The Bucs are better off losing games now. I don’t want to keep Baker Mayfield. I don’t want a short QB getting multiple passes batted every game. We did the Jeff Garcia thing already. I want Michael Penix or Jayden Daniels. I don’t want to pay a QB. I want to pay Mike Evans. I want to be able to pay defensive depth pieces more than $700K per year. I want to blow up the defense except for Vea, Kancey, David, and Winfield. I want a center who actually plays center. I watched the Ravens move on from Ryan Jensen and try to start a guard at center for a couple years. They eventually drafted a center in the first round. That’s how important a center is. That’s how desperate a team gets after one or two years of not having a center. I’m fine with Hainsey as a starting guard. I want a gooood fucking center.
Man, watching that first episode of the Dolphins in-season Hard Knocks, I want Mike McDaniel to be our head coach. I love him so much.
Killers 136 – 126 Jags
This is tanking at its best. Not only is Shelby stacking early picks for next year, but she’s also climbing toward eighth place, which would grant her a pick ladder bye week, which would guarantee her a top-four pick in next year’s draft. The best part is she’s not doing it on purpose! She’s not starting Zeke and Josh Kelley and Latavius and Tutu with the intention of scoring a lot of points. I don’t know WHY she’s not trying to score points, but she clearly punted this week.
Spencer fumbled that punt through the back of his own endzone. Trevor Lawrence 37, James Cook 20, Calvin Ridley 29. Was Spencer that loaded even at 4-6 coming into this week? He started Sam Howell, Aaron Jones, Christian Kirk, and Javonte Williams. So no. Not at all loaded. And I understand Lawrence, Cook, and Ridley have had poor showings, but you lost sight of the big picture. In a 14-game regular season, you should play as if a 7-7 record only gets you into a tie for the final playoff spot. You can get lucky and need less, but I’m talking about having a strategy. If you need to be 7-7, and even then you need a tiebreaker, and you have a six in the loss column, you need to start playing every game like it’s an elimination game.
I say this fully understanding that Shelby just leap-frogged Spencer by playing whatever garbage was on her bench. BUT she benched Josh Kelley for a free-agent RB. That’s a positive play (which is kind of a given when the challenge is score more points than Josh Kelley, but still).
I’m hoping this is the week that hammers in some version this lesson for Spencer for the rest of his career: the reason you play your best players has nothing to do with winning; it’s entirely an avoidance of this feeling right now, of losing with your best players on your bench. We’ve all been there.
Piss Master 164 – 152 Tag-Man
Max led the week in scoring. Oliver was third. But as with Spe, at 4-6, Oliver needs to look at this as an elimination game, bow his head, and move on to next season. I think the loss would hurt less if Saquon Barkley hadn’t had 30 FP, his highest output this year, as good as it was because he caught TWO TDs from TD himself, Tommy DeVito. Unreal.
Mahomes is having a rough month, so Oliver is having a rough month. After scoring 50 FP in Week 7, Mahomes has scored 6 (Oliver lost), 18 (Oliver lost), had his bye (Oliver lost), and just scored 24 (Oliver lost). Oliver was 4-3; now he’s 4-7. He’s got the points tiebreaker over all the bottom-half teams, though, so it’s not really over. It’s over if he wants it to be. It’s reasonable to want to get off this ride. If Mahomes is anything less than great, you start to look closer at the rest of Oliver’s supposed best players: Mixon, Aiyuk, Godwin, Pacheco… Nico, Sutton… Jake Ferguson. Aiyuk is the best of them at WR11. Your best player can’t be ranked outside the top 10 at his position, unless everyone you’re starting is top-20 and consistent with it. Mixon is 14, Pacheco 24, Nico 16 (but A LOT of that was Weeks 2 and 4), Sutton 17 (so many TDs, so hard to trust), and Jayden Reed is 22. Godwin is 40 among WRs. So yeah this could be a playoff team, but it’s a moneyball playoff team, virtually impossible for them to score the 150 per week necessary to rattle off three straight wins.
