Here’s how keeper QBs fared in Week 1:
Mahomes 26.6
Herbert 25.2
Lawrence 23.1
Hurts 15.7
Fields 14.9
Lamar 6.3
Burrow 2.6
Here’s how top-drafted QB fared:
Richardson 23.3
Big Perv 22.3
Allen 10.9
Dak 7.6
Dimes -2
Here are the top three QBs:
Tua 37.9
Mac 30.6
Love 29.5
Here are free agents over 20 FP:
Baker 23.1
Cousins 22.8
Guapolo 22.1
Of the top 10 overall players in fantasy for the week, four were QBs. In the top 20, seven QBs. You have to go all the way to 30 total players before you get to the 12 best QBs in fantasy. Last year, in average points per game, QBs were the whole top 10. In 2021, QBs were eight of the top 10. In 2020, nine of 10. In 2019, eight of 10. In Week 1 of the past four seasons, the top 10 had six QBs, eight QBs, six QBs, and six QBs. Maybe it’s nothing.
But maybe it’s a sign of things to come. The major theme of Week 1 was defense and running the ball. Now, in some regard, that’s just smart football after all that time off. Throw in some weather and some blowouts, and it all becomes circumstantial.
I’m not adding a backup QB, and if you kept a QB, you shouldn’t add a backup either. Mahomes, Herbert, and Lawrence were great. Hurts, Fields, and Burrow were facing great defenses, and Burrow had weather and didn’t practice until a week before the season. Lamar is my bb.
I’m more worried about the high-drafted QBs.
Richardson got hurt late in the game, and while he’s expected to be fine, they’re not expected to use him lightly going forward, which might make it easier for Evan to pivot to Tua right away.
Big Perv had a nice fantasy day thanks to 45 rushing yards and a TD. The weather was a problem, but it’s Cleveland. Weather wil be a problem most of the season.
Josh Allen is like every other player Brian’s drafted the last few years. At this point, Brian needs a shaman or an exorcist. A backup QB and some elbow grease won’t cut it. If I’m Brian, I’m trading Josh Allen for the good of the football-watching world. Add Baker Mayfield and start collecting too many picks again.
Dak Prescott is a good QB with an elite defense. As long as the defense is getting takeaways and creating short fields, as long as the Cowboys’ line is a top-5 unit, Dak doesn’t need to do the things that make a QB great for fantasy. With Dak facing the Jets defense this week, Shelby should seriously consider starting Jordan Love against Atlanta, and if Love outscores Dak again, I think he’s your new starter.
Danny Dimes… deep sigh. I hope it’s just that the Cowboys defense is that good.
Okay so the recap the melee, 130 FP is historically low, especially in the 12-man lineup era. And it’s really a shame because the scores near 140 were so tight (Max outscored Spencer by 0.12 and Spencer outscored Oliver by 0.7) that it would have made for an even more fun Monday night had there been, um, competition there. I had 11 of 12 players play in the early window on Sunday and did not need any points after that, which was cool but also, like, damn, y’all. Get your weight up, little boy.
Corey had the worst week, but a lot of that is karma for not stacking Bengals. Joe Burrow felt that disrespect and decided you needed to learn a lesson. He lost an important divisional game to teach you, specifically, a lesson. There’s still time to trade for Ja’Marr Chase. I can’t explain solipsism, but I know that it is real. If you trade for Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals will start scoring touchdowns. Corey’s problem isn’t QB or even WR. It’s RB. It’s a very serious problem. Corey is three weeks away from having zero starting RBs. Najee is losing to Warren, Dalvin already lost to Breece, and I can’t even take Singletary seriously. How seriously are you “Chasin a win” if there were a handful of starters available on waivers and you didn’t even put in a bid? You have an empty roster spot!
Corey is down bad, but Brian might be cursed. Forget Josh Allen having 10 or Drake London having zero, or Graham Gano having the same number of points as Danny Dimes. Brian’s IDPs scored 51 FP in a loss. You’re not getting 50 IDP points every week. I got 58 and I’m wondering who I need to drop in order to stay hot. Half of Brian’s points came from four players drafted in the seventh round or later, and he didn’t just lose; he lost by 30 to the sixth-place team.
