100 Years 161.26 – 160.45 K. Mike
NOPE NEVER FUCKING MIND
K. Mike 163.45 – 161.26 100 Years
Stat corrections are a bitch this year. I was declared the winner on Tuesday, but stat corrections gave Coleman an extra three points on Wednesday and flipped it.
This could have been the match of the much-maligned Dameon Pierce trade, but I didn’t think it through and left AJ Dillon on the bench and LO AND BEHOLD Big Dill outscored everyone in this matchup except for the QBs and Justin Jefferson. But the sleeper cell in the trade, Justin Tucker, quintupled Dameon Pierce’s score by himself. This is two weeks in a row that Dillon and Tucker individually have each outscored Pierce. The conceit of the trade was always built around this part of the season: the Texans fall apart, the Packers turn it around, and Justin Tucker is forever.
The Texans are the worst team in the league, and there is not a close second. The Miami blowout feels like something that can’t happen every week, but then again is the Texans’ remaining schedule: CLE, DAL, KC, TEN, JAX. And because Pierce so clearly has the goods, the Texans can’t afford to ruin him. I expect Pierce to max out at 10-12 touches each of these next five games.
The Packers haven’t turned it around, and so they are never in the lead and never in position to feed Big Dill a bunch of second-half carries, which is the difference between last year, in which Dillon led the Packers in carries, and this year, in which Aaron Jones has a 30-carry lead through 12 games. I’m not sure what the Packers do from here. Aaron Rodgers was already playing with a broken thumb, and now he’s got some rib injury, but he plans to keep playing. My hope is the Packers lose again, pack it in, and rest Rodgers and Jones. Tim for Big Dill to eat snow and shit gold. (I also think Jordan Love will be at least as good for fantasy as Marcus Mariota, which, fine, take it as you will.)
Obviously, I love Justin Tucker. The Ravens are a full mess, and I often think it would be better to just have Tucker and some IDPs rather than risking it all for the Ravens’ run game every week. I realized this week that holding Gus and JK only works because one of them is always injured. The idea of having both healthy makes me sick. I can’t start both if I’m starting Henry and Rhamondre. I can’t start one because I’ll just die of shame if I start the wrong one. So I either have to trade Henry or Rhamondre, or I have to bench two good RBs, or I have to die of shame. I can’t trade Henry because he’s the best. I can’t trade Rhamondre because he’s a late keeper averaging like 20 FP per game.
So I really need AJ Dillon to become a starting RB. Honestly, we all need this, if I’m being honest.
What? Recap the matchup? Why?
Cum Gutters 143 – 129 C.R.E.A.M.
Gross. Not just because of the imagery, but because it was Mariota vs. Cousins. Brian made it pretty competitive, though. 129 is his highest point-total of the season. No, really. Brian is getting hot at the right time, and if he had played Shelby this week, he would have won.
Obviously the big news this week is Oliver trading for Mahomes, giving up Justin Fields and a 2nd (which becomes a 1st if Oliver wins the championship). This sparks a few questions:
Is Oliver’s team scary now? He has QB1, TE1, two top-10 RBs, two top-20 WRs, TJ Watt, CJ Mosley, and whatever Isiah Pacheco becomes after taking over the Chiefs job but then watching the Chiefs sign Melvin Gordon. I still think Evan has the scarier lineup.
Did Oliver give up too much? Well, Justin Fields is a late keeper, and he scored 60 points in a game this year. He appears to be the next big thing in fantasy, scoring 20 FP per game in rushing alone. He might be done for the year with a separated shoulder, or he might play this week. Oliver spent a 2nd in what might downgrade at QB in both points and keeper years.
