I understand how people get addicted to stocks and sports gambling. The thrill of the chase and the eventual capture over the last 24 hours has me floating three feet off the ground. Highly recommend it (next year; this is my year now). What will happen to my team when I don’t pick until the 6th Round? That’s next year’s problem, man. Right now I’m just happy with my stacked roster and with depriving my enemies of stacked rosters of their own. Was I bidding against myself for Josh Allen? I believe I was, but that will just have to stay a mystery unless someone wants to reveal themselves.
Is it “dumb” to trade away so many picks for a game that is essentially a slot machine? I mean, if you value $50-75, sure. But I gamble with the mindset that I’m going to lose the money. I’m spending the money with the chance to miraculously end up with money again. I went into this year embracing the reality that we are playing a game, and this is how I play games. I try different strategies and accept that the strategy may flame out. Now that I’m getting paid to write the note, the game is free, thus I am free. Well, not quite. I do believe the aphorism that as long as one soul is in bondage none of us are free. In that sense, I’m just rebellious. I’m betting on the notion that people are overvaluing draft picks, and so far I feel I’m being rewarded.
Without calling anyone out, I offered a 1st for a WR, a 5th, and a 6th; the trade was denied because the other player didn’t want to “give up” a 5th and 6th. But what do these picks actually become? My 5th and 6th were DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Tucker. I would trade them and my best player for a 1st unless I thought I was winning the championship. As a Christian McCaffrey owner, I’m fully bought in to the #1 pick being of immense value. I understand that five of our first-round picks completely flamed out. But I need you to be aware that seven didn’t, and four of them are now on my roster.
Seize opportunity.
Keep in mind that I am zero-percent convinced I’m making it to the championship. I believe I have the best team, but I also believe fantasy football is Buford Tannen, willing to shoot you in the back over a matter of 80 dollars. I’m accepting the potential for loss this year and next and enjoying whatever comes next. Today, anyway.
What else happened this week?
Nothing like a little Bucs-Colts to make you feel like you’re being strangled for three hours. Mercifully it ends in a loss and the Bucs are one step closer to drafting a new QB. Nothing against Baker personally or even against his play, given his limitations. I just don’t want to root for a short QB anymore. It hamstrings the offense, the same offense that hit its season-high in rushing yards this week while failing to reach 200 passing yards. Before their bye week, the Bucs were 3-1. Since the bye, they are 1-6. Two of the wins were against the Vikings and Bears, who just tried as hard as they could to lose to each other on Monday Night Football. Josh Dobbs threw four interceptions, but he almost won, which would have made him the first QB since Lamar to do so. Jameis Winston threw four interceptions in six different games and lost all of them. Being a Bucs fan is like watching the climax of Back to the Future: Part III, only with the 50/50 chance that everyone ends up in the ravine.
(note: I wrote a bunch of this before my trades went down; the notes are anything but evergreen.)
Tags 180 – 168 Jags
Speaking of spoilers, or train wrecks, take your pick, Spencer’s season came to a crashing halt when Oliver’s team scored, I believe, 60 points in the second half of the late-afternoon games? That was from four players, one of whom scored zero in that second half. James Cook and Terrel Bernard made their effort, even utilizing overtime, but it would have taken a 60-yd TD from either Cook or Kincaid to deliver the win. This matchup kept being firmly in Spencer’s hand and then kept getting ripped away. On Thanksgiving, DaRon Bland broke the NFL record for defensive TDs in a season, netting Spencer 23 FP, but later that day, Jordyn Brooks—coming off back-to-back games under 3 FP—racked up 12 tackles and scored a pick-six of his own. On Sunday, the Jags’ offense exploded, Spencer’s five Jags combined for 88 FP, and with about four minutes left in the first half of the Chiefs’ game, Spencer had nearly a 90% chance to win, according to sleeper’s fail-proof and not at all unreliable metrics. Five touchdowns later. He’s dust. And just when the Jags were figuring it out!
Ghost 146 – 110 Piss
Shelby is deep in her serial killer bag right now. Dak is killing people in broad daylight, but everyone else is coming out of the shadows. Rachaad White had 100 yards rushing on just 15 carries. Tutu Atwell 10 FP on three catches. Khalil Mack is definitely about to get suspended for PEDs. Patrick Queen was, according to Shelby, “garbage to fill out my roster” on the backend of our Gibbs-Watt trade. Shelby doesn’t have a real TE or even a second flex, but it does not matter if your QB is scoring 40 and your opponent is underperforming AND you get to face that same opponent again next week.
Max: trading Thielen for Fields (AND something) was, uh, flabbergasting? Fields is a keeper who will either get another WR upgrade this offseason or will get traded to a whole new team ready to design the offense around him doing things that win fantasy games. And you got him for a guy who’s starting to smell like fermented bread. So even though you’re one loss away from elimination, even though Fields looked bad this week (which, honestly, he looked about as good as he could given his coaches’ weaknesses and his opponent’s strengths), with Fields and LaPorta as keepers and the freedom to start selling off assets, you can set yourself up to win and win convincingly in 2024. Man, it is brutal to need a win like you did this week and put up a simply noncompetitive score.
