For the purposes of I only have so many hours to write a note, everyone’s keeper list has been shortened to only my favorites. The comprehensive keeper list can be found here.
Let’s get one given out of the way:
QB is a position of interest. It is this way every year in Mortydome. We have the 6-pt TD and the first down bonus. Josh Allen has scored over 500 FP three straight seasons. The best non-QBs in the last three seasons have scored 376, 438, and 408. The best season from a non-QB in recent history was CMC, scoring 464 in 2019. Second-best that year was 349 FP. 2019 was nuts. Lamar scored 555. Second-best QB scored 448. Third was 391. Things are different now. In the last three seasons, at least three QBs per year broke 480.
We will start the draft with the following QBs off the board: Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow, Lamar, Herbert, Trevor, and Fields. Dimes, Dak, Tua, and Rodgers can be kept. In that (unlikely) scenario, the QB field, in order of ADP, has a top five of Josh Allen, Big Perv, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, and Russell Wilson. If you want, you can put Anthony Richardson and/or Bryce Young somewhere in there. It’s really gross out there if you’re not one of the six teams with a bonafide star. My guess is that Dimes, Tua, and Rodgers are almost definitely not being kept. Dak… well let’s get into it.
Keepers
Early: Dak, DJ Moore, Hollywood
Late: Fields, Christian Watson
Bonus Assets
Pick 2.04 via Oliver (Mahomes)
Justin Fields is already Chicago royalty. He’s easily their best QB of the 21st century, which makes him their best QB ever since I’m pretty sure their best QB ever was Smokin’ Jay Cutler. Kennedy is boots on the ground; he can correct me. Fields said himself in an interview with the great Kevin Clark, “It’s not my fault this team has never had a franchise quarterback,” a sentiment that cuts both ways: this city is ripe for a hero, and this city has no business anointing Fields this quickly. Without getting too stat-heavy, Fields got a shit-ton of fantasy points from rushing efforts that likely can’t be replicated, and his team didn’t even win most of those games. He rushed for over 130 yards three times; he threw for over 200 yards just twice; those games did not overlap. In Weeks 9 and 10, he scored 107 total FP. In Weeks 11-17, he scored 103 total FP.
This is all to say that Kennedy need not steep himself in the collective psychosis any further. He has a great early keeper option in Dak. He has the option of drafting Josh Allen first overall. But also, how many times do you get to immerse yourself in an alternate reality? Grow a moustache, move into the basement of a sport bar, invest in a nice knit sweater vest, start talking like George Wendt, and most importantly drink yourself to the verge of comatose, as a baseline. Spend the entire winter in the closest thing humans get to a hibernative state. Be a Bear, dammit.
I might as well restate what’s being talked about by every analyst worth a shit: the Bears are doing the thing that got the Bills and Eagles back into perennial Super Bowl contention. They traded for a star WR. If Justin Fields is a good QB, he’s going to prove it this year. I should also state the Cardinals tried this and failed because the Cardinals weren’t running a functional offense. It remains to be seen whether the Bears run a functional offense, but theoretically they do. Everything should sync up.
I don’t really think Kennedy should pivot off the Bears. Dak is fine, but I’d rather keep Moore even if I weren’t stacking with Fields. Moore and Christian Watson, draft Josh Allen? Moore and Watson, draft CMC. These are viable builds. But the Fields-Moore stack isn’t a build; it’s an experience.
Keepers
Early: Burrow, Waddle, Deebo, DeVonta
Late: Dimes, Lockett
Bonus Assets
Pick 10.01 via Sean (N. Bosa)
Corey has to decide whether I’m overblowing the importance of QB in our league. But when Corey won two years ago, who was his QB? Josh Allen. Joe Burrow isn’t Josh Allen, but he is one of a small number of QBs flirting with 500 FP (480 last season). It does seem a matter of when not if Burrow wins MVP. With Josh Allen on the Madden cover and the Chiefs and Eagles in Super Bowl hangover, it might just be Burrow’s year. But to keep Burrow, Corey has to let go of Jaylen Waddle, possibly the fastest player in football, last year’s leader in yards per catch, a player who should be off the board by the time Corey’s second pick comes. Can we say the same of Burrow? He’s the Cooper Kupp of quarterbacks. Ah, but Cooper Kupp is getting drafted ahead of Jaylen Waddle. So there we have it.
