Corey scored 75 points last week, and he asked whether that was the lowest score ever. I simply have to repeat that the worst score ever was the 54 Cameron scored to lose the 2015 championship to Sean. (Oh my god, does our championship game need a name? Why doesn’t it have a name?) But that was before we increased lineup size and scoring. I’ve decided the cutoff Mortydome eras is 2019, the first year one of us broke 200 in a single week. Since 2019, only one other team has scored 75 FP (Tim, Week 1, 2021, RIP) and only one other team besides that has been under 80 (77, Spencer, 9th place game, 2022).
(2019 is also, conveniently, as far back as our sleeper data goes)
You might like to know, since 2019, what your worst week was. Well, you are in luck:
75 Corey (last week)
77 Spencer (9P, 2022)
77 Cameron (seven weeks ago)
85 Brian (last week)
86 Shelby (W3, 2022)
87 Evan (W6, 2021)
87 Coleman (five weeks ago)
87 Kennedy (W7, 2019)
88 Oliver (R1, 2020)
89 Sean (W10, 2019)
92 Doak (W12, 2020)
96 Max (W10, 2022)
As Baker Mayfield would say, “Get your weight up, lil’ boy.”
Something else terrible happened in the football world on Sunday, and I’m really not going to get into it. The ACC has always been the least respected of the “Power 5” conferences, but wow. To be undefeated and leap-frogged by two one-loss programs who already played each other this year, it’s… unflattering. I get that we lost our QB and our offense looked like dog shit against Florida and Louisville. All the discourse about “best” and “most deserving” is either dog-whistling or gaslighting and I’m too angry to discern which is which right now. It’s about ratings and money. Everything in America is about ratings and money. And not just TV ratings. I get a fucking email to fill out a survey every time I do anything anymore. I can’t get my teeth cleaned without getting three emails to fill out a survey about “how we’re doing.” You’re the dentist. You don’t need a Yelp score to get business. Apparently once you turn 34, you just chip your teeth on your other teeth now, so the dentist isn’t losing business any time soon!
But yeah, I would sooner fill out my ten-year back-log of customer experience surveys than spend one second taking this CFP committee decision at face-value and submit to the popular discourse about it. I don’t care about college football anymore. It was stupid to care. The older I get, the more foolish it feels to care about any form of entertainment. I’m in the business of having fun. Let me tell you: I cared a lot, and it really hurt when the decision came down. I told Stephanie how upset it was making me, and she asked, “Well did FSU play anybody good?” And friends, you can just imagine what that did to the rest of our Sunday. Oh my god, and then one of our friends came over WEARING A TEXAS SWEATSHIRT and of course also thought it was rational for FSU to be left out, and of course I’m surrounded by fucking UW fans who are above the fray and basically just pouring champagne on each other in the living room while the rest of us are in the backyard wrestling in the fire pit.
But hey, the Bucs are one win away from first place in the NFC South, I say as I melt like a snowman and pour into a nearby storm drain.
F’d Up 149 – 75 Chasin a Win
For at least a month, I was looking ahead to Week 13 and wondering whether I would punt or not. At minimum, I was going to be without my starting QB, K, and LB. I thought if I won a few games in a row and didn’t need the win, I might just not start a K or LB. Well, I’m not going to get into every detail, but I ended up squeezing a full lineup together (and an eight-man bench all on bye): my replacement QB, K, and LB combined for 12 points, a mid-game injury, and an ejection. Luckily I was playing Corey, who is no longer Chasin wins, at least not in the sense of, like, playing better players. Boye Mafe again? After two duds, his bounce-back was going to come against the Cowboys’ line? You did finally play Devin Singletary, only you waited until Dameon Pierce was healthy again. Which, look, zig when others zag, I get it. But not like this.
I scored enough to have won a melee, but it wasn’t pretty. I got more than half of my points (82/149) from Mike Evans, CMC, and Antoine Winfield. Corey had two players in double digits, led by Baker at 14.28, 11 of which came on a 75-yd TD to Evans where Evans ran 50 of the yards and flew the last five yards.
Myles Garrett had zero points while playing through a shoulder injury, which I find alarming.
Bobby Time 138 – 85 The Infirmary
Kennedy did a great job picking rivalries, so much so that I’m going to keep the tradition going: from now on, the final remaining undefeated team will pick the Week 13 matchups. Yes, a perk is being able to position yourself against a team without a prayer. Even if he hadn’t traded them away, Brian was heading into this matchup without Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Kennedy picked these matchups on Thanksgiving, so we didn’t yet know that Jonathan Taylor would be out, too. Good thing because Kennedy did not bring his A game. He and I both missed on Etienne, who actually led his RBs in points but wasted away on the bench. The best RB in this matchup was Chuba Hubbard, who posted a second straight 100-yard game and racked up 26 FP to lead Brian’s team in Week 13. Brian had four players in double digits and scored 85 points. Seems impossible. If CJ Stroud’s performance against Denver is any indication of things to come (with matchups against the Jets and Browns coming up), then Kennedy might just end up regretting that Fields trade, since it’s not like he got future capital out of it either. In the two weeks since Kennedy acquired him, Adam Thielen has 4.7 FP. Kennedy pretty much bailed on him, too, making another splash trade on Monday. Kennedy’s best player in Week 13 was Christian Watson, who scored two TDs and pulled his hamstring. A win is a win.