Is Oliver done making moves? He shouldn’t be. There is still plenty of talent out there on teams with no playoff hopes. Let’s get into it:
Brian was already getting thin and sickly before he passed. Sean got the good organs, but there’s still a little meat to pick at, still a little fat you can render into something useful. Brian’s best keeper options are: Pittman, Diontae, and Akers early; Burns, Wan’Dale, Skyy, and… Deshaun Watson late. (Ugh, the combination of adding Watson and naming your team “cream” within two minutes of each other… Barf.) Brian also has D’Andre Swift, who he drafted in the first round. Swift is playing hurt and it’s kind of ugly, but he’s scoring 7-10 FP every week, and there’s always potential for more. Overall, the best pieces right now are Pittman and Burns, but the best value is Harrison Butker, who you should be able to get without spending much of anything. If I didn’t have the best kicker already, I’d start by offering a 15th for Butker and a 16th.
Spencer has been eliminated, opening up trade routes for (in the order Spencer drafted them) Najee Harris, Mike Evans, Aaron Jones, Tee Higgins, David Montgomery, and Dallas Goedert. Harris and Evans are unkeepable, and going into the offseason with four early keepers is overkill. The most obvious target is Montgomery. He’s the least interesting keeper, and the Bears suck. But with Khalil Herbert out, DMG is the only game in town. In a blowout loss to the Jets, he still had 16 FP. The most interesting player on this roster in Garrett Wilson, who Spencer can’t trade for anything less than a 3rd. If you need IDP help, Matt Judon leads the league in sacks. Despite that success, he doesn’t hold a candle to Spencer’s other keeper options. Someone go get Judon.
Look, I think Max, Corey, and Shelby are out, or at least out enough to sell out for a 2nd if anyone’s offering one for Diggs, Waddle, or Taylor. But with two teams at 6-6 and four teams at 5-7, it’s worth waiting to see how things play out through Sunday. I will keep repeating: the trade deadline is the last snap of the Bucs-Saints game on Monday night. Shelby and Corey play each other, with only Rachaad and Devin White to play on Monday. If Shelby is winning on Monday morning, Corey should sell. If Corey is winning by 50, Shelby should sell. Within 50, I like the Whites’ chances. On the flip side, whoever’s winning shouldn’t necessarily buy. It would depend on what’s happening in the other matchups. Let’s run scenarios:
First off, the material slice of the standings:
5. Doak: 6-6, 1818 FP
6. Oliver: 6-6, 1713 FP
7. Kennedy: 5-7, 1827 FP
8. Max: 5-7, 1669 FP
9. Corey: 5-7, 1653.9 FP
10. Shelby: 5-7, 1653.1 FP
Nobody’s truly eliminated. Either Oliver or I could still go 6-8. Any of the 5-7 teams can win two in a row and make the points irrelevant. What’s likely to happen is this: I win, Oliver wins, Kennedy loses, Max loses, Corey wins, Shelby loses. Which would lead to this:
5. Doak: 7-6, ~1970 FP
6. Oliver: 7-6, ~1860 FP
7. Corey: 6-7, ~1800 FP
8. Kennedy: 5-8, ~1950 FP
9. Max: 5-8, ~1800 FP
10. Shelby: 5-8, ~1780 FP
Max, Shelby, and Kennedy would be out. (I know: I want Kennedy to sneak into the playoffs, but he’s very unlikely to beat Coleman this week.) But if Corey drops 200 in Week 13, he could overtake Oliver in the points. At that point, he’d just need a melee win in Week 14 coupled with an Oliver loss. Yes, after a five-game losing streak, Corey could rebound, make the playoffs, and be a serious threat to make good on his team name.
