Some surprising stats through four weeks:
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards (and completions, and attempts…)
Sam Darnold leads passing TDs.
Jayden Daniels leads completion percentage (by a lot).
Derrick Henry leads rushing yards and TDs (and if that’s not surprising, why didn’t you draft him sooner?)
Alvin Kamara leads scrimmage yards and total TDs (tied with Kyren).
Top three RBs in yards per attempt: Chase Brown, JK Dobbins, Tyler Allgeier.
Malik Nabers leads the league in targets and catches.
Nico Collins has 120 yards per game, 25 more than the next receiver.
The only three WRs over 90 ypg are Nabers, DK, and Jauan Jennings.
Dallas Goedert is the #1 TE in fantasy despite scoring zero TDs.
The most TDs scored by a TE: 2 (Kittle and Taysom)
For Oliver: Joe Flacco has more passing TDs than Bo Nix.
The Chargers have allowed the fewest points of any defense.
The Broncos allow the fewest yards per play. Vance Joseph has dethroned Brian Flores (who dethroned Todd Bowles) as the league’s most aggressive blitzer, sending an extra defender on 44% of plays. The Vikings still lead all pressure categories in raw stats, but the Vikings also lead the league in number of passing plays against because they keep blowing everybody out.
If Coleman had drafted Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, he would have two of the top three overall scorers in fantasy, averaging 57 points per week from just those two.
Max has Lamar and Kamara, the top two overall scorers, but he also has two straight losses.
Top 5 QBs are Lamar, Daniels, Allen, Darnold, and Baker
Top 5 RBs are Kamara, Henry, Saquon, Mason, and Taylor
Top 5 WRs are Nico, Nabers, Jayden Reed, Jefferson, and Godwin
Top 5 TEs are all under 10 points per game, putting them outside the top 65 flex players, but it’s Goedert, Bowers, Kittle, Likely, and Kmet.
Top 5 Ks are Aubrey, Boswell, Moody, Ka’imi, and Grupe
Top 5 DLs are Hutch, Van Noy, Van Ginkel, Pat Jones (?), and Keion White
Top 5 LBs are Warner, Spillane, Pratt, Troy Andersen, and Zack Baun
Top 5 DBs are two Saints, Brian Branch, L’Jarius Snead’s replacement, and the Colts’ DB who leads all players in tackles.
Coleman leads the league in scoring (remember when we roasted his draft?).
Evan has had more points scored on him than Coleman has scored. Coleman has scored 680. Evan has had 696 scored on him. Evan has lost to the league’s top scorer in two straight weeks, he faced the third best scorer in Week 2, and he faced the fourth best scorer (Coleman) in the melee. Amazing. Shelby and I have had it rough, being the only other teams to “allow” over 600 FP, but at least we’ve had a chance. Obviously I’ve had two chances. Most of my points allowed were the 198 Cameron hammered me with in Week 2. This is a good stat for Evan. It’s bound to regress.
Shelby, Corey, and I are the only teams yet to cross the 500-point mark, meaning we are not even scoring 125 points per game. Shelby is under 110, Corey is under 120, and I’m at 122. Shelby has the highest single-week score among us, at 141, in a week where Corey and I won and she lost. Cool, fun, fair, logical game.
Cameron has only “allowed” 480 FP, specifically 124, 113, 120, and 121, and he lost one of those games.
Let’s look at our point-differentials just for kicks:
Kennedy +145
Coleman +133
Cameron +115
Max +104
Sean +80
Spe -4
Brian -8
Oliver -15
Corey -84
Doak -125
Evan -162
Shelby -179
Those are the tiers of this league right now. Spencer, Oliver, and Brian should be reacting as if they’ve just heard the Joker say “tryouts.”
Let’s look at the week ahea—hey, wait, no, you fuckers aren’t getting off that easy. What the fuck is up with no one putting in a waiver claim for Dontayvion Wicks? Do you not understand he’s now starting in one of the league’s most potent offenses? He had 13 targets on Sunday! Stuff like this doesn’t just come around every week, especially not a quarter of the way through the season. You assholes needed to pounce on that, and instead, you just let Cameron get stronger. Just because Cameron killed the king doesn’t mean we want him to be king now. But fine, as reward for winning four matchup against Sean, we award you this year’s Puka Nacua. That’s fine. NOW let’s look at the week ahead.
