This is the one where we start to give Oliver credit for an aggressive post-draft trade. Mixon probably won’t play, but the Vikings matchup was probably a trap anyway. Coleman is forced to start Kyren in a game where the Rams will probably be shutout by the 49ers, and Oliver has the two best 49ers’ receivers (issue: Jordan Mason has more carries than Brock Purdy has completions, and this game shouldn’t require that to change). Meanwhile, Chris Olave plays for the league’s best offense. This is the first week Oliver is going to start Caleb Williams, facing a Colts’ defense already down three starters. Coleman is relying a lot on the Ravens to be good, and right now, the Ravens are not good. If the Ravens can’t be good, and Justin Jefferson can’t catch a 97-yard pass, then it’s up to Jalen Hurts to be Superman against the Saints. We should get legitimate feedback this week on how good the Saints are. The Eagles’ defense is not great, but they have way more juice than the Panthers and Cowboys. The Eagles’ offense is very good, so if the Saints go a third straight game without allowing 100 rushing or 300 passing, then we can start treating the Saints like a top-10 team. Oliver didn’t want Davante Adams, at least not as much as he wanted DK Metcalf, but now the Raiders are one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. And whatever he thought of Brian Robinson, certainly viewing him as a bench guy after the draft, the Commanders are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. So it’s all kind of working out. Well, not all. I’m kind of glossing over Oliver’s reason for starting Caleb despite Caleb not really giving us the goods yet: it’s a result of Justin Herbert sort of sucking and then getting banged up last week. The Herbert situation is gross enough that Oliver added Sam Darnold, which, hey, Darnold’s been pretty good, but if you’re holding three QBs and Darnold might be the best of them, then it’s not all, as I previously stated, working out. I’m not even going to touch Oliver’s IDPs. I give Oliver IDP advice all the time, and I’m wrong a solid 75% of the time. Coleman’s IDPs are glorious. Kyle Hamilton has yet to exceed 5.5 FP, but the 20-pointer is coming. And the rest of them have already at least flirted with 20. I expected Coleman to average 150 per game this year, and so far, he’s averaging 167. Still, the vibes are telling me this is a week that brings Coleman’s average down, and it’s a boom week for Oliver. (Note: don’t feed the vibes)
This is the matchup of the week, literally the top two teams through three weeks, one of them the reigning (and I do mean reigning) champ, Kyler vs. Lamar, Cerberus-RBs on both sides, and disgusting-ass but probably high-scoring IDPs.
Max simply has the better matchups. Lamar faces the shitty Cowboys, Jacobs is coming off 32 carries and will probably get 30 more against Tennessee, STA-MIA is matchup-proof, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta go up against a defense that won’t be able to put pressure on Jared Goff, Kamara is this year’s CMC, and Jordan Mason faces a Rams’ team that will finish dead last in time-of-possession this week.
Sean is going to be so mad when Kyler Murray is his third-best QB this week. I am so looking forward to every week where Sean lives or dies with the Arizona Cardinals’ offense. Granted, the Cardinals need to score a ton of points to win, and they know that, and they’re still going to have a handful of games where it all goes wrong, and if four of those can come in the regular season, and two of us can—okay, not technically “us” since I realistically can’t—finish ahead of Sean in the regular season, I just think there’s no way the Cardinals can be hot for three straight weeks at that time of year, and to make it extra juicy, to really motivate us to try to keep Sean in third place or worse, that first week of the playoffs, the Cardinals play the Patriots, and even when the Patriots sucked, they knew how to put Kyler Murray in a cage. Sure, Sean can pivot to Purdy, who will be elite again when CMC returns. So maybe we’re screwed. Maybe for the good of the league, I needed to take the hit and trade for Purdy and take a lesser draft pick back. Maybe I fucked up, gang. But if Sean really wants to win three in a row, and Max is not going to make the move for CMC, Sean has to capture that late-season 49ers’ offense while it’s available for the taking, if not for his sake, then just to take his main competitor out at the knees.
(Note: I’m not as out on the Rams as it may seem. I forgot that their starting left tackle was suspended for the first two games. They are still pretty awful on the interior OL, but the tackles are very good. Not stoked on the running game but the passing game could be okay for fantasy, granted it’ll be one dude, either Whittington or Atwell are my guesses, running quick little routes, getting like ten catches for 80 yards. Sean’s not starting Whittington, so it’s a moot point for this matchup.)
It all comes down to whether or not Shelby starts the right QB. The dope on Joey and the Pussy Cats is that Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t been getting targeted enough (probably because he hadn’t been practicing enough) and he’s going to get force-fed this week. This has the dual purpose of satisfying a squeaky wheel and getting the offense back on track for an 0-2 team. They’re playing the fucking Commanders, who let Daniel Jones lead three TD drives. Shelby, get the win: start Burrow.
Spencer, I think, is pretty fucked this week. The Bills won’t need Allen to do much to beat the Jags. The defense will be all over Lawrence. The Jags’ line is bad. Their best lineman played for the Bills his entire career up to this year. Malik Nabers is going against the Browns, Garret Wilson is getting blanketed by Christian Gonzalez, and Tank Dell isn’t getting those deep shots against a quick-to-pressure Vikings’ defense. Spencer’s not totally cooked or anything. There just isn’t enough upside to predict a win.