But things could also go like this: I lose, Max wins, Oliver loses, Kennedy wins, Shelby wins, Corey loses…
5. Kennedy: 6-7, ~2000 FP
6. Doak: 6-7, ~1950 FP
7. Oliver: 6-7, ~1830 FP
8. Shelby: 6-7, ~1800 FP
9. Max: 6-7, ~1800 FP
10. Corey: 5-8, ~1780 FP
In this scenario, Corey’s the only one eliminated because he can’t recover the points in just one week. He could somehow score 200 in his Week 13 loss and it would still be an uphill battle. This scenario looks more competitive than the first one, but it’s actually less so. Because of the melee, and our relative inferiority to the four teams ahead of us in the standings, only two of the five 6-7 teams feel likely to win, and I’m not ready to count out Spencer as a spoiler. So using little to no real math at all, here are our playoff odds:
Evan, Sean, Coleman – 100%
Cameron – okay, I can actually do the math on this one: the only way Cameron gets eliminated is if he loses two in a row while Oliver and I win two in a row. This week, Cameron has a 50% chance of winning. Oliver and I have a 25% chance of both winning. Next week is the same. It feels different because it’s a melee, but it’s still a 50% chance of Cameron winning and a 25% chance of Oliver and I both winning. So multiply it out, and Cameron has a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs. Actually, okay, it’s a little lower than that because Kennedy can also win two in a row while he and I both overcome Cameron in points, but I actually can’t do that math without doing some research, so let’s call it 95%.
Okay, the rest are made up:
Doak – 75%
Oliver – 55%
Kennedy – 50%
Corey – 25%
Shelby – 20%
Max – 15%
Utter nonsense. But again, Max, Corey, Shelby, and probably Kennedy are one loss away from elimination. Kennedy got the jump start on selling because he got the right offer. Even when you are eliminated from the playoffs, you still compete in cash games, you still play for the #1 pick, and you don’t give a playoff team a star player without getting a star price.
But also, do what you want. You’re the one who has to live with it.
Back2back 136 – 122 Doing it Wrong
This was the lowest scoring matchup overall, and it was the lowest scoring winner and the lowest scoring loser. Disgusting. Either Kennedy or I should get to take this win. What’s crazy about this matchup is that Kyler Murray had his best game of the season, finally getting to play with Conner, Hollywood, and Hopkins, granted no Rondale, no Ertz. It’s easy to see how this Cardinals’ season could have been awesome. It’s just interesting enough for the Cardinals to keep their HC and GM, and it’s definitely enough for Shelby to keep starting Kyler after the bye, if not consider keeping him next season. The difference in this matchup was the difference in the kickers. Jason Sanders scored 14. Wil Lutz scored -1. Shelby also got jack shit from her flex dudes, and she had Joe Mixon on bye. Have to think that even just having Mixon in over Carter or Boyd flips this result, another reason we can’t rule Shelby out.
Should we encourage either Corey or Shelby to be buyers? Probably not. Had Shelby won Week 12 and had the lead going into Monday Week 13, hell yeah. But right now, this would be the decision tree for either Corey or Shelby:
Lose = sell
Win AND two of D, O, K win = sell.
Win AND all of D, O, K lose = buy.
D, O lose AND Kennedy wins = hold.
(And again, “win” means be in position to win Monday morning, while there’s a high likelihood people will be checking trade offers and take time to negotiate. Shelby and Corey being Bucs fans and living together gives them an interesting advantage. They will likely stay up to watch the whole game, and they can make a trade in under a minute sitting right next to each other. They can see how all of our matchups shake out and easily make an 11th hour trade.)
