In these final hours before the draft, let’s crack open a PBR.
What does it all mean? Why do we play? These aren’t questions I can answer for you. Of course, winning is better, but winning at what cost? There’s a movie from the 70s called Slap Shot, where Paul Newman is a minor league hockey player-coach on the verge of retiring from play, and his team is on the verge of folding. Basically the strategy becomes to beat the shit out of the opposing teams, to fuck with them, to fuck them up, and—spoiler—the team starts winning. Like, if you want to win with a team of Trash Assholes, you do you. Some of them score enough points to win you weeks. It is a viable strategy if the priority is to win. It’s not like you actually have to be accountable for their actions. I mean, there is a risk with real assholes like Antonio Brown that their assholery costs them games, but for the most part, these guys are just rude, and if all you do is browse box scores, you can completely ignore that.
Whatever your philosophy is, know thyself and to thine own self be true. Fantasy football has gods, and it has karma. When you stray from the path you know is right, you risk peril, plain and simple.
My philosophy shifts from year to year, but here a few staples I try to stick to:
Talent, Opportunity, Atmosphere
This is the order of operations for building a winning team. You start by identifying the best players, the bona fides. That pool is very obvious usually dries up after the first four rounds. Then you need to pivot to opportunity, which is both who is already a proven starter and who has the clear path to the starting. Finally, either for tiebreaking or for figuring out what to do in the later rounds, you gravitate toward positive atmosphere. This deserves its own paragraph.
How do you know if a team’s atmosphere is good for fantasy? Technically speaking, it’s a slot machine because injuries can abruptly change the situation. But ignore that a little bit because we’re basing our whole draft on assumptions of stability and change anyway. The simple version is if a team is supposed to have an elite defense, their offense is incentivized to bleed clock and run fewer plays. Again, talent trumps. The 49ers were a gold mine on offense despite having a great defense because the offense was so fucking stacked and the playcalling mostly centered on getting the ball to those star players. The Texans are an example of a team this year where the defense is so good that the play volume will be low, but the efficiency, the explosive plays, should negate that. Conversely, if a team has a bad defense, they probably have to run more plays on offense, so if the offense is good, you’re talking about higher point totals, more yards, etc. If a team has a bad offense, there are very few ways this ends up being good for fantasy. Typically you need the absolutely best player on that offense, and you need to be prepared for that player to be properly contained every few weeks. Garrett Wilson made a living with Zach Wilson as his QB, getting double-digit targets more often than not, but his best game was 18 FP and his worst was -0.1. As often as he had double-digit targets, he had single-digit points for the week. But had the Jets even been slightly proactive in securing a stop-gap QB, Wilson probably would have been a consistent double-digit scorer, certainly scoring more than three total TDs. This is, in part, why atmosphere is the final operation.
For my personal philosophy, I believe in stacking. That means taking two pieces of the same offense and starting them in tandem. I don’t believe in stacking RB and WR. I don’t really believe in stacking WR-WR or WR-TE either. But I do believe in stacking QB-RB, QB-WR, QB-TE, and RB-TE. I don’t want balance. I want gamebreaking potential, or I want a rock-solid floor. Stacking is much easier when you have high picks. Starting my draft in the sixth with only Mike Evans on the team, my best stack involves waiting for Baker Mayfield late. Otherwise I’m stacking blind (Bryce-Diontae, Herbert-?, rookies). They’re there, but there’s not much there there. Because it has to be the receiver leading the team in TDs, and it has to be a significant amount of TDs. (My best stack opportunity might even be Nix-Sutton in that Payton offense.) The goal of stacking is massive spike weeks, Mahomes-STA of yore, Brees-SlantBoi, or like in my first year of fantasy, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison the year Harrison broke the receptions record.