Lamb of SunGod 130 – 108 Chasin a Win
But nothing says noncompetitive like what Corey’s put on tape in two weeks without Burrow. Two weeks in a row at the bottom of the league in scoring, and Corey now trails the entire league in scoring, and not by a little. After stat corrections last week, he trailed Shelby by less than a point. Now he trails by 37, and that difference is all the difference, as it is the tiebreaker that makes Shelby the last team in the playoffs and Corey the first team out. Corey can still get back in with wins, but how do you win without points? The answer the last two weeks has been to play against Corey, so we’re in a real thought-pretzel here.
Evan only scored 130, but he barrels his way to ten wins, and he is one win away from clinching the 1-seed, the first-round bye, the everything. He’s going to trade for Josh Allen this week, and he’s going to win this whole thing unless someone else gets seriously lucky. Not much to say about his performance this week other than Josh Dobbs and Tua aren’t getting it done, but throw Brian that classic conditional 2nd-becomes-a-1st and you’ve got yourself the top QB to go with three of the top five WRs. If Evan had Josh Allen this week, he would have finished with over 170 FP. Granted, that would have been just the fourth-highest score, but that beats third-lowest, if I’m doing my math right.
Ooh La La 196 – 158 The Infirm
Brian had 50 from Josh Allen, and it just didn’t matter. My lowest score 7, my highest was 32, I had four players score multiple TDs. Great week. Not a great time to peak! But I believe 196 gives me the top two highest scoring weeks of the year. I’m not bragging; I’m enjoying it while it lasts. By the time I publish the note, I will almost definitely have traded away my 2024 1st and probably my 5th, meaning I’ll start drafting at the end of the fifth round—or the middle if everything goes wrong. But I hit 196 with just 16 from Lamar, which would imply meat on the bone, but I don’t know. I don’t know if there’s meat on that bone. It is Lamar’s sixth week under 17 FP. He has zero games between 17 and 25 FP. It’s basically either 15 or it’s 30. To the point that I inquired about Josh Allen. I thought about playing keep-away from Evan and instead of having a great QB having the best QB. I’m still thinking about it, whether it’s Tuesday morning or Thursday morning or Super Bowl morning or the morning of the day of my death, I’m thinking at least once about the time I either did or didn’t trade for Josh Allen during my Back to the Future: Part III climax toward the cliff of a season in 2023.
Brian’s season isn’t over, but he heads into Week 13 in ninth place, with Allen and Diggs on bye. More on that when I break down playoff scenarios. Brian had a great week and still finished fifth in scoring, so it’s not like he just got a little unlucky. It was a boom week for fantasy, and he just wasn’t as in on it as other teams. His IDPs were underwhelming, Cooper Kupp sucks now, Michael Mayer is not a serious option at TE, and the timeshare RBs failed to find the endzone. But for all that to go wrong and to score 150+, that’s the magic of Josh Allen. That’s worthy of a first-round pick, either in draft or in trade. Don’t low-ball Brian on this. Don’t do that to the integrity of the league. Yes, you can argue that Brian paid a first for a whole season of Allen, and you’re only paying for four games, but also fuck right off. If you want to pay for a championship, you pay full price. I’m fine with the conditional pick, but if you indeed win the championship, Brian should get a 1st. Hell, I’m even fine with the condition riding on Josh Allen’s performance. If Josh Allen averages 30 FP over three playoff games, Brian gets your 1st. But listen: if I indeed bite the bullet and trade a 1st for Josh Allen, I’m trading a 1st straight-up (mostly because my next best pick is a 5th but ignore that).
ttt 182 – 155 YDPWM
The other QB I’m considering as an upgrade over Lamar is Jalen Hurts. Now, Sean is a playoff team and after scoring 155 doesn’t appear to be a deadline seller. But what if he scores 130 and loses this week, falling to 7-6, possibly finding himself tied for sixth, one loss away from losing a points tiebreaker to Oliver and missing the playoffs altogether. I bet he’d take a 1st for Jalen Hurts today over the maybe 15-20% chance he has of winning the championship. This is a gravy year for Sean. He’s not chasing this championship. After the draft he had, it’s a miracle (and frankly an indictment on the rest of us) that he’s even here. Jalen Hurts is that miracle incarnate. And not sure if I’m faithfully quoting Encanto or not, but the miracle is dying. If I come to you with my 1st, I’m not sure how you say no.