Lyfe is Short 142 – 129 Pirates of the Pancreas
Another low-scoring affair where Cameron rides that Tua coaster, watching him score 16 FP against the Texans. Maybe Cameron should have made the Mahomes deal. The Texans game was a blowout, so Tua didn’t play the 4th quarter. However, 16 FP in a blowout is game-manager stuff. Tua’s remaining schedule is: @SF, @LAC, @BUF, vGB, @NE. Week 15 is in Buffalo in probably 15-degree weather. Florida teams suck in the snow, and I can’t imagine QBs from Hawaii fare much better. Meanwhile, Max has a great cold-weather QB who held his own against Philly, also playing just three quarters, scoring just 11 FP. Had Rodgers played the 4th quarter, I think he’d have gotten Max really, really close to winning this matchup. What’s very, very sad is that Max had the points on his bench with Derek Carr, who had the wayyy better matchup, if only because he wasn’t playing the best team in the league. Disappointing QB play is the story of Max’s season. Rather than rely on Carr or Rodgers to resurrect this thing, Max should sell while playoff hopefuls still have picks to give. As for Cameron, had Josh Jacobs scored his projection (20FP), Cameron would have scored just 106 FP this week. So… yeah, I don’t know. Cameron’s whole team is a roller coaster. His QBs were Wilson, Wentz, Wilson, Wentz, Jimmy G, and finally Tua. He even dropped Jimmy this week. He’s probably going to pick up Cousins. Among free agent QBs, the ones with the best matchups are Russell Wilson and Jimmy G *cue laugh track*
Adventure 162 – 134 C’mon Football
Sean is having an impressive run. In addition to scoring in the top-three each week, he’s always got a bunch of points on the bench, too. He’s got the depth. He might even try to sell Dalvin Cook to another playoff team, since it feels like Cook keeps getting outscored by Devin Singletary. Of course, I wouldn’t have the guts to do it. I would play it the way Sean has, and the way he will going forward. Look at this lineup: Hurts, Cook, Conner, Jam. Williams, Chase, Lamb, Andrews, and a bunch of IDP garbage that’s somehow adding 35 FP to the mix every week. It’s beautiful. And that depth: Singletary, Latavius, Sutton, Schultz, and room to add another WR if Josh Palmer gets relegated by Mike Williams down the road. Meanwhile, Spencer’s cooked and needs to sell a little something here or there. This was a tough loss because it was very realistic for Spencer to have gotten 10 more FP from each of Najee, Evans, and Lloyd to get him the 30 he needed to pull of the upset.
Tiny Rick 187 – 161 Roy
The Polar Express is back! You know you’re the best when someone scores 161 against you and then decides to quit on their season. Evan is the favorite again, and though Josh Allen is a lot of it, there’s just so much going on here. Evan benched Chris Godwin this week, and it made sense. Godwin of course outscored people in Evan’s lineup, but still, looking at the lineup before games started, I was like, yeah, Amon-Ra over Godwin, yeah AJB over Godwin, Jeff Wilson alone in that Miami backfield yeah; the only person I’d have benched for Godwin was Miles Sanders, and Sanders outscored Godwin by 11! Evan needs a TE, though. Without Justin Fields, Cole Kmet is nothing. Evan could try to snag Schultz away from Sean, or he could try to get Kittle from Shelby, or he could just let it ride. We’re talking about, like, seven points on team that beats people by 20 every week. It’s honestly fine.
I don’t even care that Kennedy gave up. His team is ugly, and his luck is bad. And is it really giving up going from Pat to Dak? Or even Fields? If Kennedy has a strong lead Monday morning, he could just re-gift Oliver’s 2nd for Stefon Diggs and get right back in this thing. After all, if there’s anything slowing down the Polar Express, it’s the chance to equalize some of those points by starting Diggs against Allen. Diggs should be on a playoff roster, one way or another. Don’t make me do it. I want to have all my single-digit picks for once.
The Innuendo Bowl
C.R.E.A.M. over In-N-Out
QB: Deshaun Watson releases all that pent-up aggression all over Houston, some of it consensual. There’s this weird-ass report that a large group of women who sued Watson will be in attendance, in a suite with the lawyer who represented them. So they’re not, like, on the Texans sideline or even in prominent seats holding signs in protest; they’re practically invisible from field view, and they’re eating cocktail shrimp and drinking negronis. Is this what passes for feminism in Texas? Giving the Texans money and enjoying yourself while Watson throws four TDs and rushes for another? What the hell is going on?
Jalen Hurts goes against maybe the best defense when it comes to preparing a weekly game plan and stopping the run. While the Eagles could easily win this one, I think the Titans can hold them to around 20 points, meaning Hurts’ ceiling would be capped around 25? Advantage Fart69.