Piss Master 198 – 117 Ghostface
Damn, Max was just two points shy of his first 200-point game. But he led the week in points and put himself in position to compete for a playoff spot. He outscored Oliver by 32 FP, but at one point it looked extremely likely it was going to be more like 50. Either way, he’s a win and a little help away from his first Mortydome playoffs. It all came together this week. Stafford scored 33 against the Browns. His new acquisitions Kamara and Diontae combined for 40. DK had almost 40 by himself. LaPorta led all TEs in scoring. Max scored 198 FP despite just 16 from his IDPs, which I guess is cause for doubt.
Shelby was in sixth place heading into this week, and 34 from Dak on Thursday night was cause for hope. Rachaad White and Khalil Mack continued their hot streaks, but that was about it. Shelby got double digits from Elijah Moore, but no one else showed up at all. Noah Brown, Tutu Atwell, and Logan Thomas combined for 2.9 FP. Zeke had 10.2 on the bench and, with an injury to Rhamondre, might just save Shelby’s season next week.
Tags 166 – 120 Jags
And thus ends a flawed experiment. Spencer made a good bet when he went five-deep on Jaguars, granted none of them were Travis Etienne. But he didn’t know when he stacked Lawrence and Ridley that Doug Pederson was handing off playcalling duties to Press Taylor, and he didn’t know that Ridley would have a great Week 1 and then disappear for ten weeks. It was pretty fucked up. I doubt Spencer drafts a Jag at all next year, maybe never again. And he can only hope Tank Dell regains his role next year. A broken fibula ends his rookie year. I don’t know if anyone else is willing to admit what they offered for Dell, but I offered my 1st.
Oliver didn’t need to win by 40, but that extra cushion is crucial to Oliver’s position in the playoff chase. Mahomes’ lack of receivers remains a problem, but somehow Oliver’s lack of receivers has become a glut. Aiyuk, Nico, and Sutton stay hot, and Oliver adds Olave and Hopkins to the room. Then there’s Chris Godwin, who scored his first TD of the year but failed to crest 10 FP. Adding Kittle was cool, but he only scored half as many points as the TE Oliver traded away. The stars this week were the RBs: Kyren, Mixon, and Pacheco give Oliver an RB room as good as anyone’s, and something that never changes about fantasy football is that RBs are king. Sure, they can score seven points. But a dud of seven points is amazing compared to what WRs do when they dud. What’s interesting about Oliver’s WRs is they don’t really dud either. Only his QBs do.
Krombopulos M 188 – 146 Lamb of SG
We’ll probably remember this as a lost season for Coleman, but he was competitive in the points all year and lost close a bunch of times. I stand by my original assessment that this was a fringe playoff team. Sometimes you don’t get the schedule luck. If Coleman had Evan’s schedule, he would be 9-4. If Evan had Coleman’s schedule, he would be 7-6. So at 4-9, Coleman’s team is worse than Evans’ 10-3 team, but these teams aren’t as mismatched as the standings might suggest. If the season were a little longer, Coleman could probably have snuck back up the standings.
Evan didn’t have a bad week, but the RB situation is getting bleak. He might be back to Dameon Pierce being his top RB. Swift got hurt (maybe minor, but it’s been a problem for Swift before this year), Breece Hall plays for the Jets, and Evan’s only other option is Antonio Gibson. Evan has assured us he’s confident in his Eagles, but even Swift as your best RB is weak compared to your competition. Then again, the best RBs were already consolidated to playoff teams. Rachaad White was the only real game in town, and Shelby likely needed a 3rd to move off him as a keeper. But anyway, CeeDee, AJB, and Amon-Ra continue to do work, and it feels like the Evan Engram TD dam has broken. With Lawrence out and Beathard probably not able to operate deep or outside, Engram could finally justify his draft price during our playoffs. Does the Jordan Love hot streak start some QB controversy with Tua?
YDPWM 190 – 180 ttt
Yessssss! Cameron’s loss keeps me alive—actually makes me the favorite—for the 2-seed and the first-round bye. But the story here is that the game of the week lived up to its billing. This felt like a championship game. It had high stakes. A win for Cameron would have kept him in the running for the 1-seed. A loss for Sean with a low enough score would have jeopardized his playoff whole playoff spot.