Cool bonus to keeping Burrow: no matter what Kennedy does, he is not drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Maybe it’s foolish to pass up on CMC or Justin Jefferson just to stack your QB and WR, but it’s the best QB-WR stack possible. You could argue Allen-Diggs or Hurts-AJB, but I’m sorry. Diggs doesn’t compare to Chase, and Hurts doesn’t compare to Burrow. The chemistry runs deeper than any other stack. Okay, Mahomes-Kelce is the top stack. I’m sorry, I forgot.
So yeah, you sacrifice Waddle at the altar of Geaux Bengals. And you keep Tyler Lockett because Tyler Lockett is, without exaggeration, the most underrated WR if not the most underrated player. Coming off his third consecutive 1,000-yard season, Lockett was a double-digit round pick in our draft last year. You hang onto a car this cherry, kinda like your suitcase.
Keepers
Early: Breece, Rodgers
Late: Carr, Thielen, Njoku, Carlson
Bonus Assets
14.01 via Doak (Rodgers)
Aaron Rodgers is going to resurrect the New York Jets, with or without Breece Hall, who is uncertain to start the season due to an ACL tear suffered near the start of last season. Players coming back from ACLs do a good job of getting on the field after nine or ten months, but they typically don’t resemble their former selves in that first month back, sometimes longer. So while keeping Rodgers over Breece seems (pardon) fucking stupid, I think you have to at least admit it’s not a slam dunk to take a second-year RB coming off significant injury over a HOF QB getting to dictate the entire offense.
Obviously keep Breece. I just need to fill a relatively equal space for each write-up. The real decision is what to do with the late keeper. The answer is to trade the keeper slot to someone else. Some teams are sitting on two or three solid late keepers, and you can get a better pick than any of your late options are worth. Who is the best keeper up there? Carr or Njoku? Are either of them worth more than an 8th? A bunch of teams would trade you an 8th. At least two teams would give up significantly more:
Spencer would love to keep Trevor Lawrence and Garrett Wilson late. He also has Aaron Jones and Tee Higgins in his early mix. A third-round pick seems like a fair price?
Kennedy wouldn’t have to choose between DJ Moore and Christian Watson. That’s worth a fourth.
The other option is you trade a pick for one of those late keepers, or whatever, another late keeper you like. Exercise your leverage. Kennedy can’t keep Moore, Fields, and Watson. He would part with Watson for less than Watson is worth in the draft. You can score a cheap IDP from almost any team.
It’s more fun to have options than to feel stuck keeping Carr, Njoku, or Carlson. But if you decided to play it straight up, Carlson is the best value as he’s going to outscore Njoku outright and challenge for the lead in kicker points. And Carr is mid. You can do better.
Keepers
Early: A.Jones, T.Higgins
Late: Trevor, Garrett Wilson
Bonus Assets
3.09 via Oliver (Mike Evans)
5.07 via Coleman (Goedert)
Four solid options, all going within one round of each other in the draft. You just pick your two faves and try not to think about it afterward. Aaron Jones is probably the least interesting. Getting older, playing RB, losing Rodgers… Tee Higgins and Garrett Wilson are an obvious comparison, in which case Wilson is the obviously better player. He already outscored Higgins last year despite having to play with Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco (and maybe a fourth guy?). So now it’s Higgins versus keeping a QB in a league where the best QB usually wins the championship. Higgins is, like, fine. He gets a massive boost playing with Burrow.
Trevor Lawrence was the number one pick two years ago, he’s in the offense that made Carson Wentz an MVP candidate, and his team added a star WR this season. The Jags were already a top-10 passing team last year. They could easily get in the mix with KC, Buffalo, and Cincinnati this season. It’s worth it to see. Unless you believe Josh Allen will fall to you at 4th overall. I mean believe. I would rather have to trade Trevor than get to that 4th pick and know I had to wait like 20 picks to see whether Trevor is still there in the 2nd.
I might as well emphasize Spencer’s ability to get an extra late-keeper slot, with the top candidates for trade being Max and Oliver, as they have the worst late keepers. Though I really don’t think Higgins is worth it. I would just keep Trevor early and Wilson late, reason being that most of this year’s kept QBs are earlies and will be back in the pool next year, meaning Wilson should have higher value than Lawrence a year from now. But if you think Lawrence is going to leap into the top tier of QBs long-term, then by all means…
Keepers
Early: Akers, CEH, Diontae
Late: Big Perv, London, Skyy, Burns
Bonus Assets
1.12 via Sean (Lamb)
9.09 via Oliver (Pittman)
12.03 via Doak (Derwin)
13.10 via Doak via Oliver (Rodgers)
14.01 via Sean (Mattison)
I love Cam Akers, but he is the worst of this year’s early keepers. Brian might be better off finding a trade partner to give him a second-rounder for the keeper slot. Hell, throw Drake London back in as well and try to score Spencer’s draft pick before Max or Oliver beat you to it. Leave last year fully in the past. Get Akers in the 3rd round anyway and have the option to keep him again next year.
