Why, yes, it is bullshit that I won a game this week and all it did was keep me in 5th place, while Cameron won a game and moved from 6th to 4th. Cameron and I were almost even in scoring heading into the week. I scored 136 and scraped out a gritty win. A blue collar win. The kind of win that makes you proud to be an American. Cameron scored 211 and won by 110 and left 28 points on the bench, basically just a disgusting slob of a king taking one bite from a turkey leg and throwing the rest into the polluted river while the serfs watch from the other side, scraping a single shriveled potato from black, dry earth. A despicable display of opulence. The kind of behavior that motivated our forefathers to leave the old world and invent Thanksgiving in the first place.
It’s also bullshit that Kyle Pitts is hurt. I found peace leaving him in my lineup and getting five points every week. It was a relief to just not think about it. And he was getting targets! There was evidence he would have big weeks and be better than most TEs eventually. I will 100% sign up for this experience again, pay the same price and everything. He is very good, and I don’t regret taking a chance on him. Don’t cry for Kyle Pitts. He’ll be TE1 next year.
Pour one out for Justin Fields, though. A separated shoulder for a power-running QB is bad news. This is the injury that Baker Mayfield played through two years ago, and it didn’t just ruin Mayfield’s career; it ruined the NFL. If Mayfield goes on IR and misses the season, the Browns don’t have nearly as much evidence against him being a franchise QB. Before the injury in 2021, Baker was 3-2, losing to the Chiefs by four and the Chargers by five. Had he just gone on IR, who knows what would have happened. But he gutted it out, went 4-7, including all these crazy fucking wind games that made him look extra awful, and the Browns had cause to trade him away for whatever they could get. That leads to the Watson trade, the guaranteed contract, the ensuing allegations from the Player’s Association that the league is colluding against guaranteed contracts for any other player... it’s ugly, and it’s all because a big tough guy wanted to prove he was big and tough. My hope for Justin Fields is that he goes on IR and comes back next year.
It would end Oliver’s season. Maybe. Oliver has already put Russell Wilson in his lineup, which is a white flag if I’ve ever seen one. But I think Oliver has enough hope to make an offer for Dak. Kennedy’s team is in a nosedive, and he can’t start two Panthers anymore.
Let’s talk about the Panthers and Broncos, who made some interesting moves after their most recent losses. Carolina benched Baker, who is 1-5 in six starts, granted 1-4 of it was before the Panthers fired a bunch of coaches and hand everything over to Steve Wilks. They turn to Sam Darnold, who gets shit on a ton but is for sure better than Baker Mayfield. Even the year they were drafted, the consensus was that even though Baker had better college stats, Darnold had better traits, including more mobility and a better arm. Bring the DJ Moore party bus around the block again, and let’s make some bad decisions! Shit maybe Oliver starts Darnold.
The Broncos released Melvin Gordon AFTER finding out that Chase Edmonds is going ot be out for a month, meaning it’s Latavius Murray and… Buehler? Buehler? The real answers are Devine Ozigbo and Marlon Mack. Yes, friends, Marlon Mack is going to score double-digit fantasy points in a playoff week in 2022. I cannot tell if this is a tank move for the Broncos. My theory is that they’re going to let Russ cook, i.e., have him throw 50 times per game, Brady-style. Only good can come of this. Either Russ cooks and the Broncos look not-screwed going into the offseason, OR the undeniable failure forces Russ into an early retirement while also securing the Broncos a… high… draft… shit. SHIT. They traded that pick for Russ! So even tanking screws them. Fuuuuck. That is grim. I still think they have to just hand Russ the offense and throw a billion times. The defense is too good. If you haven’t seen it yet, there’s a stat that keeps floating around every week about what they Broncos’ record would be if they’d just scored 18 points in regulation each week. They’re up to 9-1. They would be 9-1 if they scored 18 points every game. I want to emphasize that there are 25 teams averaging 18 per game. The Broncos are dead last at 14.7, and entire point per game behind the TEXANS, PEOPLE.
Amari Cooper for Melvin Gordon looks especially bad right now, but Melvin Gordon is going to sign somewhere, and he is guaranteed to join an offense scoring more points per game than the Broncos. He cleared waivers and is free to choose his next team. I’m guessing he wants to go to a playoff team with a good chance of making the Super Bowl. The Eagles would be a good fit. They don’t need him, but it doesn’t matter. He would instantly add power to their RB room. The Bucs could go for it depending on Lenny’s hip situation. Other potential playoff teams who might make use of him: Bills (more power than they have currently), Chargers (higher quality 1B than the rookie Spiller), Bengals (Mixon insurance), Giants (better Barkley insurance than Breida), Seahawks (1B), Jets (currently a committee and not a good one). And maybe the Falcons, though they like what they have. I considered him as insurance for the Titans, but current backup Hilliard brings as much to the table as Gordon and the rookie Haskins provides more power. The best move for fantasy would be if Gordon either signs with the Jets or waits for someone to get hurt. Actually, I didn’t mention the Chiefs, who just lost CEH for an extended period. Melvin gives you everything you’re getting from CEH. And in that case, Gordon would get to play against the Broncos this year.