Evan, I didn’t forget about you. Although you finished in obscurity, I took notice that your RB situation is nearly as bad as Corey’s. Kenneth Gainwell’s rib injury is about to save your season, you lucky dick. You drafted four RBs and then added a fifth, and they combined—COMBINED—for 7.8 FP this week. Dalvin Cook had more than that on Corey’s bench. But now D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny are about to run for 150 and two TDs combined on Thursday night. Lucky. Dick.
I’m not worried about Shelby or Coleman at all. If Shelby had started her backup QB, she would’ve won. Coleman had some shitty IDP luck but clearly has a good team. The Dobbins injury is brutal but it opens a spot for Tyler Allgeier going forward.
Winning teams, you’re safe from criticism this week.
I want to shout out Max for getting the Big Perv pick right so far. Zaire Franklin was another blod pick that paid off huge in starting the year 1-0.
Kennedy and I both benefitted from the oldest trick in fantasy: drafting RBs who score all the points. Kennedy had three RBs touch the ball 20+ times apiece this week! He got the win despite having Travis Kelce and Christian Watson out (and Jeudy, if that’s your thing). Dark horse championship contender if Fields can get it together.
Oliver got 78 FP from his big three Mahomes, Chubb, and Aiyuk. Yep, I’m giving Aiyuk big-three status already. He was a first-round pick, he was a top-16 WR last year, and he’s awesome at everything. Oliver made an excellent pick, potential steal of the draft, in Brandon Aiyuk.
The Spencersville Jaguars did their job this week, and with a 1-0 cushion and no injuries, Spencer can continue with this lineup and keep 20 people on his roster until further notice. (Okay, technically Aaron Jones got injured, but he claimed he could’ve gone back in if the game were close.)
Cameron, I said the winning teams were excused from criticism, so… good… win. Danny Dimes and some trash asshole combined for 40 FP. STA and Tee Higgins combined for 42.5!
Aaron Rodgers is an asshole. I was deeply disappointed to hear analysts chastizing people for rooting for Rodgers to fail. That dude sucks! I don’t care if he doesn’t get to make $40M per year playing football anymore, and you can’t convince me there’s any moral upside to saying nothing versus saying he’s an asshole. Doesn’t anybody do schadenfreude anymore?
The Jets really don’t need a new QB, and whether they get one or not is irrelevant to the larger context of this football season. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t taking them to the Super Bowl. I don’t care how good their defense is—okay, that’s a lie because I still believe defense wins championships. To go one step further, it was always going to be the defense that took this team however far they went because the offensive line is so, so bad. Another reason it doesn’t matter who the QB is: the line can’t protect him! They’re going to play four different QBs again this year, and nobody should be confused as to why that happened.
BUT if they did sign a QB, it should be Kaepernick. It isn’t happening because Kapernick is 35 and hasn’t played in… seven years? But it’s so much more inspiring than Rivers or Ryan dinking and dunking down the field every week—even if that’s exactly what this team needs. Give me Kaep chucking bullets to Garrett Wilson PLEASE.
Um, what else?
The Bucs are pretty good! Baker Mayfield is spicy, the defense is strong, Evans and Godwin are still an elite duo. The line isn’t great, hence the running game is weird and the Bucs end up in third-and-long way too much to sustain success, but if somehow they can get better from getting more reps, we’ve got a stew going, baybeee. It’s pretty surprising that Baker is a free agent in Mortydome, but I can’t make room for an extra QB, and most of the Bucs fans can’t squeeze him in either. We’ll get there. He’ll shred the Bears, and we’ll get there.
Other surprsing free agents (but again, the league is shallow by design): Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Samaje Perine, Allen Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Jaelan Phillips, Jermaine Johnson (Brian), Jonathan Allen, Jordyn Brooks, and Jevon Holland. Nick Folk isn’t surprising, but somebody should probably go get him, right? (Looking) Kennedy, get that Greg Joseph bullshit outta here already!
