Don’t tell Spencer and Brian, but Week 8 was the highest scoring fantasy week this season. And it was the week Max’s luck finally turned. He notched a victory with 151 FP while two teams outscored him and lost. Max is going to need that luck to make his recent trade with Cameron work. The details: Max receives Melvin Gordon; Cam receives Amari Cooper. I don’t feel the need to explain. I think we all know. BUT I will say for emphasis that in addition to all the other stuff we know, Amari Cooper is younger than Melvin Gordon.
Oliver and I made a trade, as well, swapping CJ Mosley for Khalil Mack. Mosley is a much better fantasy player than Mack so far this season, and I offered the trade because it would force Oliver to start a full lineup. It could have blown up in my face, especially after Mosley scored like 10 FP in the first quarter of his game. I was going to have to drop Mosley for the byepocalypse anyway, so it doesn’t really matter what I got back. That was, of course, assuming Patrick Queen’s breakout was really happening, and that the Ravens weren’t suddenly going to add a significantly better LB at this point. Queen scored 4 FP on Thursday night, and the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith on Tuesday. Roquan Smith is literally the best off-ball LB in the game. We can tout our Lavonte and Devin White, but I’m sorry. Roquan is like if you combined all their positives and none of their negatives. He’s either Devin White with coverage skills or Lavonte with speed and pass-rush acumen. He’s sick. I want him in fantasy as bad as I’ve wanted any IDP.
The trade deadline was cool. I don’t need an NFL trade deadline, and I definitely don’t need it Week 8, but it’s cool that players are changing teams and getting a jump start on improving their situations. I don’t want it to become like the NBA deadline, which involves as many money moves as it does legitimate roster-building moves. So far, so good, I think. Here are some flash takes, going way back to a trade nobody really talked about when it happened:
Deion Jones joined the Browns three weeks ago. In Week 10 (after the Browns’ bye), Jones will be playing every snap and racking up tackles.
Robbie Anderson is not someone you start in fantasy, but he stretches the field for the Cardinals and improves the scores of Hopkins, Moore, whatever RB, and Kyler as long as Kyler stops having so many sacks and picks.
CMC makes the 49ers a Super Bowl contender and makes it easier for the offense to spread the ball to all four of their major playmakers.
James Robinson was going to be a thing for the Jets before their o-line fell apart. Now, he’s going to get a nice even split with Michael Carter for an offense that, uh, fucking sucks?
Kadarius Toney and the Giants conspired to keep him out of games long enough to get good value back. The Chiefs gave up a 3rd, which is a lot for a player who’s been on a roster for 25 games and played like two good ones. Toney can be the Chiefs’ best WR, but I think the Chiefs are more interested in having a zillion good players and keeping defenses guessing where the ball is going. But based on potential, Toney is the only WR on this roster capable of seizing a true number one spot and dominating on a weekly basis.
Robert Quinn doesn’t move the needle for me in fantasy except that he dampens the appeal of Haason Reddick and the other Eagles’ pass rushers.
Nyheim Hines joins the Bills, putting all three of Buffalo’s RBs under 210 pounds, easily the lightest RB room in the league. They get their power runs from their QB. They can win without a traditional running game, BUT last season, they had four games with under 100 rushing yards, and they lost all four. Any of the Bills’ RBs could have a 20-FP game and it wouldn’t shock me. What’s more likely is three RBs scoring between 5 and 15 FP every week.
Chase Claypool should score a shitload of fantasy points from Week 10 on. He’s big and fast and Fields loves to chuck that thing downfield. Think Jameis to Evans, minus 10-15%.
Hockenson to the Vikings is wild. He’s only 25, he’s a borderline superstar TE, and the Lions traded him to a division rival despite having nothing in the chamber behind him. It’s going to break their offense while perfecting the Vikings’. This hurts every fantasy manager with a Lion on offense and helps every fantasy manager with a Viking.
Chase Edmonds is a mixed bag at RB, but he’s joining an offense that was throwing the ball to Javonte Williams ten times a game. He could potentially lead the team in touches from now to the end of the season, which would make him a good flex.
Bradley Chubb leaving town has to make Oliver sad. The best thing about the Broncos was the defense. They had the Rams’ formula for elite defense, and they pissed it away for picks. Chubb’s history of missing games must have factored into it. For fantasy, I am way less afraid of this defense. I’m not sure I’m any more afraid of Miami’s while their secondary is still beat up.
Jeff Wilson is a Dolphin now, too, but it doesn’t matter until Mostert gets hurt. Evan has both of them, so it doesn’t matter to any of us at all.
The Steelers added William Jackson, who was very, very good before joining the Commanders. The Steelers are getting TJ Watt back after the bye, and this defense is about to return to greatness, which would be great for Najee Harris if he wasn’t ceding snaps to Jaylen Warren. The improved defense will lead to more carries, but the carries will continue to be split until Najee starts running harder.
And Zack Moss joins the Colts for some reason.
All right, let’s hand out midseason superlatives.
Best Overall Pick: Josh Allen. Evan took a big swing: first QB drafted top-five since Shelby took Cam Newton first overall. Through eight weeks, Josh Allen is the best player in fantasy football, with the most total points despite already having his bye week. Allen is averaging five more points per game than the next guy.
