I am personally offended by the win-loss distribution in our league this week. With the exception of Cameron leading the week in scoring (which it feels like he does twice each September), all the bad teams won, and all the good teams lost. It’s an affront to my beliefs!
Dave 129 – 123 Ghostface
Shelby and Kennedy’s game didn’t technically have a good team playing, but when you read off the names or just consider the situations of Shelby’s players right now, it just feels like this should have been a good week. Instead, she was dead last, and she will not soon forget the week she benched Rachaad White while starting three backup RBs—which, to be clear, I probably would have also done, especially if you’d told me ahead of time David Montgomery would leave the Lions’ game early. And it really feels like, had Jamaal Williams played the whole game, Shelby would have gotten the points she needed. You hate to see TJ Watt score 30 in a loss and then follow it up with 25 in another loss. As someone who thought seriously about drafting TJ Watt with any of my three fourth-round picks (ahead of Shelby’s), you really, really hate to see it. I mean, mercifully, I only had two fourths by the time the draft started, but I feel like a total dumbass for using one of them on Jahan Dotson (granted, that pick was bookended by Christian Watson and JK Dobbins, so I guess I should be grateful?).
Justin Fields is a hot topic this week, so just Twitter about him. Basically, his stats suggest that he is not at all even slightly good, while he suggests that his coaching is not at all even slightly good, while the words he uses to make that point suggest that his ability to process information is not at all even slightly good, which is backed up by the stats that say he has the longest time to throw in the league AND takes the most sacks.
Shelby’s team should take off as soon as next week. I mean, ideally, it would have started this week. Starting either Jordan Addison or Rachaad White over either Joshua Kelley or Jamaal Williams would have done the trick. That’s pain. 0-2 is no fun. But the roster is good. Not great. But good enough. Solid QBs, solid IDPs, you’ve likely learned what your best lineup is now (Chaad and Addison every week forever). The only head-scratcher is Joshua Kelley. He had a mediocre week against an elite run defense. It complicates things. You have to start Gibbs, Diggs, Chaad, and Addison. That means DJ Moore and Joshua Kelley are competing for that last flex spot. DJ Moore’s name wins, but his stat-line from Week 2 had a lot to do with facing backup DBs for the Bucs. I would play matchups. And this week, Kelley faces a bad defense, while Moore faces a good one. It’s not going to be super fun figuring out what to do at QB. I usually preach pick a starter, but Love has been so good. So I’m probably playing matchups there, as well.
Kennedy won largely because Zack Moss scored 20 FP while Micah Parsons had 27. (The Watt-Parsons matchup lived up to its billing. The Kelce-Kittle matchup did not.) Kennedy has his own QB controversy if CJ Stroud keeps outscoring Fields. With OSU-ND on the slate this weekend, it’s a weird situation to be in, for sure.
Lamb of SunGod 130 – 128 Tag-Man
This was just cruel from the fantasy gods. Nick Chubb is done for the year, and his injury came inside the ten-yard line, on a drive that ended in a rushing touchdown for the backup RB. Nick Chubb didn’t even need to finish the game for Oliver to win; he just needed to finish the drive. Oliver also lost Brandon Aiyuk, who’s likely to miss time or play poorly due to an AC sprain. And on the bench, Oliver had 30 from Kyren, 25 from Nico, 23 from Mims… ugh. Gut punch after gut punch. Oh and he got a point in stat corrections just to make it that much closer.
What was up with linebackers not getting tackles this week? A bunch of our starters, and these are quality players, ended up with fewer than five tackles.
Sometimes people say things like, “I’m not gonna discredit Evan for getting the win,” but he scored 130. Now, that’s been enough for a win two weeks in a row, but as someone who scored 147, I don’t like it. And he started the wrong QB. Anthony Richardson scored more points in one quarter than Tua scored in a full game. Most weeks, Tua is better, but against the Patriots? Please. Let’s agree it takes a truly elite QB to score FP on Belichick, especially in a night game. Credit to Evan for starting D’Andre Swift. He should have started him over Dameon Pierce and not George Pickens, and he would have scored a respectable amount of points. As it stands, kind of a gross win. But it’s a win, fine.
I feel for Oliver, but at least the injuries make room for Kyren and Nico to get in the lineup.
I guess I’ll do a bit on Chubb and the state of the RB. Teams are wage-slaving these RBs, and there is a karmic reckoning taking place. The way NFL players get paid needs to grow a little closer to baseball. We need arbitration for these young RBs destroying their bodies for basically no money. That’s mainly it. I feel like Chubb’s career isn’t over, but I also feel like he’s going to come back 80% of what he is now, and it’s really sad.
