We’ve done all we can to fight it. I think it’s time we give in. Evan is going to win the championship this year. We knew it ten weeks ago. Oliver and Sean tried everything they could to get an advantage. Sean even took the 1-seed. It wasn’t enough. We can try to blame Oliver for choosing the wrong WR/FLEX combo, leaving the winning points on his bench, but the difference in his matchup with Evan was ultimately the negative-2 points scored by Nick Folk, who hadn’t scored fewer than zero points in the last five years, who hadn’t missed an extra point all year and then missed two on Saturday. Oliver can kick himself all he wants for not starting Isaiah Pacheco, for not replacing Nick Folk, but the way I see it, Evan was going to win no matter what. It’s just his year.
If Sean has any hope at all, it’s that the changing of a calendar year changes the stars. Except for Thursday’s Cowboys-Titans game, every Week 17 matchup takes place in the new year. And if Sean doesn’t believe in stuff like that, he can at least believe in this, per ESPN’s Dan Graziano:
“Have a Derrick Henry backup plan. Three years ago, the Titans sat a realtively healthy Derrick Henry against the Saints in their second-to-last game of the season because they realized that winning or losing that game would have no impact on their playoff chances, and everything rode on the season finale. Such is the case again this year. This week’s game (on a short week, by the way) against the Cowboys cannot change the fact Tennessee would win the division with a Week 18 victory over the Jaguars or miss the playoffs with a loss in that game. Sitting its star running back so he’s fresh for the team’s only remaining important game makes sense. If you’re in your fantasy football championship and have been relying on Henry, you might be in for disappointment.”
I think Sean caught wind of this news in some fashion, as he spent a waiver claim on Titans’ rookie Hassan Haskins. I like Haskins. I like that he carried the ball 20 times per game for the best rushing offense in college football last season, with 27+ carries in four of 14 games, including a 5-TD game against Ohio State to end the regular season. For the Titans, Haskins returns kicks and plays on all three downs (granted, he plays behind Henry and Hilliard). A good game from Haskins this week could help the Titans trade Henry in the offseason, with the added bonus of not harming their relationship with Henry between now and then.Would I start Haskins? I mean, I start AJ Dillon, so what’s my opinion worth?
Really, I don’t think this game between Evan and Sean comes down to anything more than fate. Sean has the better matchups. He has the best IDP. I don’t think any of that matters, especially if Jalen Hurts doesn’t play.
Unlike Henry, Hurts has a reason to play. I don’t think it’s a good reason. I don’t think homefield advantage over the Vikings is something you risk your star QB for. I don’t think Hurts is going to play anyway. I think it benefits the Eagles to force opponents to prepare as if Hurts is playing. Sean can roll with Brock Purdy, partially because Purdy has been playing great, but mostly because it doesn’t matter what Sean does. The outcomes have been predetermined. It’s as rigged as the NFL itself.
The age-old question: would you rather lose narrowly in a game that goes down to the wire? Or would you rather get absolutely smoked right out of the gate with no chance to recover in the remaining games?
The first scenario means your team is good and competitive, but the human body can only endure so much stress. I’m not going to pretend the playoffs are fun. The playoffs are brutal. Winning in the playoffs is a little fun, in the way that, like, surviving a near-death experience is fun. Like, there was a time when we partied with people with guns, and I remember one night I was sitting on a neighbor’s couch, looking on as some people played beer pong, when one of them had his handgun fall through the waist of his pants and hit the ground, with the barrel pointing my direction. Movies have taught me that if the safety is off, that gun will fire a bullet. So when the gun hit the ground and no bullet came out, I laughed my fucking ass off. I would say you had to be there, but it didn’t make sense to anyone else either.
The second scenario involves a lot of anticipation and then a solid stream of deflation. Saturday morning for me was just two hours of air slowly leaving my balloon. You know that squeaking sound the balloon makes? Imagine that sound but it’s coming from me writhing on my couch. After the early games ended, Stephanie and I went out to lunch for her birthday. I ate spicy noodles, steamed pork buns, and garlic green beans. I drank a root beer. When we got home from lunch, I found out Gardner Minshew was the favorite to win the cash game. Between the end of the early Saturday games and the start of the Bucs game Sunday night, I watched maybe four minutes of football. It was fabulous.
