What a strange experience. We were dominating that game, and then it got tight, and then we had the ball and the lead with 1:40 left, and then we never had the ball or the lead again. Kirk Cousins owned us again. I don’t really care about the missed facemask penalty on the Bucky Irving fumble. We had a chance to put them away after that and we didn’t. The season is fine. More importantly, a team of all Bucs would have scored close to 200 fantasy points this week. That’s what it’s all about. Then again, Cousins, Mooney, and London combined for over 100, so I’d imagine you squeeze the roster full of Falcons and they beat us that way, too. Note to anyone looking to add Cousins: this was the game. This isn’t happening again. However, if we’re only comparing statue QBs, Cousins appears the most likely to drop 30 any given week. Not sure that means anything. Statue QBs are dying out. Starting statues right now: Cousins, Brissett, Dak, Rodgers, [Raiders QB], Goff, Carr, Stafford, and Flacco. So among that group of competitors, you’d prefer to have Cousins. (Really, you’d prefer Flacco, but I think the Colts will feel pressure to turn back to Richardson; maybe things would be different if they’d won either game without AR). Goff is a close second, but his ceiling is capped because of the run game. But if you’re counting on any of those QBs (Cameron), the rest of your team better be tight. Without a little bit of rushing floor, you’re at major risk of getting, like, 13 points from your QB one of those playoff weeks.
But anyway, the Bucs’ season is fine. The losses are annoying but understandable. They need to be able to run the ball when the other team knows they’re running the ball. They need to be able to push people around. OR they need to be able to hit wide open Mike Evans 10 yards past the entire defense when the defense sells out to stop the run.
First of all, all of these games were over before the Sunday night game even started. Cameron was the only losing team with better than an 8% chance of winning. (Coleman and Max actually raised their win% during the Sunday night game.) Even Cam’s 33% chance of winning would have required 90 points from five players. But hey, Shelby got 90 from just two players, so…
Let’s start there. Shelby was almost the first team to break 200 this year. She made some pretty unforgivable lineup decisions (benching the DJ Moore revenge game the most egregious), but when you have two 40-point players, you get a little leeway. She also made great IDP pickups, a combined 25 from Dorian Williams and Jamel Dean, who are each averaging double-digits this season. Terrible kicker pickup. I feel vindicated for taking to Wikipedia to break the tie between rookies Reichard and Karty for me. But so, Shelby gets the first win, does it in epic fashion, needing more points to win than any of the other eventual winners. She does with the three Bengals leading the way again, and now what? I think she was low-key looking forward to selling, which she still can. The Burrow-Chase explosion means you can trade the pair for the 1-2 picks you spent on them, reload for next year. Or just see how far they take you. Burrow seems convinced it’s up to him to throw six TDs to get his team a win, so that’s a great position to be in for fantasy. But if the goal is to sell high, the time is now. Honestly the time was yesterday. People have gotten two nights’ sleep since the explosion and are probably already over it.
Poor Max—well, not that poor; he did win 10 more dollars this week. He had the second-best player, an outrageous 43 FP there, he had a 20-point RB, a double-digit TE, and pretty solid play from everybody but his K and DB. For the fifth time, aka every time, he would have won a melee with this score. But that’s not how we play. We play the way where it’s possible for Brian and me to go on three-game heaters while trading Brian Burns back and forth. Max is 2-3 despite being second in scoring. And you expect scoring to regress. You don’t expect to just keep scoring and the wins regress. That’s not what happens. But if you have Lamar and you have the high-volume RBs, and you have start WRs who can flirt with double-digits despite terrible QB play… well, you just keep on trucking, I guess. Man, that sucks.
Cameron needed a massive game from Dak and CeeDee (and Aubrey), and the Steelers said fat fucking chance. It was just not a good week to face the winless teams in Mortydome. They were too hungry. The nature of this league is that parity reigns in the weekly contest. That, and Evan’s team is just too good to keep losing, especially if D’Andre Swift keeps playing like this. Even ceding two TDs to Roschon Johnson, Swift still coasted to 23 FP. Lavonte David had his first interception since the Bucs’ Super Bowl season, and Chase McLaughlin had his best fantasy game as a Buc. It was destined.
Cameron was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. He beat Sean, and now he’s yesterday’s news. This team is nothing without its teeny captain.
