We play to have a good time with our friends. But without a championship, there is no game to enjoy together. As in story, for a game to be good, it has to have stakes. Most people cannot enjoy a football game without some “action on it.” I think a lot about gambling money on sports, and I’m glad I don’t live in a state where it’s legal. I don’t even pirate movies anymore; I’m definitely not about to figure out how to pirate a 12-leg parlay using an IP from Eritrea. I’m good. Most people’s high roads is that they don’t really care about football or they have more important things in their lives than their fantasy team. I’m cool liking football and liking fantasy football even more. I’m into games. Never played a game I didn’t enjoy. I can play tic-tac-toe as long as I’m playing with the right person. That’s my high road: games are fun, and I want to spend a lot of time playing.
So I’m bummed out the fantasy seaosn is about to end and that I’ll have to wait eight months for it to come back. I’m grateful to have put in a full season of games with stakes. I got paid to write the note this season, and as a little dividend for you all, I paid full price to get to the championship game, to stay locked in and giving you the best I’ve got every week. The amount of time I’ve had to sit down and write has been slashed to maybe a third of what it had been. Evan was very smart to… what, extort me? No, it’s been good motivation. What is the word, though? Not motivate, not implicate… rope… me… in. What the fuck is the word? Whatever. Thank you Evan for roping me in and making me feel like I owed you all a note every week. It wasn’t my best work, but it felt good to keep the streak going all year long.
I’M IN THE MOTHERFUCKING CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!
I’m kind of faking the enthusiasm there, though. I’m stoked to be in the championship, but that’s not the goal. My goal is to win the championship. I’m fine losing. I’m fine setting a goal and missing the goal and learning from the miss. But ever since Kennedy offered me the number one pick, I’ve said to myself I’m going to do everything I can to win. I’m sure you think you’re doing your best. You probably are, within certain constraints, within the parameters of not selling out your future for your present. I’m doing everything I can to win. I’m even repeating mistakes other people have made in the past. I overbought, if that’s a word.
You don’t want to sweat your starting lineup once you make the playoffs. You want to set a lineup of star players and let Jesus take that wheel.
I had a weird fucking year. I have been leading the league in points basically all year. I was, like, third, for a minute super early in the year, but by the time I was 2-4, I took the points lead and never looked back. Around that time, I traded for Bijan, knowing that when I traded for him there was a good chance I would be trading him away a few weeks later. I didn’t expect to keep leading the league in points. I didn’t expect to make the playoffs. But once I got back to .500 which I don’t think happened until I was 5-5?, I decided I was going to go all-in. I decided at 5-5 that I was willing to spend my 1st to win the championship, and I acknowledged that there’s no amount of pick that can buy a championship. You’re at the mercy of the fantasy gods. My 2024 picks are my sacrifice. I have no expectations, no desire, only intentions. To do everything I can to win this year’s championship. And accept the outcome.
That said, it would be a much cooler narrative if Evan had pulled off the comeback Monday night. My bought and paid for team versus his homegrown one. Yankees-A’s, where I’d never have assumed I’d end up being the Yankees. But it didn’t happen. Sean got hot, like ‘99 Britney hot, threatening the all-time scoring record if a couple more things broke right for him, ending up with a season-high 219 points IN THE SEMIFINALS. That score knocks me out of sixth all-time and best my 2023 record of 213 points.
Gotta say: terrible time to have your best game. I don’t want to admit it, but seeing Sean and Evan go nuclear gave me a lot of confidence. It just doesn’t tend to happen two weeks in a row, mostly because when a player in any sport has a really good game—and to be clear, I’m thinking about Amari Cooper—their next opponent usually keys on that player. Cooper’s next opponent is the fucking Jets. Now, granted, the Jets fell apart last week after going up 27-0 on the ‘Ders, but they did eventually win 30-28, surrendering just 245 total yards in the process. It’s an elite defense that’s going to be very motivated not just to contain Cooper but to end the hot streak of former Jet Joe Flacco, to kill the narrative that they would be a playoff team if Flacco were there QB. I’m confident in that happening, in the Jets shutting down Flacco and Cooper (I mean, within reason; I can see Cooper getting 75 yards and a TD). And I’m confident Sean will start Cooper and possibly miss out on something better on the bench. Tyjae Spears is my gut pick—Tennessee’s season is over-over, and they want to trade Henry in the offseason. Even if they give Henry another 20 carries this week, I’m pretty confident he won’t throw another TD. I mean, having typed it, it felt like, um, not a sure thing he wouldn’t throw one.
