Lyfe is Over
Cameron can’t be too disappointed. There’s only so much you can do against a legit superteam. Kirk Cousins scored 38 FP (after going below -5 FP), and Mahomes still outscored him. Oliver outscored every team in Mortydome this week thanks to 39 from Mahomes, thanks to 17 apiece from his other Chiefs, thanks to a combined 52 from CMC and Barkley. While Oliver has become a superteam, his original first five draft picks are still the heart of the team: CMC, Barkley, Kelce, Keenan, and TJ Watt are probably better than anyone else’s first five. Well, now that I said it, we might as well look.
Here are our fives, from best to worst:
Evan: Allen, Chubb, AJ Brown, Godwin, Zeke
Oliver: CMC, Bark, Kelce, Keen, TJ
Cam: Ja’Marr, Adams, Deebo, ETN, Jacobs
Coleman: Jefferson, Kamara, Herbs, Terry, Parsons
Corey: Kupp, Javonte, Waddle, Burrow, Gibson
Shelby: Mixon, Diggs, Kittle, Kyler, Jeudy
Sean: Dalvin, Conner, Andrews, MikeWill, Sutton
Doak: Henry, Pitts, Lamar, Metcalf, Dobbins
Spe: Najee, Evans, A.Jones, Tee, Hollywood
Brian: Swift, Lamb, Pittman, Akers, Diontae
K: Ekeler, Lenny, Mahomes, DJ Moore, Schultz
Max: JT, STA, Breece, Waller, Brady
(Just realized Corey would have made the playoffs if Javonte and Kupp had stayed healthy.)
Anyway, Oliver steamrolled Cameron, and Cameron steamrolled Coleman and me. But at the end of the day, Cameron was the only one with no chance of winning. He’ll play for 5th place, stuck with either the 7th or 8th pick, but at least he can head into next year with a clean slate, without the karmic deficit of this year’s garbage trades weighing him down.
Oliver is one step closer to glory. This is Oliver’s first appearance in the semifinals since the 2016 season, when he and Sean both lost in the semis and then Oliver lost to Sean in the 3rd place game.
Pick Ladder Bloodbath
Aside from Oliver, Spencer and Max outscored every team playing this week. The only teams that outscored Max were Oliver, Sean, and Evan. Spencer even outscored Evan. Brian and Shelby each lost by 37, which is better than the 50 Cameron lost by, but still twice as bad as the 19 Coleman lost by. It’s even worse than twice as bad: Brian and Shelby have to play for last place now—which, okay, isn’t that different from playing for 5th place. We haven’t yet instituted a punishment for last place. I think it should be up to Brian and Shelby to decide one for this year, even if it’s something simple like, “Loser pays winners entry fee next year.” Shelby has a better team, BUT she did lose to Brian last time they played, so…
The point is: I agree with Max when he says we should do something when someone finishes in last place. I can’t imagine Brian or Shelby caring at all about finishing in last place. But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Brian wants that last bit of redemption. Maybe Shelby doesn’t want to finish the year on a seven-game losing streak, and furthermore doesn’t want to me to rehash next year how she lost twice to the second worst team in Mortydome (common era) history.
Meanwhile, didn’t I tell you Spencer’s team is good! He scored 169 despite a zero from Matt Judon, who led the league in sacks coming into this week. Trevor Lawrence had his second straight 40-point week. Najee, DMG, and Aaron Jones combined for 63, which was the dream heading into this season.
Max’s points came mostly from Jerick McKinnon and the IDPs, so I can’t really heap too much praise, but I will commend a solid week by not making fun of anything that happened, specially not the part where Jonathan Taylor left the game after two snaps but on one of those two snaps picked up 13 receiving yards, thus outperforming Allen Lazard, who played 67 snaps but only caught one pass for seven yards. Jonathan Taylor hasn’t been the worst 1st overall pick. A lot of those dudes get hurt and miss the whole season. But Taylor went from 30 FP Week 1 to basically being a flex player or being out from Weeks 2-9, then went back to being a legit starter from Weeks 10-13, but THEN when Max needed him most, during the melee, the Colts were on bye. Now he can’t even suck enough on two snaps to deliver a little cash. Pitiful.
