I have never been less in touch with who is good or what will happen. I started a rookie WR who is part of an ensemble over a future HOF WR who is the only game in town in his team’s passing offense. I lost by 30 when I could have won by 2. It’s not worth obsessing over, and yet…
But let’s try to think about other things. That Bucs-Bills game feels like it happened a month ago, perhaps because of how much happens between Thursday Night Football and the writing of this note, perhaps because the Bucs had the ball for entire week on their second-to-last drive of that game. That Mike Evans TD felt great when it happened. Now I wish he’d just dropped it so then I would have lost by more than the difference between Hopkins and Flowers.
No, let’s think about other things. The Bucs still don’t have a running game, but they’re doing a good job using screens to simulate a running game. More targets are going to Otton and TreyPalm—a nickname that needs only a touchdown to catch on. It’s technically leading to something? The Bucs are on a three-game skid since their bye, but the offense has scored 6, 13, and 18 in those three games, which means they will score more than 20 this week, against a Texans team that hasn’t scored more than 20 in their last three games. Napkin math will set us free.
Two weeks ago, the Bucs were the best team in their division, by record and reputation. Now they’re third in the standings and if the Panthers hadn’t been completely hopeless before their bye week, things might be even worse.
Understand a shift is taking place. It happens every year, but the rip tide of the first month of the season takes us under and by the time we get out, we’ve missed our chance to capitalize. I’m going to go through the teams again, keeping it very simple this time. Here is the change you need to be aware of, either about to take place or taking place already.
Arizona has a great offensive line, meaning they can kind of do what they want on offense when Kyler and Conner come back soon. Bad defense raises the ceiling.
Atlanta has boring offense that is able to move the ball, but Desmond Ridder has failed to get them over the goal line too many times. Heinicke solves this problem? At minimum, he can hit the wide open end zone looks Ridder has missed this year.
Baltimore is cooking, and they’re doing it differently based on what the defense is giving them. Arizona had a great gameplan for Lamar, so Gus got 19 carries and 3 TDs. Mark Andrews continues to be the only sure thing every week.
Buffalo is wretched on defense, which forces Josh Allen to lead the league in fantasy points. Leonard Fournette definitely takes over whatever Latavius Murray and Damien Harris were supposedly doing. The Bills don’t trust James Cook in pass-pro, and now they don’t have to. It shouldn’t matter outside of their hurry-up offense or if they’re down multiple scores.
Carolina is getting good on offense and defense. No training wheels for Bryce Young took its natural course: he looked dead, and now he’s able to drive this thing in traffic. DC Ejiro Evero is a genius; against all but the best offenses, the Panthers’ defense will be fine.
Chicago beat Washington and Vegas so far. Every good team they’ve played has crushed them. There isn’t an easy game left on their schedule. It’s going to be bad.
Cincinnati is back to Super Bowl boundness, and Joe Burrow is going to win MVP.
Cleveland can’t avoid my attention any harder. Big Perv is the most powerful player in the league. He has the coach and GM and owner all saying different things at press conferences because none of them want to say the easy thing: “It’s [Perv’s] decision.”
Dallas looks like they’ve figured out everything but how to run the ball with Pollard. Shelby is in shambles over trading away Kittle when Dak was the answer all along—though I predict she will get more for Herbert than she gave.
Denver not trading Jeudy is an indication that they like what’s happening this season, and they should. They just beat the Chiefs, and they look like a normal NFL team. They probably won’t make the playoffs, but had they had their shit together those first two weeks, they would be 5-3 right now and very much in the playoff conversation. At 3-5, it’s just too much to expect them to finish ahead of all four AFC North teams and the Chargers and whoever’s second between Miami and Buffalo.
Detroit has Shelby in shambles over David Montgomery coming to take his job back from Jahmyr Gibbs. Her success depends on 30-burgs from Gibbs every week.