Without mincing words, I am scared of Sean’s lineup. Jalen Hurts leads all QBs in rushing TDs and plays the fucking Cardinals, one of the worst teams in the league. Puka, Deebo, Cooper, Conner, and Henry have each made a habit of dropping 20 points this season. Without digging into the stats, if you told me Sean has had at least one IDP score 15+ points every week, AND he’s had at least two IDPs in double digits every week, I would believe you. If you set Sean’s over/under at 150, I would take the over every single week. Because matchups don’t matter for players who are good in the way his players are good: they play through injuries and break tackles. Essentially, they do what you expect elite football players to do. Sean’s only issue is kicker. You know, the totally random position no one has any bead on. Fabulous.
Sean’s gotta be stoked, though. He talked a lot of shit on Sunday, and it would’ve looked real bad if he had been eliminated.
I’ll break it down (by which I mean suffer a full nervous breakdown) later. For now, let’s eulogize four more of our friends.
Last week dead were Oliver, Kennedy, Brian, and Spencer. Oliver and Kennedy succeeded in playing a game with friends and made an epic slap bet, enriching the lore of one Joe Flacco in the process. A+. Brilliant execution. This is how you win even when you lose.
This week, we play Taps for Shelby, Coleman, Cameron, and Evan.
Shelby and Coleman went out with whimpers, which honestly should have been obvious after they sold off their entire teams for extra draft picks. (We can give Brian the same excuse while we’re at it.) So no shame in finishing 9th and 10th, though it would be nice to activate that matchup with some kind of side bet (not sure if it’s misogyny to exclude woman from a slap bet, but either way, alternatives are money or draft picks, or pink-slips, or first-borns… but draft picks would be best). Maybe if Shelby wins, she gets back the 6th she traded for Justin Herbert, or to make it a little less intense she gets the 6th back in exchange for a 9th? If she loses, Coleman gets the 9th without having to trade back anything? Work something out, for fun!
When I suggested Oliver and Kennedy make a slap bet, I did not expect it to be a mini-game. I expected the winner of the matchup to win a slap. I think I like the mini-game better! Maybe a little Dak vs. Brock, disgraced former MVP frontrunners? Maybe you each pick up a free agent IDP and whichever scores more wins.
Cameron and Evan won’t make a slap bet either because nobody will ever make a slap bet with Evan again, or they’ll demand that he wear an oven mitt, but Evan won’t agree to that. So again, bet a draft pick. Do it for your friends’ entertainment. It’s the season of giving.
Evan’s team played lights out to end their playoff run, and I realize that things would have been very different if I hadn’t won five straight to climb into second place. So all that trading (minus the Allen-Diggs trade which has yet to add points to my lineup and has in fact subtracted from what I would be scoring with Lamar and Flowers… so really just the Gibbs-Watt trade with Shelby) paid off.
Cameron would have won a melee in Week 16. (golf clap)
Again, if Coleman had stacked all the 49ers, he’d probably have won again. Brock might have sunk him, but despite his awful stat-line, his weapons scored well. I’m not going to go figure out what would have happened. I’m just going to let Max enjoy that win. Max would have beaten every playoff team in Week 15, but he would have lost to every playoff team in Week 16. So while missing the playoffs is a bummer, he’s better off playing for the #1 pick this week than he is getting slapped by Kennedy.
Shelby did not score enough points, and she wouldn’t have scored enough points even if she started her 20-point kicker, but if she had started her 20-point kicker AND kept Patrick Queen in the lineup (both reasonable choices), she’d be playing Max for the #1 pick this week.
As a result of the week’s action:
Oliver gets his choice of pick 7 or 8 next year
Spencer gets his choice of pick 5 or 6
Bye Weeks: Oliver, Kennedy, Brian, Spencer
9th Place Game
Ghostface killers vs. Krombopulos Michael
Winner gets their choice of pick 3 or 4
The obvious matchup is Dak vs. Purdy, two erstwhile MVP odds-leaders, two QBs with 40-pointers in their bags already this year, with two of the best QB matchups Week 17 has to offer. So this isn’t where this game gets decided. Like a real football game, this one will be won in the trenches. In fantasy, the trenches are your flex decisions, where being wrong often costs 15-20 points.
