Shelby continues her familicidal rampage this week, her recovery of self in the process. Corey’s team has remained competitive, despite all the injuries. It’s not great, definitely not consistent, but having lost a player per week to IR, you’d expect a complete bottom-out by now. Instead, he had his highest score of the season last week. He didn’t win, but that’s par for the course across Mortydome this year. Outside of a melee, you don’t want to be in that 4-6 range in scoring. You’re destined to be facing one of the top three teams in that case. You want to be that lucky team that’s playing against complete crap. I have to imagine that this is the matchup where we get our complete crap this week. It’s a toss-up, but I’m betting on Shelby’s Bengals to figure it out again. I don’t like betting on division matchups, but I’ll take Shelby’s matchups over Corey’s.
Corey’s best matchup is probably Mahomes @SF, coming off the bye, the Super Bowl rematch. The narrative is strong. But these teams have each other’s blueprints, and the 49ers are more likely to treat this like a playoff game than the Chiefs are. Maybe that forces Mahomes’ hand, but I don’t think the Chiefs have any urgency to win this game. They’re 5-0 and in complete control of their division. I just don’t see a scenario where they are pushing the ball downfield and running up the score, and I don’t see the 49ers’ offense finding all the answers against the Chiefs’ defense. I see like a 27-23 game where one team is throwing the ball to the endzone in the final seconds. Mahomes can throw three TDs, score 30, but nothing face-melting, not enough for a significant win in the positional battle over Burrow.
(Unless Burrow has a bad game, which, if we’re talking about urgency, is unlikely. The Browns are basically packing it in, potentially rushing Chubb back as a means to drum up trade interest as they tank for a QB and restock the warchest to rebuild the roster for the post-Perv era. The Amari Cooper trade was just the first step. Maybe they keep Chubb to satsify the fans, to save face, whatever. They keep the franchise guys is Chubb and Garrett and start shipping other pieces out. I think they’ll keep Garrett. Holding onto an aging RB coming off a significant injury is just not what teams do, ring of honor be damned.)
Michael Pittman is pretty bad, and Anthony Richardson doesn’t make him better. Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels make each other gods. Brock Bowers is the only game in town for the Raiders. JSN and Darnell Mooney are full-time players who won’t hurt you. Either would be an ideal second flex, a solid 7-10 with a (rare) ceiling upwards of 20. If Bucky Irving were playing anyone but the best run defense in the league, then he and McLaurin might give you enough, like they did last week.
Shelby doesn’t have it any better. We like the Bengals against anybody right now, but if Cleveland is running the ball and not scoring any points, there’s no impetus for the Bengals to light up the scoreboard. Najee and Pickens face the new-look Jets, Russell Wilson will be the QB… it’s not bad, it’s just not a recipe for ceiling.
Corey’s IDP situation is disgusting. He’s playing without Parsons and Hutchinson, he’s gotta replace Diggs for the bye… his linebackers are fucking handsome, but I don’t know that they can give your lineup real juice outside of a points-per-dimple scoring format.
That’s Shelby’s edge: Bosa, Winfield, and Alontae Taylor are lighting it up. And Dorian Williams isn’t quite as handsome as Corey’s linebackers, but he matches them in tackles, and we get points for those.
All in all, I think it’s a tight game between the league’s lowest scorers (cut to: me scoring less than either of them for a second straight week).
But it doesn’t mean Brian will lose. It just means his team is playing well enough to deserve better schtick. There’s no good reason for Brian to lose. Kennedy doesn’t have the horses, and the Lions have a bottom-5 RB matchup, so even when Gibbs and Montgomery touch the ball on half of Detroits’ plays, it should only amount to about 140 yards and a score, about 10 FP down from what Kennedy usually gets from the pair. Enough daylight for Brian to get through because there is nothing else going on here. Stroud performed well against a broken Pats team, and the Packers aren’t great on defense, but they have homefield and the weather. The point is: it’s not probable that Kennedy will outscore Brian. Of course he can. Of course Lazard can lead the Jets’ receivers in scoring this week. But why would he? Kennedy’s best hope is that Rhamondre can play, which is a bleak sentence.