Max has the record of a potential playoff team, but this week notwithstanding, he doesn’t have the points. He doesn’t have the QB. Most of the time, he doesn’t have the IDPs. But he has five or six guys on offense who are playing so well right now that he can’t be counted out of the championship mix. If he trades for a QB and upgrade his DB spot with a free agent, I would be nervous to face a team with some combination of Saquon, Keenan, DK, Pittman, Thielen, LaPorta, and Gus Edwards. A good trade for Max would be to go to the guy you just beat and get Mahomes and Hutch for a 2nd Round pick.
YDPWM 121 – 88 Chasin a Win
The third and fourth place teams were the two lowest scoring teams of the week, and they stay in third and fourth, just swapping spots. (I lied: I’m fourth now, and Corey is fifth.) Corey’s got his excuses: Burrow went down in the second quarter, tanking Boyd with him; while Fred Warner had 21 FP, Corey’s other three IDPs combined for 8; Najee Harris is worse than Devin Singletary now… Sean has one major excuse: his team is pretty bad! 33% of his lineup is Cardinals! His best non-Hurts players are two guys he claimed on waivers in Week 1 and some random LB flier who’s now putting up Kuechly numbers. When I look at our standings, the great lie is that Corey and Sean are slotted ahead of Kennedy and me.
(Also from now on this game is called the “Boy Meets World Bowl”)
Lamb 134 – 130 Tony
I bet Oliver would have loved to deliver the 150 – 130 smackdown on either of these teams. I know I would have. I hope Evan is enjoying these paper Ws. That 9-2 record has a 7-4 aura. I’m still terrified I might have to play him in the playoffs. Scariest team in the league? If he gets a good QB who doesn’t have literally the worst playoff schedule, easily the scariest team. When you look at it through the lens of things that won’t normally happen, it’s all the low scores. It’s AJ Brown at 1.8, Jake Elliot with no FGs, Germaine Pratt with 2.5… Most of his players flirting with 15-20 FP is the norm. And every AJ Brown dud is followed by an absolute scorcher. Sucks to be whoever plays Evan next week.
Cameron got everything he needed on Monday night, except for one extra yard that DeVonta Smith needed to reach the end zone on that bomb from Hurts. But Cameron lost because he believed in De’Von Achane. There are timelines where Cameron wins on that belief, but reasonably, RBs don’t fare well their first game back from IR, especially RBs who weigh 190 and are on, like, their fourth injury of their rookie season. Darrell Henderson was the safe play, and had Cameron played him, he would have won by five.
F-Dup 157 – 144 K-Bop
My team continues to be forced to play within an inch of their lives every week. No, the final score doesn’t reflect it, but the projections, combined with the Haason Reddick sack on the second play of the game Monday night… What I was anticipating all night was a Deebo-esque crossing route to Rashee Rice where Rice would break a tackle and go 60 yards for a score. The Chiefs threw him a screen in the red zone that he was one tackle away from scoring on. There were plenty of ways that Rice, Reddick, and Butker would combine for the 36 FP Coleman needed to take me down, and I’m just grateful we don’t live on that timeline. (What’s the proper preposition with timelines? Are we on them? In them? Through them? Where are we? Where is time? What axis comes after Z?)
And look, friends, I left points on the table. Zay Flowers scored a 60-yard TD called back on very questionable holding. That would have put me right around 180 FP. I’m not going to stretch and say anyone else should have done anything. But that play should have counted. I have read approximately four million tweets that agree. I’ve read them over and over again, chain-smoking under a bridge, in the pouring rain, every night since Thursday.
And I did it without Kamara, Bijan, or Taysom Hill. Fear me. (Please, o fantasy gods, let me win again despite my vile tongue.)
Bobby Time 151 – 129 Barton Time
(As in Clara, as in Brian’s lineup looks like a scene from a Civil War tent)
Here are the crucial stats: 1.7, 1.1, 2.3; those are the final scores of Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, and Mark Andrews. Just thinking in terms of season averages, you would expect those three to score 17, 10, and 11 respectively, and that’s arguably low-balling Kupp. Add those 33 missing points to Brian’s score, and he beats Kennedy by 13. Hell, just give Brian the 40-yd TD Kupp dropped, and Brian is within 10 of Kennedy here. And that’s with Jonathan Taylor on bye, who you could reasonably assume would have scored 10 more points than Khalil Herbert.
