Week 1 is a melee, which means the top six teams wins and the bottom six lose. I am here to deliver you a winner. This is the healthiest your team will ever be, unless you’re Brian or Kennedy. Week 1 is an important marker of the passage of time. We head into Week 1 with assumptions that are mostly based on last year or a blend of the last few years. I mean, not as Bucs fans, where the last few years are slowly erasing themselves and we get back to being the 2002 champs, the Grudens, the Raheems, the Josh Freemans, and the Jameis Winstons. I can’t express what being a Bucs fan means living this far away from Tampa. Talking to anyone this year, they’re like, “Oh man, no Brady. What’s gonna happen?” And I’m like, “I’m gonna enjoy watching Bucs games again.” Or at least watching Bucs games will feel real again, as opposed to what felt like a bunch of people dressing up as the Bucs for the entertainment of a dementia ward. Not a farce, not a parody, what’s the word? A romp? A send-up? It felt mean to Bucs fans. And I’m down with winning a Super Bowl. It was good that it was our defense beating Patrick Mahomes. That is how I remember the Super Bowl. Devin White in champagne blockers. The gravediggers.
Do I like Baker Mayfield? I don’t really care. I think he got dealt shit cards in Cleveland. He got dealt shittier cards when he was traded to the Panthers to compete with fellow top-5 pick FROM THE SAME DRAFT Sam Darnold. I think Baker led a truly memorable comeback last year, arriving to the Rams on a Tuesday and starting for them on a Thursday. For what that Rams team was, for coming in with just five games left in the season, Baker played well. I would rather have Sam Darnold, is what I’ll say. He throws with less effort required, he offers more as a runner, and he’s taller. The problem, for coaches, is he’s basically Jameis 2.0. But Baker’s fine. People are giving too much credence to the “competition” between him and Trask. It was never a competition. It was the Bucs’ new OC trying to recapture the magic of watching Geno Smith winning a QB competition in Seahawks’ camp last year—and even that was probably a farce. Baker was always the starter. Probably says more about Trask, but whatever.
The Bucs are going to be very good on defense, and they’re going to be fine on offense. The line is not good, but it’s fine. Like fine enough no one will talk shit about it. It’s not bottom-five. Well, who is bottom-five? Not the Bucs. My original point was we’re going to be great on defense and competent on offense. Probably safe on offense, but I don’t know. We have weapons. Evans and Godwin obviously, but rookie and third WR on the depth chart Trey Palmer’s thing is deep speed. It would be a crime not to take shots to him every game. Say we hit those shots half the games, and I don’t know. The NFC South is garbage. The Bucs could win it. (Side note: this talk that the Saints will run away with a weak division, like they’re so strong, is puke.)
Okay, I have one hour for us to do what we came to do. Let me tell you who to start and who’s going to win this week. In general, you start the first four or five guys you drafted, then you can get a little spicy if you have some strong gut feelings. This is to say I won’t be talking about your whole lineup, especially since I have five minutes per team.
The intrigue is at WR, but I also would replace your LBs. I don’t like Amari Cooper because he catches his passes from Big Perv. I don’t like Michael Thomas because he’s washed. I don’t like Hollywood Brown because he’s hurt and plays for the Cards and you’re already starting Conner. I love Zay Flowers. Start Zay Flowers. I think you should drop Greg Dulcich and pick up Van Jefferson, then start Jefferson over Cooper. So that’s Cooper and Thomas on the bench, Flowers and Jefferson in the lineup. Then cut your LBs and go get De’Vondre Campbell and Frankie Luvu. You’re losing this week anyway. Might as well take some swings.
Richardson over Tua in Week 1 is the right call, though I don’t expect either to deliver more than 20 FP. There’s not a lot Evan can do. His bench is so ugly, and his starters are Dameon Pierce and four stud WRs. The only move I can reasonably suggest is to replace your kicker, one week only, with Wil Lutz kicking at his new home in Denver. You’re losing anyway.
Side note: Evan and I again crossed streams building our teams because we both ended up fucking ourselves the same way: we leaned so heavy into players we love that we have no room to trade them if we need to. We’re living and dying by the sword here.
My team is perfect, and it really doesn’t matter who I start, but the intrigue for me comes from what to do with the flex spots. I’m starting Mike Evans and Jahan Dotson, no doubt. The flex decision is among four players: Hopkins, OBJ, Rhamondre, and Marvin Mims. Hopkins is old, OBJ just hurt his ankle in practice, Rhamondre plays against the Philly d-line, and Marvin Mims is a rookie. Mims is starting and returning punts and kicks, which, you wanna know who did that as a rookie for Sean Payton a few years ago, just for the sake of getting him the ball? Alvin Kamara. Yes, I’m making the comparison. In two months, we’re going to be in steadfast agreement that Marvin Mims is the best player on this offense. But will he pop right away? I don’t know. So I lean toward deferring to the future HOF’er Hopkins, but then I look at my bench one more time and think about how Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have hamstring injuries, and how Jayden Reed is going to be the #1 WR for the Packers to start his career, and how the whole receiving corps is so young that theoretically anyone could take the throne, and man, I question everything. I will just have to see who’s name is whispered on the wind on Sunday morning.
