You can tell yourself it’s just one week. You can tell yourself to be patient with your poor producers from Week 1 and roll them out there one more week. You can tell yourself that if it doesn’t work out, it’s still just two losses. I agree, in principle, that you don’t want to abandon your pre-draft strategy based on a one-game sample. But there are players worth adding and players worth cutting. It is important to churn the bottom of your roster. Get used to moving pieces. Don’t be precious. If your teen-round picks aren’t showing any promise (and aren’t rookies), dump them. Do it now before you dig in any further. I think every one of us has a droppable player. The obvious:
Max – Dallas Goedert
Kennedy – Troy Franklin (dropped)
Sean – Marvin Mims (dropped)
Coleman – Jake Ferguson
Cameron – Rico Dowdle
Spencer – Dalton Schultz (dropped)
Brian – Curtis Samuel (dropped)
Oliver – Chase Brown
Evan – Ernie Jones (dropped)
Doak – my whole bench (dropped)
Shelby – Patrick Queen
Corey – Cole Kmet
I can’t afford to give away my waiver targets this year. I need every micro-edge I can get.
Hugh Jackman over Ghostface killer
QB
Justin Herbert (@CAR) has the better matchup, but Anthony Richardson (@GB) has the cheat code for fantasy. Edge: Shelby.
RB
Bijan (vs.NYG) is the best RB in fantasy not named Joe Mixon, and Oliver has both. Shelby’s starting Rachaad White, who’s already getting eaten up by Bucky the Buccaneer. Edge: Oliver.
WR
Rough week for Shelby in terms of matchups: Chase draw McDuffie, DJ draws Stingley, and Pickens draws Surtain. Jaylen Waddle needs to carry the team this week. Oliver’s WR room (Aiyuk, Olave, Adams, Keenan) is suddenly the worst value group imaginable. Edge: Shelby.
TE
Kittle and Pitts feel like two of the best five TEs, but the whole position is starting to look like TD-or-bust. Edge: WRs that play TE.
FX
Najee Harris @DEN has some juice. He had 20 carries against Atlanta, and he’ll have 20 carries against Denver. If you know your RB is getting 20 carries, don’t overthink it. Starting Harris and Pickens together probably gives you bubble gut, but Pickens might just be matchup-proof.
Brian Robinson (@PHI on MNF) and Joe Mixon (vs. CHI on SNF) is just what Oliver likes from his flex spot, guys who show up at the end of the week and deliver just enough for the win. Edge: Oliver.
K
Who cares
DL
Oliver continues flinging darts at DL when perfectly normal, solid DL options are out there. Shelby starts Nick Bosa coming off a bad game. Edge: Shelby
LB
Oluokun (v.CLE) over everybody. Edge: Shelby
DB
Keisean Nixon doesn’t even need the KR scam, but the scam potential is much stronger this week with Indy probably not letting Gay handle kickoffs if he even plays. Nixon plays a prime Jamal Adams style role in the Packers’ defense. Tony Adams is just some guy. Edge: Oliver
DX
Quincy Williams and Patrick Queen are also-rans in my book, but at least Quincy plays in a defense that funnels things toward their inside LBs. Edge: Oliver
Proverbs 16:18 over Season 3
QB
Jayden Daniels (v.NYG) is Brian’s starting QB. If you’re already getting nervous about your QB, offer a trade for Tua. Stafford (@AZ) has nice matchup, but realistically you’re only getting 20 FP since the Rams are willing to run the ball and complete short passes all game. Edge: Brian
RB
Jonathan Taylor (@GB) should see his season-high in carries this week unless he only has to play three quarters in a blowout. Breece Hall played 100% of Jets’ snaps until they benched all their starters on Monday night. None of us really have the firepower to compete, but Saquon Barkley running behind that Eagles’ line with Jalen Hurts freezing linebackers is pretty much the best individual situation in fantasy. James Cook on a short week is kinda ooky, but Sean has to start him. Edge: Brian
WR
With Puka gone, Sean’s team is starting to look pretty weak. He punted WR thinking that Puka and Deebo would carry him until a clear third option emerged, and now it’s looking like he has to just press that Rams’ WR2 button again and hope. Brian’s WR room is wild. First Jayden Reed goes bananas, then Jordan Love slips on the peel. Then Tee Higgins is ruled out, then DK Metcalf and Drake London dud. Suddenly, Ladd McConkey feels like he has the safest floor while you ride those RBs for ceiling. Can you really bench DK or London after just one bad week? Yes, yes you can. But it takes guts. D-d-d-do you have it? Edge: Brian (reluctantly).
TE
Trey McBride was a victim of the Bills’ pass-rush smothering Kyler Murray. He was used purely as a safety valve, and it sucked. His TD upside is low because Murray’s stature makes him unlikely to complete TD passes over the middle in the red zone. Pat Freiermuth is basically worthless, though. Brian would be better off just stacking Ertz with Daniels. Edge: Sean
FX
Jerome Ford would have gotten 25 touches if the Browns had entered the fourth quarter in striking distance. James Conner is a similar player as far as usage, but Conner’s huge frame gives you more hope for first downs and TDs. Edge: Sean.