And the game came down to just the perfect Monday night situation. Two teams with insane IDP luck entered Monday night tied with one IDP apiece left to play. Sean stayed lucky, Cameron’s shamrock shattered. Sean got a nice little zero from his second WR, but he spent a pick to rectify that situation. It is worth noting that Cameron scored 180 despite just 16 from his IDPs, and he was starting Brandin Cooks and Chig Okonkwo with Josh Jacobs and TJ Hockenson on bye (not to mention Justin Jefferson).
Sean gets the win but at a cost. Too many players got hurt. Hollywood, Henry, Puka, Hurts, Brian Robinson, and Amari Cooper left the game for at least some time. So you feel like maybe you got away with one, but you also feel like maybe the foundation is cracking. Sean’s got a bunch of scary players, but the real concern isn’t that they get seriously hurt, it’s that they get hurt enough to miss even one game because for the most part, they aren’t on competitive teams. When teams’ playoff windows officially close, little injuries can end players’ seasons. That’s not reassuring for Henry, Robinson, or Hollywood right now, and it’s not good if something should happen to Conner or McBride.
Moves were made. It was glorious. Here is every trade that went down since this summer:
Kennedy receives Austin Ekeler and Travis Etienne,
Doak receives Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans
CMC is the #1 non-QB; Mike Evans is #10. Etienne is #5. BUT Ekeler is #29 and missed three games. He has four games over 20 FP and five games under 10 FP.
Kennedy receives Travis Kelce,
Oliver receives Joe Mixon
Kelce hasn’t been classic Kelce, but he’s TE1 with only one bad game. Mixon is RB8 and hasn’t really had a bad game either. Oliver basically got Mixon for free though since he wasn’t able to keep Kelce anyway.
Oliver receives Marvin Mims,
Doak receives Diontae Johnson
The lasting impact, after I held an injured Johnson for five weeks, was that I was able to include him in the Keenan Allen trade. Oliver started Mims the week he beat me, so there’s that. But Mims is a free agent now, and Diontae was mostly on my bench. We should make more trades like this.
Evan receives Breece Hall and David Njoku
Max receives Sam LaPorta and Gus Edwards
Love this trade. At first, Evan won by a lot, just on name value. Then, Evan won on a huge Breece Hall surge. Then, the deal evened out as LaPorta became a top-5 TE, then Max kinda came out on top when Gus had that five-game TD streak, THEN Max came out super on top when the Jets started Tim Boyle and the whole offense suffered. It feels like Gus is losing his grip on the Ravens’ backfield, and this trade will still be a win for Max on LaPorta over Hall.
Evan receives Lavonte David and a 13th,
Doak receives Matt Milano and an 8th
Ugh. Made this trade minutes after the games started that week, so Lavonte scored 1.5 in my lineup (I lost), then went to Evan’s team and dominated for like eight straight weeks. And Milano got hurt the next week (I lost).
Shelby receives Justin Herbert,
Coleman receives George Kittle and a 6th
Yeah it hasn’t been good for Shelby. Josh Palmer got hurt, and the Chargers just don’t have another WR. Herbert has been up and down but mostly down, especially compared to Dak, who Shelby already had. It’s also looking like Jordan Love, who Shelby also had, is going to end up outscoring Herbert in the second half of the season. And Shelby lost a 6th. It hurts to lose Kittle. Shelby has been starting Logan Thomas. Coleman eventually flipped Kittle for a 5th.
Doak receives Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier,
Coleman receives Rhamondre, OBJ, and a 2nd
This trade was humiliating for like a whole month before it paid off. Rhamondre outscored Bijan, Allgeier outscored Bijan, OBJ outscored Bijan. Luckily the Falcons lost games and Arthur Smith was probably threatened by the owner. Now Bijan gets 20 touches a game and his playoff schedule is all trash defenses. More importantly it voided a slap-bet between Oliver and me.
Oliver receives Chris Godwin and a 12th,
Spencer receives Javonte Williams, Rashod Bateman, and a 7th
Um, so… it’s not going to matter, but this was a loss in value for Oliver. Javonte was probably better than Godwin—for fantasy—at the time and is definitely better—strictly for fantasy—now. I still believe in Godwin, and I believe that 7th rounders and 12th rounders can be spent on equally good players without anything crazy even happening.
Doak receives Zay Flowers,
Sean receives Dallas Goedert,
Spencer receives Christian Kirk
The first three-way trade in Mortydome history, where at the time Kirk was the highest scoring player among them by like 20 FP. Flowers and Goedert were five points apart. Goedert got hurt immediately, Kirk just went down for the season, and so I’m paying some very powerful people to protect Flowers. Goedert will be back for our playoffs, but Sean picked up McBride anyway. He’s probably annoyed he made this trade since it also necessitated the trade he eventually made for Deebo.
