Last year, there was one trade, and I only made it so that there wouldn’t be zero trades.
This year, there were 20, and only half of them were made by Oliver last night. Let’s hash out all of the trades, going from worst to best:
20. Sean receives Ja’Marr; Cameron receives Mike Williams and Crypto
In their first week on their new teams, Chase scored 11 FP, while Williams and Patterson scored 28 (and Cameron beat me by 22). Since the trade, each of these players missed at least four games, but Chase scored 95, Patterson 77, and Williams 59. Sean has gotten 100% of those Chase points, while Cameron has gotten 56 from Williams (none since Week 7) and 55 from Patterson (benched the last two weeks).
19. Cameron receives Amari Cooper; Max receives Melvin Gordon
I support bailing on the Browns, but not like this. Cameron gets a little bit of redemption but mostly just adds to his flex pile.
18. Kennedy receives D’Onta Foreman; Doak receives Chuba Hubbard (and then promptly drops him)
Kennedy offered the trade as a gag, and I accepted it as a gag, and then Foreman ripped off games of 17, 37, 3, 25, 4, and 16. Foreman will probably go splat in the playoffs, but I’ll take the L. I knew he was awesome and was betting more on the Panthers being stupid than was fair.
17. Coleman receives Rashaad Penny and Dameon Pierce; Doak receives AJ Dillon and Justin Tucker
Arguably the worst trade of the year. At the time, I was giving Coleman two starting RBs for a timeshare RB and a kicker. Penny got hurt immediately, though, and Dillon is coming on while Pierce is fading. But at face-value, it’s still two starting RBs for a a timeshare RB and a kicker.
16. Oliver receives CJ Mosley; Doak receives Khalil Mack
I didn’t even play Mack before dropping him the next week. Mosley has scored 16, 12, 10, 13, and 6.
15. Oliver receives a 13th Round pick; Doak receives Aaron Rodgers
I would have won without Rodgers, but I was stuck in an airport trying to have some fun. Also it ended up being Rodgers highest FP of the season.
14. Doak receives Tom Brady; Max receives Aaron Rodgers and a 14th
Aaron Rodgers is my least favorite player not involved in heinous crimes against women. I needed to get rid of him. Tom Brady has outscored him 45 to 29 in the last two weeks, and without Lamar, I’m grateful to have Brady, even with his 25-FP ceiling.
13. Spencer receives a 3rd; Oliver receives Mike Evans
Mike Evans hasn’t scored double-digit points since Week 8. Maybe he’s due, or maybe he’s done. Not done done, but also not Brady’s favorite target and not in an offense that generates a lot of fantasy points. Oliver’s team isn’t loaded; it’s bloated. It’s Elvis after the fun stopped. Mike Evans is one too many fried peanut-butter-banana sandwiches.
12. Oliver receives D’Andre Swift and Michael Pittman; Brian receives a 9th and 13th
Technically this is the worst trade, but it’s largely insignificant to the rest of us. Oliver has created a headache for himself. He’ll start CMC and Saquon every week. And then he’ll choose three starters among DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, Evans, Pittman, Pacheco, Swift, and Aiyuk (with Slayton in the shadows). That’s less than half! It’s not that hard to pick and say “whatever happens,” but it’s a nightmare watching points roll in on your bench if they’re not also rolling into your lineup.
11. Doak receives Derwin James; Brian receives a 12th
It’s good value for Derwin but otherwise unlikely to resonate.
10. Sean receives Derrick Henry; Doak receives a 4th
Derrick Henry is #2 in RB scoring, but in the last four weeks, he scored 7, 31, 10, and 4. Sean didn’t even want to give up a 4th, which is why the trade happened just two hours before the deadline. I love Henry, but I couldn’t keep him. The Lamar injury ruined my confidence, and I had to sell.
9. Spencer receives a 5th; Coleman receives Dallas Goedert
Goedert is the third best TE in fantasy. He should be back for Week 15. He plays for the best team in football. It’s not a terrible overpay if Goedert gets you double digits each week.
8. Coleman receives Gerald Everett; Doak receives a 10th
This is true neutral. The only way anyone loses is if Everett scores extremely high or low.
7. Sean receives Alexander Mattison; Brian receives a 14th
Apparently Brian would have taken a 13th for Swift, so this is a massive overpay for Mattison. Good on Brian for hoodwinking Sean and clogging a contender’s bench spot.
6. Spencer receives Trevor Lawrence; Kennedy receives Dak and Hollywood
This year’s first trade came in Week 3. Lawrence has been good all but three of the ten weeks Spencer has started him. At the time of the trade, we didn’t know whether Dak would miss five weeks or ten weeks. We didn’t know anything. Hollywood was very good with Hopkins out and won this trade for Kennedy. Having Dak encouraged Kennedy to move on from Mahomes, and I don’t think he’d have the same confidence in Lawrence. Speaking of…
5. Oliver receives Mahomes; Kennedy receives Fields and a conditional 2nd
At the time of the trade, we didn’t know when Fields would play again. Fields played the very next game, outscoring Mahomes, but Fields’ next four weeks are BYE, PHI, BUF, @DET. That’s a gauntlet, but Kennedy can just start Dak against HOU, @JAX, PHI… oh shit. Week 16 is brutal. Buffalo isn’t as daunting sans Von, but they’re still semi-stacked and very well-coached. The Jacksonville game for Dak at least gives Kennedy an out if he’s afraid of starting Fields vs. Philly. The 2nd Rounder is already gravy, and it becomes a 1st if Oliver wins it all. There is a timeline where Kennedy gets next year’s #1 QB and a 1st Round pick.
4. Oliver receives DK Metcalf; Doak receives a 4th
I went from a team of alphas to barely being able to set a lineup. But I’m picking three times in the fourth round next year, possibly even three in a row.
3. Sean gets CeeDee Lamb; Brian gets a conditional 3rd
The 3rd becomes a 1st if Sean wins the championship. This trade gets high marks because it was a bold stroke being the first playoff-push trade.
2. Corey receives Deebo Samuel; Cameron receives TJ Hockenson
In an otherwise unhinged deadline, I need to celebrate a sane trade that benefits both parties. Corey had Freiermuth playing over Hock anyway, so Deebo feels like a massive upgrade. I don’t even know who Cameron was starting at TE.