Green Bay is bad, yeah? Jordan Love’s accuracy tanks this whole operation, and the defense, despite having the requisite talent, has a Sears mannequin calling plays. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are going to be shut down before the fantasy playoffs.
Houston’s loss to Carolina is pretty damning, showing this offense can be defeated with scheme, i.e., they don’t have a single talented enough player to get an untalented team off their gameplan.
Indy has brilliant offense. Terrible defense. Zero worries for fantasy. Gardner Minshew is going to have more big games. Pick those spots.
Jacksonville is a weird team, statistically average offense, occasionally look like the best offense in football, one of ten teams with at least 13 turnovers. They lack consistency because they want so badly to be unpredictable.
Kansas City is both smart and cool for throwing people with unspecified illness into piles of other people, I type as I unironically exmaine whether there’s a lump in my left breast. You’re a hypochondriac shut up.
Las Vegas – ha. Ha ha. Hahahahahaha!
LA Chargers are so un-fun to watch that a whole controversy was created when this fan who was having fun watching them was immediately indicted for being a paid actor and then went on, like, a full press tour talking about how she’s a real fan, is how much people want to do anything other than watch the Chargers or discuss what it’s like to watch the Chargers.
LA Rams are without Stafford for probably two weeks, and even then it’ll just be a banged-up Stafford, so this Rams offense is going to be running the ball a lot and playing field position and not having enough momentum to sustain both Kupp and Puka.
Miami is still the best offense in the league, good enough to overcome a Pats’ defense that was throwing good wrenches. We’ll see how they do jet-lagged against the Chiefs in Germany. And then starting in Week 12, they play NYJ, WAS, TEN, NYJ, DAL, BAL to close their season, so basically except for Washington, they get a real test, a longer stretch than even the playoffs will test, including playing that Baltimore game on the road on New Year’s Eve. If Miami can ace that test, simultaenously securing homefield advantage for the playoffs, they’re easily the favorites to win the Super Bowl. I can’t see that happening, which means it’s definitely happening.
Minnesota brings in Josh Dobbs, who is living a season of Disney’s The Jersey, a late-90s sitcom about a magic jersey that transubstantiated a person into the living, breathing body of a professional athlete actively playing in a game. For the first half of the season he had to be Kyler Murray; for the second half he’ll have to be Kirk Cousins. If he can do both of those things with basically zero onboarding in either situation, I think he just secured a lifetime bag? He’s only 28. He’s going to be paid $10 mil per year for the next seven years. Josh Dobbs YOU have generational wealth! The Vikings are 4-4 and have a chance to win their division. They are practically guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win five more games, which granted is four more than Dobbs was able to win in Arizona, but the Vikings roster is, like, a full ten points better in Madden, probably.
New England received one brief visit from Dante Scarnecchia in Week 7, and that was all it took to make this offensive line, and in effect the offense, look like one fit to play in the NFL. Decent line play is all it takes to be competitive. Sure, they will lose to the Dolphins. But I bet they’ll beat the ‘Ders and Colts, head into their bye week 4-6, come out and beat the Giants and Chargers, and suddenly they’re 6-6 and it’s the “why do we ever doubt Belichick” thing all over again.
New Orleans is consolidating the offense, so I’m starting Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill every week now, probably forever, if you want an Exhibit A that I’ve completely lost my bearings.
NY Giants get to write off the season to injuries. I don’t think the entire starting offense has played one snap together. With no Waller, probably for the season, Wan’Dale Robinson might get ten targets a game and be a fantasy thing. More likely, 25 carries for Saquon, 15 carries for Dimes, ten targets for the entire receiving corps.
NY Jets luck creates a perfect storm of elite defense, bad QB, terrible play from other RBs for Breece Hall to become a great RB this season. The path would have been much easier with Rodgers, who also would have made Garrett Wilson a top-five WR. Zach Wilson is sustaining the major parts of this offense, all two of them.