K
I like Ka’imi Fairbairn a lot. Tyler Bass is just another kicker. Edge: Sean.
DL
Matt Judon and Brian Burns are meh fantasy options with terrible matchups. That said, I rarely get IDP streaming right, so probably just keep starting them. Edge: Brian (Burns)
LB
CJ Mosley, JOK, EJ Speed, Quay Walker, these are decent 10-point options that each have their warts. Mosley is the best overall player, but his ceiling is capped because his surrounding cast is too good. The rest of these guys are fast but not great tacklers. Mosley and JOK at least give you INT upside. Speed and Walker are replaceable.
DB
Brian Branch and Devon Witherspoon are two of the best DBs in fantasy, and Brian and Sean got them absolutely free because we all suck at this game. Edge: Brian (Branch)
Kirkland-brand Meeseeks over Chasin a Win
QB
Mahomes (v.CIN) should score more than 17 FP most week, so you’d expect a bounce-back here, but the Chiefs’ defense and run game are good enough that Mahomes just doesn’t really need to pull anything special until he goes against a better offense (which doesn’t happen until maybe Week 5, more realistically Week 7). CJ Stroud (vs.CHI on SNF) has a pretty brutal matchup, but at home under the lights, I feel like we can ignore matchup and expect fireworks. Edge: Kennedy
RB
CMC probably won’t play until Week 3 @ the Rams, so Corey is rolling with Pacheco as his top option, which plays well with Mahomes. The duo combined for 33 last week, which is not ideal, but it also feels like their floor. Outside of these two, Corey’s lineup gets pretty bleak in a hurry. Kennedy is running split veer with Monty and Gibbs (“just give it time; it always works.”) Edge: Kennedy
WR
Pittman and McLaurin are both suffering from the grim reality that their offenses operate better when they use them as decoys. I don’t know why Amon-Ra had a poor showing in Week 1, but I assume he was also more effective at creating space for the other guys to operate. The Texans don’t need a guy who creates space, they can go anywhere any time, and they want to go to Nico Collins. Edge: Kennedy.
TE
Brock Bowers and Mark Andrews face each other this week. Assuming the Ravens try to take Adams out of the picture, Bowers should lead the Raiders in targets again. Conversely, the Raiders should try to copy the Chiefs’ strategy and erase Andrews from the picture. Edge: Corey
FX
Expect Rhamondre Stevenson to get 20 carries and don’t overthink it. Corey desperately needs to upgrade his flex options. Right now (assuming no CMC), it’s Singletary and… Zeke? They combined for 20 FP last week, so it’s not nothing. It’s just… that’s the story with Corey’s whole team. The ceiling is the floor. Edge: Kennedy
K
Moody had 27 FP last week. Harrison Butker hates women. Edge: Kennedy
DL
Parsons vs. Garrett is very fun and good. Edge: Corey.
LB/DX
Aidan Hutchinson faces the Bucs. The ‘Ders got decent pressure on Mayfield last week, but he was able to escape. Hutchinson doesn’t really let dudes escape. But Bobby Time over everybody, especially Jordyn Brooks. Edge: Kennedy
DB
Trevon Diggs is a great bet to lead the league in INTs. Xavier McKinney had a pick last week, and Anthony Richardson has a wild arm. Edge: even
Fart over ノ(ಠ_ಠノ)
QB
Josh Allen hurt his non-throwing hand, which is worth mentioning but also probably meaningless until he breaks it completely and needs a cast. You kind of worry about ball security, though. Allen used to fumble a lot. Jalen Hurts had trash stats against the Packers and still scored 25 FP. His ceiling is still the sky. Edge: Spencer
RB
Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams are no longer getting workhorse usage, but they’re still dominating usage in first-down/touchdown situations. Travis Etienne got semi-benched for fumbling in the end zone, and he has a terrible matchup vs. Cleveland. However, JK Dobbins is back from the dead and might be Spencer’s top RB. Granted, a lack of competition is doing the heavy lifting there. Edge: Coleman
WR
Tank Dell, Malik Nabers, and Garrett Wilson all hit their floors in Week 1, which was still good for 26 FP and a W for Spe. Their typical range of outcomes is going to look more like 30-70 FP. But Justin Jefferson, Rashee Rice, and Keon Coleman/Zay Flowers offer a pretty similar range. Still, edge: Spencer.
TE
Dalton Kincaid caught just one pass on just two targets in Week 1, but he was second on the team in routes run. But if Josh Allen is only going to throw the ball 23 times, Kincaid is another TD-or-bust TE, which is fine since they all are… well, all but Kelce. He didn’t score a TD in Week 1 and didn’t give you meaningful production, but the Ravens can actually guard him. Most teams can’t. Edge: Coleman
K
Chase McLaughlin nailed a 56-yarder on Sunday. Justin Tucker has made just one of his last six 50-yard FG attempts. We don’t like that. But we stan. Edge: Coleman
DL
TJ Watt over everybody. Edge: Coleman (but I like Hines-Allen’s matchup if Cleveland is still starting a backup tackle.)