RB: Obviously advantage Sean, although he is once again benching Devin Singletary, even with one of his big three RBs on bye. It’s nice that Latavius Murray dominated Denver’s backfield for a couple weeks, but it looks like Mike Boone is coming back. Murray likely runs the ball 15 times for 40 yards, catches a couple passes for 10 more. If he doesn’t get in the endzone, he’ll be Sean’s worst player this week. Singletary is playing the Pats, so I get it. But at some point, you just start your best players. When you don’t, you leave the door open for disappointment. Speaking of disappointment, Brian basically has to start Akers and Swift. The talent between these RB groups is equal. The difference is opportunity.
WR: Brian should go grab Michael Gallup and start him along with Pittman and Diontae. Just start good players, people. And Gallup vs. Lamb is a nice mini-game. Along with Lamb, Sean starts Ja’Marr Chase in Chase’s first game back from IR. Usually these games go poorly, or at least don’t explode. So Brian can scam an advantage here with a couple TDs.
TE: Andrews
K: Butker over Bass, slightly
DL: Sad week for Brian Burns’ bye, but as Sean has proven, there are always free agent IDPs capable of carrying your team in lean weeks. Brian has a great selection to choose from. Again, ignore matchups. Just play a great player. (Chase Young, anyone?) Zadarius Smith was a mismatch nightmare for a couple months, but teams have caught on. His points are way down and likely to stay down more weeks than not. Advntage Brian.
LB: Bobby Wagner vs. Josey Jewell is dumb. Wagner is washed but can still score an easy 10. When healthy, Jewell has outscored Wagner in all but one game this year. Wagner plays Seattle, so advantage Brian.
DB: Hufanga is fun and cool and makes plays on the ball every week. Harrison Smith is old and slow and makes plays on the ball every week. Both are playing against Shanahan-style teams where TFLs will be available. Advantage speed. Advantage overall defensive preparedness. Advantage Brian.
DX: Colts LBs not named Shaq Leonard. Wash.
Do it, Brian. Ride Watson to cash and glory. You have my blessing. (Also keep Watson out of our playoffs.)
The Welcome, Minnesota Bowl
Cum over C’mon
QB: Mahomes gets Cincinnati, but Lawrence gets Detroit. We want both games to be shootouts, but Jags-Lions is way more likely to make it happen. These defenses are bad. The Chiefs and Bengals have kind of decent defenses, and this is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship. When teams are that amped, the game plays tighter. It could be a shootout, but we could see teams jockeying for playoff position just taking the points, each kicking multiple field goals while the Jags and Lions goes balls to the wall all game long. I’ll call it a wash.
RB: Oliver is starting Saquon, CMC, and Pacheco. The former two are playing hurt, and their teams have shown a certain reticence to ride them with so much season, and likely playoffs, still in front of them. Pacheco goes against a tough run front in a game that’s highly unlikely to be a blowout. I don’t expect another 20-carry game here. I don’t expect any of these backs to get 20 touches, and these are also situations where goal-line TDs feel unlikely. Spencer is starting Aaron Jones and David Montgomery, who are playing against each other’s awful run defenses in a division matchup these non-playoff teams will treat as having massive importance. Easy to see both getting 20 touches, and the duo outscoring the trio here. Advantage Spencer
WR: This was Oliver’s weak spot for so long, but Keenan Allen is healthy and kicking in his 13 per week, while Brandon Aiyuk is the #1 receiver for the 49ers—Deebo is hurt and also kind of losing touches to CMC. If for some reason Oliver needed him, Darius Slayton off the bench is the Giants’ top WR. Oliver’s issue that maybe he’s ignoring: his best lineup is just Chiefs, Giants, and 49ers. That can limit your upside. Spencer’s trio of Tee, Evans, and Garret Wilson has immense upside, enough to give Spencer a significant advantage in this area. The issue is I don’t like the matchups. Evans might get ejected after fighting Lattimore, Higgins could get shadowed by Sneed. Garrett Wilson against the Vikings is interesting. He will most likely be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. The Vikings will get good pressure on Mike White, which didn’t happen to White last week. It could be crap. But at face-value, advantage Spe.