Philly isn’t humming on offense. The new OC doesn’t have the recipe for Steichen’s secret sauce. But Hurts is very close to being QB1 in fantasy. But Swift is nothing special. But AJ Brown is the most special. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert looked dead for a minute but they’re fine. They got everyone involved. They’re the 1-seed in the NFC, and the defense is vulnerable enough to keep them throwing all game long.
Pittsburgh had a moment where it seemed like Mister Biscuit was going to get serious playing time, and it still seems inevitable. Kenny Pickett is proving he’s tough, which is great until you start playing with injuries that affect your ability to throw, like, half the passes you need. This offensive design still sucks, but Pickett is playing pretty well, well enough that I don’t look at Pittsburgh’s main weapons and think anything negative.
San Francisco turned from a locomotive into a rickshaw pretty quickly. The dual injury to Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel in one week took about one-third of the offense away. They can’t run left, and the defense can occasionally cover all three of CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle. Next week, they go back to being a juggernaut.
Seattle is weird and will always be weird. Whatever we think this offense is, it isn’t. DK Metcalf isn’t very good, and he’s, like, hormonal? Gotta tell ya: if your whole life is football, weightlifting, video games, candy, and casual sex, I’m not surprised when you are an inconsistent worker constantly getting in fights with your coworkers. It’s pretty straightforward. Tyler Lockett looks old. JSN is relegated to be a role player (don’t get excited, DK). The Seahawks use a bunch of 3-TE sets and run the ball with two highly drafted RBs. I’m starting to feel like I wouldn’t start anyone on this offense unless I had bye weeks or it was a really good matchup.
The Bucs suck, but we love them. We love Baker not being able to throw over the line or having to scramble when he doesn’t get time. Then against the Bills, he had time and just shuffled his feet in the pocket until time ran out. It didn’t make any sense. But I’m starting to see a bunch of plays where nothing is really open, not open in the sense that good offenses are scheming dudes wide fucking open once every three plays. So I’m pretty nervous about my Mike Evans stock as I see more and more Rachaad White and Cade Otton targets.
Tennessee changed QBs, hopefully for good, because he’s the only aggressive thrower on the roster. He gives them an option besides hoping they get an early lead and are able to keep it. He’s not going to throw four TDs every week, and he’s going to get his shit rocked literally tonight, but he makes it possible that we can use Titan’s receivers besides Hopkins—not that we’re using Hopkins when we need him or anything (sobs uncontrollably).
Washington is committed to Sam Howell chucking that thang, which I obviously missed the boat on when I dropped Dotson and didn’t get him back in time. But weirdly, in additon to Dotson having 21 FP, Jamison Crowder also had 20 FP. So idk that I trust any of that. But Howell is having a very cool baseball-analytics type season. If you know who Joey Gallo is, or let’s go with Adam Dunn if you’re older and don’t watch anymore, that’s the lense we view Howell through. Home runs and strikeouts, baby.
All right, that wasn’t worth anything, but we proceed!
Lamb of SunGod 190 – 143 Bobby Time
This wasn’t always a blowout. In the early window, in the first half of the early window, this looked like it could have been a shootout. Etienne ended up outscoring Tua, but AJ Brown negated that, and then CJ Stroud got rooked by the Panthers. Kennedy benched Cam Bynum, which I thought was fucking stupid, I’m sorry. He was the #1 DB entering the week, and he remains the #1 DB. However, I do see now that Dax Hill is the #5 DB. So I take back saying it was fucking stupid. It just didn’t make sense to me. Aside from Etienne, Ekeler, Parsons, and Bobby Time, Kennedy had a rough week. He still scored enough to win a melee, so maybe everything is fine. Josh McDaniels getting fired and Jimmy G getting benched are very, very positive developments for Davante Adams. I think everything is fine.