Rivalry Week is next week, but after some discussion in the chat, here are the matchups:
Coleman vs. Kennedy – The Two Brothers Bowl, f.k.a. the Swole Bowl, brought to you by genetics
Max vs. Doak – the BIG DIFF, Old Soul, No Blocké, Da Fuzz, Boy Do I, Mario Super Strikers, Dr. Seuss Bong [whatever other inside joke Max can add to the mix] Bowl, brought to you by Independent Day School and marijuana
Evan vs. Cam – The Young Dads & Old Villains Bowl, brought to you by some bar before my bachelor party
Corey vs. Shelby – The Battle for Who Wears the Pants, brought to you by love and marriage
Oliver vs. Spencer – The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Rural United States Bowl, brought to you by Lucky Strike
Sean vs. Brian – The Battle for DC, brought to you by I’m too cheap to buy a wedding present so take this free win (just kidding… or am I? Who knows? I’m real salty about Sean maybe locking up a bye week outta this)
Also next week: trade deadline. You have until the end of Monday’s game between the Bucs and Saints to have a deal done. Any deal accepted after an involved player’s game starts will process for the following week. If you have seven losses now, you’re probably out. If you have eight losses after this week, you are definitely out. Go get some draft picks or some potential keepers.
We have three playoff teams: Evan, Coleman, and Sean each have eight wins. That’s all it takes. Okay, technically it takes that plus a significant points lead over the three teams on the outside of the playoff bubble. Any of Evan, Sean, or Coleman could still end up in sixth, but that’s the floor now.
I believe Spencer and Corey are effectively eliminated. They’re mathematically alive. Right now, the 6-seed (Kennedy) has a 5-6 record, as do the three teams behind him (Max, Shelby, Oliver). None of those four teams are playing each other either of the next two weeks, meaning they could each lose two games and drop to 5-8. All four could lose the melee, as well. Spencer is pretty cooked in the points. He’d need a 200-FP game just to get back in the mix, in addition to a specific five teams losing three consecutive games apiece. But it’s fun that Spencer’s not dead yet. He scored 160 last week with our of his usual starters on bye. 200 isn’t out of the question.
Corey needs a little less help. He only needs four teams to lose all of their remaining games. And he has way less ground to makeup in the points. Still, the light is fading fast. On glimmer fo hope: all of his bye weeks are in the past.
A loss for either Corey or Spencer means mathematical elimination, regardless of what happens for anyone else.
Cameron’s next win should clinch his playoff spot. I’m basing this on his significant points lead over the teams behind him. He’s up 70 on Kennedy and me and up nearly 200 on Oliver, Max, and Shelby. (I’m sticking to my assumption that the worst record to make the playoffs will be 7-7, even though it’s mathematically possible right now for the 6-seed to be 6-8.)
Trade update: Aaron Rodgers revealed this week that he broke his thumb in Week 5 and it’s still fucking broken, yet I can’t convince myself that this makes him worse than Brady. Also, with Lamar dealing with some hip injury, I’m low-key looking at Brady like someone I might start? I can’t, though. I’ve preached too much about picking a starting QB and sticking with him unless the wheels fall off or the other guy gets stupid hot.
My favorite parts of last week:
The part where Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, and my IDPs carried my team to a weak victory.
The part where Jacoby Brissett would have won the cash game and possible swung some matchups.
The part where Cameron’s margin of victory was more than his opponent’s score.
The part where Oliver crawled back out of the gutter, only to have his head pushed back down by this Fields injury.
The part where I guaranteed Sean would go on a losing streak but instead he scored 180 in consecutive weeks.
The part where Kennedy’s kicker scored in the negative while all other kickers scored 20+.
My least favorite part was the part where Coleman didn’t even start Nick Bolton, who scored 21 and would have gotten Coleman with 10 FP of taking over first place.