Nobody Expects the Algiers Jameal Dillon
I want to remind everyone again that the original conceit of the Pierce for Dillon trade was that AJ Dillon would be better when our playoffs came around. The Texans would be floating face down in a swimming pool somewhere, while the Packers were still fighting, and doing so in the snow. Big Dill loves the snow. The statistics agree. He scores almost three times as many fantasy points in November/December as he does in September/October. And on Monday night, when I needed him most, when I’d already benched Rhamondre Stevenson for Gus Edwards and watched that whole shitty Ravens game, Big Dill scored two TDs and erased any chance of Coleman stealing another win in stat corrections.
I would have rather ended pretty much anyone’s season before Coleman’s, but also every team except Shelby, Brian, and Kennedy outscored me, so I will take it. I will also take the Derrick Henry revenge game coming down the barrel next week. I will suffer the comeuppance while I conduct the band to play “Nearer My God to Thee.” I will enjoy every minute of it, and I’ll do so because I still get to say I drafted Derrick Henry second overall when everyone else was afraid. I snuck my team into first class and had my adult fun, and I accept that the iceberg is coming and there’s no way to stop it and nowhere to go; I am at peace with letting go of the door and drifting to the bottom of the ocean. Allegedly, drowning is a peaceful death. I’m sure it’s less peaceful when you’re being held under by the banana-hands of Derrick Henry, but again, I’ll take it.
20 min. Adventure vs. 100 Years
Sean’s team is better than mine. His starting offense is Dalvin, Ja’Marr, Cedarian, Conner, Henry, and Andrews. Tyler Bass kicks for the best offense in the league. Nick Bosa leads the league in sacks and QB hits, and he’s second in TFLs. His LBs average more than ten tackles per game. When his DB only scores 5 FP, all it will mean is that I only lose by 50.
My starting offense is Rhamondre, Christian Kirk, Hopkins, Stevenson, Dillon, and Waller. That’s if Dillon doesn’t have a concussion, or if that concussion is “mild” enough he can play on five days’ rest. Without Dillon, my last flex spot is whatever I can’t get my hands on, since my current options are Gus, Kadarius, and Jameson, who combined for 9.4 FP last week. I’m fine starting Gus again. The Ravens won’t make the same mistake twice. The team that hasn’t changed its offense since 2019 despite that offense getting worse each year, that team won’t make the same mistake twice. Ugh, just give me the L now.
One thing we don’t know as of my writing this Wednesday morning: will Jalen Hurts play? If he doesn’t, it’s a travesty for Sean’s season and for fantasy football in general. But it’s fair for football players to get hurt. I’m possibly going on week three in a row without Lamar. I have four QBs on my roster. This is a situation you prepare for if you’re a playoff team. I’m shocked Evan doesn’t have a backup. I understand there is no “backing up” a Allen or a Hurts. But I have too much anxiety in me to just wait and see whether my QB gets hurt and then pick up a QB off the pile. There’s a reason I traded for Rodgers and then Brady and then added Goff and now added Minshew. I’m insane. No. Well, yes. BUT I’m also a control freak. No. Okay, MAYBE. The point is: I need to feel like I played the game and didn’t let the game play me. No, I’m not finding it. The truth is: Sean is fine picking a QB out of the trash if his superstar QB is unable to play. It’s just such a rough week to be put in that position, not just because of the playoffs but because the matchups are so brutal for these free agent QBs. The best matchup on paper is Sam Darnold vs. Detroit. Sean has picked up Brock Purdy and Zach Wilson. Wilson just posted 25 FP against Detroit, which looks really good for Sam Darnold. Wilson also plays on Thursday, which doesn’t give Sean time to see what happens with Hurts. The ideal pickup would have been Gardner Minshew, who: 1) is awesome, 2) has the best surrounding cast of any of these QBs, and 3) loves to throw the shit out of the football. Sean had waiver-priority over me. He had Minshew dead to rights. He chose Brock Purdy, a rookie coming off good games against terrible defenses (not that the Bucs are terrible, but the defense the Bucs were forced into playing against him was terrible). Purdy is going to face a Washington defense that’s borderline top-10 in every phase. Or Zach Wilson coming off a good game against a terrible defense, going against a Jags’ defense that’s… also pretty bad, but even after a good game, the book on Wilson is still that he’s not good enough to keep this job when Mike White gets healthy. You’re going to start Mike White’s backup with your season on the line?!
