I don’t have a cold open for you. The draft was fun. I probably had too much pre-fab espresso martini. I don’t think I’ll take enough cheap shots in this note to satisfy Cameron’s taste for blood. I genuinely think this was our best draft in terms of getting even teams and not having someone look like a total moron in real-time or in the aftermath. I present these rankings with limited conviction. I also think the Texans are going to be pretty good this year, so take my opinions with that size grain of salt. Or lean into self-consciousness, question your decisions, and drop some of your players before they even play. They might suck.
Disclaimer: these aren’t right-now rankings. This is where I think people will finish the season. Last year I correctly picked Sean and Evan to finish 1-2, respectively. So basically the following is fact.
Best Picks: Saquon 1.03, Big Dill 8.10
Worst Pick: Big Perv 3.10
Week 1 Lineup
QB Big Perv
RB Saquon
WR DK Metcalf
WR Keenan Allen
TE David Njoku
FX Breece Hall?
FX Michael Pittman
K Bass
DL Highsmith
LB Zaire Franklin
DB Jalen Pitre
DX Christian Wilkins
BN Big Dill
BN Jerick McKinnon
BN Darnell Mooney
BN Adam Thielen
BN Matt Stafford
BN Dalton Schultz
That is a baaaad bench.
I’m buying the comparison between Big Perv and Tiger Woods, regarding what happens to your psyche when your personal demons become public and not in like a struggling to be a better person way but in like an “I’m above consequences” kinda way. What it does is robs a high-caliber athlete of the ability to enter the zone. It’s easy to ignore vague trash talk. You suck, you’re fat, I’ll do unmentionable things to your family members, etc. It hits different when they find the thing that actually bothers you. Even you thinking they’re thinking it can be enough. In short, I think his head is fucked. And a fucked head makes all of your decisions take longer. Combine that with an offense that’s below league-average in passing volume, and you have a recipe for fantasy blegh. Any hope for Big Perv to do number in fantasy is that he’s just too fucking stupid and evil to give a shit. Pre-snap, the defensive end says, “Deshaun gotta get outta here and hump a table while the masseuse start crying,” and B.P. fires back something like, “Yeah, with your momma under me,” and proceeds to run in a TD from 30 yards out.
(The funniest part was definitely everyone but Max talking about how they wouldn’t draft Big Perv at all, and then Max tilting for him basically as soon as possible. It would be a great redemption story for Max if Big Perv turned out to be a good QB, but if there’s any NFL player who doesn’t deserve a redemption arc…)
Saquon Barkley at 1.03 is such a good fucking pick because Saquon Barkley would be Christian McCaffrey if he’d had CMC’s coaches or even coaches who didn’t totally fucking suck. Like totally fucking suck. Brian Daboll isn’t just the best coach Saquon has ever had; he’s a top-five offensive mind in the league.
Breece is a special talent, coming back from an ACL tear, sharing time with a versatile veteran, in an offense where Randall Cobb is the starting slot. Big Dill is a snow plow, with emphasis his useful work coming in winter time. McKinnon is just Max hoping lightning strikes twice.
DK Metcalf is a unicorn because he’s a beautiful, long, lean, fast, and allegedly like 75% of his diet is candy. Keenan Allen is a HOF WR. Michael Pittman is a great player playing with a rookie QB in an offense that won’t throw a lot. To bank on Pittman is to bank on RPO slants that break loose for full-field scores. Because the Colts aren’t throwing at the goal line. Mooney and Thielen are deeply unserious options at WR. Mooney is going to lose his job to Chase Claypool. Thielen has looked slow in preseason. In preseason.
The bright side is Max has four or five bench spots he can turnover as good undrafted players emerge in these early weeks.
I like the Browns QB-TE stack. It seems like there’s a real connection there. Obviously you can have the benefit of the high-scoring TE without the stack.
Tyler Bass is fine.
That is one hipster-ass defensive group. All that’s missing is Frankie Luvu.
I have Max finishing last, but I don’t expect him to be an easy out. I actually see him starting hot and then cooling way off with a couple injuries. He probably won’t finish at the bottom of the standings but will lose all of his postseason games.
Best Pick: Zay Flowers 7.12
Worst Pick: back-to-back Cardinals
Week 1 Lineup
QB Hurts
RB Henry
WR Cooper
WR Flowers
TE Chig
FX Conner
FX Mattison
K Myers
DL Hunter
LB Jewell
DB Sneed (hurt)
DX TJ Edwards
BN Charbonnet
BN Hollywood
BN Michael Thomas
BN Bigsby
BN Greg Dulcich
BN Zack Moss
IR Jeff Wilson
Hurts will be worse this year than he was last year. The league will have a better idea of how to defend this offense, but it won’t be enough to knock them out of the top ten. You can understand why Sean was trying to trade Hurts before the draft and also why he had to hang onto him. Hurts was better than every QB available except for Allen, and Sean had no shot at Allen.