IR Factory over Hugh Jackman
Oliver is the only 1-3 team, but if Caleb Williams can’t capitalize against the worst defense in the league (Carolina), Oliver is going to start thinking about it. He’s going to at least want to shake things up with a trade. But I think it’ll be another week. I don’t think Corey is fielding a serious team, and the scam is over at two lucky wins in a row. Which is good for Oliver because this is a terrible week for him to need a win based on his players’ matchups. Bijan will be held in check by the Bucs (on a Thursday no less), Brian Robinson has a knee injury and faces Cleveland in the rain. Kyle Shanahan is doing this twisted Saw game with Brandon Aiyuk where he plays him but gives him the worst assignment on every play. Courtland Sutton caught Bo Nix’s first TD of the season last week, so it’ll be another four weeks until the next one (jk, Sutton has a good matchup and is by far Nix’s number one target). Chris Olave faces Trent McDuffie. George Kittle is the only thing Oliver has going other than the big thing he has going for him, which is Corey’s lineup.
Mahomes is nothing special in fantasy, especially not against the Saints DBs. Devin Singletary hurt his groin as part of a slow process of turning into a pumpkin by the end of the month. He faces a Seahawks team who will look to prove they aren’t dog shit against the run after getting embarrassed by the Lions, plus they’ll have three or four defensive starters back from injury. Michael Pittman is good if Joe Flacco is in, but he’s still worse than Josh Downs. Terry McLaurin is breaking out, but the Browns are aware of this and will bracket him because there is no other game in town besides the run. Brock Bowers will lead Corey’s team in points. JSN is good for exactly ten. If Corey starts Zeke, you feel great about your chances. He should start Bucky Irving, he should want to start Bucky Irving just because. But here we are.
Oliver should score 30+ IDP points. Corey needs to replace his two best starters, and if he’s starting Zeke at RB, I can only imagine. But if he just adds the two highest projected IDPs, that’s Witherspoon and Queen, which I don’t hate at all.
So as much as it should be a walk in the park for Oliver, it will inevitably come down to kicker, which means we’ll have to wait until Monday night to see whether Harrison Butker comes through for Corey.
But yeah, whoever loses this game, you hit send on that trade offer as soon as the game is out of reach. Don’t wait. If it’s Corey, he’ll likely only make one trade, just the best offer to cross his desk. But if it’s Oliver, he’s probably going to fire sale to recoup the future pick he already solid. But you want to be in the inbox in the first wave because that’s the deck of cards he’ll use to plot out the series of moves. If you make an offer after he’s already made a trade, you’re probably just getting in the way.
Haven’t Learned over (⌐■_■)
It’s probably a waste of time to preview my matchup this far in advance when I’m constantly trying to make trades and eventually second-guessing most of my lineup decisions. I’m starting Mike Evans. That’s easy. He’s my guy, and he’s playing three days before everyone else. Otherwise I’m looking at:
Fields vs. Geno: Fields is at home against Dallas on Sunday Night Football, which means the league will have their hands all over this one. Dallas is allowed to lose this game, and the league stands to benefit greatly from a Justin Fields rebirth. Just think of what Justin Fields is capable of if his offensive line is allowed to hold this decimated Dallas line (no Parsons, no Lawrence). It’s almost like somebody should trade for him before this game so they can actually benefit from his 40-point game instead of having to bake it into the cost to acquire him. If nobody wants to make that offer, I’m fine starting him. Geno plays at home against the Giants, which would be more interesting if the Giants offense could actually get it into the endzone. Still, Seattle is the most pass-happy offense in the league, and the weakness of this Giants’ defense is its secondary.
