I could have had a little more cushion if I’d started Taysom Hill at QB and Cole Kmet at TE. That’s how good the Ravens’ defense is. They beat the Seahawks by 30, didn’t even allow a TD, so Lamar got to rest for the fourth quarter, closing his day with 17 FP. I can’t even complain about Lamar. He’s had four 30-burgs, including a high of 44. He’s never been the reason I lost. In his four games under 25, I won two and got smoked by 30 in two.
I can complain about Bijan Robinson, more appropriately about Arthur Smith, but I did the Kyle Pitts thing last year. I should have known what I was getting myself into. A player’s talent is the most important thing, but sadly, situation matters. If Bijan is only getting the ball 10-15 times, and none of them at the goal line, then I should only expect 50 yards and a few first downs. He’s not underperforming; he’s being underused. And so I cry about it. A good, strong, healthy cry. A man’s cry.
Taysom Hill has a TD triple-double: 11 passing, 26 rushing, and 10 receiving for his career. The last player to record a TD triple-double was Frank Gifford, who retired in 1964. The closest active player is Derrick Henry, with three passing TDs. The closest player since 2000 was LaDainian Tomlinson, who threw seven TDs. I’m enjoying this much more than the Darren Waller experience, which is so over and so dead and has radicalized me against spending a single-digit draft pick on a TE. I will say, if Sam LaPorta weren’t a keeper, I would spend a high draft pick on him. Because I’m sick.
I feel for all the people who scored 140 in a loss because they weren’t playng Evan. Evan outscored his opponent, so he deserves the win, but man, what a blessing. Evan scored 109, but he would have won with 88. The fewest points I’ve needed to win this season: 130 (I scored 213 that week). Here’s everyone else:
Oliver: 125 (scored 112)
Kennedy: 123 (scored 129)*
Spencer: 121 (scored 159)
Sean: 115 (scored 146)
Max: 113 (scored 122)
Cam: 110 (scored 124)
Brian: 109 (scored 141)
Coleman: 109 (scored 87)
Corey: 106 (scored 123)
Shelby: 78 (scored 137)
*This happened in Week 2. Since then, Kennedy’s lowest points-against has been 152. Understand: Kennedy has needed at least 152 points to win in each of the last seven weeks. He is on a four-game skid where his points-against have been 152, 165, 190, and 175. After starting the year 4-1, he’s 4-5, his most recent loss coming despite him being top-3 in scoring. He has another loss where he was top-4.
We are finding out what happens when the Commissioner curses himself. I ranked myself #1 and picked myself to win the championship, and the fantasy gods tattooed a target on my back. I score the most points, but my opponent brings it every week. Here’s highest points in a loss:
Doak: 173 (Oliver)
Cam: 167 (Kennedy)
Max: 163 (Kennedy)
Kennedy: 159 (Sean)
Spencer: 151 (Cam)
Brian: 146 (Corey)
Corey: 141 (Shelby)
Oliver: 141 (Sean & Cam)*
Coleman: 139 (Max)
Sean: 131 (Brian)
Evan: 124 (Brian)
Shelby: 123 (Kennedy & Coleman)*
*In consecutive weeks! Brutal!
The lesson, besides Kennedy being a cold-blooded killer, is that my name isn’t in any of those parentheses, but I’m at the top. I also have losses where I scored 138, 139, and 147. Here is a list of most losses when scoring 135+:
Doak: 4
Kennedy: 3
Max: 3
Spencer: 3
Brian: 2
Oliver: 2
Cam: 2
Corey: 1
Coleman: 1
Evan: 0
Sean: 0
Shelby: 0
So Kennedy, Max, and Spencer feel my pain, for the most part. Kennedy especially feels my pain since we’ve both lost matchups where one of our players scored 50 FP. I’m not sure anyone else has accomplished that feat this season.
Sleeper has started keeping track of lineup accuracy. I’m not sure how meaningful that stat is or how they come to it. If Tyjae Spears outscores Joe Mixon one week, was Oliver inaccurate with his lineup? Anyway, here’s that list. Get in, loser: we’re doing lists.