Derrick Henry is my favorite RB. He is a surreal combination of size, speed, and skill. The Titans are making him a larger part of the passing game, as a receiver and as a fucking passer. If the Titans would get their fucking shit together at any other position on offense, Henry could score 30 TDs in a season. Alas, they suck. And they overuse Henry. History suggests he will miss at least a third of this season.
James Conner has a good chance to lead the league in touches. The Cardinals need to protect their shitty QBs. The shitty QBs will rely on checkdowns to move the ball. I’m guessing ten carries in the first half and ten targets (most of them catches) in the second.
Alexander Mattison is the least interesting player in fantasy, but the narrative surrounding him might be important to the future of the sport, specific to the monetary value of RBs. The better Mattison does as a bell-cow back while ranking 30th in pay at the position, the more the league justifies disrespecting superstar workhorses like Taylor, Saquon, and Jacobs. Mattison didn’t do anything wrong, but I hope for everyone’s sake that he and all of the Vikings’ RBs and subsequently the whole Vikings team is hot garbage this year. (No relation to me passing up Justin Jefferson, no way, never.)
Zach Charbonnet could easily get more total touches than Ken Walker, but Walker would probably still have more yards and TDs.
Tank Bigsby is expected to vulture first downs and touchdowns from Travis Etienne, whatever that’s worth. If Etienne goes down, Bigsby would become a top-15 RB.
Amari Cooper was the ninth best WR in fantasy last year. When Amari Cooper was drafted to the Raiders ten years ago, everyone thought he was an instant Hall-of-Famer. He has been through a bunch of bullshit. He’s probably a steal.
The rest of Sean’s WRs are risky. Hollywood doesn’t have a QB, Zay Flowers is in a crowded receiver room, and every Saints beat writer has made some reference to Michael Thomas still being good but not being the guy we’re used to. Yikes.
Chig and Dulcich make for a fun TE competition. They’re both godawful blockers, so their teams use them mostly as receivers. It is the Juwan Johnson path to big plays and TDs. One of them will end up being a dude, or Sean can go get Cardinals TE Trey McBride, who might actually lead the Cardinals in catches.
Sean entered the draft down three picks, so he didn’t draft any of those IDPs. He even spent one too many picks on non-IDPs, so he could’ve gotten something more valuable, including Matt Judon and/or Shaq Leonard.
Overall just a gross team. Probably should be last, but I don’t want to motivate these misfits.
Best Picks: Gibbs 2.07, Watt 5.06, White 6.07, Addison 7.06
Worst Pick: Dak 3.06
QB Dak
RB Gibbs
WR Diggs
WR Moore
TE Kittle
FX Chaad
FX Addison
K Sanders
DL Watt
LB White
DB Sauce
DX Thibs
BN Jordan Love
BN Jamaal
BN QJ
BN Hyatt
BN Zeke
BN Chase Brown?
Dak and Love have a lot in common. They excel at keeping the trains running on time. They are assumed to be mobile, and while they can move around okay, they are definitively not fast. They can uncork a deep ball on par with all but the elites. Their offenses marry old school and new school concepts, breeding beautiful efficiency, somehow always getting above-average line play even from backups and band-aids. They are boring as hell and their collective ceiling is QB10. They are Kirk Cousins with better legs.
Shelby makes up for boring QBs with insanely cool RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs and Rachaad White both came out of college with three-down skill sets, speed, cool hair, sick names… and they benefit—yes, benefit—from unsexy powerbacks taking reps from them throughout the year. If D’Andre Swift had one more rushing attempt in 2022, he would have been second in qualified yards per carry among RBs and he did qualify at eighth in yards per reception among RBs. Oh shit: David Montgomery was third in yards per reception! Okay, so maybe Gibbs has somebody truly sharing the whole job, but Detroit RBs combined for over 500 touches last year. Split that two ways, and Gibbs would still be top-20 in overall volume, getting probably top-10 efficiency if Swift’s numbers mean anything. If Gibbs just outplays Montgomery to the tune of earning a 300:200 split, Gibbs would be a top-five RB for the season.
In seven games as a starter for the Bucs, Rachaad White averaged 16 touches per game; during that same stretch, Lenny was averaging 16 touches per game. Okay, this argument is actually not going where we want it to go because the Bucs are bringing in a different offense. So let’s look at Seattle’s numbers from last year: 449 combined touches for RBs with RBs who were either good at running the ball or good at catching the ball, with no overlap. Fuck. Okay, this just goes to show that the Jahmyr Gibbs argument has legs. The argument for Chaad is just that 16 touches per game is top-20 volume.
Jamaal Williams was great last year and will be great for the first three games of this season.
I see what people see in Zeke. I’m just so biased because I need Rhamondre Stevenson to be a legit starting RB.
Shelby will drop Chase Brown right before or right after the Week 1 games.