But fine, if we are ostensibly doing recaps, let’s talk about how smoking hot Cameron’s team is. Jared Goff lost three fumbles and still scored 22 FP. Josh Jacobs, Some Trash Asshole, and DeVonta Smith each eclipsed 20 FP. Teeny Pollard barely missed 20. Hockenson remains TE1 on the year, and Cameron’s IDP luck continues to thrive. Half of Sean’s points came from Hurts, Hunter, and Henry. Not a great sign for Sean but a solid indication of who’s worth trading for if Sean does indeed bow out.
Bobby Time 155 – K-Bop 133
If this week were a melee, Kennedy would have edged out Sean by 0.71 for the final win. He crushes Coleman and puts himself in the top five heading into the final two games. Kennedy has a 60-FP cushion over anyone he might tie for sixth with, so he’s one win away from locking in a playoff spot. CJ Stroud is now sixth in QB scoring, just four points behind Herbert, 10 behind Mahomes, and 16 behind Dak for third. The rest of the team was relatively tepid this week, but when you have stars like Adams, Kelce, Etienne, and Ekeler, tepid still gets you ten points. I’m not afraid of Kennedy’s team; it’s not much to look at even with those names just mentioned, but obviously he’s dropping 150 almost every week in a league where the only 10-win team has scored 135 or fewer in three of the last four weeks (we ignore that 190 in between, of course).
Coleman is toast, but you can still scrape the black off this team and get yourself a playoff player. Olave will probably miss this week with a concussion, but damn, what a first half he had before getting hurt. Rhamondre’s last three games: 25, 16, 23. This week, Deebo had seven catches, four rushes, and a pass attempt, good for 20 FP on the week. Kittle’s a name. Mostert continues to be huge. Scavenge!
Coleman has to keep Rashee Rice regardless of what he’s offered. Rice is as good a late keeper as there is, and no one is going to offer the 3rd+ it will take to match his 2024 value. So if I’m Coleman, I’m holding onto two early options (probably Deebo and Kittle) and two late options (Purdy and Rice). But a good offer could convince me to punt the earlies and just keep Purdy and Rice. Coleman can hunker down and compete for the number one pick, which I think might be the best way to compete versus getting an extra third or whatever. Don’t sleep on the field-tilting power of drafting McCaffrey or his 2024 equivalent. I would rather have McCaffrey and nothing than the sixth overall pick and a mystery third-rounder. But hedge if you wanna hedge. Winning three playoff games is hard.
Here’s a reminder of the standings:
Playoff teams
10-2 Evan
8-4 Cameron
7-5 Doak
7-5 Sean
6-6 Kennedy
6-6 Shelby
Playoff fringe
6-6 Corey
5-7 Oliver
5-7 Brian
5-7 Max
Eliminated
4-8 Spencer
3-9 Coleman
And the points:
1907.39 Doak
1804.98 Kennedy
1781.86 Evan
1778.81 Cameron
1745.79 Sean
1721.99 Oliver
1688.48 Spencer
1644.74 Brian
1637.44 Max
1634.65 Coleman
1600.80 Shelby
1563.20 Corey
Now, if you’re a nerd with some free time, you need to know about theffhub.com because they have some pretty cool resources. Here’s a taste:
If I had Cameron’s schedule, I would be 10-2.
If Corey had my schedule, he would be 2-10.
If Brian had Kennedy’s schedule, he would be 2-10.
Coleman’s worst record possible is the one he has now. Replace his schedule with any other team, and he is at least 4-8, with a ceiling of 8-4, if he swapped schedules with Evan.
Kennedy would be 10-2 with Shelby’s schedule.
Shelby is currently maxing out at 6-6, which she could only do on three schedules: hers, Evan’s, and Corey’s. If she had Brian, Cameron, Coleman, or Kennedy’s schedules, she would be 3-9.
Evan is also maxing out, which he could only do on his schedule. He would be 9-3 on Shelby’s schedule. He would be 4-8 on my schedule.
Other potential maxes: Cameron would be 10-2 on Coleman’s schedule. Oliver would be 8-4 on Spencer’s schedule. Spencer would be 9-3 on Evan’s schedule. Corey would be 7-5 on Evan’s schedule, which has me dead. Sean would be 9-3 on Corey’s schedule. Brian would be 8-4 on Evan’s schedule. Max would’ve been 7-5 on Sean or Evan’s schedules.
The other thing that you just have to go to the site to witness is Weekly Record vs All Teams, which is pretty self explanatory but as an example in weeks where I led the league in points, I would be 11-0 versus the league for that week. I did this three times. So did Evan. Kennedy did it twice. Cameron, Oliver, Max, and Corey each did it once.
What about 0-11, you ask? I did that once, as did Cameron, Spencer, and Coleman. Brian did it twice. Corey and Shelby each did it three times.
Here are our “standings” if we added up our Weekly Record vs All Teams:
91-41 Doak
82-50 Cameron
78-54 Kennedy
72-60 Evan
70-62 Sean
68-64 Oliver
63-69 Spencer
57-75 Coleman
56-76 Max
56-76 Corey
53-79 Brian
46-86 Shelby
Why, yes, I AM trying to find as many ways as possible to illustrate that I should be winning this league. What’s giving me away?