Brian’s matchups are sick. With the exception of Breece Hall, it’s shootout city. He has CAR@WAS (Jayden, Diontae), SEA@ATL (DK, London), HOU@GB (Reed, Kraft)—yeah, speaking out of both sides of my mouth negging Stroud while touting the shootout, fine. Stroud is probably fine. But Brian is beyond fine. He’s hot as hell. The whole club lookin’ at Brian right now. The only issue: all of his IDPs have a questionable tag, while Kennedy’s are good-to-go. I’m not convinced any of them miss this week’s games, but it’s the only issue I could ID. Kennedy’s starting Lazard, Ertz, and Lutz. In the year 2024, all that’s winning you is a game of Scrabble.
Max just can’t keep losing. I mean, he totally can, and maybe even will because of some bad RB matchups, but Cameron’s team wasn’t a QB away from being a contender. The Love trade and the return of Cooper Kupp keep the ship from sinking, but Cameron’s also starting Pollard, Worthy, and Bigsby. He thinks he’s starting Achane, but I’m not sure he clears concussion protocol this week, which means Tyler Allgeier is in. BUT Cameron has really strong IDPs, strong enough that he was able to trade away Fred Warner without having to hit the waiver wire to replace him.
Let’s make Max’s case.
Lamar needs to work the Bucs’ secondary, which feels likely. The Bucs’ run defense is the weakest we’ve seen under Bowles. Committing the extra resources to stop the Henry-Lamar battery is going to open something up, especially if Jamel Dean can’t go. Tyrek Funderburk played admirably against the Saints’ backups, but do I even need to dot that i? And KJ Britt can tackle, but dude cannot cover. The Lamar-Likely stack should come through.
Alvin Kamara needs to be the Saints’ whole offense, which feels likely. Carr, Olave, and Shaheed are out. You’re telling me the Saints are drawing up a gameplan that relies on Spencer Rattler standing up to the fifth-best defense in terms of pressuring the QB (not to mention second in sacks)? And even when he does get the ball out, it’s in tight windows to Bub Means and Juwan Johnson? No. No no no. Kamara is going to touch the ball 30 times. Even if it’s total garbage, it’s an easy 100 yards and probably a score.
Some Trash Asshole needs to burn the Colts’ secondary, which feels likely. The Colts have the fifth-worst pass defense in the league, and it’s not getting better. The Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare for this game. They are going to figure out how to feed their best player.
Jameson Williams needs to get behind the Vikings’ defense, which feels likely. The Vikings’ secondary is strong but not fast. Their pass-rush gets home quickly, which makes deep shots tough to come by, but you only need one 50-yard bomb and that’s 13 FP for Jameson.
Josh Jacobs doesn’t need to do anything special, which feels like his M.O. Against all but the best defenses he’s faced this season, he’s been between 13 and 21 FP. Just do that against an average Texans run defense.
Either Jordan Mason or Aaron Jones need to play, which… we just don’t know. Mason allegedly practiced in limited capacity Wednesday, Jones will allegedly practice on Thursday, but we can’t trust these coaches or their practice reports. Max has backed up Jones with Ty Chandler, but the Vikings just traded for Cam Akers. I would drop Goedert for Guerendo and make my decision Sunday morning. I don’t want to start RBs against the Chiefs or the Lions, so maybe Max is better off starting Amari Cooper in his first game as a Bill? I would say if either Mason or Jones are healthy, I’m starting one of them, ideally Mason but either is fine.
Max needs better IDP luck, plain and simple. His guys had great games last week, but it didn’t translate to fantasy points. Kerby Joseph had an INT called back on a penalty, Montez Sweat got robbed of a full sack, and Josh Hines-Allen had a sack wiped away by penalty. That’s like 12 points. Max still sould have lost last week, but who knows what an extra 12 would mean this week?
The real X-factor in this game is the player unavailable due to bye week. What hope does Cameron really have without Brandon Aubrey?
Similar to Max, it’s just time for Spencer to win a game again. I don’t see a clear path for that to happen, but the fantasy gods either want to fell Sean or test his mettle. Spencer hasn’t set their lineup yet, but I think it’s obvious what they need to do. QB Allen duh. RB Dobbins duh. WR is where it would get interesting if Spencer didn’t have literally only RBs on the bench. You have to start Dell and GW. You don’t have to start Legette. You can… you can… but I think you’re better off going with Mostert and another RB in those flex spots. Ideally, James Cook sits. You start Ray Davis and steal the points right off Sean’s plate. Short of that, I don’t want to recommend something I wouldn’t do myself, but there’s plenty of things I would do that no one else would recommend. In that grey area exists the second-coming of Some Trash Asshole in Kansas City. In a context where we only care about fantasy points, it is the obvious move.