Russell Wilson over Kirk Cousins
Oliver and Brian’s matchup is more complicated, but Brian’s team has fallen completely apart. Meanwhile Oliver’s team has pulled through the belly of the whale and emerged on the playoff bubble. This year, Travis Kelce has scored 100 more FP than the next best TE. Barkley and McCaffrey are ranked fifth and sixth in RB scoring. Keenan Allen is back. Allen Robinson is now the Rams’ best player. TJ Watt is back. Isiah Pacheco is legit the starting RB for KC. With a healthy Justin Fields, this team was honestly a threat to win the league this year. Even with Russell Wilson starting, Oliver can scrape together a win this week. Brian is starting Kirk Cousins in a primetime game that starts after Thanksgiving dinner. Russell Wilson will have more fantasy points than the Vikings have actual points.
C’mon over In-N-Out
First of all, Sean’s too hot. His DB CJGJ has interceptions in five straight games. His LB Zaire Franklin leads the league in tackles even though none of us had heard of him. Sean’s getting 15 FP from a different Broncos LB every week. His kicker just put up 26 in a game. Jamaal Williams leads the league in touchdowns. Jalen Hurts is probably going to win the MVP? I refuse to believe this many independent variables keep working this well together. What’s going to be real fun is Ja’Marr Chase coming back this week only play decoy, getting a solid zero in Sean’s lineup, unless of course Sean benches him, in which case Chase will prove he is superhuman and lead all WRs in scoring despite being on crutches for three straight weeks before the game. I don’t have a good argument for Spencer. His matchups are kinda trash. I just need to be right about Sean losing just once before I can go back to predicting wins for him en route to his championship.
Doing over Going
Kyler Murray isn’t going to be as good as Geno Smith this season, but I too would have a hard time making the switch. Over their last three games, the difference between them is negligible. Kyler still feels like the one with the upside. Geno still feels like he’s one bad game away from being a backup for the rest of his career. I would rather have Joe Burrow but maybe not against the Titans, who are too smart at exploiting team’s weaknesses (as long as the opposing team;s strength isn’t speed). I have Burrow and Brady in my other league, and the only reason I haven’t locked in Brady yet is because the Bucs are going to play in 30-degree weather this weekend in Cleveland. But so for this matchup, I am picking Shelby, and I’m assuming Joe Mixon doesn’t play. Mixon sitting sounds bad for Shelby, but the Titans matchup is such trash, it’ll save Shelby from having to play Mixon (because Mixon is the caliber of player you must play regardless of matchup) and enable her to give Rachaad White another chance. I think White takes over the Bucs job for the regular season, allowing Lenny time to get right for the playoffs. Ideally, the Bucs can give 60% of the action to White and just use Lenny in like a “stay in shape” kinda way until January. Corey’s team is good, especially for being stuck in 10th place, but he’s the reigning champ. I’m contractually obligated to root for his failure.
Pirates over Lyfe
Cameron is starting Tua again, but Max has the antidote. Whatever success Tua has, at least half of it will be because of the trash asshole, making it more important for the rest of Cameron’s team to perform. I think Etienne, Jacobs, and Cooper get shut down by their matchups. Pollard will probably be good, but not insane like he has been. Adams will probably flirt with 20 again. Jordyn Brooks will continue racking up tackles and dropping interceptions. Max has Aaron Rodgers coming off his admission about the broken thumb. Feels like one of two things is happening. Either Rodgers actually feels better and so isn’t as worried about tipping his hand, OR Rodgers is confident the Eagles defense is too much to handle and wanted to get his excuse in before the embarrassment. I would feel more confident picking Max if he weren’t flexing Kenyan Drake right now. There’s so much out there that isn’t Kenyan Drake. But alas, I’ve made my pick. I’ll put my chips on Jonathan Taylor, Gabe Davis, and these IDPs.
Alphas over Assassins
I just feel like I’m going to win again this week. This is my yearly playoff push. I make the playoffs. It’s what I do. Plus, Coleman has dreadful matchups pretty much everywhere, and my alpha squad hasn’t gone nuclear in a few weeks. It’s been middle of the road. It’s either time to barely score 100 or break this season’s high score again. I don’t understand what Coleman sees in DB Duron Harmon, who doesn’t even score a lot, and I’m considering it bulletin board material for the week. Fuck you, Duron Harmon. I’m hoping DK Metcalf scores multiple TDs where Harmon is the closest defender, mostly because I want Coleman to drop him and start a better lineup and make a serious play for this championship, bay-beeee!
Tiny Rick continues Roy’s nightmare
I want to keep as many people’s playoff windows open as possible so that they aren’t trading their best players to the teams that already clinched. And if Evan keeps winning, he’s less likely to think he even needs to trade a pick for a player. So let’s go, Evan! Assert that dominance! Force Kennedy to trade for another WR before this season ends!
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Hope you all enjoy something nice with people you love. And I guess go USA soccer? I realized way too long after making my cash game guess that our country is bad at this sport and picking them to win was probably not the best strategy, but fuck it! USA 3-1 all day, assholes!