Jacobsfuscation 191 – 137 Seminole Smacked Down
We all had Danny Dimes scoring 40 FP in the second half, I’m sure. You might look at his final score of 39 and say, surely you mis-math’d it, Doak. But no, in fact, Dimes scored over 41 FP in the second half after finishing the first half with negative-2. And Cameron could have started no QB and won. It was that dominant a performance from… wow, everyone? Everyone not in a Raiders’ uniform. Josh Jacobs is bad now? Or the line is. Or the QB is. Whatever it is, it’s not even that bad in a first-downs league because Jacobs still gets… oh wow. He didn’t get one rushing first down. He ended the game with nine carries for negative-2 yards. Woof. But shit, man, you get 20+ from each of Tee, TJ, Tony, and DeVonta, and who cares. You could have benched Dimes and Jacobs and won. (Maybe try that this week against me, please?)
Brian, oh Brian. It actually wasn’t such an ugly week. You outscored four teams, including two teams that won their matchups. That’s a good feeling, right? And your kicker was your highest scoring player besides your QB. Man, you must be feeling hot.
I am sincerely afraid of Brian’s team if his WRs manage to stay in double digits every week. He has between four and seven starting RBs. He has great IDPs (once he replaces Singleton), and he has the ultimate trump card in Josh Allen (well, second to Danny Dimes).
Chasin a Win 147 – 125 How to Play Fantasy
I love the change-the-culture move of renaming the team and manifesting the victory. I absolutely love it. It inspires confidence in everyone. Joe Burrow makes me super nervous. With a Monday game coming, he will probably gut it out and not miss any time this season. But will he score more than 22 most weeks? I really don’t think so. Then again, I watched that Bengals-Ravens game. Burrow had a TD to Ja’Marr Chase that was miraculously ripped from Chase’s hands in the endzone. Like nine of ten times, Chase squeezes that. It was just an unreal rip from the DB. Because he’s a Raven, and Ravens are notoriously stronger than Bengals. It’s the sharpness of the beak that deflates the ball and makes it easier to claw away. Corey won’t have any starting RBs a few weeks from now (Najee is losing ground to Jaylen Warren), but he has the quad-fecta of stud WRs, he has the sick IDPs, and he has Burrow probably managing 20 per game, even on the bad calf. That’s enough to chalk up 140 a week and take one of the last playoff spots.
Chalk it up to a weird week for the Spencersville Jaguars. That game against the Chiefs was real weird. The Jags had a weird game plan, and I vaguely recall multiple should-have-been TDs that didn’t work out. They decided to make it a Christian Kirk game. Had Ridley gotten Kirk’s work, Spencer would have won this matchup. The Chase TD would have been a wash, but it would have also led to a more respectable final score for Spe. If Lawrence and Ridley just scored their eventual averages of, like, 23 and 15, That’s 25-ish more points for Spencer this week, just enough to squeak by.
These are playoff teams. There is very realistically going to be a first-round rematch between them.
You Don’t Pay 173 – 147 Pretty F’d Up
Yeah I’m fine taking this one on the chin. 147 is a good score, more than I scored last week. Lamar bounced back in a big way. The mainstream discourse this week was about how Lamar can now beat a defense no matter what they throw at him. He is fully unlocked, and a 32 FP game where he left meat on the bone is… a Pavolvian experience for me. Mike Evans was huge. If my IDPs had just, like, shown up for their games, this would have been a close matchup. After getting 50+ from these dudes last week, my guys combined for 15 this week. Had it just been ten apiece, which is realistic for the names I have, I would have been a touchdown away from winning this one, a touchdown that Rhamondre Stevenson likely scores if the refs let that Cole Strange play stand for a first down. I feel good.
I feel like Sean can expect most of this to happen again, but the combined 45 from Conner and Hunter, probably gonna be more like 20. Sneed is great, but 17.5 is probably his high for the year. Then again, Sean had a 30-pt RB and two 15-pt WRs on the bench, so maybe. But only Mattison played himself out of the lineup. I can see Sean benching Zay Flowers for Amari Cooper, but yuck.
Rooting for the Browns’ offense is hard. It’s not fun to watch, and without Chubb, I’m not sure it’s a viable offense. Having the best RB in football will make your running game look good. The Cleveland line is still good, and Jerome Ford had buzz ahead of the NFL Draft. Some Trash Asshole might steal his job. An offense centered around Big Perv putting the pill in Some Trash Asshole’s stomach for six… I might have to trade Myles Garrett just to get out completely.