1. Sean receives Nick Bosa; Corey receives a 10th
IDPs should have gotten more deadline action. Sean gets one of the best available, and he should have had to pay a higher pick. However, if Sean wins it all, Corey gets first dibs on next year’s late keepers. It does hurt Corey’s playoff chances, though.
I feel like I missed a trade but don’t feel like vetting the list again. Instead, I’m going to commend some non-trades:
1. Shelby receives Integrity; Mortydome receives Minor Redemption
Shelby didn’t get a good enough offer for Diggs, so she didn’t sell out. I respect it. I would have done the same with Henry if he were as consistent as Diggs. Assuming Kennedy and Oliver and Cameron lock up the last three playoff spots, Shelby might be the favorite to win the pick ladder.
2. Evan receives Confidence; Mortydome receives Panic
Evan didn’t trade shit because his team is already loaded. This almost makes me want to root for Evan, almost bumps him down to 3rd in the Mortydome Villain Power Rankings, honestly might even knock him to 4th, with Corey’s keeper freeze bumping him into the top three.
3. Max receives Indifference
It’s just funny to me that Max’s team is so average that he couldn’t buy or sell at the deadline. The only desirable asset is an undesirable human being. Max has the worst non-zero playoff odds.
Wait, no. Max has Jonathan Taylor. I assume nobody made an offer. This should be bulletin board material for Max. I hope this ignites a fire that fuels a playoff berth. It would be a good story for Max’s first full season.
Sleeper does not make clear what the tiebreakers are for playoff seeding. I assume it’s points. Here are the standings and points entering Week 14:
The Clinched
1. Evan: 10-3, 2062
2. Sean: 10-3, 2003
3. Coleman: 9-4, 1951
The Easy In
4. Cameron: 7-6, 2036
The Clenched
5. Oliver: 7-6, 1867
6. Kennedy: 6-7, 1986
7. Doak: 6-7, 1918
The Long Shots
8. Corey: 6-7, 1809
9. Max: 6-7, 1806
The Toast
10. Shelby: 5-8, 1780
11. Spencer: 4-9, 1685
The Fart
12. Fart69: 2-11, 1445
Remember, the top two teams in each bracket get bye weeks. So right now Evan and Sean would have playoff byes, while Corey and I would have ladder byes. The bye week is fucking huge. In simple statistics, your chance of winning three consecutive games is 12.5%. At face-value, the bye week doubles your chance of winning the championship. The top two seeds in the pick ladder are guaranteed top-4 picks in next year’s draft. The top two playoff seeds are guaranteed not to pick 7th or 8th (which, fine, might be more bug than feature).
I love the Week 14 melee. It keeps everything in play. There is a scenario where every team that wins this week has either already clinched or been eliminated. It’s highly unlikely since the worst team sold off its best remaining players, but still! Possible! Let’s start there:
The Rat King is Dead
Evan, Sean, Coleman, Shelby, Spencer, Fart win;
Cameron, Oliver, Kennedy, Doak, Corey, Max lose
In this scenario, Cameron and Oliver lock up seeds 4 and 5. The 6-seed comes down to points between Kennedy and me. My deficit is 68, meaning shit would have to go down for Kennedy to miss the playoffs. Here. The real intrigue would be whether Max outscore Corey by 4 FP with a bye on the line.
Long Live the Rat King
Cameron, Oliver, Kennedy, Doak, Corey, Max win
yada yada
Nothing changes from the other scenario. I just like saying Rat King. This is dumb. I’m just going back to the team-by-team format that works.
Tiny Rick
Evan leads Sean and Coleman by 59 and 101 FP, respectively.
If Evan wins, he gets a bye.
If Evan loses, he needs to lose by 102 to Coleman.
Evan’s season-low was 117 in Week 9.
In-N-Out 20min. Adventure
Sean leads Coleman by 52 FP
Sean wins, he gets a bye.
Sean loses, he needs to lose to Coleman by 53.
Sean’s season-low was 102 in Week 7, but Sean has scored 180+ in three of the last four weeks. The other week, he scored 162.
Krombopulos Michael
Coleman leads Cameron by two games.
If Coleman loses, he locks in the 3-seed.
If Coleman wins, he needs hella points or hella luck to steal a bye. There is a small chance Coleman takes the top seed, which is better than the 2-seed because our playoffs use “re-seeding,” meaning the 1-seed automatically plays the lowest remaining seed in Round 2. Coleman has to play the melee with Kamara, Olave, and McLaurin on bye, plus Ken Walker will probably sit out with a “jammed ankle,” whatever that is.
Lyfe is Short
Cameron leads Kennedy by 49 FP.
He leads Oliver and me by 159 and 118, respectively.
If Cameron wins, he’s the 4-seed.
If Cameron loses, here’s the deal:
Oliver loses, Kennedy loses, Cam’s the 4-seed.
O wins, K loses, Cam’s the 5-seed.
O wins, K wins AND outscores Cam by 50, Cam’s the 6-seed.
I don’t feel like I can realistically overcome Cam’s lead in the points, but if Cameron loses, AND Oliver wins, AND Kennedy and I win and overcome Cam’s points, Cam misses the playoffs. I give that scenario like a 0.0001 chance of happening.
Side note: with Coleman almost certainly entering the playoffs with the 3-seed, the most enticing spot (among the three openings) is the 6-seed. Coleman’s been getting by despite the disappearances of Kamara and Pierce. Even with lineup fixtures Jefferson, Olave, and McLaurin holding it down, Coleman has to start some combination of Kamara, Pierce, Chark, and Gallup, or attempt to become the second consecutive champion to win it all starting two TEs. Basically if I were Cameron, I might position myself to lose.
Cum Gutters
Oliver leads the Rat King (K, D, JCor, Max) by a game.
He trails Kennedy and me by 119 and 51 respectively.
He leads Corey and Max by 57 and 61 respectively.
If Oliver wins, he’s in.
If he wins and Cam loses, Oliver is the 4-seed.
If Cam wins, Oliver’s 5-seed at best.
If Oliver loses, all bets are off.
