QB
Stroud had the worst game of his life last week. Now he faces a Jags defense that straight-up has no secondary. 30 FP for sure.
Baker faces a Fangio defense that’s going to get pressure, and the only holes are over the middle where Baker can’t see them (because the linemen are too tall). Edge: Kennedy
RB
Gibbs and Montgomery face a Seahawks defense that is absolutely ready to shut down the run. The Lions’ run game is usually un-shutdown-able, but it looks like superstar center Frank Ragnow is going to miss time with a partially torn pec. Best case: Ragnow misses time now. Worst case: he plays, fully tears it, and the Lions’ backup comes in cold to get wrecked by the Seahawks dominant interior. Then you have Rhamondre, who’s fumbled once in each game this year and apparently doesn’t play when the team is losing in the second half. However, the 49ers haven’t played the run well, and now Javon Hargrave is out (not that he’s a run-stuffer but it hurts regardless). If the Patriots commit to running the ball, Rhamondre is fine. But will they? They did it in Weeks 1 and 2, but they got cute last week and got annihilated. So Rhamondre is probably your best flex unless you think the Pats will send him a message about the fumbles and give Gibson a heavier workload. Or you could real cute and start your Kansas City Trash Asshole. Of the RBs on KC’s roster, he knows the offense best and might even be the fastest. KC also just does stuff like this—piss people off, that is. The Chiefs play the Chargers, who are hoping Justin Herbert plays on a sprained ankle so they don’t have to start Taylor Heinicke. Great opportunity for the Chiefs to experiment with the run game up by 20 at halftime. (Update: Kennedy dropped STA-KC and added Jauan Jennings and Allen Lazard as his other flex options, so he probably rolls Rhamondre out there one more time.)
Zach Charbonnet is playing this well enough that Seattle doesn’t need to rush Ken Walker back. Charbs should be good for another 20 FP this week. Evan will probably flex Zack Moss in a game where the Bengals blowout the Panthers. Edge: Evan
WR
Nico and the Sun God are the leading target-earners on great offenses, and they have great matchups.
Godwin, Harrison, and Diggs are superstars with money-green matchups. No edge.
TE
Zach Ertz is the #12 TE. He has twice as many points as Mark Andrews.
Joe Burrow likes throwing to Mike Gesicki. Edge: Evan
K
Whatever.
DL
Will Anderson faces a Jags defense that couldn’t protect Lawrence even before they lost a starting tackle.
Myles Garrett is playing on two injured feet. Edge: Evan
LB
Bobby Time is solid but beatable.
Lavonte David will finally hit double-digits this week. Germaine Pratt is fourth in tackles and second in forced fumbles. Edge: Evan
DB
Xavier McKinney has an interception in three straight games. So you ride that.
Jordan Whitehead had a weak score last week, but he had a respectable six tackles, and he should have more against a run-heavy Eagles attack (should Evan choose to keep him). No edge.
If CJ Stroud can’t make up for the deficit in Kennedy’s run game, Evan will notch his first win (cue three-game win-streak).
This was going to be Game of the Week before Max blew an easy chance at a 3-0 start. As it stands, Max’s team is losing steam while Coleman’s team steamrolls the league.
QB
Jalen Hurts heads to Tampa, where he historically sucks ass. The Eagles will lean on Barkley to win games until the WRs get healthy. Coleman should start Sam Darnold this week.
Lamar is Lamar. Edge: Max
RB
Derrick Henry in a Sunday night game against a team without linebackers rocket ship emoji. Kyren Williams is the only game left in town for the Rams and they led the league in 2-TE packages last week. A repeat of last week’s usage incoming. Bonus here for Coleman if Henry can get in the endzone because that means he’s siphoning points straight from Lamar.
Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, and Jordan Mason are all bell-cows whose matchups fucking suck. Max needs to squeeze the Aaron Jones revenge game into his lineup, probably over Jacobs, who is playing hurt and not well. Edge: Coleman
WR
Justin Jefferson and Rashee Rice would be the scariest WR duo in a normal league, but scroll up and remember what we’re seeing from Kennedy and Evan, too. Remains to be seen whether Coleman will start Zay Flowers or Keon Coleman, whose teams play each other and present terrible matchups. Probably gotta hit the waiver wire for this one or lean Flowers to try to neutralize Lamar even further.