To re-emphasize something that happened last week, Sean added two players who combined for 58 FP in Week 2. We should all be ashamed we let this dude off the mat. He entered the year with no first-rounder and basically no late keeper. He’s rocking a top-five lineup entering Week 3. Jalen Hurts will buoy any team, but shit. He was starting two Cardinals. And now he’s a playoff team. Shame on all of us.
Piss Master 159 – 139 K-Bop
This was the game of the week. Max’s 2-0 is an awesome story for a league that’s famous for its parity. Talk about coming into the year with basically no late keeper. Max won’t even start Thielen, BUT Thielen is the top target in Carolina. It’s significant for fantasy. It’s almost definitely not sustainable for a full season, but it’s better than Alexander Mattison sucking ass and then losing his job. Speaking of not sustainable, Max’s IDPs scored 65 FP this week. It’s huge. Winning in September is underrated. In our league especially, where Brock Purdy can deliver the chip, all you have to do is make the playoffs, and if you get out to a 2-0 start, that becomes much more realistic. Max’s team is wrecked by the Saquon and Chubb injuries. There’s an argument to be made that this makes Big Perv the focal point of the Browns’ offense. I will just leave that there.
Bijan Robinson was worth the #3 pick in the draft. Which Max spent on Saquon, who was also worth the #3 pick in the draft. So it’s tough. I would have taken Bijan, but I famously blow draft picks. Coleman, I will trade you so much for Bijan when you’re eliminated from playoff contention. Please don’t accept a trade for him without giving me a chance to beat it. He’s so fucking fun and good and I need him in every league forever now. Coleman’s team is good, but it's hard to climb out of an 0-2 hole. And Coleman famously—yeah, it’s the 25th time I’ve said famously in like three paragraphs, fight me—famously lets his team slowly erode as the season goes on. So with basically nothing on the bench already, I’m putting my interest for Bijan out there early.
A perfect distillation of fantasy football is right in the middle of our standings after one week.
Kennedy is 2-0 with 265.28 FP
Spencer is 1-1 with 265.28 FP
Coleman is 0-2 with 265.06 FP
Okay, let’s hit waivers again, though I don’t think I’ll do this every week:
Coleman is going to hold #1 priority for another two months minimum. I am a proponent of being able to trade for waiver priority. Oliver has contended that since there’s no mechanism for involving it in a trade (i.e., that it’s something I would have to do manually), trading for priority is out of bounds. So fine. But Coleman has spent years holding the #1 spot for too long, letting good adds go by basically as a result of not checking his team (Budda Baker wants a word).
Jerome Ford was an obvious add. There’s a solid chance he loses the starting job. I believe the team let STA walk in free agency because of money and they figured Chubb would do most of the work. Shit done changed. Ford is good, but STA was coveted by at least two other teams in free agency. Nobody wanted to pay him. Now the Browns will pay $4M, which is pretty big money for an in-season addition. Good on Brian. Corey tried, which is significant. He needs a starting RB so, so bad. Make a trade, guys.
Matt Breida is bullshit. The Giants don’t really want to run the ball, and I don’t know how much gamescript will let them. Assuming Barkley misses four weeks (which, it’s looking like it’ll be two or three), the Giants will face SF, SEA, MIA, and BUF without him. Forget whether those defenses are good (they mostly are); those offenses will cook the Giants’ D and force them to playing from behind. Breida can catch, so… cool. But they’re going to push the ball downfield. They need to prove Dimes is worth $40M per year. But also, hey, see what you’ve got.
Taysom Hill was on my radar before the news that Kendre Miller would play. I think Taysom has massive upside, but I also think that the Saints could justify using him in the wildcat more with Andy Dalton at QB. They want Carr in the game. Hill isn’t going to be a thing.
Tyjae Spears is a massive add, also someone I would have added. I didn’t want to spend my priority this week on fliers, though. But the Titans are extremely likely to trade Derrick Henry before the trade deadline. Someone has to give them a second-rounder for him, which is hard to fathom, but five weeks from now, it’ll be easier for the Titans to eat salary and for another team to get him under the cap. Spears will be a flex guy even without that trade.
Quay Walker had 17 tackles against the run-heaviest team in the league. He was also a first-round pick last year. Probably a decent add.
Jakobi Meyers was a huge part of the Raiders’ offense before getting concussed. The way they use him, he’ll probably get concussed again, so likely a wash since Sean can’t squeeze him in the lineup anyway.
Evan got my goat when he added Elijah Mitchell. I was awake before he made the move, but I was trying to get the baby back to sleep and forgot all about it until I was back in bed half an hour after Evan made the move. I’ll be annoyed when Mitchell has 10 FP this week and Evan hangs onto him.