If he loses, plus K & D win, O is out.
If Max/Corey win plus cover the spread, O could finish 9th, not even getting a ladder bye—but at least he’ll still be playing for the 1st overall pick, with easily the best team in the field, with an added bonus of being able to reduce the value of the 2nd he traded Kennedy to its absolute minimum (not to mention the 4th he traded me).
If I were Oliver, I would simply win.
Rat King or ROY King?
Kennedy trails Cam and Oliver by one game.
He trails Cam 50 FP.
Kennedy leads Max, Corey, and me by 180, 177, and 69 respectively, but that only matters if Kennedy wins or all four of us lose like tangled up gutter trash we are.
If Kennedy wins, he’s in
UNLESS I also win and cover the 69-point spread.
If Kennedy loses, he’s out
UNLESS Max, Corey, and me lose.
Kennedy can get as high as the 4-seed if:
K wins, Cam and O lose, K covers the 50-spread over Cam.
Kennedy gets the 5-seed if:
K wins, O loses (assuming D doesn’t win plus cover)
K wins, O wins, Cam loses (plus the spread)
Kennedy gets a ladder bye unless:
he loses AND the Rat King wins
AJ Dillon 100 Years
I cut my legs off shipping off DK and Derrick. I think Hopkins has been my best/most consistent player, but still, I’m a solid 20% worse. I believe anything can happen. Scoring 99 last week because of injuries and gamescript eliminating starting RBs, Jesus I see what you’ve done for me, and I want that for others.
If I lose, I’m out, except in an insane scenario where K, Cor, and Max all lose and I somehow cover the 69-point spread over K.
I lead Corey and Max by 108 and 105 respectively.
If I win and Kennedy loses, I am in the playoffs. This would make me laugh but then realize I would rather have Metcalf and Henry than two 4ths. Everett I can do without. Dulcich is a dude.
If I win and cover the spread I’m in. Hard to see how I will do that starting dudes off the street at QB, TE, and FX this week, but I always the beauty of Mortydome is there are legit starters in free agency every week, especially at QB. Am I really putting the chips on Snoop Huntley? I am definitely looking at Cousins and Goff (who are playing each other’s atrocious pass defense) and thinking about making a change. Hell, I’m ready to start Tom Brady on the road against an elite defense just for the possibility that Brock Purdy gives the Bucs the ball in favorable field position multiple times. I have achieved weightlessness. There is no wrong decision, only a collection of potential guesses with infinite outcomes. I am become light.
(For the sake of covering bases, I can get as high as the 5-seed if Oliver and Kennedy lose. I can drop all the way to 9th if I lose AND Corey and Max win.)
Goingback2back
Maybe he is!
Corey trails Oliver by 57 FP
He leads Max by 3 (statistically, zero).
If Corey loses, he’s out. He can’t cover the spread against Kennedy.
If Corey wins, he still needs help.
Corey gets the 5-seed if with a win and:
O loses (Cor covers), K loses, D loses, and Cor covers Max
Corey gets the 6-seed with a win and:
Whole Rat King loses (or Max doesn’t cover) OR
O loses (Cor covers), two of Rat King lose
Corey can finish
Corey would somehow be in the position of only having one starting RB and having that starting RB on bye in the last week of the regular season. So it looks like we’ll see whoever starts for the Seahawks also start for Corey. Not terrible, but I get flashbacks to this one time I started two Seattle RBs in a timeshare one week and they combined for under 10 FP. Corey has Burrow and some amazing WRs, and he was fifth in scoring last week.
(Based on last week’s scoring, melee wins would have gone to Sean, Evan, Cameron, Kennedy, Corey, and Oliver, which… all I’ll say is it seems nearly impossible for the same six teams to be the top six teams any two weeks in a row. I’m sure it’s an easy formula. I just don’t know it off the top of my head. Or those are our six playoff teams and the rest of us can sleep easier knowing it’s already over.)
Piss Master
Max trails Oliver by one game.
He trails Corey by 3 (or zero), Oliver by 61, and me by 108.
Max’s scenarios are exactly the same as Corey’s. The difference is three points. The difference is also talent on their rosters. Max is starting Derek Carr, two trash assholes, Gabe Davis, Tyler Higbee, Adam Thielen, and Jerick McKinnon on offense (unless Rondale Moore is healthy, I guess?). It’s bleak. And yet, anything can happen. This could be the week that Adam Thielen and Gabe Davis combine for six TDs, with another six TDs from his other guys, with Derek Carr dropping 4 TDs on a broken Rams team. Nick Chubb could get hurt or sick and the Browns backup RB could show how much chemistry he has with the Browns QB, connecting through their shared view of women as mere vessels for sex and violence. Possible!
To make the playoffs, Max needs to win, and the Rat King needs to lose.
To get a ladder bye, Max needs to outscore Corey by 4 FP.
Max can finish 10th if he loses, Shelby wins, and Shelby covers 26 FP.
You’re Doing it Wrong
“I found that if you have a goal, that you might not reach it. But if you don't have one, then you are never disappointed. And I gotta tell ya it feels phenomenal.” Vince Vaughn.
Shelby can’t make the playoffs, but she can tie the Rat King. She can also achieve a ladder bye and secure a top-4 pick in the draft. She needs to win, first, and she needs to cover 26 and 29 against Max and Corey. Remember when Shelby chose to play Corey because she didn’t want to play me two times in such a short span? (And am I really attempting to gloat coming off a 99-FP week? Let’s move on.)
Shelby can fall to 11th if she loses and Spe wins and Spe covers 95 FP.
C’mon Football
By getting a 3rd for Mike Evans, Spencer has already won. In hindsight, I wish I had offered a pittance for Najee Harris to replace Derrick Henry. Anyway, Spencer can’t get a ladder bye. He’ll need to win to get a top-4 pick, and he’ll need to win again to get top-2, and he’ll need to win again to get #1. I need to hit a certain word count to get the paragraphs more or less even among these teams.
Fart69
Brian sold it all and will need to make a bunch of moves just to set a lineup. One thing about Mortydome: even when our teams have no chance, we set full lineups. We set full lineups, Brian. We put a player playing in a game in every spot in our lineup. We drop Robert Tonyan and Chase Claypool and Bobby Okereke and figure it out.
