As you (should) know by now, Week 1 is a melee. Top six scores win, bottom six lose. Top-scoring starting lineup wins $10 cash and decides the cash game for Week 2. It’s also (arguably) the table-setter for the most important waiver period of the season, the same waiver period where Sean scooped up Puka Nacua last season. There is a trope about Week 1 overreactions, but baby, I’d be more concerned about underreacting and missing out on a player who’s going to outscore half your post-draft roster.
This year, I’m going to try to predict the melee matchups, i.e., guess who will score first and last, match them against each other, then do the same with second and 11th, and so on. Why? Because I’m into this shit. I’ll start with quick and dirty previews of all 16 NFL games.
Thursday Night: Ravens @ Chiefs
The last time these teams met, Baltimore committed the choke job of the year when they rushed six fucking times despite leading most of the game. Their response: sign a RB you can’t possibly forget to use a minimum of 15 times in a playoff game. The Chiefs’ major changes on offense were the additions to the WR room: sign Hollywood, draft Worthy, bring back JuJu. They also improved the RB room by adding Samaje Perine in free agency after final cuts. They moved on from Donovan Smith at left tackle and drafted respected rookie Kingsley Suamataia. They continue to have the best QB and best interior line in the league. On defense, the Chiefs traded L’Jarius Sneed. All but two of their players on defense were on the team last year. The three-peat threat is looking good.
The Ravens notably failed to improve in area. The defensive coordinator walked, as did Jadeveon Clowney and Patrick Queen. They are starting a rookie and two sophomores on the o-line, but this is acceptable because they retained their plus-starters at LT and C. They are “starting” Nelson Agholor in three-WR sets. They are more likely (pun unfortunate) starting two TEs, with Isaiah Likely ascending to possibly even playing more than Mark Andrews, who has always had to manage snaps due to his diabetes.
The game itself: Kansas City should continue to be average or worse against the run. The Ravens should build their young o-line’s confidence and erase the sins of the past by pounding the rock with Derrick Henry and taking shots off playaction. That means crossing patterns for the fast, strong TEs. The Ravens should be fine on defense eventually, but the brain-drain and talent departures suggest that it will take time for the team to build up chemistry again. They won’t be the absolute buzz-saw they were last season, especially not right away. But they match up well against the Chiefs. Roquan can cover Kelce. Humphrey can cover Rashee. The X-factor is Worthy, but the Ravens drafted the fastest corner available in Nate Wiggins. Wiggins isn’t technically listed as a starter, but if the Ravens are smart and play Humphrey in the slot over Rashee, then Wiggins makes more sense outside than undersized and average-wheeled nickel Ar’Darius Washington.
The Ravens will slow down the game with the commitment to the run on offense and the two-high shell on defense. The Chiefs will probably move the ball efficiently on offense when Kelce and Rice beat their man a handful of times each. The Ravens have a decent interior, but they’re no match for Thuney, Humphrey, and Trey Smith. Pacheco will break through the second level and have a high yards per attempt. The sharpest take all offseason was that Pacheco would fully breakout this year. While Lamar and Mahomes draw the crowds, Henry and Pacheco will actually control the game. I would bench Zay Flowers and probably Rashee Rice, which is a double-whammy against Coleman. Trent McDuffie should have a hell of a game. I’d start Worthy because I see him having a boom-bust season where you just ride the wave, eat the duds, and win games every time he goes off.
Friday Night: Packers @ Eagles (in Brazil)
The Packers’ defense has been stacked for years, but they’ve repeatedly played conservative defense. This offseason, they hired a college DC known forhis aggressiveness. He doesn’t ascribe to the two-high meta, and a matchup against Jalen Hurts is a great situation for bringing a safety into the box. Hurts can throw deep, mostly because his best two receivers can win deep. Hurts is a thick boi who can break tackles and extend plays. The Eagles’ line remains elite despite the loss of Jason Kelce. New Eagles’ OC Kellen Moore is also famously aggressive, which worked when his QBs were Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert. I’m not as confident Hurts can conduct the orchestra like Dak or throw drop dimes like Herbert.
The Eagles’ defense is… weird. Vic Fangio is sort of the Bruce Arians of defense in that nobody runs his scheme anymore, and his scheme flamed out in Miami last year. The Eagles continue to ignore the importance of the green dot. They got lucky with the combo of TJ Edwards, Kyzir White, and Jonathan Gannon. Two full seasons later, they continue to think you can pay everyone but your inside linebackers. The offensive meta is tight formations, crossers, YAC… things you can’t defend without a complete LB. Devin White ain’t that. But what makes them simply weird and not outright bad: they have a shit-ton of talent everywhere else. This might help them against average teams, but the Packers have all the means to exlploit the Eagles’ deficiencies.