If either of these teams wanted to win, they’d have spent their waiver priority on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is so guaranteed to get 20 touches this week that I’m questioning whether to start him over Bijan. Obviously I’m tilting, but I think most of us would look at Shelby and Coleman’s lineups and find room for a workhorse RB.
I’m most interested in what happens between Rachaad White and Raheem Mostert. White has been incredible, with double-digit points in ten straight weeks, touchdowns in seven of his last eight, and 100 yards in four of his last five. Mostert is tied with CMC for the league lead in TDs, with seven multi-TD games this year.
On paper, Coleman has the better team, whether you’re into numbers or names, but his team has been wildly inconsistent. Shelby’s team has, too, so there’s really no logical prediction possible here. My guess is it comes down to explosives, either one bomb TD or a few IDP splashes. Shelby should probably go back to Patrick Queen.
Prediction: Shelby wins after one last Khalil Mack explosion
3rd Place Game
Lamb of SunGod vs. teeny tiny tony
Winner gets their choice of pick 9 or 10
Cameron should feel good about winning this one. Evan emptied the hopper against Sean, and his guys are gassed. He even had the Pickens explosion on the bench. Maybe we expect Pickens to be a thing with Mason Rudolph. But who do you realistically start him over? I think I fade Breece Hall on a Thursday against a good defense. I also think the refs are being paid extra to juice the Thursday game. But assuming the fix is not in, it’s the Jets defense playing for bragging rights over the Browns defense, and those Jets dudes are actually insane.
Whether Pickens is a thing or not, Evan has trash QB matchups. Love @MIN will only work if the Vikings keep turning the ball over near their own end zone. Tua @BAL is just not happening, though I do see it going better than Purdy’s Christmas goose. Evan should play the Rudolph-Pickens stack OR take a shot on Bryce Young against an imploding Jags team.
Otherwise, Evan has a championship-caliber roster.
As does Cameron, despite coming wayyy in last among the four remaining playoff teams last week. Goff in a dome is money. Pollard should have had a TD last week and the team will probably try to force one to him this week. Some Trash Asshole is way, way faster than anyone in Baltimore’s secondary. JJ kills Green Bay every time. Isaiah Likely is, for fantasy purposes, a 0.85:1 replacement for Mark Andrews. Tee Higgins apparently balls now. And then you have your choice of DeVonta Smith or Josh Jacobs, and the Raiders are suddenly in the playoff hunt. It would likely be a three-way comparison of Higgins, Smith, and Jacobs, where I would probably pick Smith and Jacobs just because Higgins is going to be shadowed by L’Jarius Sneed, who has the size to lockdown Higgins and has yet to allow a TD this season. Maxx Crosby and Logan Wilson are elite, Xavier McKinney is living up to his draft hype from a couple years ago, but CJ Mosley has fallen way off the last month, to the point that I might pivot to an Al-Shaair or a Jordan Hicks, who have shown more consistency while manning the middle of less star-studded defenses.
Evan has elite IDPs Bosa and Lavonte. It’s probably best to upgrade at DB and DX. Byard and Lloyd low-key cost Evan his spot in the finals. They combined for 9 FP when Evan could have spent a waiver on Kyle Hamilton and scored 19 just at DB.
Prediction: Cameron wins as Evan’s rollercoaster scoring continues.
First Pick Game
Piss Master vs. Chasin A Win
Winner gets that sweet, sweet number one
QB
Baker Mayfield vs. Matt Stafford
Corey’s been rolling with Jake Browning the same way Mahomes rolls with dirty undies during a win-streak, so I can’t hate if Corey keeps Browning in, but Baker has gotten very comfortable in the Bucs’ offense, and a win Sunday would be for a division title and probably a fat new contract. The Saints’ defense has been nothing special, and Marshon Lattimore won’t even play.
After dreadful QB play to start the season, Max is now in the unenviable position of having to choose between Stafford and Fields. Fields was better by 5 FP last week, but he’s the more volatile play. Stafford has the better matchup anyway.
RB
Najee vs. Saquon
Najee has had one 100-yard game this year, in Week 4. He hasn’t had a 20-point game, though he’s come close a few times. He’s been wildly inconsistent, with eight single-digit games (as low as 2.3 just two weeks ago) and seven double-digit games. But he’s the best Corey’s got.
The best Max has got is coming off his second 20-point game in three weeks, and he’s had double digits in 10 of 12 games. Better yet, the Giants are starting a real QB this week, against a creative but ultimately weak Rams defense.