Kennedy dropped Greg Joseph, and I smiled about it.
I added Some Trash Asshole (Browns’ Version), but I have a moral clause that prevents me from capitalizing off those guys. You may say what about Kamara, but I don’t have the particulars on Kamara beating up women or kids. Beating up asshole dudes in Vegas doesn’t meet my threshold.
K-Bop over Killers
Somebody is going 0-3, and I hate to put Shelby in that position, but Coleman has the better players. Granted, it’s close. Coleman is either starting two Falcon’s RBs against Detroit, or he’s flexing Raheem Mostert. His TE is trash. Olave faces Jaire Alexander. There’s some uphill there. But Justin Herbert faces an awful Minnesota defense, Ken Walker faces a Carolina defense that’s been bad even with Shaq Thompson, in what’s likely to be overwhelmingly positive gamescript (i.e., much running in the second half).
Shelby goes back to Dak with Jordan Love facing a solid Saints’ defense, but facing Arizona could be bad for Dak in the way that facing the Giants was bad for Dak. The Cowboys won’t throw if they don’t have to, will they? So it’s tough, not because one will outscore the other by a lot, but because each will likely score 15-ish. Jahmyr Gibbs should break out this week. You have to hope he does the QB-type scoring, hitting 30+, but the Lions will almost definitely pull him at the goal line for Craig Reynolds. You have to start Rachaad White, but against Philly’s d-line, that’s asking for pain. So maybe you roll Joshua Kelley one more week against the Minnesota trash, hope that the Chargers run for all their TDs and Herbert has a good real day but not so much for fantasy. It’s possible. It’s worth the gamble more than Chaad is this week. At IDP, I really like the Anzalone add. Play off-ball LBs against Atlanta. They will rack up tackles. If Shelby wins, it will be because of the defense. Her crew is much better than Coleman’s right now.
Prediction: Coleman 132 – Shelby 129
Piss Master over Roy 2: Dave
One of these teams is going 3-0, and I’m building Max’s redemption arc. I’m hoping he pivots to Stafford. Stafford has been awesome, and he’s due for touchdown regression. I really don’t see Big Perv coming through against the Titans. Max appears to be starting Matt Breida, I say without further comment. For the sake of the redemption arc, I just have to suggest that vibes will overcome and build a case that Max’s players will outperform their projections. So maybe Breida scores a TD or two, or maybe he has a shit-ton of first downs on checkdowns. Maybe Max takes Dillon out and lets Adam Thielen cook in the flex.
BY THE WAY, on Thursday night, you should be starting players in their position spots, not in the flex. This gives you more options later in the week if there are surprises. I think Evan should have started Swift in the flex so he could have waited until Sunday to choose between Pierce and Pickens in the flex. But even without that, it just makes sense: you know you’re starting him, so burn the static spot in your lineup and leave the dynamic spot for later.
Keenan and DK will be great this week, and I bet Pittman can do damage against a weak Baltimore secondary, especially if it’s Minshew slinging it. I don’t love Max’s IDPs, but they’ve scored the points. You can’t argue against the points.
Kennedy is starting Fields again, but he really shouldn’t. The Chiefs are going to murder him. CJ Stroud is going to play from behind against Jacksonville and throw multiple TDs AGAIN. Fields isn’t dead yet, but this isn’t the week to hope for the magic. Zack Moss is going to get crushed by Baltimore’s elite front, but the rest of Kennedy’s starters as of Thursday morning look good. Gotta recommend taking a risk and putting Kendre Miller in. If you really can’t stomach it, I’d still opt for another bench guy. Jeudy in a shootout with Miami is cool. Watson is risky, but risks are fun. It’s a game. Play it like a game. Oh man, you’ve gotta start multiple of those guys anyway. Zay Jones and David Montgomery are going to be out. I don’t know why I said Kennedy’s lineup was good. I was really just looking at Adams, Kelce, and Parsons. Otherwise, it’s perfectly meh.
Prediction: Max 155 – Kennedy 125
Tag-Man over Chasin a Win
On the surface, this is a game between Corey on-the-rise and Oliver on-the-schneid. But Corey doesn’t have a starting RB, Waddle is probably out with a concussion (though Miami makes its own rules with those), Kyle Pitts is doing nothing, and we don’t know what’s up with Burrow’s calf. Against a weaker team, maybe you overcome these setbacks. But Oliver is injecting his lineup with fresh breakout players, most notably everydown back Kyren Williams, who the Rams think is Christian McCaffrey. Oliver’s WRs are fucking weird, but he has Mahomes, he has three solid RBs… I just don’t think he’s losing this week. Now, one group of wrinkles: Cole Kmet at TE and a bunch of crap at IDP. Oliver would benefit from dumping everyone but his bb Will Anderson and just playing matchups. You can’t keep starting two Colts. Shaq Leonard isn’t happening, and Buckner isn’t repeating that Week 1 performance. Go get tackle-stacking LBs Quincy Williams (vs. NE) and Jordyn Love (vs. CAR) for this week. For DB, you have a ton of options. Dax Hill has been a revelation for Cincy. Do that, and this win gets a whole lot easier.