The Polar Express vs. Cum Gutters
Truly the battle of good and evil. We call Evan a villain. We even name his rivalry game the Villain Bowl and when he wins say he’s Lead Villain. But his light is undeniable. We should aspire to win the way that he wins. He drafts good football players, and then they play good football. He churns the bottom of his roster, the way a good football team does. So by the time he gets to the playoffs—which he does almost every year—he has as much depth as the guy who just traded away half of next year’s draft. Evan could have thrown a high pick at Shelby to brings Stefon Diggs aboard, which combined with Allen would have been terrifying. But Evan already has Chris Godwin just chilling on the bench. Chris Godwin is having a great season, and Evan has looked smart benching him a few times this season. Evan is playing this one straight up, and he is out only hope of a championship that wasn’t purchased with next year’s money.
Oliver is the evil here. When you rearrange the letters in his name, you get Evilor. Evan is just Vane. Or a Nave. But Oliver is Evilor. He’s almost Viler, but O, not quite. I’ll stop.
Evan is the Polar Express, cutting through capitalism’s icy heart with hot steel and the magic word Believe. But Mortydome isn’t a wholesome place. It’s a place of Fart69 and Cum Gutters. It’s a place where when I try to visit my own website using elementary school Wi-Fi, the website is blocked for “profanity.” Evil can triumph here.
In football terms, this is a battle of Mahomes vs. Allen, QBs 1 and 2, separated by just 1.5 FP in Mahomes’ favor. It’s also a battle of Kelce vs. Taysom, TEs 1 and 2, separated by just 114 FP. The one thing Evan doesn’t have, Oliver has the best of, yet these TEs scored pretty much the same amount of points last week, and Taysom had the best TE week of the season (remember? When I picked him up from free agency and he scored 44, and now I get to slap Cameron?). But look, as ho-hum as it may be, I’m focused on the RBs and WRs.
Nick Chubb vs. New Orleans is good for Chubb. The Saints can’t blow out the Browns, so Chubb will get his 20 carries against a below-average run defense. The Saints can’t focus their game plan on stopping Chubb because the Browns’ playaction is too good.
Saquon vs. Minnesota is not as clear. Minnesota’s defense is not good, but they can blow out the Giants, and they can focus their gameplan on stopping Barkley, forcing Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, and Richie James to beat them instead. Still, we should see 25 touches for Barkley for a bare minimum 10 FP and unlimited ceiling.
CMC vs. Washington is extremely interesting because Washington has the best front four in the league, with Chase Young probably coming back for this game in San Francisco. The ‘Ders also have speed at LB and downfield attacking safeties. It is a bad matchup for CMC, but does it matter? If he’s getting his 25 touches, he’s got the same high floor and limitless ceiling as Barkley.
Evan has to choose among Miles, Zeke, and Raheem as his second flex (assuming he starts AJ, Amon-Ra, and Godwin).
Miles Sanders vs. Dallas is too risky. We don’t know what the Eagles’ offense is going to look like with Jalen Hurts’ shoulder/collarbone situation.
Raheem Mostert vs. Green Bay is awesome if Jeff Wilson sits again, granted any part of Mostert’s soft tissue could explode at any second. Still, Mostert just had 22 FP in Buffalo in December. This week’s game is in Miami against a much worse defense.
Ezekiel Elliott is the most consistent 15 FP you can get, and I would start him against anybody. Dallas is so balanced and so versatile that lanes always emerge for Zeke, who has scored a TD in seven straight games. Even against a tough Eagles’ defense, Zeke feels like a lock for 10 FP with two-TD upside.
Oliver has to choose among DK, Keenan, Pacheco, Swift, Evans, and Pittman for two WR spots and a flex. I’m ruling out Aiyuk and Slayton because they’re frankly not as good and don’t mesh well with starting CMC and Saquon, especially on low-volume pass offenses.
Pacheco vs. Seattle means playing a timeshare RB against the league’s worst run defense. Jerick McKinnon has scored almost 60 FP over the last two weeks, while Pacheco has scored 30. McKinnon is out-snapping and out-touching Pacheco. BUT this is happening while the game is close or the Chiefs are trailing. If the Chiefs jump out to an early lead and the Seahawks can’t catch up, Pacheco could see 25 carries and more opportunities for first downs, breakaway runs, and touchdowns. It will be about ten degrees in KC this weekend. That weather favors the traditional run game.