The Packers return all but two starters on offense, and those two starters are replaced by singificant upgrades. This offense doesn’t just have a runway, they have fucking lift-off. The difficulty is guessing who other than Love and Jacobs will benefit. We can only hope to employ process of elimination. Doubs gets covered by Darius Slay and is used more as a field-stretcher than a YAC/crosser type. Jayden Reed is a manufactured-target guy, which includes crossers but not as much as screens, sweeps, and flats. The crosser-guys are Watson and Musgrave. Maybe Wicks. Wicks is interesting and kind of frustrating. He’s techincally fourth on the depth chart, but he’s the most complete receiver. He’s also (among the top four) the… least senior? He was drafted most recently only in that he was picked three rounds after Reed, one year after Watson and Doubs. I would be least interested in starting Doubs, Musgrave, Reed, Wicks, Watson, in that order, and my confidence level is a rock-hard 50%. It’s all about Love and Jacobs. The WRs and TEs each have a 20% chance of a straight zero and a 20% chance of a 20-spot. I didn’t even mention Tucker Kraft, who played just as well as Musgrave last year (did I mention they were also drafted last year?).
I think the Eagles’ offense comes out flat overall, but the individual pieces are so electric that all it takes is a broken play or a broken tackle for any one of them to score 15 points on one snap. If the line does its job and turns the Packers’ aggressiveness into a weakness, then we could throw out this whole bit because the Hurts will have wide open throws, wide open running lanes… Ultimately, I would start my Packers and Eagles anticipating a Friday night shootout. I even debated throwing KeiSean Nixon into my DB slot for the kick return yards, but I believe the Eagles will see that Nixon has led the league in kick return yardae two years straight and just kick it through the endzone every time.
The wrench in all of this is the location of the game. No one can predict how the unfamiliar atmosphere and break in routine will impact a person’s performance. And it’s opening night for both teams. If anyone had insight to who the stone-cold professionals are, who’s unfazed by uncertainty and discomfort, that person would win their fantasy league every year. I would normally lean on the more veteran team, which tends to mean the older roster. However, in this case, I’m more attached to the more proven coach in LaFleur, the young team that trusts their coach wholeheartedly because they’ve never been hurt. So I’m back to thinking the Packers steamroll the Eagles in this one.
Panthers @ Saints
Disclaimer: I can’t possibly be objective about this game. I hate the Saints, I love Taysom Hill, and my starting lineup is one-sixth Panther.
The Panthers have done everything you can to turn a franchise around, by my count, three times in the last three years. Everything but new ownership (that change was four years ago). They have finally brought in an offensive coordinator with recent, meaningful success getting the most out of QBs the league was ready to give up on, most recently an undersized former number-one overall pick. They traded for a number-one WR and used their first two picks on WR and RB, the best RB available at that. They brought in arguably the top two guards in free agency. The offense should go from god-awful to league-average, a massive improvement in terms of fantasy value. God-awful offenses sometimes have zero viable fantasy starters. League-average offenses have two, sometimes three. (Note: the 49ers’ unstoppable offense last year had five, so three is great). If the Panthers are to have three fantasy starters, you would have to assume it’ll be the top RB (Chuba for a month, then Jonathon Brooks), Diontae Johnson, maybe Thielen, maybe Bryce Young (if it’s both Thielen and Young, we’re talking about a sold top-half offense, which I wouldn’t bet on. Carolina’s defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is excellent. His defensive is versatile and disguises coverage well. Carolina overhauled the personnel, adding two starting linemen, two starting edge rushers, another rotational edge, a green-dot LB familiar with Evero’s scheme, two starting safeties, another rotational safety, and a starting corner (granted, he’s replacement-level, but he’s familiar with the scheme, as well). This doesn’t make the Panthers good, but it makes it clear they are willing to do whatever it takes.
The Saints are famous for kicking the financial can down the road to preserve their playoff window. They have finally relented, but now that they are paying the bill, they couldn’t afford to improve. The popular speculation is that this is a lame-duck season for HC Dennis Allen, that potentially new OC Klint Kubiak could ascend after a strong showing this year. The only issue is that the offensive line is total trash. However, if rookie Taliese Fuaga can do what they drafted him to do, i.e., push people around in the run game, then they can make this 49ers facsimilie work and get Kubiak his fast promotion.