I also have the option of changing out my DB. Jamal Adams isn’t ready yet, so I went and got Packers’ nickel and returner Keisean Nixon, who might already be the best returner in the game. I debate how much value this has and still might cut him for a more traditional approach, perhaps as soon as tonight for CJGJ.
He’s kind of stuck everywhere except TE. I don’t hate the hustle with Dawson Knox. You’re hoping for a TD, and his QB throws the most TDs. I’d actually suggest Oliver pivot to Noah Gray real quick, but this note might not get out in time. The other spot I’d change is Will Anderson. He’s going to be good, but rookie edge rushers don’t have it right away. You think he’s going to sack Lamar Jackson in his first game ever? Okay, I will say that if he does, you can never drop him. He’s going to be the best DL in the league one day if that happens. But no, do drop him, slide Bosa into the DL spot—or shit, drop Bosa, too—and go get one of the LBs I told Sean to get, add Eric Kendricks to that short list, and also consider either Jon Allen or Quinnen Williams.
Two questions: Ken Walker or Tyler Allgeier? Jordan Poyer or a free agent LB? I like Ken Walker a lot, but it seems like Seattle is lukewarm on him after drafting Zach Charbonnet in the second round. People are saying Charbonnet will take Walker’s job. The safe stance is to assume they will split work. Meanwhile, Bijan has already taken Allgeier’s job, but Atlanta is going to lead the league in rushing attempts, yards, and probably TDs. So in theory, Bijan and Allgeier could both by top-24 RBs, which makes them both startable. Ken Walker could be a top-24 RB, or he could be outside the top 30 if the Seahawks turn to Charbonnet.
Jordan Poyer is not the solid fantasy option he used to be, but if it’s just one week, I can’t argue against him. With Tremaine gone, more tackles are available and players are more likely to break into Poyer’s part of the field. Poyer could easily get a pick and make starting him worth it. But there’s a relatively low floor if he doesn’t at least knock down a pass. In a melee, where I just want to break 150, I want a LB who offers that 10-tackle security. I want De’Vondre Campbell.
I love the Danny Dimes confidence. Dallas is objectively a better defense than the Rams. Seattle objectively has better weapons than the Giants. But you’re betting on the Giants offense being something we don’t recognize from last year. You’re betting on the professional wrestling, narrative-driven NFL to open up its Sunday Night series with the Cowboys travelling to New York as a 3-point favorite, to get upset on national television. No notes from me on the rest of your lineup. It’s as good as it gets.
Happy birthday! Have a win. The only note I have is to bench Jordan Addison against the Bucs and start Jamaal Williams for as many of these first three games as you can. I want so badly to start Jordan Love over Dak, but with the Packers’ WRs banged up, this isn’t the week to pull that trigger.
Punt.
We’ve already discussed that Spencer is leaving his lineup as is in order to keep two extra players through the weekend, a move I not only support but informed Spencer was possible on our platform. It is what it is. Spencer is winning anyway.
Sit Breece Hall for either Dillon or McKinnon. I really believe McKinnon is going to be a huge part of the Chiefs’ pivot from Kelce. But I also like Dillon to come out rocking after a weak 2022 and the attempted trade for Jonathan Taylor. I believe Dillon is in a contract year? Fire him up all season long until Breece actually shows up.
Go back in time and draft Ja’Marr Chase because the Bucs are shutting Justin Jefferson down this weekend. I’d also bench Najee for Dalvin. I want to see what the Bills’ defense is about this year before automatically treating them like a top-5 defense again. I don’t believe Najee will lose his job, but I do believe the 49ers’ defense is designed to stop the run.
It’s too soon to start thinking about next year, only because nobody will trade you draft picks until they’re pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot. So you’re kind of hoping someone goes 5-0 but also needs something? Like they lucked into 5-0. So they want Ekeler. Or they’re 5-0 but their QB just went down, so you get your money back for Fields. But who you start this week is irrelevant. It’s just a video game. There is no Roy. We’re all Morty.
Okay, so if you weren’t clocking it, here’s the recap:
Wins
Doak (new high score)
Cameron
Spencer
Coleman
Shelby
Wild Card
Oliver or Corey
Losses
Sean
Evan
Kennedy
Max
Brian (lowest score)
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