Of course, Brian is locked into 12th place, but he’s only picking 6th if he loses in Weeks 15 and 16. He could still win the #1 pick. The points are out there. You can start anybody, and nobody will judge you. But for the love of Morty, set a full lineup this week.
Piss Master 136 – 99 Purge Planet
Remember when I said I would start Tom Brady and didn’t? Remember when I regretted benching AJ Dillon against Coleman two weeks ago? Well, starting Brady and Dillon over Lamar and Gus would have gotten me a win, would have prevented me from selling DK and Derrick, would have changed the course of Mortydome. Instead, I scored a season-low 99 and became entangled in a Rat King. Meanwhile, Max stayed the course, started his best players, and kept himself in the playoff chase.
Cum Gutters 153 – 115 C’mon Football
Spencer suffered injuries to Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Jones, and Hayden Hurst. Lawrence and Jones returned to their games but played like ass. Hurst was gone for good after 1.2 FP. BUT Spencer still has a good team, and shipping off Evans opens a lineup spot for James Cook, who might challenge Tee Higgins for Spencer’s early keeper next season. Cook plays when the Bills have a lead, at least that’s the trend we’ve seen over the last three weeks. In a tight Detroit game, Cook was very much Singletary’s backup. Because Cook is small, or at least he plays small, and he doesn’t demonstrate ideal ball-security. Still, he’s undeniably the Bills best overall RB, and the Bills are favored in every game they play. Getting a lead and giving more action to Cook is very much in the cards.
Oliver had kind of a lot of mediocre performances, but Mahomes, Saquon, Keenan, Pacheco, and CMC combined for 100. That’s the recipe. You have five players combined for 100, you only need the other seven to combine for 50. Can Oliver count on this every week? Kind of. He spent everything he had to acquire another six players who can combine for 100 any given week. He can’t play all of them and probably should have shown some restraint, but fuck it. If he wins, he can make a rule that somehow lets him compete without any draft picks—vampire, anyone? I believe in the dream.
In-N-Out 188 – 112 No Price Too Low
Jalen Hurts led all players in scoring, and my Singletary over Latavius advice was good! We all win! I’m part of this! This is the kind of dominance a team needs to display in the home stretch. Sean’s lowest-scoring player was his DL, who still had 5.5 FP. His other three IDPs combined for 44.
Brian’s best player was Bobby Wagner, who scored 25 in a revenge game against Seattle. It was awesome. A silver lining. Brian tried to scam a cash win by starting Deshaun Watson in his first NFL action in two years. Watson scored 5.5 FP, equal to Sean’s worst player. A panty lining.
Back2back 156 – 127 Doing it Wrong
So Corey’s team name was just prophecy of the time he would win two straight games against Shelby? That’s commitment to the bit. At least the Ware house has a comfy couch.
Shelby won the cash game with 27 from Geno Smith, who Shelby probably only started because Kyler was on bye. But when you’re out of the playoff chase, cash is king. Shelby’s next game will undoubtedly be another one that favors her new franchise QB. Geno is a late keeper and a top-10 QB. The Seahawks have a top-5 pick coming from Denver, and it is hard to imagine them spending it on anything but a QB, but this is Seattle. There is a Georgia DL named Jalen Carter who would immediately give Seattle a run-stuffing presence and fix the Seahawks’ actual issues. Geno isn’t in Justin Fields’ class as a late keeper, but he’s super valuable heading into a draft where the keepers might already include Mahomes, Lamar, Herbert, Hurts, Burrow, Fields, Lawrence, Tua… the list goes on, but including Tua killed my momentum. The only case against Geno as a late keeper is the emergence of Rachaad White, who will only be a bigger part of the offense next season. The Bucs lose money by cutting Fournette, but if Brady goes and we don’t trade for Lamar, the Bucs will be tearing it down and eating dead money wherever it makes sense. In that case, Geno faces off against Devin White for Shelby’s early keeper, which is a win-win for Shelby since she’s the only one of us who will respect Geno enough to spend a decent pick on him. Good looking future there.
Tiny Rick 177 – 163 Lyfe is Short
For at least this year, Evan takes the title of League Villain. Not only does he win the matchup whose theme was villainy, he pretty much clinches a bye week with the strongest non-bought roster in Mortydome. And I was right about Zeke outscoring Miles Sanders, so I get a piece of this win, too. I’m cleaning up.
Cameron doesn’t care. He still scores enough to look like a contender. Had Tua been playing pretty much any other defense, he likely gets Cameron within five points of Evan in this one, while Cameron also left some points to be desired from other positions. There are plenty of timelines where the score flips and Cameron remains our favorite villain.
Roy 159 – 115 Krombopulos
Kennedy came into the year trying to tout his ability to scoop free WRs and turn them into stars. He’s done that with Christian Watson, but what’s been more impressive is Kennedy’s prowess as backup RB truffle pig. Foreman, Perine, and Robinson have been a formidable trio. Perine is crap with Mixon coming back, but his 22 FP would have helped Kennedy win against all but three teams this week.
Coleman’s team is a house of cards, and Justin Herbert is the king of the fold after turning 335 passing yards into 16 FP. Herbert will be better next year. The ribs and the injuries to everyone around him have been too much to overcome. Having revolving doors at both tackle spots most weeks has led to more sacks, more fumbles, more throwaways, more picks. And that’s only the top of the pyramid. Coleman’s also building this thing on IDPs, where even the best of them can leave you with 5 FP in a good matchup. In that same Raiders-Chargers game where Herbert took five sacks and fumbled twice, Maxx Crosby ended up with just 5.5 FP. Coleman had a brutal week. The only reason he even scored 115 was because Robbie Gould put up 20.
How do I even organize this? Do I just do power rankings? Do I preview the real NFL action and apply that to our league? Do I start by eliminating Brian and work my way up? Hmmm… I’ve leaned away from talking about actual NFL action for most of this season, so I’m going for it this week. Melees are total chaos, and most of us are just trying to figure out a full lineup. So let’s get deep into these games and see where we can get some leverage.