For this game, the smart money is on the Saints to be more ready out of the gate than the Panthers, but the Panthers are bringing enough front-seven juice, enough exotic blitzes, that they can probably overwhelm the Saints’ offense, generate some short fields off turnovers, and give their offense easy opportunities to gain momentum. I would confidently start Olave and Kamara. If you’re shaky at LB or DX, you can throw a dart at a Saints LB (Demario, Werner, Gay) and probably score 10 FP. Saints’ CBs Adebo and Taylor had great fantasy seasons last year, but that’s due in large part to a weak pass rush, a lot of runs getting past the edge, a lot of completed passes in general.
For Carolina, I am starting Chuba and Diontae, and I wouldn’t mind starting Adam Thielen. Young should have a good game, but understandably we all have better options. Defense: Derrick Brown, Clowney, Josey Jewell, and Shaq Thompson are are in the mix for double-digits. If you’re desperate for a kick-return scam, Shaheed and Blackshear are among the best (plus Shaheed is the WR2), and the kickers in this game have relatively weak legs.
I did not mention Taysom Hill. There is no way to tell what the Saints will do with him. Maybe nothing, maybe everything, maybe he even returns kicks instead of Shaheed. Whatever it is, I want it in my veins.
Vikings @ Giants
The Vikings were right to move on from Kirk Cousins. He wasn’t elevating their ceiling to Super Bowl levels, and he was way too expensive. Kevin O’Connell proved last year he can get production from lesser talent. The Vikings have a sick line. They can keep Darnold comfortable enough to hit those wide-open throws O’Connell excels at creating. The Vikings notably retained just two RBs, granted WR/KR Brandon Powell has that Curtis Samuel dual-threat game in his bag, and the Vikings are willing to use FB CJ Ham as a runner/receiver. They used him sparingly last season, but the point is they are willing to change rotate bodies in the running game. The fantasy money is to be made on Jefferson and Addison, and against the Giants’ weak secondary, Coleman might even make hay starting both.
The Giants are bad. They exposed their front office to deserved criticism in this offseason’s Hard Knocks. They are investing way too much money in the wrong spots. It is important to have a good front-seven. It is more important that you do it without paying top-dollar to more than two of the seven. Ideal cap strcuture pays out big money to one guy at each of the three levels of the defense. The Giants are paying their secondary shit, and it shows. They actually played this correctly last year by bringing in a blitz-heavy DC who doesn’t need the secondary to do anything but make tackles. It worked really well! This way, the team has money to pay a QB, WR, and at least one o-lineman top-dollar without mortgaging the future. The Giants were fine paying their LT Andrew Thomas, DT Dexter Lawrence, and LB Bobby Okereke. The added investment to Brian Burns would have been better spent bringing in Calvin Ridley, trading for a $20M/yr WR, offering more to the top free agents on the o-line. Your pass-rush is only as impactful as your ability to force the opposing offense into obvious passing situations. If you don’t have a good offense or a strong run-defense, you can’t get in those situations. You’re just burning money.
Okay so for the game itself, I would bet on the Vikings blowing out the Giants, Sam Darnold exorcising his Meadowlands demons, and the Giants getting one game closer to firing the front office and the coaching staff before their Week 11 bye.
I would start Malik Nabers but consider him a boom-bust. I would start Okereke and Lawrence before considering Burns or Thibs. I would ignore the secondary completely except to say that one or two of them should get a lot of tackles after allowing completions.
The Vikings aggressive blitzes will overwhelm Daniel Jones behind that trash line. This means sacks and TFLs, but it’s not easy to predict who will get there first. The Giants will try to counter this with screens, so there will be tackles for the DBs. But again, it’s impossible to predict who will get there first. You could get lucky and guess the right guy for either case (Jon Greenard, Harrison Smith, Ivan Pace are my top three, but Andrew Van Ginkel, Josh Metellus, and Cam Bynum make that complicated), or you could just pivot to another situation (hence the Bynum for Budda swap I made last week).
I am glad Max didn’t take me up on the Dimes-Perv double-or-nothing offer. Daniel Jones might not make it out of this game in one piece.
Patriots @ Bengals
On we go to another blowout. New England’s defense is good, not great. The loss of Christian Barmore to blood clots is brutal. The commitment to the back-to-front build of the Belichick regime has left this front-seven pretty weak. The bright side is the play together, move on a string, however you want to put it. They don’t allow a lot of cheap yardage. But if all of the talent is lined up high and outside, the offense can feast over the middle. The fear of the middle of the field is dead. This defensive build just doesn’t work like it did 10-15 years ago, especially not against a processor like Burrow.