Shelby’s team is pretty bad outside of Burrow and Chase. She can help herself by upgrading the K and DX spots, and she needs to start Pickens somehow, just for the upside. Pickens’ toughest matchup of the year (Pat Surtain II) is behind him. He has more tough matchups (Jets, Browns twice, Ravens twice), but the Chargers are not in that class. The Chargers are a red-colored matchup for WR on sleeper, but that’s because they’ve only played the Raiders and Panthers. Okay, enough unsolicited advice. Shelby’s other starters are pretty obvious anyway. Go four-wide unless you’re afraid of Jaylen Waddle’s QB situation, and for RB it’s either Rachaad White is healthy or he isn’t (he isn’t). Spencer and Shelby are pretty similar in the IDP department (given they each find someone with upside for that DX spot).
Kind of a win by default for Cameron. Corey’s top two picks are out until November, and although Cameron’s team is not healthy, he’s not forced to start Devin Singletary and Ezekiel Elliot. This should be the week Cameron caves and starts Cousins, just for the direct matchup with Mahomes. Is there a difference between starting Dak against the Ravens or Cousins against the Chiefs? Dak is obviously the better player right now, but his surrounding cast is so bad, and Lamb is going to be triple-covered. Cousins is trash, but his surrounding cast is great, and his offensive scheme is generated more open throws. Honestly, I don’t think it matters.
Right now, Corey has Zeke in the lineup and McLaurin on the bench, if you need some idea of how bad he’s tilted by his bad fortune to begin the year. McLaurin has been brutal for fantasy, but you can’t bench him for Zeke. Bench him for Darnell Mooney if Cam starts Cousins. Mooney is a Sunday nighter, and McLaurin is a Monday nighter, meanwhile Dak is a Sunday afternooner; you have time to make the call. Just… drop Zeke. Also fill out your bench. Stop having an empty bench spot. We do this every year. If you really want to start two RBs, either grab Chuba Hubbard or just start Bucky. Either way, add somebody.
Cameron has the right idea starting Worthy against Mahomes. But please tell me you’re trolling starting Lamb and Cooks. You might like the know that in the one game Andy Dalton started for the Panthers last year, Adam Thielen had 11 catches for 145 yards and a TD, good for 28 FP. For what other scenario is Thielen even on your roster?
But yeah, Cam is getting 50 from Achane and Pollard, 20 from Aubrey, 50 from his IDPs, he probably only needs like 20 from the rest of his players combined to win this week. Mahomes, Bowers, and the IDPs will keep Corey in that 120-140 range for a second straight week, but it won’t be enough against a top-five scoring team in our league.
Brian continues to disrespect the game, and the game will continue to punish his insolence. I don’t think the Broncos present a great matchup for the Bucs, especially if Goedeke and half our defense is out, but assuming Surtain sticks more on Evans than Godwin, I think Evan’s fantasy team avoids the brunt of that blow. If I’m Evan, I’m starting Charbonnet at RB (maybe Swift, definitely not Moss) and going four-wide with Godwin, Harrison, Diggs, and DeVonta. If Minnesota is blitzing Stroud and Nico is playing through an injury, Diggs is the obvious target for quick and easy stuff.
Brian makes it a little harder for me by benching everyone, but here’s who I’d start:
QB Daniels
RB Breece (Thursday)
WR London
WR Metcalf (hand injury tho)
TE Freiermuth (gross)
FX Breece
FX Higgins*
K Bass
DL Verse
LB Quay
DB Branch
DX someone dumb*
*Brian has to drop one player to add a DX and should drop two players to add either Andrei Iosivas or Jermaine Burton as insurance for Higgins, or else he has to bench Higgins for one of his gross bench WRs.
So yeah, Evan has Baker, all the dudes I mentioned in the first paragraph, and he’s going to get his IDPs sorted by gametime. Might win by 50.
Yes, really. I’m confident that except for Khalil Shakir, I fucking nailed my starting lineup this week. The Pats and Jets are playing on three days’ rest and love running the ball, so each team is going to give their backup double-digit carries, these backups have juice, and these run defenses are banged up. Mike Evans and Brian Thomas are going to get over the top of some weak safety groups for Denver and Buffalo, respectively. Isaiah Likely over Mark Andrews again when Dallas gets cute and tries to copy the Chiefs’ strategy. (Kennedy is clearly feeling this Likely heat, continuing to burn a bench spot on a second TE.) Geno Smith probably throws twice as many passes as CJ Stroud this week. I am afraid of Bobby Time, but I think I assembled a pretty damn impressive IDP crew for this matchup. And Prater. So much Prater in a revenge game against the Lions. I don’t want to look at Kennedy’s lineup. He has so many actual good players and so many green-colored matchups. So many Lions. But keep in mind, the Cardinals are this year’s Lions; Sean’s team is counting on it, and Sean’s team is undeniable. It’s regression time for my garbage pile roster baybeeeee!