TE: Kelce over everybody
K: Entropyyyy
DL: Watt over Judon, but Judon gets a treat playing the Bills sans Dion Dawkins.
LB: Mosley over Tranquill, though Tranquill is another one of these Josey Jewells racking up FP despite, you know, sucking.
DB: Humphrey over Poyer because I love Humphrey and the Pats will scheme up to avoid Poyer with all the holes in the Bills’ defense right now.
DX: Hicks over Lloyd by a lot. Looking at Lloyd’s game log, Spencer needs to drop him. His production declined, and now his snaps have declined. It’s time to find another Drue Tranquill.
I was all in on Spencer, but there’s a fair shot that even if his offense outduels Oliver’s that Oliver’s solid IDPs right the ship and deliver a double-digit win for Oliver here. Still, we root for chaos. And we stan rag-tag bunches of misfits. We stan Spe.
The Battle of the Bad Guys
Tiny over Short
QB: Polar Express over QB Carousel. Josh Allen playing the Patriots gives me pause, but Tua playing the 49ers is just so awful. Granted, Tua gets the ball out too quickly for the 49ers’ pass rush to get there, but also the 49ers don’t have to blitz to get pressure. The 49ers will succeed in confusing Tua, leading to maybe not a catastrophe, but definitely nothing good for Cameron. In Allen’s last game against the Pats, he had 44 FP. In the game before that, he had 15. I think Tua’s ceiling for the week is Allen’s floor. Advantage Evan
RB: Evan is starting Chubb and maybe Sanders. I hope he’ll rethink Sanders against the Titans elite run defense. Root for the Eagles all you want, but above that, give yourself the best chance to beat Cameron. Zeke hasn’t been much fun to watch, but he’s a better play against the Colts And he’s scored 20 FP four weeks in a row. So Chubb runs all over the Texans, and Zeke gets another 20. Cameron will start three of Pollard, Jacobs, Etienne, and Cyrpto. He’s right to start the young guys and leave Crypto on the bench, especially with the Falcons having the worst matchup. This makes me want to revisit the Ja’Marr Chase trade, but I’ll move on. All three of Cameron’s RBs have good matchups, but only Jacobs feels like a lock to make anything of it. Chubb and Zeke combined for 40. Pollard, Jacobs, and Etienne combined for 50? It’s pretty much a wash.
WR: Amari Cooper and Davante Adams or AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chris Godwin. I have already said that Watson will throw four TDs, so let’s give two to Cooper. Let’s give Adams 100 and a TD. Meanwhile, AJ Brown gets the revenge game against the Titans. I think the Eagles are total sickos and have some things in the chamber they’ve been saving for this game. Brown rushes for a TD for sure, maybe catches one, too. Definitely leads all Eagles in FP. Amon-Ra has been getting so many Cooper Kupp comparisons, I’m just gonna hop on that bandwagon. Pencil him in for 20 FP each week. And Chris Godwin will dominate the Saints while they focus all their attention on Mike Evans and stuffing the run. That’s 60+ for Evan and 40 for Cameron.
TE: No
K: Myers and Maher will each kick four XPs and a FG.
DL: Garrett over Jones, usually, but Garrett faces Laremy Tunsil and Jones faces Cincinnati’s interior line. Then again, matchups are meaningless. IDPs do whatever they want.
LB: Brooks over Lavonte. David hasn’t been racking up tackles. His coverage is so good that teams don’t throw at him. His tackling is so good that teams don’t run at him. But Brooks’ coverage sucks. Teams throw at him constantly. And he’s fast. He racks up tackles, including 16 in each of his last two games.
DB: I don’t know why Cameron is starting Patrick Peterson. Advantage Evan.
DX: Milano over Edwards, big time. Milano is having his best season, on top of already really good seasons.
Cameron is more worthy of the title of League Villain. For that reason, even though I’m picking Evan to win, I just know Cameron will find a way to thwart me and lock up his playoff spot, while knocking Evan out of first place. If things shake out just right, if Sean and Coleman lose, Cameron’s win this week could put him in first place. Truly despicable shit.