WR
Lockett & Waddle vs. Metcalf & …?
The reason Corey hasn’t scored many points this season is because all of his players are up and down, and the reason he won last week is that most of them were up at the same time for once. Waddle has had a solid floor and a solid ceiling, but he rarely hits in the middle of those two extremes. Tyler Lockett kinda sucks now, but he has been in double digits almost every other week. I honestly think Waddle is going to leave the Ravens matchup injured.
DK Metcalf is finally being treated like a dominant #1 WR, so of course he has double-digit points in four straight weeks, and it should continue against a shaky Steelers secondary this week.
Max should have added Gabe Davis last week, and in case Michael Pittman is out again, Max should probably come up with something better than the choice between Diontae Johnson and Pop Douglas (though Douglas was good last week). Ugh. Free agency is pretty gross. I guess you gotta go with what you got.
TE
Pitts vs. LaPorta
Pretty fun matchup. LaPorta is what we think Pitts should be, and I bet next year Pitts ends up outscoring LaPorta. But this week, with LaPorta in a dome and Pitts at Solider Field, LaPorta is the much better of the two.
FX
Boyd & Singletary vs. Gus & Kamara
What year is it? How is Corey actually benefitting from starting Boyd and Singletary? I don’t understand it, and I don’t think this is a good week to keep it going. The Bengals playoff hopes will die at Arrowhead this weekend when the offense fails to do anything and the Chiefs win 20-10. Dameon Pierce scored a kickoff TD last week and will be featured on offense again this week. Granted Singletary will still “start,” he just won’t get the volume that generated his big fantasy weeks. Corey should have picked up CEH. Corey should start Terry McLaurin over Boyd and probably just roll with Singletary since he’s a starting RB in an okay matchup. But add Pierce as a keeper option.
The Dolphins are weak against the run, and Gus Edwards is back to being the bulk of the Ravens’ rushing attack. Good for another 50+ yards and a TD. Kamara had a rough Week 16, his only single-digit outing of the year. I think he’s back around 15 against the Bucs as the Saints lean on what works in their last chance to win the division.
I’m not doing Ks and IDPs for this one. Aside from Fred Warner, it’s a bunch of yuck, some good names with up-and-down production. I don’t see either Dicker or Sanders repeating their 20-point effort from last week.
Prediction: Max wins. His team is significantly better.
Before I dig into the championship (because I’m deeply afraid), I’m going to list my top 15 potential keepers as of Wednesday morning:
1. Dameon Pierce – potential starting RB
2. Bryce Young – dual-threat QB getting upgrades all around him
3. Devon Whiterspoon – the next Jalen Ramsey?
4. Josh Allen – 13.5 sacks and counting this year (26 years old)
5. Aidan Hutchinson – sophomore slump, due for a huge third year
6. Kayvon Thibodeaux – 12 sacks and counting (sophomore)
7. Jessie Bates – elite DB season, first year in new defense
8. DJ Chark – super-explosive when healthy, maybe just another MVS
9. Wan’Dale Robinson – unquestioned #1 WR if healthy (never)
10. Quentin Johnston – first-round rookie, maybe takes a leap
11. Treylon Burks – first-round sophomore, makes explosive plays
12. TreyPalm – if Evans goes and he becomes the new deep threat
13. Jalin Hyatt – has a handful of explosive plays as a rookie
14. Michael Wilson – plays a ton of snaps as a rookie
15. Jonathan Mingo – plays a ton of snaps as a rookie
And now, the 15 players who can be dropped to make room (worst first):
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Travis Kelce
3. Jason Myers
3. Nick Folk
4. Brandon McManus
5. Trevor Lawrence
6. Cooper Kupp
7. Jonathan Taylor
8. Patrick Mahomes
9. Ja’Marr Chase
10. Austin Ekeler
11. Davante Adams
12. Chris Olave
13. Aaron Jones
14. DeForest Buckner
15. Demario Davis
16. Ja’whuan Bentley
17. Darius Slay
18. Jordan Poyer
19. Gardner Minshew
20. Russell Wilson
All right, I’ve successfully dissociated from fear and can proceed previewing… deep breath… the final game of the 2023 Mortydome season.