Max is benching Some Trash Asshole, but I would argue you already missed the right game to do it. Tennessee’s defense is pretty shitty, whereas Seattle’s is ascending straight to the moon. This week, Jameson Williams plays Seattle. The Ragnow injury should lessen Goff’s time to throw, reducing the chance a deep route opens up before Goff gets sacked or checks down. Stick with your first-round pick one more week. I know losing to Sean will tilt you. Don’t tilt. Stay the course. I agree that Amari Cooper belongs back in the lineup against the Raiders. Edge: Coleman
TE
Sam LaPorta vs. Travis Kelce TE matchup of the y—wait, I’ve just been handed today’s newspaper and it’s not 2023 anymore. These dudes suck. Lucky for Max he drafted Goedert and held for no apparent reason. With the top two Eagles’ receivers out, Goedert had 170 yards, and the Eagles have no choice but to keep feeding him. Kelce’s time is coming, and a matchup versus the Chargers sans Derwin might just make that time now. No edge.
K
Justin Tucker keeps missing kicks, and it’s breaking me. Still, we stan. Edge: Coleman
DL
Jaelan Phillips goes against a garbage Tennessee line.
TJ Watt is TJ Watt. Edge: Coleman
LB
Zaire Franklin and TJ Edwards are the same player in the same style defense. No edge.
DB
Julian Love plays the Kyle Hamilton role, but he’s not Kyle Hamilton. Edge: Coleman
DX
Alex Singleton tore his ACL in the first quarter against the Bucs and went on the play 100% of snaps, if you want an idea how just how bad the Bucs were last week. Sucks for Max. Singleton was racking up tackles. It very much matters who Max gets to replace him. Montez Sweat vs. the Rams is a decent try.
Danielle Hunter has multi-sack potential every week. Edge: Coleman
In terms of ceiling, Max stacks up nicely against Coleman. In terms of floor, we saw it last week. I’m picking the more consistent team, but I’m not counting Max out at all.
Not sure what the significance of the word “Masta” is here, but if you want to take down Ghostface, you need Sydney Prescott. Learn your lore or be doomed.
QB
Joe Burrow (I’m begging you) is 0-3 and faces the worst defense in the league. It is about to rain fire in Charlotte.
Jayden Daniels is that dude, but the Cardinals’ defense, despite a lack of outstanding talent, plays on a string against the run and will keep the lid on McLaurin. I think it’s Daniels’ worst game so far. Edge: Shelby
RB
Najee faces a truly terrible run D in Indy, and he projects to be the bell-cow with Warren out (cut to: 15 touches for Cordarrelle Patterson).
Breece Hall is losing significant snaps to Braelon Allen, and blowing out the Broncos will only make it worse. Jonathan Taylor is the truth, but nobody can run on the Steelers. Edge: Shelby
WR
Ja’Marr Chase, DJ Moore, George Pickens, and Jaylen Waddle are auto-starts. They haven’t posted great numbers consistently, but with players this good, you have to ride the wave.
Brian will win or lose this week based on what he does with his WRs and flex. The obvious candidates are DK, London, Diontae, Tee, and Jerome Ford. Don’t ignore Jerome Ford. He is the Browns’ starter, and the Raiders’ defense just allowed 30 FP to Chuba Hubbard. You have to start DK every week. You arguably have to start London, but you hate the Falcons. You won’t start Diontae because you think Andy Dalton and the Panthers are a joke, so it’s down to Higgins or Ford. Starting Higgins is risky because then you need Burrow to do well, but every time Burrow successfully throws to Higgins, you have a points advantage. Still, I’d go with three RBs. Keep in mind I am stupid. Edge: Shelby
TE
Kyle Pitts… I love him, but he doesn’t score fantasy points. He makes huge plays, he gets endzone targets. He was thiiis close to scoring two TDs Sunday night. But he didn’t score any. I don’t know what to make of him.
The Muth is good for five points, no more, no less. Edge: Shelby
K
Shelby can’t keep starting Jason Sanders. I swear to god I will use commissioner powers to drop him myself.
DL
Nick Bosa plays the Patriots. Huge game happening.
Brian will go back to the FSU well this week. Edge: Shelby
LB
Oluokun is hurt.
Azeez Al-Shaair is a dawg. Edge: Brian
DB
I know Winfield wants to play in the Eagles game. I think he’ll play even if he doesn’t practice.
Brian Branch is the top scoring DB in Mortydome. But, variance? Edge: Shelby
DX
Shelby has to replace two IDPs in free agency.
Brian probably drops Quay Walker this week.
If I remember, I will update this section before posting.
QB
Geno Smith on the road on Monday night is what fantasy football is all about.