Brian: 95.8
Corey: 95.1
Cameron: 91.2
Doak: 90.8
Max: 90.7
Spencer: 90.1
Kennedy: 89.5
Evan: 88.8
Coleman: 88.6
Oliver: 88.2
Sean: 87.7
Shelby: 86.9
Man, does that list reveal some truth. Brian and Corey are truly doing more with less by setting the right lineups, but also their benches suck. The stat is, by design, how much better your starters are than your bench. Brian and Corey are top-heavy. Shelby, Sean, and Oliver don’t have true starters for their flex spots. Coleman benched Raheem Mostert too many times. Evan’s backup QB outscored his starter like four weeks in a row. Cameron through Kennedy, I think we’re just normal. Like if nothing too weird happens, if you’re making mostly sound decisions, you should be between 89 and 91 in this category. With the amount of players we have—I’m not going to do the math—it’s gotta be near-impossible to go under 80.
But to argue another angle, or perhaps to retread on something rather than edit it, I think this number tracks your functional depth. Brian and Corey don’t have inspiring benches, but they’ve had to dip into their bench depth due to injuries, and those players have scored points in the lineup. It’s also nice having injured players on the bench scoring zeroes to bump up your “accuracy.”
Regression Matters
I beat Max by less than half a point. If he starts Pittman over Metcalf, he wins. If I start Devin White over Patrick Queen, I win regardless. I’m sure we thought about doing those things. Max was just a victim of my team being overdue to win more games. And though he got me on CMC’s bye week, I deserve a win without CMC for the week he scored 52 and I still lost. So now we’re square. I don’t deserve anything anymore. I have to score so many points, and I’m willing to make it happen. Cole Kmet over Bijan Robinson and I would have absolutely crushed. Dumb game. Gus Edwards outscored Lamar Jackson for the second straight game. Extremely dumb game.
WR Pedigree Matters
Oliver wins if he starts Jahan Dotson over Rashid Shaheed. There’s that lineup accuracy working against you. Mahomes let you down, but you had the points, and you had them from a first-round pick who’s been on a heater. You let yourself down. You suck. Just kidding. You did everything else right, which is why you had a chance. Waiting until Monday to add a Charger worked out. Bosa and Mack each had over 19 FP. Jake Ferguson was huge, again, as we all anticipated.
Cameron starting Darrell Henderson over DeVonta Smith was something. I get a little bit of the thought process, with the Rams needing to lean on the run because they can’t lean on Brett Rypien, but it was a little bit of galaxy brain that could have cost you a win if Oliver hadn’t blundered his flex again.
No Jag, No Bag
Sean got Spencer on a free-sqaure week. Spencer’s whole bench was on bye, and that includes Trevor, Ridley, Kirk, Javonte, McManus, and Oluokun. I’m pretty sure McManus and Oluokun are #1 at their positions. Sorry, McManus is #4. That’s like 30 points that Spencer had to replace with randos at tough-to-predict positions. Spencer had a better chance than the final score suggests. Bills-Bengals just didn’t go his way at all. If those guys had just hit their projections, this is a very close game. Sean’s IDP lemonade just gets sweeter every week. When TJ Edwards and Reed Blankenship combined for 30+ FP, I don’t know how any of us stand a chance. Sad to see Goedert get hurt, but he’ll be back for our playoffs. You’re fine. Cam Akers is done, so Mattison gets his bell-cow role back. You’re golden. And apparently TE is the most abundant position in free agency right now. Seemed like 40 TEs scored TDs this week. And you already have Trey McBride, and Kyler comes back this week. Golden.
Spencer is 3-6, but this is a good year to be 3-6. If Kennedy and I can’t figure out how to transmute points into wins, then a 6-8 team is going to make the playoffs (but then, that will probably be me or Kennedy).
Can’t Stop Josh
I really can’t believe that for the second year in a row, drafting Josh Allen in the middle of the first round is paying off. It helps A LOT that Jonathan Taylor fell to the middle of the second. I bet Shelby wishes she had one of Brian’s six double-digit RBs. Had she gotten double digits from her second flex spot and started Dak over Herbert (which maybe sounds crazy, but Herbert was playing the Jets), Shelby wins this one. There are many, many timelines where Shelby is 6-3 right now. Sometimes it just doesn’t happen. But in the binary, it’s like five total decisions that translate to three more wins this season. It’s tough. Oh man, this was the rematch of last year’s last place game. Shelby needed this one. Now, at 3-6, with no chance to win a points tiebreaker down the road, Shelby has to win out. If she wins out, she makes the playoffs (probably, assuming multiple teams don’t catch fire or bottom out).