And here’s total playoff odds based on 10,000 simulations using average points and standard deviation. (theffhub.com also gives each team’s odds for every single standings spot, for example, Cameron having a zero-percent chance to finish 6th or worse and Coleman having a zero-percent chance to finish 9th or better.)
100 Evan and Cameron
99% Doak and Sean
91% Kennedy
44% Shelby
34% Oliver
14% Corey
11% Max
6.5% Brian
0.0% Spencer and Coleman
So if it feels like it’s Shelby vs. Oliver for that final spot, that lines up with the data. The issue with this data as it applies to our league is that it does not take the Week 14 melee into account. Okay fuck it. What I’m going to is pit the likely melee winners against the likely losers and see how that changes the odds.
...
All right, all hell broke loose because I ranked us by scoring and pitted top seeds vs. bottoms, and suddenly, I assume by virtue of playing Oliver two more times, Spencer has a chance to make the playoffs. Let’s start with that highly unlikely (3%) scenario:
Basically Spencer needs to win out, first and foremost. He then needs Corey and Shelby to lose their remaining games, and he needs Brian and Max to lose at least one apiece, assuming he maintains his points lead (44 over Brian, 51 over Max, 88 over Shelby, 125 over Corey) over everyone but Oliver (-33). If Spencer can usurp Oliver’s points lead, i.e., score 33 more points than Oliver over two weeks, he can withstand Oliver winning during the melee. If Oliver loses the melee, that last detail is moot. Spencer has about the same chance of making the playoffs as he does finishing dead last.
Brian allegedly has an 8% chance of making the playoffs, and he can finish as high a the 5-seed.
In order to make the 5-seed, he needs to win twice, and he needs Kennedy to lose twice, and he needs Corey, Shelby, Oliver, Spencer, and Max to lose at least once. The 6-seed is easier, but it still requires all those teams (minus Kennedy) to lose once and for Brian to win once. Ideally, Brian beats Kennedy, but what the computer doesn’t know is that Brian’s playing Week 13 without Josh Allen. And if he loses to Kennedy, he’s definitely playing Week 14 without Josh Allen. So let’s say Brian loses, just to chop the scenarios down a bit. If Brian loses to Kennedy in Week 13, he needs a melee win in Week 14, AND he needs Corey, Shelby, and Oliver to lose out (assuming he can’t outscore Oliver by 70 over these two weeks), AND he still needs Max to lose once, AND if Max only loses once, Brian needs to maintain his points-lead over Max (currently just +7).
Max has an 11% chance to make the playoffs, and he can finish as high as the 5-seed. His odds are higher because he has a better chance of beating Shelby than Brian does of beating Kennedy, and their odds in the melee are about equal. But Max needs the same amount of help as Brian. The difference is that Max needs to win this week or he’s out. Because if he loses to Shelby, then Shelby and Kennedy are guaranteed to finish ahead of him in the standings—along with the current top four, who we are treating as being IN, though we should look at the 0.1% scenario where Sean is out:
Okay first of all, the chance is higher than the reported 0.09% because that calculation doesn’t allow for the possibility that Oliver overcomes his 24-point deficit to Sean in two weeks. 24 FP in two weeks is nothing. It’s one more point from each position. Oliver outscored Sean by 25 this week alone. So let’s take those two things into consideration.
Sean can miss the playoffs.First, he must lose both games. Then, either Corey or Shelby must win out, and Kennedy must win once (he’s +160 FP on Sean). Then, Oliver must win out and outscore Sean by 24. OR Corey and Shelby both win out. Then, Kennedy must win once. OR Corey, Shelby, and Oliver win out, AND Oliver outscores Sean by 24. Definitely more than 0.09% is all I’m saying.
So what I’m saying is that, if I’m Sean, I want to get something out of this season win or lose, so if I’m trailing to Cameron and Shelby, Corey, and Oliver are winning, I might pull that rip cord and see what I can get for Hurts, Henry, Hunter, whoever. BUT there’s also merit to the antiquated ideal of drafting a team, playing out the season, and heading into next season with a normal, ordinary, straight line of draft picks, without any mess. Sean is likelier to finish 2nd than he is to miss the playoffs or even finish 6th.
The data says I can’t miss the playoffs, but that’s not true. I can miss the playoffs if I lose out AND Sean wins once AND Kennedy, Shelby, and Corey win out. There is probably a >0 chance that Kennedy can catch me in points, which means he’d only have to win once, but that would also mean outscoring me by an average of 50 points per week.