177 points beats my previous season-high (last week) by 44. Thanks to some serious luck in free agency and trades, I have a real team! I even left points on the bench. It’s important to note that I turned over most of my roster between the draft and now. The only players left from my draft are Evans, Shakir, BTJ, Braelon, and Chubb. I have an extra 3rd in next season’s draft, and I only had to give up next year’s 9th for Tee Higgins. I’m bracing for all of it to come crashing down, but I’m feeling an overwhelming sense of accomplishment having won three games already. I would love to say I’d be fine losing now, that I deserve it or whatever, but I feel like I’m in this thing, and I’m going to play like it.
Oh, Spencer. Garrett Wilson finally showed up, but nobody else did. Suddenly it’s starting to feel like the sun is going down on this season. Nabers went down, Dell’s not happening, Etienne is losing his job, Kincaid’s just some TE, and even the RBs you’ve got on the bench aren’t, like, gamebreakers who are going to give you the 20s you need to compete every week. Smart teams are forcing Josh Allen to carry the team, and without a legit #1 WR, he just can’t do it. There’s no threat, no gravity pulling the defense away, no easy buttons to hit in Stefon Diggs’ wake. To be clear, I don’t think the sun is going down on Spencer’s season. I do think that the picture of him as a superteam is fading like the McFly family photo album.
Brian got the boom from his back-end, three 20s from his offense, and no duds. That’s usually a guaranteed win. Coleman would have needed to get a little more creative with his lineup to overcome that kind of production.
Starting Darnold, Jefferson, and Addison was always a high-variance move, and against the Jets’ defense, you were bound to see the low end. But I think you had to do it. I mean, I spent all week fighting myself from starting Joe Flacco, so it literally never could have been me starting any triumvirate against the Jets, but in theory, it’s important to experiment with this kind of decision so you don’t make this mistake in the playoffs. I think it’s time to replace TJ Edwards. I probably give him the Jags game just because his bye is the following week anyway, but his last four games are 7.5, 1.5, 8, and 5. Chicago seems to have made some adjustment that’s squeezing Edwards out of that tackle-funnel position. All I’m saying really is you don’t have to hold him through the bye week if you’re worried about someone taking him. He’s replaceable.
Brian is now on a redemption tour. Be warned. The only question is: when you reach the playoffs, do you continue renaming your team every week based on your opponent? Or do you find yourself along the way and let the name spawn from that? I just feel instinctively that you can only win it all if you’re true to your identity. What’s going to be this team’s identity? Jayden 2 Jayden? Maybe we’ll find out in the Week 14 melee.
Oliver had a nice week, a get-right game against a barely-there opponent. Corey chose to keep Zeke on his team rather than add a DL for this matchup. And it wasn’t a hopeless week! Corey had a bunch of solid performances and was squarely in this thing. But credit to Oliver for sticking with Caleb against the league’s worst defense, for sticking with Aiyuk against the league’s second-worst defense, for going back to Koo, for sitting tight instead of making a desperate trade. Good shit.
Depriving Sean of a win for a week didn’t weaken him; it just made him hungry. He got prettyyy lucky he wasn’t facing four other teams, mostly because he doesn’t have to sweat getting his QB decision wrong. Again. And he doesn’t have to sweat still not having a real plan at WR. It was a strong win, enough to have won a melee and then some. Enough that we all know who owns this league, who took a beating and kept on eating, who our collective daddy is, who’s going to easily run the table and win his third straight championship without any real traction along the way. Good season, Sean. Rest on your laurels, Pharoah. You built this pyramid by god’s will. Have a bunch of grapes. Don’t worry about making trades of grinding the waiver wire. You’ve got the squad all set.
Kennedy, it’s probably best just to forget.
Waivers are tragic this week. Don’t do it. See for yourself:
1. Kirk Cousins (@CAR)
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster
3. Tyrone Tracy
4. Tank Bigsby
5. Jalen Tolbert
6. DeAndre Hopkins
7. Frankie Luvu
8. Tyrel Dodson
9. Travon Walker
10. Jameis Winston
11. Danny Dimes
I will probably cash my claim on Cousins just because of the matchup. I don’t care if telling you this ruins my chance of getting him. I don’t actually want him. I just like his chance of hitting 30 compared to my current QBs. And if something insane happened and I needed him going forward, he has solid matchups from now through Week 9, and he has a solid playoff schedule. Again, I don’t mind telling you this because I’d really rather not have Kirk Cousins on my team. Cameron, please, enjoy Kirk Cousins.
