of the gate, season-high 22 for Aubrey, season-high 19 for Worthy (on the bench)
W over Doak 198-113
Season-high 30 for Achane, season-highs for Crosby, Warner, and Bates leads to 85 IDP points and 18 more from Aubrey. 20 for Lamb basically a season-high.
L to Corey 116-120
Season-high 32 from Dak, season-high 11 from Thielen (whose hamstring exploded on the play where he got all his points), another 12 from Aubrey, season-high 13 from Bolton, and obviously not a lot else. Cameron tries to replace Evan Engram with Dalton Schultz, fails miserably.
W over Sean 134-121
Hands Sean his first loss since 2023 regular season, season-high 20 from Lamb, season-high 19 from Pollard, another fucking 12 from Aubrey, and total crap from another TE flier Conklin. Still, this was the most important win of the year at this point.
L to Evan 126-150
50 from the IDPs, 15 from Ekeler, 21 from Dak, garbage otherwise.
L to Brian 127-131
0.92 from Dak easily the worst QB output this year, probably won’t be beat, 12 from Engram in his return, 19 from IDP Adebo as a bye-week fill-in. Insane for Cameron to treat this like a playoff roster and trade for a QB (Love) but he didn’t send a pick, so I guess it’s a good move.
W over Max 136-125
Bigsby season-high 29 and a combined 33 from the Love-Wicks stack or else Cameron would be walking to the nearest bridge right about now. Still not a playoff team but technically a playoff team since some of us are such dog shit.
Cameron hasn’t broken 140 since Week 2, but half of his starting lineup is past their bye. The points should start coming again, and Cameron already has a winning record. He’s got some bye weeks behind him, some significant injuries behind him… I just can’t call this a playoff team. We’ve seen just how lean things get when he has to use his bench.
Draft Highlights
Worth noting that Evan more or less missed the draft, making picks under the table at a birthday dinner.
Absolutely nails the WR-heavy approach, hits on all five of his first picks. Sadly, injury luck sunk him.
Lavonte and Will Anderson 9th and 10th were beautiful.
Baker in the 16th was a throwaway, but it worked.
Draft Lowlights
It’s possible that punting on RB screwed you, but I haven’t done the math.
Post-Draft Rank: 7
8th in the melee 125-157
23 for Love, 23 for AJB, 20 for Godwin, 16 for Diggs, wow. But 40 on the bench from Baker. Believe in the Bucs from day one, you start your year with a win and maybe everything changes. With 0.4 from Marvin Harrison in Week 1, and only seven points away from a melee win, there were a lot of ways Evan won this one in the multiverse.
L to Max 135-179
In this timeline, AJB goes down and Love sprains his knee and Evan has to turn to Baker, good for 19. 24 from Godwin, 15 from Charbonnet spot-starting, and 12 from Will Anderson. 29 from Marv on the bench, but it wouldn’t have been enough.
L to Brian 134-169
Baker duds with 6 against the Broncos, who fortunately turned out to be an elite defense. Charb season-high 28, double-digits from all four starting WRs.
L to Kennedy 139-188
Just terrible schedule luck to go with terrible injury luck. Evan just gets pummeled by the highest scorer two weeks straight while other teams are winning with like 120 points. Baker scores 33, Lavonte season-high 23. Swift reemerges with 26 on the bench.
W over Cam 150-126
Baker drops 32, Swift drops 23, McLaughlin season-high 16, Lavonte 16.
W over Spe 219-155
Breaks this season’s scoring record by 20, nabs 7th highest score of all time. Season-high 20 from Kmet, AJB comes back with 21, Swift 21, Diggs 17, Will Anderson season-high 28, a fucking goose-egg from Marv but who cares. Combined 68 from Baker and Godwin, 28 more from McLaughlin, Whitehead, and Lavonte. Evan gets very, very into joining his fan interests with his fantasy interests. Trades Jordan Love for Ekeler and Warner.
L to Oliver 119-137
I think we all thought Evan had the cash game in the bag, and if we’d known Baker would have 34, we would have been convinced right there. But it was a bad night for Evan’s other Bucs. McLaughlin missed a 55-yarder, the Bucs went for two a couple times, Whitehead did basically nothing, most notably allowed the massive bomb to Bateman that blew open the game, looking like Sabby Piscatelli out there. Njoku season-high 17, AJB has 20 in three of three games, but DeVonta scores below zero, Ekeler sucks, and Evan is back to being pretty bad.