Evan is kind of running away with this thing. Mercifully, he’s only 6-2, so he still needs two wins to clinch a playoff spot, but that was an effortless 190. That was Nolan Ryan throwing 95 is what that was. Lamb and Brown are vying for the #2 overall WR spot, and Tua’s WR is the unquestioned #1. Evan is not getting what he needs from Nick Bosa, and I wonder whether the 49ers’ acquistion of Chase Young leads to more sacks for Young or Bosa. Or will it be Hargrave? But look at the moves Evan is making. He’s just trimming the very edge. He’s trying to find a backup QB, he’s trying to find the guy at DB, eventually the guy at DL. The Cousins add was inspired. Shame it didn’t work out, especially with Tua’s potentially catastrophic playoff schedule. Really sorry that didn’t work out for you and now you’re not as likely to win. Bummer.
Chasin a Win 149 – 134 K-Bop
Corey is literally last in total points, and he’s 5-3, and, like, 149 is a good score! Joe Burrow, man. Joey B was the difference in this game, which is great since Corey made a potentially huge blunder starting Kendrick Bourne over Tyler Lockett. Not gonna have to worry about that happening again. Bourne blew out his knee and is done for the year, probably stuck in the Sterling Shepard zone for the rest of his career.
Coleman almost had it. The Cock and Kittle connection was strong this week. I am realizing just now that Coleman started both Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, but those two combined for the same number of points and Ken Walker and Rhamondre, so… Coleman probably needed to swing another trade before this game. At 2-6, alone in last place, Coleman needs to go 5-1 to make the playoffs. Anything can happen in Mortydome, but historically this does not happen. I’m sitting at 3-5 just grateful that most of the league in squished in the middle, otherwise I’d be fucked. Because in the end, it’s about me, isn’t it?
Piss Master 140 – 125 IDPU
Max is back. Two wins, four losses, two wins, playoff fringe. Excellent. Doing it with Stafford scoring 11 to Josh Allen’s 36, even better. How did Max win? 16 from Saquon, 10 from Keenan, 9 from Theilen (called it), 10 from DK? Oh wow: 15 from LaPorta and 30 from Gus Edwards. That trade looks better these last two weeks, as Gus has outscored Breece 53 to 19—fine, but even if you say last two GAMES, Gus is winning 53-39. Don’t ask me to go three games, pleaseandthankyou.
Brian almost reestablished IDPU (three-fourths this week), and Jermaine Johnson over Dre Greenlaw would have gotten you reeeeal close to win. But you scored 125. There’s only so much I can do for you. So don’t blame me. Blame Cooper Kupp’s 2.1.
Money 156 – 141 Tag
Another matchup that could have been close, but “flu game” isn’t a thing in football. It’s a thing in Michael Jordan’s life, and it’s a thing if you’re a DH in baseball. It’s not a thing when people are allowed to hit you. Can you imagine getting tackled while having the flu? Since when is Patrick Mahomes a secondary player in the Jackass gang? Why do this? Dumb! But obviously Oliver had to play him. Oliver only needed 27 combined from Mahomes and Pacheco, who were averaging about 40 coming into this game, so it’s a bad beat.
Sean had another IDP explosion from the least intimidating list of names in our league. 55 combined from Hunter, Edwards, Blankenship, and Kyzir White. Meanwhile Oliver had 51 from a group that people actually respect. Sean gets the win because Jalen Hurts scores 37, matching Hurts’ best output of the year so far, which Sean desperately needed since Hurts gets DAL, bye, KC these next three weeks, and he plays SF and DAL in Weeks 13 and 14. So getting to five wins now, needing probably just two more wins with that slate coming, this was a clutch win for a guy hoping to win back-to-back before falling back into the crowd next year when he doesn’t have an MVP candidate as a keeper.
teeny tiny tony 189 – 151 Jaguars
Cameron’s lineup was just a bunch of dudes hitting consecutive doubles. The whole lineup except the namesake was in double digits. The QB only had 15, but he tied for like 9th in scoring in this lineup. 20, 19, 18, 18, 15, 13, 12, 15. So solid. So unsustainable. My god, even the bench: 11, 11, 13, 13. Wow. Great week. Entirely out of sight of even the rearview at this point.