Caleb Williams in LA would have been cool, but he’s at home against the Rams. This is the week he gets murdered (technically manslaughtered) on live TV. Oliver will probably chicken out and start Justin Fields, which is the right move. Edge: Doak
RB
Chuba Hubbard faces a relatively weak Cincinnati defense, but gamescript is doing the heavy lifting. Cincinnati has been losing for, like, every minute of the year so far. Again, they’re 0-3. Cincy’s rush defense is actually 11th best in yards allowed per rush attempt. So a bet on Chuba would be a bet on Carolina to keep pace and have the option to run the ball in all four quarters. I don’t believe that will happen, but Chuba had a nice game receiving last week, so maybe I just start him anyway. I’m hoping to snag Cam Akers after waivers (again, writing this before waivers). I also haven’t decided whether to start Braelon Allen. Also depends on what’s left in free agency as I try to climb up the waiver order.
The Robinsons have rough matchups this week, and neither of them dominates touches for their team. Carson Steele will probably have the best fantasy day among Oliver’s three backs, and as I mentioned in the last note, Oliver has to start three backs. Regardless, edge: Oliver
WR
Mike Evans, Brian Thomas, and Khalil Shakir is a fun group of athletes, but we all know it’s the worst receiving corps our league has to offer (well, third-worst while Sean and Cam struggle with injuries). The problem is that I can’t count on volume from any of them. I need efficiency, and efficiency comes and goes. I like Evans’ odds of scoring against the Eagles. I like Shakir to get 50-ish yards. I like Brian Thomas if he had, like, any other QB-coach combination. I hate Brian Thomas as a fantasy asset because his team refuses to treat him like Malik Nabers when this dude is arguably very similar to Malik Nabers. They insist on drawing up plays for Gabe Davis, and it doesn’t make any fucking sense. Tyler Lockett is not in this group of fun athletes, but he does stack nicely with Geno.
Chris Olave, Davante Adams, and Brandon Aiyuk are a good group of receivers, but they if they’re so good, why don’t they score good? Even so, I expect them to score good more often than my guys. Edge: Oliver (even though he has to bench one of them if he wants to win)
TE
Andrews and Parkinson is the weakest TE matchup since Andrews and Likely. No edge.
K
Matt Prater and Younghoe Koo are my favorite kickers who never actually have big fantasy games. Add it to the list of reasons I suck at fantasy football. No edge.
IDP
One thing you can count on is that Oliver and I will tinker with our IDPs to chase upside. He’ll stick with Quincy and Spillane, though. Spillane is a revelation. I’m not sure I’ll hold onto any of my current guys except Budda Baker, and even that’s only because I’m totally lost at DB this season. Logan Wilson is fourth in tackles, Ernie Jones has back-to-back double-digit games, Khalil Mack is chasing the Hall of Fame... maybe I stick with them one more week. But I see more upside elsewhere. I expect Oliver to dump Rousseau and Nixon.
For all that I’ll never learn, I have learned my lesson about picking against Sean.
QB
Kyler Murray has a good matchup on paper, but Washington’s defense is going to improve every week. Dan Quinn is doing his job. No McBride hurts, but Kyler has spread the ball around well. I predicted the Cards’ defense would hold Jayden Daniels to his worst game, and that’s also a bet against the whole ‘Ders offense. I don’t see Kyler needing to do much. I see Arizona getting back to pounding the rock.
Dak Prescott plays a division opponent on the road on Thursday night. However, as we saw Sunday afternoon, the league is trying desperately to get the Cowboys a win. I am guaranteeing that with all eyes on this game, Dallas will get a win, and I am guaranteeing it won’t be because of their running game. Edge: Cameron
RB
Barkley, Cook, and Conner are the most important players on Sean’s team. They mask his deficiencies elsewhere. Their matchups are pretty tough this week. Barkley faces the Bucs. Even without Vea, the Bucs’ run defense is good. They sell out to stop the run. I don’t think a pass game reliant on Dallas Goedert is going to make them change their tactics. Cook faces the Ravens, who will want to put the game in Josh Allen’s hands. Opposing defenses have made the mistake of being afraid of Josh Allen, of leaving light boxes for Cook to attack. The Ravens have a tendency to leave their DBs one-on-one against even the best receivers. By doing son, they can crowd the box and force Allen to throw. Of course Allen can throw for 400 yards any given week, BUT he’s also a good candidate to make the stupidest fucking turnovers you’ve ever seen. Winning the turnover battle is more important than winning the yardage battle. So Cook gets bottled up this week. Finally Conner faces the improving ‘Ders. I do believe the Cards will be in positive gamescript and commit to the run. I do believe Conner will get his 100 yards and a TD, but it’ll be on like 25 stubborn carries.
