The commissioner’s jinx lives on. I said Corey would go on a three-game heater. He was bottom of the league in scoring last week. I said Sean would lose, literally guaranteed it, and he scored 15 more FP than any other team. I said other things that maybe did or didn’t happen, but they don’t fit the narrative, so we proceed.
BREAKING NEWS (to me, writing this note Thursday evening): Aaron Rodgers is being traded for the second straight week. First, I threw a late pick to Oliver so I could start Rodgers over the free agent mess, and now, I pass Rodgers (and another late pick) onto Max for Tom Brady. Why? Why do I do this to myself? Rodgers was just getting good. But look: I hate Aaron Rodgers more than I hate Tom Brady. I needed to get rid of Rodgers, and I saw an opportunity. Max is sick of Brady, Brady is on bye, Carr is facing the league’s #1 pass defense, and Rodgers is facing a ramshackle Titans secondary. Rodgers also issued a resounding, “We’re not dead,” following Sunday’s epic comeback against the Cowboys, leading everyone to believe this is the part where Rodgers will them into the playoffs, probably even steals a playoff game before inevitably losing in the conference championship again, but by then, he won’t be Max’s problem. Max is getting the blistering hot Rodgers that could lead his 5-5 team to the playoffs and take him to glory with playoff matchups against the Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings.
Even though I never needed a real backup QB, I really never needed my 13th and 14th picks. Here are my 13th and 14th picks the last few years:
2022: Isaiah McKenzie & Boston Scott
2021: Montez Sweat, Myles Jack, Mark Ingram, & Giovani Bernard
2020: Preston Williams, Golden Tate, & Chris Thompson
2019: Damien Harris & Deebo Samuel
2019 looks awesome, but Harris played just two games that year, and Deebo didn’t do much the first half of the season. The other years speak for themselves. Trading away these picks saves me from myself next year. Give me two empty bench spots and a good night’s sleep before I have to fill them.
All right, let’s get into each team, going from hottest to coldest.
Coleman is on a four-game win streak., matching Evan for second-longest heater this season. Sean won six in a row from Weeks 2-7. During his streak, Coleman has scored 182, 159, 147, and 139. Okay, so technically he’s not the hottest team. At this rate, he should score in the 120s this week. A big reason is Justin Herbert, whose last four weeks were 23, bye, 17, 15. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams return this week. Having a QB with 30-FP games gives Coleman a chance to grab the top spot in the standings, as soon as this week. If he does that, he has to think seriously about trading picks for players.
Max and I are on three game win-streaks and just swapped fading goats, but besides the goats, our rosters couldn’t have less in common. My team is strictly alphas; every guy is the guy, to the point I have to question whether AJ Dillon ever really fit. Dameon Pierce was always the fit. I’m going to think about this for a long time. It’s going to corrupt future decision-making, for sure. Max’s team, meanwhile, is Jonathan Taylor, two trash assholes, and bunch of betas. We are not the same. When we played each other in Week 5, I won by 50. If we played each other each of the last three weeks, I would be… 2-1. Dammit. I was really hoping to nail that coffin. To be fair, I’m only scoring about nine points per game more than Max over the whole year. BUT to come back around and assert my alpha status one more time for good measure, Max’s high score this year is 171 FP. That would be my fifth best week this year. And Derrick Henry throws touchdowns now. Fear me.
Oliver, Evan, and Sean have the next best win streaks with one, each topping 150 FP last week. Oliver’s 4-6 team isn’t allowed to make direct eye contact with Evan or Sean’s or else we have to chop their left hand off, but Justin Fields could change that. Fields has 140 FP in the last three weeks. Josh Allen has 87. And 87 is good! That’s almost 30 per week! Jalen Hurts has 90, exactly 30 per week. These are probably the three most dangerous QBs in fantasy? They combine power and speed and derring-do. Lamar is kind of there, but his WRs are woof. Mahomes is kind of there, but he runs like he’s gotta shit and it’s turtling. Lamar is kind of there, but I’m seriously concerned about his TD numbers with the cast of characters the Ravens are willing to throw out there every week. Sean just added CeeDee Lamb without giving up a player. So his best lineup includes, first of all, Lamar’s only trustworthy receiver, plus Ja’Marr Chase, Cedarian Lamb, three RBs getting insane volume, and Jalen Hurts putting up 25 minimum, giving Sean like a 150-FP floor going forward. So no one is hanging with Sean.
As good as Evan’s record is, I can’t say for sure his team is better than Oliver’s right now. Evan leads the league in depth, but at some point, you have to sacrifice a little bit of depth to put together a single lineup that can take on Sean. Evan has both Dolphins backs, both set to score 15 FP per game the rest of the way, but he can’t squeeze them in his lineup because he’s got Amon-Ra and Miles Sanders clogging the flex. I think we’ve got a Moneyball situation here. This team took over the league for a stretch, but if Allen is a human man and not a fantasy train, and Nick Chubb is your only guy consistently putting 20 FP on the board, there’s a decent chance you eat shit against a team getting a combined 100 out of Fields, Barkley, CMC, and Kelce.