But fine, playing it straight, you could compare Akers and Diontae and see that Akers scored more FP in his final six games than Diontae did all year. Moving on to the Big Perv debate.
Big Perv is the Browns’ QB. He had a terrible 2022 in every regard except the financial. He was once a top-5 QB in the league, granted that was, to me, a different league. He doesn’t move that fast, he’s not that strong, and he doesn’t throw super hard or far or super accurately. I’m just going to name QBs that I think are better than him, and you stop when you get to where you disagree. Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Hurts, Herbert, Rodgers, Lawrence, Fields, Brady, Dak, Goff, Cousins, Stafford, Russ—okay I will stop at Big Perv being probably better than late-stage Russell Wilson. But I could still mention Bryce Young, maybe even Anthony Richardson, and feel okay about it.
It's Tiger Woods all over again. For his entire career, he got to show up to work and ignore everything else in his life because at work, he was a god. Then some unsavory details of his personal life went public. His work persona was fractured and so without being able to compartmentalize, his psyche folded and he began suffering minor injuries that got more and more major until one day he’s having back surgery but the real problem wasn’t his T5 or whatever but that he couldn’t vanquish his demons.
You need to be able to know when you’re the villain. It’s not ideal to be the villain, but there’s a villain, and if it’s you, then pretending you’re not the villain is just wasting everyone’s time and corrupting the energy we all share. If you’re gonna be bad, be bad! Be the one who knocks, dammit!
So basically Akers and Burns for the Seminole stack, or Akers and London for the best value stack. Leave Big Perv’s lying ass on the board.
Keepers
Early: Kyler, Jeudy, Kittle, Devin White
Late: Geno, Rachaad White, Jahan Dotson
Shelby’s bonus asset is integrity. When the rest of us were selling stars for used boot leather, Shelby was waiting for a fair offer for Diggs. Receiving no fair offer, she kept Diggs and finished in last place, losing to a man who sold D’Andre Swift and Michael Pittman for a 9th and 13th. Integrity doesn’t pay off in worldly things like wins. Integrity keep your soul clean. You can’t pay for that, not since the 16th century anyway. So while Shelby may never win a championship, and while she has to host just a pathetic and frankly garish trophy for the year, gets to finish every season knowing at least she didn’t embarrass herself for, at best, like $400 and the semi-respect of a bunch of filthy souls.
What are we talking about? Keepers? Well it would be Kyler (forever) if not for the knee, which is probably a blessing, but what it definitely is is a reminder to the rest of us that if you’re choosing between two players, probably take the one that’s already had the catastrophic season-ending knee injury.
Jeudy, Kittle, and Devin White are all respectable keepers. Kittle and White are the more… word… not unique, uhhh… irreplaceable, no… fuck! Kittle and White play positions where fewer comparable players are available. Kittle plays an especially scarce (scarce!) position, and his draft price is probably a round or two higher than White’s, so that’s how I make that call.
Geno Smith finished sixth in QB scoring last season, just half a point behind Trevor Lawrence. Rachaad White is more interesting. He enters the year as the unquestioned RB1. He has been compared to young David Johnson. The Bucs are rumored to become an offense that relies on running the ball. Half of our league would draft Rachaad ahead of his ADP, while almost all of us will overlook Geno until the double-digit rounds.
Keepers
Early: Jacobs, Etienne, Cooper
Late: Tua, Pollard, Sutton, Marcus Jones
(Just had to squeeze Marcus Jones, last year’s Deion Sanders, in there. With the Pats adding a handful of receivers in the offseason, and no longer having special teams and defensive coordinators calling the offense, not a lot of hope the DB remains a two-way player.)
Josh Jacobs wouldn’t play football this year if you offered him 10 million dollars. Or maybe he just wouldn’t play football for Josh McDaniels for that price. Either way, the Raiders have to offer more money now or give Jacobs a long-term deal in order to secure his services for the 2023 season.
Cameron has two weeks to decide whether to pivot to Etienne, and he will take that decision to the wire because Jacobs led all non-QBs in scoring last year. The problem is that Jacobs had 340 carries last season. When a player carries the ball that many times in one year, he almost always gets hurt the following season. Derrick Henry had 370 carries in 2020, missed eight games in 2021. Jonathan Taylor had 330 carries in 2021, missed six games last year. Zeke had 320 carries in 2016, missed six games in 2017. Lev Bell had 320 carries in 2017, and the following season was the one he skipped. Teams just don’t give their RBs this many carries anymore. Those are the only examples in the past seven years of a guy getting over 320 carries. It’s bad for them.