Swift vs. Carolina is an interesting matchup, but ultimately Swift is too risky. At least Pacheco has half of a timeshare. Swift is only getting one-third of the Lions’ backfield work. Plus, Carolina is better against the run than Seattle. Swift can outscore Pacheco no problem. He’s a dynamic player. But we’re gambling money on sports. We need to take guarantees where we can get them.
So if you’re going Pacheco over Swift, you still have to decide whether you have three WRs worth starting over Pacheco.
DK @ KC feels great until you think about it. The Seahawks are underdogs who will be down big and have to throw a lot. But again, the temperature will be 10 degrees. The ball will be insanely hard. DK doesn’t have great hands. He could totally choke.
Keenan vs. Indy should mean Keenan gets shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. I don’t love that. But Keenan is an elite route runner with elite hands, and Herbert targets him heavily.
Pittman @ the Chargers feels great, too. The Chargers’ defense is whatever, and Ryan targets Pittman heavily. Plus the Colts have started using Pittman on jet sweeps just to get him the ball even more. Volume wins.
Mike Evans @ Arizona is great for Evans. The Cardinals are a total mess, the Bucs need to win, and it’s been the right amount of time since Evans’ last deep TD. Just do it. But also expect an Evans-Godwin matchup to favor Godwin in 90% of matchups.
So we’ve narrowed the field to three WRs and one RB for two WR spots and a flex. I’m not going to say what I would do. I don’t want that kind of voodoo out there.
Mahomes and Allen are going to play against bad teams in 10-degree weather. Mahomes plays a worse defense, and his head coach is more likely to balance run-pass. The Bills are eager to prove their team is built for winter football, with continued emphasis on this being Josh Allen’s football team. My simple expectation is Allen outscoring Mahomes by 10, which would be significant in an otherwise tight matchup.
Let’s talk about IDPs. At this point in the season, you need to heed the lessons of Moneyball, specifically when it comes to your IDPs. For the regular season, you mostly want to pick a good player and ride his wave, unless he starts to suck. Like, you take a 3-FP game every now and then, but you don’t take three in a row. You also don’t try to rotate IDPs every time one lets you down. But in playoff time, that IDP crew can swing your matchup. Kicker, too. It’s time to chase upside. In the postseason, you’re going to wish you had Carlos Peña instead of Scott Hatteberg.
Target sacks and interceptions. Don’t neglect tackles completely, but don’t chase tackles. If you chase tackles and don’t get them, you probably don’t get anything. If you chase sacks and interceptions, you should at least get a few tackles (or PDs), with the upside of scoring 20 FP.
First, look for bad offenses, or at least bad QBs. Rams, Panthers, Broncos, Pats, Texans, Zach Wilson, Colt McCoy/Trace McSorley, rookie Desmond Ridder. Justin Fields is good, but the Bears’ offense is extremely volatile, allowing six sacks to the Eagles last week. The Titans have a terrible pass offense. So let’s break down each of these teams’ matchups:
The Rams and Broncos play each other on Christmas Day. These offensive lines are bad. The QBs will take sacks and then also force throws in order to not take sacks. Also they’ll just do stupid stuff. Leonard Floyd had two sacks last week, Jalen Ramsey forced and recovered a fumble, and Greg Gaines had six tackles and a sack. On Denver’s side, Justin Simmons has four INTs in his last three games. DeShawn Williams has 4.5 sacks in that same timeframe. Pat Surtain has picks in consecutive games. Randy Gregory just came back from IR last week, so his playing time should go up this week.
The Panthers play the Lions. Lions’ rookie DL Aidan Hutchinson has had a 3-sack game, and he has two INTs already. He gets Carolina this week and Chicago next week. Romeo Okwara just came back from IR two weeks ago, and he had two sacks last week.
The Pats play the Bengals in 10-degree weather. The Bengals have lost Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard in consecutive weeks, which has given more playing time to explosive pass-rusher Joseph Ossai. More importantly, Logan Wilson is still a free agent. He is arguably a top-10 LB normally, and then Bengals have used him in more blitzes the past two weeks. Jessie Bates offers similar INT upside to Justin Simmons.