The wrinkle here is that I haven’t decided how to navigate Week 13. My Ravens are on bye, leaving my QB, K, and LB spots empty. Myles Garrett might be hurt, creating a fourth empty spots. I am fine trading/dropping Diontae to get a QB, but I’m slightly attached to all my other players, so I could be rocking a nine-man lineup if I don’t make some other arrangements, in which case Corey winning out and Kennedy catching me in points become much more realistic outcomes.
Here are some other scenarios:
1-seed
Evan clinches with a win or Cam loss either of the next two weeks.
Cam clinches if and only if he wins twice, Evan loses twice, and he has a +4 point-differential over Evan in these two weeks.
No one else has a shot.
2-seed
Cam clinches with two wins. Evan’s farthest possible fall stops here.
Sean, Kennedy, and I are the only other teams in the running. Kennedy has just an itty-bitty chance: Cam and I lose twice, Sean loses once (which means specifically that Sean beats Cam this week and then loses in the melee), and Kennedy wins twice. Sean’s chance also relies on his beating Cameron.
My guess is the 2-seed goes to whoever has nine wins, probably Cameron. If no one has nine wins, then I guess I will take the 2-seed, if I must.
So the three teams we really don’t know about are Shelby, Corey, and Oliver.
Shelby was one loss away from being done, specifically because of who would do the winning, but now she’s got a few ways to get in at 7-7 and would be a virtual lock at 8-6. We’ll know more after this week. Oh, Shelby also has a narrow path to the 3-seed, mostly reliant on her winning twice while Sean and I lose out and Kennedy loses at least once.
Corey… Corey, Corey, Corey. It’s hard to believe it’s only a three-game losing streak. Even harder to believe is that you’re still in the mix for the 3-seed. Pretty similar to Shelby’s path. You need Kennedy and Shelby to lose once apiece, and you need Sean and I to lose out. Corey’s path to making the playoffs is not at all similar to Shelby’s, a solid 30% lower chance of happening, reliant almost entirely on winning this week against me, while hoping Shelby, Brian, and Kennedy all lose, only Kennedy and Brian can’t both lose, so you’re mostly hoping Shelby loses, and I don’t really see that as a net gain if you end up winning, so probably just fold, trade off your best players before this weekend, is probably the wise move, if you ask me my, y’know, unbiased opinion on this one.
Oliver refuses to quit, and it’s beautiful. If you just look at Oliver against the teams surrounding him in the standings, he has the points. If he wins, he’s almost definitely in. The only thing that can stop him is two wins from Shelby or Corey (or both, but please). Kennedy losing twice would be nice, but that’s even less realistic. What’s interesting about Oliver’s season is that logically he doesn’t deserve to win: he made bad trades last year which put him at a disadvantage to start this year. But karmically, he’s either neutral or deserves to win. He had good intentions, and he didn’t hurt anyone. The Quixotic fool nature of his decisions doesn’t command wins, but it does portend them. There would be nothing more Mortydome than Oliver winning despite being written off multiple times, even by himself, losing the amount of games he decided in advance would be the high-water mark, and just continuing to tread anyway. If we go back to talking about deserving, he definitely deserves it more for grinding it out with his weird roster than I do for buying a shiny, pretty one.
Week 13 clinch scenarios:
Evan clinches 1-seed if:
Evan wins OR
Cameron loses
Cameron clinches 2-seed (minimum) if:
Cameron wins OR
Doak loses
Doak clinches playoff berth if:
Doak wins (also clinch 4-seed, minimum) OR
Shelby loses OR Kennedy loses
Sean clinches playoff berth if he wins AND:
Corey loses OR Kennedy loses
Kennedy clinches playoff berth if:
Kennedy wins AND Oliver loses AND
Corey loses OR Shelby loses
Shelby can’t clinch or be eliminated.
Corey is all but eliminated if he loses AND Shelby wins AND Kennedy wins.
Oliver is eliminated if he loses AND either Corey or Shelby win.
Brian is eliminated if he loses AND Oliver wins.
Max is eliminated if he loses. Spencer is eliminated if he loses.
Coleman is on a beach somewhere.
Players who should be traded:
Josh Allen (got ‘im)
Justin Herbert
Jonathan Taylor*
Najee Harris
Saquon Barkley
Justin Jefferson
Keenan Allen (got ‘im)
Stefon Diggs (got ‘im)
Chris Olave
Cooper Kupp?
Ja’Marr Chase
Foye Oluokun
If shit goes sideways for Sean, add Hurts, Henry, and Hunter to the pile. If Oliver is eliminated, Mahomes and Mixon should move, too.