Spencer, oh Spencer. 151 is a great week. Good enough for a melee win. Really sucks to have to eat it against a top-two scoring team on the week.
Ghostface 169 – 139 Ooh La La
I mean, I got the prediction right, did I not? In a binary world, the difference between winning and losing came down to one player. Hopkins over Flowers would have won me the week. It would, like, mean something to lead the league in scoring if I were at least a playoff team. Shelby and I are tied for 9th place. The worst part this week was definitely the Hopkins things, but if I can look past that, the second-worst part is that Lamar scored 12 against the Arizona Cardinals because now the Ravens are a balanced offense where Lamar can game-manage them to victory even if the defense has a good gameplan for the pass attack. Mother. Fuck. The whole point of Lamar is he’s two positions in one. Now he’s just one. FUCK.
Shelby is back in this thing, fully. 169 is an awesome score, and she had 176 a few weeks ago. Looking at just her lineup, you wouldn’t assume she’s in it, but I guess if you share blood or a room with her, she knows how to motivate these assholes.
It’s 4:34 PM on the west coast, and I have a baby to feed by 5. Let’s cook.
Doak over Max
It just makes sense, right? Lamar bounces back. Neither of Max’s QBs look healthy. He might be starting Gardner Minshew (which would honestly terrify me). I have Kamara against a garbage Bears D. Max has Saquon against a fired up Raiders defense where the LBs coach just took over as HC. I’ve got a double-dose of TNF magic with the top WR on each team. Max has Keenan vs. Sauce and the dying breaths of Adam Thielen. I’ve got Taysom Hill either scoring 2 or 20. Max has the most boring TE ever created. I’ve got Mustard. He’s got Gustard. My IDPs are good. His are wack.
Oliver over Cameron
Cameron’s feeling way too good about his team. Mahomes is feeling like he needs to redeem himself before his bye week. It’s going to be a bloodbath. Cameron has to start Derek Carr this week, and the Bears just brought in a superstar pass-rusher for seemingly no reason, so the reason must be to ruin Cameron’s weekend. I wish Oliver had a better team so I could use reason to argue for his success, but honestly, I just believe in the chaotic nature of this game. Cameron’s riding a little too high. He’s gotta come down. I think the Chiefs put a lid on their former #1 WR. I think Pollard gets stuffed by the best run D in the league. Jacobs gets stuffed by a blitz-happy Giants D. Hockenson has no rhythm with Jarren Hall(?). Cameron is starting Darrell Henderson. His season is over.
Oliver’s team is quite ugly, but he has Mixon against the Bills. I think that plus Mahomes should do it.
Sean over Spencer
The Jags are on bye. Jalen Hurts is not.
Brian over Shelby
Shelby never lived with Brian, and Brian doesn’t have half of his team on bye, so the recipe for Shelby winning doesn’t check out this week. Also Justin Herbert plays the Jets, and Dak plays the Eagles, so she’s fucked. Plus the Lions are on bye, so her precious Jahmyr can’t swoop in with 40 and save her. I’m not bitter you’re bitter
Evan over Coleman
Evan is an undeniable force. Coleman is a blade of grass, especially with half of his team on bye.
Bobby Time over Corey Time
Corey could not win another game, and it would still be an overachievement for where he ranks in scoring. This is just one of those things that has to happen, and if that isn’t enough, his matchups are terrible. Kennedy should probably get a different QB to be safe. I would suggest Bryce Young, so maybe just stick with what you got.
It is 4:49. We did it with time to spare. No, that doesn’t mean you get more. If you want more, you trade me something for Darren Waller. (Actually I won’t have time to spare because I still have to spell-check and put it in HTML.)