Kennedy has a Buckeye QB controversy brewing. Fields outscored Stroud today, and Fields has the rushing upside, but Stroud is playing his way into the MVP conversation. My usual advice is pick a starter and stick with him, and what Kennedy’s doing is right in line with that. Fields was the starter. Fields got hurt. Stroud took over as the starter. Stroud is the starter unless something drastic happens. I believe the only thing that would sway me from Stroud right now is a terrible game, maybe a terrible matchup, like Cleveland in Week 16, when Fields plays Arizona. But you gotta get to Week 16 to entertain that idea. Other than that, what we saw this week form Kennedy’s team is an extremely high floor. None of these players wowed this week, with the exception of Micah Parsons dry-scooping pre-workout. But all of them delivered, with the exception of Nick Folk, who plays the most replaceable, least predictable position. Kennedy fell to 4-6, and I wish I had offered him a first round pick for Adams and Kelce. I wish I’d done it just to keep him out of the playoffs.
Brian had a rough week, but it looks like Cooper Kupp might not miss a game. Andrews is out for the season. TE is the least replaceable position. Everyone has been scooped off waivers, to the point that Brian just flung a dart and hit Michael Mayer. Mayer is awesome, but the Raiders offense is not.
This is an update on rest-of-the-season rankings, predicting where I think people will finish the year.
12. Chasin a Win (6-5)
What this essentially is is predicting Corey will lose all of his games for the rest of the year. A Joe Burrow injury is that significant, especially for a team starting Tyler Boyd, too. Corey is starting three timeshare backs, and the best of them appears to be Devin Singletary. Corey’s best player is Justin Jefferson. His second-best player is either Jaylen Waddle or Tyler Lockett or Terry McLaurin, unless it’s also Singletary! It’s so, so over. Jefferson isn’t coming back until Week 14, at which point the trade deadline will be past. Basically you have to win either this week or next to justify keeping Jefferson past the deadline. And even then, you need to be sure you won’t get stuck in a tiebreaker at 7-7. Ugh, it’s time for playoff scenarios, isn’t it?
Okay, let’s look at remaining schedules, ranked by difficulty:
Evan: Corey, Coleman, melee
Doak: Brian, Corey, melee
Kennedy: Coleman, Brian, melee
Cam: Sean, Sean, melee
Oliver: Spencer, Spencer, melee
Max: Shelby, Shelby, melee
Shelby: Max, Max, melee
(to the tune of Ice, Ice, Baby as a tiebreaker)
Spencer: Oliver, Oliver, melee
Sean: Cam, Cam, melee
Coleman: Kennedy, Evan, melee
Corey: Evan, Doak, melee
Brian: Doak, Kennedy, melee
Corey has arguably the hardest schedule and doesn’t tend to score enough points to win a melee—wait, what’s CRAZY is that if every week had been a melee, Corey would be 5-6 despite scoring the second fewest points all year (just two points away from last place, mind you).
Fuck it. Get in, loser. We’re doing melee standings. These standings will determine my current guesses for Week 14 outcomes.
8-3 Doak 1711 FP
7-4 Kennedy 1649 FP
7-4 Cam 1596
6-5 Sean 1590
5-6 Evan 1649
5-6 Oliver 1541
5-6 Spencer 1520
5-6 Coleman 1500
5-6 Corey 1456
5-6 Shelby 1454
4-7 Max 1526
4-7 Brian 1485
I would have been undefeated the longest to start the season at 4-0 (I actually went 2-2), which would have beaten Kennedy’s 3-0 in reality. Shelby would have gone the longest without a win at 0-4, which happened anyway. And when I said Evam’s team had a 7-4 aura, I was being generous. I bet Brian and Max would not have believed you if you told them they’ve actually been lucky so far this year. I feel for Coleman, who I expected to be a playoff team and should be on the playoff fringe if not for a couple tough matchups.
So back to Corey, he’s lost two in a row, he’s going 0-3 to end the regular, and he’s going 0-2 in the postseason, for a total of seven consecutive losses to end the year. He’s going to be at the bottom of whatever kind of standings you want to make come season’s end.