Singularity Denied
Evan scored 109 FP. Had Coleman been able to score 110, we all would have been between 6-3 and 3-6, one step closer to all being 6-6 after Week 12, which would have been amazing. We would have had to redraft or something, just a chatoic reload with everyone basically even heading into the final two weeks of the season. But alas, Evan is one win away from clinching a playoff spot, and Coleman is almost definitely already eliminated. I don’t even think he has to lose again. As soon as six teams have six wins apiece, Coleman is done. So technically it will take two weeks for mathematical elimination, but it’s a running clock that can’t be stopped. It’s two kneel-downs. If you need something Coleman’s got, talk to him now. Talk to him yesterday. Let’s make Coleman’s 2024 draft absolutely loaded. (JK, Coleman is 2-7 because his players aren’t scoring points for him… but maybe they’ll score for you. Olave, Kittle, Walker, Rhamondre, Deebo, Mostert… it’s a solid group to choose from.)
Kenny Time
(not to be confused with Kennedy Time)
Yeah, as good as 54 from a QB is, 37 from an IDP is better. That is Mortydome math, but it’s correct. God, another 20 from Jordan Hicks. Nonsense. Kennedy needed Etienne in this one, and he needed more than 1.4 from Travis Kelce. Worst Kelce game since Week 8 of 2021. First game under 5 FP since Week 13 2021. So two possibilites: Kelce has hit the floor and can only go up from here, OR it’s time to consider… he might… be washed. Maybe not washed. Maybe just too washed to play well on an injured ankle as the season wears on. But the Chiefs can’t rest him. They don’t have other receivers capable of doing anything like what Kelce does for this offense. Now, they have a bye, then they have Philly. He has to play the Philly game just for the brand. The Chiefs have a winnable stretch of games and would probably rather have a healthy Kelce than homefield advantage—maybe not with the way the defense is playing—the point is: Kennedy should be thinking about Kelce insurance between now and the trade deadline.
Corey, you beautiful bastard, you got lucky until you didn’t need luck anymore. You crawled out of the points hole. You’re still near the bottom, but you’re firmly in the middle. You’re 10th but you’re five points from 7th and 25 points from 6th. More importantly, if you win two more games, the points don’t matter.
Doak vs. Kennedy
The two highest scoring teams go head-to-head, and the winner’s reward is a .500 record.
Kennedy lost last week despite finishing third in scoring. He’s on a four-game losing streak where he’s increased his scoring each week. He hasn’t faced fewer than 150 FP since Week 2. It’s all coming together. Facing me and my cursed self, it’s time for Kennedy to win a game again. It doesn’t have to be logical how he does it. I’m sure Davante Adams, on a disaster streak, playing the league’s best defense, will drop 25 somehow. Jonnu Smith will definitely outscore Taysom Hill, or, even more maximum fantasy football for me, Taysom Hill will actually outscore lots of Kennedy’s players but also all of my players on my way to, like, 144 FP. I think I’m the first team all year to have to play against Kennedy’s three-headed RB monster at full strength? (He played them in Week 1, but that was a melee.)
On my side, Lamar faces the best defense in football, and the Ravens’ defense—who might be the best in football (yes, that’s three best defenses in football so far: Jets, Browns, Ravens, and it’s true)—doesn’t need Lamar to score TDs. My entire team plays in the early window on Sunday because most of them are playing in just two games, except for Bijan Robinson. This is how successful NFL teams do it: build a lead and hold it. So after I score pretty much all the points I’m gonna score, I’ll be watching as Ekeler, Adams, Jonnu, Montgomery, Parsons, and Bobby Time try to come back. I am seriously debating dropping Cole Kmet in that second flex spot instead of Bijan, but I am far too afraid. I’m too afraid to start Kmet over Taysom. Kmet is just here for insurance. Then why are all the hairs on my body standing up?
Prediction: Kennedy wins 171 – 154
Corey vs. Cameron
Corey’s lucky streak continues: Cameron’s best player is on bye, and his second- and third-best players have bad matchups. Corey has to play without Waddle and Donald, sure, but Joe Burrow and Jordan Hicks are the life-blood of this team. In Donald’s place, Corey starts Boye Mafe, who I didn’t realize was having a phenomenal season, a floor of 6.5 and double digits in his last three games. He is almost guaranteed to get zero this week because that’s how the fantasy gods roll, but then, this is Corey’s magic season, so Mafe might just hit his season-high. I will be very interested to see if Corey is benching Fred Warner. Can’t possibly do that.
I can’t believe you’re both 6-3. Cameron has started, like, seven different QBs, and lately they’re hitting. He just got 20-something from Carr on Goff’s bye week. There’s some magic-touch stuff happening here, too. This might be a preview of our championship game. It’s always two teams I have no respect for, overachieving until the very end, when I finally accept that I just didn’t change my mind about their players soon enough. But let’s be real: they’re both getting insane IDP production. It’s unprecedented to win this league on the backs of your IDPs, but a theme of this NFL season is that defense is back, so why wouldn’t this be the year that a group of IDPs vaults you to the mountaintop?