Doak receives a 14th,
Cam receives Darrell Henderson and a 16th
Value.
Brian receives Stefon Diggs and a 14th,
Shelby receives a 2nd
The Allen-Diggs stack was scary until it wasn’t. In three games for Brian’s team, Diggs scored 6.4, 1.7, and 16.4. Brian cost Shelby value by missing the playoffs. And then Brian packaged Diggs for a 1st.
Doak receives Jahmyr Gibbs, TJ Watt, a 12th and a 13th
Shelby receives a 3rd, a 4th, and Patrick Queen
Queen was “garbage to fill out my lineup” according to Shelby, but he scored 7.5, 10, and 14 points in three weeks he’s played since the trade. Gibbs and Watt have definitely been worth the picks so far: Watt has scored at least 12 every week, and Gibbs, well, he had a couple good weeks and now I’m scared. But I’d do it again!
Max receives Justin Fields and Dax Hill,
Kennedy receives Adam Thielen
My guess is this was a galaxy brain offer by Kennedy that Max immediately accepted. Nothing else makes sense. Adam Thielen’s whole season doesn’t make sense. Justin Fields has been underwhelming at times, but he had back-to-back games of 35 and 47 before getting hurt. I don’t know what to think with Thielen. He was a top-5 WR before the Panthers’ Week 7 bye; he’s like WR60 since.
Sean receives Tyjae Spears and a 12th,
Oliver receives a 10th
Sean gets his Henry handcuff and a little Puka insurance for his late keeper spot. Henry got hurt, but it’s not serious, but if it were serious, Sean might not even miss him. Spears is that good. A 10th is a great pick, especially from a playoff team.
Doak receives Keenan Allen,
Max receives Alvin Kamara and Diontae Johnson
Basically a couple things happened. First I was rebuffed on offers I made for Tank Dell and Justin Jefferson. I also need a 2-for-1 because of my bye week hell. I also just don’t like Kamara as a person. I’m starting to not like Diontae as a person either. Keenan is my boy, and he’s in range to break the single-season receptions record. Last time I won the championship, I had Michael Thomas the year he broke the receptions record. In order to break it, Allen needs 10 catches per game for the rest of the year. He has four such games so far, including a 14-catch game and an 18-catch game. The Chargers have nothing else going on. Might as well.
Doak receives Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs and two 14ths,
Brian receives a 1st and a 5th
A 1st is not to be treated lightly. If someone offers you a 1st, you pretty much just take it, unless you’re a contender or they’re asking for, like, four star players. I appreciate Brian for saying yes since I offered this 1st to multiple teams before someone finally took it. I was worried it wasn’t going to happen. Now I’m worried the karma will kill me anyway.
Oliver receives Chris Olave, George Kittle, a 13th, and a 15th,
Coleman receives Jake Ferguson, a 2nd, and a 5th
It’s probably surprising that Oliver would buy at the deadline with a 5-7 record, but he had the points, he had the RBs, and we have to believe despite the evidence against that Mahomes is the QB. If you make the playoffs, you have a chance.
Cameron receives Justin Jefferson,
Corey receives a 2nd
It’s a lot to pay for a WR who missed two months with a hamstring injury, who has played one game ever without Kirk Cousins, and the Vikings don’t even know who’s starting at QB the last five games of the season. (Read: I’m coping hard)
Kennedy receives Ja’Marr Chase,
Spencer receives a 3rd
Great price for Chase but also a fair price with no Burrow and no guarantee Browning can repeat that performance from Monday night.
Oliver receives Foye Oluokun and a 15th,
Spencer receives a 12th
One of a handful of IDPs worth trading for. I kind of wish I threw out a 12th for him.
Sean receives Deebo Samuel,
Coleman receives a 2nd
Including his own, that’s four 2nds for Coleman. If Oliver makes the playoffs, three of those 2nds will be in the top half of the round. At worst, it’s four picks between 17 and 24. It’s a little desperate by Sean. I’m pretty surprised Coleman didn’t settle for a 3rd. But it’s the one position Sean needed, so the most important thing was getting the deal done.
So to shake it all out:
Doak
Adds Allen, CMC, Bijan, Gibbs, Evans, Keenan, Diggs, Flowers, Watt, and an 8th.