11. Krombopulos Michael (3-8)
Not technically eliminated yet, but he’s ninth in scoring has to win one of Kennedy, Evan, melee. Kennedy and Evan are scoring 149 per game, and a melee win on average would be over 140. Coleman’s fresh off a 144 but averages just 136. I don’t think he bottoms out because even if he loses every game between now and Week 16, he gets to play Corey.
10. The Infirmary, Pt. 2 (5-6)
This is probably too low for how good Brian’s team still is. I personally am worried about a Diggs/Allen 80-spot each of the next two weeks, but I don’t see much else happening here. I’m obviously shitting my pants for the next 300-ish consecutive hours, but any reasonable person would look at our matchup and feel pretty good if they had my side of it. And yet typing those words has taken my anxiety one level deeper.
9. Piss Master (5-6)
He faces Shelby twice and a melee. This is where you want to be: on the fringe of the playoffs, needing two wins, facing the lowest scoring team in the league after she’s had a couple of boom weeks despite selling off her best players. It’s all primed to come crashing down. And yet, you rolled with the Perv, and you didn’t stop rolling with the Perv until the Perv rolled on out. So the karma burns don’t heal just because the iron’s been lifted. You have to eat this one and try again next year with decent human beings.
8. Jags (4-7)
Mostly user error here, yeah? Spencer’s in if he wins out, but he plays Oliver twice, and Oliver’s team is better. There’s something to be said for the Jags offense getting hot right when Spencer needs them, but their next three matchups are Houston, Cincinnati, Cleveland. Not terrible, but not the Titans. Last week’s loss feels like a backbreaker, and while it’s not the end, it’s not suddenly going to become unbroken. Still, I see him going 1-1 with Oliver.
7. Tag-Man (4-7)
He shouldn’t be in it if only because he didn’t have enough high draft picks. Kennedy’s clarification that we could trade the “rights” to keepers probably kept Oliver alive. He was able to spend that bonus pick on Joe Mixon, who has been maybe his best player, though it’s close with Aiyuk. But the reason I think Oliver’s team is better is that Mahomes has been so bad for so many weeks that it’s just time for him to be good again. His next game is against the Raiders. He's going to score 40 FP and deliver Oliver one win, delaying the fire sale yet another week!
6. Ghostface killers (5-6)
Yes this is a playoff prediction, and while I’m doing it mostly for the narrative, I also need this to emphasize just how not-out-of-it any team is right now. Even Coleman is not out of it. Coleman needs to score like 25 points per game above his average over three weeks and win all three weeks, but that means that every team above him is even more likely than that to make it. Shelby’s schedule is favorable: she gets an overachieving Piss Master twice. If she beats Max twice, she knocks him out, and by winning twice while Corey and Coleman and Brian lose twice and Spencer and Oliver split, Shelby vaults to the top of this garbage pile and takes the tile of Dumpsterella into the melee week, where she might not even need to win if neither Oliver nor Spencer do. Despite Max being ranked at 9th in this list, I would probably give him the second-best chance to make the playoffs out of this bunch. The only rub is this: if Oliver beats Spencer this week, Spencer sells off his best players and drops a second game to Oliver. But if Shelby beats Max, then Max sells. So what I’m guessing here, if you really math it out, is that Shelby and Oliver will win each two in a row, and since Shelby will have more ammo with which to trade back into playoff contention, she will be more likely to get a melee win than Oliver.
So not only is Oliver going to miss the playoffs; he’s going to trade away draft picks to do it.
5. teeny tiny tony (7-4)
Again, this isn’t a “what will the standings be” going into the playoffs thing. This is where we’ll end up after the playoffs are over. It’s about what you can do not just now but three weeks in a row to end the year. Cameron’s team is not very scary. Jared Goff inspires zero fear. Josh Jacobs is basically Jags-era Fournette right now. Cameron has one elite player, three great players, and not a whole lot else. He’s scored 130 in consecutive weeks, the IDP luck is running out, and every week somebody in your lineup disappears. You don’t even have a second flex player if Achane can’t stay healthy. BUT you’re a playoff team and there’s no point playing like the truth matters in fantasy football.