Of course, part of my philosophy is I don’t draft assholes. That’s just to keep my enjoyment of the game at peak levels. It’s tied together with vibes. Vibes-based drafting, that’s my strategy. The vibes surrounding the Cowboys is terrible. I don’t care how good they were last year. Shit done changed. Their front office whiffed this offseason. They are heading into the season stagnant at best. Other teams with bad vibes (but maybe not enough to bury them): Browns, Jags, Jets, Giants. I’m also not crazy about the Pats’ but not from an overall vibes standpoint, just from the standpoint that their offensive line is tragic. Similarly, the Raiders QB battle and the Vikings default QB Sam Darnold. Teams that play on shitty fields like the Commanders, Jets, and Giants get dinged on my board, as well, which leads us to…
This can be the easiest or most difficult part. It’s one part knowing in what order you would draft these guys, one part knowing in what order they are typically drafted, one part knowing where they’ll be drafted in our league, and then you can decide to try to hold all that together or just let go completely and see what happens. Typically, the pre-fab board presented by sleeper determines the big picture, the general order guys will be drafted in. There’s only so long you can see the same player’s name atop the list before you relent and click him off.
Our league is especially stupid because we have the default IDP board, which is based on other IDP leagues, which are sicko-leagues that have been superflex leagues longer than they’ve been IDP leagues. So QBs are pushed up the board, and none of us know how to value IDPs, but we know they have the power to win weeks. (I’m not knocking anyone. IDP is impossible to figure out pre-draft. Aside from maybe the best five guys, we’re all getting our impact players in free agency after we have real data.)
Personally, I make my own board. I’m a fucking sicko, and I spend a solid 20 hours in August building this thing and fucking with it and coming to the conclusion that it was probably a waste of time because I’m just going to reach for my guys anyway. I’m also going to view certain rounds as keeper rounds. Specifically, logically, these are Rounds 3, 8, and 13. I want to reach for nick Chubb in the 3rd because I want him next year. I’m going to reach for [redacted] and [redacted] in the 8th and 13th because I want that team-control contract, baby.
As in be reactive, not proactive, as in I landed on the acronym PBR having only the P and B spoken for before getting into it. But this is a Reminder (ooh, another R) to look up from your board and make exceptions to your Rules (holy shit, so many words start with R) when you see a Run (my god, it’s endless) at a position. Generally speaking, you want to be the one starting the run, and if you subscribe to tier-based drafting, you want to be the one finishing a run, in the sense that you want to get the last guy in Tier 3 rather than waiting until your next pick to get the second or third guy in Tier 4. Who am I kidding? None of us are tier-based drafting (google Boris Chen if you’re interested in trying it, though). But in any event, understand why positions are color-coded. It makes it easier to identify the runs. It makes it easier to see the gaps in the board. For example, Sean and I are picking at the turn, I have… not so much an advantage, but a tiebreaker for my own picks in that I can see what Sean lacks and lean that direction if I view two players equally. I can also prepare myself for the incessant sniping coming my way each round. Tier-based drafting aside, the key runs to consider are QB, TE, IDP, and rookies. Remember that sleeper has a tab for rookies all the way to the right of the position tabs.
Okay, so let’s get more specific to our draft.
2-4 QB
Stroud, Love, Goff, maybe Purdy
5-10 RB
Achane, Montgomery, Kamara, Walker, Swift for sure
Maybe Pacheco, Kyren, Chaad, Singletary, Zeke, and Ford
6-12 WR
Puka, Evans, GW, London, Tank, McLaurin for sure
Maybe Aiyuk, Deebo, Nico, Rashee, DJ Moore, and Josh Palmer
1-3 TE
LaPorta for sure
Maybe Njoku and Trey McBride
0-2 DL
Maybe Mack and Burns
0-1 DB (sigh)
Maybe Winfield or Hamilton
Shelby, use that extra draft capital to bolster that late keeper. There are two many guys available for a discount for you not to make this move.
Last year, QBs were pushed wayyy up the board (see: Big Perv in the 3rd Round, Danny Dimes in the 5th). This year, that honor should go to WR, but it appears right now that it will be the RB dead zone that takes the cake. Basically, the best RBs will be available, then all of the sudden, in like the third round, it’ll be RBs outside the top-75 overall players. It will feel crazy. In the interest of icing out some good competitors, everyone who can keep WRs should. Kennedy, Cameron, and Evan are each entering the draft without a WR keeper, and Cameron comes in without a second-round pick, AND these three are picking back-to-back-to-back. Fuck. Them. Up. Do it for parity if not for your own odds of winning.
The top four players at every position are on the board to start, and they should all be gone by the end of the second round. If one of those elite QBs leaks to Corey at the 2-3 turn, he’s got a solid two-year window, and if one of them doesn’t, he’s reaching for Richardson, which is fun for everyone.