Shelby, Corey, and Cam each have started a losing streak. That’s what we call losing one game now: starting a losing streak. These three teams are on the playoff fringe. Corey is one loss away from being out—he can’t make up enough ground in the points to win a tiebreaker. Shelby’s point-total isn’t much better, but she has the advantage of still being able to win nine games and avoid a tiebreaker altogether. Cameron is up 100 on both of them and has the best team of the bunch. In the last three weeks, Cameron has added Tua and Toney, and he’s gotten CryptoHenry back from injury. This week, Mike Williams returns. Suddenly Cameron has more depth than Evan. Shelby is barely setting a full lineup through these bye weeks and injuries. Last week, she lost by six because both of her starting WRs got hurt in the first quarter. It’s the worst luck at the worst time. BUT this is the last week of bye weeks that hurt her, unless you count Kyler’s, which I do not; I think this is Geno’s team now. I don’t think Corey is in the playoff chase anymore, but I’m playing him this week, so I can’t go down that road.
We are in Week 11. The trade deadline is the end of Week 13 (aka Rivalry Week), right up until the end of Monday Night Football. Then there will be a melee. Then there will be playoffs and the pick ladder. If you clinch a playoff spot before that, it makes sense to throw out a mid-round pick for a player who can help you. I say this one year after trading a 5th for OBJ, who was a depth piece so deep I couldn’t even use him in the playoffs. Don’t do that. If you’re not getting an everyweek starter, don’t waste a decent pick. Those late picks, though, if your track record is anything like mine, get whatever you can for them.
Krombopulos over Mombopulos
I think I’ve been spelling Krombopulos wrong every week until now. Anyway, Coleman can take first place with a win this week. I feel invested after giving him Dameon Pierce and relieving him of AJ Dillon. I would estimate the Pierce is responsible for at least 10% of Coleman’s success. I feel like if I trade Coleman another starter and he wins the championship, I might be legally entitled to a share of the purse. But anyway.
QB: Kyler has been sacked 17 times in his last four games. Justin Herbert has been sacked 12 times all season. Kyler plays San Francisco, who average over three sacks per game, good for fourth in the NFL. They lead all defenses in yards allowed and first downs allowed. Last time Kyler played them, he had 15 FP. Herbert plays the Chiefs, who get sacks but are otherwise average. Advantage Coleman.
RB: Joe Mixon’s last game set the single-player high score. Alvin Kamara’s last game was hist worst since Week 2 of last season. Ken Walker is on bye. Dameon Pierce plays a Commanders’ defense that just held the Eagles under 100 rushing yards. Shelby might throw Michael Carter in the flex. Carter scored 19 FP against Buffalo before the Jet’s Week 10 bye. Slight advantage Shelby.
WR: We got Justin Jefferson vs. Stefon Diggs in reality last week. This week we get it in fantasy. We also get Justin Jefferson vs. Trevon Diggs in reality and fantasy. Shelby’s starting Diggs, Boyd, and Peoples-Jones. Coleman’s starting Jefferson, Olave, and McLaurin. Coleman has the better names and the better matchups. Big advantage.
TE: Kittle over Knox. Adv. Shelby
K: whatever
IDP: Coleman has the #2 and #3 IDPs in Crosby and Parsons. Shelby has #1 (Devin White) but he’s on bye. Shelby also has #6 Rashaan Evans, but without White, it’s hard to see her stacking up against the best IDP unit in Mortydome.
So Coleman wins and whether he gets first or not depends on…
20 min. Adventure over Tiny Rick
If Evan wins, he’s alone in first place for at least another week. If Sean wins, he and Evan will have the same record (8-3), but Sean would have to win by 90 to win a points tiebreaker. The only realistic way Evan loses first place this week is if Coleman wins, Sean wins, and Coleman outscores Evan by 32.
QB: Hurts plays on the road against a decent Indy defense coming off an unexpected win in Vegas. The Eagles should rush for 500 yards and score a million points. Josh Allen plays the Browns in Detroit. Due to six feet of snow in Buffalo, the Bills-Browns game was moved to Detroit. Things are anything but normal, and that favors the underdog Browns. Advantage Sean.