It does seem like the Bengals will get Ja’Marr Chase a new deal before the season starts. Everyone’s doing it, Bengals.
The Bengals are content keeping the status quo. They will roll out the same offense and defense that got them to the Super Bowl three years ago. They are desperately trying to get Joe Burrow to run regular playaction, and Burrow is allegedly resistent to turning his back to the defense. He is probably (rightfully) afraid of getting blown up behind another mediocre offensive line. Zack Moss offers the best pass-blocking Burrow has had since Samaje Perine, which is why Moss will start this game. I doubt it’ll mean much, as the Pats should hold their own in short-yardage even without Barmore. The money is in the Mike Gesicki revenge game. But seriously, you start Burrow, Chase, and Higgins because you spent too much to bench them. Against that Pats’ trash line, you start Trey Hendrickson if you’re not sure about your DL (i.e., if you’re Oliver). I start Logan Wilson because he’s on the short list of LBs who clog the stat sheet. Not that you would ever need to, but if you needed to start a Bengals’ DB, Mike Hilton is the most secure in his role and plays closer to the ball than the others.
If you are starting a Patriot, you’re asking to me to pick you in the bottom-six this week. Rhamondre is the most obvious, and the Bengals also know that. If I had to pick the Pats’ top scorer, I would bet on one good bomb to Tyquan Thornton. Actually I would be on Christian Gonzalez to bait Burrow into a pick, or I would just take the kick return scam, potential two-way play in the return of Marcus Jones.
Steelers @ Falcons
Arthur Smith revenge game narrative, in Atlanta no less. The Falcons are a good bet to improve this year, but this won’t be the game you highlight to argue that improvement. The Steelers’ defense will start strong, the Steeler’s run game will start strong. The Falcons just won’t have the ball enough to get their new offense in rhythm. The strong bet is for Kyle Pitts, who is a matchup nigthmare for the Steelers’ LBs and safeties and should be Kirk Cousins’ favorite target in the quick game.
So we’re playing the Steelers’ top two RBs. For a millisecond, that looked like it would be Najee and Patterson. Now it looks like Warren will be back to split time with Najee, but Patterson should mix in anyway because Arthur Smith loves him. And we like Patterson for the kick-return scam, sort of, assuming the Falcons can take advantage of being at home and at least get across midfield for some Koo bombs.
This isn’t a great week to start London or Bijan, but you spent too much to sit them. It’s always going to be a great week to start George Pickens. AJ Terrell is a top-10 corner, but he doesn’t have the size to keep Pickens from coming down with those patented Russell Wilson moon balls.
On defense, we should be wary of the Falcons’ front-seven, which means we should feel comnfident starting their safeties, especially since those safeties are Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons. For the Steelers’ it’s Watt and I’m out.
Texans @ Colts
It’s only Week 1, but this game matters for the division. These two should be the top two, and whoever wins this game has an edge. The Texans are the obviously favorite and rightly should be. But in this game, I’d lean Colts. They lost this division to the Texans in Week 18 last season on a drop by their third-string RB on a pass from Gardner Minshew. Richardson and Taylor are back, and AD Mitchell has come aboard. It’s not nothing that Josh Downs is out, but it’s not enough to make me think, oh gosh, what will the Colts do without him. They’re going to overpower the weak interior of the Texans and test their rookie starters at corner and safety.
The Texans don’t have as obvious a path to victory, but they are so stacked on offense that they’ll find an answer. I know I said I lean Colts, but I was equivocating, hedging, being generally noncommital. The Colts have an excellent front seven, but their secondary is suspect. I like the size and speed, though. When you have the ability to rotate starting-caliber talent at three of four spots on the line, and the fourth spot is DeFo Buckner, all you need is a secondary that can make up ground on hurried, less-than-perfect throws. I wouldn’t bench any of the Texans’ starters (except Schultz, obvi), but I wouldn’t expect fireworks.
You have to start Taylor and Pittman. If we’re correct in assuming AD Mitchell mans the slot, you start him, too. The Colts love targeting their TEs, and the Texans are relatively weak at LB, but the Colts love targeting all of their TEs, not just the obviously best receiver among them (Kyler Granson, fwiw).
You have to temper your expectations of the Texans’ pass rushers. The sexiest play is Derek Sintgley. Richardson’s accuracy will be a talking point all year long. Eventually the story will be one of growth and development, but right now, Richardson is still just completely missing one of every four targets. Jalen Pitre will start for one of us this year. Why not get in early?
In division matchups, I like the kickers. And Ka’imi and Gay have long been Mortydome faves.