Yes, I’m saying dump Jacobs outright and keep Etienne.
Pollard is fine. No notes there.
Should Cameron consider keeping Tua? Yes. Consider all possibilities if you have the time. Tua had a 6-TD game last season. When Miami’s o-line was healthy, Tua was on pace for 5000 yards and 40 TDs. That’s threatening to be QB1 overall. This isn’t the Geno Smith case. Tua wasn’t just good; he was fucking crushing skulls—don’t say crushing skulls. ‘Cause then you’ll remember why you’re not touching Tua at all. You’re not touching CTE or the fencing position or the most obviously bad thing about football. You’re keeping Tony Pollard, and you’re enjoying your Sunday afternoons in ignorant bliss.
Keepers
Early: Herbert, Pierce, McLaurin, Olave, Parsons
Late: Ken Walker, Engram, Maxx
Coleman crushed the draft again last year. If only he knew how to generate a late-season surge, he would have a championship by now.
I’m going back and forth between Justin Herbert and Chris Olave.
If I make the case that Corey has to keep Burrow over Waddle, then Coleman has to keep Herbert over Olave. I just don’t buy Justin Herbert the way I buy Joe Burrow. I don’t believe it’s a matter of when not if Herbert wins MVP or a Super Bowl. Herbert throws a beautiful ball. But so does Jared Goff. Herbert is in the MD 500, which is what I’m calling players who have scored more than 500 FP in a single Mortydome season.
Players in the MD 500:
Mahomes – 2018, 2020, 2022
Allen – 2020, 2021, 2022
Brady – 2021
Herbert – 2021
Rodgers – 2020
Lamar – 2019
(So for the record, I’m not overselling the importance of Josh Allen. Josh Allen is cooking. He is championship contention in pill form.)
But Olave is one of just 29 WRs ever to eclipse 1,000 yards in his rookie season. It’s a big deal. I’m not sure it’s a bigger deal than 500 FP. Last year’s WR1 scored 317 FP. Olave scored 178, finishing 22nd at the position. The math isn’t as simple as 500 – 317 or 500 – 178. But if you think Herbert can return to his former glory, and you don’t think Olave is, at worst, the tenth best receiver, strictly in terms of fantasy ceiling, then you must keep Herbert.
As for your late keeper, I have one word: Kenergy.
Keepers
Early: Lamar
Late: Goff, Rhamondre, Toney, Justin Tucker
Bonus Assets
4.01 via Sean (Henry)
4.04 via Oliver (Metcalf)
My list of early keepers is spectacular, but it doesn’t matter. The only two player I’d consider keeping over Lamar are Mahomes and Allen.
My late keeper is kind of obvious. And while I believe the Patriots will bring in a veteran RB on a minimum salary to eat up 200 carries this season, I still believe Rhamondre can average 15+ points per game. I would love for Toney to be healthy and make my choice a little harder. I would love a chance at a moral-dilemma-free Tyreek-type. Toney’s ceiling is DeSean Jackson, but his realistic career trajectory is aligning closer to Will Fuller’s. He’s going to spend 30% of his time winning weeks and the other 70% sitting in your IR slot or getting hurt five minutes into a game and tanking your week. I want a piece of that masochism. I do. I live for it. But I’m almost five years removed from winning this league, and I have a reputation to maintain. I have to keep my foot on the gas. Even if I didn’t have Rhamondre, I would probably just keep Tucker. Tucker is a path to fewer decisions down the road. Toney is likely an every-week brain-rack. Tinkering with our lineups is fun, but some weeks I just want to bask in a solid lineup with no holes in it.
Keepers
Early: Mahomes, Kelce, Watt
Late: Russ, Pacheco, Khalil Herbert, Elijah Moore
There are two obvious battles here.
Early, you’re deciding between Mahomes and Kelce. In many other leagues, you take Kelce and hope Mahomes falls to you in the second or third round. In Mortydome, we respect the MD 500. We keep Mahomes every time with zero hesitation. The decision then becomes, does Oliver try to move up for Kelce? Or even, does Oliver hope for Kelce to fall to nine overall, then pivot to a trade for a couple of high-ish picks in order to more easily fill out a roster. I would probably offer my 2nd and 4th to be able to pick back-to-back in the first round. Evan is picking right behind me, and we tend to like the same players. I want to fuck him up right out of the gate. So Oliver has that option. But if Kelce is there, I think he has to run that stack back. You’re talking about a handful of 60-point weeks from those two alone. It’s not enough to make the playoffs, but it’s enough to make it look like you’re not tanking. And my god, what a fringe playoff team would pay to snag that stack at the trade deadline. Mouth-watering.