Coleman is going to dominate the draft. Just remember I said this when I don’t rank him first following the draft, and understand why this is the case. I’ll put it this way: last year, I tested the power of the commissioner’s curse by ranking myself first post-draft. I got burned so much worse than I thought was possible. It’s a very powerful thing, and I’m sorry in advance to whoever has the second-best draft but ends up first in the post-draft rankings (so Shelby, maybe you tank the draft juuust enough to stay under the radar).
Finally, though there will certainly be more in the next 48-ish hours, here is the injury/suspension/holdout rundown, starting with holdout speculation:
CeeDee Lamb should wear the Cowboys down and sign before Week 1.
Ja’Marr Chase should give up the fight because the Bengals are broke.
Brandon Aiyuk should sign an extension with SF before Week 1.
Haason Reddick has no leverage. Really not sure what he’s doing.
QB
Justin Herbert (plantar fascia) is practicing, won’t play in preseason.
Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) is practicing, won’t play in preseason.
JJ McCarthy (knee) is out for the season.
RB
Christian McCaffrey (calf) not practicing, expected to play Week 1.
Nick Chubb (knee) is doing side work, Browns “won’t rush him back,” might miss the first four weeks.
Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) “has a chance” to practice next week.
Jonathon Brooks (knee) is not practicing, expected to play Week 3 or 4.
Jaylen Warren (hamstring) situation unclear.
Zach Charbonnet (undisclosed) doing side work.
Jaylen Wright (undisclosed) situation unclear.
MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) situation unclear.
AJ Dillon (stinger) situation unclear.
Trey Sermon (hamstring) situation unclear.
Keaton Mitchell (knee) likely to miss half the season.
WR
STA-MIA (thumb) is expected to play Week 1.
Puka Nacua (knee) is expected to play Week 1.
Jaylen Waddle (undisclosed) is expected to play Week 1.
Davante Adams (sore?) is expected to play Week 1.
Keenan Allen (fat) is literally writing deep-dish reviews for Conde Nast.
Jordan Addison (ankle) is not practicing.
Christian Kirk (calf) is not practicing.
Hollywood Brown (shoulder) might play Week 3?
DeAndre Hopkins (knee) is not practicing, expected to play Week 1.
Mike Williams (knee) is doing side work.
Tyler Lockett (leg) is not practicing.
Rashid Shaheed (toe/foot) situation unclear.
Curtis Samuel (toe) “could” play Week 1.
Josh Downs (ankle) expected to miss Week 1.
Kendrick Bourne (knee) is on the PUP.
Roman Wilson (ankle) doing side work.
OBJ (undisclosed) is washed.
Ricky Pearsall (shoulder) is not practicing. Also is trash.
DJ Chark (undisclosed) is not practicing.
TE
Mark Andrews (car accident/undisclosed) is “fine.”
Brock Bowers (foot) is not practicing “as a precaution.”
TJ Hockenson (knee) expected back “mid-October.”
David Njoku (undisclosed) is not practicing.
Dallas Goedert (oblique) is not practicing.
Hunter Henry (lower body) is expected to play Week 1.
Noah Fant (undisclosed) is not practicing.
Tucker Kraft (pec) is expected to play Week 1.
DL
Will Anderson (ankle) is not expected to play Week 1.
Joey Bosa (wrist/hand) is expected to play Week 1.
Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) is expected to play Week 1.
Quinnen Williams (shoulder) situation unclear.
Bradley Chubb (knee) will probably miss half the season.
LB
Foye Oluokun (hamstring) is not practicing.
Matt Milano (bicep) is out until at least December.
Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) will probably miss half the season.
Jordan Hicks (undisclosed) situation unclear.
Kaden Elliss (groin) is not practicing.
Jordan Baker (hamstring) is expected to play Week 1.
DB
Kyle Hamilton (leg, hip, knee) is fucking up my late keeper sitch.
Jaquan Brisker (undisclosed) is limited in practice.
Kevin Byard (soft-tissue) is not practicing.
Talanoa Hufange (knee) is not practicing.
K
Who cares
And with that, I am done helping you assholes. Official start time for the draft is 4:00, but I’ll be on Zoom at least half an hour before that to catch up with people. My hope is that you all pay me money and lock in keepers through sleeper before then. Love you.