I, too, like rookie WRs in the modern NFL. Jordan Addison is my favorite to lead all rookie WRs in fantasy points. I fear QJ and Hyatt might be too one-dimensional right now to crack their team’s starting lineups. QJ kind of can’t catch, and Hyatt is in the league’s most crowded receiver room, granted it’s crowded because no one is clearly better than anyone else. You have to hang on for a month to see what happens, which is pretty easy since bye weeks start Week 5.
Diggs should remain a top-five WR, and DJ Moore was acquired by the Bears in an attempt to capture the same magic that Diggs brought to Buffalo. I’ll get to Fields later, but what this means for Moore is volume.
I removed Kittle from my draft sheet so long ago that when I was ranking TEs for this note, I forgot about him. It’s appropriate for the most disrespected TE of this fantasy offseason. Kittle is always a good bet to lead—yes, lead—TEs in scoring, and yet he’s treated like overpriced Dallas Goedert.
Jason Sanders excels at long FGs, attached to supposed top-10 offense. He’s a last-round pick, so it doesn’t matter if he’s bad. There are twenty others!
By far the coolest group of IDPs, and my favorite to lead our league in scoring. Sauce doesn’t actually score fantasy points since teams stopped throwing his way, but I think the Bills will challenge him Week 1 and give him scoring opportunities. Generally speaking, we don’t like shutdown corners in fantasy because all of our fantasy settings reward proximity to the ball. My dream is to get fantasy points from some metric like passer-rating-against, but alas.
My low ranking of Shelby’s team is a bet against boring quarterbacks. It’s also a testament of the strength of our league this year. This was our most competitive draft. Shelby has a lot of unproven players, rookies and guys changing teams and whatever Zeke is, so I’m fully ready to re-rank her in the top five after a few weeks of seeing this thing in action.
Best Picks: trading 2.12 for Kelce, DMG 6.12, Bobby Time 10-11 turn
Worst Picks: trading away 1.01, ETN 2.04, JuJu 8.12, Lazard 12.12
QB Fields
RB Ekeler
WR Adams
WR Watson
TE Kelce
FX ETN
FX DMG
K Gag Joseph
DL Parsons
LB Okereke
DB Dugger
DX Wagner
BN Jeudy (hurt)
BN ZayJ
BN JuJu
BN Kendre
BN Stroud
BN Lazard
I like the bet on Justin Fields the way I like that every actor on the Bear is actually from Chicago, but when you actually have to sit and decide where Fields will finish in fantasy points, I can’t get him higher than sixth. Sixth is enough to make the playoffs, but not when the rest of your roster looks like this.
The draft just didn’t fall Kennedy’s way after he traded out of the top spot, starting with the Ekeler pick seemingly nobody wanted to make. The reach for Etienne only compounds what are sure to be RB woes down the road. Davante Adams is approaching the age cliff. Christian Watson might be the third best receiver on his own team. In fact, most of Kennedy’s receivers could become third. Jeudy’s losing ground in a new offense by starting the year hurt. JuJu has said that his knee is, quote, ”a mess,” and the Pats have a bunch of young talent they’d like to develop. Zay Jones has been bumped to maybe fourth in targets behind Ridley, Kirk, and Engram, not to mention the RBs in Jacksonville. Allen Lazard? He was on his way to getting pushed to third behind Watson and Doubs on Green Bay’s depth chart.
Right now, Kennedy has a good enough starting lineup that I initially ranked him as a playoff team, but the more I thought fourth-dimensionally, the more I saw time just ravaging this team. Kennedy’s saving grace is the outside chance that Fields, Ekeler, Adams, Kelce, and Parsons lead their respective positions in points this year. For Fields that’s probably a 1% of happening, but the others are pretty realistic. On that timeline, Kennedy is a playoff team and a championship contender. But here on solid ground, where we have age cliffs and injury risks, Kennedy will be lucky to make it through the season without starting some total fucking weirdos while he’s fighting to avoid last place.
Best Pick: starting with 4 WRs, Tua 13.11
Worst Pick: drafting two Eagles RBs, three 49ers IDPs
QB Anthony Richardson
RB Pierce
WR AJB
WR Lamb
TE Engram
FX Sun God
FX Pickens
K Elliot
DL N. Bosa
LB Reddick
DB Hufanga
DX Greenlaw
BN Swift
BN Penny
BN Tua
BN an Evan
BN LaPorta
When you can draft people with your name, you gotta do it. I bet Evan was sad to watch McPherson to go off the board in the early ninth round. Does Mike Evans qualify? It’s different, right?
Evan might start the season with Tua, but I wouldn’t advise it. The Chargers defense actually provided the blueprint for stopping Miami’s offense last season. I’m not going to pretend I know exactly how they did it, but that game was a big reason Miami was insistent on being better at running the ball this year. Basically what they did was disrupt the offense’s timing and geometry in a way that really fucks with Tua the same way it really fucked with Jared Goff when defenses “figured out” McVay’s offense. So it needs to be AR right out of the gate. I am glad I didn’t have to decide whether or where to draft Richardson because I believe he will score 25 total TDs this season and make his way into the top 10 QBs by the end of the year. I also think he’ll have a handful of total shitshows that tank your whole week, and he won’t put together three straight weeks of solid play in our playoffs. Evan can’t do anything about it unless he wants to trade for an elite QB before the deadline, which again, I don’t advise.