Mortydome Championship
Pretty F’d Up Ooh La La vs. You Don’t Pay With Money
Winner gets pick 12 and makes a new rule
(and, you know, wins)
QB
Lamar Jackson vs. Jalen Hurts
Oh I’m FOR SURE still debating Lamar vs. Josh Allen, and I will be until my 10 AM Sunday. Lamar faces the Dolphins, who have allowed two 300-yard passing games this year, one to Josh Allen, the other… Will Levis? Dolphins have been even more stout against the run. The Ravens have been scoring a lot of points, picking up a lot of yards. Lamar’s last three fantasy scores: 46, 23, 28. Josh Allen plays the Patriots, who have been good on defense since their bye week… against a bunch of garbage offenses. They haven’t been good against Josh Allen in years, not in a fantasy context. They did beat the Bills earlier this year. That’s how bad things were for the Bills. Things are no longer bad for the Bills. The vibes are excellent. They won a trap game in a weird time and place last week, and now they’re getting a familiar division rival at home in a normal time slot in normal weather. I want to start Lamar. I’m very confident Josh Allen will have more points. I’m not sure it will be significantly more points.
Jalen Hurts is going to score 30 points. It’s just what Jalen Hurts does. He might even score more. He’s home vs. the Cardinals, who are terrible and also back to tanking. What would be super awesome is such a dominant performance for Philly’s run game that they never need the tush push and also Swift and Gainwell run in all five of the Eagles’ TDs. I don’t see that happening. I expect Hurts to score 35.
RB
Gibbs & CMC vs. Conner & Henry
If 100 people were given the choice of which side they wanted, I know which way 95 of them would lean. I’m worried about the wisdom of the crowd. I’m worried about the timeshare between Gibbs and Montgomery going back and forth, and I’m worried about CMC playing at FedEx Field, home of the most dangerous turf in the world.
James Conner plays @PHI, who, despite having the deepest, most balanced defensive line in the league, can’t stop the run? After allowing just one 100-yard rushing game in the first nine weeks, Philly has allowed six straight 100-yard rushing games. On the bright side, the yardage is decreasing. On the dark side, the opposing offenses are getting worse. Back on the bright side, the Cardinals’ offense is bad. Dark side: not as bad as the Giants. Derrick Henry is Derrick Henry. He's terrifying. He plays @HOU who he has smoked every game he’s ever played against them except for the most recent one. So either he has extra motivation or Houston has the blueprint. I’m assuming the former.
WR
Evans & Diggs vs. Puka & Deebo
Sean’s two WRs are scarier than Evan’s trio of Lamb, SunGod, and Brown. These two play for the best two offenses (design-wise) and consistently break tackles. I’m so scared. I want off this ride. Evans is having his best season ever, right? I mean, he’s not going to match the 1500 yards he had in 2018, but he’s one TD of his personal record, and he’s probably going to finish the year with his second-best yardage mark. I hope. I pray. I have no confidence is Stefon Diggs and am not even sure I’m starting him. Zay Flowers is hot right now, and if Keenan Allen comes back this week, I assume he’s getting 15 targets.
TE
Darren Waller vs. Dallas Goedert
I’m actually doing it this time! Jk, I’m only doing it if Cole Kmet is too hurt to play, but that appears likely! Full circle!
Sean has been starting Trey McBride, and McBride versus the Philly LBs is an excellent play, but the Eagles are using Goedert more to keep Hurts from getting stuck, and he hasn’t had a TD since returning from IR. I think Goedert has a big day, and I think Sean is worried I can actually predict the future when it comes to his lineup.
K
Justin Tucker vs. TBD
Right now, it’s Ka’imi, which is a good play if Stroud comes back. No Stroud, though, and you should probably pivot to Dan Carlson.
IDP Summary
TJ Watt and Antoine Winfield are #1 and #3 in IDP scoring this season. Danielle Hunter is #7. TJ Edwards is #11. Kyle Hamilton is #14. Ernie Jones is #18. Roquan Smith is #22. Myles Garrett is #30. Josh Metellus is #37. It’s an absolutely disgusting mess of incredible defensive players. Free agents Jessie Bates and RObert Spillane are #9 and 21, respectively, and you know I’m thinking about adding one to play over Roquan or Garrett, but I’m also thinking Roquan and Garrett should be scoring ahead of Spillane and this would be the week for them to leap that frog. I’m going to be physically ill.
Prediction: no fucking way I guess a winner in this one. You can’t make me. I won’t do it. My only inkling is that we each scoring fewer points than we did last week.
That’s it. That’s all. Next week’s note is the final note of the season.