Loses Rhamondre, OBJ, Kamara, Kirk, Diontae, Lavonte, and a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
Kennedy
Adds Etienne, Ekeler, Thielen, Chase, and Kelce
Loses Fields, CMC, Evans, a 2nd, and a 3rd
Max
Adds Fields, Kamara, Gus, Diontae, and LaPorta
Loses Breece, Keenan, Thielen, and Njoku
Shelby
Adds Justin Herbert, a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 4th
Loses Jahmyr Gibbs, Stefon Diggs, George Kittle, TJ Watt, and a 6th
Coleman
Adds Rhamondre, OBJ, Ferguson, three 2nds, a 5th, and a 6th
Loses Herbert, Bijan, Olave, Deebo, and Kittle
Oliver
Adds Mixon, Godwin, Mims, Olave, Kittle, Oluokun, and a 10th
Loses Javonte, Tyjae, Diontae, Bateman, Kelce, a 2nd, a 5th, and a 7th
Brian
Adds a 1st and a 5th
Loses Josh Allen and a 2nd
Sean
Adds Deebo and Goedert
Loses Flowers and a 2nd
Spencer
Adds Javonte, Kirk, a 3rd, and a 7th
Loses Chase, Godwin, and Goedert
Evan
Adds Breece and Lavonte
Loses Gus, LaPorta, and an 8th
Corey
Adds a 2nd
Loses Jefferson
Cameron
Adds Jefferson
Loses a 2nd
Points Reminder
2056 Doak (8-5)
1959 Cameron (8-5)
1943 Kennedy (7-6)
1936 Sean (8-5)
1928 Evan
1888 Oliver (6-7)
1835 Max (6-7)
1824 Coleman (4-9)
1808 Spencer (4-9)
1729 Brian (5-8)
1717 Shelby (6-7)
1638 Corey (6-7)
Reminder of the significance of the seeds:
Seeds 1 & 2 are first-round playoff byes
Seeds 7 & 8 are first-round pick ladder byes that exclude you from getting the Jerry (loser’s trophy for dead last place as the wind whispers, “Loser.”)
Round 1 matchups are: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5, 9 vs. 12, and 10 vs. 11
Each round “re-seeds” meaning the highest seed remaining will play the lowest seed. So if the 3-seed wins in Round 1, they will play the 2-seed in Round 2, but if the 6-seed wins in Round 1, they will play the 1-seed in Round 2. I will say this year, playing the 1-seed in the second round is probably a privilege. Because it’s Evan.
And his team sucks.
Here's the team-by-team breakdown:
Evan (10-3)
Clinched the 1-seed already despite three straight weeks of mediocrity.
Doak (8-5)
+97 over Cam, +113 over Kennedy, +120 over Sean
Clinches 2-seed if:
Doak wins OR
Doak, Cam, and Sean lose
Clinches 3-seed if:
Doak loses
Cameron (8-5)
+23 over Sean (8-5), +16 over Kennedy (7-6)
Clinches 2-seed if:
Cam wins, Doak and Sean lose OR
Cam and Sean win, Doak loses, Cam maintains points over Sean
Clinches 3-seed if:
Cam wins, Doak win, Sean loses OR
Cam, Doak, and Sean win, Cam maintains points over Sean OR
Cam loses, Sean loses, Cam maintains points over Sean and Kennedy
Clinches 4-seed if:
Cam, Doak, and Sean win, Sean overcomes points OR
Cam loses, Sean wins, Cam maintains points over Kennedy OR
Cam loses, Sean loses, Kennedy wins and overcomes points
Clinches 5-seed if:
Cam loses, Sean overcomes, Kennedy wins AND overcomes
Sean (8-5)
-23 to Cameron, -7 to Kennedy
Clinches 2-seed if:
Sean wins, Doak and Cam lose OR
Sean and Cam win, Doak loses AND Sean overcomes Cam
Clinches 3-seed if:
Sean, Doak, and Cam win AND Sean overcomes Cam OR
Sean and Doak win, Cam loses OR
Sean, Cam, and Kennedy lose AND Sean overcomes
Clinches 4-seed if:
Sean, Doak, and Cam win AND Cam maintains OR
Sean and Cam lose, Doak wins AND Cam maintains OR
Sean and Cam lose, Kennedy wins AND maintains
Clinches 5-seed if:
Sean loses, Cam maintains, Kennedy wins AND maintains
Kennedy (7-6)
+7 to Sean, -16 to Cameron, -113 to Doak, +55 to Oliver, +108 to Max
(and look: before you think I’m joking about including 100-point differentials, please know that Max outscored Corey by 122 points last week, but no, I’m not including Kennedy’s 200-plus differential with Shelby nor his 300-plus differential with Corey)
Clinches 2-seed if:
Kennedy wins; Doak, Cam, and Sean lose; Kennedy overcomes Doak and Cam
Clinches 3-seed if:
Kennedy wins, Sean and Cam lose; Kennedy holds off Sean and overcomes Cam
Clinches 4-seed if:
Kennedy wins, Sean loses OR
Kennedy and Sean win, Cam loses, Kennedy overcomes Cam
Clinches 5-seed if:
Doak, Cam, Sean, and Kennedy win OR
Kennedy wins, Cam loses, but Kennedy doesn’t overcome