Cardinals @ Bills
Again, let’s throw objectivity out the window. I’m counting on Kyler and Shakir to be fucking dudes this season, and I love this matchup for both of them. I’m expecting (read: desperately needing) a shootout. The Cards’ front seven is pretty terrible, as are the Bills’ safeties. The Bills have a stout front-seven, even without Milano, but the Cards’ playaction game will be able to exploit the inexperience at LB. Josh Allen won’t be comfortable with all the new guys yet, so he’ll lean on Shakir, Kincaid, and Knox, and his own legs, and he’ll also make some bad decisions (this is the other reason I opted for Budda over Bynum).
I would be lying if I said I expect the Bills to lose this game at home. I do tend to believe the better QB wins the shootout, and I kind of believe Kyler is the better QB. Even with some holes in the secondary, I believe the Bills have a more complete defense. So I’m hedging and I’m vamping, and I’m picking the Cardinals to upset. I feel sick.
I’m starting Kyler. I want badly to have the balls to start Greg Dortch, but I’m more comfortable predicting an absolutely huge game for McBride. I don’t see the Marvin Harrison breakout happening right away. More likely the Cards vary the run game enough to create holes that make the Bills’ run defense look worse than it actually is. And Kyler gets at least one bomb down broadway for a big score.
If I had a little less faith in my LBs, I would go add Kyzir White. His 17-game pace in tackles last year was close to 150. If I were starting a questionable DL, like Oliver, I would take a stab at Ed Oliver (it just makes too much sense).
Please, please, please don’t start Keon Coleman. He’s not expected to start and is unlikely to create separation against the Cards’ corners. The contested catches are exciting, but the constant need to make them suggests this dude can’t consistently get open. My hottest take in regard to this game: Dawson Knox outscores Dalton Kincaid.
Titans @ Bears
I won’t pretend to have any idea how this game will go except that the Bears defense will play exceptionally well. The Titans replaced their whole coaching staff and a bunch of their offense and defense. That kind of turnover portends a slow start to the season. Football teams take a long time to jell. I don’t expect the Titans to get it together before their bye week, and their schedule might be too brutal for them to get it together for fantasy until our playoffs. They are the favroite to finish last in the division, but they have a chance to save themselves with two games against Jacksonville late in the year.
Anyway, this game is the Bears’ to lose, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win. They have a lot to prove on offense, and Shane Waldron, to me, is a bottom-10 OC. Like I don’t expect him ot be the OC or even an OC next season (unless it’s in college). The Bears’ o-line is does not stack up well against the Titans’ d-line, and D’Andre Swift doesn’t break enough tackles to overcome that deficit. The Bears also don’t really need to run to win. I mean, every team needs to run to win, but the Bears really only need to run for the sake of physicality and to keep the defense from playing back. I’d start whichever Bears WRs aren’t being covered by L’Jarius Sneed.
Jaguars @ Dolphins
This is the game of the week for fantasy purposes. The Jags have improved on defense, both in coaching and personnel. But damn, going up against the Dolphins in Week 1 having played zero real-game snaps… It’s bleak. However, the Dolphins are also implementing a new scheme, and their defense has zero momentum coming out of last season, so this feels like a shootout brewing. If you drafted a starter for either of these offenses, you do what you have to do to start them. Should Cameron start Mostert and Achane? Or is it Achane and Mostert? Normally, I’d do it without question, but the Jags’ hole on defense is in the secondary. Against the Miami offense, it’s the whole secondary. Miami’s defense is the inverse of the Jags’. The only thing nailed down is the secondary, the whole secondary. This hurts the shootout potential, but it also doesn’t. Miami’s susceptibility in the run game should force their secondary out of its comfort zone, force them to play closer to the line and allow for Brian Thomas Jr. to sneak behind for some bombs. Could it be Gabe Davis instead? To my severe detriment, it certainly could. I’m most interested in Etienne, Engram, and Lawrence, then I’m obviously starting Thomas, and if you’re thinking about starting Christian Kirk, I’d recommend clearing a bench spot for Gabe and making that switch.
Start all the Dolphins because of the likelihood they will score 30 on your bench in a melee week. Chase that upside. I want to be clear: Miami is better. It is more liekly they win by 20 than end up in a shootout. All they need is a little bit of pass-rush juice from maybe the fastest starting edge-rush duo in the league. The issue is that the Jags love screens and quick-hitters. To circle back, this again forces the Fins’ secondary toward the line and further increases the chance one of the two deep threats makes them pay for it.