Prediction: Oliver 149 – Corey 134
Ooh La La over Jacobsfuscation
Oh please let me face Kirk Cousins coming off the game of his life, now facing an 0-2 team whose defense has been raked through the coals for two weeks. I can’t wait to see that single-digit FP at the end of the early games on Sunday, especially after Lamar drops 40 for one of many times this year. Delicious. Also can’t wait to see Josh Jacobs rush for negative yards again, while you get to look at CMC’s 23 exactly for the cash win for three days leading up to it. And your former bb Waller going off while Danny Dimes sits on your bench oh my god ecstasy. I am very nervous about facing your WRs. I can’t lie. I will have to score a lot of points, and I don’t have full faith that my hodge-podge of skill players can make that happen. And our IDPs are pretty evenly matched. So it’ll be tight. I don’t really believe I’ll win. But that’ll make it so much sweeter when I eventually do. If nothing else, my three Bucs against your Eagle and Bengal on Monday night should make it a fun finish.
Prediction: utter chaos
How to Play over Lamb of SunGod
This is mostly about Spencer deserving a win he didn’t get last week while Evan got a win he didn’t deserve. Which assumes fantasy is fair, which it’s definitely not. But like I do with most, I mostly based this on the first few things I see when I open the matchup, and in this case, that’s Trevor vs. Tua, Ja’Marr Chase getting right, Amon-Ra having turf toe, Chris Godwin quick-game to overcome an intense Eagles pass-rush, and D’Andre Swift getting his teeth kicked in by the Bucs’ front seven. Spencer has Aaron Jones in the lineup, but I don’t believe Jones will play. Spencer will pivot back to Garrett Wilson, who is just too good to bench, no matter how bad his QB is, no matter how much Belichick will try to take him away. I think Wilson is good enough at this prime-OBJ slant game that he’ll either rack up seven catches for 70 yards or he’ll break one for a massive TD like he did against Dallas. Maybe Belichick schemes it away. It’s reasonable. But do you really want Garrett Wilson going off on your bench in a game where you need every point you can get? If only Kadarius Toney were healthy, that would be a justifiable pivot off Wilson, but if you want a spicy-ass pivot, it might be time to roll Tank Dell out there. He’s been getting wide open, and the Texans can only do the Robert Woods thing for so long.
Evan’s IDPs are insanely intimidating. Bosa hasn’t had THAT game yet, and it’s a pretty obvious matchup for him to finally do nasty shit. Similar to the Garrett Wilson argument, Evan’s WRs are just too filthy. Matchups really don’t matter. But if Amon-Ra can’t go, and Evan has to pivot back to Dameon Pierce, it gets a little ugly. Ugly enough for Spencer to steal one.
Prediction: Spencer 142 – Evan 136
Seminole Smackdown over You Don’t Pay With Money
Brian is 0-2, and I can’t do another season of Brian not winning any games. At least he’s scoring points this season. Brian’s 137 in Week 2 was more than he scored in any regular season game last year, eclipsed only by his 174 explosion to avoid dead last in Week 16. So we’re looking good. We’re feeling good. But you start Jerome Ford at your own peril. The Titans’ run defense is too good. But fine. Do what makes you feel confident. I’d bank on the Jaylen Warren breakout against rough Raiders defense, but that’s me. He’ll I’d even bet on the ‘Ders going back to Gibson as they fight from behind the whole game against Buffalo. But again, different strokes.
I just don’t want Sean to win anymore. Just one year off. So the way that happens is Josh Allen goes nuclear and Jalen Hurts gets spanked by the Bucs. That’s the meat. But also Antonio Gibson outscores Brian Robinson. But also Cam Akers outscores Alexander Mattison. Make it personal. Take a page from the Coach Prime handbook here. Put on your Blenders and just believe you have what it takes to win against anybody. And hope Puka Nacua wears the wrong cleats or something. And for the love of Jordan Travis, replace Alex Singleton with a real linebacker.
Prediction: Brian 169 – Sean 94
See you next week for more vibes-based analysis.