Boy you better hope Dameon Pierce is the best RB in the league because you’re not getting a consistent starter out of either Swift or Penny. I understand the logic of drafting two RBs on a run-first team, especially when they’re both talented players. I don’t think a starter naturally emerges. I think the Eagles ideally use all four RBs in creative ways and try to keep everybody healthy. I think if we could divine when and how they use these guys, we should be placing big, big bets and never going to work again.
The four WR start is so beautiful I want to cry. And it’s four really good WRs: three guys competing to be the overall WR1 and another threatening to lead the league in TDs.
Evan Engram is great. Sam LaPorta is a fine flier.
The IDP group is a group of good individual defensive players, so in theory, it’s a good IDP group. But no, I believe starting three players from one defense limits your scoring most weeks. There are only 50-60 tackles to be divided among 15 players. You do, however, increase your chance of getting turnovers. Hmm. I’m interested. I want you to do it so I can see where it goes without having to do independent research on the subject.
Overall, it’s not enough to make the playoffs. A top-10 QB and an early keeper in AR is cool, even if it precludes you from keeping Pickens a second year. But it’s not enough to hang with the elite QBs, not when you’re desperately thin at RB and kind of fucked if one WR misses significant time.
I’m literally never going to pick Evan to win this league no matter how well he drafts. He drafted literally the best team last year and I still ranked him second just to stick it to him. So you better believe if he comes with this weak shit at QB and RB that I’m leaving him out of the playoffs.
Best Picks: Kyle Pitts 4.11, Aaron Donald 11.02, TreyPalm 14.11
Worst Pick: not Ja’Marr Chase 1.02, Evan McPherson 9.02
QB Burrow
RB Najee
WR Jefferson
WR Waddle
TE Pitts
FX Lockett
FX McLaurin (hurt)
K McPherson
DL Donald
LB Warner
DB Minkah
DX Diggs
BN Dalvin Cook
BN Aaron Rodgers
BN Trey Palmer
BN Singletary
BN Boyd
BN Otton
It was very difficult to exclude this team from the playoffs when Joe Burrow has a solid chance of winning MVP and leading all players in fantasy points. It ended up coming down to a tiebreaker between (spoiler) Burrow and Mahomes. By the end of the season, Corey is going to have maybe the most intimidating group of receivers (TE included), but will he have a healthy starting RB by then? I don’t think Najee will lose his job to Jaylen Warren, but I don’t dismiss the idea. Warren runs harder. He’s been consistently eating more and more into Najee’s workload. Dalvin Cook is getting old, at least his body is. He’s had pretty significant injuries these past few years. It’s possible this is why the Vikings cut him and only two teams were competing for his services at his price tag. In fact, Dalvin didn’t even get the contract he wanted. He wanted a three-year deal. The Jets said here’s one year where you have to earn half of your paycheck through incentives you’re unlikely to reach splitting time with Breece Hall.
But these receivers and Burrow will win Corey weeks on their own, like there will be multiple weeks where those five players combined for 120 points and the RB and IDPs just need to chip in like five apiece.
Aaron Donald and Minkah Fitzpatrick are top-five at their position, and Fred Warner is technically the best LB in the league, only he’s so good that teams avoid him, so he ends up not scoring as many fantasy points as other star LBs. Trevon Diggs is maybe the league’s highest paid corner, but similar to Warner and other coverage aces, teams avoid him and so his brand of greatness doesn’t translate to points in our league.
And the best nickname I’ve stumbled upon in my life: TreyPalm! I haven’t heard anyone calling him this, but it’s pretty low-hanging fruit, so it’s gotta be out there. Also, napalm isn’t exactly explosive; it’s just sticky and destructive. Which, I mean, sticky hands? Never stops burning people? TreyPalm!
Cade Otton is a sneaky pick at TE, but ideally for Corey, dude gets zero time in this lineup. Because it’s finally Pitts szn. The Falcons are done pretending he’s a TE. He’ll still line up across from LBs, but not to block. In a weird quirk of the Falcons offense, Pitts will see his playing time go down and his production go up.
I’ll give the Burrow-Boyd stack some credit for frugality or whatever. It will be clutch when bye weeks come.
Devin Singletary could be a huge part of Houston’s offense. The Texans invested heavily in offensive line and are installing the Shanahan offense. The only issue is injuries along the line. They’ve already lost their starting guard for the year and their starting center for a few games. If you believe in the Shanahan offense, you believe in backup RBs becoming significant fantasy scorers for a solid chunk of the season.
There’s really no good reason for Corey to miss the playoffs. One of the six teams above him should be prepared to play for the number one pick this winter.