As far as starting IDPs, I think you just play the hits. Start the guys you spent draft picks on. I like Jevon Holland and Jalen Ramsey in this scheme, but if I were on offense, I’d be avoiding Ramsey and targeting the LBs (thus the Engram stumping) and Kader Kohou. While targeting Kohou means targeting Christian Kirk, it’s the lack of PPR element in our league keeping me patient for the big plays to Thomas and Davis. Jordyn Brooks is a good play because the Jags will stay committed to the run in order to make the screens and shot-plays more effective.
Broncos @ Seahawks
I initially skipped this game because it’s so difficult to read. I’m kind of buying the Bo Nix hype. I’m not putting any money on it, not putting any fantasy stock in it, but I feel like I’m willing to buy in on Courtland Sutton before most people (like, Oliver—the Broncos fan—picked him one spot before I was about to pick him). I’m buying the Javonte bounceback (granted, I’m also buying the full-blown committee coming); this is a good offensive line for running the ball and for quick passes. One issue, and maybe it’s nothing: I don’t think the starting center is any good. He was picked in fifth round of the 2022 draft and has started one game. He’s already 27. He’s a relative lightweight. This isn’t backbreaking, but having basically zero starting experience from the QB and the center is not ideal, especially when you’re going against Mike Macdonald’s chimera defense.
The bright side for the Broncos is that the Seahawks defense is also coming in with zero real-game snaps in Macdonald’s scheme. It should take a month or two for them to heat up. They should even end up busting coverage this early on. Or, they are so stacked everywhere but LB (and even there they are okay) that the simple talent discrepancy compared to Denver should be enough for the Seahawks to pitch a near-shutout.
But what do we think of the Seahawks’ new offense? It’s a college coordinator in his first NFL job. He spent his entire college career working under/with an offensive-minded coach so respected in college football that he’s following Nick Saban at Bama. If the offense offers shades of UW’s recent success, then we should all be very excited about the discounts we’re getting on Seahawks’ skill players this season. Geno Smith and Noah Fant are still absolutely free in Mortydome.
Problem: the offensive line is fugly. They probably have a legit left tackle and center, but they aren’t knockouts. They are filling two starting spots with guys the Jets let walk after last year. It is bad enough to turn those potential skill-payer discounts into overpays.
Because the Broncos’ defense is good. There are some question-marks, specifically at safety, but the front-seven is excellent. The holes in the secondary are exploitable only if Geno Smith has time to throw, which… I’d bet against. In leagues where you draft team defense, I want both of these defenses, and I think I want the Broncos’ more for Week 1.
So fantasy-wise, I’m only starting DK and Walker for Seattle’s offense because they are electric and I don’t want to look dumb. I’m not starting any Broncos until I see proof they can do more than complete some slants and field goals. Lutz is a fine play, but there are 12 finer plays at kicker. (Okay, there are like seven finer plays and about 20 equal plays.)
On defense, I’m starting the elites Witherspoon and Surtain. The latter probably just locks down his man and gets no fantasy action, similar to Jalen Ramsey (everywhere but LA). Singleton, Barton, and Browning are all solid starts for Denver. I hope Seattle gets Byron Murphy II going right away, and while interior pass-rush rarely delivers in season-long sense, I think it’s okay to target a matchup with perhaps the worst starting center in the league. I would realistically avoid Seattle’s pass-rush anyway because Denver will lean on screens and quick-game. LB Jerome Baker is the only seemingly safe play.
Raiders @ Chargers
Your average NFL game has 125-130 plays, not including special teams. Usually you can bank on 50-60 rush attempts in the modern game. I could see this game’s rush attempts total eclipsing 80. 40 for each team, 15-20 each for Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, Zamir White, and Alexander Mattison, probably scraping five carries per side for the third-string guy, too. Now, the Chargers have no reason to lean run-heavy with Justin Herbert, but the two guys in charge of the offense would prefer, in a 60-play sample, to run the ball 40 times and pass it just 20. Raiders’ head coach Anthony Pierce also prefers to run the ball. New OC Luke Getsy arrives having just finished second in the league in rushing plays last season; his Bears one of just three offenses to run more than they passed. (The other two were the Ravens and 49ers.) Justin Fields was a big factor in that, but I’m willing to believe that the Raiders hired Getsy because his offensive philosophy aligns with Pierce’s desire to run the ball and play sound defense.
All this to say that this will be the most boring game of the week for fantasy football. The ceilings for the QBs and receivers are low. The ceilings for the RBs are low. I would expect those 80 carries still average in the 4-4.5 yards per carry range, netting 300 total rishing yards, probably four or five rushing TDs, but split among six different dudes, those drafted among them being taken in the 7th, 9th, and 11th rounds in Mortydome. I don’t think any of the teams that drafted them are even planning on starting them. And I support it.