Players who should NOT be traded:
Kyler Murray
Justin Fields
Kyren Williams
Ken Walker
Jaylen Warren
Tank Dell
Garrett Wilson
Jaylen Waddle
Puka Nacua
Rashee Rice
Sam LaPorta
Trey McBride
Shelby vs. Max
aka The Shelby’s Red Carpet Bowl
The gist is bye week hell: Shelby is without Addison, DJ Moore, and Patrick Queen (averaging 10 per game since she traded for him). Addison’s hit the rookie wall, but Moore is hot. In the aggregate, she probably loses 30 FP to the bye. Max is without Fields, Barkley, Gus, and Bass, who are all up and down but offer more upside than whoever he gets to replace them. Right now Max’s bench is a QB, RB, TE, and three IDPs. Simply put: not a competitive build. Shelby feels like the favorite because she has Dak, but Max is starting Kamara, DK, Pittman, and LaPorta against Rachaad White, Tutu Atwell, and who knows what else. Maybe Shelby spends her #1 waiver on Hopkins. A week after losing by 30 to the same opponent, this is Max’s game to lose.
Prediction: Max loses this game. Shelby maybe trades some middle-low picks to at least get a flex or whatever because making the playoffs is a legitimate shot at a championship no matter what projections say.
Kennedy vs. Brian
aka The Opportunism Bowl
Brian didn’t have Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs this week anyway, which I’m sure factored into Kennedy’s decision to make this his “rivalry” game. Brian is way on the outside looking in on the playoffs, so he figured if he’s going to be without Allen and Diggs with his season on the line, why not be without Allen and Diggs altogether. Obviously I respect the decision. But even if I weren’t the one benefitting, I think Brian had to make this move. If Allen and Diggs weren’t on bye, fight till the bitter end. But I watch Shelby win with Dak and the island of misfit toys, and I think there are worse things than “trying” to make the playoffs without your best players.
Brian added a fun wrinkle by choosing Bryce Young to be his QB. First, we get a Young-Stroud matchup, which, hell, this might be the only year that’s anything. Second, the Panthers fired their offensive staff and have, I think, a solid interim in Jim Caldwell running things, having enough experience to at least make football fun for Young. Third, the Bucs are a great matchup right now. Well, assuming Lavonte is out again. No one else can call the defense on the field. No one has ever had to. I truly have no idea whether he’ll play, but if he doesn’t, and the Panthers install some schemes they haven’t run all year, they can catch the Bucs sleeping, good enough to get Young above 20 FP and give Brian a puncher’s chance.
CJ Stroud has four straight games of over 300 yards with ten total TDs in that span. He rushed for 47 yards last week, more than double his previous high. It’s all coming together, and the only problem is that it’s all coming together for Denver’s defense, too. And Denver’s offense likes to play ball control to keep Russ from having to be a hero. Ipso facto, Stroud won’t throw the ball as often as he has for the past four weeks. That said, I don’t know that it matters. Tank Dell appears to be unguardable, at least he does so often enough to rack up 100 yards—which he would have done last week if not for an unprecedented penalty on “cheat” motion that hasn’t been called all year. That should be enough to get the Texans in or around the end zone and allow Stroud to find one of his other sure-handed receivers. What’s more likely to happen is that if the Texans get near the goal line, they use this game to try and get Dameon Pierce’s confidence back. They need his power. Denver is garbage against the run, and most of their success has come via turnovers, which, limiting turnovers is one of Stroud’s strengths.
Wow, way too many words on that topic. The point is Young-Stroud should be tight, potentially even break Young’s way.
The Jonathan Taylor news was a backbreaker. Without him, Brian has no rock, no foundation. He’d hope it would be Cooper Kupp, but I guess Kupp is playing hurt now, and playing poorly to boot. Brian really didn’t want to be forced to start a Panther RB against the Bucs this week. That’s not where teams take advantage of the Bucs. But he must! Well, maybe. I think there are free agents I’d start over him: Dotson, Hopkins, Allgeier maybe—no, you know what: I would stack Young with rookie Jonathan Mingo, I mean if I’m playing Panthers anyway. But diversifying to get the passing TDs and the rushing TDs has merit.
Kennedy traded for Adam Thielen, and then the Panthers fired the guys responsible for hypertargeting Adam Thielen. So what’s kind of crazy is that the Panthers fired three of their to four offensive coaches but kept Thomas Brown, the guy Reich let borrow playcalling duties for two weeks, and Brown comes from the McVay tree. If we see McVay concepts, Thielen is probably still the Kupp.
Kennedy’s gotta squeeze Zack Moss in this lineup, right? I don’t know. Maybe not. I thought Moss had been lights out without Taylor, but it seems like he was just an ordinary good starter outside of two spike weeks early on, the spikiest coming against the Titans, who Moss faces again this week. Oh man, I wrote this before Kennedy updated his lineup, and I gotta tell ya: David Montgomery was not one of the two RBs I considered benching for Moss. I would have benched Ekeler to avoid Belichick because my football software froze in 2019 and I can’t figure out how to update it.
The truth is: it doesn’t really matter what Kennedy does this week. Brian has mostly bad players, and his good players are in bad matchups. Jerome Ford continues to cede short-distance work to Some Trash Asshole, and Jaylen Warren is doing the same with Najee. Brian’s projection of 130 FP seems about right, and Kennedy’s lowest score this year was 127.