Late, you’re deciding between Pacheco and Herbert, two of the fishier starters the league has to offer. We know they are starters. We just don’t know what that means in the context of their teams. Pacheco is a hard runner with great speed, but he’s not great on third downs. He stole the dirty work from an injured CEH last season, and KC showed little confidence in a healthy CEH later in the year. Pacheco’s likely the one getting the ball in the fourth quarter when the Chiefs are cruising to victory.
Herbert is a similar player, but he’s slower and in a less exciting offense, on a team less likely to be closing out strong wins with a bunch of runs. So picking Herbert requires dual confidence, that he will win the Bears’ backfield and that Pacheco will cede valuable work to CEH. For what it’s worth I think D’Onta Foreman is the best RB in Chicago.
Keepers
Early: AJB, Godwin, Sun God
Late: Pickens, Taysom
Evan has locked in AJ Brown and George Pickens, which is the correct answer. Evan has a chip on his shoulder, and he is bringing big bully energy into this season. These are maybe the two most physical receivers in the league? I mean, Deebo plays RB, but he’s not throwing people around the way Brown and Pickens are. I’m really at a loss thinking of a bigger bully WR. The other bigs don’t really play like that. They’re still trying to win off footwork or speed or climbing the ladder. Like Hopkins, Adams, and Evans come to mind, but each of them win on something besides shoving people around—in fact, shoving people around has gotten the latter two in a lot of trouble.
So the question becomes not, who will Evan keep, but: who will Evan draft in order to craft the biggest bully lineup? Aaron Rodgers is an asshole, but is he a bully? Philip Rivers would have been my pick for bully. Maybe Cam Newton. Physically it’s Josh Allen, and he talks enough shit in practice to goad DTs into fights. But Evan has no shot at Allen this season. Mac Jones is also an asshole, but to be a bully, you kind of have to win fights, yes? Deshaun Watson takes what he wants without remorse, so I guess it’s him.
And at RB, who’s just nasty? Dameon Pierce likes to run people over in sort of a Marshawn style, not that Marshawn was mean in any way but he famously said his plan every snap was to “run through a motherfucker’s face over and over and over.” Alvin Kamara? But now we’re just doing, like, the longest yard. Being a legit criminal isn’t the same as bullying. Maybe Evan has some inspiration here. I don’t have to think of everything.
Man, there really aren’t the same number of bullies as there used to be. Historically, I’m like building this thing out no problem: Tom Brady, Marshawn, Keyshawn, DeSean, any Shawn/Sean, Jeremy Shockey, Warren Sapp, Ndamukong Suh, Vontaze Burfict, Bill Romanowski, Pac Man Jones. It’s harder now, for sure.
And to be fair, AJB and Pickens aren’t that personality type anyway. They’re not assholes. They just throw their weight around more than most. I suppose in that sense, this would be the lineup:
QB Allen, Tannehill, or Richardson
RB Henry, Dillon, Pierce, Brian Robinson
WR AJB, Pickens, Godwin, Deebo, Thomas, Hollins, Burks
TE Taysom, Kittle
DL Jon. Allen, Chris Jones
LB Shaq Leonard, Willie Gay
DB Jamal Adams, Jalen Pitre, Hufanga
K Joey Slye
And your draft homework is done!
Keepers
Early: Hurts, Andrews
Late: Mattison
Sean got very lucky that the Vikings decided to move on from Dalvin Cook. His next best late keeper is either Brock Purdy or Dalton Schultz. Okay, maybe it’s Zaire Franklin, who finished fourth in the league in tackles at 167 (granted he was a full tackle-per-game off Foye Oluokun’s league-leading 184, eight tackles behind Oluokun’s personal-best 192, and a full 30 behind Hardy Nickerson’s NFL record 214 tackles in just 16 games).
Hurts over Andrews is just how you play the game. Mattison is the only top-100 ranked player in Sean’s late keepers. This is decided.
Sean’s late-season acquisition of Mattison for a 14th pick is instructive. He didn’t do it for late keeper appeal, but going forward, there are worse strategies than moving a late pick to a dumpster fire team for a potential late keeper.
But to spice it up, Sean should sacrifice Mattison and trade that keeper slot for a pick. Even if the pick ends up being Mattison down the road, at least you lived.