Sean can’t compete with that. Brock Purdy is going to choke against the Chiefs. They didn’t quite make a fool of him, didn’t quite have his number, but the 49ers’ leading receiver in the Super Bowl, the only player with more than 49 receiving yards, was Christian McCaffrey. Without that cheat code (CMC caught all eight of his targets, including a TD), Purdy completed just 50% of his passes at 5.8 yards per attempt. Ugly stuff. Borderline unfuckable. Sean can always start Kyler at home against the banged up Chargers on Monday night. He has that in his back pocket.
Without getting 30+ from his QB, Sean’s dead in the water. The RBs have bad matchups again (if they even play), and Sean can’t figure out WR to save his life. Last week, he started Calvin Ridley, who had zero catches on eight targets. This week, he’s starting Pop Douglas because everyone else is hurt. He could also start Whittington or Watson, but it’s all the same. Watson is the ceiling play, but the floor is zero. Douglas’s ceiling and floor are within like three points of each other. Whittington is a black box.
Let me expound on the Saquon matchup. The narrative is revenge game, but for one, the Giants’ defense is pretty good, and more importantly, if it’s a revenge game for anybody, it’s the Giants. Who’s more eager to prove they don’t need the other party? Saquon doesn’t have a chip on his shoulder. He didn’t even want to play for the Giants last year. He certainly wasn’t planning on playing for them again. They didn’t spurn him. He spurned them. The defense is going to want to make that statement. The Eagles are going to win this game by 20, but the Giants are going to make their Saquon statement.
Goodbye, my playoff hopes. I’m not rolling over, unless perspective is reality. I’m certainly getting turned over like I’m locked in a bathroom with Mr. Jellybean. Either way, the result is the same. I’m getting destroyed whether I fight back or not. All I can say for myself is that I’m still not turning to Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers. I still have my pride. Coleman has all the right matchups. I’m not even doing a jinx thing. Every one of his matchups is a significant plus, and his players are good anyway. The Giants are going to let Hurts beat them over Saquon, the Bucs are going to let Henry beat them over Lamar, the Lions and 49ers and Falcons and Raiders can’t stop Jefferson and Kelce and Walker and Kyren from beating them, the Jets’ rookie right tackle can’t stop TJ Watt, and I don’t think the rest matters. I think Coleman can sit on his bye week LB until he sees whether he needs the points on Monday night (there will still be four teams to choose from). I’m starting two Bengals’ LBs. I’ve never been less committed to a starting lineup than I am this week. At least when I was throwing garbage at the windows in Weeks 1 and 2, I knew what my identity was (Oscar the Grouch), but now my identity it just, like, I hope these guys are good this week. I’m lost. At least that trash can felt like home. Now I’m just crawling along a frozen lake, snowblind, losing sensation in my extremities as everything goes dark and yet somehow I am warm and covered in boundless light. Cosmos without hatreddddd
Sorry, Evan. I know the narrative was that you would get hot and get back into the playoff picture, but it will have to wait a week. For one thing, Oliver needs it more, and for another, you’ve got the wrong guys on bye. I really can’t see how Austin Ekeler and David Njoku fill the void left by Swift and Kmet. Ekeler probably needs a week to recover from the beating he took against Baltimore, and Njoku is getting covered by the best LB duo in the league (until SirVocea Dennis comes back). Sure, Baker and Godwin are facing a Ravens’ pass defense that ranks bottom-five in most categories. Sure, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are going to be the ones scoring all the fantasy points when the Giants focus everything on shutting down Saquon. Sure, Stefon Diggs is CJ Stroud’s go-to guy now. Sure, your IDPs are good for 40, minimum. But we’re talking about Oliver here. We’re talking about the guy that doesn’t tap out even when 250 pounds of blonde viking are choking him out, begging him to just tap out. You’re not just up against Justin Herbert making it rain in Arizona on Monday night, or Davante Adams reuniting with Aaron Rodgers, or the Robinsons facing two of the worst run defenses in the league, or George Kittle assuming his rightful place as far-and-away TE1, you’re up against the motherfucker who won’t quit, who refuses to die by any hand but his own, the man who stabbed the king just to taste the blood. I can’t really illuminate the specifics. Maybe it’s Younghoe Koo for 20, or Kei’Sean Nixon finally getting to return a kick due to the swirling wind. One way or another, you’re going down.