Prediction: Kennedy wins but barely. Brian sells Kupp for a 5th or worse. I think the only players he hold onto are Warren and Andrews. And he keeps that Bryce Young lotto ticket, which is a good call.
Oliver vs. Spencer
aka The RV Psychosis Bowl
I’m sure Oliver was hoping Spencer would have sold off some starters by now. Oliver still has a chance to do the hilarious and buy Spencer’s starters himself. It’s not a bad strategy. Oliver needs two wins to get in, and the only thing that would keep him out is two wins for Shelby (or Corey, sure), which is pretty unlikely with a melee finale. If every week were a melee, Shelby would have three wins. So basically a 25% chance of winning next week, while Oliver has back-to-back would-be melee wins and six total, giving him a 50% chance at a win next week, which only goes up if he buys a better team. Without making that move, Oliver really doesn’t have an advantage at all this week. Spencer had him dead to rights for 80% of the matchup last week, and Oliver’s matchups this week are horrible. Oliver should probably be spending his time shopping players rather than shopping for players. But I get it: he has Mahomes. If you have Mahomes, you have a shot against anyone. Spencer, a melee, a playoff team, whoever. So if you insist on being a buyer and staying in the chase, I think your focus has to be on winning this week. For the record, I think you’re both being idiots.
As far as the actual matchup, Spencer’s success relies mostly on the Jags against the Bengals. NFL teams don’t play like college teams, especially not as the season wears on. If a team can get a win and get out of there without putting much at risk or much on tape, they’re fine playing a boring game. The Bengals could not move the ball against the Steelers. Their biggest gains came on tipped passes caught and advanced by Ja’Marr Chase. The Jags are not as good as the Steelers on defense, and they are better on offense, granted they lack the element of surprise the Steelers were able to employ last week. I think once the Jags get to 14 points, they’re going to put it in cruise control, meaning yeah Trevor, Kirk, and Ridley will get 40-ish points combined, but the ceiling is probably 50-ish. Tank Dell didn’t practice yesterday but should play against Denver, but as he emerges as their best receiver, the likelihood goes up that he’ll be shadowed by Pat Surtain, one of just a handful of players who can shut Tank down. Javonte’s got a bad matchup, but it’s better than his last two. Ja’Marr Chase is essentially Garrett-Wilson-plus for the rest of the year. Spencer’s top non-QB this week could easily be Pat Freiermuth if he continues to see ten targets per game. On defense, it’s Oluokun and Bland and not much else, and Bland is just going to keep drawing targets. He has allowed more yards than either of the other Cowboys’ starting corners this year. This is great for fantasy because it means more tackles and more opportunities for PBUs and INTs.
(While I’m on advanced stats for DBs, any guesses on which Buc is the literal worst pass defender in the league, allowing a perfect passer rating, including 29 catches on 30 targets? Of course it’s Ryan Neal!)
Oliver has to dump Quincy Williams. The magic is gone. Dude has one double-digit game in the last four weeks. Trade for Oluokun. If Mahomes and Pacheco don’t combine for 50 again, if one of Oliver’s IDPs doesn’t drop 20 again, I don’t see how he manages more than 130-140 FP this week. Kyren Williams’ pattern so far is 30 points, 7 points, 30 points, 7 points. He just scored 40, so maybe… 12 points? I would start DeAndre Hopkins against the same defense Mike Evans just scored two TDs against, bench Mixon, trade Mixon.
Prediction: Spencer wins, he and Oliver both sell out for embarrassingly low returns Monday evening.
Evan vs. Coleman
aka The Worst Matchup Ever Grudge Match
In Week 9, these two teams faced off and combined for 196 FP, granted it was the 49ers and Lions bye weeks, which took five great starters, including a QB, out of that game. For all the bye week hell everyone else is in, these two have, combined, one player (OBJ) on bye, which is great because Coleman needs that push to finally get Rashee Rice in the lineup. The 49ers-Eagles game has its fingerprints all over this matchup: Evan starts Swift, Brown, Bosa, and Elliot. Coleman starts Purdy, Deebo, Kittle, and Reddick.
Evan’s major advantage is Tua playing against the ‘Ders, GRANTED it’s the Ders’ first game without Jack Del Rio calling the defense, meaning Ron Rivera will take over, meaning if Ron Rivera cares at all about having a job next year (debatable), he needs to allow fewer than 30 points to the Dolphins’ offense. The weather will help. It should rain during this game, which I imagine would be awful for an offense whose whole thing is speed.
Coleman’s advantage is every other matchup. Rhamondre versus a trash run D, Olave versus a Lions D that’s forgetting how to play, Mostert in that rain game (though the rain would favor Jeff Wilson more) and Rashee Rice national breakout spotlight on Sunday Night Football. I like Evan’s IDPs more, so that’s my tiebreaker.
