The Jets have a top-five defense and a mediocre offense, so obviously they fired the architect of the defense. People think it’s to satisfy Aaron Rodgers, and maybe it is. But now what? Well, now Rodgers gets to save the team. The defense won’t be as good. It’s impossible. So Rodgers will have to play better, and guess what. Guess fucking what. Magically, now that the head coach who actually gives him shit is gone, he’ll have a clear mind and the ability to concentrate when the game is on the line. Rodgers threw three picks against the Vikings. The narrative is that Rodgers is operating on old information, that Flores’ defense shows pre-snap looks designed to appear familiar to Rodgers, then, you know, he changes them. Bullshit. Rodgers missed one fucking season. The game didn’t pass him by in one season. I think he tanked the game on purpose to force the Jets to make some moves. One hitch in this theory: the Davante Adams trade is still not complete. That part doesn’t make sense to me, but I imagine the problem is the Jets’ unwillingness to meet the Raiders’ demands. Vegas wants a 2nd and a 4th, and the Jets don’t want to give up that much. If that’s the hold-up, the Jets are fucking dumb. There is no playoff window. There is one season. If you don’t go all-in, you’re out. You’re out for years. It’s been 14 years since the Jets made the playoffs. What are we attempting to preserve by haggling over a 4th round pick? Just make the trade already. (Yes, this means it’s time to add Rodgers in fantasy. I might even do it myself before I publish the note, not out of advantage but sheer desperation. I’m not convinced Justin Fields keeps the Steelers’ job, and I’m starting to worry that the Seahawks high-flying offense just isn’t schemed up to NFL standards. So I’m pulling the plug myself. Bearings? Never heard of her.)
Side note: I think it’s time to stop being afraid of the Jets’ defense. I think the playcalling was a major factor in their success, and I think they’re still good but leaning more towards average than elite, and above-average defense that I wouldn’t start, like, a Patriot against but pretty much everyone else is fair game.
The rookies are coming. Jayden arrived day one, Caleb took a few weeks, and Drake Maye is next. I’m ignoring Bo Nix mostly out of spite for Sean Payton. By starting Kirk Cousins this week, I’ve pretty much guaranteed that Michael Penix will hit the field before Kirko Chainz can take me to the playoffs. JJ McCarthy would have eventually taken Darnold’s job. (Okay, one more Jets note: let’s talk about how they completely dismantled an offense that was unstoppable for the first four weeks of the season, against some strong defenses. The Jets defense was on their way to another elite season. Dumb fucks. Dumb fucking fucks.) Don’t ignore Spencer Rattler. He was once touted as the next Mahomes. That obviously isn’t happening, but the tools are there, and this offense is begging for someone who will push the ball downfield more than once per game. The Saints got away from what made them great the first couple weeks, and having a clean slate at QB is a sneaky advantage. He has no tendencies, not that any opponent would be aware of, and he doesn’t need to do anything pre-snap. Carr wasn’t doing anything pre-snap. He just needs to point and shoot, the quikcer the better. I think the Saints are aware that the Bucs secondary is beatable, that if they can make their move before the pressure gets there, that there will be open space, missed tackles, room to run. I’m not betting on it, but I’m not sitting here thinking, oh cool a rookie QB we can annihilate. I think the Saints’ offensive coaches will be able to catch the Bucs off-guard early, and I think Rattler can keep plays alive and fire downfield once the scripted stuff runs out. I would bet on the Bucs getting taken advantage of early but then getting their sacks and turnovers later on, ASSUMING the Bucs’ offense finds its spots against the Saints defense. If the Saints stuff the run and play tight man and the defensive line gets their hands up on every passing play, then I think the Bucs are in serious danger of getting wrecked about as bad as they did in the Broncos’ game.
Circling back, yes, Drake Maye is on my list of QBs to panic-add this week. Just gotta read the Fields tea leaves and make a pecking order for Dimes, Rodgers, and Maye.
Injuries and bye weeks are changing the landscape. Tua’s injury tanked all the Dolphins, which knocked out a first-rounder and two seconds. Kennedy got crushed without his Lions, and with Nico Collins landing on IR, his Texans stack is severed. Corey just lost another player as Pittman’s back might land him on IR. My team is probably winning because it’s the only one to avoid major injury so far (seriously, cue Kirk Cousins, fuck). Brian similar story. Full strength against Coleman while Coleman’s figuring out how to replace Rashee Rice. Coleman’s solution—start all the Vikings—is now on bye. Every time Sean finds an answer at WR, that dude gets hurt or goes on bye. And so on. Bye weeks are important. You shouldn’t base your team-build around them, but you should be aware that the teams that go deep into the playoffs often have the later bye weeks. If you have early bye weeks, you have a regular season advantage. Kennedy had to tank Week 5, but now he gets his three Lions every week while the rest of us are starting our backups.