RB: Even with luck on the Browns’ side, Nick Chubb is unlikely to have a big game against this elite Bills’ defense. However, Miles Sanders gets the same advantage as Jalen Hurts on the ground in Indy. Sean is starting Dalvin Cook, flexing Jamaal Williams and James Conner, giving him a solid shot at 60 FP from this position alone. Advantage Sean
WR: Sean traded for Lamb and he needs him to repeat last week’s heroics to prop up Courtland Sutton, who’s frankly not very good. He’s turned top-20 target volume into barely top-40 production in fantasy. He’s Mike Williams without the speed and muscles. Drafted by anyone but the Broncos, he’d have been lost in the shuffle and released and on his third team by now. He’s a glorified Denzel Mims. Evan’s starting AJ Brown (who will be shut down by Stephon Gilmore), Amon-Ra St. Brown (who will score somewhere between 10 and 20 points), and George Pickens (season debut for Evan’s team! Great matchup against a banged-up Bengals secondary!). Advantage Evan
TE: Kmet over Andrews. Justin Fields is white-hot, and Kmet has been the prime beneficiary. I think it continues against Atlanta.
K: in an otherwise close matchup, kicker could swing this one, but I won’t pretend to know or care. I traded for Justin Tucker so that I wouldn’t have to think about kickers anymore.
IDP: the names are odd, but the points have been fucking nuts. Zadarius Smith and Javon Hargrave each have over 50 FP in the last three weeks. CJGJ is the #1 DB after five insane weeks. Zaire Franklin is second in the NFL in tackles. Three of those guys are Sean’s, giving him the advantage. Evan’s group is a little more rag-tag. Matt Milano has been solid but not always healthy, while Harrison Smith and Willie Gay have been up-and-down. Adv. Sean
Aaron Rodgers over Oliver
I really didn’t consider who Max was playing this week when I made the trade. I don’t want Oliver to lose because I don’t want a better team to add Travis Kelce before the playoffs. I want Oliver in the playoff mix, so I kind of need him to win. But it would be funny if Aaron Rodgers was the last face Oliver saw before the last drop of playoff hope drained out of him.
QB: We already know Rodgers scored 24. Fields is going to beat that.
RB: Barkley and CMC over Taylor and Gordon. By a mile.
WR: the six WRs in this matchup are Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Brandon Aiyuk, Gabe Davis, Rondale Moore, and Adam Thielen, which feels uninspiring on the surface. Does it matter which three are on which team? I guess if it were Robinson, Mooney, and Thielen, that would be clearly worse than Aiyuk, Davis, and Moore. But it’s not, so it’s a wash. But throw Keenan Allen in there or take a chance on Darius Slayton? Oliver could get an advantage here. Mooney should be benched if AJ Terrell starts for the Falcons.
TE: Kelce over everybody.
K: my boy Kooooo
DL: TJ Watt vs. Alex Highsmith is fun. Highsmith is having a breakout season, mostly with Watt out. Last week he outscored Watt 15-3. Excited to see which one sacks Burrow more this week.
LB: Mosley vs. Warner is fun because Mosley is playing the same role now that Warner played for years under Saleh, and he looks like one of the best LBs in the league again. Hicks vs. Kendricks is fun because they both play for the Vikings, and Hicks is actually outscoring Kendricks, out-tackling him, too.
DB: Budda Baker revenge game?
Oliver’s lineup isn’t set yet. I mentioned Keenan Allen, and I also want to spotlight Isiah Pacheco, mostly to make Oliver crazy. Max’s lineup could get a little stronger if Gus Edwards gets ruled out for the Ravens and Kenyan Drake gets another game of getting all the carries. I think the math leans in Oliver’s favor, so I’m just betting on dumb shit happening to deliver Max a victory. Oliver winning would be better for those of us in the 5-5 rat king right now. It pulls Max out of the mix without putting Oliver firmly in. Oliver remains one loss away from elimination.
C’mon Football over C’mon Roy
I’m willing it into existence. I’m willing Mariota to throw three TDs, all to Kyle Pitts. I’m willing Najee Harris to wake the fuck up and take back this Steelers’ backfield. Mostly I’m just putting my chips on a kicker named Dicker.
QB: Mahomes over everybody.
RB: Najee, Jones, and DMG over Foreman, Ekeler, and Robinson. Jones already had 11. I’m betting on a Najee renaissance and DMG getting 25 carries with Khalil Herbert on IR. I don’t think Brian Robinson is very good, but he’ll have another solid outing against a bad defense. Ekeler is the X-factor here. If Allen and Williams come back, the Chiefs will leave space underneath for Ekeler to work. Should be a 20-FP game. Anything higher could tilt this whole matchup in Kennedy’s favor. Right now, RB is even.
WR: Tee Higgins and Garrett Wilson should double whatever DJ and Lazard do. Adv. Spe.
TE: Spencer is starting Tyree Jackson, a college QB turned pro TE who hasn’t seen game action since the end of last season. I’m fucking stoked for it. Jackson is a matchup problem for opposing LB and safeties, and he gives the Eagles a bunch of trick play potential. If (Evan cover your eyes) Jalen Hurts gets hurt, Tyree Jackson could be another Taysom Hill.