The Texans and Titans play each other in Tennessee in a division matchup, granted the Texans are very much eliminated. Also 10-degree weather here. The Texans have been very feisty, taking the Cowboys and Chiefs to the wire in back-to-back games. Derrick Henry has rushed for 200 yards in four consecutive games against the Texans, meaning two at home and two on the road. In 10-degree weather, tackling Derrick Henry is as unappealing as it can possibly be. But someone has to tackle him, yeah? No, don’t chase tackles! But do consider that the Titans allow a ton of penetration up front on all downs and designs. The Texans got back Jonathan Greenard from IR last week, meaning he should be back to full-time starting this week. Greenard has played in just one full game against the Titans, posting nine tackles in the final game of his rookie year. In his sophomore year, Greenard had eight sacks. If that’s too dicey, Texans’ rookie Jalen Pitre has all the makings of a superstar safety, and he’s had double-digit FP in four straight games. He also had a 26-FP game earlier this year. On the Titans’ side, it starts with Jeffery Simmons. The Texans set a decent edge on offense, but the interior is rough. Simmons can break right through and swallow up relatively weak RBs like Burkhead, Ogunbowale, and Royce Freeman.
Zach Wilson plays the Jags on Thursday night. The obvious answer is Jags’ DL Josh Allen, who has sacks in each of his last two games. He’s heating up, the Jags are heating up, the Jets are just terrible with Wilson at the helm, so yeah, bet on Josh Allen. If Travon Walker sits again, you might also bet on Arden Key, who also has sacks in his last two games. If you’re targeting INTs, the best bets are rangy safety Andre Cisco and the most likely WR to shadow Garrett Wilson, CB Tyson Campbell.
The Cardinals dumpster fire plays at home against the Bucs on Christmas night. Actually, the player I want most in this matchup is JJ Watt applying interior pressure on Brady, who’s just down to eat a sack every other drive now. But given the conceit of the piece, let’s focus on Bucs’ defenders. We’re starting the LBs anyway, but let’s also start Carlton Davis against Nuk Hopkins. Davis had 21 FP going against mostly Ja’Marr Chase last week. I am interested in so many Bucs’ defenders that I will probably just stay away from having to choose just one. But if you have a feeling about a guy, take a shot.
Desmond Ridder plays at Baltimore, so yeah, give me all of that. Give me Marlon Humphrey shadowing Drake London, give me rookie Kyle Hamilton heating up, and give me DL Justin Madubuike and LB Tyus Bowser attacking the Falcons’ weak spots on o-line.
The Bears play at home against Buffalo, so I’m keeping Greg Rousseau one more week, and I could be talked into Ed Oliver or Shaq Lawson if I didn’t have Rousseau. For INT potential, obviously Tre’Davious White, but Taron Johnson is a sneaky play. He’s racked up a lot of stats this season, but so far just one INT. I remember Taron Johnson as the guy who pick-sixed Lamar to bounce the Ravens from the playoffs two years ago.
Finally, if you just want to go get the nastiest dudes available, sleeper’s IDP projections have gotten much better this year. The top-projected players are really the top guys available. A few names I’d add to the mix: Yannick Ngakoue, Jayron Kearse, Chase Young, Haason Reddick, Azeez Ojulari, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Chandler Jones.
So that’s like 50 names, but still. Take a shot on an IDP. Corey taught us this lesson with Cam Jordan last season. Corey added Jordan the day of the game, Jordan scored 25, and Corey won by 19. You might say, “I don’t know; that’s a lot of cushion,” but Corey’s other DL Myles Garrett scored 2 FP, and Corey’s LB Jordan Hicks scored just 1 FP. It matters!
Lyfe is Short vs. Krombopulos Michael
Kirk Cousins is coming off two straight weeks of 30+ FP, his only such games of the season. Justin Herbert is coming off the second worst game of his career, the second time ever he’s failed to hit double digits in Mortydome. And it was against a defense missing seven starters. Coleman has the psychological advantage this week, as Herbert plays on Monday night. Cameron undercuts that advantage a little bit by having Mike Williams on Monday night as well. As with all of Cameron’s matchups, this one will come down to how much the Raiders force the ball to Jacobs and Adams.