Week 5 was the most explosive week of the season. It’s reflected in our scores. Will the trend continue, or will we go back to seeing five teams score 120 points and two of those teams end up winning?
QB
Lamar faces a Commanders defense that is going to feel pretty good about itself after handling the Cardinals and Browns, but respectfully, those games won’t prepare you to face the Ravens’ offense. Washington knows their offense will have to win them this game. It’s going to be another shootout, another 30+ from Lamar.
Stroud plays at New England, and he does it without Nico Collins. Two broken offenses clash on the worse, more run-heavy offense’ home turf. The Drake Maye mystery box is cute, and maybe it would be the perfect gameplan to come out firing bombs and running read-option, but that would require New England to install a whole new offense with a rookie QB and no offensive line. This game will be the opposite of a shootout. Stroud’s good for 20, but 30 is the absolute ceiling. Edge: Max
RB
Jacobs, Kamara, Mason for Max.
Lions and Stevenson for Kennedy.
Jacobs is facing a Cards’ defense that’s bad all over with no real hope of getting good, not against the run anyway, because in addition to being bad, they are small. Kamara is facing a stout Bucs’ run defense behind a terrible Saints’ o-line. Mason is facing a Seahawks defense that has been embarrassed against the run two weeks in a row. Mason is also playing on a short week, which means he will probably split carries again like he did Sunday. Teams are adjusting to the lack of recovery time by limiting usage on both ends of the short week. Bad news for Max because the Seahawks will be more focused on fixing the run game than on winning the game.
The Lions come off the bye and head to Dallas. The Cowboys just lost another defensive end, and they’ve been absolutely awful the two times they’ve faced real rushing offenses. Another 30+ combined from Gibbs and Montgomery. Rhamondre… is… complicated. He is probably past the fumbling thing. He probably earned his starting job back. He might be hurt. If he’s hurt or if the Pats get blown out, he’s not getting enough work to score more than 10 FP against a good Texans D. Still, edge: Kennedy
WR
Kennedy starts Amon-Ra, Max starts Jameson. Jameson is going to be covered by Trevon Diggs, or Da’Ron Bland will be back. Amon-Ra is going to be covered by anyone but those guys.
Max starts Amari Cooper, Kennedy starts either Lazard, Jennings, Pierce, or a free agent. Amari Cooper is getting a bunch of targets. Eventually the points will follow. Kennedy might add Xavier Hutchinson to keep the Stroud stack alive, but with Pittman and Downs looking doubtful this week, maybe it’s finally time to give Alec Pierce a shot. Edge: Max.
TE
Max starts Dallas Goedert, who goes back to being kinda trash behind AJB and DeVonta.
Kennedy starts Zach Ertz, I guess, though I’m trying to engineer a trade where Kennedy gets the whole Lions’ offense. So maybe he starts LaPorta. Or Schultz for the stack with Stroud. It’s also a good week to add and start Pat Freiermuth. He’s on a TD streak, and TE is becoming more of a focal point of the offense. Edge: Kennedy
K
I was going to add Lutz after waivers, but Kennedy beat me to it. So now I think Lutz sucks. Edge: Max
DL
Max starts Montez Sweat and Josh Hines-Allen against some terrible o-lines in the London game. Kennedy starts Myles Garrett on two bad feet. Edge: Max
LB
Edge: Bobby Time
DB
Max starts Kerby Joseph, who has three INTs in four games.
Kennedy stars Xavier McKinney, who has a five-game INT streak. Edge: Kennedy
QB
Sean could stack Purdy and Deebo on Thursday night against a reeling Seattle defense that can’t tackle, but instead he’s stacking the whole Cards’ offense on the road in Green Bay, where it will be 50 degrees, wet, and windy. Great call. (Look, I get that Oliver’s starting Aiyuk and Kittle, but you can’t be afraid of the juice siphon. If Purdy scores 30 and Kyler scores 20, you have ten fewer points, regardless of who’s stacking what. At least you tie it together. All matchups being equal, sure, you take the all-Cards variance and the chance the 49ers just run the ball. But it might be a little too much game theory and a little too detached from the physical game.)
Oliver starts Caleb Williams against another garbage defense. Caleb should be good for an easy 20, probably 30. Edge: Oliver
RB
Sean starts Saquon, Cook, and Conner, and their matchups are brutal. The last time the jewel of Sean’s team had bad matchups, he lost. So here we are.