Chuba vs. Javonte vs. Braelon: yeah, I can’t really argue for starting Javonte Williams or Braelon Allen, but I can’t ignore the facts. Chuba is facing a dominant Bears’ defense, but that dominance is mostly against the pass. If not for Joe Mixon’s injury in Week 2, Chicago would have allowed over 100 yards rushing to every team they faced this season. Carolina has a strong running game. However, Javonte faces a Raiders defense that kicked off the Chuba Hubbard breakout campaign. Braelon Allen’s case is that he looks better than Breece as a rusher, and the Jets should be playing ball-control and letting their defense win games. That means that Breece and Braelon can each get 15-20 touches. The problem is that Aaron Rodgers wants to prove he’s still got it. He doesn’t just want to win games. He wants to be better than the defense. He sucks. Can him. Let Braelon and Breece run the wildcat. Anyway, I’m starting Chuba and maybe Javonte and benching Braelon mostly because I’ve been burned too many times starting players in London games.
Thomas, Shakir, Lockett, Downs: this has been the source of my misery this season. I’ve seen one of my bench players outscore at least three of my starters each week. I’m done getting cute with Thomas and Shakir. They’re starting. But Shakir hurt his ankle. And I’m playing against Josh Allen. So there’s some calculus to be done there, and I was using a calculator to do 3-digit subtraction for the point-differentials. I don’t want to think about it. I just want to start the guys that aren’t injured.
Mark Andrews vs. Sam LaPorta: one of them is on bye, but will you be able to tell just by how many points they score? Mark Andrews begs the question. He’s coming off back-to-back zeroes. Even for TE, that’s rarified air. So obviously I’m starting him, but now that I have LaPorta (which I still don’t understand), Andrews actually has to play well to stay in the lineup, maybe even on the team. I’m not a Ravens fan anymore. I’m just a Lamar fan and a Tucker stan. Andrews can lose my confidence real quick with another dud this week.
I could start any kicker, but for some reason I landed on Vikings’ rookie Will Reichard because he holds the FBS record for points scored in a collegiate career, and he’s kicking in a soccer stadium on Sunday. That’s how I make my kicking decisions. I know what I said about London games, but I also know that if you’re not constantly contradicting yourself, you’re only living your life halfway.
And I’m not tinkering with my IDPs. The one spot I might have tinkered with was DX, but nobody paid attention to Eric Kendricks, so the IDPs are set.
Spencer, on the other hand, doesn’t have any decisions to make. They have a couple bye weeks, and their bench kinda sucks. The one decision you might spend some time on is that second flex spot, but you added the Chiefs’ starting RB. You probably just start the Chiefs’ starting RB. He’s the only one expected to produce. With every other option, you’re hoping for a score above your realistic expectation. So keep it simple.
Okay, one other choice is how to fill in for Derwin again, but you have the empty roster spot, and DB is the hardest position to stream. I think it’s more important to dodge landmines than to chase upside, so I would just pick up the best safety, which I believe is Minkah Fitzpatrick. Or you just add the guy with the most points, which is how you landed Da’Ron Bland last year. That would be Chiefs’ slot-corner Chamarri Conner aka the guy who replaced L’Jarius Snead. The Chiefs’ slot-corner role has been dominating fantasy for years. Snead for a couple years, McDuffie last year, and now Conner.
God(I-Need-A)win over teeny w/o tony
I’m calling Evan’s shot this week. Cameron’s white knight is on bye, his matchups suck, and his team isn’t good anyway.
Dak @PIT in the rain, L
Achane @NE, no Tua, L
Lamb, fine. I’m done fighting.
Worthy default WR1, L
Otton when he’s in a lineup, L
Iosivas w/ Higgins back, L
Wicks waiver darling, L
Aubrey misses kicks now, L
Crosby misses games now, L
Fred Warner not practicing, L
Bates vs. Baker, L
Bolton vs. Nawlins, fine.