4. You Don’t Pay With Money (7-4)
The tiebreaker is QB play. Sean has also had significant IDP luck but also had a bunch of players disappear on him. I just think Jalen Hurts is good for 30 and that Sean has just enough cooking to win… oh my god, you know what? After Sean can Cameron play twice in a row these next two weeks, they’ll get a break with the melee, but then they are going to play AGAIN in the first round of the playoffs. So I guess what I’m saying is that Sean will win the playoff game? While acknowledging that Cameron has the better team but recognizing that it doesn’t matter. Either way, it’s one playoff win, not two, and certainly not three. Sean’s repeat dreams die by Week 16.
3. Bobby Time (5-6)
Predicting a 3-0 finish to the regular season and a playoff win or two. Officially I’m picking Evan or myself to beat Kennedy in Round 2, but I’m mostly just trying to puff my chest out and bark that I’m man enough to face Evan in this years’ playoffs. But Kennedy’s team is stacked and will be stacked even further when he brings in a better second WR. I’m not convinced Kelce can score more than 15 points in a single week. He’s just so slow on that injured ankle. He’s still probably TE1, and everything else on your team is amazing—just don’t look at the bench.
2. Lamb of SunGod (9-2)
Evan is going to trade for a QB but probably only if the price is right. Either Shelby or Oliver or Spencer is going to lose this week and make the trade. (Or Max if Evan’s down with Stafford, whose playoff schedule is a favorable WAS, NO, NYG—though the Week 14 matchup is probably a bye for Evan anyway.) If he makes that trade, maybe he goes all-in and makes a trade for Kittle. He wants that championship. He’s bitter about last year and won’t let his second chance slip away.
1. Pretty F’d Up Ooh La La (6-5)
And who says I’m done trading? I want a TE. I want a second WR. I’m willing to buy this championship. But do I need to? With actual RB depth (CMC, Bijan, Gibbs, Kamara), with Garrett and Watt, with Lamar at the top of it all, with Mike Evans doing 1,000 and 10 again, do I need to completely sell 2024 to take home that winning trophy? If I want to win both trophies in consecutive years, I do.
Evan vs. Corey
Evan just racking up free squares this season. Corey’s best players are Jaylen Waddle (@NYJ), Terry McLaurin (@DAL), and Tyler Lockett (vs. SF). That’s as bad as a group of matchups gets. Corey is benching Singletary again, which might be the right move, but wouldn’t you rather bet on Singletary staying hot than Najee Harris bouncing back. The Steelers are clearly down to disrupt everything they are doing on offense. Why go away from Jaylen Warren after a 175-yd game? Corey’s gotta cut Mafe now that he’s cooled off and go back to Aaron Donald, especially against the Cardinals’ interior.
Evan is making the tough choice to bench Tua against the Jets in favor of Dobbs at “home” (where he’s called home for three weeks, only one of which he actually played there) on a Monday night against Chicago. The Bears are dead last in sacking the opposing QB. I think it’ll be a good night for Dobbs. It doesn’t matter. AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra are going to carry this team with Swift and Breece combining for 20-30. Evan can be nervous about his IDPs, especially about throwing Quay Walker in for an injured Lavonte. The interesting thing about IDP scoring is that you actually do well when opposing teams target your area of the field and you allow catches but come up with the ensuing tackles. Evan shouldn’t be nervous about anything since Corey won’t score enough points for any of Evan’s lineup decisions to matter.
Prediction: Evan wins by 30
The Two Brothers Who Are Just Regular Brothers Bowl
Kennedy has 150 more FP than his brother this season, a full win’s worth. Kennedy’s just getting warmed up, but for being 3-8, Coleman’s still trotting out a pretty competitive team. The 49ers superstack is hitting, Chris Olave is benefitting from Jameis’ presence, Mostert is the healthiest Dolphins’ RB (though he’s pretty banged up), and Rashee Rice should be taking over the Chiefs’ #1 role any day now. Any day. But up against Kennedy, it’s an anything-you-can-do-I-can-do-better situation. I think Kennedy has a matchup advantage over Coleman in every single lineup spot? The kicker is that Niners-Hawks game basically always end 21-13, which doesn’t allow many points for Coleman’s superstack. If I were Kennedy, I would be generally nervous, but that would subside by the end of Thursday’s games, when the Niners’ scores are in the books, and you know the bulk of what you’re up against. If Purdy, Kittle, and Deebo combined for 60, you’re in trouble. Under 50 and you’re probably solid.