Best Picks: keeping Mahomes, trading Kelce for 2.12, Javonte 5.09, Diontae 7.09, Kyler 15.09
Worst pick: J. Bosa 8.04
QB Mahomes
RB Chubb
WR Diontae
WR Aiyuk
TE Kmet
FX Mixon*
FX Javonte
K Koo
DL Bosa
LB Leonard
DB I. Simmons
DX Will Anderson
BN Pacheco
BN Bateman
BN Sutton
BN Nico Collins
BN Tyjae Spears
BN Dawson Knox
IR Kyler Murray
This team is built on a foundation of Mahomes and three star RBs. Even Pacheco could stick as the Chiefs starter and be a star in his own right. The receivers, frankly, suck out loud. Aiyuk overachieved last year, and while Diontae underachieved, his offense can only improve so much. Neither of these guys is finishing inside the top 15 WRs. However, all of Oliver’s WRs could finish between 20th and 30th in WR scoring, which is good enough if Mahomes and the RBs do their jobs.
I do have to mention that Oliver played the depth chart game and got maybe the top target for five different teams; it’s just those teams are the Steelers, 49ers, Texans, Broncos, and Ravens—and the odds Bateman leads the Ravens in targets are lowwww. But so except for maybe the Broncos, those are run-heavy teams. The Steelers could theoretically flip to pass-heavy based on their skill players, but their offensive line can’t really handle that switch. So even the top targets are only getting like 120 targets, far below the 150 that top-10 WRs draw.
Sadly. Oliver also has the worst TE and the worst IDPs. His IDPs have juice, but they have warts. Shaq Leonard might never be healthy again. Will Anderson will be good, but rookie edge rushers don’t do shit their first couple months in the league. Joey Bosa is a perennial disappointment in fantasy and also seems never healthy. Isaiah Simmons is intriguing but not enough for me to start him Week 1.
If Kyler Murray plays this year, he becomes a late keeper. I think that’s how the rule is written. I don’t believe drafting a player is enough to qualify. The way the rule has been written before, a player has to be healthy when you add them to your team, or they have to be active for an NFL team sometime between you adding them and the season ending. That’s my understanding. Semantics aside, this could be a much better pick than it appears right now. If the Cardinals are as bad as they are supposed to be, they will get the number one pick in next year’s draft and trade Kyler Murray to the highest bidder. Note: the Cardinals have two bites at the #1 pick apple because they also the Texans 2024 1st. Note some more: the Cardinals are under investigation for breaking leagues rules that could cost them their first pick, which is just so Oliver’s dream of his role in Mortydome.
I think Oliver will plays this season how he plays every season. He will do his best to win, but he won’t expect to win, and he already has a threshold of when he’ll embrace the tank. Last year, it was when he was 1-5 or 2-5, and he said that if he lost another game, he was going to sell off his best players before they got hurt. Then Justin Fields happened, and Oliver went on a tear and—I’ll keep saying it until I’m dead—should have won the championship. He should have won the whole thing, and now who knows. Maybe we’ll all be dead before it happens.
Best Pick: Bijan 1.08, Bolton 6.05, Hutch 8.05, Mostert 14.05
Worst Pick: trading his 5th for Goedert last year
QB Herbert
RB Bijan
WR Olave
WR Deebo
TE Freiermuth
FX Dobbins
FX Walker
K Butker
DL Hutch
LB Bolton
DB Budda
DX Poyer
BN Mostert
BN Mayer
BN Allgeier
BN Mingo
BN Chark
BN Rashee Rice
Bijan… and Mostert… Bijan… Bijanaise, a combination of Bijan, Mostert, and Mayer? … hmm… it’ll come. Bijan Mostert on a bed of Mingo Rice. Olave has kind of an exotic fruit name to it. Can’t remember if I ate lunch.
Coleman makes the playoffs every year now, so regardless of what his team is made of, or how good it all sounds rolled up in a tortilla, I have to put him in the playoff pack in this note. So let’s reverse-engineer how it happens.
Justin Herbert splits the difference between his epic 2021 and his forgettable, broken-ribbed 2022. He scores (500 + 350)/2 = 425 FP, good for fifth among QBs, slotting Coleman perfectly at fifth in our standings.
Bijan Robinson wins rookie of the year, so I imagine he’s in spitting distance of the top ten RBs. Walker leads the league in explosive runs. JK Dobbins has as many touches this year as his first two seasons combined. Chris Olave outplays his rare rookie season. Deebo plays a full season—this is key since Coleman has very little cooking behind these two WRs, waiting until the final round to take Mingo and then picking up Chark and Rice in free agency. The Chark-Mingo hedge is just more evidence Coleman is a fantasy savant. One of those dudes is racking up a thousand receiving yards this year.
The periphery is pretty sexy. Butker always solid. Bolton becoming a household name. Budda way better in real life than he’s been in fantasy but still makes you feel good. Aidan Hutchinson breaks into the Exciting Whites varietal with double-digits sacks and probably a bunch of other money stats. Jordan Poyer… gets replaced, but hey he was something once!