We know these teams now. We know what the offenses want to do and which defenses know how to wreck a gameplan. We’re leaning away from Houston, Denver, New Orleans, and the Rams on offense, but their defenses still hold water. We’re wary of Baltimore, Buffalo, Dallas, Philly, San Fran, and the Jets on defense. Meanwhile, there are too many trash defenses to even make a concise list. The major culprits are Chicago, Arizona, and the Chargers, none of whom can seem to do fucking anything to stop offenses. Other bad defenses like Detroit and Seattle (among others) at least do one thing well. Whatever. Let’s just look at the matchups.
First off, bye weeks. We’re going into this week without Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Indy, New Orleans, and Washington. That means no Mariota, Patterson, Fields, Montgomery, Jones, Dillon, Watson, Taylor, Pittman, Kamara, Olave, Taysom, Gibson, Robinson, McLaurin; no Jack Sanborn, De’Vondre Campbell, Okereke, Zaire, Demario, or Jon Allen, to name the best.
Second, injuries. Let’s go by position:
QB: Lamar is almost definitely out. John Wolford’s injury could put Baker Mayfield in the Rams’ starting lineup Thursday night. Tua’s nursing an ankle. Tannehill’s nursing an ankle. Trevor’s not practicing with a bad foot, but the plan is for him to play.
RB: Josh Jacobs will play through injury for the third consecutive week, this time on a short week. Mixon is back from his concussion. Najee is not practicing but will probably play again. D’Onta Foreman is “95% certain he will play” but might not practice. Michael Carter is back. The Seahawks have a whole thing going on, where Tony Jones is the only fully healthy one, but Travis Homer will probably start if healthy enough.
WR: Jaylen Waddle has a fibula injury, which is specific enough to bother me. Jakobi Meyers is in concussion protocol. Zay Jones is playing through a chest(?) injury. Diontae Johnson is playing through a hip injury. Mike Williams is back at practice, for what it’s worth. Treylon Burks is likely out with a concussion. Rondale Moore is still not practicing. Nico Collins is Texans WR1 but nursing a foot injury, missing the first two practices of the week so far. Brandin Cooks is sitting out with a “calf injury,” but speculation is that he’s just not going to play anymore because he hates the Texans. The Texans have to throw to somebody, which is a “famous last words” kind of thing, but the Texans have been utilizing TEs this year, so that’s valuable. Corey Davis is sick. Kadarius Toney is practicing!
TE: David Njoku is nursing a knee. Cameron Brate is back to full practices, which could take targets/snaps away from Cade Otton.
K: stop
DL: TJ Watt is playing through a rib injury that’s limited him to 6 FP and 3 FP in the last two weeks. Nick Bosa’s hamstring is irritated(?). Brian Burns is nursing a knee, despite a bye week last week. Myles Garrett is still vaguely hurt from his car accident a couple months ago. Zadarius Smith has been playing through a knee thing. Von Miller is out for the year, opening up opportunities for young stud Greg Rousseau.
LB: Matt Milano has been playing through a knee injury for like a month, posting a 22-FP game and a 4-FP game in that stretch.
DB: The Bucs DBs are all hurt in some way. Derwin is nursing a quad. Basically the whole Vikings defense has the flu. Idk. We don’t start that many IDPs. There’s stuff out there.
All right. Now the matchups.
Raiders @ Rams
The Rams refuse to quit, but they’re playing without Stafford, Kupp, Allen Robinson, and Aaron Donald, not to mention this ramshackle offensive line. The Raiders refuse to quit, and they’re getting dudes back from injury, including stud LT Kolton Miller. At 5-7, the Raiders are alive in the AFC playoff chase, just two games back of the last wild card. The Raiders aren’t “good,” but they aren’t bad. The Rams are bad.
Derek Carr doesn’t have to deal with Aaron Donald, but he does have to deal with Bobby Wagner, who will be able to call out the Raiders’ plays before the snap much of the game. The Rams don’t have much start power outside of Wagner and Ramsey. I think it’s too simplistic to assume Ramsey will shadow Davante Adams, and Ramsey just frankly isn’t as dominant as he used to be. In fantasy, we see Jacobs and Adams putting up a million points, and we assume that will happen tonight, but with Jacobs nursing whatever injury and Adams possibly getting stifled by Ramsey, we can open ourselves up to the possibility that either Foster Moreau or Mack Hollins score the TDs tonight. No matter who scores the TDs, I think the majority will come from Carr. Even without Donald, the Rams have a disciplined defense. The only teams that have rushed for more than 100 yards against the Rams: Buffalo, Dallas, San Fran, and Kansas City. But the defense isn’t very talented. They let Geno Smith throw for 350 yards last week. Seattle has maybe the most dynamic pass-catching group outside of Miami, and the Raiders are closer to average, but the Rams’ trajectory is to pack it in and care less and less about each game. Football players give it their all every time, but there’s only so much all you can give when you know the ceiling on your season is capped and people are talking about your head coach leaving for a TV gig.
Mortydome translation:
Max makes some noise with three TDs from Carr. Cameron gets 30-ish from Adams and Jacobs. Maxx Crosby has two sacks and gives Coleman an early edge. Kennedy gets a 10-spot from Foster Moreau. Brian starts a team of all Rams offense to gets his loss over with early.
Jets @ Bills
The weather calls for 1-3 inches of snow, which is going to be interesting because if it’s snowing, you really want to be able to pound the rock with a big dude with big legs. The biggest RB in this game is James Robinson, who typically plays behind Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, and Ty Johnson. The Bills allowed 174 rushing yards the last time they played the Jets, but the run defense has tightened up big time over the last three weeks, holding the Browns, Lions, and Pats under 100 yards apiece. On Buffalo’s side, the biggest RB is either Singletary or Cook depending on what you believe about how much weight Cook added between the NFL combine and the start of the season. At best, they weight the same, and it’s still around 200 pounds. A snow game would appear to favor Singletary, but obviously the biggest ballcarrier in this game is Josh Allen, who will render this whole discussion meaningless.
Josh Allen will rush the ball 10-15 times, but the Bills are not afraid to throw in the snow. If the Bills run 60 plays and the game is close, they’ll throw it 25 times, and as always, Stefon Diggs will be the beneficiary. If there is really an inch of snow on the ground, it just can’t be a Gabe Davis game. The timing of those deep routes would be too disrupted. It can be a good receiving game for any of the RBs or slot receivers. Hines has the best hands. He makes the most sense as a safety valve. But remember that Josh Allen throws a rough checkdown pass, even worse with the elbow injury.