Evan only needs like 105 points to win, and he’s starting:
Love @LAR shook the rust off, W
Swift vs. league’s worst D, W
Godwin, duh(ble-u)
Diggs revenge game vs. BUF, W
Njoku vs. Bobby Wagner’s old ass, W
Harrison 3-game TD streak, W
Zack Moss vs. BAL, L
(drop Ty Chandler, start Tutu)
McLaughlin in a dome, W
Will Anderson is smaller than Josh Allen, L
Lavonte vs. ATL, W
Whitehead vs. ATL, meh
(same advice I gave Spe about DB)
Pratt racks up tackles vs. BAL, W
Evan has the advantage anyway, but it’s a don’t-call-it-a-comeback, announce your presence with authority WIN if he juices it up just a little bit more (and to be clear, I don’t think you have to do anything with Will Anderson just because of a bad matchup; the long-term outlook is good).
Blitz & Chitz over killers
Shelby gave it all she had last week, which is to say there’s nothing left for this week. The Bengals that scored literally half their points are going up against the league’s top rush defense. The Ravens’ pass defense doesn’t look good statistically, but most of that is a product of taking their foot off the gas against Dallas. They allowed 280 to Mahomes on opening night, 230 to Minshew in a weird fucking game, and just 155 to Josh Allen last week. BUT it’s a division game. All bets are off. Well, not all bets. It’s very likely based on recent matchups that the Bengals top out at 24 points in this game, meaning you need Burrow involved in all three TDs, and ideally those TDs go to Chase or Brown. It’s not a great spot to be in, but it’s the best you can do without seriously shaking it up via trade.
Max left points on the bench again (not enough to win), and his IDPs drastically underachieved. He scored 166 without his top draft pick and with garbage IDP play. He’s got Lamar, and he’s got his bell-cow RB Cerberus. (Yeah, Josh Jacobs is quality, and his matchup is better than Jones or Kamara’s, but the one game Jacobs got bell-cow usage, he got hurt). Max’s weakness is WR. The Browns and Dolphins have hopeless passing games right now, but I’d be afraid to bench either team’s top WR for Christian Kirk. You just have to ride it out and hope Jameis and Tua are starting soon. Isaiah Likely and Kyle Pitts are essentially the same player, except Likely can actually play TE.
Shelby has George Pickens in a good spot against Dallas. Trevon Diggs was hurt last week, but as of my writing of this, we don’t know his practice status. My guess is he’ll play and they’ll each win a couple reps, but the Steelers shouldn’t have to throw unless Dallas stacks the box, in which case, the Steelers are going to shred them with TE leaks. DJ Moore revenge game is going to go absolutely nuts. Najee Harris and Aaron Shampklin are the Steelers’ only healthy RBs, so we’re going to see 25 carries from Najee and a handful from gadget-guy Calvin Austin.
On paper, Max has a sick group of IDPs, and Shelby has a couple studs. There’s competition here. If you can win or hold in the IDP game, then you just need a couple things to go your way on offense. If Lamar turns it over a couple times and Burrow capitalizes with TDs, this matchup could swing in Shelby’s favor. If Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara are bottled up by two of the league’s best defenses, well, Max might burn down a small building just to feel some warmth.
Fart over Fart69
I really want to pick the upset, but I just don’t see it this week. Brian needs Jayden Daniels to go off every week, and a matchup against Cleveland (who are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders sans Davante Adams) just isn’t the spot for that. Jonathan Taylor is probably out, Breece Hall has a brutal matchup (and sucks now?), and Brian’s WRs are in toooough spots except for DK. It’s just one of those weeks. You have a bunch of good players, but they either don’t play or don’t play well. Coleman’s got some tough spots of his own, namely starting Darnold, Jefferson, and Addison against the Jets in a London game, but otherwise it’s pretty smooth. Kelce is going to be the focal point of the Chiefs’ offense again. Henry and Kyren have soft matchups. The Kenergy can’t be contained. TJ Watt is playing at home on Sunday night. I don’t think it’s a 180-point week for Coleman or anything, but I think it’s like a 120-point week for Brian. If Darnold can throw a TD each to Jefferson and Addison, I think the rest of Coleman’s team puts him over the top. Brian needs to get his lineup exactly right, and if it were me, that lineup would be:
QB Fields (via trade)
RB Sermon, Ford, Breece
WR DK, Reed
TE Muth
Brian has to drop Tucker Kraft to add a DL, but he should wait until Sunday so that no one else can add Kraft before kickoff. I think he’s hoping Taylor will play so he can drop Sermon, but I don’t think that’s happening.