The Brady Bowl
Buc over Pirate
That’s right, bitches. I’m not making the same mistake as last week. When you trade for a player, you start that player against their old team. You inhale those vibes, gravity bong style, and you blow dragon smoke in their stupid face.
QB: BRADY BABY over Dewek Caww wittuh baby gunna cwyyy… Do I believe it? I kind of do. Lamar is playing Denver and dealing with some hip thing and the Ravens cratered hard last week and might just dig a little bit deeper hole before digging themselves out. Brady is playing a team that keeps just fucking him up, and I’m sure he’s fucking sick of it, and I’m guessing that since this could be his final game against them that he just says fuck everybody and wills the Bucs back to .500, in what will be the grossest up-and-down road to a division win since the 7-9 Seahawks won their division with ancient-for-his-era Matt Hasselback. Derek Carr is a little baby gonna cry. Advantage ME HAHAHAHA
RB: 700 pounds vs. 225 pounds (Jonathan Taylor). Pathetic. Advantage ME
WR: Kirk and Metcalf vs. Gabe Davis, some trash asshole, Adam Thielen, and hopefully a WR from free agency because flexing Jerick McKinnon is fucking weak dude. ME
TE: Gerald Everett scored the 2-point conversion that won the Chargers the game last week. This will be the lasting memory as the team prepares for this week. Everett will get ten targets and score at least 10 FP, doubling that of David Njoku. If Max starts Higbee, who will likely lead the Rams in targets, then he could match Everett’s output. Wash.
K: Tucker over everybody, even my boy Koo
DL: Highsmith over Hunter. Highsmith is more involved, and he has the advantage of opposing offenses bringing the ball right to him as they avoid TJ Watt. Hunter is the guy teams are avoiding, and he, sir, is no TJ Watt.
LB: Quan/Queen over Warner and Kendricks. Yeah, sure, Warner and Kendricks might “be more complete” and “score more points” but what about phonemes, people? What. About. Phonemes.
DB: Sneed over Byard. And Derwin over both if he’s healthy.
The Family Ties Twofer
Krombopulos over Roy
QB: Herbert is hot again, and the Raiders are real bad. Dak is back, but the Colts are slightly feisty and know how to keep a lid on a game. I think the Raiders end up going all out for division pride or something dumb like that, and so their game with the Chargers resembles all their games, where they score 25+ and allow 25+. And if you thought the Raiders were dead, not quite. They only have seven losses. A win this week puts them one game back of the Chargers. Though making the playoff is unlikely, it would take two more losses to rule them out. Another 35-FP game on tap for Herbert. Dak is great, but the Cowboys don’t need him to throw much, lowering his fantasy ceiling. There is a slight chance Justin Fields plays, which would give Kennedy that out-of-this-world ceiling and help him upset his brother.
RB: Coleman starts Kamara, Pierce, and Walker. Kamara plays the Bucs, who stuff the run and have LBs capable of containing Kamara as a receiver. Pierce plays a weak Browns run defense, so he could have a big half and potentially play himself into increased playing time if he can break a long TD and keep the game from being a blowout. Walker plays the Rams sans Donald (and A’Shawn Robinson), so he should have a very high YPC and get more carries as the game gets further out of hand. Seems like a 30-FP week for him. Kennedy starts Ekeler, Lenny, and B.Robinson. Ekeler gets the same benefit as Herbert and could still his TDs, which would be a big swing in Kennedy’s favor. Lenny is practicing in full but who knows how much run he’ll get with Rachaad White playing well, or how effective Lenny will be against a tough Saints defense. Robinson’s arrow is pointing up, as Gibson is dealing with a foot injury. Gibson will probably play, but Robinson would get more work against a mediocre Giants defense.
WR: Justin Jefferson and Chris Olave vs. Zay Jones and Christian Watson. Yeah.
TE: Dawson Knox vs. Foster Moreau is definitely the billing for a great American duel, replete with the glove slapping and whisker twisting and all the fixings. I do declare.