Evan is in a similar spot to Max, and I honestly only have him ranked above Max because Cameron beat Max and Evan beat Cameron. I like the individual players, and Evan always seems to make the right move when he needs it. So I can’t count him out. But if he loses just one more game, I’m willing to call it over early. I’m just not expecting him to score enough points to win a tiebreaker.
Draft Highlights
Breece over Bijan
The whole drama where he picked DeVonta and then asked for the pick back and then picked DK right in front of Oliver who was about to pick DK. Now DK is hurt and Oliver has Davante so maybe somehow it all worked out.
Tee Higgins kicks off a WR run followed by Odunze, Pickens, Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper.
Jayden Daniels with MY fifth rounder.
Jayden Reed is kind of a good pick, but Brian would have been happier taking Thomas Jr. there.
Draft Lowlights
A lot of bullshit picks, basically all the ones not mentioned above. And no IDPs or K. Definitely chicken-saladed that thing real quick with a Brian Branch pickup and a Brian Burns trade. It is a good year for players named Brian.
Post-Draft Rank: 9
7th in the Melee 131-132
Hadn’t figured out QB yet (started Tua over JD, net loss of seven points), hadn’t been sucked into Jayden Reed yet (net loss of about 20).
L to Sean 140-186
DK season-high 22, weak shit at QB (JD’s worst game before Week 7 injury) and IDP forces Brian to churn his non-Brian IDPs Mosley and Quay
W over Evan 169-134
JD explodes for season-high 36, JT season-high 30, Brian finds Al-Shaair and Diontae in free agency.
W over Shelby 145-141
Brian benches two Monday nighters for a shot at the cash, otherwise he wins by 25. Brisker has a season-high 23. WRs absolutely rake and Brian gets confident enough to trade away Higgins for Burns and a 9th.
W over Coleman 170-141
Brian adds Tucker Kraft for an immediate 23, London embarrasses the Bucs for a season-high 29, Al-Shaair hits season-high 18. Coleman’s first loss.
W over Cameron 131-127
Brian again benches a Monday nighter (Breece) but almost loses when Tyler Bass misses two kicks. Would’ve won by 25 with Breece. Branch season-high 23.
L to Kennedy 134-138
JD huwts his wibs and can’t pway, season-low six points. Brian’s flex options, including bench, take a fat shit. Suddenly QB and depth are an issue, but IDP is strong.
Brian’s situation is very 2023 FSU. He’s having a great year, playing well enough to beat anybody. He handed Coleman his sole loss. But we don’t know how long Jayden Daniels is out, and we don’t know how he’ll play when he comes back.
Draft Highlights
Josh Allen 1.05
Malik Nabers in the 3rd
Roquan fourth IDP off the board
Dobbins in the 11th
Terrel Bernard in the 12th
Draft Lowlights
Shoulda traded Tank Dell at his peak last year
Etienne in the 2nd looks like a hurricane-speed whiff.
Odunze pick a bit of a bust considering Nabers gets that keeper spot next year and Odunze tends to be fifth in the Bears’ pecking order behind Moore, Allen, Swift, and Kmet.
Post-Draft Rank: 2
6th in the melee 132-131
37 from Allen, 16 from McLaughlin, 24 combined from Roquan and Bernard, 22 from Dobbins on the bench. Pretty worrisome otherwise in an unconvincing win.
L to Coleman 137-178
12 from Allen as the Bills’ run-heavy approach becomes apparent. 27 from Dobbins, 24 from Nabers give you hope for the future once everything else clicks, but since we’re all in the future together, we know that it did not, in fact, click.
W over Shelby 155-93
Season-high 46 from Allen, 24 from Nabers again, season-high 14 from Derwin, season-high 21 from Odunze on the bench. Again, false hope rears its ugly head.