Prediction: Corey wins by the difference between Burrow and Goff.
Sean vs. Evan
Rematch of last year’s championship. This is either the worst week for a rematch or the perfect week: both of their starting QBs are on bye. Evan was going to start folk hero Josh Dobbs, but then he spent a waiver to reacquire Will Levis, so that’s two waivers he’s spent on Will Levis in two weeks. I don’t think you can have high hopes for Levis with the Bucs coming off that brutal collapse last week. The defense is going to be so motivated to murder people on the field. I’m seriously considering benching DeAndre Hopkins just on the off-chance that Levis gets pressured on every drop back (but also JK because Bowles basically admitted he’s afraid to blitz when we have two backups playing in the secondary; sir, that’s exactly why you blitz, so that the B-team corners don’t have to hold up as long). Sean is starting Geno Smith coming off a -0.02 performance against the best defense in the league, now facing a Washington defense without it's top pass-rushers. Solid bounceback spot for Geno, nice add by Sean. If I were Evan, I would start Russell Wilson, and I’m not even slightly kidding.
Kennedy, mark this for a rivalry game (remember, you’re doing that?): we deserve to see Hurts and Tua in this matchup. It’ll be funny because whoever loses will feel like they have the edge the second time around. Evan is down three or four great players, while Sean is only down Hurts but has fewer great players to begin with. But he has IDP magic, so I guess he’s in the conversation for making the championship game. You would expect Evan’s tandem of Nick Bosa and Josh Allen to be the favorite, but against TJ Edwards and Kyzir White with out scoring settings, no chance.
Prediction: Sean wins now, Evan wins the rematch
Sean is starting four Cardinals, and I’m still picking him to win.
Brian vs. Coleman
Coleman’s season is over, so of course he will win this week. He has his 49ers back in action, he’s starting two Saints receivers, meaning he’s starting the third and fourth options in Derek Carr’s offense, and he’s without Mostert. It’s one of those dark before the dawn type moments.
For Brian, it’s the opposite: he’s finally back in the playoff mix after what felt like five years off, and just when he gets above .500, the fantasy gods will strike. Then again, he’s got Josh Allen. Then again, the Broncos defense (which has gotten better) has had two weeks to prepare for Josh Allen. Brian’s got bad matchups everywhere. This might be like a 110-point week. But can Coleman score 110?
Prediction: Coleman can score 110
Jags vs. Pervs
Spencer hasn’t set his lineup yet, but I assume everyone on his bench is coming in. I want to believe the Jags prevail, but I don’t like that the 49ers had two weeks to prepare for them, even if the Jags had two weeks to prepare back. Feels like the 49ers would have the advantage regardless. Spencer’s got bad matchups everywhere. His best players will be Ja’Marr Chase and Dalton Kincaid.
Max has bad matchups in most places, mainly QB, where he’s won our slap bet more or less by default since Daniel Jones couldn’t stay on the field. But this week, man, bench the Perv and pick up Russell Wilson before Evan does. But yeah, Saquon @DAL and Gus vs.CLE doesn’t bode well. You’ll need a spark from some unlikely place. Maybe it would be Saquon if anyone but Tommy DeVito were playing QB. Gus is on fire, but Cleveland is the best defense in the league.
Prediction: Max wins just because
Oliver vs. Shelby
Ah, the Lineup Accuracy Bowl. Both of these teams need badly to set the right lineup this week. If Shelby loses, her playoff hopes die. If Oliver loses, he and Shelby have the same record, which will probably be a tie for 9th place and lead to both of them getting squeezed by the points at the end of the season. We want to trade for your players, so we want Shelby to win, and I think if we all agree we want something, it will happen. The power of prayer, friends. It’s just that simple. Oliver starting Kyler against literallty the only other team who’s ever started Kyler in our league is juicy, but Justin Herbert in a shootout with Jared Goff is juicier.
Other intrigue:
DJ Moore revenge game Thursday night.
Addison and Gibbs the best rookie flex duo you can get.
TJ Watt vs. Hutch even though Hutch went cold.
Shelby finally gets a real kicker.
Oliver needs to win this week, and he needs a better RB than Pacheco and Mixon, but the better RBs are on teams more likely to make our playoffs. So I think the sun is going down on a season that frankly never should have shined this bright to begin with.
Prediction: Shelby wins if we all believe