If only because it was such a good week for waivers, if that wasn’t evident by the discourse in the chat this week.
And after all that fuss, Sean got the best two players? How the fuck? I didn’t put in a bid on Brian Robinson because I already have Jahan Dotson. What are the rest of you doing?
I was deeply disappointed I spent my waiver priority on Hunter Henry, not because he wasn’t worth it but because no one else put in a bid. (weeps) I could have had the #1!
Oliver cleaned up similarly to Sean, maybe better. Puka Nacua might not be a thing. Like we have to be mindful of anomalies. He’s about to face San Francisco, and we’ll see what’s real. But Rashid Shaheed is most certainly a thing. And Kyren Williams might be the Rams’ starter? Oliver did something funny, too, which was just flagrantly chase last week’s IDP points, which… never works? But I respect the attempted hustle.
Kennedy did what Corey should have done, which was desperately scrape the barrel for starting RBs.
By the end of the year, we could look back and say Shelby made the best waiver pickup this week. Joshua Kelley is a starter. The Chargers start two RBs, much like (Chargers’ OC former offense) Dallas did last year. And Austin Ekeler hurt his ankle. Joshua Kelley was drafted to be a Ekeler insurance, and he’s built more like a prototypical RB than Ekeler is.
I think everyone else was better off saving their waiver priority, but I will shout out Evan for adding Matt Milano, who should have been a high draft pick in our league. EDGE Josh Allen might finally be breaking out, but Indy has a garbage o-line, so we’ll see how Allen does against not-garbage o-lines.
Cameron spending waivers on Cousins and Bourne is funny to me. I can’t explain why. They just feel like, if they’re making or breaking your season such that you’re going to the bottom of the list this early in the year, that shit’s already broken.
Damn, so much for winning teams avoiding criticism. Maybe next year.
I am happy that Jalen Hurts is playing tonight. First, it’s a short week. The Eagles are likely to run the ball with their RBs to give everyone else a breather. Keep the defense rested, keep Hurts safe, get through Minnesota with a close win and onto a nice ten-day break. I’m aware the Eagles can take that assumption and use it against the Vikings’ defense, which will be playing aggressively all year under Brian Flores. I am ready for Hurts to throw three bomb TDs and run in a fourth. I am still happy it’s happening tonight because I can always just go to sleep and forget about it until tomorrow.
I am happy to be playing Sean in general. I don’t think his team is any good outside of Hurts, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and mayyybe those IDPs.
Meanwhile, I feel like my team scored the most points in Week 1 because my team is the best. Lamar Jackson scored 7 FP, and my team scored the most points. The best part will be CMC and the Bucs dominating on Sunday and then Myles Garrett throwing in two sacks on Monday night just to run up the score. I’m feeling good! (My team losing by 30 confirmed)
Prediction: Doak 161 – Sean 127
Yeah, I already betting on the championship teams from last year startin 0-2. WHAT OF IT?! I’m mainly looking at the top of these lineups, seeing Patrick Mahomes @ JAX and Nick Chubb @ PIT on one side and Tua @ NE and Pierce vs. IND on the other. Tua @ NE is an early, defining moment in this season. My guess is the Pats will dismantle the deep-passing attack, mainly with overwhelming instant pressure, and the reason it will work is that it will come from three- and four-man rushes. The Pats have a fast secondary. I’m really not giving the Dolphins any credit. This microwave offense is going to have to learn to cook in a wood stove to beat the Pats at home. That means running the ball, which isn’t happening. Evan is S.O.L. because Richardson is going to get shut down by the Texans’ now-awesome defense, too. Of course, Evan has those four WRs, but only two of them have decent matchups. Evan might actually be better off throwing Rashaad Penny in the mix for Penny’s inevitable 100-yard game tonight. Why inevitable? Because Penny was a healthy scratch against the Pats. I think the Eagles were playing 4-D chess here, knowing they would need creativity to beat the Pats, knowing they can hold up against the Vikings on a short week by pounding the rock. I’m sure K.Gain’s ribs are actually hurt, but I’m also sure the Eagles were going to activate Penny for the Vikings game and start him regardless. I would bet money on it. In fact, I’m texting Spencer about it now.