L to Corey 82-109
League-low total this year. Under eight points for Allen, Etienne hurts his shoulder, Nabers gets concussed, Odunze scores a single point his first time in the lineup, Spencer finds a gem in Seibert, whatever that’s worth (spoiler: nothing so far)
L to Doak 110-177
Spencer adds STA-KC but refuses to start him. Wouldn’t have been enough anyway. The team begins to show its myriad weaknesses, mostly in the flex spots but kind of all over. Spencer trades Ekeler for Mostert and a future 8th.
L to Evan 155-219
Back to respectable scoring, 29 from Allen, 21 from Dobbins, season-high 15 from Dell, 21 from GW, but just the fifth-highest score of the week, so it’s not like suffering Evan’s historic week was the worst luck.
L to Sean 130-151
Another strong game from Allen, 18 from Seibert, 31 from Roquan and Bernard, but jack shit elsewhere. Spencer wins if he starts the Chiefs’ workhorse RB over the Panthers’ maybe-third-best player, but who could have known that in advance?
Josh Allen is doing a lot of the heavy lifting to get this ranking. Spencer is 2-5 and not scoring points. But it’s my fucking note, dammit; I’m calling my shot.
Draft Highlights
Kittle in the 4th, the seventh TE off the board.
Caleb in the 7th, snaked from the mid-keeper rounds, with the pick I traded for Kyler no less.
Brian Robinson and Chase Brown 9th and 10th (shoulda held Brown just a little longer, but I wouldn’t have either)
Draft Lowlights
Beefed the keepers and traded them for dirt. Nico for a 10th still makes me sick. Oliver spent it on Hockenson, so the jury’s still out.
Keenan Allen was a total bust for five weeks, but he may have redeemed himself for delivering a win over Sean.
Post-Draft Rank: 8
9th in the melee 124-145
We’ll never know how Herbert would have fared had he not fucked up his plantar fascia before the season, but since he did, he was a terrible pairing with the rookie QB. Mixon scores season-high 32, Nixon scores season-high 19 without even getting any KR scam, everyone else is pretty awful, but had Oliver started Brian Robinson out of the gate (benching Aiyuk was a pretty safe bet after the holdout), he would have finished 6th in the melee.
W over Shelby 144-93
Herbert a decent 16, the Robinsons continue to dominate, most of Oliver’s lineup hits double-digits, but no one passes 20. IDP flier Robert Spillane is a revelation, season-high 18. Mixon and Kittle go down.
L to Coleman 118-162
Oliver starts Caleb for 21, Olave season-high 19. Nothing on the bench can save you when Coleman wants to buzz you down.
L to Doak 130-133
Actually an insane loss for Oliver thanks to a couple weird happenings. This was the week Adams started faking his hamstring injury. It was the only week I started Fields, and it was Fields’ best week by far. Oliver dropped Younghoe Koo for no fucking reason, and Koo scored 9 more than the guy Olive replaced him with. Oliver also made a really weird IDP add, starting Carl Granderson (who is fine but not someone we should target considering maybe 15 DLs start for us league-wide).
W over Corey 154-127
Breakout from Caleb good for 31, Aiyuk reemerges for 21, Kittle for 18, Koo comes back with 17.
W over Sean 173-129
Season-high 38 from Caleb, stack with Allen for another 19, Mixon returns with 28, Kittle for 18 again, 25 from Bijan, Oliver survives a league-low -1.5 from Olave.
W over Evan 137-119
RBs combine for 74, season-high 27 from Bijan, honestly not great otherwise but that was almost a league-high in RB production for a week.
To put it simply, Oliver is getting hot at the right time. He’s riding the longest active win streak as of the writing of this note, and it’s sustainable. He’s going to have enough wins by the trade deadline to trade for a little security (not too much!) if he needs it (IF YOU NEED IT).
Draft Highlights
Trades a 10th for the right to keep Nico late and stack with Stroud.
“Big-brain” decision to draft three Lions pays off huge.
IDP-heavy mid-round mayhem reunites Bobby Time
Draft Lowlights
Dudes named Jaylen or Ja’Lynn
Nix-Franklin dream deferred
Ditching Chuba early
Post-draft, Kennedy trades Chuba Hubbard for Romeo Doubs, doesn’t start Doubs once before dropping him. Side-note, Romeo Doubs: huge bench slut. Drafted by Coleman, traded to me later in that same round, goes to Kennedy, dropped, added by Oliver, still hasn’t sniffed a starting lineup.