Kennedy loses AND maintains over Oliver and Max
Kennedy, Oliver, AND Max lose
Clinches 6-seed if:
Kennedy loses, Oliver OR Max win AND overcome
Clinches 7-seed if:
Kennedy loses, Oliver AND Max win AND overcome
Oliver (6-7)
-55 to Kennedy, +53 to Max
(so no, not mentioning +159 to Brian or beyond)
Clinches 5-seed if:
Oliver wins, Kennedy loses, Oliver overcomes and maintains
Oliver wins, Kennedy and Max lose
Clinches 6-seed if:
Oliver maintains
Oliver wins, Max loses
Clinches 7-seed if:
Oliver, Corey, and Shelby lose; Max wins or overcomes
Oliver and Max lose; Oliver maintains; Shelby OR Corey win
Clinches 8-seed if:
Oliver loses, two of Max/Corey/Shelby win
Oliver loses, Max overcomes; Shelby OR Corey win
Clinches 9-seed if:
Oliver loses; Max, Shelby, and Corey win
Max (6-7)
-108 to Kennedy, -53 to Oliver, +118 to Shelby, +106 to Brian
(sorry, Corey)
Clinches 5-seed if:
Max wins, Kennedy loses, Max overcomes Kennedy and Oliver
Clinches 6-seed if:
Max wins, Oliver loses
Max wins AND overcomes Oliver
Clinches 7-seed if:
Max wins, Oliver maintains over Max, Max maintains his leads OR
Max, Shelby, and Corey lose; Max maintains over Brian OR
Max and Oliver lose, Shelby OR Corey win, Max overcomes Oliver
Clinches 8-seed if:
Max loses, two of Oliver/Shelby/Corey win
Clinches 9-seed if:
Max loses; Oliver, Corey, and Shelby win
Clinches 10-seed if:
Max loses, Corey wins, Shelby and Brian win AND overcome
Shelby (6-7)
-118 to Max, +79 to Corey, -12 to Brian
Clinches 6-seed if:
Shelby wins, Oliver and Max lose, Shelby maintains over Corey
Shelby wins, Oliver loses, Shelby overcomes Max
Clinches 7-seed if:
Shelby and Oliver win, Max loses
Shelby and Max win, Oliver loses
Shelby, Oliver, and Max win; Shelby overcomes Max
Clinches 8-seed if:
Shelby, Oliver, and Max win; Max maintains
Shelby, Oliver, and Corey win; Max loses
Shelby, Max, and Corey win; Oliver loses
Shelby, Oliver, Max, and Corey win; Shelby maintains
Clinches 9-seed if:
Shelby, Oliver, Max, and Corey win; Corey overcomes
Shelby loses; Oliver, Max, and Corey win
Shelby loses, Corey overcomes
Clinches 10-seed if:
Shelby loses, Corey and Brian win
Shelby and Corey lose, Brian wins, Corey overcomes
Corey (6-7)
-79 to Shelby, -91 to Brian
Clinches 6-seed if:
Corey wins, Oliver, Max, and Shelby lose
Corey and Shelby win, Oliver and Max lose, Corey overcomes
Clinches 7-seed if:
Corey and Shelby win, Oliver and Max lose, Shelby maintains OR
Corey and Oliver win, Max and Shelby lose OR
Corey and Max win, Oliver and Shelby lose OR
Clinches 8-seed if:
Corey wins, two of Oliver/Max/Shelby win
Clinches 9-seed if:
Corey, Oliver, Max, and Shelby win OR
Corey loses, Brian loses
Clinches 10-seed if:
Corey loses, Brian wins
Brian (5-8)
-106 to Max, +12 to Shelby, + 91 to Corey, -95 to Coleman, -79 to Spencer
Clinches 7-seed if:
Brian wins AND overcomes; Max, Shelby, and Corey lose
Clinches 8-seed if:
Brian wins, Corey and Shelby lose
Clinches 9-seed if:
Brian and Shelby win, Corey loses OR
Brian and Corey win, Shelby loses
Clinches 10-seed if:
Brian, Corey, and Shelby win
Brian, Coleman, and Spencer lose
Clinches 11-seed if:
Brian and Coleman lose, Spencer wins OR
Brian and Spencer lose, Coleman wins
Clinches 12-seed if:
Brian loses, Spencer and Coleman win
Coleman (4-9)
+95 to Brian, +16 to Spencer
Clinches 10-seed if:
Coleman wins, Brian and Spencer lose OR
Coleman wins, Brian loses, Coleman maintains over Spencer
Clinches 11-seed if:
Coleman, Brian, and Spencer win; Coleman maintains
Coleman and Brian win, Spencer loses
Clinches 12-seed if:
Coleman, Brian, and Spencer win; Spencer overcomes
Coleman loses, Spencer wins
Coleman loses, Spencer overcomes
Spencer (4-9)
+79 to Brian, -16 to Coleman
Clinches 10-seed if:
Spencer wins, Coleman and Brian lose, Spencer overcomes
Clinches 11-seed if:
Spencer wins, Coleman loses
Spencer and Coleman win, Spencer overcomes
Clinches 12-seed if:
Spencer loses, Coleman wins
Spencer and Coleman win, Coleman maintains
Spencer and Coleman lose, Coleman maintains
(Note: I went insane doing that and can no longer be held responsible for what comes next.)