So yeah, unless you pine for the 1950s, don’t bother with this game. Start Davante Adams. Start Brock Bowers. These are rare talents. (Sorry, Chargers. Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly don’t do it for me.) Start the top LBs (Perryman and Spillane, nasty stuff). But don’t expect to see it on RedZone except to see the ball disappear into a pile of dudes on 3rd and goal. Or to see Minshew throw picks.
I want you to start these RBs and soak up these points, but again, the invidual ceiling for any of these guys is 100 yards and a TD. That’s a great game to be had by one of four or five guys with no real signal as to whom. Zamir White is the most likely to lead in touches, Dobbins is the most likely to break a big run, Edwards is the most likely to get in the endzone multiple times, and Mattison, well, there’s a case to be made that entropy reigns supreme.
Cowboys @ Browns
I’m already on record predicting the Cowboys will be bad this year but also that the league will rig enough action to get them into the first round of the playoffs. But the headline-grabbing start, the narrative the league thinks they need, is to have the Cowboys come out flat and have to grind their way back. The Browns’ defense is still elite, and the Cowboys’ line is as bad as it’s ever been. Still better than two teams in their division, but those are two of the worst five lines in the league. The lack of practice reps between Dak and CeeDee will be a story. The Browns have three corners who can cover CeeDee, and there’s nothing that makes sense more than forcing Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert to beat you. Well, okay, it makes even more sense to force two dudes named Zeke and Rico to beat you. The Browns should be the top defense drafted, but I understand why people will lean Jets. (The Jets have a tough Week 1 matchup with the 49ers, but their schedule is smooth sailing from there.)
I can’t talk about the Browns’ offense without talking about Big Perv, so I just won’t talk about it until Nick Chubb comes back and I have to talk about it.
The Cowboys’ defense is absolutely worse than they’ve been the last couple years. They have worse players and a worse coordinator. Their coordinator’s demeanor doesn’t jibe well with that of their best players. If not for the inevitable rigging, I would predict them to end up with a top-5 pick. Honestly, with the whole Dak saga, the need for change in the coaching ranks, maybe what’s best for the league is for the ‘Boys to bottom out and get the top QB next April. So maybe it’ will be just as bad as it looks on paper.
I’m still starting CeeDee Lamb. After that, meh. I’m willing to miss out while chasing higher upside. Even though I’m not talking about the Browns’ offense, I’m starting the fuck out of Cooper and Ford and Njoku. On defense, I’m fading Dallas into the dirt, and I’m starting Garrett and JOK for the Browns. Assuming CeeDee plays mostly in the slot, I’m willing to start Grant Delpit and/or Greg Newsome. I’m also willing to believe Jordan Hicks is more active in the run game than JOK but would opt to avoid the whole thing over picking directly between them.
If you need a kicker, Dustin Hopkins set records at FSU way back when we were in college. He’s elite. Brandon Aubrey led all kickers in points last year, and he hit a 66-yard FG in preseason this year, so I guess he’s good, too.
Commanders @ Bucs
It wouldn’t be a Bucs championship season if they didn’t get start the season with a cupcake and end up slipping on it and falling ass-backwards into a glass coffee table. But we must hope! The ‘Ders are not ready to be good yet. They definitely aren’t ready to be good on offense. The defense has elite pieces, specifically two of the best ten interior linemen, but there are holes bigger than those two can mask. The Bucs should have an easy time picking on three-fifths of this secondary and taking advantage of Bobby Wagner’s, erm, lack of speed at MLB. The ‘Ders have exactly one edge guy with any run-defense acumen, so Rachaad White should be able to break away on outside zone runs.
As long as Baker Mayfield can avoid getting passes batted at the line (unlikely), the Bucs should feast on offense. I would be surprised to see fewer than ten screens, all for positive yardage.
The Bucs’ defense can absolutely dominate this Kliff Kingsbury horizontal raid by just having the edge guys get their hands up every play while Vea and Kancey crush the pocket up front. Jayden Daniels’ breakout will have to wait. Jamel Dean matches up well with Terry McLaurin, Lavonte erases whatever’s left of Zach Ertz, and there’s just not much else to worry about. I suppose KJ Britt could be a liability trying to cover Ekeler out of the backfield. Can that kill us? I’m unconcerned. (Cut to: the Bucs let Ekeler score three TDs and end up losing by 20.)