Coleman’s team is falling apart, but injuries have mostly helped him this year. An injury to Rashaad Penny made Ken Walker a bell-cow. An injury to Mark Ingram put more work on Kamara’s plate. Now, injuries to Walker and Olave might force Coleman to start Tyler Allgeier and two TEs, specifically the two TEs Coleman acquired at the trade deadline. That’s just what you have to do. I’m not saying it will lead to a win, but I think it’s how you leave the season with the least regret.
Cameron’s QB carousel continues, as he hopefully benches Cousins for Tua this week. Kirk Cousins is bad against pressure, and the Giants’ defense brings the most pressure (well, blitzes the most) of any team in the league. Cousins is going to take sacks and throw picks. GRANTED, he took seven sacks and threw two picks against Indy and still managed almost 40 FP. It just feels like a trap. Maybe the explanation is that the Vikings will be emotionally hungover from completing the biggest comeback in NFL history. Maybe they’re looking ahead to the Packers and Bears in the two weeks following this one. Maybe Kirk Cousins is conflicted about engaging in bloodsport on the eve of Jesus’ birthday. Tua plays at home against a weak Packers’ defense, and the Dolphins are coming off a tight division loss. I just lean toward the easier narrative.
If I were Cameron, I would not keep doing the Amari Cooper thing. Crypto and Etienne have safer floors and higher ceilings. I would also bounce TJ Edwards finally, as he hasn’t scored double-digit FP in five weeks.
Coleman is the underdog in this game. He doesn’t have as much star power, and aside from Jefferson, his players just aren’t posting explosive numbers. He needs big weeks from Herbert, McLaurin, Jefferson, and Kamara, at minimum, and he needs to hope Seattle features Ken Walker in the passing game instead of Travis Homer. He needs to get rid of Duron Harmon already. I don’t care for whom. Just get something slightly more exciting in there. Go back to Sauce! Reclaim your identity! Ultimately, Coleman’s best chance of winning is continued excellence from Maxx and Micah. But it will be interesting to see if Cameron’s ace in the hole Marcus Jones can flirt with 20 FP for the third time in four weeks.
Piss Master vs. Roy
It’s cool to have Justin Fields and Dak Prescott until you have to choose between them in a week where they face two of the league’s best five defenses. Mercifully, Kennedy gets to play against Derek Carr, who maxes out at 29 FP. Fields’ rushing upside is enough to match Carr, and when you look beyond the QB position, Max’s chances only get worse.
I’m hoping Kennedy has yet to set his lineup. Lenny and DJ need to be involved this week, especially over D’Onta Foreman and Brian Robinson. The simple stories: Foreman lacks explosion from a previous injury and is hampered by a current injury. Robinson is going against the #1 run defense. Lenny is still half of the Bucs’ timeshare, playing against a broken Cardinals’ team. DJ Moore is finally scoring TDs.
Kennedy, please don’t play Tyler Conklin coming off a game where another Jets’ TE scored two TDs. Especially don’t do it on a Thursday night. Go get a more exciting TE, like Greg Dulcich, Juwan Johnson, or Trey McBride.
Max’s success hinges on Jerick McKinnon scoring 30 FP. This is not a good week for that strategy, as the Chiefs will get the lead early and hang onto it all game. However, the Seahawks’ LBs are brutally bad at covering RBs, so maybe it’s another awesome McKinnon game. You can’t bench him. You also can’t expect him to save you again. We might finally get the Big Gabe Davis Game this week, as the Bears have nobody capable of matching Davis’ size or speed.
Max needs to bench Browns’ backup RB and grab something with sex appeal out of free agency. Max, I am going to say it over and over again: drain the pus from your bench and get some keepers. Get a grip on our keeper rules. You can’t keep Jonathan Taylor or Tyreek Hill. You can only keep one of Breece Hall, Gabe Davis, and Kareem Hunt. Your only semi-legitimate late keepers right now are Jerick McKinnon, Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and Alex Highmsith, who will all be available in the late rounds next year. I guess you have David Njoku as an enticing late keeper option, but dammit, get more.