Last year around this time, Buffalo played the Pats, when the Pats famously called only three passing plays the entire game. Granted, that game was windy, too. Josh Allen threw 30 times, completing 15, with one 14-yard touchdown to Gabe Davis. SO Davis can get some FP but not the nuclear stuff. The Bills learned from that game anyway. In their next home game, they gave Singletary 22 carries. In their next game against the Pats, Josh Allen ran 12 times (also threw 47). What I’m basically saying is, the Bills have figured out a lot of ways to win with Josh Allen being able to do everything.
The Jets can’t run the ball 50 times and win. Their offensive line isn’t good enough, especially compared to the Bills defensive line. Mike White has to beat this beat-up secondary. The obvious answer is Garrett Wilson, but the Bills know this. The sneaky play is Elijah Moore, who even in the snow will burn the absolute crap out of Xavier Rhodes if he can get the release. But the boring, probably correct play is Corey Davis, who matches Rhodes in size and has an edge in speed. The answer is not any of these RBs. The Bills just matchup too well. If I had to start a Jets RB, it would be his hotness Zonovan Knight, who is so hot that his parents were going to name him Donovan, but when the midwife saw him, she said, “Zayyum, zaddy!” and his parents pivoted to Zonovan.
Mortydome translation:
Josh Allen gives Evan another 30-piece. Sean regrets benching Singletary. Max regrets starting Gabe Davis (in perpetuity). Shelby and Spe play spoiler with big games from Diggs and Poyer, potentially even Garrett Wilson. Spencer sweats the Cook/Zonovan decision and ultimately ets the same score from whoever he starts. Whoever has the balls to start Corey Davis gets themselves 15 FP closer to a win. Greg Rousseau cements himself as my starting DL for the rest of the season. Either Matt Milano gets 12 tackles, maybe a pick, or, if he’s out with the knee, Evan pivots to Tremaine and gets the 12 tackles at least.
Browns @ Bengals
I honestly think the Browns are worse without Jacoby Brissett. This offense is all about timing and leverage, chugging along at a slow pace until the defense makes a mistake and opens up a deep crossing pattern. The Bengals don’t always look like an elite defense. They don’t have elite players. They have great coaching and chemistry, and that means everything at this time of year. I honestly think that, in a home game, they can shut out the Browns.
Joe Burrow can absolutely cook this shaky secondary. All three WRs can give you decent output. As good as Browns top corner Denzel Ward is, he can only cover one receiver, and it’s probably Ja’Marr Chase. The Browns (and most teams, honestly) don’t have a CB that can cover Tee Higgins for a whole game. He is too big and strong. If Ward doesn’t shadow Chase all game, then everything in the passing game is a matchup favoring the Bengals.
Nick Chubb is the obvious move if the Browns want to control the clock and keep the game within reach for all four quarters. The Bengals are ready for this. Chubb’s better is better than the Bengals’ better, but he’s just one guy getting a maximum 25 carries. Those other 35 plays, the Bengals’ defense has the advantage because the Browns QB is just too rusty to make shit happen this week. I will give Amari Cooper and DPJ credit here. They are much better than anything the Bengals have at CB. If Nick Chubb has early success and gets the Bengals off-balance, and the Browns are in position to set up shot plays, either of these Browns’ WRs could eat up huge chunks of yardage. Over the course of a whole game, if the Bengals are protecting the ball on offense, I just don’t think the Browns will be able to setup shot plays. I think they’ll trail by too much and end up in predictable passing situations, getting completely swallowed up for much of the second half.
Mortydome translation:
Corey gets 30 from Burrow. Shelby puts a lot of chips in this game with Mixon, Boyd, and DPJ, with about 40 from the lot. Evan gets 15 from Chubb. Kennedy gets 10 from Perine to pad those bench stats. Sean gets less from Ja’Marr than he needs. Spencer climbs the ranks with a strong game from Higgins. Brian stops trying to make the Browns QB happen. If anyone adds Trey Hendrickson, they get at least a sack out of it. Logan Wilson returns to IDP prominence, but does anyone add him?
Texans @ Cowboys
I’ll keep it Mortydome:
Cowboys run it 40 times. Zeke and Pollard score 20 apiece. Evan and Cameron are happy. Dak scores 20. Kennedy is numb. Lamb outscores Ja’Marr, but it’s still not enough for Sean. Michael Gallup and Dameon Pierce each somehow score two TDs, Micah Parsons has some combination of outlandish plays that add up to 20 FP, and Coleman closes that points gap before the afternoon games even start. Brett Maher does another XP expo, to Cameron’s chagrin. Starting a Texans LB or safety is very tempting this week.
Vikings @ Lions
Fucking love this game. The 5-7 Lions are favored over the 10-2 Vikings, and it makes sense. The Lions are hungry and improving. The Vikings are plateauing, at best. These secondaries are trash. It’s basically Jeff Okudah on one side and Patrick Peterson on the other. These teams should combine for 60 points and play this one down to the wire. Cousins and Goff should combine for 60 FP, but they won’t. Ultimately, Dalvin Cook will take advantage of a weak Lions front-seven, and Jamaal Williams will keep vulturing those goal line TDs.
That said, the Vikings have the flu. Like 20 of them. If you practice how you play, they’re going to play like shit. Meanwhile, the Lions are hot and healthy. And they’re suddenly so stacked on offense that I can’t squeeze Jameson Williams into my lineup because I’m worried about DJ Chark and Amon-Ra taking all the targets. A division game against the team that traded them the Jameson pick just feels too juicy. I’m fighting so hard to resist just plugging Jameson in there anyway. The Lions could blowout the Vikings here, but I believe too much in a well-designed and talented offense getting the better of a generally sub-par defense.