Finally, TE: Freiermuth is never disappointing but never scoring more than 15 FP, BUT if Michael Mayer is used primarily as a receiver, which would make sense given how the Raiders set up their TE room, he should retake his throne as the top TE in his draft class. Kincaid, Musgrave, and LaPorta are generating more buzz because of their speed, but Mayer actually plays TE… You know, I tried to continue this argument, and it just didn’t play. Even five years ago, Mayer would have easily led this group in playing time, but in the modern NFL, these smaller, faster TEs are being drafted to help teams in the receiving game. Whereas teams used to spend two or three years developing TEs as blockers, we’re going to start to see them save time and money by deploying them as receivers and getting them blocking nickelbacks and off-ball linebackers instead of defensive ends. I still like Mayer over Freiermuth but maybe not over the three rookie TEs who don’t have a solid veteran playing in front of them—Mayer is technically behind Austin Hooper on the depth chart, though this Raiders team will probably play two TEs 70% of the time.
Handcuffing is a fantasy strategy that a boring color analyst would call “much-maligned.” Every year there are backfields worth monopolizing, and they aren’t the ones with a clear starter and backup. They are the backfields where the RBs are combining for over 500 touches, and Atlanta is one of those backfields. (The others last year were Dallas, Detroit, San Francisco, and Washington, so don’t go crazy chasing this stat; those backfields are locked up. Green Bay and Houston could join the list, but those backfields are locked up, too. Even dark horse New England has both backs taken in our league… Wait, I’m receiving word that actually Dallas is not locked up and that you just have to be comfortable with a 5’5” 180 lb. RB making it through enough games that you actually get to use him during a bye week down the road.) Anyway, I want to shine the spotlight on Coleman locking up the Falcons’ backfield because it’s very possible that each of Bijan and Allgeier will have 1,000+ yards from scrimmage and close to double-digit TDs this season. The one wrench in this would be how much they plan to use Ridder as a runner. I believe Ridder has a faster 40-time than Allgeier, and Marcus Mariota had 85 carries last year (RBs still combined for over 500 touches, so it might be moot).
I need to eat something.
Best Pick: keeping GW late, the Lawrence-Ridley stack, Gabe 8.09, Skyy 11.04
Worst Pick: Roschon Johnson 7.04, Tank Dell 10.09
QB Lawrence
RB Aaron Jones
WR Ja’Marr
WR Garrett Wilson
TE Goedert
FX Ridley
FX Godwin
K McManus
DL Shaq Barrett
LB Oluokun
DB Chinn
DX Tremaine
BN James Cook
BN Gabe Davis
BN Toney
BN Skyy
BN Roschon
BN Kincaid
(Spencer has to cut two players; my bets are extra WRs Doubs and Dell, unless Toney gets ruled out Week 1 and can go to Spe’s IR, then it’s just Doubs)
So Spencer has decided to go as the Jags go this season, which is a good bet as the Jags are going to win their division, with the Trevor-Ridley stack leading them to most of their wins. This team will spread the ball around and run the ball more than people probably anticipate, but it’s all predicated on an elite QB connecting with an elite WR. I don’t think Ridley ends up scoring enough TDs to be a fantasy mega-star, but I do think he leads the Jags in catches and yards and first downs (while Christian Kirk leads in TDs but has a major drop-off in yards and first downs, to the tune of like 300 yards below whatever he had last year, as Ridley becomes the chain mover.)
Whatever you think of Evan’s group of stud WRs, you have to think Spencer’s one-ups it, right? Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, Calvin Ridley alone are three of the best ten receivers under 30, and each of them is playing with an elite QB. He’s got Gabe Davis attached to Josh Allen, Toney/Skyy catching passes from Mahomes, and whatever you think of Baker Mayfield, he’s a former Heisman winner and number-one-overall pick, so Chris Godwin’s not doing too bad in the QB department, either.
Man, I know I said Spencer should cut Tank Dell (though I did it in parentheses, so did I want you to hear me?), but Tank Dell might just become the Texans’ top WR, and he might only take a month to do it. Doubs has to go, but you gotta do whatever you can to see what Tank is over the first month of the season. (He is 5’8” 160 lbs. which is the whole reason nobody thinks he’s a legitimate every-down WR. He’s pegged for a Tavon Austin type but he plays like he’s a normal-sized WR. Bring on the short kings! I like Tank Dell in Houston and I like Deuce Vaughn in Dallas! Hell, let’s give Tutu Atwell another chance! Football is only a big man’s game as long as the rules allow hitting, which is growing more and more quickly to not be the case!)
Spencer also has a top-five TE in Dallas Goedert, and who knows what Dalton Kincaid is. In my mind, he’s a slot receiver. Not a move TE but just a plain old slot receiver standing 6’4” 246 but running faster than 33-yo Cole Beasley was for this team when they made it to the conference championship. Running faster than Jamison Crowder did. I mean, a 4.68 forty time doesn’t grab your attention, but that’s fucking fast! He’s got 45 pounds on the average nickelback. He can just throw that guy away five yards from the line of scrimmage, catch a flare, and pick up a first down super simple. Football is easy!