Meeseeks over Season 3
Everyone knows Season 3 is the worst. Just look at recent successes like Abbott Elementary and The Bear. God, Ted Lasso?! Season 3 of Community went so far off the rails that Dan Harmon got fired. But you know what’s worse than a Season 3, a Season 4, and Kennedy, if you care about us, you’ll do your part, use your cameo appearance to tank this episode’s reviews, and hand off to the next team.
Ugh, I really need to look at the matchups before I start writing. With all of Kennedy’s Lions on bye, I’m not sure he can swing it. He’s starting Allen Lazard. Ok, let’s arbitrage as best we can.
The rumor in New England this week is that the Pats are “considering benching Rhamondre for Gibson.” The way I read this is that Rhamondre gets one more crack at the workhorse RB shit because they’re playing against a Miami offense could barely move the ball last week. The game should stay close enough that Rhamondre can get his 20 carries for 100 yards and a score. Gibson should mix in on passing downs and probably give you more than Doubs or Lazard. Yes, I’m saying start both Pats RBs. Pretend they’re wearing Honolulu Blue if that gets you there. Then you at least consider Justice Hill and Alec Pierce versus whoever you didn’t bench yet between Doubs and Lazard. Here’s a quick peek at all four:
Doubs had his highest target total of the season in Week 4, but Jordan Love threw the ball 54 times as the Packers tried to erase a 28-point deficit. Doubs was tied for fourth in team targets and alone in fourth in team receiving yards. He has yet to eclipse 10 FP in a game this year, and there’s no reason for that to change against a pretty hopeless Rams’ defense. The Packers should run a lot more and be able to get whatever they want from the three options ahead of Doubs.
Lazard is kind of a joke, but Aaron Rodgers isn’t in on it. He likes the mind-meld. He doesn’t care about how the plays are drawn up. He just cares whether you’re where you’re supposed to be based on what he sees. So far, Lazard is the best among Jets’ receivers at doing that.
Justice Hill has a role in one of the league’s best offenses, enough of a role that he gets as many looks as Doubs or Lazard, He’s outscored Doubs three of four weeks, and his ceiling is double Doubs’ so far.
Alec Pierce thrives on bombs, and the Jags’ defense is pretty fucking terrible. If the goal is to score the most points, you might just play the guy with the best chance to score a 50-yard TD.
What does this mean? I think I would start Lazard and Pierce for the TD upside. But I would understand following the high point-total for the Packers game and betting on a positive-regression game from Doubs. He should score a few TDs at some point. So fuck it, maybe Kennedy already has the right lineup and Gibson should stay on the bench.
Sean is finally starting the Purdy-Deebo stack, and it’s in a top-5 matchup. Kennedy doesn’t have his Lions, but Sean doesn’t have Barkley (or Ridley, but what was that worth anyway). Sean is really scamming this thing up with Shaheed and Whittington in the lineup, but it’s all he’s got. Shaheed on the road at KC is a potential zero. Whittington is probably going to make up for that with a 20. McBride is back but probably ineffective along with everyone but Marvin Harrison for the Cardinals. So that means no love for Conner either. James Cook, the secret is out. Teams are going to force Josh Allen to prove it with his arm.
This IDP matchup is straight fire:
Nick Cross leads all players in tackles. Adebo leads all DBs in points. JOK averages 10 a game, and Van Ginkel clogs the stat sheet.
Myles Garrett notched two sacks last week, one for each broken foot he’s playing on. Bobby Time has delivered to the tune of 20 points per week. And Xavier McKinney comes into this game riding a four-game INT streak.
I don’t care about kickers, but Moody and Ka’imi each already have a 20-point game this season. Let’s hope some divisional hijinks leads to more points for Moody and less for the Purdy-Deebo stack. (Good on Kennedy for starting Jauan to siphon some of that Purdy juice, too.)
You just know like eight of the dudes I mentioned as being important are going to end up being inactive, but otherwise I probably nailed it.