LB
Roquan vs. Edwards is actually a tough call. Roquan is better, but the Bears do a better job of funneling the offense toward Edwards. Edge: Coleman
DB
With Winfield out, Hamilton and Derwin are the top two safeties in the league, but defenses know this and avoid them. I probably lean Hamilton vs. LV over Derwin @CAR because the Panthers will just go three-and-out every drive and Derwin won’t have enough snaps to rack up stats. Edge: Coleman
DX
Terrel Bernard is a sneaky elite IDP similar to TJ Edwards last season. Danielle Hunter is not sneaky but he’s also not a complete player, so he tends to disappear every other game. However, since he disappeared last week, it only makes sense he’ll have two sacks this week. Edge: Coleman
Blitz and Chitz over Pickleball
QB/RB
One fun thing about fantasy football is you can pit Baker Mayfield and Zack Moss against Lamar Jackson and Josh Jacobs and win at both spots. Well, you could last week. Honestly, you can this week, too. Edge: Evan.
WR
AJB vs. STA
Look, I’m not going to accept STA as a sympathetic character just because he had a bad experience with the police. I am conflicted because fuck the police. But I am too dug in to reverse position. Still, can’t deny that scoring more points wins you games. Edge: Max
WR/FX
Godwin, Diggs and DeVonta vs. Jameson, Kamara, and Mason. I am proud of Evan for getting away from D’Andre Swift early. Just force him to prove it one time. Going away from Marvin Harrison is scary, but when your WRs are what they are, you can’t really argue that Harrison is a must-start. Maybe over Diggs, who got all but three of his FP from TDs. But again, you make a guy prove it. Honestly the Jameson thing is a non-factor. The combined 45 from Kamara and Mason is enough for me. Edge: Max
(For the record, I would start Cooper over Jameson.)
TE
Here’s hoping LaPorta sticks it to Evan every chance he gets. Evan won the LaPorta-Breece trade last year, but this is the back door of the deal that maybe helps Max win the war. David Njoku is out, and TE free agency is such a wasteland that Evan added Mike Gesicki this week. Edge: Max
K
Nope.
DL
Will Anderson had a weak Week 1, but now he faces a weak Bears’ o-line. Jaelan Phillips has to try to beat a tackle who has 100 pounds on him, and then sack a QB who is basically his size. Edge: Evan
LB
Zaire Franklin and Alex Singleton aren’t sexy, but they score double digits about 75% of their games. Singleton is low-key a top-5 LB in Mortydome. I love Lavonte, but… nevermind. I love Lavonte David. Alex Anzalone is an upgrade over Ernie, fwiw. Edge: Max
DB
Jacoby Brissett won’t give Julian Love won’t get the same opportunities he got from Bo Nix. But Max can’t afford to pivot. Evan can definitely afford to pivot. Edge: Max
teeny tiny tony over Haven’t Learned
QB
Kyler Murray (vs.LAR) is in another probable shootout. Dak (vs. NO) faces another tough defense. Granted, this time it’s less likely the Cowboys’ defense carries them, so Dak should be closer to 20 FP. Kyler was just a couple plays away from 30 last week; I just have to believe that. Edge: Doak
RB
If Achane starts, which it seems like he will, then I’m pretty nervous starting either Wright or Wilson. But if Achane is ruled out, I’m pretty nervous benching either Wright or Wilson. In the case where I’m scared off the Miami backfield, I’m cornered into starting Alexander Mattison, hoping desperately for negative gamescript and checkdowns. Or I’ll just chicken all the way out and go back to Chuba Hubbard.
WR
Mike Evans vs. Carlton Davis is extremely interesting. However, it’ll probably suck for fantasy. Evans will just beat him silly, and Davis will commit DPI until the refs get sick of calling it. Mike Evans has long been the poster boy for why DPI yards should count for something in fantasy. I’m already nauseous. My Evans, Shakir, and Thomas don’t hold a candle to Cam’s Lamb, Kupp, and Worthy. We’re not even halfway through our lineups, and I’m down like 40 points.
TE
I am reluctantly buying into the Isaiah Likely breakout. Evan Engram scored half a fantasy point last week. Last year his calling card was volume, and the Jags’ offense is going in a different direction this year. The plan/prayer is for Engram to get deeper targets despite the lack of volume. Edge: Doak
FX
Taysom Hill vs. Tony Pollard kind of explains Cameron and my whole logos (that’s with a soft “s”) qua fantasy football strategy. I am chasing unicorns, and he is scoring actual fantasy points. Edge: Cam
K
Aubrey is the new goat. Edge: Cam
DL
Maxx Crosby is facing either a swing tackle or a rookie or a timeshare of the two. It’s going to be a tough day for Lamar Jackson. Khalil Mack is facing the Panthers’ only good pass blocker, which is making me consider dropping him for Joey Bosa. Edge: Cam
LB
Cameron has Fred Warner and Nick Bolton. I have Travon Walker and maybe Logan Wilson, maybe Wilson is too hurt to play. I am going to lose by 100 points.
DB
Budda Baker and Jessie Bates are effectively the same player. Start Marcus Jones, you coward. Edge: even