I love getting the kicker for a good offense. The only issue I have with McManus specifically is that the Jags will probably go for it on fourth down and go for two rather than “laying up” for the points. That’s just the vibe I get. Doesn’t really mean anything. I’d prefer a kicker on, let’s say, a more predictable team.
Oluokun led the league in tackles with over 180. Sick. Shaq Barrett obviously has my support. Jeremy Chinn is one of the most versatile defenders and finally gets a genius defensive coordinator to unlock him. Tremaine Edmunds, for how good he is, never put it together in fantasy, but now he plays in the middle of a Cover 2 defense and should rack up tackles. If the Bears’ defense takes the leap that it’s supposed to, Tremaine should be in on a bunch of turnovers, as well.
The weakness of this team is the RBs, but it’s a relative weakness. Like I was saying with Corey’s WRs, the rest of Spencer’s offense is so good that you don’t really need RBs to win your weeks. You would probably feel more comfortable if your third RB was more proven than Bears’ rookie (and maybe fourth-stringer?) Roschon Johnson. RBs still available at that pick: AJ Dillon (to pair with Jones), both ‘Ders RBs, four rookie RBs drafted ahead of Johnson, and all of Miami’s potential starters. I see the upside with Johnson; I just don’t see how you feel comfortable actually playing him if Jones and Cook are unavailable. Hopefully we never find out.
Best Picks: Dimes 5.07, Maxx 6.06, Cooks 8.06, Carlson 11.07, K. Gain 14.06, Juwan 15.07, Geno 16.06
Worst Picks: STA 1.07, Jameson 10.06
QB Dimes
RB Jacobs
WR STA (MIA)
WR DeVonta
TE Hockenson
FX Pollard
FX Higgins
K Carlson
DL Maxx
LB Mosley
DB Brisker
DX Logan Wilson
BN Cooks
BN Achane
BN K. Gain
BN Juwan
BN Geno
BN Jameson (SUS)
Josh Jacobs opting in was huge. It was really never in doubt, but there was a time when we didn’t know. Cameron kind of took his RB spot for granted after his keepers, though. Yeah, Jacobs scored the most points last year and Pollard is a strong candidate to do it this year, but they’re still RBs. You still have to protect the investment by getting a little insurance. I really like De’Von Achane. He can burst through the hole and house it any given play, but he’s small, and he plays in an offense where they just let the RB get decked without warning 20 times a game. It's no wonder their RBs are always hurt. Achane is already hurt! So fuck that. I understand why Miami’s first RB was like the 100th player off the board. Kenny Gainwell doesn’t make me much more excited. I do buy the narrative that the Eagles will lean on him early in the year because he knows the offense inside-out and is much better than Boston Scott. But eventually, it’s not even that Swift or Penny will take over; it’s that nobody will. They’re all getting 120 touches and one or two games where they’re “the guy,” and we’ll never know who or when.
But on the bright side you never need to flex them because if it’s not Pollard, it’s Cooks, and if it’s not Cooks, it’s eventually Jameson, and if it’s not—wait, no, you’re out of players. Why are you ranked so high?
It’s because of my irrational confidence in Danny Dimes, tied to my overestimation of Darren Waller as a fantasy player this season. I have to rethink everything. But no, it’s too late now. Too late to rewrite the note, too late to move Darren Waller for anything of value. I just have to go all-in and be a Giants fan. No more Baker, no more Lamar. I’m a Dimer now. Dimes for life.
But actually, Dimes for life. He is going to rush for 700 yards again, only this year he’s going to throw for over 4,000. Now, he’ll be the worst of three QBs doing so, but that’s why Cameron’s only projected to finish third in Mortydome.
The WRs are great. I’m not going to waste time on the WRs.
Let’s talk about some under-the-radar IDP excellence here. Maxx Crosby deserved to be taken early, so much so that the sixth round feels like a steal. CJ Mosley is going on like ten seasons of being good for ten tackles a game. Logan Wilson makes like 10 million dollars per year now, maybe more. And Jaquan Brisker is going to the Pro Bowl this year. Fucking Dan Carlson is the second best kicker in the league. He’s automatic from inside 60 yards, and he kicks in a dome more than half the year!
Cameron is a killer. He shows up every year, ho hum, drafting a mid team that ends up setting another scoring record. Well I’m not taking the bait this year. This is a playoff team, a championship contender, no notes, don’t even bother making a roster move this season. Just cruise to the playoffs and at least win your money back.