Prediction: Evan wins, trades for a QB (Josh Allen is available at the right price mwahahaha); Coleman gets a nice pair of picks for Olave and Kittle.
Doak vs. Corey
aka The If Seminoles Actually Fought Gators, the Gators Wouldn’t Stand a Chance I Mean Look at Them What an Inane Design for a Living Thing How Can You Even Call Those Things Legs Bowl
At the risk of jinxing myself into oblivion, I just don’t think this is a competitive matchup. My only concern as I type this out Thursday morning is that I have three players at risk of not playing and no real recourse to replace them in my lineup. I’m currently two players over the roster limit, while I plan to drop three players after this week, I orchestrated this whole thing under the assumption that only Myles Garrett was at risk of missing. Sigh. But even if I’m starting nine players, I feel fine about those nine players versus whatever 12 Corey cobbles together.
Baker Mayfield on the bad ankle doesn’t worry me at all. Mike Evans outscored him last week, Mike Evans will outscore him this week. Najee Harris will probably be awesome, but Kenny Pickett has gone three weeks without throwing a TD, has gone eight weeks without a 2-TD game, and Arizona’s defense is so, so bad and predictable that I am confident this is a Pickett week. THE Pickett week. Pickett is also playing on a bad ankle, so I’m bracing for 10 FP. Tyler Lockett goes against an elite secondary, Corey refuses to take Devin Singletary seriously, Kyle Pitts is on the bench again… the only players that worry me are Waddle and McLaurin, but they’re a couple of burners playing in the rain, so who gives a shit.
That said, I’m ready to lose. I’ve done all I can, and no amount of pressure I build internally can do me any good. Don’t get me wrong: I’m down to trade more; I just don’t think it will get me anywhere.
But so among the nine players who are likely to play, three of them are CMC, Bijan, and Gibbs, none of whom have good matchups, but their skill sets are so complete and their offensive coordinators are so smart that the matchups don’t matter.
Prediction: I win by, like, a lot. Corey sells Jefferson for a 3rd, Najee for a 5th—no, you know what: Corey keeps them both purely to avoid finishing in last place (though it’s extremely likely that even if Corey and Shelby both miss the playoffs, they get the two bye weeks and avoid the last-place game by default).
Cameron vs. Sean
aka The Clash of Clones Bowl, co-presented by Alphabet and Meta
They’re the same, but they’re opposite. They are both more or less surviving on IDP luck every week, but at least in Cameron’s case they are good players we’ve heard of, guys who’ve been short-listed for awards and whatever. Sean’s doing it with guys who, fine, played in the Super Bowl last year, but were not in the best laid plans to start in that Super Bowl. It’s fine; they’re legit. I’m just salty about the way he arrived at them. I don’t have that kind of IDP luck, and I’m jealous. Moving on.
Sean has nothing but QB, Cameron has everything but QB, but Sean has the borderline best QB and Cameron is praying for 20 FP every week. They both have high-scoring RBs, but Cameron’s are finesse and Sean’s are power. As a result, Sean’s rely on positive gamescript, Cam’s rely on negative, yet they often get the opposite. Cameron has a significant advantage at WR, but Sean’s crew of Puka, Hollywood, and Amari Cooper (caveat: with Joe Flacco) get pretty much the same number of targets; it’s just that Cameron is rolling like a regular six-sided die with those targets and Sean is rolling a D-20.
Both of these teams are up against significant bye-week deficiencies: Cameron is without Jacobs, Hockenson, and Crosby; Sean is without Hunter and Edwards. Replacing two high-scoring IDPs sucks because you could end up with a couple of 2s, but Cameron has the worse end of this.
Prediction: Sean wins, Sean buys a WR (probably Olave), Cameron buys QB, probably Mahomes. But if Oliver and Shelby and Sean win, Cameron’s a little fucked in the QB chase. At that point, the best QB available would be Justin Herbert. Beyond that, you’d be trying to make a combination. Lawrence has a good Week 16 and 17, but his Week 15 is Baltimore. Cameron can ride Goff into the playoffs, if only because Goff’s entire playoff schedule is inside. The matchups are bad, but Goff has squeezed 15 FP out every matchup this year except for his game @BAL. I will say, Brock Purdy has amazing matchups Weeks 15 and 17, if Coleman is willing to move him.
All I’ll say is, it really doesn’t matter what you trade away or what you trade for as long as you have a plan or at least a vision. It’s a made-up game. If you’re having a bad time with it, just imagine something different is happening. Imagine you’re auditioning Bryce Young for your late keeper role. Imagine that acquiring as many picks as possible sets you up for a championship run. Imagine that dumping as many picks as possible sets you up for a championship run. Whatever you do, just play with us. Trade, don’t trade. But get in the mix. Be a part of the game. Enjoy your weekend. If you check in on my matchup, wear sunglasses.