Post-Draft Rank: 10
2nd in the melee 172-111
Stroud-Nico stack started hot, as did Gibbs-Monty. Jake Moody season-high 27. Rhamondre season-high 24.
W over Corey 170-136
25 from Bobby time, 15+ from all three Lions, 40 from Stroud-Nico
L to Doak 118.2-118.26
Originally projected to score 170 again, he had 60 combined from the Lions, 23 from Stroud-Nico, 30 fucking points from the other seven guys, zero from Mark Andrews. Kennedy adds Jauan Jennings after his 37-pointer.
W over Evan 188-139
60 from Stroud-Nico, 57 from the Lions, 23 from Bobby Time, season-high 14 from Myles Garrett, Kennedy trades Andrews for Gibson and adds Ertz.
L to Sean 114-176
Jauan Jennings scores two points. Gibson scores nine. Nico goes on IR. Kennedy lets down the entire league.
W over Max 154-122
Stroud for 24, Lions for 55, Lazard for 22, Ertz over 10 for the first time, Bobby Time for 19. Jauan Jennings gets hurt. Xavier McKinney’s INT streak ends at five games.
W over Brian 138-134
Stroud scores four points, Lions score 63. Kennedy cashes and wins in tree-falls-in-the-forest drama when nobody in our league witnesses the back-and-forth between Breece and Lazard that ends with two late first downs for Lazard before Rodgers turns the ball over and the Steelers close the game out with an epic eight-minute drive.
I love watching Kennedy work. The Nico trade, the Lions stack, the ugliest good bench you’ve ever seen. I am really excited for The Two Brothers who are just regular brothers meeting for the first time in a non-regular-season contest. I think we’re headed there.
Draft Highlights
Coleman turns three extra 2nds into Henry, Hurts, and a future 2nd. Gets pretty lucky Mahomes doesn’t fall to him in the mid-second because Hurts has been way better. Shoulda taken Lamar but no one’s perfect.
Draft Lowlights
Honestly a lot of picks after the second didn’t work out; Coleman is getting most of his production from his early picks and keepers. Trading Olave and Mixon for Kyren and a 2nd didn’t hurt one bit. Can’t hate on the Watt, Hamilton, and Tucker picks, but they haven’t been otherworldly.
Post-Draft Rank: 3
4th in the melee 157-125
Double-digits from 9 of 12 starters, season-high 19 from TJ Edwards, new Seahawks’ offense makes Ken Walker a bell-cow.
W over Spe 178-136
33 from Hurts, season-high 22 from JJ, season-high 13 from Danielle Hunter, double-digits from 9 of 12 starters again.
W over Oliver 162-118
Henry’s first 100-yard game, season-high 24 for Rashee (RIP), season-high 34 from Kyren (ugh, against Oliver, too, so much disrespect), it becomes clear Coleman is a freight train and we are all Chris O’Donnell in Fried Green Tomatoes. Coleman takes first place and never gives it back.
W over Max 183-166
In what should have been a meeting of undefeateds, Coleman hits a season-high, starting Sam Darnold for 28, season-high 40 from Henry, season-high 34 from Ken Walker, 21 from Kyren, 17 from JJ. Filthy, wicked stuff. Max never recovers.
L to Brian 141-170
With Hurts on bye, Darnold scores 4.66 against his old team. The RBs combined for 55, Watt season-high 18, but it’s not nearly enough against Brian’s season-high. And friends, that’s what it takes. That’s the standard if you want to go toe-to-toe with Coleman this year. It was his season-low by 15 FP.
W over Corey 164-157
Season-high 33 from Hurts, season-high 20 from Flowers, season-high 14 from Tucker (weak), 15 from Watt, 11 from Hunter-replacement Landry.
W over Doak 166-146
Hurts scores two tush-push TDs, Henry, Walker, and Kyren combine for 75, Hamilton season-high 12. Coleman only needs 11 starters to crush me.
I’m not saying it. I am not saying it. You can’t make me, and I won’t, and we’ll just leave it at that and move on.