Mortydome translation:
We will watch as Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff would have won one of us the cash game. Evan gets another huge game from Amon-Ra. Coleman gets next-to-nothing from DJ Chark and hurts his chances of stealing a bye. I regret whatever decision I make with Jameson. Max gets a TD from Thielen, maybe two, maybe 20 FP. Sean gets lots of points from Cook and Jamaal, but the reemergence of D’Andre Swift not only caps Jamaal’s upside but potentially helps Oliver seal his 5-seed. Max and Oliver get a solid 20 tackles and a couple other nice stats from their Vikings LBs. Justin Jefferson got shut down in Week 3 against Detroit, which could mean it happens again, or it could mean Jefferson puts all of his energy into roasting Okudah this time around. TJ Hockenson returns to Detroit and have such a good game that it leads announcers to say things like, “I guess the Lions still think he plays for them.” Yuck.
Eagles @ Giants
I’ll cut to the Mortydome bit:
The Giants will try some new things against the Eagles. They will double AJ Brown all day, and they will attack Hurts on option concepts. It’s hard to imagine stopping the Eagles’ offense. It’s more likely to shift the points over to Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, and Kenny Gainwell. Either way, Evan is fine. Sean, however, is a wreck if this thing goes south for Hurts. Not only might it cost him the bye, it would give the rest of the league a blueprint to avoid embarrassment against this offense. Just think: the Titans were so embarrassed by AJ Brown that they fired the GM who traded him to the Eagles. The Giants offense won’t do shit in this game. If I were Oliver, I would bench Saquon and start one of the ten dudes I traded for last week. I don’t think there’s much IDP action here. TJ Edwards gets a bunch of tackles. Some combination of Eagles pass rushers does things, but the unpredictability of which one is why they’re all free agents in our league. I like the Giants pass rushers, the ones who will be attacking Hurts on those options, but again, not knowing which one means they’re better off being left in free agency.
Ravens @ Steelers
This is going to be a gross game. It’s a division rivalry predicated on rushing and defense, and it’s going to rain. I have more faith in Mike Tomlin’s defense than maybe anything else in the NFL. They played against Snoop Huntley in Week 18 last year. The game went to overtime, and the Steelers won on a field goal. Latavius Murray rushed for 150 yards. Huntley rushed for 72, but he threw two picks and took three sacks. The Steelers have been doing some version of this defense for 15+ years. As a Ravens fan, I’m holding out hope, but I really don’t want to dupe myself with a playoff spot on the line. Ugh, let me just get rid of Huntley now. Ugh, the Steelers have been allowing a lot of rushing yards this year. But that was mostly without Watt. But Watt isn’t playing at full strength. Fuuuuck.
Mortydome translation:
I’m leaning toward dropping Huntley. Sean has to start Andrews, but he’s not going to like it. The Ravens will have Dobbins and Gus healthy and hopefully run the ball 50 times, so do I start them both?!?! Or will Kenyan Drake do stuff again? Will Huntley steal the goal line TDs and make me regret dropping him? I think the Ravens will avoid runs to Watt’s edge, meaning a lot of runs up the middle and runs to Highsmith’s side. Still, they can’t do that all game. They have to test Watt’s side to keep the defense from stacking the other side. I’m tilting. Evan doesn’t need to start Pickens, and he shouldn’t, but Pickens will have a nice game. Najee will have a nice game if the Steelers can get a lead. Otherwise, the Steelers will test Baltimore’s secondary, specifically Geno Stone and Kyle Hamilton. That means slot receiver, which should be Diontate but they’ve been giving more love to Steven Sims and Gunner Olszewski (whose name I was one letter away from getting right without looking it up). Maybe Pat Freiermuth scores two TDs and helps Corey sneak into that 6-seed. I’m starting both Ravens LBs because that’s just what I do now. Oliver’s starting Marlon Humphrey, which could lead to a lot of points if Humphrey draws Pickens in coverage a lot and gets some PBUs. Minkah Fitzpatrick also helps Corey’s chances, with just straight playmaking.
Jags @ Titans
Can’t wait for Derrick Henry to rush for 150 yards. Gonna love that, especially when I’m starting Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence plays like shit. Awesome. Forget this game. But also, feels like the game the Jags pass rushers finally put on a show. No, forget it.
Chiefs @ Broncos
Mortydome version:
Greg Dulcich plays WR with Courtland Sutton out, puts up the only numbers worth anything to anybody in fantasy, but it won’t mean dick when all I’m doing is rewatching Derrick Henry rush for 4 TDs against Jacksonville over and over until my phone dies and I’m just sitting in a dark room at 4 PM.
Okay, fine. I’ll think about other people. Patrick Mahomes draws the best pass defense in the league, and Oliver starts Mahomes, Pacheco, and Kelce against his beloved Broncos. Delicious. It’s one of those games where one team is counted out before it even starts, but it’s a division game and the Broncos are at home. I smell chaos brewing. The Broncos’ offense sucks regardless. The Chiefs’ defense is whatever, but it’s not bad enough to allow more than a couple cheap TDs to this offense. This is bad for fantasy because it means the Chiefs’ offense will only need to score 20 to win, which could mean Oliver probably gets less than 60 from his three Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Broncos feel too stubborn not to run the ball. Latavius will get his 15 carries. Nick Bolton will clean up those carries after three yards and give Coleman even more points. What else? Kadarius Toney? Nah. Juju Smith-Schuster, though? Probably nah, as he’ll be locked down by Pat Surtain II.
Panthers @ Seahawks
The Seahawks’ defense, especially the run defense, has been so, so bad, which is great for Carolina because they want to run the ball all game and keep Sam Darnold from giving the ball away. When Darnold does throw, it will be mostly to DJ Moore. The Panthers have been creative with Laviska Shenault, but they only played him about half the snaps before the bye week. Could that change with two weeks to prepare? I hope so. Shenault has the Deebo skill set. We really haven’t seen him unleashed. I don’t think he has that speed, but I don’t know for sure. He broke off a 40-yard rushing TD earlier this year. He could be great.
The Seahawks’ offense is awesome. Geno leads the league in completion percentage, and he’s completing enough deep passes to make it legit. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant are a Madden offense. God I’m gonna be so mad when DK and Derrick score enough to get me in the playoffs. But anyway, this should be all Seahawks. The Panthers’ run defense is good, but the pass defense is not. And the run defense looks worse as the game goes along because the offense isn’t keeping them in it. The Seahawks will eventually be able to put together second-half drives of ten plays, seven runs, and bleed the clock out. They let the Rams hang around, but that’s Seahawks-Rams. That rivalry exists in a universe where the Panthers are just pixelated blue and grey deep in the background.