A short list of interesting late-keeper fliers:
QB – Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Russell Wilson
RB – James Robinson, Jaylen Warren, Hassan Haskins
WR – Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Courtland Sutton, Parris Campbell, Mecole Hardman, Hunter Renfrow, KJ Osborn, Josh Palmer, Brandin Cooks, Romeo Doubs
TE – Dulcich, Juwan, McBride
IDP – not really worth it; maybe Joey Bosa?
Anyway, go take swings. Kenyan Drake, a second kicker, and Jonathan Taylor do absolutely nothing for you.
Going back2back vs. C’mon Football
Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence is as good a QB matchup as Mahomes-Allen.
Burrow @NE and Trevor @NYJ, in the cold and wind, not so much. But the weather and the matchup favor Burrow. The Pats have a good defense, but the Jets have a great defense. New England will be 20 degrees, but the Meadowlands will be windy and wet. The Jags have a good set of skill players, but the Bengals have a great set of skill players. Spencer luckily has one of those skill players. Any TD Burrow throws to Higgins favors Spencer.
Spencer’s roster is as solid as ever, and Corey’s kind of packing it in. Well, we’ll see. Corey has a lot of fat on his bench, and he needs to replace Tyler Lockett in his lineup. If Corey simply plugs in Travis Homer, and Spencer is starting Najee, DMG, and Aaron Jones, this matchup tilts way in Spencer’s favor. Generally speaking, it’s a close matchup, but Spencer’s lineup feels a lot more explosive, a lot more likely to flirt with 20 FP apiece across those top five skill players. Corey needs huge games from Burrow, DeVonta, and Waddle, plus a huge game from whoever he taps to replace Lockett. I might throw in Parris Campbell for a little Monday night magic.
Peaking vs. You’re Doing it Wrong
It’s only fitting these two teams would have their seasons come down to this. Shelby named her team after Brian’s inability to join a Zoom call. Brian’s team failed to join the call to… score… points. Sorry. Shelby’s team ultimately lived up to its own name, going from 5-4 to 5-9, finding itself on the brink of last place. It would be Shelby’s second last-place finish, her first since 2016. It would be Brian’s first time finishing last, which is really how this season should end. Either way, the result of this matchup will snap one of the league’s two longest active losing streak. Will Shelby snap her six-game losing streak, or will Brian snap his nine-game losing streak? Shelby scored 340 more FP than Brian in the regular season. She scored 11 more FP than him last week. Brian has outscored Shelby three times this season: when he beat her 105-86 in Week 3 for his first win this year, then again in Weeks 5 and 12. During her losing streak, Shelby is averaging 127 FP per week; Brian is averaging 118 in that span.
Brian has jumped on the karmic grenade for us, but by starting the grenade every week, it feels like it’s either a genuine attempt to score points or a cry for attention. I’m not a fan. I’m also not a fan of benching Jags’ #1 WR Zay Jones for… Nelson Agholor? What are we doing? What’s crazy: Nelson Aghlor scored 0.3 in Brian’s lineup last week; Zay scored 32 on the bench. The difference was not enough to give Brian the win. Anyway.
Shelby’s got Geno in a game where he should throw 40 times, Diggs against an inexperienced Bears’ secondary, Jeudy establishing himself as WR1, Rachaad White completing his evolution into prime David Johnson in Arizona, George Kittle playing security blanket for Brock Purdy, and JuJu coming off back-to-back 10-target games.
Brian’s got the grenade, Chuba becoming RB1 in Carolina, banged-up Diontae, Hot Knox, Akers firmly back to starting RB numbers, Drake London coming off two 10-target games, and his choice between Zay Jones @NYJ or Alec Pierce vs. LAC. Pierce had exactly zero FP in his last game but 17 FP the game before. What I like: Nick Foles swinging his dick around on a Monday night. Pierce is the Colts’ best deep threat, the Colts should be in a shootout with a Chargers’ team eager to prove they have a legit passing game with, you know, one of the league’s best arms and all. In a vacuum I would take Zay, but I’d rather take Pierce in a dome on a Monday than Zay on a Thursday in the wind and rain.
I think that’s everything. Good luck this week. If you feel like you’re not playing for anything, then at least play for the cash. Go nuts with those sixth-round-or-later guys. We’ve got 20 more dollars to give out before we crown a champion.