Prediction: Kennedy wins by 5-10
Doak vs. Brian
I am assuming I will win three straight games and in doing so earn a first-round bye for the playoffs, finishing second to Evan and laying the path to face him in the championship game. Looking at Brian’s lineup, I am unwavering to the point of circling back around to shitting my pants uncontrollably. Brian is pretending to bench Diggs and Taylor and Warren and Kupp, which definitely did the job of giving me false confidence. But the false confidence has fake-or-made itself into real confidence. I’m only afraid of Josh Allen, but if I score 150+ points, I don’t think Josh Allen can take me down.
Prediction: knees and elbows scratched to shreds
The next three matchups are awesome: each are the first of a doubleheader between teams with identical records. There is massive swing potential. There is also massive potential for these pairs to be tied again two weeks from now.
Spencer vs. Oliver
This is a playoff game. Whoever loses is eliminated. Whoever wins stays alive for one more week. In a playoff game between Lawrence and Mahomes, I’m taking Mahomes. But this matchup will come down to more minor details, specifically the flex options. Right now, I think they’re both making mistakes, and I think Oliver has the more difficult decisions to make. For Spencer, it’s basically Christian Kirk vs. Garrett Wilson, where I lean Wilson for upside’s sake. Kirk’s stats take a hit when Zay Jones plays because Zay Jones’ presence prevents the defense from doubling Calvin Ridley. Oliver’s choosing two among Jayden Reed, Nico Collins, Chris Godwin, and Rashid Shaheed. Without thinking too hard, I would start Reed and Shaheed. They make explosive plays and return punts, and I’m chasing those high ceilings. As much as that stuff appears to matter, we all know it’s going to come down to whether or not DaRon Bland scores another TD.
Prediction: Mahomes drops 40, Oliver wins
Cam vs. Sean
This is not a playoff game, but it is a game between two playoff teams. The first of three. It’s like a dress rehearsal. If I were Sean or Cameron, and I lost the first leg of this matchup, if the outlook of the matchup looked bad after Thursday, I would make whatever trade I needed in order to improve my worst spot. As much as I believe I will win three straight and beat out both of these teams for the 2-seed, the current standings actually imply that this doubleheader will decide the 2-seed and the bye week. Week 15, Jalen Hurts plays @SEA but his following two games are home vs. NYG and AZ. I’m not afraid of the Seahawks, but I wouldn’t mind skipping that matchup. Jared Goff doesn’t have a tough Week 15 matchup, but if Jared Goff is my QB, I definitely don’t turn down a free square when it’s available.
So what’s actually going to happen? For the most part, Sean has better matchups. Brian Robinson @DAL is the worst one, but Robinson is going to touch the ball so many times. Sean’s IDPs have been nuts and also have the matchup advantages. Cameron’s hopes to win rely on Goff being huge, Jacobs scoring TDs, and DeVonta Smith scoring all of Jalen Hurts’ TDs. Goff is likely to be huge. Jacobs is likely to get stuffed. Smith is likely to get the backseat as the Eagles grease that squeaky AJ Brown wheel.
Prediction: Sean wins, Cam trades for an RB
Shelby vs. Max
Likely the two-week battle for the 6-seed. Well, not likely. Likely, Corey is the 6-seed, but of course I don’t see it that way. I see either Shelby or Max sweeping this series. Max has the tougher matchups, specifically Barkley vs.NE and Keenan vs.BAL. DK vs.SF is not great either. If those guys are held in check (~10 FP), Max needs Stafford, LaPorta, Pittman, and Gus to step up. That’s not a reassuring list.
Shelby’s flex options are so much worse. I hope she fixes that, maybe with Khalil Shakir and Rondale Moore—though if you’re asking how those guys are different from Tutu Atwell, I don’t have a good answer—and I hope she replaces Cam Taylor-Britt in that DB spot. This is also the part of the note where I shit on Khalil Mack for being washed (iykyk).
Prediction: Dak drops 40, Shelby wins, Max sells