K: I want to say nice things about Graham Gano, but that negative-2 lingers in my memory. Robbie Gould is old, boring, and weak, but he’s been pretty solid this season.
IDP: Coleman all day. Crosby, Parsons, Sauce, and Bolton are the Beatles of Mortydome. Kennedy’s crew is off-brand, and while it gets the job done against most of us, it’s nothing compared to Coleman’s.
Going over Doing (again)
It is very rare to even have back-to-back games against the same person, even rarer to lose both of those games. But just as Kyler was getting his groove back, the Cards go on bye, leaving Shelby not the worst alternative in Geno Smith, especially against a Donald-less Rams team that’s quiet quitting on the season. The Rams are content to shut down everybody. The only solid starter they have left is Jalen Ramsey, and I’m not really sure why they haven’t slapped a fake injury on him yet. Maybe I overestimate how willing NFL teams are to quit. Maybe they offered Ramsey a fake injury and he declined. Anyway.
QB: Geno should tear the Rams to shreds unless Ken Walker beats him to it. But I don’t know. Raheem Morris is supercompetitive and wants a head-coaching job. If he gets this Rams defense to win games without Donald or an offense, that’s the ticket back into head-coaching. But Corey is starting Burrow in the maybe-shootout against the Chiefs. Yes, the game could be tight, keeping Burrow at like 250 yards and two TDs. But even that coupled with some scrambles is a 25-point game. Add one more TD and we’re in the 30s. Generally speaking, Burrow has more points and a higher ceiling. Advantage Corey, but for some reason I’m hesitant to say it.
RB: Antonio Gibson might not play. In that case, Corey starts James Robinson, or he looks to free agency, but what is even in free agency? Kyren Williams is taking over the Rams’ backfield. Jaylen Warren will probably start for the Steelers this week. I’m not going any deeper. It all gets too murky past those two. Either way, Joe Mixon is coming back from concussion and will outscore the other RBs in this matchup, including Rachaad White, who is fun but will go black to splitting work with Lenny coming back. Still, two RBs are better than one.
WR: And four WRs are better than three, especially when we’re talking about Waddle, Lockett, Meyers, and DeVonta versus Diggs, Juju, and Boyd. Shelby might go back to DPJ over Boyd, but with Chase coming back, it feels like the middle of the field will open up for Boyd again. Boyd was killing when all the Bengals were healthy. Once Chase went down, Boyd got moved outside and somebody named Trent Irwin was getting those sweet slot targets. Diggs is better than Waddle, to the tune of five points per game, but Corey’s ensemble is good for 40 minimum, outshining Shelby’s frontman in anything but an extraordinary week. Playing the Pats in Foxborough feels like the time for an extraordinary week. Advantage Shelby.
TE: Kittle feels like the obvious choice, but Hockenson has slightly outscored him. BUT Corey’s not starting Hockenson. He’s starting Freiermuth, who is also top-10 in TE scoring. Slight advantage Shelby, big advantage if Deebo sits out this week.
K: No
DL: Shelby still needs to replace Aaron Donald. She’s got plenty of options. None of them are as good as Nick Bosa. But Khalil Mack plays the Raiders, which feels like a revenge game but it’s been a while, Gruden is gone, and Mack never played in Vegas. Still, he’s a bull and he’s due for a sack or two.
LB: Devin White over everybody
DB: Minkah over the other Diggs brother? Maybe. Minkah plays the Falcons, who don’t throw very much. Trevon Diggs plays the Colts, who low-key throw a ton when Matt Ryan is quarterbacking.
I think I gave Shelby more advantages, but then I also didn’t even do the advantage thing consistently here. I want Shelby to win and knock Corey out of the playoffs. I think Corey has the more consistent team with the higher ceiling. So… guessing Corey, rooting for Shelby. Fence-sitting like there’s something on the line.
All right, people. Kick some rival ass. Say mean things to Brian for picking up Watson. Peace.