Best Pick: Josh Allen 1.05, JSN 5.05, Derwin 7.05, ‘Ders 8.08 & 9.09, Herbert 9.05, Young 10.08, Burns 13.10, Judon 15.05, Jameis 16.08
Worst Pick: not trading/consolidating picks
QB Josh Allen
RB Akers
WR London
WR Mike Williams
TE Andrews
FX Sanders
FX Gibson
K Gano (soon)
DL Burns
LB Judon
DB Derwin
DX Queen
BN Kupp (hurt)
BN JSN (hurt)
BN Brian Robinson
BN Bryce Young
BN Treylon Burks
BN Elijah Moore
IR Jonathan Taylor
(Brian has to cut three players. I’m guessing the three extra RBs: Damien Harris, Samaje Perine, and Jaylen Warren. Oliver made a good point that if you really want one of them, you could throw a last-round pick Brian’s way. Reminder for people trading picks before the season even starts: Round 16 is the last round.)
If you have the best QB, you should make the championship game. I came into the season with this assertion, and so assert I must. Josh Allen’s stats last year… before injuring his throwing elbow and playing every game anyway, he was on pace for over 5,000 yards and 50 TDs. FIFTY.
…
FIFTY.
I can’t believe Brian just kept drafting RBs, but I also can. He gets to sit on them until September 11. That’s plenty of time for a starter to go down, possibly change your mind about who you drop in order to set a Week 1 lineup—OR, in a move I totally support in this exact scenario, with Taylor and Kupp getting bad news and everything for Week 1 looking too bleak to compete in a melee: don’t drop anybody. Having an invalid lineup doesn’t preclude you from competing in a fantasy game; it just prohibits you from adjusting said lineup. Brian can sit on this roster for as long as he’s comfortable losing games. It is a strategy worth considering if you end up with extra picks in a future draft. It’s also a good reason to consider those 2-for-1 trades. For as long as you’re comfortable not being able to adjust your roster, you get to keep that extra player.
Cooper Kupp will return. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will return. Even Jonathan Taylor will return. All of us are going to have players get injured. How blessed Brian is to get injuries out of the way now instead of in our playoffs. Brian’s team is deep anyway. Even after you cut the three extra RBs and put Jonathan Taylor on IR, you have four RBs I would feel comfortable starting. You miss Kupp and JSN for a few weeks, but you start two of Drake London, Mike Williams, and Elijah Moore. Hell, maybe Treylon Burks is something. And you top that cake with Mark Andrews continuing to be a top-five TE.
Brian’s roster goes to show the severe lack of NFL talent coming through FSU in recent years. Going on about five years, you can’t start a Seminole LB in fantasy. With Ramsey out, Derwin and Burns are the only two FSU players starting for NFL defenses. I think I’m right on that. Joyner lost his job last year. Mario Edwards doesn’t start. Derek Nnadi is starting for the Chiefs in place of Chris Jones. That’s something. But you literally can’t get a LB. It’s sad.
Yeah so with the injuries and the five extra players for no reason and Brian’s team just seeming kind of cursed from the jump, I originally had Brian ranked 9th, but for some reason, I just kept looking at the next team and bumping Brian up another spot until, well, here we are. Losing the championship to…
Best Picks: all of them
Worst Picks: nonsense
QB Lamar
RB CMC
WR Evans
WR Dotson
TE Waller
FX Hopkins
FX Rhamondre
K Tucker
DL Garrett
LB Roquan
DB Adams (hurt)
DX Lavonte
BN Kamara (SUS)
BN Christian Kirk
BN OBJ
BN Marvin Mims
BN Jayden Reed
BN Elijah Mitchell
It’s time to try to solve one of the great mysteries of our universe: what happens when the commissioner’s curse threatens the commissioner himself?
And do I even buy that my team is this good? Normally, I’m negging myself into a sort of reverse-jinx, so what do I really think? Am I reverse-jinxing the reverse-jinx? Am I jumping on the commissioner’s curse grenade for Brian’s sake, since Brian so badly needs to redeem himself after going on a Bills-esque run of having four playoff byes and not one championship to show for them? Was drafting Josh Allen just the poetic justice he needs to get over the hump, or am I really about to let him claw back up this mountain just to kick him back to the bottom again?
It's all questions, right? Can Lamar recreate the magic of that MVP season? Can CMC stay healthy? Was Mike Evans’ hamstring injury a hold-out hoax? Is Darren Waller the key to the Giants’ offense becoming elite? Does DeAndre Hopkins still have it? Does OBJ? Can Rhamondre thrive despite the Pats’ signing Zeke? Will Alvin Kamara still be the dude in New Orleans after his suspension? Is Christian Kirk getting relegated? Will Marvin Mims or Jayden Reed make the most of already starting as rookies? Will Elijah Mitchell in the ninth round be just a total waste of a draft pick when McCaffrey goes down and the Niners turn to Jordan Mason? Is a 33-yo Lavonte David finally due for a slowdown?
I truly feel like Justin Tucker, Myles Garrett, and Roquan Smith are unquestionable. Maybe none of them leads their position, I guess. But that’s a dream only one player at every position gets. Why should I get them all? Because outside of WR and DB, I really feel like I have legitimate favorites to lead every position in fantasy points. That’s why I’m calling my shot. Calling my curse. Calling it a day.