Mortydome translation:
Start your Darnolds! No, don’t do that, but do believe that Foreman and Moore can each put up 15 FP and make Kennedy feel good for starting both. Meanwhile, the real story is Geno, DK, and Lockett overshadowing whatever mess the Seahawks start at RB. Shelby crafted a cash game designed for Geno. She’s crunched the numbers. She’s taking back control of that game, and she’s going to get close to winning back her $50 by the end of the year (cash game goes through Week 18; our champion wins, like, no money relative to other leagues). Oliver gets a solid game from DK. Corey gets a solid game from Lockett. Jordyn Brooks gets Cameron another double-digit performance. Brian Burns goes against a rookie tackle no matter which side he lines up on; our Brian is happy. I don’t think there’s much else here. Noah Fant and Tommy Tremble are interesting free agents, but they’re less interesting than a handful of others.
Bucs @ 49ers
Tom Brady comes home, or whatever.
The 49ers get pressure with four against even the best offensive lines. The Bucs offensive line has basically one starter, Shaq Mason. The other four are awful. They are awful. Brady was under immense pressure against a Saints’ d-line that basically has two pass rushers and some filler. The 49ers are going to kick Brady’s ass. BUT the Bucs’ defense can get some turnovers from 49ers deep backup Brock Purdy. The Bucs have a good run defense. However, the 49ers will open the game with a playaction pass for a 75-yard TD. After that, they’ll be able to run the ball the whole game. Eventually, they’ll hit one more unanticipated deep ball, and that’ll be all they need. The Bucs’ offense has been relying on quick game all year already, against normal defensive lines, and it’s fucking sucked. So they’ve tried to open things up, but the line doesn’t hold. So, okay, we could try to run, against one of the league’s best run fronts that just got Arik Armstead back? Gross.
Mortydome translation:
The chat is going to be drunk for these three hours in the late afternoon, mostly just spelling out various grunt noises, with the occasional praise of Godwin, White, or David. Evan and Shelby will be happy. The rest of us, I don’t know. I’m still on the fence about starting Brady. It feels bad. Brady is on my team for Week 16 when we play Arizona. That’s his purpose at this point. But again, I would have won last week if I’d started Brady (and Dillon). So do I just keep making the same mistakes, or do I overcorrect myself off a cliff? I don’t know. If you’re starting 49ers not named McCaffrey, good luck with that. I don’t think they accomplish anything, except for the one dude who catches the 75-yard TD to open the game. That dude eats.
Dolphins @ Chargers
Tua-Herbert on Sunday night is cool. Staley-McDaniel on Sunday night is cool. I’m interested in this game, and I won’t pretend to know what two young head coaches will bring to primetime in a game with wild card implications. My gut guess is that the Dolphins will be able to run all over the Chargers, that Tua won’t really need to do a whole lot. Herbert will have to do a whole lot with Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips working his two replacement tackles all game long. It’s bad for the Chargers, who in addition to being a run funnel really haven’t done much as a pass defense either. It’s starting to look a lot like Raheem Morris was the architect behind the Rams’ defense that earned Staley his head coaching gig in the first place. Racism!
Mortydome translation:
Start your Dolphins. Sit your Chargers not name Keenan Allen. I’m sure Ekeler will catch ten passes. I’m just not sure he does much else. 12-15 FP is nice, generally, in keeping you from losing, but it doesn’t help you win. Herbert will get his ass kicked almost as bad as Tom Brady. If Mike Williams returns, it won’t matter. The Chargers won’t have time for deep routes to develop. Jaylen Waddle’s fibula worries me, but you know what? I would simply start Trent Sherfield. I would. He’s fast and well-versed in the offense. He’s done very well when given opportunities. And Derwin is questionable. The Chargers might out-Charger themselves in this one. More importantly: go pick up Bradley Chubb already. I’m talking to you, Evan.
Patriots @ Cardinals
Mercy. I am finally at the final game of the week, and I will be happy when it gets here because it means I get to see what Rhamondre Stevenson and DeAndre Hopkins add to my linuep. Hell fucking yeah. Stevenson and Hopkins are my best remaining players, and at this point, they might be my keepers going into next year. So let’s see what these guys have got. Shelby is benching Kyler finally. Kennedy is starting Hollywood. Sean is starting James Conner. Corey probably can’t risk Jakobi Meyers in his lineup unless we get definitive word about him before Sunday’s games. Mac Jones is no. Oh shit! Cameron made the sneaky add I was planning to make and forgot! Marcus Jones starts at DB for the Pats, returns kicks and punts, and on Thursday night, he played WR, catching a screen pass and housing it from like 60 yards out. He’s the new Deion Sanders, and I deeply wish I had put him in my waiver queue. Dumb! Good shit, Cameron. I fucking love it. Let’s see… Matt Judon is good for a sack in this one. Josh Uche is also interesting, if Bradley Chubb isn’t your thing, Evan. I think I’ve missed something. Hunter Henry? I don’t know. Sure. Greg Dortch? Why? Oh, Oliver has Budda Baker, but I think the Pats know how to avoid the other team’s best player. Is Corey still riding with Isaiah Simmons? Don’t love that. In terms of the game itself, Cards’ LB Zaven Collins is an interesting foil for Rhamondre. They’re basically the same size, strength, speed, all that. Will be interesting to see if that means anything. I continue to think the Cardinals’ defense the last five years or so has been the biggest waste of rare and unique talent in my football-watching history.
K. Predictions?
Without scrolling up to check whether I vouched for their players or not, I think the winners this week are Evan, Coleman, and Oliver, for sure. Corey, Max, and Shelby were my gut calls. I would throw Spencer in there as a dark horse. Definite losers: Brian, Kennedy, and me. Who does that leave? Cameron and Sean. Okay, so Cameron’s in the Spencer tier. Sean’s either first or he’s last—not literally last; don’t worry, Brian.
Anyway, have fun. It’s a melee week!