Oliver will back me up on this: if you’re going to lose an important game, you want it to be over as quickly as possible. There is no enjoying the journey. You’re like Scrooge following around the Ghost of Christmas Present. Here are the player you don’t appreciate enough, enjoying their Christmas despite your indifference, your greed. Spirit, show me no more. Take me back home to my bed. This is bullshit, Spirit, please.
Cameron outscored everybody, so he gets his choice of 7th or 8th Pick next year. Love when the award fits the achievement. It could be worse. After losing to Cameron in last year’s playoffs, Kennedy’s next two scores were 223 and 197. Meanwhile, Cameron advanced all the way to the championship and lost 140-121. That 121 was second-worst that week. At least Cameron ends this season on a high note.
Coleman ends the season on a fine note, scoring almost 160 and being able to blame the loss on going against the best team that week and also getting to blame everything on Justin Herbert. It does suck that Coleman winds up in 6th place and goes into next year without a 5th or 10th pick.
These ended up kind of looking like close games, but these were not close games. Max got 25 FP from Tyler Higbee and still lost by 20. Spencer got 17 FP from Succop, and so he only lost by 25, despite Corey starting a WR who didn’t even play. Corey and Kennedy entered the pick ladder as the favorites, they entered Round 2 as the favorites, and they will play next week for the #1 pick. Loser gets the second pick, and man, if you think it doesn’t matter… well, you’re probably right. Jonathan Taylor was the consensus #1 pick this year, and everyone who drafted him probably missed the playoffs or got bounced when he had a maximum 2.3 FP (in full PPR) in Round 1. BUT you get that choice.
It appeared as if Brian had just accepted death. He was just lying there. Turns out, what looked like ten weeks of truly embarrassing losing was just Brian storing energy to avoid last place. Sucks that Shelby had to be on the receiving end, but it really doesn’t say anything about her season. Did she score just 121 points, and did I imply earlier that this is a sad score? Sure. But Max scored 112 and I scored 98, and 29 of those 98 were from me starting Minshew as a bit. And I was trying my best! Max and Shelby were barely playing (I assume).
After the Tucker trade, Coleman and I made a slap bet: winner is whoever scores more kicker points between that trade and end of season. The count right now is 117.6 to 106.6, which is a relief for me after realizing Coleman had 20-point weeks from two different kickers (Gould and Gay). But with just eleven points separating us, it’s still anyone’s slap.
C’mon Football over Piss Master
Don’t think I don’t realize that Spencer is getting an extra 3rd next year for poisoning Oliver’s championship run—granted, Brian did his part, too, but only got a 9th for Pittman. Spencer should be very careful with that pick. There’s a good chance it’s cursed and an even better chance we all forget about it between now and next year. The menschy move, the move a best man would make, in my opinion, would be to give back the pick for something Evans is worth—which, to be clear, is less than nothing, as his presence actively worked against Oliver since the trade. Would I really do this? I might! I’ve made worse trades, and I’ve given up something for nothing in other aspects of my life. But Doak, if you’re so magnanimous, why aren’t you giving back Oliver’s 4th for DK Metcalf?! Uhhh, because if Oliver had started Metcalf over Evans, he’d be in the championship? Dork.
Anyway, I’m not going to pretend to care who finished in 9th place. I’m just here to state once more that Max needs to drop his garbage players and pick up late keepers before this week is over. And to mention that Derek Carr’s benching might actually give Derek Carr some late keeper appeal. The rumor is that the real reason the Raiders are benching him is to keep him safe from injury, since an injury would guarantee an extra $25M of Carr’s 2023 salary. The Raiders can trade Carr this offseason, and depending where he lands, he could be good for fantasy. Not great! Stop throwing things at me! I’m just saying compared to Max’s other late keeper options, Carr has some appeal if he joins a team with great receivers. Like, if Derek Carr replaces Tua in Miami, you’re intrigued. You are. Especially if you had Tua’s top receiver in fantasy this year.
Also, I think Spencer wins by a lot. I’ve been saying for weeks his team is good. Even though he got spanked by Corey, he still would have beaten Max by 20. The only significant difference this week is that Max pretty much has to start Rodgers (or go back to Brady).