Oliver starts the Robinsons and Mixon (who is practicing this week). Bijan gets the Panthers, so that’s 25 points. Brian gets the Ravens, which isn’t ideal for yardage, but I like his TD odds just the same. Mixon faces the Pats, who just allowed the Dolphins to run all over them, and the Texans need to spend this time getting the run game right. Edge: Oliver
WR
Ridley and Deebo for Sean, assuming Shaheed is too hurt to go. As much as I like the Rattler blowup potential, I said I wouldn’t bet on it. Deebo was kind of a decoy against Arizona and will probably break seven tackles against Seattle. Ridley is all Sean’s got, but it’s also a great matchup against a Colts’ defense that’s allowed 400 yards of offense in every game this year.
Assuming Mixon is in, Oliver has to pick two: Aiyuk, Olave, Sutton, Doubs, Allen, or Turpin. You probably just go Aiyuk and Olave because they’re the best players. I’d definitely start Olave because Rattler will chuck bombs, and there will be no Shaheed. Don’t be afraid of missing the Keenan Allen blowup. If you’re afraid he only has one good game in him, you should drop him. If you must dabble in curiosities, start Romeo Doubs. The team had no choice but to suspend him. I think they fucking love him and are going to shower him with targets. If you’re trying to hit ceiling and avoid disaster, start Aiyuk and Doubs. Edge: Sean
TE
McBride and Kittle are two of like, three TEs you can start every week without thinking about it. Okay, four (Kelce and Bowers). No edge
K
Ka’imi and Koo, both AAPI gods, both good for 15. No edge.
DL
Boye Mafe is everybody’s favorite player to add mid-week and then have to drop when he’s ruled out.
Kyle Van Noy had three two-sack games in a row, but he’s 33 about to face a fast QB. Edge: Eagles pass-rushers
LB
The JOK breakout has commenced. Sean snuck Zack Baun back in following the Eagles’ bye.
Robert Spillane is the IDP add of the year so far. Quincy Williams is consistently hovering around 10 FP, especially with CJ Mosley missing time, but I’d want out of the whole Jets’ defensive situation following the firing of Robert Saleh. Edge: Sean
DB
Nick Cross no longer leads the league in tackles, and he doesn’t cross the line of scrimmage. If his tackle numbers stay down, his rate of getting his hands on the ball needs to stay up, otherwise he’s suddenly scoring single-digits every week.
Kei’Sean Nixon isn’t the KR scam Oliver hoped for, but he’s a blitzing slot-corner capable of huge weeks. You will have to ride the occasional down week against teams that don’t target their slot receiver. Arizona’s been pretty light on the Dortch lately. Might be a rough one. Edge: Sean
QB
Baker is on fire, but Love is playing in the shootout. You love Baker, you want to have fun, you hate the Saints, you start Baker. In that case, own the move and don’t panic when Love has more points. Keep Baking.
Josh Allen is ash. It’s good for Allen’s chances that Saleh was fired, but I’m not sure it matters. The Ravens gave the league the blueprint: put the game in Allen’s hands. If Shakir is out again, it’s another 20-point ceiling for Allen. The Jets’ secondary is better than the Bills’ receivers. Stuff the run. Force Allen to pass. Enjoy the turnovers. Run the ball. Get a division win and win the nation’s heart again. Edge: Spencer (it’s Josh Allen, people)
RB
Etienne against Chicago in London is a strong matchup on paper, but Etienne is hurt and the Jags don’t owe him anything. Could easily be a split or another Bigsby game. Spencer should start JK Dobbins coming off the bye. Any decent coach would see what Denver is doing in pass defense and force them to play the run. Harbaugh and Roman want to do that anyway. If you must start Etienne, bench one of the WRs.
D’Andre Swift against the Jags in London is about the strongest matchup you can get minus actually having a good RB. The Bears have a bye following the London game, so there’s no need to limit Swift. The Bears’ offense is very boring. They will give Swift 20 carries if the score is in their favor. Edge: Evan
WR
Four-wide vs. four-wide, a WR cornucopia.
Evan starts Godwin, Diggs, Harrison, and AJ Brown.
Spe starts Dell, GW, Odunze, and Legette.
I don’t think I have to elaborate. Edge: Evan
TE
Kmet vs.JAX in London with Oluokun still out and Devin Lloyd playing hurt. Yes, please.
Kincaid @NYJ on Monday night with Mosley back in the lineup. Nope. Edge: Evan
K
Chase McLaughlin in a dome. Edge: Evan
DL
Will Anderson finally does shit against a garbage Pats o-line
Evan Anderson is potentially not a real person. Edge: Evan
LB
David and Pratt vs. Roquan and Bernard is IDP excellence. No edge.