K: whatever
IDP: Judon leads the league in sacks, Tranquill is a revelation at LB, Eddie Jackson is in the mix to lead the league in interceptions, and if Jordan Poyer’s injury is behind him, he’s an elite DB. This group gives Spencer an advantage over J. Allen (1.5 last week), Demario Davis (7.5), Ramsey (5.5), and Luvu (alternating between 20-FP games and 2-FP games, coming off a 20). Sure, we can say there’s value in riding the wave, watching as Allen, Davis, and Ramsey bounce back and combined for 30. But I want Spencer to win and knock another team below .500.
Derrick Henry over Goingback2back
QB: Lamar flu game over Joe Burrow off bye. The last time Burrow played the Steelers, had had five turnovers and still scored 18 FP. I see him getting sacked a bunch but not turning it over as much. I think 25 is realistic, but I would bet the under. Lamar is sick but it’s not COVID for once—or it is, but I’ve already said I’m not digging into the lesser aspects of the league this season for the sake of my own enjoyment; nobody has missed a game with COVID yet, which is impossible because I’ve had like ten coworkers get COVID since the season started. Anyway… playing sick is cool because it puts you more in that flow state that leads to brilliance. It also makes you totally unreliable. Slight advantage Corey.
RB: Henry already has 31 after having a shit-ton of yards, a rushing TD, and throwing a jump-pass TD to Austin Hooper. It begs the question: why snap the ball to anyone but Derrick Henry? How about an RPO where the RB gets to decide whether to pound the rock or flip it out to the QB? But so I’m starting Henry, Rhamondre, and Gus Edwards, who are combined 700 pounds, and I’m not exaggerating. 247 + 227 + 238 = 712 pounds of rock solid dude coming at your face. Corey is starting James Robinson and Antonio Gibson, each of whom weighs less than my lightest RB. Get big, chief. Advantage: Darwin.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins has 76 FP in four weeks since returning from suspension. Friends, I can now say from experience, if you have a chance to draft an elite WR in the ninth round and all you have to do is clog a bench spot for the first six weeks, the payoff is worth it. Because of bye weeks, my other WR is MVS, who is the de facto #1 WR for the Chiefs with Juju concussed. But he could still end up with zero points. Because of bye weeks for Waddle and Lockett, Corey’s forced to start DeVonta, Jakobi, and Duvernay, who aren’t terrible. I’d say we’re even here.
TE: Kyle Pitts is scoring three TDs, remember? Well, Hockenson feels like the matchup advantage for the Vikings offense against the Cowboys, so Pitts might need all three to take Corey’s advantage at this position.
K: Justin Tucker over everyone
IDP: strong competition here. David Long already has 13. Nick Bosa is the best IDP in this matchup, but Roquan Smith’s not far off. The rub is that Roquan is in his third week in a new defense. He will get a lot of chances to make plays, but this soon into it, he won’t be that stalwart LB we’re used to who’s always in the right place at the right time. I have a bunch of IDPs on my roster right now and am not totally sure I won’t tinker on gameday. Corey will cut Elliot and put Minkah back in the lineup, giving him a slight advantage.
Corey has little edges here and there, but I’m leaning on my massive RBs to carry my team another week.
Lyfe is Short over Brian is Bad
The tank is on, and so Cameron gets a win this week, Oliver gets a win next week, and Corey gets a win the week after that. This is beautiful because it is yet another sliver of hope keeping Kelce on Oliver’s roster. The details of this matchup don’t matter. What matters is that Brian has the cash game lead with 23 from Ryan Tannehill, and considering the parameters of this week’s game (most points from a starter who at one point played pro or college ball for a Florida-based team), 23 is pretty high. Other contenders: Kadarius Toney (also in this matchup), Dalvin Cook, Dameon Pierce, Gabe Davis, Allen Robinson, MVS. Dark horses: James Robinson, Kenyan Drake, Kyle Pitts (who will actually win), Derwin James, CJGJ…
Devin Singletary would be a decent candidate, but Sean’s not starting him. Van Jefferson and Jarvis Landry would be dark horses if they were on rosters. Otherwise, it seems like a bunch of kickers.
Oh shit EXCEPT Jacoby Brissett, who plays the Bills but at least plays QB and can luck into 30 FP easier than any other position. If you think you’ll lose this week anyway, might as well take a shot at some cash and start Brissett!
But this matchup is what it is. It is Cameron’s game to lose, and it would be delicious to see that happen. Jimmy G could easily score single-digit points. Cameron’s best players have the worst matchups. But really only so much can go wrong, and Brian can only capitalize so much. This isn’t a commissioner’s jinx. This game is over.