Worst 1st: Najee Harris. Spencer made a “safe” decision taking the every-down back for a Steelers team with a bad QB and a good defense. It’s not Spencer’s fault Najee is bad for fantasy, but it is his fault he picked Najee over Jefferson, Kupp, and Diggs, among others. Najee is currently 37th among RBs in average points per week, 130th among non-QBs.
Worst Overall Pick: Kyle Pitts in the 2nd wasn’t a terrible idea. Kyle Pitts over Kelce and Andrews was a terrible idea. This one is my fault. I believed so much that Andrews and Kelce would be picked before my 2nd that I tricked myself into believing Pitts belonged in a tier with them. Pitts is averaging seven points per week, with four weeks under four points and a missed game.
Best Value Pick QB: Jalen Hurts is 4th in QB points after being drafted 9th among QBs. Through eight weeks, he has five 30-FP games and a floor of 15 FP.
Best Value RB: Josh Jacobs was left for dead before Cameron begrudgingly took him in the back half of the 5th. Jacobs is averaging 22.5 FP per week, behind only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb.
Second Best Value RB: Dameon Pierce. I want to fucking die.
Third Best Value RB: Rhamondre Stevenson. Okay, breathe.
Best Value WR: Amon-Ra was running away with it before he hurt his ankle. Michael Thomas was on fire and is now out forever. Hollywood Brown took over until he hurt his… thing (I don’t care enough; he got hurt, is the point). Amari Cooper is the frontrunner now, with Chris Olave nipping at his heels and Jakobi Meyers of all people nipping at his. Let’s make this a team award so it’s easy.
Best Value WR Corps: Corey drafted Kupp at the 1-2 turn, Waddle at the 3-4, DeVonta at the 7-8, Lockett at the 11-12, Jakobi at the 17-18, and he picked up Devin Duvernay in free agency. Those WRs are ranked (respectively) 2nd, 7th, 38th, 28th, 16th, and 17th. DeVonta has been the least consistent but also had a 30-FP game already.
Best Value TE: Dallas Goedert can’t break into the top tier of TEs because he’ll never be his own team’s top target, but he’s easily the the third best TE in fantasy. Taysom Hill scores more points but does not actually play TE.
Worst Value QB: It’s a tie between Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, who are both hitting the age cliff despite being ten years apart. I don’t feel the need to elaborate.
Worst Value RB: Cam Akers went to Florida State, so it can’t be him. JK Dobbins is a guy who was injured when I drafted him, missed the first few games, had surgery, and now he’s out another 4-5 games. In four active games, Dobbins scored 5, 23, 9, and 1.5 FP. Ugh.
Worst Value WR: God, so many.
Worst Value TE: you already know.
Best IDP move: Maxx Crosby is scoring more FP than Micah Parsons, and Coleman has both. They are numbers one and two in overall IDP scoring so far. He got Parson in the 5th and Crosby in the 14th.
Worst IDP move: Kennedy drafted Shaq Leonard in the 7th. Leonard was hurt, likely to miss a game or two, but then there was hope he’d play Week 1. He missed two weeks, played like 15 snaps in Week 3, missed another month, and then Kennedy dropped him right before he played his first full game (on a snap count but still, started and finished the game). Kennedy is fine without Leonard, but I want him to think he isn’t in hopes the implacable distraction causes him to mismanage another position down the road.
Best K: Jason Myers is tied with Justin Tucker and Dan Carlson, but Myers was free.
Best First Half Team: Obviously Evan. He has the best record, the top QB, and the top RB. He has one top-10 WR and two others who will average 10+ FP per game the rest of the way. He gets to fill his flex spot with Miles Sanders’ 15 FP per game. His championship is inevitable.
Worst First Half Team: Obviously Brian. He is alone in last place and has scored 130 fewer FP than the next worst team. He’s won with scores of 105 and 117. He has plenty of talent. He can climb out of the basement. He can play spoiler. I would bet very hard against him making the playoffs. It would take a 5-1 finish just to get him in a tie for the 6-seed.
Best Trade: Sean gets Ja’Marr Chase for Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Williams.
Close Second: Coleman gets Dameon Pierce for AJ Dillon and Justin Tucker.
Most Cash: I’ve won back $30, and I plan to get my other $20, too.
There are six weeks left in our regular season. Brian rechristened his team “2 GB” with this in mind. Evan is one win away from clinching a playoff spot. Sean is two wins away, but I will not be surprised if he loses his next three games and finds himself back in the slush pile by December. Kennedy and Coleman are closer to the fringe right now but more likely to win these next few weeks. Fuck it, let’s do midseason power rankings.
1. Evan
2. Coleman
3. Kennedy
4. Doak
5. Cameron
6. Sean
7. Shelby
8. Corey
9. Spencer
10. Oliver
11. Max
12. Brian
Yes, I think my team is that good. Recency bias plays its part: I set this season’s high score with 203 FP last week. I’ve scored 150+ five times, 179+ four times (including three in a row), and under 120 three times. My only wins are my top three scoring weeks, two of the three highest scores in Mortydome this season. I expect to finish 7-7 and sneak into the 6-seed with the points tiebreaker. At that point, I’m a victim of variance. I could lose by 50 any week, but I could also go on a three-week heater and Cinderella this bitch.