DB
Derwin vs. Whitehead, please. Edge: Spe
QB
Jayden Daniels might just be too hot to handle, even for an aggressive, smart Ravens defense.
Dak Prescott in a shootout might just match that production. No edge.
RB
Breece Hall kind of sucks without the breakway runs, but he should be due for a breakaway run. So… do what you will. You spent the waiver on Tracy, you might as well use him if Singeltary is out again. If Jonathan Taylor plays, you start him. This is a tricky position to be in because Brian has a strong WR room. Even starting just two RBs means sitting one of Diontae, Reed, or London, each of whom leads their teams in receiving.
Cameron is starting Pollard, Ekeler, and Bigsby. Barf. Edge: Brian
WR
Assuming Brian starts Hall and Taylor, that leaves three spots, probably occupied by DK, London, and Reed. DK’s been highly targeted but unimpressive aside from the occasional deep bomb. London is playing hurt but the Panthers suck. Reed is the best WR in a shootout spot. You’re benching Diontae because AJ Terrell can actually cover him.
Cameron starts Lamb and Wicks. If the Packers feed Doubs to build his confidence back up, it’s likely to Wicks’ detriment, but if it’s a shootout, it’s all good. No edge.
TE
Tucker Kraft vs. Engram/Otton. Don’t care.
K
Aubrey over everyone. Edge: Cameron
DL
Brian Burns vs. Maxx Crosby. No edge.
LB
Al-Shaair and Warner play the same exact role but Warner plays it better. Edge: Cameron
DB
Branch over Bates. Edge: Brian
DX
EJ Speed vs. TBD. Edge: Brian
Even if Corey weren’t rolling over, this would be an easy win for Coleman. He gets Hurts back. Hurts gets his WRs back. Corey’s forced to start Goff and might not even set a full lineup. The one thing I would do if I were Coleman, just to stay sharp, is find a better starter than Alexander Mattison against the Steelers. Possibly try again with AD Mitchell now that Pittman is out (and maybe Downs, too)? Otherwise, I’m not glorifying this sham matchup. But I am excited about Coleman continuing to top the leaderboard.
As the top two scoring teams from last week, it’s only appropriate that we get the marquee this week. It’s probably the last time either of us will be in this spot.
QB
Kirko @CAR just feels too good to pass up, so you know it’s doomed.
Burrow @NYG, he’s just so hot, you can’t bet against him. Giants’ usually fierce pass rush will be without Thibodeaux. I’m just glad I have Higgins to siphon some of that sweet Joey juice. Edge: Shelby
RB
Chuba has been a monster against some shitty run Ds, and the Falcons have a shitty run D. I’m probably starting Javonte against a false-positive Chargers run D, but I’m going to have a hard time benching Nick Chubb if he’s active.
Rachaad White is doing enough to avoid being benched, by either Shelby or the Bucs, but he’s hanging on by a thread. Najee Harris, same story. At least with Harris, there’s no competition, which is why he’s contributing a few more points per game. Chase Brown is stealing the Bengals’ job and becoming Shelby’s best RB in the process. No edge.
WR
Evans, Thomas, and Higgins vs. Chase and DJ Moore. It’s pretty even. Evans has like a 30% chance of getting thrown out of the game and Thomas has the worst matchup possible, but either of them can get open against anyone. Higgins should out-target Chase again just because that’s what the defense will give them. Shelby will never start Pickens over Moore again. With another easy matchup, Moore will be back in the elite-WR conversation. No edge.
K
I’m going back to London with another rookie, this one known for being the youngest kicker ever drafted. Shelby’s yet to pick a kicker, but I’m guessing it will be Jake Elliott since he’s at the top of the free agent pile and that’s how Shelby makes those decisions. Edge: Doak
DL
Vita Vea doesn’t usually score a lot of fantasy points, but he’s on a sack streak, and the Saints have nothing going on on the interior of their line.
Nick Bosa faces the turnstile at Seahawks’ RT. Edge: Shelby
LB
Eric Kendricks is having a renaissance, but he might be hurt.
Dorian Williams is averaging double-digit tackles and fantasy points. No edge.
DB
Budda vs. Winfield is the DB matchup we all need because it’s the only one we have any context for. Seriously, who among us understands how to pick a DB if he’s not one of the league’s best players. I’m lost. No edge.
DX
Weapon-X Wilson over Alontae Taylor. Edge: Doak
Good luck, everyone.