Draft Highlights
Trades a 6th to keep McBride late, which has added future value because of the new three-keeper rule.
Saquon at 1.12 is nice, but Henry at 1.12 would have been legendary.
Saquon, Cook, and Conner are everything. Had Sean stayed balanced and taken pretty much any of the top WRs left (minus Godwin), he’d be pretty close to last place right now.
Purdy at 7.12 is good, but Purdy at 8.01 probably had more value. Watson at 8.01 is looking like a fat pile of nothing.
Ka’imi Fairbairn easily the best fantasy kicker not named Brandon Aubrey.
Draft Lowlights
Pretty much all other picks are injured or dropped by now.
No IDPs and unlike Brian, Sean failed to find much magic outside of Van Ginkel and the occasional booms from JOK. (Nick Cross is fine but fading.)
Post-Draft Rank: 1
3rd in melee 164-122
Barkley scores 3 TDs, most of Sean’s players are in double-digits, each of his RBs get 20+ touches, and his lowest score is a five. Puka goes down. Purdy looks like shit but against a good defense.
W over Brian 186-140
RBs combine for 64, Shaheed scores 21, Deebo 17, McBride season-high 15, Ka’imi season-high 22, and just 3.5 from Stafford gets that fool fucking cut, never to be added by anyone again. 12 and 14 from Fields and Purdy on the bench pushes Sean to move a future 3rd for Kyler (mwahahaha).
W over Max 124-119
First Kyler game goes for just under 20, Barkley has 36 for the second time in three weeks, Shaheed and Ridley combine for 1.9 in Deebo and Puka’s stead. Purdy has 37 on the bench. Van Ginkel joins and scores 11.
L to Cameron 121-134
Just under 10 for Kyler, to my sheer delight.
W over Kennedy 176-114
Sean starts Whittington for 13, JOK season-high 21, season-high 22 from Shaheed (RIP), 16 from Van Ginkel, 40 from Cook and Conner with Barkley on bye.
L to Oliver 129-173
60 from Purdy and Deebo on Thursday night, but by Monday night Sean was so beyond done that he didn’t even bother starting anyone over injured Cook. The excuse was that he couldn’t cut Whittington.
W over Spe 151-130
20 from Purdy, 30 from Barkley (revenge game), combined 3.4 from the WRs, season-high 27 from Conner, season-high 22 from Van Ginkel, 26 each from Maye and Kyler on the bench. Whittington scores zero.
A couple losses can’t stop destiny. This is Sean’s three-peat season. We’re all just witnesses.
What is the opposite of a game of the week? Spencer is riding a four-game losing streak, Max is riding a five-game losing streak. I’m picking Spencer because we’re due for an Allen blowup spot, and we just had Lamar blowup spot last week. Also Allen’s matchup with Seattle is way more likely to shootout than Lamar’s with Cleveland (I mean, I need it to be for Jameis’s sake, but it’s not as likely).
Dobbins and Kamara face each other, and the Chargers are in wayyy better shape than the Saints.
It’s a slight bummer for Spencer that Max is starting Josh Allen’s shiny new toy, but that shiny toy also draws attention from all the receivers with whom has already established rapport. Kincaid is also due for a big game. The targets have been there. With the exception of Garrett Wilson, Spencer’s whole team is due for a bounce-back. Even Wilson played poorly despite the okay fantasy showing. Spencer’s waiting for someone to trade for Hareem Kunt, but I don’t see it happening. Start him or drop him. You need the points or the karma. What’s it gonna be?
Max has the better matchups, and he has the return of Tua. He should 100% bench Kamara for Jacobs, bench Kamara for anyone until the Saints have a real QB again. But if it’s Kamara, great. My prediction is more likely to happen. And Isaiah Likely is over dude, I’m sorry to be the one to have to break it to you.
Mostly I’m just rooting against Max because I want him to be eliminated from the playoff hunt while there’s still time for Lamar to save me from being eliminated from the playoff hunt.