Sunday Night: Rams @ Lions
Great shootout potential, and everyone who drafted these players spent enough that they have to start them anyway, expect for the QBs, oddly enough. While you won’t feel dumb benching Stafford or Goff, you will probably have ended up benching your top-scoring QB. With Purdy facing the Jets, Sean may have just added Stafford to get that Staff-Puka stack for at least one gimme. Corey drafted Goff, but he also drafted Mahomes, and the Ravens’ defense shouldn’t scare anybody yet. So in that rare case where you drafted Mahomes and Goff or maybe Allen and Goff, okay, Goff won’t lead your QBs in points this week. But the Rams’ defense is so, so bad. They lost their DC and Aaron Donald and Ernie Jones. There is certainly Ewing Theory potential, and there is a lot of speed on this team. But the only player I would feel confidence in starting is safety Kam Curl. Eventually, DT Kobie Turner could be a thing, too, but I’ve already talked about the relative lack of juice an interior lineman gives you in our league. I don’t hate the Rams’ secondary, for what it’s worth, but they’re not ready to take on the Lions right now and hold them to fewer than three TDs.
I almost moved on without actually talking about the Lions. They are a weird team in that nothing has changed. They brought back all the players and all the coaches. They brought in some pieces to bolster the secondary, but I’m skeptical that will actually bear fruit. I do not think much of Carlton Davis at this point in his career. I think very highly of young stars Hutchinson and Branch. I also see the defense successfully funneling things toward the middle, making the starting LBs good plays when you get sick of whoever you’re starting now. My guess is Shelby is starting Alex Anzalone again next week.
Monday Night: Jets @ 49ers
Simple takes for this one.
The 49ers are coming into this game flat compared to where they left off last season. CMC hasn’t practiced in a month, Aiyuk just started practicing for the first time since last year, the defense has some key starters gone or out, and we don’t know what’s up with Trent Williams. Without Williams, the 49ers line is kind of bad. It at least lacks advantage. Aginst most teams, I wouldn’t care, but the Jets’ defense is elite, and Robert Saleh knows (theoretically) how to defend against this offense. I wouldn’t expect the number-one offense to show up in this game. I would expect that a little later in the year.
I don’t like the Jets’ offense at all. I don’t care about Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think he’s special. I don’t think the plan to shore up the offensive line is air-tight. And I definitely don’t think the WR room behind Garrett Wilson has anything Rodgers will be excited about. I also think that the 49ers’ area of strength on defense will be able to neutralize Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
This game could easily go under 30 total points. It’s Monday Night Football, there’s rust on both offenses, and these two teams that want to pound the rock don’t have impressive lines. Meanwhile, the defenses have imposing front-sevens. It’s fun to have Monday Night action in your starting lineup. It’s also repeatedly failed to make the difference in your week. Like, we can remember the huge Mondays, like Kelce’s three-TD effort that delivered Oliver an impossible win two years ago. The reason we can remember those moments is that there just aren’t that many of those moments to remember.
So yeah, screw this game. Screw Joe Buck. But you’ve gotta start the guys you drafted as starters. That’s just how you play fantasy football in Week 1 if you want to win.
You Don’t Pay With Money 250
Haven’t Learned a Thiiing 93
I am proud to be the comfort soft toilet paper with which the king wipes his golden asshole. Shove me deep, my liege, if for the fraction of a percent chance a modicum of your DNA rubs off on me.
Blitz and Chitz 185
teeny tiny tony 101
It’s no secret that veterans start strong. Max’s team is pure golden oldies, guaranteed to win him four in a row before they inevitably start crashing their cars into inanimate objects. Cameron’s team is so smol and the matchups are so bleak.
Fart 175
KB Meeseeks 120
Unofficial Swole Bowl matchup sees Coleman mow down his own family in broad daylight. No discernible weaknesses in this opening day lineup. Kennedy’s Lion trifecta cannibalizes itself, then starts feasting on his big brain.
ノ(ಠ_ಠノ) 160
Melee Schmelee 125
Josh Allen does Josh Allen things against maybe the league’s worst defense. Etienne gets 25 touches against a rough Dolphins run defense. Brian takes it on the chin for disrespecting the melee.
Ghostface killers 158
Hugh Jackman 133
All the cocaine in the world can’t power a rookie QB and the week’s worst slate of matchups to victory over the raw power of Anthony Richardson and quad-wideouts.
Chasin a Win 155
Pickle Rick’s Pickleball 150
Mahomes. McCaffrey. Bowers.
Evan maintains respectability but can’t eke out the W.
You can be sure of one thing: all of this is wrong.