It’s a melee week. We know what’s at stake. I’m just going to do rankings and then math it. First let’s talk about weather, which was a big factor last week.
Rain is going to be a major factor in Rams-Ravens, Jags-Browns, and Colts-Bengals. Rain is going to affect Lions-Bears and Texans-Jets but not as much. Sometimes avoiding weather doesn’t do you any favors. Sometimes the weather that’s supposed to happen doesn’t even happen. But if you want to decrease variables, the dome games are: Bucs-Falcons, Panthers-Saints, Vikings-Raiders, Broncos-Chargers, and Eagles-Cowboys. To be clear, I care about rain for QBs, WRs, and anyone who relies on making quit cuts.
Then let’s list which offenses and defenses are good or bad enough to overrule matchups:
#Good Offenses
Cowboys, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Eagles (passing), Lions (indoors)
#Bad Offenses
Jets, Pats, Titans (passing), Panthers (passing), Steelers (Biscuit)
#Good Defenses
Ravens, Jets, Browns, Pats, 49ers
#Bad Defenses
Bengals, ‘Ders, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals, Bucs (passing), Titans (passing), Eagles (passing), Broncos, Jags
Not to make this about Florida State again, but it’s hard to play good defense! Then again, I wouldn’t want to see the Pats in the playoffs. Then again, the Pats aren’t undefeated!
QB
1. Doak: Allen @ KC
2. Shelby: Dak vs. PHI
3. Evan: Tua vs. TEN
4. Oliver: Mahomes vs. BUF
5. Coleman: Purdy vs. SEA
6. Sean: Hurts @ DAL
7. Kennedy: Russ @ LAC
8. Cam: Goff @ CHI (rain)
9. Max: Fields vs. DET (rain)
10. Corey: Baker @ ATL
11. Brian: Bryce vs. NO
12. Spencer: Dobbs @ LV
Double-ups: Evan (Love @ NYG), Doak (Lamar vs. LAR [rain tho]), Shelby (Herbs vs. DEN)
Streamers: DeVito vs. GB, Jameis/Carr vs. CAR
I will probably never start Lamar in a rainy game. Light rain, maybe, but probably not. Never seen a player more notably kryptonited by water falling from the sky. Wicked Witch of the AFC North Lamar Jackson.
RB
1. Doak: CMC vs. SEA
2. Max: Kamara vs. CAR
3. Kennedy: Montgomery @ CHI
4. Max: Gus vs. LAR
5. Oliver: Pacheco vs. Bills
6. Oliver: Mixon vs. IND
7. Shelby: Chaad @ ATL
8. Max: Barkley vs. GB
9. Cam: Achane vs. TEN
10. Doak: Bijan vs. TB (w/o Vea)
11. Sean: Henry @ MIA
12. Spe: Cook @ KC
13. Kennedy: Moss @CIN
14. D’Onta Foreman vs. DET
15. Spe: Javonte @ LAC
16. Brian: Chuba @ NO
17. Coleman: Walker @ SF
18. Kennedy: Ekeler vs. DEN
19. Shelby: Zeke @ PIT
20. Brian: Warren vs. NE
21. Cam: Jacobs vs. MIN
22. Oliver: Kyren @ BAL
23. Corey: Najee vs. NE
24. Kennedy: Etienne @ CLE
25. Cam: teeny vs. PHI
26. Brian: Ford vs. JAX
27. Evan: Swift @ DAL
28. Max: Dillon @ NYG
29. Evan: Pierce @ NYJ
30. Dalvin Cook vs. HOU
31. Alexander Mattison @ LV
WR
1. Cam: STA(MIA) vs. TEN
2. Evan: Lamb vs. PHI
3. Evan: AJB @ DAL
4. Doak: Evans @ ATL
5. Oliver: Olave vs. CAR
6. Evan: Amon-Ra @ CHI
7. Doak: Diggs @ KC
8. Cam: Jefferson @ LV
9. Doak: Keenan vs. DEN
10. Sean: Deebo vs. SEA
11. Shelby: DJ Moore vs. DET
12. Cam: DeVonta @ DAL
13. Kennedy: Davante vs. MIN
14. Max: Pittman @ CIN
15. Sean: Puka @ BAL
16. Oliver: Aiyuk vs. SEA