Oliver’s just too hot, and Brian can start Bo Nix against the Panthers the week after they allowed 27 FP to Mariota in three quarters, but it feels like a trap. Denver is too high on their own poop fumes, and Carolina is out of fucks to give. They’re going to let Bryce Young fling it, and even though the Broncos’ pass defense is the best in the league, they’re going to dog it, and Adam Thielen is going to take advantage. I still remember when Brian drafted Bryce Young last year. I know there’s a shred of belief in there. Maybe I’m just regretting picking up Jameis over Nix. I honestly don’t know.
But yeah, Caleb is back from bye, Oliver’s going back to the stack with Allen, he’s got Davante one week deeper into the mind-meld redux with Rodgers, he’s got a bench full of WRs begging to get in, but there’s just no room with Mixon at RB and the Robinsons clogging the flex spots. One way Oliver is playing it very smart right now: not rocking the boat, not tinkering. The temptation must be igniting your insides, though. Stay strong.
It’s probably good that Jayden Daniels is out this week. The Bears defense is in a select group capable of exposing the rookie’s weaknesses. Hopefully Daniels misses three more weeks so he doesn’t have to face the Bears, Giants, Steelers, or Eagles. After that, he’s got a pretty easy schedule.
Brian’s been pretty hot, but in addition to Daniels, he lost DK Metcalf for at least a week. He probably starts Breece at RB, Reed and London at WR, and flexes Diontae and McMillan (assuming Jonathan Taylor doesn’t play). It wouldn’t be crazy to start Braelon Allen somewhere in there. The Patriots are very bad, and the Jets need to do what they can to take the ball out of Rodgers’ hands in easy wins.
Brian has the better IDPs, but Oliver’s got the goods. With Caleb and the RBs pouring in 70-80, I think you’re better off with solid reliables than with chasing something in free agency this week.
Oh shit! I didn’t realize we were getting this one this week! This is a faceoff of the top two teams in the league, granted Coleman will stay in first place unless Kennedy wins by 95. Coleman’s points lead is that steep. If Kennedy loses, he can only realistically fall as far as 4th. But it would be a lot cooler if we had a tie on top of the leaderboard heading into the second half of the season. A nice little reset. The individual matchups are intriguing:
Hurts has his weapons back, but he has a somewhat tough matchup. Stroud is coming off his worst game as a pro, on the road against a blitz-heavy Green Bay defense, but now he’s back home, facing one of the worst defenses in the league, one that almost never brings extra bodies. Should be able to carve them up nice. I’m thinking Hurts scores 20-25, Stroud 30-40. Edge: Kennedy
Coleman has a bunch of Ravens @CLE, Kennedy has a bunch of Lions vs. TEN. Both pretty good defenses, but the Titans’ offense cannot move the ball at all anymore. The Lions should dominate T.O.P. and generate 40 FP for Gibbs and Montgomery. Amon-Ra has had at least 12 in every game since his weird no-show in Week 1. I want to believe Cleveland can contain the Ravens’ offense. I want to believe Cleveland’s whole team will be galvanized following last week, that the Ravens will be suffering a little bit of a hangover from the insane Monday night game. This is the kind of game the Ravens usually lose. As I’m writing it, I’m not really believing it. But I want to believe. Edge: Kennedy
Coleman’s edge is early in the week with Jefferson and Kyren on Thursday night. Actually a pretty terrible spot for both of them. Minnesota hounds the run, and if anyone knows how to neutralize Justin Jefferson’s role in this offense, it’s the guy who invented that role for Cooper Kupp. Respectfully, Jefferson isn’t Kupp (iykyk), but the principles that get him open are the same, and Sam Darnold is no Matt Stafford. The Rams can strategically eliminate Jefferson by leaving other things pretty wide open, and I think it’s worth it. No edge for Coleman there, sorry.
Coleman’s edge is TJ Watt going against maybe the worst line in the league, and the QB who loves getting sacked more than any other currently healthy QB. Other than that, it’s all Kennedy in this one. Not enough to win by 95, but enough to co-throne it with his brother, setting up the nastiest little bash-brother parcheesi for the rest of the regular season.
Yeah, I know it’s unlikely, but let me make the case.