De’Von Achane and Tony Pollard are too smol and their offenses are too bad. They play against each other Monday night. It will be fun when Cameron needs like 40 points from the duo and they score maybe 20 combined. Edge: Sean
WR
Rashid Shaheed and Calvin Ridley are not serious options after combining for 1.9 points last week. They will score more points this week, but the ceilings aren’t what they were two weeks ago. I mean, with dudes who score in the specific ways these two score, the ceilings are consistently insanely high. All it takes is one broken play or one desperate heave. But in terms of reliable projection, we’re talking about like a 5% chance either of them score 20 and a 50% chance neither of them score five. Sean will almost definitely take shots in free agency to fix this.
CeeDee Lamb should draw bracket coverage every game. He’s that good and the rest of the WRs are that bad. Let Jake Ferguson and his 4.8 40 beat you. I foresee another low target total for Lamb where you need a contested catch and a broken tackle to score serious fantasy points. Adam Thielen is gone, Xavier Worthy is un-, and Brandin Cooks is only on the roster to bother me. QJ has been scoring TDs, but will Herbert play? If he doesn’t, are you willing to hitch your wagon to Taylor Heinicke against the Chiefs? And I thought my WR prospects were bad. Edge: three-RB lineups.
TE
Trey McBride is in concussion protocol, so it’s unlikely he plays. Cole Kmet is better anyway. Trade McBride while people think he’s the best TE not named Brock Bowers.
Dalton Schultz is bad. Edge: Sean
K
Aubrey over everybody. Aubrey over every TE and every RB or WR outside the top 20. Edge: Cameron
DL
Andrew Van Ginkel is scorching hot.
Maxx Crosby is playing hurt but so is every tackle for Cleveland. No edge.
LB
JOK is averaging 10 PPG, so you ride that. Zack Baun is averaging more than that, even if you remove his two sacks in Week 1.
Nick Bolton and Fred Warner are arguably the best LBs in the league (apologies to Lavonte, who has been put in a terrible position to succeed) Bolton faces the run-heavy Chargers, possibly sans Herbert, and Warner should get a lot of tackles against New England because New England should get over themselves and just run the piss out of the ball. However, I got burned by this logic just last week. Edge: Sean
DB
Nick Cross leads the league in tackles and faces Pittsburgh.
Jessie Bates has a decent tackle-floor and is as good a bet as anyone to get a pick. Edge: Sean
Corey’s team is galvanized by the mounting injuries, refusing to quit. Next man up mentality. You love to see it.
QB
Mahomes vs. Allen is a fun idea of an elite QB matchup, but Mahomes just isn’t that dude for fantasy. Mahomes has a nice matchup against the Chargers, but the matchup is probably even better for the Chiefs’ RBs. Allen has yet to prove he’s any good against a good defense so far this season. The Dolphins were the best so far, but they played scared and let James Cook beat them. The Ravens won’t. And the Ravens are at home. No edge.
RB
Singletary vs. Dobbins is funny. It’s just funny. They’re supposed to be bad, but they’re not. They’re supposed to be in committees, but they’re not. Both of their teams are likely to get blown out, but they’re the safety valves for their cowardly quarterbacks. This is just good football. No edge.
WR
I assume both of these teams will go four-wide. Corey could start Bucky Irving, but the Eagles present a pretty bad matchup. Bucky might just be that good. He might. But assuming they go four-wide:
Pittman, McLaurin, Mooney, and JSN vs. Nabers, GW, Dell, and Odunze. I know which side just absolutely crushes the upside battle, but you arguably have more guaranteed volume on the other side. Aside from Nabers, there’s not really a bonafide stud in this group of eight. Probably rank their fantasy prospects Nabers, McLaurin, Odunze, GW, Dell… okay, I don’t need to keep going. Edge: Spencer
TE
Brock Bowers might already be the best TE in fantasy.
Kincaid had his best yardage and his first TD on Monday, but the volume was trash. Edge: Corey
K
Nope.
DL
Parsons is going to be very hungry after trying to chase down Lamar all Sunday long. Now he gets to chase down and actually catch Daniel Jones, who I bet dudes just love to hit.
Josh Hines-Allen had 2.5 sacks the last time he faced the Texans. Still, edge: Corey
LB
Corey needs to change it up. Jordyn Brooks is not getting it done, and the Miami defense doesn’t have a great LB matchup.
Roquan Smith over everybody. Edge: Spencer
DB
Trevon Diggs vs. Malik Nabers is a solid spot for fantasy. Jones will have to challenge Diggs, and Diggs should get the better of Nabers a couple times.
Spencer needs to add a guy with Derwin out. Again, I am lost at DB and have no recommendations.
DX
Aidan Hutchinson is facing another backup RT, literally his fourth in a row. Expect another great game. Edge: Corey
Apologies if I don’t end up circling back to edit this before posting on Thursday. I’m probably too busy WINNING