17. Kennedy: Chase vs. IND
18. Max: DK @ SF
19. Max: Diontae vs. NE
20. Sean: Courtland Sutton @LAC
21. Coleman: Rice vs. BUF
22. Corey: Waddle vs. TEN
23. Coleman: OBJ vs. Rams
24. Cameron: Cooks vs. PHI
25. Oliver: Hopkins @ MIA
26. Sean: Cooper vs. JAX
27. Shelby: Elijah Moore vs. JAX
28. Shelby: Addison @ LV
29. Spencer: GW vs. HOU
30. Spencer: Ridley @ CLE
31. Sean: Jakobi vs. MIN
32. Kennedy: Doubs @ NYG
33. Oliver: Godwin @ ATL
34. Sean: Mingo @ NO
35. Oliver: Nico @ NYJ
36. Brian: Kupp @ BAL
37. Sean: Gabe @ KC
38. Evan: Pickens vs. NE
39. Cam: Higgins vs. IND
40. Corey: Lockett @ SF
41. Shelby: Noah Brown @NYJ
42. Brian: JSN @ SF
43. Brian: London @ TB
44. Shelby: Tutu @ BAL
TE
1. Kennedy: Kelce vs. BUF
2. Cam: Hock @ LV
3. Coleman: Ferguson vs. PHI
4. Sean: Goedert @ DAL
5. Oliver: Kittle vs. SEA
6. Spe: Kincaid @ KC
7. Doak: Taysom vs. CAR
8. Evan: Engram @ CLE
9. Max: LaPorta @ CHI
10. Corey: Pitts vs. TB
11. Brian: Otton @ ATL
12. Shelby: TBD
Streamers: Everett, Okonkwo, Hudson, Mayer
K
No
DL
1. Doak: Watt vs. NE
2. Sean: Hunter @ LV
3. Doak: Garrett vs. JAX
4. Evan: Bosa vs. SEA
5. Shelby: Mack vs. DEN
5. Max: Highsmith vs. NE
6. Sean: Josh Allen @ CLE
7. Cam: Crosby vs. MIN
8. Brian: Burns @ NO
9. Kennedy: Parsons vs. PHI
10. Oliver: Thibs vs. GB
11. Coleman: Reddick @ DAL
12. Max: Wilkins vs. TEN
13. Spe: Chubb vs. TEN
14. Corey: Mafe @ SF
Streamers: Will Anderson, Aidan Hutchinson, Kwity Paye
LB
1. Kennedy: Bobby Time
2. Oliver: Oluokun @ CLE
3. Sean: Edwards vs. DET
4. Shelby: Queen vs. LAR
5. Doak: Roquan vs. LAR
6. Evan: Lavonte @ ATL
7. Coleman: Singleton @ LAC
8. Evan: Lloyd @ CLE
9. Corey: Warner vs. SEA
10. Cam: Mosley vs. HOU
11. Spe: Bernard @ KC
12. Cam: Logan vs. IND
13. Max: Zaire @ CIN
14. Oliver: Quincy vs. HOU
15. Coleman: Kendricks vs. DEN
16. Corey: Bentley vs. PIT
17. Brian: TBD
Streamers: Jermaine Johnson, Josh Sweat, Shaq Leonard, Dre Greenlaw
DB
1. Doak: Winfield @ ATL
2. Spe: Bland vs. PHI
3. Brian: Derwin vs. DEN
4. Cam: Witherspoon @ SF
5. Brian: Ramsey @ NYG
6. Kennedy: Bynum @ LV
7. Oliver: Bates vs. TB
8. Shelby: Slay @ DAL
9. Coleman: Darious @ CLE
10. Corey: Pitre @ NYJ
11. Sean: Blankenship @ DAL
12. Evan: Byard @ DAL
13. Max: Jenkins @ CLE
14. Max: Sneed vs. BUF
15. Shelby: Dax vs. IND
Streamers: Kyle Hamilton, Jordan Poyer, Minkah
Okay so after a lot of intense math, way too complicated to bother explaining—definitely not as easy as just taking the six best QBs, no way—here are my predictions for the week, in groups of four because that's how the big boys do it:
Winners: Oliver, Evan, Doak, and Sean
Losers: Kennedy, Corey, Brian, and Spencer
Maybes: Coleman (W), Shelby (W), Max (L), and Cam (L)
When this inevitably happens, next week’s matchups will be:
1 Evan and 2 Doak on bye
3 Sean vs. 6 Oliver
4 Cameron vs. 5 Kennedy
7 Shelby and 8 Max on bye
9 Corey vs 12 Spencer
10 Coleman vs 11 Brian
Ah I forgot about one scenario worth mentioning: if Corey and Shelby both win this weekend (assuming Max or Oliver get squeezed out as a result), they can guarantee that the Jerry will leave their home in 2024.