Burrow and Chase (and Brown) are in a shootout with the Eagles, so we’re going to see another mega-stack explosion, a solid 70 from those three. Tua returns, Waddle probably chips in 15. Kyle Pitts feasts against Tampa again. Shelby starts Chaad for sure. It’s going to matter who she starts among Najee, Pickens, and DJ Moore. Maybe you can squeeze all three. Maybe Najee is your new Derrick Henry. Pickens is definitely getting multiple deep shots from Russ. DJ Moore is most likely getting some squeaky wheel treatment after he was left out of the scoring bonanza in London. Waddle is whatever. Arizona has been surprisingly competent on defense. Chase Brown is electric, but he’s still a timeshare RB with a tough matchup. Russell Wilson’s impact on the Steelers’ offense is undeniable. He’s the reason they’re blocking better, he’s confident throwing those deep shots, he’s giving the whole team so much confidence, I just couldn’t possibly sit their best two players after what they did to the Jets’ defense. If you’re sitting anyone for Brown or Waddle, it’s DJ Moore. Chicago’s offense is not good, and DJ Moore has been underwhelming in all but one game (against the worst team in the league). A squeaky wheel is only worth the quality of grease the offensive coordinator is cooking with, and Shane Waldron… metaphors aside, he’s terrible.
Shelby has the IDPs and K to go to-to-toe with Cameron. Cameron has the plus-matchups for Love and Bigsby, while Kupp and Lamb probably get insane volume. Shelby might have a little breathing room from Cam’s RBs, but there’s also a case to be made that Achane and Bigsby go nuts. Pollard probably dudding (despite wicked volume) leaves Shelby margin to make one wrong move, but that’s probably it.
Odds-on favorite to be the lowest scoring matchup of the week. The Bucs should be fine against a weak Falcons defense. Baker has no fear, and the rest of the offense feeds off that. I don’t know that the passing attack will be where the points flow from, but there will be plenty of passing yards, and passing yards tend to lead to passing TDs. With the trade deadline looming, it’s worth it for the Bucs to see exactly what these receivers can do. I don’t believe the Bucs’ defense is as bad as it’s looked, but I do believe it will look bad through our Week 11 bye (ATL this week, KC and SF the next two, then mercifully the bye). The offense will need 30+ points per game, which it’s done four games in a row. Yes, I know who’s not going to play. I don’t care. Baker doesn’t care. He’s going to fire that thing, we’re going to run it well, and focusing on this week, we’re gonna score a lot of points. Evan doesn’t have a choice but to stick with Baker, but it’s a good choice regardless.
I know I said Evan’s team is bad earlier. I’m regretting planting that flag this week in particular. Next week is a much better week to plant that flag. This week is not great, but it’s probably a 140-point week, enough to bring Evan’s record even with Corey’s after this matchup. ‘Cause Corey’s got nothing. Bucky is banged up, Goff and Mahomes are able to play ball-control and cap their ceilings, Corey’s WRs have bad matchups, bad QBs, or both, except maybe Mooney. Bowers will draw bracket coverage from the Chiefs’ elite D. And Corey’s IDPs are just the worst. Evan’s IDPs are sick and they have either sick matchups or super-saiyan motivation to dominate their opponents.
I know it makes sense to look at my team and woof. I know starting Jameis against the Ravens would cause most people to break out in hives. For some reason, I feel great about it. Like actually, unequivocally great. And I feel great about bringing Taysom back into the fold. The Saints have to give him at least a package of QB plays this week after what Rattler has done in Carr’s absence. Did you know Brian Thomas is sixth in WR scoring? Sixth! And Tee Higgins has averaged 16ppg the last four weeks. Javonte plays the Panthers. The only thing I’m nervous about is Chuba Hubbard, and he’s the #12 RB on the season.
What’s making me feel really good, though Sean is unlikely to stick with it, is seeing Kyler Murray in that starting QB spot. Sean’s going to start Purdy against Dallas. Dallas sucks. Miami’s defense is pretty good, and with or without Kyler in the lineup, Sean is relying heavily on the Cardinals’ offense. But the fact that Sean wants to get in my head brings me peace. He feels vulnerable. He thinks he needs an edge. I’m in his fucking head! And I took the liberty of putting some Monday night action at the bottom of my lineup, just that little bit of fear lasting as long as possible. What makes me more dangerous: I legitimately do not care if I win. I’m just here to play games. And that, friends, is the real edge.