Yes, I also think anything could happen with the eight teams crammed together in the power rankings. Sean could go 7-7 and lose the points tiebreaker. He could go 8-6 and lose the points tiebreaker if those bottom four teams sell out for draft picks early. Tom Brady could see a shaman during the Bucs’ bye week and drop nothing but 40s thereafter. The Cardinals could fire Kingsbury and finally let Kyler dictate that offense. Corey’s five-game schneid could law of averages itself into at least another three-game heater. Really, no one is safe behind those top three teams.
Here are the teams with two non-QBs averaging 20+ FP:
Doak – Henry (23.5) and Hopkins (22.1)
Oliver – CMC (20.3) and Saquon (19.9, close enough)
Here is the breakdown of RBs averaging 10+ FP:
Kennedy (64 FP) – Foreman (27), Ekeler (21), Lenny (16)
Doak (56 FP) – Henry, Stevenson (17), Gus (16)
Oliver (54 FP) – CMC, Saquon, Herbert (14)
Evan (53 FP) – Chubb (23), Sanders (17), Zeke (13)
Cam (52 FP) – Jacobs (22), Pollard (15), ETN (15)
Coleman (50 FP) – Kamara (18), Pierce (18), Walker (14)
Sean (47 FP) – Cook (18), Jam (18), Singletary (11)
Spencer (39 FP) – Jones (17), DMG (11), Najee (11)
Fart69 (28 FP) – Swift (15), CEH (13)
Max (24 FP) – Taylor (13), STA (11)
Corey (23 FP) – Gibson (13), J.Rob (10)
Shelby (14 FP) – Mixon
I used teams’ top three RBs to make the list, which only omitted the Dolphins (Evan) and Cardinals (Sean and Cameron). Obviosuly D’Onta Foreman’s stats are inflated by a two-week sample as starter, but it’s honestly not crazy for a player with his profile to average 18-20 FP and keep Kennedy atop the list.
Here are the WRs averaging 10+ FP:
Shelby (66) – Diggs (21), Boyd, JuJu (12), Jeudy (11)
Corey (51) – Kupp (21), Waddle (17), Meyers, Duvernay (13)
Cam (50) – Adams (14), Cooper (14), Deebo (12)
Doak (43) – Hopkins (22), Kirk (11), DK (10)
Coleman (43) – Jefferson (18), Olave (13), McLaurin (12)
Max (42) – STA (20), Gabe (12), Thielen (10)
Kennedy (40) – Hollywood (15), Lazard (14), DJ (11)
Spencer (37) – Evans (14), Higgins (12), Samuel (11)
Evan (28) – AJ Brown (16), Sun God (12)
Fart69 (25) – Lamb (13), Pittman (12)
Sean (18) – Chase
Oliver (11) – Aiyuk
Godwin missed the cutoff but will probably make the list in the second half. Mike Williams missed the cut because he won’t crack Cam’s starting lineup even when he gets healthy. Included Hollywood because he’ll be back for our playoffs and could realistically keep getting 10 targets per game even with Hopkins. Shelby and Corey get four WRs because they got it like that and they realistically will start four every week.
IDPs averaging 10+ FP:
Oliver (45) – Watt (24), Hicks (11), Mosley (10)
Sean (45) – Jewell (13), ZaDarius (11), Zaire (11), Bell (10)
Spencer (40) – Judon, Werner, Jackson, Poyer (10)
Coleman (37) – Maxx (13), Micah (13), Bolton (11)
Doak (33) – Sneed (12), Hufanga (11), Queen (10)
Cam (32) – Edwards (12), Garrett (10), Nwosu (10)
Kennedy (32) – Oluokun (12), Ramsey, J.Allen (10)
Evan (31) – H.Smith (11), Milano, Winfield (10)
Corey (21) – Minkah (11), N.Bosa (10)
Max (13) – Roquan
Shelby (11) – White
Fart69 (10) – Derwin
TEs and Ks averaging 10+ FP:
Corey (21) – Carlson (11), Hock (10)
Spencer (21) – Goedert (11), Succop (10)
Kennedy (20) – Dulcich, Gano (10)
Oliver (18) – Kelce
Max (15) – Taysom
Sean (13) – Andrews/Likely
Doak (11) – Tucker
Evan (11) – Myers
Shelby (10) – Kittle
No Brian, Coleman, or Cameron. No real meaning to the list anyway. Might give a slight edge to Corey, Spencer, Kennedy, and Oliver in the melee?
C’Mon over Jimmy (Higgins)
C.Guts over K.Mike (Kamara bad)
Roy returns over Goingback (bye weeks)
Pirates over Adventure (WRs)
Wrong over Rick (pure chaos)
100 over 2 (just math)
Good luck in the second half, unless you’re ahead of me in the standings right now, or if you’re behind me and have a chance to catch me. So in summary, good luck to me and Brian.