Roy over The Reigning Champ
Just a few weeks ago, these teams were vying for the final spot in the playoffs. Either would have advanced past Coleman in the first round. Neither would have made it through Sean. They are better off where they are now than playing for third place. The first pick didn’t help Max much this season. Often the first pick is spent on a player who’s projected to get the most work, and often the heavy workload leads to injury and dooms his season. After what happened this year, and all the great QBs probably not entering the draft pool, the first-pick game might just decide who gets Josh Allen next year. Then again, Corey has Burrow and Kennedy has Fields. Then again, most people would prefer Josh Allen. Then again, if you traded Burrow and the #1 pick for Allen, Cameron would be off the hook for trading away Ja’Marr Chase. You really want to take Cameron’s spot on that hook? BUT with so many good QBs in keeper escrow, 2023 will be an opportunity to trade a keeper QB for a really nice pick. Burrow was worth a 3rd this year. I feel like he’s worth a 3rd when we’ve got two full rounds of keepers off the top.
But anyway, who’s most likely to win this pick and all the possibility that goes with it?
QB: Burrow was trash in the second half against New England, but he still had 31 FP. Fields was bad all game against Buffalo (who Burrow plays this week) in 10-degrees and lots of wind, but he plays Detroit in a dome this week. Last time Fields played Detroit (outside, in Chicago), he scored 46 FP. This is Burrow’s first game against the Bills. Advantage Kennedy.
RB: Antonio Gibson’s knee/foot could create a huge swing. Not only does Corey lack a backup RB, Kennedy has Brian Robinson, who’s been great even with Gibson playing. Kennedy also has Ekeler and Fournette. Massive advantage Kennedy.
WR: DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle give Corey would give Corey an advantage even if Kennedy got to pick his WRs after the games were played. Lockett is back, and Deebo is rumored to be working his way back. If not, it’s still a solid 7-15 FP from Jakobi Meyers. It’s enough to make things close with Kennedy’s RBs.
TE: Freiermuth over Conklin, and what is even the appeal with Conklin?
K: who cares
IDP: Kennedy has dominant players at every position, but Corey has been getting great production from his starters. Slight advantage Kennedy.
Overall, there’s a reason Kennedy is projected to score more points. But with these lineups, Corey has outscored Kennedy three weeks in a row, by kind of a lot of points.
Whatever
I haven’t talked to Oliver about it yet, but I’m guessing we feel pretty similarly about this matchup. We are disappointed to be here. Oliver is way more disappointed than me. I’ve pretty much already set my lineup. My bench is clogged with potential keepers. The season is over. Nothing matters. I’m looking forward to next year, and Oliver is contemplating retirement from fantasy football. I think he’ll come around and realize next year was a free pass whether he won the championship or not. He goes into the draft without picks in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. That’s not that big a deal. Even the 9th he gave up for Pittman is just whatever. Even if I’m forgetting about a pick, it doesn’t matter. He’ll start the draft with Mahomes. He can probably swing a trade with one of his other early keepers to pick up a better late keeper than Pacheco (or Pacheco becomes the starter and Oliver owns the Chiefs offense again).
But so 3rd place? I don’t know what that’s worth, but I know that me playing Oliver in for 3rd place means that our 4th Round picks will be back to back, and if Sean loses the championship, then I’ll have three consecutive picks in the 4th Round next year. And if Derrick Henry doesn’t play this week anyway, then wow, do I no longer regret that trade!
(Given how my game against Sean ended, the regret clock on my trades ran out already. Even if I had Henry and Metcalf, I would have still lost to Sean by 30.
The Polar Express over 20 min. Adventure
Congratulations to Sean and Evan for making it this far. I, for one, am very jealous. Winning the championship is awesome. Though Sean and Evan have each won this thing before, it’s been a little while. Certainly the five-year grace period has expired, where you no longer feel like a recent champion. Sean won it all in 2015, and Evan won the year after. Sean’s waited longer, but Evan’s made the playoffs more often in the interim. In fact, Evan has made the playoffs four of the last five years, including when we all made it last year, while in that same stretch Sean has made the playoffs only when we all made it last year. It is yet another piece of evidence pointing to this being Evan’s year. You chip away every year, and eventually the pieces fall into place. The one thing Sean has going for him is that he’s outscored Evan four weeks in a row. And take this last nugget whichever way you want: the last time they played each other (Week 11), Sean won 180-136. Josh Allen scored 15 for Evan. Tyler Bass scored 26 for Sean.
I did the rest of this preview up top. I wouldn’t bet money on Evan, but that’s mostly because I’m all done losing money on football for this year. I hope that if you have yet to win a cash game this year that the golden ratio smiles on you this week. Peace. And Happy New Year.