The problem for Oliver is that after his big three, his team is just not very good. Right now he’s starting Shaheed, Kmet, Mixon, and Javonte. Shaheed should be solid. Kmet, gross. Mixon, fine. Javonte, not ready yet, and the ‘Ders’ front is too tough. I think you should go back to Pacheco for at least one week, even consider Kyren Williams in a game where the Rams will be playing from behind a lot.
Evan has the IDP advantage, like, big time. Ugh, I’m flipping my pick.
Prediction: Evan 146 – Oliver 134
Cameron, I hate typing your team name. It’s so hard.
Anyway, I’m expecting Josh Allen to bounce back right away and chuck a bunch of bombs in a home game vs. the Raiders on Sunday. His 40-point effort should be enough after Kirk Cousins gets sacked seven times on Thursday night. Ugh, I got caught thinking too much about the top again. Brian’s team is so bad! Herbert, Sanders, and Akers at RB, all in terrible matchups. Mike Williams and Drake London starting at WR, and looking at the bench, who do you pivot to? Maybe you just fire up your Smith-Njigba already. Let’s look at free agency, which, holy shit, how much did you fuck up your five extra draft picks if we’re trying to find free agents the second week of the season? (I get that we’re waiting on Kupp and Taylor to make this a super team in Week 6. I get it.) Deonte Harty is very interesting as a potential receipient of those Josh Allen bombs on Sunday.
Cameron’s team is just better. Cousins is bad this week, and Cameron should definitely stick with Danny Dimes against the tanking Cardinals. But it doesn’t really matter. Jacobs is getting 90% of the RB touches in LV. STA is good for 10 FP. Tee Higgins bounces back. Hockenson is Cousins’ safety valve 15 times when the Philly pass-rush gets home every single play. Tony Pollard even against a stout Jets’ D is getting 10 FP. DeVonta Smith is this weird afterthought because he’s the third best player on his own offense, but he’s arguably a top-ten WR in terms of talent and production; he’s just tiny? And Cam’s K and IDPs are rock solid. He should honestly win by 25.
I don’t know why I picked Brian beyond the Allen-Cousins thing. I want to say it’s like a no-way-he-can-be-this-bad-again thing, but he can totally be this bad again.
Prediction: Cameron 172 – Brian 111
This is going to be the closest matchup this week, and it’s going to be a rock fight. Corey and Spencer are evenly matched, and they have some pretty terrible matchups. Burrow might bounce back, but it’s going to have to be against a Baltimore defense that’s willing to mix up their looks on every down.
Lawrence is in the MVP chase, but the Chiefs have had ten days to figure out how to rock his shit, and they got a pretty good hint that the way to do that is to take away Calvin Ridley. So Spencer is kinda screwed there. And Ja’Marr Chase’s points come from Burrow, so Spencer’s kinda screwed there. At best, it’s a wash. Garrett Wilson might have literally zero catches matched up with Trevon Diggs and Zach Wilson throwing the ball. Goedert and Godwin are good.
Justin Jefferson maybe has a good matchup? It’s Darius Slay, but it’s only Darius Slay. Philly’s other DBs are either bad or hurt. The problem is Kirk having no time to throw. Jaylen Waddle has a terrible matchup in NE. McLaurin is getting shadowed by Patrick Surtain II in DEN. Lockett has to suffer not getting targets when the Seahawks’ backup tackles can’t block Hutch. Kyle Pitts maybe has a good matchup in that the Falcons will actually need to use him as a receiver if they want to keep up with Green Bay’s offense. So Corey has a slight edge.
The IDPs are pretty similar to me. Corey’s are more impressive names, but Spencer’s score just fine. Still, if I’m taking sides, I’m taking Corey’s.
Prediction: Corey 138 – Spencer 131
This is contigent upon Shelby starting Jordan Love over Dak Prescott, which I know sounds crazy now, but in three weeks we’re going to wonder how anyone ever doubted Jordan Love in this offense. It’s just such a good offense, and Jordan Love has such a fucking cannon. I’m not saying he’s better than Dak overall, but I am saying he has more arm strength and plays in a better offense, and I like that for fantasy.
Justin Fields is going to get rocked by the Bucs. Allegedly, Fields’ problem is that he takes too long to see what’s happening during the play. The key to being a good QB is seeing the play before it unfolds, and Fields always seems to see it at the same time we do. It’s too slow, and it either means it’s the wrong offense or he’s just not going to make it. Todd Bowles will hammer a nail in that coffin on Sunday.
This is a matchup of Lions RBs and potentially of Chargers RBs, as well. Shelby can’t reasonably bench either Rachaad White or Jamaal Williams for Joshua Kelley, but idk. She can clearly do whatever she wants if she can start Dak over Love. She’s probably fine benching Kelley this week. The Titans have a good run defense and they have to because they can’t defend the pass at all. Like, at all. So even if Ekeler is good to go, Kennedy doesn’t have as much of an edge as he might otherwise.
WRs: Diggs vs. Davante is fun, especially when they are playing each other in reality. Kennedy’s Zay Jones fascination is a little much for me, but he has Billy Beane’d himself into it by having zero other healthy WRs. DJ Moore should be better than Zay Jones, but he wasn’t last week. A nice thing about DJ Moore is that he doesn’t depend on Justin Fields for points. Moore will definitely get a jet sweep as the Bears look for solutions against the Bucs’ pass rush.
Kittle vs. Kelce is also fun! And with Kelce maybe hurt-ish and Kittle due for a massive game every three or four weeks, maybe the matchup hinges on this position.
If not then it’s Watt vs. Parsons. Jesus, Kennedy vs. Shelby is a great fucking matchup. The one thing Shelby needs is to find something more solid at DB. Sauce is the shit, but if the ball doesn’t come his way, he doesn’t score FP. With Dallas trying to limit turnovers and win on defense, there’s just no point throwing Sauce’s way.
Bobby Time, whichever of the Bobbies you consider Kennedy’s DX, is much more consistent than Kayvon Thibodeaux, who has upside but maybe upside isn’t what you need if you’re expecting a tight game. I might grab a Jordyn Brooks out of FA and take my safe 10 FP.
Wait holy shit, you’re benching Jordan Addison? Is it because of the Kirk having no time to throw thing? Okay, I guess that’s fine. But most weeks, Addison over Moore will probably be the way to go. But if Fields has no time to throw either… no, because Moore is getting more plays designed specifically for him, Moore gets the edge if they both have bad matchups. But Addison is going to be so open against that trash Philly secondary. Oh man. That’s tough. Ugh, I’d bench Moore. Playing against Fields, I’d bench his best WR and go with the exciting rookie on a Thursday night. Ugh, would I? I’d be too scared. Dammit.
Prediction: Shelby 145 – Kennedy 135
Look, for whatever reason, I’m going to keep touting Coleman, and I’m going to keep fading Max. Coleman is in line for a bounceback win, and Max, well, he’s a victim of it despite having a decent team. If I could rewrite the post-draft rankings, I’d probably put someone else in last place. Probably Brian. Max’s bench is disgusting, but you don’t start your bench—yes I coined that turn of phrase myself with no help. You don’t start your bench, so Max really only needs good starters if he wants to win. I just don’t think Max’s better is better than Coleman’s better. Justin Herbert is going against a terrible Titans secondary. Coleman’s starting both Falcons’ RBs if he ever checks his lineup. Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel are scoring 20 FP apiece. Aidan Hutchinson is devouring whatever second-string tackle he’s up against vs. SEA. It’s going to be so gross. Max will have a good game, minus the Big Perv regression @ PIT. It might even be enough to win, but that’s just not how I’m picking it. Keenan Allen will help neutralize whatever Coleman gets from Herbert, but Metcalf, Breece, and Pittman are likely scoring in single digits.
Prediction: Coleman 155 – Max 119
That’s it. My hot streak of getting notes done on time continues!
